A Time to Worry: Celtics Postseason Concerns

wade boggs chicken dinner

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That said, I think it's a good idea to get Tatum some rest over the next few weeks. Brad Stevens has said they're going to do exactly that, and he made that statement well before the post-All Star break struggles. He also said it's important that Tatum gets a certain number of high-minute games. It sounds like the theory, either his or JT's, is that you can't just go from averaging 35 minutes a night to 42 minutes in the playoffs. You have to build up that stamina over time.
IIRC, Ime said the same thing last year - that in order to get JT and JB ready for the playoffs, they were going to ramp up their minutes in games they played but they would sit them down the stretch to make sure they were rested. I posted this in one or another thread a while back but I think JT played in 10 games over the last 30 days of the season prior to the MIA series.
 

benhogan

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IIRC, Ime said the same thing last year - that in order to get JT and JB ready for the playoffs, they were going to ramp up their minutes in games they played but they would sit them down the stretch to make sure they were rested. I posted this in one or another thread a while back but I think JT played in 10 games over the last 30 days of the season prior to the MIA series.
Yea, there were some good points in regard to the Tatum season minutes ramp-up/ramp-down approach about a month ago.

Not sure if it was you Wade, but someone had compared it to how a marathon/endurance runner approaches training.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yea, there were some good points in regard to the Tatum season minutes ramp-up/ramp-down approach about a month ago.

Not sure if it was you Wade, but someone had compared it to how a marathon/endurance runner approaches training.
Wasn't me but I agree it's a good parallel. When training for a marathon, you want to run a 20 miler pretty close (10-14 days) to the actual marathon so your body knows what it's like to get that far and then taper down. You don't want to be running 10 miles twice a week right up to the actual marathon.
 

benhogan

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This is partly me over-reacting because 3s went down, but:

The Celtics made an obvious effort from the jump last night to hit the paint, rather than pass around the perimeter for 3s. Whenever I see that early, I feel good about the rest of the game, win or lose, because it indicates the process and effort are going to be there.

Obviously a lot of 3s fell, but I liked the process to get them. They were generally higher quality than the 3s Cleveland took.

No one expects the Celtics to go fo-fo-fo, but I like their chances in a 7-game series with this process.
Go to the 5-minute mark for Brown quotes, in regards to paint touches, with Karalis. This group knows what it needs to do

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xh4cWMZyiNQ
 

Jimbodandy

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This is partly me over-reacting because 3s went down, but:

The Celtics made an obvious effort from the jump last night to hit the paint, rather than pass around the perimeter for 3s. Whenever I see that early, I feel good about the rest of the game, win or lose, because it indicates the process and effort are going to be there.

Obviously a lot of 3s fell, but I liked the process to get them.
FWIW, that's what I saw too. Even when it sometimes wasn't really there, they were trying to get on a line and challenge the rim. It seemed like a recommitment to the philosophy for most of the game.
 

lovegtm

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FWIW, that's what I saw too. Even when it sometimes wasn't really there, they were trying to get on a line and challenge the rim. It seemed like a recommitment to the philosophy for most of the game.
Yeah, this goes with something I said here after the Knick game, which is that 1Q is when a team like Boston should be emphasizing paint touches early, because it's fresh in your mind, you're not tired, etc. When they don't do it from the jump, it's worrying.

To be fair, having Jaylen helps a lot in that regard.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Their BY FAR best player is at least 6'11"?
What stuck out to me is that each of these players put so much pressure on the defense going to the rim that it is advantageous to the defending team when they shoot 3’s despite hitting at a high rate.
 

JM3

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Taking the ones listed above & adding every other team with a winning record so far...

Celtics 25-0 (100%)
Bucks 18-2 (90%)
Grizzlies 16-2 (88.9%)
Nuggets 22-4 (84.6%)
Nets 19-4 (82.6%)
Kings 17-5 (77.3%)
76ers 21-7 (75%)
Clippers 19-7 (73.1%)
Mavs 16-6 (72.7%)
Warriors 20-9 (69.0%)
Cavs 15-7 (68.2%)
Knicks 11-6 (64.7%)
Heat 5-3 (62.5%)
Suns 12-10 (54.5%)
 

128

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My biggest concern stretches well past this offseason. If it wasn't clear already, I think it's become obvious this season that C's can't count on Rob to be the long-term answer at the 5. How Brad can remedy the situation, I'm not sure, but running this frontcourt back in 2023-24 would not be a good idea, IMO.
 

