A Time for Choosing: Are the Red Sox going to make the playoffs?

Will the Red Sox make the playoffs

  • Yes

    Votes: 203 72.5%
  • No

    Votes: 77 27.5%

  • Total voters
    280

BringBackMo

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The Sox started out very poorly, to the dreadful tune of 10-19. Some posters called for the firing of Bloom and Cora because of the results. Then the Sox started playing quite well. They're currently 17-8 in their last 25. Some of us see a team that was expected to compete for a playoff spot at last rounding into form. Others of us see a team that is beating up on cupcakes and can't be trusted to continue its winning ways. Every Sox thread seems to be weighed down with a lot of "yes, but, what if the bats suddenly go silent again?" comments.

The Sox have now completed exactly 1/3 of their schedule. Their record stands at 27-27 and they currently sit in the third wildcard spot. We have a big enough sample size and now is the time to go on the record. Will the Red Sox make the playoffs?

I remain very much in the yes category. This is how I put it on May 2, when they were playing some of their worst ball of the season:
Verdugo, Story, and Hernandez will all start hitting. Dalbec will get hot for his 6 to 8 week stretch. Sale and Paxton will pitch in the second half. The Sox will win one of the three wild cards.
So give me the keys. I'm driving the Red Sox playoff bus. Where do you stand?
 

tims4wins

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Ironically I think their chances are better than what I expected pre season despite the team being slightly worse or maybe at the same level as I expected, due to how the AL is shaping up. I voted they make it
 

BroodsSexton

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Sure, why not. Better to root for them to make it then to fail.

(typo noticed, but left because it amuses me).
 
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joe dokes

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Yes.
Because: 1) howthefuckdoIknow is not a choice; and b) saying "no" now is ludicrisp; and 4)because I think they will.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Boston has to play NYY TB and TOR a bunch all second half

CLE CWS LAA TEX SEA all have easy divisions

Their cushion is not going to be large enough to keep a spot
 

Coachster

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I voted no, but only because if they can't shore up the bullpen, they are going to lose a lot of games 10-7, when they were ahead 7-5 in the 7th.

I don't believe Paxton will ever appear this season, and I believe the Sale we'll get won't be recognizable as the 'Chris Sale' we knew or hoped for. So much for moving Whitlock, Hill and/ or Wacha into middle relief.

Don't get me wrong; I'd love it if we kept playing well and got there. It's a long season and I want meaningful baseball in September/ October. However, the trepidation I feel when our starters reach 100 pitches isn't going away. It truly is smoke and mirrors in the pen.

Here: Our song for the rest of the season...
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlWx1LthL3M
 
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DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Yes.
Because: 1) howthefuckdoIknow is not a choice; and b) saying "no" now is ludicrisp; and 4)because I think they will.
I'm really curious what III was going to be.

Now you're making me feel bad for voting no. I viewed the question as a proxy for the real question: Is there a piece or pieces that can stabilize the bullpen and get people into assigned roles where they will flourish? To me that's really the question, and I'm skeptical about it.
 

Rovin Romine

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I voted Yes. There's always volatility, but I think the core is there. And I think if they have a chance to make the post season, they'll add pieces.
 

Bergs

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I voted yes, because after a horrendous start, we are in position to be the 3rd WC team. Why not?
 

nvalvo

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I think it's going to be pretty close, but I'd say yes.

The biggest thing wrong with the team is the bullpen, and we have resources (in minor league pitchers, in SP returning from the IL) with which we could potentially make improvements.

edit: Also, they have a better run differential than every AL team except the Yankees and Astros. Now, underperforming one's run differential is something teams with bad bullpens do, but I'm imagining that Bloom and company are aware that they are a few bullpen pieces away from at least the semblance of a contender here.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'm really curious what III was going to be.

Now you're making me feel bad for voting no. I viewed the question as a proxy for the real question: Is there a piece or pieces that can stabilize the bullpen and get people into assigned roles where they will flourish? To me that's really the question, and I'm skeptical about it.
There wasn’t even a 2) there! I voted yes and think they have the existing team to at least win a 1st round.
IF Sale/Paxton can return and beeven a close approximation of their former selves then they can go deep
 

nvalvo

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I'm really curious what III was going to be.

