A Dream of 2025, What is Going Right and Looks like the Sox can Build On

[PedroisGod]

With Seattle being a contending team, I'm not sure they'd take prospects - even the big 4 - for Gilbert or Kirby. I do think they'd take Duran.

I can get behind what Fishy is saying. Aside from the Arraez/Lopez trade, there aren't many deals that involve two players of that calibre. They're usually for prospects, and not even the most premium prospects at that.

I'd prefer to not move Duran as well, and if given the choice of moving Duran for Kirby/Gilbert or moving a package of prospects (not involving the big 4) for a lesser arm, but still one with control that would represent a clear upgrade over what we have, then the latter would be my preference.

I'm just not sure Duran for Kirby/Gilbert would be a hard no for me. I'd get it, and could live with it if that's how it went down.

 

[Fishy1]

You move a top ten player (who may or may not be having a career year) for pitching because you desperately need pitching and you have a surplus of outfielders and you want to get to the head of the line to get the best pitching possible. This is a trade that has happened every winter since the dawning of the Winter Meetings. And you're right, position players do play seven to eight times the amount of innings but like we've seen pitchers who tire in the second half not only put pressure on the rest of the starting staff, but they start to add pressure to the bullpen too. Since instead of a pitcher pitching six or seven, he goes four or five and those innings have to be made up elsewhere, right?

As far as replacing his value, you're right it would probably tough to replace what Duran is bringing you this year. But I expect that part of that replacement would come from a full year of Casas. I don't think that Story is worth much, but if healthy he can probably give you more than what you got at second base. Add in upgrades to the designated hitter position and whomever is replacing Duran (Tyler O'Neil types are plentiful) and I don't think that the Sox batting order would miss much of a beat. You could go through baseball history right before a big move was made and wonder where the production is going to come from when a team loses an important cog (like when Seattle lost Griffey, Johnson and ARod but still won 116 games [with the emergence of Ichiro understood, but he didn't do it all himself]).

I don't think that anyone on this board is looking to deal Duran for Wade Miley but if you want a legit arm, you need to let go of a legit piece. Duran might be that piece.

If it happens every Winter Meeting, it shouldn't be hard to provide examples of arb eligible top ten players who were traded for top ten starting pitchers. And yet I can't think of any examples, really.

Again, we don't need to trade Duran to get good pitching. We don't even necessarily need to move top prospects. I've provided several examples, and yet the trade Duran crew isn't.

We can just spend money or send prospects.

 

[PedroisGod]

If the cost for SP is so reasonable, it makes it more confusing as to why the Sox, with a good farm system, haven’t landed any in recent years.

IMO, they haven't done so because they didn't believe in the current team enough to do so at that point in time. My expectation (or hope) has been that when they thought the team was closer to legitimate contention and more is known about the prospects they have, then they'd pull the trigger on one of those types of trades. I guess we'll see.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If Duran is so valuable that he's too much to pay for one very good pitcher, why not get two for him then? Like why not offer him to Seattle for Kirby and Woo? What's the worst that happens, the Mariners say no?

The notion that a trade like that hasn't happened before therefore it will never happen at all is folly. Generally speaking, when a team is trading a star player away, either they're re-building and want prospects for that rebuild, or the team acquiring the star player doesn't want to diminish the big league roster to the point where adding the star doesn't help so they trade prospects. That's not the case with either the Mariners or the Red Sox. Both are on the cusp of a long contending window and both have a surplus of one thing and a dearth of the other. The match is there if they want to do it. It'd be a bold move for both GMs. The likelihood of it happening is probably 2% or less. But it's fun to talk about nonetheless. Or at least, it beats the hell out of talking about how the team is playing currently.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I think it’s hard to pull off deals for young pitching without giving up even younger pitching, which the Sox haven’t had and still don’t. You can criticize the return on Cease, but did / do the Sox have a Drew Thorp?

 

[sean1562]

Gilbert has a 117 ERA+ this year and Kirby 103 ERA+. I am against trading Duran for either of them because I do not think either of them are even that good. Kirby's ERA away from T-Mobile Park this year is 4.10 and Gilbert's is 3.95. Our major pitching problem is that our bullpen has a 4.56 ERA this year, 26th in the league.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

If it happens every Winter Meeting, it shouldn't be hard to provide examples of arb eligible top ten players who were traded for top ten starting pitchers. And yet I can't think of any examples, really.

Again, we don't need to trade Duran to get good pitching. We don't even necessarily need to move top prospects. I've provided several examples, and yet the trade Duran crew isn't.

We can just spend money or send prospects.

