AFC Divisional Buildup: Chargers vs. Pats

simplyeric

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Feb 14, 2006
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Fucking horrible.
This might sound weird but: if he plays this weekend, and playing this weekend gives him even a few minutes of respite from thinking about that, then please let it be so. Maybe he’ll even get a few hours of distraction or respite. And if he doesn’t play, well, I hope he can find solace over time.
 

E5 Yaz

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Fucking horrible.
This might sound weird but: if he plays this weekend, and playing this weekend gives him even a few minutes of respite from thinking about that, then please let it be so. Maybe he’ll even get a few hours of distraction or respite. And if he doesn’t play, well, I hope he can find solace over time.
He says that he will be playing.

Impossible to imagine what he's going through
 

CantKeepmedown

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Geez, they didn't mince many words when it came to Marlon McCree's INT/fumble. And Lorenzo Neal utters the phrase you hear when a lot of teams lose to the Pats......"if we played them 10 times, we'd win 9 of them". He admitted they were too arrogant and cocky. Good read. Is it Sunday yet?
 

DrewDawg

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Geez, they didn't mince many words when it came to Marlon McCree's INT/fumble.
McCree also had a rough 2018.

Former Jacksonville Jaguars safety Marlon McCree has been arrested in connection with a fraud scheme totaling nearly $78,000.

McCree is accused of submitting fraudulent doctor's certificates and letters to the Gene Upshaw Health Reimbursement Account (HRA) for the purpose of defrauding the fund, according to Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis
McCree was also arrested in April on unrelated domestic violence charges.

Our New4Jax partner reported Mcree was arrested on misdemeanor simple assault and felony aggravated battery charges, according to jail logs.
 

tims4wins

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Super Nomario

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Smart by LAC. Minimize a Pats strength while limiting their own weakness (they allowed by far the most kickoff returns in the league - 61; Pats were #2 at 42). They did cover KOs well this year, but having a better boot-it-out option makes a ton of sense. With 46-man rosters, burning a roster spot on a KO guy isn't a big deal at all.
 

RedOctober3829

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Boston Sports Info on Twitter is a great follow. They tweeted this stat out today. Look where Rivers ranks. That is why they need to blitz as much as they can to force mistakes on 3rd down. Of course, getting to 3rd and long is the key.

 

E5 Yaz

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Boston Sports Info on Twitter is a great follow. They tweeted this stat out today. Look where Rivers ranks. That is why they need to blitz as much as they can to force mistakes on 3rd down. Of course, getting to 3rd and long is the key.

Maybe I'm missing it, but I don't see where it shows the percentage of first downs made on those opportunities
 

simplyeric

aggressively nonsensical
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Boston Sports Info on Twitter is a great follow. They tweeted this stat out today. Look where Rivers ranks. That is why they need to blitz as much as they can to force mistakes on 3rd down. Of course, getting to 3rd and long is the key.
Chart suggests that LAC has had noticeably more 3rd and long situations than the Pats (74 times and 60, resp.)
Getting to 3rd and long is key, and seems (statistically) doable.
 

Super Nomario

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Maybe I'm missing it, but I don't see where it shows the percentage of first downs made on those opportunities
You can get that here:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=1&quarter[]=2&quarter[]=3&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=0&down[]=0&down[]=3&yds_to_go_min=7&yds_to_go_max=99&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=PASS&no_play=N&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&pass_location[]=SL&pass_location[]=SM&pass_location[]=SR&pass_location[]=DL&pass_location[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=yards

Pats as a team are 7th at 31% first downs, which includes 68 Brady dropbacks (60 passes, 8 sacks), one Hoyer attempt (complete, no first) and the ill-fated Tennessee pass to Brady. League average is about 26%.

The crazy thing: the Pats are terrible at converting 3rd-and-less-than-7 - just 39%, which ranks 30th (league average is 47%). It looks like the problem area is in the 3rd-and-4-to-6 range, where they rank 31st in first down percentage. Their rate is actually a bit lower than on 7+.
 