Now you're making me feel bad for voting no. I viewed the question as a proxy for the real question: Is there a piece or pieces that can stabilize the bullpen and get people into assigned roles where they will flourish? To me that's really the question, and I'm skeptical about it.
IMO yes. I think that there are a few resources we have. We actually have relief prospects pitching well in the high minors — i.e. Frank German — and a few other minor league SP who may be worth serious consideration for a relief role (i.e. Chris Murphy).

We also have a couple interesting mid-tier prospects who are a) interesting, b) on the cusp of requiring 40-man protection this winter, and c) plausible rule five selections, among them Thaddeus Ward, Kaleb Ort, Ceddanne Rafaela, Ryan Fitzgerald, Connor Seabold, or David Hamilton. We likely can't keep all of them, and you might be able to get a respectable setup man for a few guys in that tier, maybe along with someone younger.

Tejay Antone of the Reds would be a target I would look at.
 

BringBackMo

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I don't believe Paxton will ever appear this season, and I believe the Sale we'll get won't be recognizable as the 'Chris Sale' we knew or hoped for. So much for moving Whitlock, Hill and/ or Wacha into middle relief.
Oh.
Sale remains on schedule to throw a bullpen Tuesday in Florida before facing hitters in batting practice Friday. & LHP James Paxton played catch after throwing from 120 feet over the weekend and is in line to throw off a mound by next week, according to Cora.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/recap?gameId=401355053
 

sezwho

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There wasn’t even a 2) there! I voted yes and think they have the existing team to at least win a 1st round.
IF Sale/Paxton can return and beeven a close approximation of their former selves then they can go deep
I said yes and this sounds about right.

Offense can still be not just good but elite, and pitching still looks like it’s continuing to punch above it’s weight with still has some upside with the potential of returning arms and maybe an acquisition or move of some kind to add a reliever.
 

chawson

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I voted yes.

FanGraphs playoff odds are all the way up to 49.1%. Sale will help, and I'm pretty eager to see Paxton in a Red Sox uniform. Bello, German, Walter, Murphy, Kelly and Politi could all help in some fashion too. I think the Yankees are gonna take the East this year, but we're in a really good spot to bring in reinforcements in whatever form and make a run.

What would be really incredible is if Schreiber remains legit and just assumes the closer role. It would be nice to remove any pressure to trade for an "established closer" this summer.

I also think we're likelier to retain Devers and Bogaerts if we make a strong run. The media bullshit and scapegoating that comes with a collapse, or even a near playoff miss, could toxify some of those negotiations and make everyone miserable. I'd love to not see that happen.
 

streeter88

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Sure, why not. Better to root for them to make it then to fail.

(typo noticed, but left because it amuses me).
A most excellent typo… Lol

As longer as there’s no nuclear winter, I am optimistic. I mean what’s not to like when it’s June 7 and my favorite Aussie ski resort has a 36” base and they’re not even supposed to officially be open yet.
 

8slim

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Finish at least in the 6th spot of a mediocre 15 team league? Yeah, I mean, why not? I suspect the lineup is going to rake this summer. So if the rotation continues to overperform and the bullpen can be patched together, winning 86+ is thoroughly doable.
 

BringBackMo

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Bello, German, Walter, Murphy, Kelly and Politi could all help in some fashion too
Adding on to this for posters who may not follow the system as closely: I think a fair assessment of the big-league club is that the bullpen is looking right now like a significant weak link. Fortunately, there are a number of promising arms in Worcester who are knocking on the door. These are pitchers with the *potential* to come in and not just eat middle innings but perhaps help win games. They're prospects of the sort that have thrived in other organizations immediately after being called up. Here are a few names to keep an eye on in the second half:

Brian Bello, as many know, is the system's best pitching prospect. He was just promoted to Worcester, where he has continued to demonstrate swing-and-miss stuff with his fastball and changeup. His swinging-strike rate is just outside the top ten in all of minor league baseball. His fastball has topped out at 99 as a starter this season, so there is every reason to believe that it could touch triple digits in one or two inning stints. Bello has entered national top 100 prospect lists and there's lots of hope that he'll stick as a starter long term. But I think there's a good chance we'll see him in Boston as a reliever in the second half, and he's got the kind of stuff you typically see in the seventh or eighth inning.