BaseballJones

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First 26 games:
- 21-5 record (.808, 66 win pace)
- Avg points scored: 120.8
- Avg points allowed: 112.0
- Avg point diff: +7.2

Last 39 games:
- 24-15 record (.615, 50 win pace)
- Avg points scored: 115.6
- Avg points allowed: 112.6
- Avg point diff: +3.0

The first 26 games Celtics were an absolute juggernaut. The last 39 games Celtics have been a good, solid, NBA team. I mean, there are only currently 4 teams in the NBA with a winning percentage of .615 or better: Mil (.719), Den (.703), Bos (.692), and Phi (.651). So the last 39 games Celtics would still be a top-5 team in the NBA. It just feels like it's SUCH a huge step down from where they were, mainly because....it is.

They've gone from being the hands-down best team in the league with really no holes to a top-5 team in the league with some real cracks in the armor.

Even their last 18 games:
- 10-8 (.555, 46 win pace)
- Avg points scored: 115.6
- Avg points allowed: 112.8
- Avg point diff: +2.8

Even that is still a solid NBA team. But clearly one that could make either a deep run in the playoffs OR get knocked out in the first round.

Things obviously can change, but right now here's the road the Celtics are looking at, if the season ended today:

(2) Bos vs. (7) Mia
(2) Bos vs. (3) Phi
(2) Bos vs. (1) Mil

I know they've handled Philly, and Miami isn't as good as they were last year, but I'm sorry - that's a difficult path to the NBA Finals. You KNOW that Miami will bring it in a playoff series. And Philly is very tough even if they appear to be a favorable matchup for the Celtics.
 

bosockboy

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First 26 games:
- 21-5 record (.808, 66 win pace)
- Avg points scored: 120.8
- Avg points allowed: 112.0
- Avg point diff: +7.2

Last 39 games:
- 24-15 record (.615, 50 win pace)
- Avg points scored: 115.6
- Avg points allowed: 112.6
- Avg point diff: +3.0

The first 26 games Celtics were an absolute juggernaut. The last 39 games Celtics have been a good, solid, NBA team. I mean, there are only currently 4 teams in the NBA with a winning percentage of .615 or better: Mil (.719), Den (.703), Bos (.692), and Phi (.651). So the last 39 games Celtics would still be a top-5 team in the NBA. It just feels like it's SUCH a huge step down from where they were, mainly because....it is.

They've gone from being the hands-down best team in the league with really no holes to a top-5 team in the league with some real cracks in the armor.

Even their last 18 games:
- 10-8 (.555, 46 win pace)
- Avg points scored: 115.6
- Avg points allowed: 112.8
- Avg point diff: +2.8

Even that is still a solid NBA team. But clearly one that could make either a deep run in the playoffs OR get knocked out in the first round.

Things obviously can change, but right now here's the road the Celtics are looking at, if the season ended today:

(2) Bos vs. (7) Mia
(2) Bos vs. (3) Phi
(2) Bos vs. (1) Mil

I know they've handled Philly, and Miami isn't as good as they were last year, but I'm sorry - that's a difficult path to the NBA Finals. You KNOW that Miami will bring it in a playoff series. And Philly is very tough even if they appear to be a favorable matchup for the Celtics.
In the careful what you wish for category, avoiding Cavs or Knicks in round 2 could be worth being the 2 seed. Both seem to be poor matchups.
 

BaseballJones

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I'd say that the East is filled with landmines for the Celtics:

- Milwaukee obviously is great
- Philly is very tough
- Cleveland and NY seem to be tough matchups
- Miami has Bam and Butler and are always tough outs
- Even the Nets can give you fits

But in the West, right now, I'm looking at this juicy 1st round matchup: (4) Phoenix vs. (5) Golden State. That will be fun if that's the matchup.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'd say that the East is filled with landmines for the Celtics:

- Milwaukee obviously is great
- Philly is very tough
- Cleveland and NY seem to be tough matchups
- Miami has Bam and Butler and are always tough outs
- Even the Nets can give you fits

But in the West, right now, I'm looking at this juicy 1st round matchup: (4) Phoenix vs. (5) Golden State. That will be fun if that's the matchup.
Yeah, poor Nuggets. Their reward for their great season is probably going to be the defending champ or the Suns with the Durant boost pack.
 

lovegtm

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Looks like I jinxed the season by making this thread.

