A thread for Jake Peavy

[Yelling At Clouds]

First-time thread starter, so apologies if this is covered elsewhere, but I am somewhat surprised by the general lack of discussion about Peavy. His 2014 has been... not great. Specifically, prior to this season, one of Peavy's calling cards was his ability to limit walks. Since his first full year in 2003, he has only twice walked as many as three batters per nine innings (he spent time on the DL both years, for what it's worth). Last year, he only walked 36 batters in 144.2 innings. This year, though, he's already walked 27 batters in 48 innings, or 5.06 per nine.
 
This article sheds some light. Seems like he's having some difficulty locating his two-seam fastball, and he also may be throwing it too often, especially to right-handed batters. Indeed, Fangraphs says this is the most he's thrown his two-seamer in his career.
 
Any other thoughts, observations, ideas?

 

[teddywingman]

He hasn't looked very good, and he's been lucky. He won't maintain a sub 4 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Is he still fooling around with his arm angle? Didn't Farrell convince him to go lower with it late regular season last year? I have no idea what that's all about. I watch Tim Hudson pitch for the Giants now and he looks the same as he did for the As is 1999.

 

[Sprowl]

The lower arm slot and increased reliance on the 2-seamer go together; the sinker-slider combination is the classic repertoire of the sidearmer. Peavy isn't quite a sidearmer, but he's well below three-quarters now, and looks like a Munchkin Masterson. Unfortunately, a lower arm slot is also often associated with lack of pinpoint control of the fastball. Couple these changes with Peavy's multi-season loss of velocity on both the 4-seamer and the 2-seamer, and I'm thinking that Peavy's decline phase is entrenched, and his best days are receding in the rearview mirror. All three teams lost the Peavy-Iglesias-Garcia trade.

 

[djhb20]

Well, the Sox won the World Series, and they may not have if not for an error Iglesias made for the Tigers in the ALCS. So, I think the Sox lost less.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

So what makes a pitcher move to a lower arm slot? Is it shoulder fatigue? Concerns about the fastball straightening out too much and needing more movement?

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

I understand it's the effects of wear and tear on the shoulder caused by previous pitching (a.k.a. aging). 

 

[Plympton91]

It was Pedro who told Peavy late last year that his arm angle had gotten higher over time, and convinced him to lower it. The timing of that change is exactly matched the loss of command. No reason to think it won't improve as he gets more used to the new arm angle. To me, his velocity in the past two starts has ticked up as well. As a fifth starter, Peavy will be fantastic this year. The least of our worries.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

It was Pedro who told Peavy late last year that his arm angle had gotten higher over time, and convinced him to lower it. The timing of that change is exactly matched the loss of command. No reason to think it won't improve as he gets more used to the new arm angle. To me, his velocity in the past two starts has ticked up as well. As a fifth starter, Peavy will be fantastic this year. The least of our worries.

 
Does evidence count as a reason?
 

 

[Plympton91]

I see, so unlike In the case of Xander Bogaerts defense, and Grady Sizemore and Jackie Bradley on offense, mid-May does provide a statistically meaningful sample for Jake Peavy. Got it.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

9 of his 12 starts since changing arm angles he's had worse BB/9 than the previous start. Binomial test with increase/decrease set at .5 (i.e. no trend) is p<.07. Feel free to run the time series analysis, I assure it will provide greater power.

 

[Plympton91]

If he can't get improvement with this arm angle, he can go back to the previous arm angle. It's not like he was ineffective with it. The key point is that the lower arm angle is an intentional change, not a response to deterioration in his arm or shoulder.

Tell me what the p value is for number of starts it takes to get used to a new arm angle over two saasons. Put away the spreadsheet.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Two-sided Spearman rank correlation between game number and BB/9 since he changed arm angle is rho=0.95  (p<0.000000000000001). You're the stats expert, feel free to test other ways.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

If he can't get improvement with this arm angle, he can go back to the previous arm angle. It's not like he was ineffective with it. The key point is that the lower arm angle is an intentional change, not a response to deterioration in his arm or shoulder.

Tell me what the p value is for number of starts it takes to get used to a new arm angle over two saasons. Put away the spreadsheet.

 
Dude, I don't know. All I have to go on is the data that I'm bringing to your conversation, which shows a significant downward trend. There is literally zero evidence that he's getting more comfortable with the arm angle, quite the opposite.

 

[Plympton91]

Two-sided Spearman rank correlation between game number and BB/9 since he changed arm angle is rho=0.95  (p<0.000000000000001). You're the stats expert, feel free to test other ways.

