Again I don't understand you. If the season ended today, they'd be in the playoffs. By definition that means they are in the race.
A Time for Choosing: Are the Red Sox going to make the playoffs?
- Thread starter BringBackMo
- Start date
Eck's right. The O's aren't lambs this year. They have a -40 run differential, better than 9 other teams, while playing the toughest schedule in baseball. 37 of their 56 games have been against teams with a winning record, and that will just keep going with the unbalanced schedule. I know we're all used to seeing them get crushed, but a sweep is no longer an expectation when playing them.
I think that they can but they do have 44 games against NYY, Toronto, and Tampa Bay combined. Its going to come down to how well they play those three. If they get rolled over like they did in April, there are two problems...
1) They have to dominate the rest of the schedule (which also includes 11 games against Baltimore who seems to have their number this year).
2) Those three teams are the ones that they'll most likely see in the playoffs. If they can't figure out how to beat them while playing against them 19 games apiece, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle multiple times might be too much.
This team is multiple players away from being serious WS contenders. Instead, to me, the game plan should be to build from within and hope the prospects can add value and hope that Paxton and Sale can contribute. In other words, someone hide Chaim's cell phone two weeks before the trading deadline.
1) They have to dominate the rest of the schedule (which also includes 11 games against Baltimore who seems to have their number this year).
2) Those three teams are the ones that they'll most likely see in the playoffs. If they can't figure out how to beat them while playing against them 19 games apiece, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle multiple times might be too much.
This team is multiple players away from being serious WS contenders. Instead, to me, the game plan should be to build from within and hope the prospects can add value and hope that Paxton and Sale can contribute. In other words, someone hide Chaim's cell phone two weeks before the trading deadline.
"If the season ended today" is, no offense, one of the stupidest rationales ever made in any argument, because it doesn't, it won't, and it never will. The season ends after Game 162. If it ends sooner, it means something bad probably happened.
If a frog had wings, it wouldn't bump its ass when it hopped. But it doesn't, so it does. Sunrise, sunset.
Since their 3-22 start, the Reds are 16-13. Like the Sox, they started poorly but they don't appear to have given up or stopped trying.
Keep moving the goalposts. You say the Sox aren’t in the race when they have a better record than 9 teams, which is the requirement to make the playoffs. What is your definition of “in it”?
I've cited this stat before and it's by no means a deep one, but by Baseball Reference's Simple Rating System, which factors run differential and strength of schedule, the Red Sox are tied for second best in the AL with the Jays and Astros. Only the Yankees are better.
I don't think they're that far away from being serious post-season contenders.
If Paxton/Sale ramp up and are available by the postseason, they'd certainly have a legit starting rotation and a decent BP with the current roster. The trade for a single ace reliever arm can change the whole picture of the staff. Even someone like Taylor coming back displaces a weak link.
As far as the offense goes, it's pretty legit. We're weak at 1B, C, and the OF. Realistically, there's not much one can do about C, and that's fine. However, if Franchy has found a viable batting strategy, we have a credible RF or a lite-1B. Dalbec/Casas might fill in by September. For the OF, there's a possibility of development with Verdugo, Duran, and Enrique Hernandez getting hot again. The Sox can always trade for a Schwarber type bat late in the season.
So - if they make the post-season, a trade for a BP arm and a single bat might be all they need to compete there. Or they get lucky with some development and resurgence. They don't need to be there at this moment.
Probably best for another thread but the stretch starting June 24th (or June 27th) is going to be a good benchmark as to what this team needs. Yeah we're weak in some areas now... but when we were playing what is currently the top three in the AL East, we were weak in most, if not all, areas. The pre-All Star Game stretch is going to tell us if it was Boston just going through a bad stretch that coincided with the start of the season or if the match ups don't favor the Sox.