E5 Yaz

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The crazy thing: the Pats are terrible at converting 3rd-and-less-than-7 - just 39%, which ranks 30th (league average is 47%). It looks like the problem area is in the 3rd-and-4-to-6 range, where they rank 31st in first down percentage. Their rate is actually a bit lower than on 7+.
Thanks.

Just an eyeball thing, but could the 4-to-6 yard thing be where we're seeing the effects of Gronk's slowdown?
 

Super Nomario

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Thanks.

Just an eyeball thing, but could the 4-to-6 yard thing be where we're seeing the effects of Gronk's slowdown?
Maybe? He got only 4 targets in those situations last year but they went for 4 first downs. This year, it's 2 for 5. But White is only 6 for 14, Edelman 1 for 7, and Gordon 1 for 5.

We are deep in the SSS weeds so I hesitate to theorize too much because we are talking about stuff that could easily be statistical noise. But I think it's interesting that Brady hasn't been sacked at all in these situations (is he getting rid of the ball too soon?) and that he's thrown deep on 11 of 39 attempts, which is more often than you'd think given the situation. That tells me defenses are doing a good job taking away the short stuff and making Brady throw deep. They're only 2-for-11 on those deep passes. OTOH, they are 31st even if I just look at the short throws in that range. Again, SSS caveats; the difference between 31st and average is like 4 first downs.
 

ObstructedView

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Weather shaping up to be a non-factor: sunny and mid-20s with light winds. There had been a storm threat, but it seems clear now that it will stay well south.
 

simplyeric

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Weather shaping up to be a non-factor: sunny and mid-20s with light winds. There had been a storm threat, but it seems clear now that it will stay well south.
Except for the kicking game: hard, low-psi balls. (I mean, it's not single digits, but still)
 

CantKeepmedown

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Yeah, it was in the 50's in Baltimore. Mid 20's feels a lot different. Although they'll have a couple days to acclimate, as it's supposed to really cool down starting tomorrow.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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Given the Pats' extreme home-road splits this year, is it fair to just use their home numbers as a potential guide to this weekend's matchups? (and also, LA's road numbers)

Pats at home:
Points scored: 32.9
Points allowed: 16.6
Point differential: +16.3
1st Downs: 25.6
1st Downs allowed: 17.5
Rush yards: 156.8
Pass yards: 273.9
Total yards: 430.6
Rush yards allowed: 98.6
Pass yards allowed: 220.8
Total yards allowed: 319.4

Chargers on road (including wild card game):
Points scored: 27.2
Points allowed: 19.6
Point differential: +7.6
1st Downs: 19.8
1st Downs allowed: 20.4
Rush yards: 130.9
Pass yards: 220.3
Total yards: 351.2
Rush yards allowed: 102.6
Pass yards allowed: 234.4
Total yards allowed: 337.0

Just for fun, taking these two averages you end up with:
Patriots points: 26
Chargers points: 22
NE 1st downs: 23
LA 1st downs: 19
NE rush yards: 130
NE pass yards: 254
NE total yards: 384
LA rush yards: 115
LA pass yards: 221
LA total yards: 336
 

E5 Yaz

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Been watching this the last couple of days. Here's a real cold weather game in Foxboro

 

Riconway3155

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Been watching this the last couple of days. Here's a real cold weather game in Foxboro

I was at that game. Only event I have gone to that we tailgated inside the truck instead of out of it. I remember there being a guy a couple sections over with no shirt on for about 4 minutes until security made him put one back on. I have no idea how he did that.

I'll also be at the game on Sunday. Won't be as cold, but I hope the result will be the same!
 

InstaFace

MDLzera
Sep 27, 2016
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Wow, Seymour was sure, um, "active" that game. Dude was roid raging a half dozen different times that first half. A lot less disciplined than I remember him.
 

tims4wins

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I was at that game. Only event I have gone to that we tailgated inside the truck instead of out of it. I remember there being a guy a couple sections over with no shirt on for about 4 minutes until security made him put one back on. I have no idea how he did that.