Wrt playoff matchups: you can usually make an argument why any non-8 seed is a tough matchup. The 2018 Cs had to play a 7 seed with Giannis in the first round.

At a certain point, you have to worry more about just being a good team yourself (or not).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Looks like I jinxed the season by making this thread.

Wrt playoff matchups: you can usually make an argument why any non-8 seed is a tough matchup. The 2018 Cs had to play a 7 seed with Giannis in the first round.

At a certain point, you have to worry more about just being a good team yourself (or not).
8th seed could very well be TOR, which I expect to be a tough out (with the emphasis on out). In addition, TOR could jump past MIA, making MIA the 8th seed and if there's any team that knows how to play MIL< it's MIA (the two teams being 2-2 on the season, MIA winning the first two in JAN and losing the second 2 during MIL's winning streak).
 

chilidawg

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Wrt playoff matchups: you can usually make an argument why any non-8 seed is a tough matchup. The 2018 Cs had to play a 7 seed with Giannis in the first round.

At a certain point, you have to worry more about just being a good team yourself (or not).
Yup. It's gonna be hard. That's why championships are so satisfying.
 

Auger34

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8th seed could very well be TOR, which I expect to be a tough out (with the emphasis on out). In addition, TOR could jump past MIA, making MIA the 8th seed and if there's any team that knows how to play MIL< it's MIA (the two teams being 2-2 on the season, MIA winning the first two in JAN and losing the second 2 during MIL's winning streak).
I just really, really hope that the Celtics don’t play the Heat in Rd 1. I would be completely shocked if they lost to the Heat but you know it will be a long, tough, physical series. Fingers crossed that we can somehow get Atlanta or Washington
 

Bernard Gilkey baby

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I wish Tatum’s sneakers had a Celtics green option. Maybe he’s been distracted by that unforced error.
 

lovegtm

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8th seed could very well be TOR, which I expect to be a tough out (with the emphasis on out). In addition, TOR could jump past MIA, making MIA the 8th seed and if there's any team that knows how to play MIL< it's MIA (the two teams being 2-2 on the season, MIA winning the first two in JAN and losing the second 2 during MIL's winning streak).
Yes, you can make the argument even stronger by noting that even 8 seeds can be very tough outs. The postseason is hard unless you are the 2018 Warriors. Even the 2008 Cs almost lost in the 2nd round.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yes, you can make the argument even stronger by noting that even 8 seeds can be very tough outs. The postseason is hard unless you are the 2018 Warriors. Even the 2008 Cs almost lost in the 2nd round.
Shit, they almost lost in the first round. Had to go 7 against Average Al’s Hawks. Of course, it led to KG destroying Pachulia on a screen so it was definitely worth it.
 

kfoss99

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Shit, they almost lost in the first round. Had to go 7 against Average Al’s Hawks. Of course, it led to KG destroying Pachulia on a screen so it was definitely worth it.
I can't remember anything, but I still remember that screen. Boy, did Pachulia deserve it. I was upset Garnett got called for a foul, because it was a clean.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Yes, you can make the argument even stronger by noting that even 8 seeds can be very tough outs. The postseason is hard unless you are the 2018 Warriors. Even the 2008 Cs almost lost in the 2nd round.
*2017 (the 2018 version stumbled into a 3-2 hole in the WCF v. the Rockets, and might have been bounced had CP3 not pulled his hammy). But totally agreed.
 

ifmanis5

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Courtesy Jed Zep who is right:
Totally forgotten how to impose their will on a game with any consistency.
Al comes and goes since he is old. Smart looks broken down and has reverted to terrible shot selection. Grant is a shell of himself. TL doesn't play. This team is currently a mess. Not sure the coach can get this figured out either.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Courtesy Jed Zep who is right:

Al comes and goes since he is old. Smart looks broken down and has reverted to terrible shot selection. Grant is a shell of himself. TL doesn't play. This team is currently a mess. Not sure the coach can get this figured out either.
Were they a mess each of the last two games when they have some motivation to get up for the game? Game thread panic post…..I hope.
 