Zack Kelly, who is 27, throws a mid-90s fastball that touches 98 and is said to have a devastating change with 10 mph separation from the fastball. He had two outings in which he gave up a total of 7 walks, resulting in a 1.36 whip, but has otherwise been quite good: 31 Ks in 21 innings, .203 baa, 2.95 era. Can we dream on him as a 7th inning arm?

Josh Winckowski has started all season. He's hardly been dominant--with a 4.04 era and 37 Ks in 36 innings--but he's another guy whose stuff probably plays up as a reliever. He sits 94-96 and reportedly hit 99 out of the pen in the AFL. Perhaps he can slot into the bulk role following starts by Hill and Wacha (when Wacha's not throwing complete games, of course), and allow Houck to become a regular 7th or 8th inning guy.

Frank German, who was recently called up to Worcester, is another fireballer. He tops out at 99, and his splitter and slider are both said to be decent. He has--gulp--26 Ks this season in 16 IP, with a .98 whip and a 2.76 era.

Brandon Walter, Connor Seabold, Chris Murphy, and AJ Politi could all potentially help as well.
 

clueandaprayer

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May 11, 2022
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I voted no, but only because if they can't shore up the bullpen, they are going to lose a lot of games 10-7, when they were ahead 7-5 in the 7th.

I don't believe Paxton will ever appear this season, and I believe the Sale we'll get won't be recognizable as the 'Chris Sale' we knew or hoped for. So much for moving Whitlock, Hill and/ or Wacha into middle relief.

Don't get me wrong; I'd love it if we kept playing well and got there. It's a long season and I want meaningful baseball in September/ October. However, the trepidation I feel when our starters reach 100 pitches isn't going away. It truly is smoke and mirrors in the pen.

Here: Our song for the rest of the season...
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlWx1LthL3M
I think it will be close but barring the unexpected fear the back end of the bullpen is going to be the Achilles heel,
 

mwonow

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I voted no, but only because if they can't shore up the bullpen, they are going to lose a lot of games 10-7, when they were ahead 7-5 in the 7th.

I don't believe Paxton will ever appear this season, and I believe the Sale we'll get won't be recognizable as the 'Chris Sale' we knew or hoped for. So much for moving Whitlock, Hill and/ or Wacha into middle relief.

Don't get me wrong; I'd love it if we kept playing well and got there. It's a long season and I want meaningful baseball in September/ October. However, the trepidation I feel when our starters reach 100 pitches isn't going away. It truly is smoke and mirrors in the pen.

Here: Our song for the rest of the season...
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlWx1LthL3M
I'm with Coachster, and not just because of the great Jerry sig. I'd love to be still following the Sox when the post season starts (heck, check out the difference between the Bs and the Cs!), but this team seems pretty flawed. I, too, believe that sale's days as "Chris SALE!!!" ae over.

I'm really curious what III was going to be.

Now you're making me feel bad for voting no. I viewed the question as a proxy for the real question: Is there a piece or pieces that can stabilize the bullpen and get people into assigned roles where they will flourish? To me that's really the question, and I'm skeptical about it.
Me too. Next time, I'll read the room *before* casting a vote!
 

YTF

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Just as I refrained from declaring this team dead when they were at their lowest point, I'm going to refrain from declaring them a playoff team ATM. Do they have a shot? Fuck yes, but they really need to continue making hay against weaker teams in these next couple of weeks. Three more at the LAA who is eventually HAS to win a few games, then it's off to Seattle for 3. After that you get Oakland at home for 3 followed by their stiffest competition in about a month with St. Louis in for three. After that you have Detroit for three at home then at Cleveland for three. IMO they really need to come out of this stretch 6-7 games over .500 to give themselves a shot at this. After that there's a pretty steady diet of AL East teams not named Baltimore and that is going to be a real test. Where they stand leading into those games is going to be huge as they try to improve their record within the division.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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This early in the season, the full effect of the weighted schedule isn't really represented in the current standings. Many teams will be playing an increasing percentage of intradivision games over the remainder of the season. The chances that the 2nd place team in two different divisions will finish at or below .500 are pretty slim.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Finish at least in the 6th spot of a mediocre 15 team league? Yeah, I mean, why not? I suspect the lineup is going to rake this summer. So if the rotation continues to overperform and the bullpen can be patched together, winning 86+ is thoroughly doable.
of the 15 teams in the league, really 11 of them are trying at this point in time, and that number will probably be whittled down as the season plays out. Sale doesn't have to be SALE for them to make the playoffs and anything they get from Paxton is gravy.