Thanks Mr. Van. The only valid test is before vs after the exogenous event of the switch. But I don't need a spreadsheet to see that the switch hasn't worked, yet.

 
Dude, I don't know. All I have to go on is the data that I'm bringing to your conversation, which shows a significant downward trend. There is literally zero evidence that he's getting more comfortable with the arm angle, quite the opposite.

Why would you expect the improvement to be linear or quick? It took Clay Buccholtz a whole year or more to adapt to new mechanics. Older pitchers routinely reinvent themselves to deal with lower velocity.

I didn't say he had been improving or that he would start doing so immediately. I said there's no rsason to assume he won't.


And again if it doesn't work he can go back to the old way. The second key point is that it's a conscious decision , not an adaptation to injury. But keep harping on the half of the argument you think is a gotcha point.

And you're as much a statistician as me, so I'm kinda surprised you think that chart shows a trend and not two clumps of data points.

 

[joe dokes]

I have thought that Peavy has been doing it with smoke and mirrors since day 1.  IMO, he is walking people because he does not think he can get them out with anything but "perfect" strikes anymore.  Since he's been here, he mostly gotten away with it. Ultimately, he probably will be ok as the 5th best starter on the team (that assumes Buchholz is still alive and well; and I think Doubront will outpitch Peavy), because there's enough shitty hitters around. But no matter how much he wants to stay in Boston, I wouldn't want him back at anything but a really really deep price cut that he's probably not interested in.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

I have thought that Peavy has been doing it with smoke and mirrors since day 1.  IMO, he is walking people because he does not think he can get them out with anything but "perfect" strikes anymore.  Since he's been here, he mostly gotten away with it. Ultimately, he probably will be ok as the 5th best starter on the team (that assumes Buchholz is still alive and well; and I think Doubront will outpitch Peavy), because there's enough shitty hitters around. But no matter how much he wants to stay in Boston, I wouldn't want him back at anything but a really really deep price cut that he's probably not interested in.

 
So Peavy is this year's version of Daisuke. Lovely.

 

[joe dokes]

 
So Peavy is this year's version of Daisuke. Lovely.

 
Hadn't occurred to me quite that way.  I think Peavy's is by choice, though, since he's always had great control  I think Matsuzaka never really had the ability to throw strikes consistently in MLB.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Why would you expect the improvement to be linear or quick? It took Clay Buccholtz a whole year or more to adapt to new mechanics. Older pitchers routinely reinvent themselves to deal with lower velocity. I didn't say he had been improving or that he would start doing so immediately. I said there's no rsason to assume he won't.

 
Right, but as with all of the questions about this team, how long do we wait? Do we have a year to wait for his BB/9 to dip below 4?
 

 
 
And again if it doesn't work he can go back to the old way. The second key point is that it's a conscious decision , not an adaptation to injury.

 
Why can't it be both? The story on Papelbon was that he consciously altered his arm angle to reduce strain on his shoulder. Even if it was a decision Peavy made, he may not be able to go back to the other arm slot at this point. 

 

[Rice4HOF]

Setting aside his arm angle and increased walk issues, he has made 8 appearances so far this season, and in 5 of them has had very good results (IP/Runs: 6/2; 6.2/1; 6/1; 7/1; 6.1/2) That's a combined sub 2 ERA in those 5 starts.  Admittedly he hasn't been able to pitch too deep into games, mainly due to the walks he's giving up leading to high pitch counts.  He's also had a couple of poor outings - his latest, and the one back on April 20th, where he gave up 10 hits, 4 walks and 5 runs without getting out of the 6th inning against the O's.  But I'll happily take 6 IPs of 2 run outings once each time through the rotation. May lead to a bit more wear and tear on our bullpen (albeit not as much as in Felix and Clay starts so far), but with decent run support (he's already started 2 games the Sox lost 2-1) that should also lead to lots of Sox wins.
 
In other words, I'm content if he keeps pitching like he has so far.  With 32 starts of the caliber he's had so far, the Sox should win 20 of those games, lose 8, and the other 4 are a tossup. 