128

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Were they a mess each of the last two games when they have some motivation to get up for the game? Game thread panic post…..I hope.
Clearly you're not watching this debacle in Houston. This is as uninterested as the C's have looked all season, which is saying something.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Clearly you're not watching this debacle in Houston. This is as uninterested as the C's have looked all season, which is saying something.
I posted on it in betting thread earlier. It was an ideal flat spot for C’s but think they close it out bc Houston aren’t usually closers.
 

Cellar-Door

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I honestly think they need to consider sitting down Smart. I get it, he's a big personality on the team, but his defense has regressed a lot to the point that White is better on that end and Brogdon isn't too far behind Smart. On offense both those guys are better shooters and have much better shot selection. Also.. we're getting killed on the boards, Brogdon is a good PG rebounder, White isn't as good, but still well above Marcus who is literally the worst rebounder on the team, and one of the worst in the league.
 

Helmet Head

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As frustrating as Grant is, I think it’s really important to try to get him right and confident moving forward. He is a really good defender and can defend multiple positions, which is something this team desperately needs right now. That and a healthy Robert Williams, which is likely not happening this season.
 

Auger34

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I still think this team is capable of winning it all and I’m not giving up but I don’t fault anyone for panicking. They do not look like a good team right now. It appears as if they are losing steam at the worst possible time
 

kieckeredinthehead

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They're 12-9 since January 23rd. They've lost to Orlando, Miami, NYK (x3), Phoenix, Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Cleveland, and Houston. They've lost blowouts and they've lost in OT. They've lost because they couldn't hit a barn and they've lost because their opponents were 60% from three. They've lost because of the refs. They've lost because Tatum is tired or because Tatum has had too much time off. They lost because they can't rebound. Too many turnovers. Not enough Kornet. Bad timeouts. No timeouts. Schedule losses. Back-to-back losses. They've been playing like a mediocre team for almost two months. They're clearly talented enough to play much, much better, and maybe they turn it on down the stretch. Or once they get in the playoffs. I'm surprised anybody could have watched the past month and a half and think they're playing better than their record. .571 is a 5 or 6 seed, which is exactly how they've looked in that time. Capable of beating the best teams on any given night, but unlikely to do so 4 out of 7 with one on the road.

Lot of wins the first half of the season that they "would have lost last year." Seeing a lot more of those losses recently.
 

128

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Classic Simmons hyperbole. They aren't a juggernaut but they still have as a good shot as any of the top 5 teams in the league. Depth, Smart, and CJM are obviously worrisome right now but get a grip... we're not Memphis.
The C's, the way they've been scuffling, have as good a shot as the Bucks?
 

HomeRunBaker

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The C's, the way they've been scuffling, have as good a shot as the Bucks?
As of this morning, the Celtics are either co-favorites with the Bucks or favored over the Bucks depending which book you’re looking at.
 

128

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As of this morning, the Celtics are either co-favorites with the Bucks or favored over the Bucks depending which book you’re looking at.
In what world would someone pick a C's team without a healthy Time Lord over the full-strength Bucks? Maybe I'm missing something. Do regular-season games no longer matter?

You're quick to dismiss anyone who dares suggest that the C's are not a juggernaut, but this clearly is not the same team that ran roughshod through the rest of the NBA early in the season. Maybe the C's get their mojo back in time for the playoffs, but that's far from a sure thing.

I'd rather be playing well as the playoffs approach, as the C's were last season, than be stumbling into the postseason.
 

Auger34

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As of this morning, the Celtics are either co-favorites with the Bucks or favored over the Bucks depending which book you’re looking at.
I am surprised by this but not shocked. Books are counting on a healthy TL in the playoffs
 

brendan f

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People seem to be dismissing TL as someone who is not as good as his former self. If you look at his numbers, they are all in line with his previous output, except block rate, which is down but still good. His on/off is still excellent. I can understand how the eye test shows he's looked less bouncy/agile but he's still a tremendous asset to the team. The Celtics are clearly being very cautious with him in hopes he will be good to go for a playoff run.