So they should make it IMO.
 

AB in DC

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FanGraphs playoff odds are all the way up to 49.1%.
That feels about right to me. Right now I'm leaning toward no, but only because of the unbalanced schedule. I could easily see the Sox win 85-87 games but someone else in a weaker division gets hot (and/or makes good trades at the deadline) and beats them out for the last wild card. I don't see 90+ wins as realistic given the state of the AL East.
 

nvalvo

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Given that the competition for WC3 will probably be the Guardians, White Sox and Angels, this series in Anaheim feels pretty important.
 

Rovin Romine

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Given that the competition for WC3 will probably be the Guardians, White Sox and Angels, this series in Anaheim feels pretty important.
All wins are good. A win that is also a loss for your direct competitor is better.

Right now, v. CWS, we're 2-4, with 0 left to play.
CLE 0-0, 7 left.​
LAAA 2-2, 3 left.​

OTOH:
NYY 1-2, 16 left.​
TBR 1-2, 16 left.​
TOR 2-5, 12 left.​
BAL 3-5, 11 left.​
That feels about right to me. Right now I'm leaning toward no, but only because of the unbalanced schedule. I could easily see the Sox win 85-87 games but someone else in a weaker division gets hot (and/or makes good trades at the deadline) and beats them out for the last wild card. I don't see 90+ wins as realistic given the state of the AL East.
CLE finishes with 6 home games against the Royals.

We finish with 3 against TOR and 3 against TBR.
 

jon abbey

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The Twins should be in that group too, I wouldn’t concede the division to them yet.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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I have to be consistent so it's a no for me, dawg.

Too many question marks ahead, too many better teams ahead in the standings, too many losses to non-contenders.

I can't look at a recent run of success against bottom feeders and a team in free fall as any kind of indicator that they suddenly put it all together a week after they dropped three of 5 at home to the team with the lowest payroll in the league and then split a series against the dreadful Reds, also at home.

About 25% of the regular season has gone by and they are one game over .500, in fourth place with the three clearly better teams ahead of them in the division, and are going to have to hope that the AL West doesn't turn into a dogfight in the hope that they might get in as the least-deserving playoff team (which is what the third wild card spot means to me).

They'll tease us, I'm sure, but will be lucky to get to 85 wins.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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I have read this multiple times and I still don't understand what it means. They don't have to pass a single team to make the playoffs.
If you want to get into semantics, you're technically correct. And while that may be the best kind of correct, it's also virtually impossible that they don't end up jockeying for position the longer the season goes along. And I just don't believe in their ability to hang in as the summer goes on and they start playing teams that are actually trying to win.
 

BringBackMo

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I have to be consistent so it's a no for me, dawg.

Too many question marks ahead, too many better teams ahead in the standings, too many losses to non-contenders.

I can't look at a recent run of success against bottom feeders and a team in free fall as any kind of indicator that they suddenly put it all together a week after they dropped three of 5 at home to the team with the lowest payroll in the league and then split a series against the dreadful Reds, also at home.

About 25% of the regular season has gone by and they are one game over .500, in fourth place with the three clearly better teams ahead of them in the division, and are going to have to hope that the AL West doesn't turn into a dogfight in the hope that they might get in as the least-deserving playoff team (which is what the third wild card spot means to me).

They'll tease us, I'm sure, but will be lucky to get to 85 wins.
This is spectacular, and it certainly is consistent. Let's review.
Too many question marks ahead, too many better teams ahead in the standings, too many losses to non-contenders.
Assuming for now that every single one of the teams ahead of them remains ahead of them, the Red Sox still have a clear path to making the playoffs. They don't have to pass a single one of the teams that is currently ahead of them.
any kind of indicator that they suddenly put it all together a week after they dropped three of 5 at home to the team with the lowest payroll in the league and then split a series against the dreadful Reds, also at home.
This is pretending that the excitement about the Red Sox right now involves only their current winning streak. It does not. The Sox are now 18-8 in their last 26 games, a .692 winning percentage.
About 25% of the regular season has gone by
The season is now about 34 percent of the way over. The Red Sox are 28-27, meaning they have played 55 games of 162 games.
three clearly better teams ahead of them in the division
The Sox are 3.5 games behind the Rays and 4.5 games behind the Jays. There are 107 games left to play. The Sox have scored the most runs in the American League. The Sox have the third best run differential in the American League. It's certainly not fair to say that the Sox are better than the Rays or the Jays at this point, but I'd say the gap between them is slimmer than you suggest. But again, who cares? The Yankees, Jays, and Rays can all finish with better records, and the Sox can still make the playoffs.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If you want to get into semantics, you're technically correct. And while that may be the best kind of correct, it's also virtually impossible that they don't end up jockeying for position the longer the season goes along. And I just don't believe in their ability to hang in as the summer goes on and they start playing teams that are actually trying to win.
If you think they're not going to hang in over the summer, then just say that. Words and phrases have meaning. Use ones that mean what you intend them to mean. Sloughing it off as "semantics" is horseshit.
 