So Duran is completely untouchable? What if Cherington calls up and asks you for a Paul Skenes for Duran one-for-one swap. You'd do it, right? I don't think that this is remotely close to happening unless Cherington gets a coconut off the skull, but there are players that you'd trade Duran for, right?

As far as just "spending money and trading prospects", sure I'm down with that. But the Red Sox have shown that they don't want to just spend money or send prospects for good pitching. At least during the last six years.

The trades that you shown as your examples like Ramirez and Sanibel for Lowell and Beckett or Kopech and Moncada for Sale are not just small potatoes for a big guy. Ramirez was the number 10 rated prospect in all of baseball in 2005 and was the Sox top prospect in the system. Sanchez was top ten at one point. Moncada was at one point the number one prospect in all of MLB in 2016. Kopech was top ten (I believe) in the Red Sox system. Just saying that the Red Sox traded two prospects for two aces twice (and BTW, Mike Lowell was considered a poison pill -- no one thought that he'd bounce back the way he did) is disengenuous.

I am not as versed on current prospects as others are, but my guess is that if you want a front line starter, you'd probably have to give up Anthony or Teel (I think Mayer is starting to look like damaged goods, though I hope that isn't true) and another top ten prospect. I'm not sure why you'd want to clean out the cubbard for one pitcher while Duran might be able to do the job for you, but this isn't quite as cut-and-dried as you're making this to appear.

The funny thing is I'm usually the guy screaming to trade off all rookies that aren't nailed down. But at this point, I'd trade Duran and keep the

 

[Midnight Ryder Jones]

Logan Gilbert has 3 years of club control left and a career WAR of 9.7
George Kirby has 3 years of club control left and a career WAR of 6.9
Jarren Duran has 4 years of club control left and a WAR of 8.6 this season.

Duran's value is massive, well above those two.

The point isn't to build a team with the most value. It's to build a winning team. The Red Sox, with Jarren Duran's massive value, aren't a winning team. With better pitching and a more balanced lineup, they could be.

 

[moondog80]

The point isn't to build a team with the most value. It's to build a winning team. The Red Sox, with Jarren Duran's massive value, aren't a winning team. With better pitching and a more balanced lineup, they could be.

Of course. I'm not averse to trading Duran, or anyone else for that matter. But the Mariners aren't the only team the Sox can do business with. If Duran+ for one of Gilbert/Logan is the best the Mariners can do, the Sox should look elsewhere.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The fear is that Kirby, whoever.... that Duran is dealt for ends up Chris Sale during his Red Sox tenure (post 2018)... as seems to happen with a lot of pitchers.... and Duran goes on to continue to put up at least 2-4 more 7WAR seasons. People here are losing their minds over the Sale/Grissom deal, not even touching the Mookie trade.... if a deal like that goes along the same lines I can't even imagine the reactions on a 3rd failure (judging by results)

 

[Midnight Ryder Jones]

It is meaningful, because it factors in the fact that pitchers don't play nearly as often as other players, something everyone on this board routinely forgets.

And of course they would say yes! They're loaded with great pitching and Duran is a top ten player. That offer would be an insane thing for the Sox to do! Has a deal like that ever happened?

The problem with pitcher WAR doesn't arise out of the fact that pitchers and position players play a different amount of games. (Especially when you consider the fact that position players only get a few chances to help their teams win every game. Tanner Houck has faced 710 batters this season and had 47 defensive chances, while Rafael Devers has made 542 plate appearances and had 272 chances.) The problem with pitcher WAR (both versions, though bWAR is particularly bad) is that it's a garbage stat that makes so many assumptions that it basically makes things up. Joe Posnanski, for one, has written about the issues with pitcher WAR over and over, and he did it again last week.

Simply pointing to WAR and seeing "see, this guy has more value!" is just about the laziest, most irresponsible thing a fan or member of the media can do these days.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The fear is that Kirby, whoever.... that Duran is dealt for ends up Chris Sale during his Red Sox tenure (post 2018)... as seems to happen with a lot of pitchers.... and Duran goes on to continue to put up at least 2-4 more 7WAR seasons. People here are losing their minds over the Sale/Grissom deal, not even touching the Mookie trade.... if a deal like that goes along the same lines I can't even imagine the reactions on a 3rd failure (judging by results)

With that fear, they might as well never do anything. They're going to need to spend a boatload for a pitcher, whether that's a boatload of cash or a boatload of talent (prospects or players). I've always been one to prefer they spend judiciously, but they can't compete without taking risks once in a while. I'd rather see them go big for a younger pitching talent than for a free agent, post-peak pitcher. In other words, give me a trade for a Pedro or a Sale over signing a Price, even if that trade involves shipping out a really really good and established position player in the process.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

With that fear, they might as well never do anything. They're going to need to spend a boatload for a pitcher, whether that's a boatload of cash or a boatload of talent (prospects or players). I've always been one to prefer they spend judiciously, but they can't compete without taking risks once in a while. I'd rather see them go big for a younger pitching talent than for a free agent, post-peak pitcher. In other words, give me a trade for a Pedro or a Sale over signing a Price, even if that trade involves shipping out a really really good and established position player in the process.