I was about to post something agreeing with the "mediocre competition" sentiment in this thread, but, after looking into it a little more deeply, I think some of you might be underestimating these other teams? Cleveland in particular - on paper at least - looks better than some of you are suggesting, they have a similar pythag to the Twins' (pending today's game, obv), they have some competent hitters surrounding Ramirez in the lineup, and they've always got good starting pitching. Chicago has had a rough go with injuries, but they'll probably be better once some of those players start coming back. Texas is hovering just below .500 despite underperformance from their big fancy FA acquisition, so they might have some untapped upside. And Seattle has dealt with both injuries (Lewis, Haniger) and underperformance (Ray, Winker), yet they're not that far out of it and they've won three consecutive series after I buried them in my AaT thread. And as alluded to above, a run from one of those teams might punt the Twins or (way less likely) Houston in the WC race. I'm inclined to think the Red Sox are still probably better than most of those other teams, but I'm not willing to make any declarations yet.
The Angels, though, are frauds until they prove otherwise.
The Angels, though, are frauds until they prove otherwise.
Essentially what they needed/got last year (Schwarber + Robles/Davis) when they got within two games of the World Series. That feels encouraging.
We’re also looking at a real sellers’ market at the deadline this year, and going forward, with the extra WC. I think that’s probably better for the sport. Deadline deals for very good players have netted light returns lately. But it’ll probably cost more than Aldo Ramirez to get this year’s Schwarber, more than one Scherff for a Robles, etc.
After flipping a coin I voted no. My gut feeling is that they are sticking to the rebuild and in a sellers market will move some short term contracts for near MLB ready talent. If that means dealing Xander, then make the move. That's maybe when we start to see AAA guys come up. If you win with them, great. If you lose, the offseason is your oyster. It's still possible (and I hope they do so) to add and subtract and still sneak in as well, but taking a small step backwards could leave them on the outside.
They are currently at 48% to get in per Fangraphs and a 1.7% chance of winning it all and also aren't the only team with chips and internal options.
They are currently at 48% to get in per Fangraphs and a 1.7% chance of winning it all and also aren't the only team with chips and internal options.
You think they'll trade away their short-term contracts like X (and/or JD, Eovaldi, Kike, Wacha, Hill, etc) even if they're in contention for a playoff spot come mid/late July? That would be a bold move. I could certainly see moving someone like Hill (the Rays did it last year) to pick up a lottery ticket and simultaneously clear room for Sale or Paxton or Bello. I just can't see them even giving the appearance of punting this season by trading key players away while in the thick of a playoff race. They don't have any prospects showing anything in Worcester who could slide right into a vacated lineup spot and hope to maintain a playoff caliber team.
It would really depend on what contention meant. If it's within 3 games of a the 3rd wild card slot, I don't see them standing pat or adding. Would the fanbase care that much if they were an 83 win team? They don't need to add lottery tickets, they need to add talent which isn't going to be from free agency. If they are on pace to be a 95 win team and have a shot to reach the World Series then maybe they finish the rebuild a few months early.
After witnessing how some fans here melted down when they started 10-19 (and are still apparently angry with a 28-27 record), yes, I think the fanbase would care if they were full-on sellers at the deadline when they're within striking distance of a playoff spot.
I think we will end up with the #2 WC. We will sure up the bullpen at the deadline and pass the Rays.
I guess it comes down to more what I think they do vs what I hope they do. I would hope it's the latter but realize that could be a stretch.
Regardless, June 27th through August 1st is brutal and I think they'll be .500ish and sellers.
Baseball Ref simulations give Sox a 57 percent chance of a wildcard right now. Their most likely scenario is AL East running the table. Next in AL is Minnesota at 12.6 percent.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-playoff-odds.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-playoff-odds.shtml
This isn’t true. They’re 18-8 in the past 26 games. They are 6-4 against 5th place teams, 12-4 against all others. 8-4 against teams that are 3rd place or better. The idea that they just beat up on the worst teams and that’s why they’re back in it is just factually wrong, especially since they went 3-4 against the Orioles and Reds
Cautiously pessimistic.
I think they end up 7th after SP (Wacha, Pivetta, Hill) regresses to the mean and JD fails to stay at .350
I think they end up 7th after SP (Wacha, Pivetta, Hill) regresses to the mean and JD fails to stay at .350
What does regressing to the mean look like for Pivetta and Hill? Hill has a 95 era+, last year he put up a 104 in 158 innings. Pivetta is better than last year, but not ridiculously so, 119 era+ this year, 104 last year. Yes Wacha will likely regress, but they also have Sale and Paxton waiting in the wings if he struggles too much.
And yeah JD will probably regress a little, but he's had full seasons this good not that long ago, he isn't going to turn into a scrub.