Daniel_Son

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I voted yes - the biggest concern right now (bullpen) can be shored up at the deadline. Someone like Scott Barlow (KC) or Alex Lange (DET) would be huge.

Pitching has been stellar, and should continue to keep them in it even considering a regression from Wacha/Hill. 75% Sale is still valuable, and anything Paxton gives you this year is gravy. Story and Cordero are lengthening the lineup well.
 

tims4wins

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If you want to get into semantics, you're technically correct. And while that may be the best kind of correct, it's also virtually impossible that they don't end up jockeying for position the longer the season goes along. And I just don't believe in their ability to hang in as the summer goes on and they start playing teams that are actually trying to win.
Chicago, Houston, and Seattle weren’t trying to win? Seattle is 8-5 since that series, including 3-1 against Houston. If they’re not trying to win they’re doing a damn good job pretending otherwise.

Edit: Texas too. They’re 11-9 since the series
 

E5 Yaz

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Chicago, Houston, and Seattle weren’t trying to win? Seattle is 8-5 since thst series, including 3-1 against Houston. If they’re not trying to win they’re doing a damn good job pretending otherwise.
Semantics, schemantics
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Chicago, Houston, and Seattle weren’t trying to win? Seattle is 8-5 since that series, including 3-1 against Houston. If they’re not trying to win they’re doing a damn good job pretending otherwise.

Edit: Texas too. They’re 11-9 since the series
Did they just play those teams? No, they played the Athletics, the Reds, and the Orioles, all last-place teams. Of those, you could argue for the Reds trying to win, but you can't make the same claim for the other two. And the Halos are in free fall, though maybe that ends with the Maddon firing.

Now, if they can go 7-4 (their record in the last 11 games) against the Astros, Yankees, and Milwaukee (the first place teams for those same divisions), I'll be more receptive to the idea that they can maybe make it interesting.

But, like I said, playing well against teams that have already punted this season doesn't exactly get me hyped for what's to come.

Edit: Thanks for pointing out that the season is better than a third over. Over a third of a season, they are one game over .500. If they play at a similar clip the rest of the way, they'll finish 84-78. And we can't ignore that part of their recent run of success has been not using bullpen arms. That's an impossible practice to keep up and the bullpen still sucks.
 

tims4wins

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Did they just play those teams? No, they played the Athletics, the Reds, and the Orioles, all last-place teams. Of those, you could argue for the Reds trying to win, but you can't make the same claim for the other two. And the Halos are in free fall, though maybe that ends with the Maddon firing.

Now, if they can go 7-4 (their record in the last 11 games) against the Astros, Yankees, and Milwaukee (the first place teams for those same divisions), I'll be more receptive to the idea that they can maybe make it interesting.

But, like I said, playing well against teams that have already punted this season doesn't exactly get me hyped for what's to come.
So your argument is the Sox got back into it by......... losing 4 out of 7 to the Reds and O's? HUH?? Take out those series and the Sox are 12-3 in the other 15 games (.800).

Your argument is completely non-sensical. The Orioles and Reds series weren't any kind of springboard; in fact, the opposite, as those series set the Sox back.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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So your argument is the Sox got back into it by......... losing 4 out of 7 to the Reds and O's? HUH?? Take out those series and the Sox are 12-3 in the other 15 games (.800).
I never said they got back into it. I said they've had a recent run of success against 5th-place teams. I don't think still being in 4th place in June is getting back into it. YMMV