 

[Fishy1]

A nice article over at fangraphs notes some reasons why we might have cause for concern: 
 

 
 
That increased walk rate might play if Peavy is able to keep his batting average on balls in play in the neighborhood in which it currently resides. His BABIP is .239, and at the moment that gives him the 10th-lowest BABIP among the 109 qualified pitchers. Peavy has never had a BABIP even close to this low, but then he has never worked out of the zone as frequently either. According to Brooks, the only pitch that he is throwing inside the strike zone this year more frequently than he did from 2011-2013 is his curveball

 
So he's living outside the zone way more than he has in the past -- either because he's having issues with his delivery, or because he's afraid his fastball, which is nearly a mph slower than it has been in the past, is going to get hammered -- and if we're lucky, that's the cause behind his extremely low BABIP. 
 
It should also be noted that he's throwing fastballs nearly 60% of the time, up from 52% from his day's with the White Sox -- a lot closer to the amount he used to throw as a Padre. Which, at least to me, makes the loss of control even more bizarre. Hopefully it's just an issue with his delivery:  we know the Red Sox keep extremely tight watch on their pitcher's shoulder strength.
 
Nonetheless, count me as one of those folks who's worried about Peavy. Maybe over his next five or six starts his fastball speed will normalize, and he'll find the zone. I certainly wouldn't count it out, but such a precipitous decline in control could be a function of getting used to this arm slot. I don't think it's impossible.
 
It could also be him, you know, getting old.

 

[koufax37]

The lower arm slot and increased reliance on the 2-seamer go together; the sinker-slider combination is the classic repertoire of the sidearmer. Peavy isn't quite a sidearmer, but he's well below three-quarters now, and looks like a Munchkin Masterson. Unfortunately, a lower arm slot is also often associated with lack of pinpoint control of the fastball. Couple these changes with Peavy's multi-season loss of velocity on both the 4-seamer and the 2-seamer, and I'm thinking that Peavy's decline phase is entrenched, and his best days are receding in the rearview mirror. All three teams lost the Peavy-Iglesias-Garcia trade.

 
I've followed Peavy closely since his days as a star here in San Diego, and I'm a little worried right now.  He has always been a slinger and that has been part of him generating movement and some deception on his smaller frame.
 
The lower arm angle I think starts to undermine this without giving him much advantage in his horizontal movement, while diminishing his vertical movement, and most concerningly impacting his fastball command (he hasn't hit many righties, but he sure has thrown some not even close outside pitches to lefties).  He doesn't have the Masterson/Jeff Nelson body and arm length to benefit a lot from the release point deception against righties.
 
I would like to see him raise his arm angle if he is physically capable (lower arm angle is often related to a minor physical problem that doesn't always show up right away), and throw more sliders to complement his inside two seam.  But I'm not really optimistic right now based on a small sample of visual observation.  I don't think the statistics are broad enough to read into (like Plympton mentioned), but I think there are some worrisome indications that we might not get as much out of him this year and beyond as I had hoped and projected and I know many others had.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Well, Peavy with his best BB/9 in a start since the beginning of the 2013 season. 

 

[teddywingman]

Well, Peavy with his best BB/9 in a start since the beginning of the 2013 season. 

While the Tigers put on a laser show.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

If he's not at the bottom of the zone, he gets rocked. Pretty simple. His stuff is not good enough above the knees. Movement or velocity

He's a fifth starter, one of three currently in the Sox rotation.

 

[ookami7m]

Peavy's decline phase is entrenched, and his best days are receding in the rearview mirror. All three teams lost the Peavy-Iglesias-Garcia trade.

Other than that whole "winning the World Series" bit of course....

 

[WenZink]

Does it make sense to put Peavy on waivers and hope some team claims him?  Maybe even the Yankees, which should bring them back to the bottom of the AL East.
 
I'm serious, since it would open up a spot in the rotation for RDLR or Webster, and give the Sox some idea of what they have.  I get the feeling Peavy is just shot and any wins he gets from here on out are going to be 12-9 games or if he gives up rockets hit right at fielders.

 

[MakMan44]

Peavy's HR/FB ratio is nearly 4% higher than his career average and his BB/9 is double last years and nearly 2 walks over his career average. If he regress, even a little, he's still got a lot of use as our 5th starter. 

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Peavy's HR/FB ratio is nearly 4% higher than his career average and his BB/9 is double last years and nearly 2 walks over his career average. If he regress, even a little, he's still got a lot of use as our 5th starter. 

 
And when he started his career, in a pitchers' park in the bleeping NL West, he could throw the ball over the goddam plate and not lose sleep over whether or not the batter put the ball in play. Those days are over. He's afraid of solid contact now.
 
His walk rate isn't coming down, and young Jake isn't walking through that door.

 

[MakMan44]

We don't need young Jake. We need a Jake who can pitch to a 4 ERA and at least keep them in the game. I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility.