I'll also be at the game on Sunday. Won't be as cold, but I hope the result will be the same!
I was there too. Was fortunate enough to tailgate with an electrician - we had an enclosed tent, portable generator, lights, and a space heater. Had it in the 50s inside the tent. Wasn't bad at all. Memorable night.
 

j44thor

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Just for fun, taking these two averages you end up with:
Patriots points: 26
Chargers points: 22
Finally you have figured out the secret to Vegas handicapping.
This is exactly how they have the score coming out when you take the point spread and O/U into consideration.
 

Mooch

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I was there too. Was fortunate enough to tailgate with an electrician - we had an enclosed tent, portable generator, lights, and a space heater. Had it in the 50s inside the tent. Wasn't bad at all. Memorable night.
I was there also. I still maintain that Vinatieri's 46 yard FG in the 4th quarter was the most incredible thing I've ever seen. Kicking the football was damned near impossible that day. Both punters struggled to get one even 30 yards and the kickers in pre-game were coming up short on anything inside of 35.
 

Cabin Mirror

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I was there also. I still maintain that Vinatieri's 46 yard FG in the 4th quarter was the most incredible thing I've ever seen. Kicking the football was damned near impossible that day. Both punters struggled to get one even 30 yards and the kickers in pre-game were coming up short on anything inside of 35.
They were warming the ball with the sideline heater at 1:45:48. Controversy!

I don't recall if the "k" balls were kept separate or not in those days. He was probably just warming his practice ball so he didn't break his foot.
 

Bunt4aTriple

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I drove down from Lewiston to meet an equally broke buddy. We parked two miles away in an auto body lot (my car would have fit in better at a salvage yard). Threw a 30 rack and a fifth of cinnamon schnapps in a backpack and headed for the lots. Dunks had trucks everywhere, so we would double fist coffees and bud lite slushies.

We were hoping to find a couple of extras among the tailgaters but eventually wandered by the box office where we were like 4th in line. Ended up with tickets on the 40, 20 rows behind the pats bench for $115 each.
 

Bowhemian

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I was also at that game. It was pretty cold, but I was dressed appropriately. And I kept all my clothes on. I bought a beer from a vendor when I got through the gate. The vendor checked my ID, but not sure how that dude knew that the ID was mine considering the fact that I was wearing a ski mask. But yeah, beer slushies
 

PC Drunken Friar

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Was at that game too. The Miller lite big bottles froze at the neck if you didn't drink it fast enough. Wearing so many clothes, tho, it was easy to sneak in a whole lot of Bailey's to go with hot chocolate.
 

wiffleballhero

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In the simulacrum
I was on the couch for that game, I had a wicked nice wood stove at the time. I was drinking red wine, I don't think my pipes froze and the cable signal held. It was glorious!

I am being only a little facetious. I love watching brutal weather football from the comfort of my warm living room. It is one of the small, cozy joys of winter. I would not go to the stadium for these games if it was in my back yard.
 

Fisks Of Fury

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Been watching this the last couple of days. Here's a real cold weather game in Foxboro

Wife and I were there. We "tailgated" by eating some subs in the car, and then went into the stadium with high-end sleeping bags. when we got to our seats, we each climbed in, zipped up and sat down. I'm sure we looked ridiculous, but we were relatively comfortable, and the people sitting around us up in section 317 were jealous.
 

Saints Rest

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There aren’t many games from 15 years ago that I can remember the details of watching, but that was one. My wife and I had driven to PA that morning to visit her sick aunt. Being out of the city with the car, we decided to do a mega grocery run before leaving. As we were finishing dinner, we all decided that a 3-hour drive in single digits at night wouldn’t be safe (our car was about 100 years old) so we would spend the night. This made me happy as I could watch the game on live TV (not DVR starting at 11pm). Funny part was that we realized that we had to bring in any of our liquid groceries (like soda or soup) so it wouldn’t freeze overnight.
 

alydar

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Also at that game, I remember the beer slushees well. Given that I was A Idiot back then, I’m surprised I didn’t lose any digits to frostbite, there’s no way I was properly prepared for that degree of cold.
 

DaveRoberts'Shoes

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I was on call as a resident for that one- the cold worked in my favor because it was too cold for anyone to go outside and break anything. Got to watch it from the warmth of my call room