Now that the offense is performing up to where you'd expect and the starting pitching has been consistently good, I'm going to go with yes.
I don't think they're going to make it far, though. This team still feels very flawed to me, and if not for the expanded playoff field they would not be in it. At the beginning of the year, I thought this was a .500 team, and I think now they might be a little better based on the unexpectedly good starting rotation. But I think that, as a few others have mentioned, that late June - early August schedule is going to keep them from making any ground on where they are now.
I don't think they're going to make it far, though. This team still feels very flawed to me, and if not for the expanded playoff field they would not be in it. At the beginning of the year, I thought this was a .500 team, and I think now they might be a little better based on the unexpectedly good starting rotation. But I think that, as a few others have mentioned, that late June - early August schedule is going to keep them from making any ground on where they are now.
They're 4 games behind Tor/TB. Even under the most recent format, that would be far from out of it. But, yeah, that schedule is tough. Hopefully they'll be playing like they are now, and not like they were when they played those teams the first time.
Yeah but the Rays and Jays also have to play each other, etc. They also have hard schedules. It's going to be an AL East bloodbath.
Blue Jays still Pitt Cubs and Phillies while we have the Cardinals and Braves
Rays still have Pitt and Miami
Ours I think is tougher
https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remaining_schedule_strength
Sox have the 2nd toughest at .531 (1st in AL)
Rays are 3rd at .530 (2nd in AL)
Jays are 17th at .499 (7th in AL)
Major advantage Jays
Totally fair point, I didn't realize they were quite that close to them at this point. I'm definitely not on the hater train and don't want to make them sound worse than they are. I feel like it'll all likely come down to the wire for how exactly things are seeded.
I always take those "toughest schedule" things with a grain of salt with 100 games left. Two weeks go, the Sox appeared to have an even tougher schedule because they were about to play the 27-17 Angels. Later in the season, when "who's good and who isn't" has sorted out some, it might be more useful.
A little disappointed that some of our more prolific and energetic naysayers have yet to go on the record with a vote. But there's still plenty of time.
I think the "if the season ended today" argument is much more sound than the "well they're techhhhhnically in a playoff spot today but what this post presupposes is maybe they aren't?" argument. Paraphrasing the noted philosopher Jimy Williams isn't helping either.
I've got to ask... and it's reframing the question that starts with "if the season ended today", but with a twist...
If the season ended today, we'd most likely see NYY in the early round. Can we beat them in a short series? We could. If we get past them, can we get past Toronto / TB in a short series? I think we could (as I tend to not rule out anything where the Sox are concerned), but it would be more in the mode of catching lightning in a bottle twice as opposed to the idea that they could be consistently competitive against the teams currently in the playoff hunt.
I'm kind of mixed in the regards of making a choice between seeing them make the playoffs and have an early exit vs. not making the playoffs at all. A lot of that is having seen the last few years of Lou Gorman as GM where they would pull out all the stops at the trading deadline just so they could be good enough to get swept in the first round.
I think you misunderstand how the current playoff format works: the 3rd wild card (#6 seed) draws the worst division winner (#3 seed, almost always the Central winner) in a best of 3 series entirely at the stadium of the higher seed. The top seeds (currently NYY/HOU) get byes into the divisional round.
So if the current standings hold, the Red Sox would actually avoid the rest of the AL East until the ALCS, it's a much easier road on paper than that of the #4 or #5 seeds (yes, this is a major design flaw by MLB).
Yeah, it looks like we’d see the Twins. MLB tweeted out a hypothetical bracket earlier today.
View: https://twitter.com/mlb/status/1534557953587568643?s=21&t=V9nb_Bkfp3gMxtJk6e584A
Thank you both... yeah. That actually is a tougher road for TB and Toronto than the Sox. Tank for the Twins!!!
Are you discounting the success of the 20 other teams who have played a weaker schedule so far than the Sox? The Yankees swept the Angels, Tigers and Orioles (twice). The Blue Jays just won 8 straight against the Angels and White Sox (and one vs StL). And so on. All the current playoff teams have fattened up on the lower ones at some point, which is why "if the season ended today" is shorthand for "what have we learned from the first third of the season," which is a pretty good indicator.