 

[WenZink]

Peavy's HR/FB ratio is nearly 4% higher than his career average and his BB/9 is double last years and nearly 2 walks over his career average. If he regress, even a little, he's still got a lot of use as our 5th starter. 

 
But the increase in his BB/9 rate is semi-intentional since balls in the zone are getting whacked.  I'm no expert, but a quick look at his stats in fangraphs, shows that just about every metric is down.  Peavy's no novice, or a head case like Doubront on Buch.  I think he's trying every adjustment he can make, but he's nearing the end.  He's not worth the $13 mil, but maybe some contender with starter injuries will take a flyer, if only based on his April success, which is getting diminished every start.
 
More importantly the Sox have to figure out what they have in Webster/RDLR/Workman and maybe Ranaudo.  They have to know before they go back to Lester pre-FA.  Not to mention whether or not to use Lackey's "free" year as leverage to possibly extend him a year or two.  Peavy's not part of the solution, at this point.  The Pawsox starters may or may not be, but they should be getting a look see, and if one of them happens to be ready for prime-time, then the team gets a boost.

 

[MakMan44]

 
But the increase in his BB/9 rate is semi-intentional since balls in the zone are getting whacked.  I'm no expert, but a quick look at his stats in fangraphs, shows that just about every metric is down.  Peavy's no novice, or a head case like Doubront on Buch.  I think he's trying every adjustment he can make, but he's nearing the end.  He's not worth the $13 mil, but maybe some contender with starter injuries will take a flyer, if only based on his April success, which is getting diminished every start.
 
More importantly the Sox have to figure out what they have in Webster/RDLR/Workman and maybe Ranaudo.  They have to know before they go back to Lester pre-FA.  Not to mention whether or not to use Lackey's "free" year as leverage to possibly extend him a year or two.  Peavy's not part of the solution, at this point.  The Pawsox starters may or may not be, but they should be getting a look see, and if one of them happens to be ready for prime-time, then the team gets a boost.

I think this actually really fair, if you're planning on giving up on 2014. 
 
I agree that Peavy's trying/failing to make adjustments with diminished stuff. I don't yet think it's time to put him on waivers nor do I think he'd actually be claimed if he was. It sucks but I think you have to run the course and hope for the best for now. 

 

[WenZink]

I think this actually really fair, if you're planning on giving up on 2014. 
 
I agree that Peavy's trying/failing to make adjustments with diminished stuff. I don't yet think it's time to put him on waivers nor do I think he'd actually be claimed if he was. It sucks but I think you have to run the course and hope for the best for now. 

 
It's not giving up on 2014, it's more a case of trying to fix things, with minimal risk and save money in the process.
 
Peavy's FIP with the Red Sox (last year and this) is a lot closer to 5.00 than 4.00.  Steamer projections give the same projected FIP to Webster and lower to RDLR, and that was before their good starts in AAA this season.  We know Peavy is done.  I seriously doubt you're going to get a 4.00 ERA the rest of the way from Jake.  I have much higher expectations that Doubront and Buch can be "fixed" than I do for a Peavy resurgence.  On a contending club, Peavy is a #5 starter.  The Sox have a quartet of #5 starters at Pawtucket, at league minimum.  And if I'm wrong, and not one of them is ready to be a #5, then they'd better find out now, and not next season.  (Not to mention that one or more might be adequate long relievers,, freeing up Capuano to the rotation.)

 

[MakMan44]

It's possible that the AAA pitchers come up and have immediate success, but it's also possible they fall on their collective faces. I'd hesitate on trusting projections but I won't argue that they have a chance at out performing Peavy ROS. 
 
I don't think trying to move Peavy is the wrong move but I'd give him a few more starts before I'd dump him on waivers. 

 

[Plympton91]

1 walk in the past 12 innings. The control is coming along, now the command needs to follow. Hopefully he can show enough improvement to bet a decent lottery ticket at the deadline, at which it is more and more likely that the team will sadly be sellers.

 

[WenZink]

It's possible that the AAA pitchers come up and have immediate success, but it's also possible they fall on their collective faces. I'd hesitate on trusting projections but I won't argue that they have a chance at out performing Peavy ROS. 
 
I don't think trying to move Peavy is the wrong move but I'd give him a few more starts before I'd dump him on waivers. 

 
I think the only added risk is that you bring up one of them and they pee down their leg, and can't get out of the second inning, in which case the pen is taxed.  But, in that case you send him down, and bring up another arm to supplant the pen, and then when the 5th day arrives you send down the reliever and bring up the next starter.  It's not always an elegant process, but you need a few months to give the candidates a chance, so you can't wait until August.
 
And adding to the immediacy of putting Jake on waivers is to offer him before he completely craters.  It may be too late, but the Yankees can be really dumb when they're desperate.

 

[WenZink]

1 walk in the past 12 innings. The control is coming along, now the command needs to follow. Hopefully he can show enough improvement to bet a decent lottery ticket at the deadline, at which it is more and more likely that the team will sadly be sellers.

 
Yeah the good news is 1 walk in 12 innings.  The bad news is 19 hits in those 12 innings.  I preferred "Jake the Nibbler" a little better. I think.

 

[MakMan44]

 
I think the only added risk is that you bring up one of them and they pee down their leg, and can't get out of the second inning, in which case the pen is taxed.  But, in that case you send him down, and bring up another arm to supplant the pen, and then when the 5th day arrives you send down the reliever and bring up the next starter.  It's not always an elegant process, but you need a few months to give the candidates a chance, so you can't wait until August.

The problem with this is that we can't afford to lose too many more games. We're not even close to "must win" territory but rotating in our AAA starters, trying to figure out which one works best, doesn't seem like the best path to contending, especially when we're talking about doing this on the heels of a long losing streak.

 

[Plympton91]

And which AAA starter actually projects to be good?

 

[WenZink]

The problem with this is that we can't afford to lose too many more games. We're not even close to "must win" territory but rotating in our AAA starters, trying to figure out which one works best, doesn't seem like the best path to contending, especially when we're talking about doing this on the heels of a long losing streak.

But Workman, Webster and De La Rosa are not 22 year old kids.  They've all had a taste of the majors.  Webster RDLR and Ranaudo have all been in the top 100 prospects and are repeating AAA.  I don't expect them to be a Bobby Sprowl, Abe Alvarez or Charlie Zink.  It could happen, but I think the upside is real.  And if they all suck, the revelation is worth something to the Sox going forward.

 

[WenZink]

And which AAA starter actually projects to be good?

 
Steamer projected RDLR with a MLB FIP/ERA of just under 4.00.  Webster was around 4.90, but that was before their 8 starts in AAA this year.  RDLR/Webster/Ranaudo all have nearly identical BB/9 rates of around 3.75, which is problematic if and when they face MLB hitting, but all have lowered their BB/9 rates over last year, I believe. RDLR's K/9 is just under 9, Ranaudo 8.5, and Webster's K/9 has dropped under 7, in part because they've wanted him to go deeper in games.  Webster's ERA is 2.47 this year, with Ranaudo and RDLR having ERA's in the low 3.00's.  BB/9 is the only thing that's a concern.
 
All three of these pitchers would have already had starts if they were on the AAA clubs of the Yankees or Angels or Texas to name just 3 clubs that are/hope to be contenders.  Compare their prospect pedigrees and 2014 results with, for instance, Matt Shoemaker, who was called up to be the Angels' 5th starter a couple of weeks ago, and has allowed just 5 hits, and 3 BB over 11 IP in 2 starts (2.0)

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

FYI Shoemaker started tonight.

 

[soxhop411]

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler  44s
Jake Peavy breaking down his last start in depth with @TimBritton is an excellent read: http://bit.ly/1m8Bi8C 
 
I am about halfway done with this….

 

[soxhop411]

Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber  1m
Farrell mentioned Peavy has dealt with minor groin issues. Peavy: "I'm fine. I'm plenty good enough to compete and do better than I'm doing"
 
Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe  1m
Farrell did not dismiss the idea of Peavy coming out of the rotation. #redsox
 
So if he is dealing with any groin issue, put him on the DL so he can recover..

 

[NDame616]

 
Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber  1m
Farrell mentioned Peavy has dealt with minor groin issues. Peavy: "I'm fine. I'm plenty good enough to compete and do better than I'm doing"
 
Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe  1m
Farrell did not dismiss the idea of Peavy coming out of the rotation. #redsox
 
So if he is dealing with any groin issue, put him on the DL so he can recover..
 

 
Clearly someone forgot to tell Peavy he has a groin problem and a trip to the DL is happening in his future.....

 

[BosRedSox5]

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/481902061676552193
 
I know McCarthy is younger, but I've got to assume if there's truly a trade market for him then the Red Sox could find a suitor for Peavy. Peavy's doing a little worse overall but are they that far apart? Especially considering that Peavy was successful earlier in the season before slumping a bit?