Agreed. And what if they trade a prospect and he turns out to be Jeff Bagwell v2.0? There's really no such thing as a no-risk trade. Any trade can blow up in your face. Any trade can work out really well for you. Most trades end up being fine for both sides. A General Manager can't go into every trade worrying about completely dominate the other guy, if that was the case no one would do anything, ever.

 

[sean1562]

What about Mayer, Bleis, and idk someone like Meidroth to the White Sox for Crochet? Mayer has had lots of injury problems and significant platoon splits. Story at SS, Campbell at 2b, Duran in CF, Anthony in LF, Abreu in RF. Rotation of Crochet, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito?

What do we do about our bullpen next year? We need better depth to avoid giving innings to guys like Chase Anderson, Joely Rodriguez, and Brad Keller.

 

[jasail]

The Sox should have a ton of financial flexibility going into the offseason. They basically have most of the position player roster locked up and most of their rotation. They are also have an apparent glut of young talent to trade from. My preference is for them to go after a guy like Burnes to lock up the front of the rotation. Then see if they can trade from their positional depth to improve their organization pitching depth and balance out their positional roster better. IMO, you explore all types of trades; be buyers and sellers. Try to trade young talent for young talent, prospects for established talent, established talent for prosects. They need pitching throughout the organization.

 

[quint]

What about Mayer, Bleis, and idk someone like Meidroth to the White Sox for Crochet? Mayer has had lots of injury problems and significant platoon splits. Story at SS, Campbell at 2b, Duran in CF, Anthony in LF, Abreu in RF. Rotation of Crochet, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito?

What do we do about our bullpen next year? We need better depth to avoid giving innings to guys like Chase Anderson, Joely Rodriguez, and Brad Keller.

I don't know, because why would Chicago do that deal? Also if one is expecting anything out of Story next year they're just sort of wishcasting at this point.

 

[benhogan]

The fear is that Kirby, whoever.... that Duran is dealt for ends up Chris Sale during his Red Sox tenure (post 2018)... as seems to happen with a lot of pitchers.... and Duran goes on to continue to put up at least 2-4 more 7WAR seasons. People here are losing their minds over the Sale/Grissom deal, not even touching the Mookie trade.... if a deal like that goes along the same lines I can't even imagine the reactions on a 3rd failure (judging by results)

I liked the Sale/Grissom trade at the time & it stinks that it backfired BUT the structure of "buying" additional prospects is fine. I'm hoping they use Masa/Story in the same fashion & just live with Trevor's bounce-back year.

Let's see if Craig can unearth some discounted pitching this winter before greenlighting any large deals around moving their top prospects

 

[chawson]

This is so silly. Every offseason we're like "trade Duran" and then we forget how stupid that was eight months later.

Why would you move a top ten player for pitching when you can just trade prospects for them? It's like nobody remembers the Sale move (or the Verlander move, or any other of the dozen examples we could give).

The bottom line is that position players are more valuable than pitchers. They play 7 to 8 times the amount of innings. They bat 4-5 times a game. They play every day. That's why Sale only went for Moncada + Kopech + Basabe. That's why Verlander only went for Ryan Clifford and Drew Gilbert. That's why Dylan Cease only went for a few prospects and a relief pitcher. Yes, you need them! But you don't need them as badly as you need position players.

All that aside, moving Duran would set us back hugely next year when we're on the cusp. He's a perfect bridge to the ATM(C) years. Even if the bat regresses a little he likely only falls to being a 4-6 fWAR player. There's no one on the team right now that can replace that value unless Story bounces back or Roman Anthony or Campbell is an all-star right out the gate (and that is HUGELY unlikely). And if those guys do break out/bounce back and we've traded Duran, well, we've potentially thrown away a guy who could put us over the top for a pitcher who might give us 3-4 fWAR. And Duran going to still be cheap (ish) for the next two years.

Anyone who's predicting Duran is going to fall off is ignoring that his defense has improved hugely and that there's nothing about his peripherals that suggests he's lucky this year. The guy is a monster. Full stop.

Just sign a pitcher, or trade some prospects for one. For god's sake.

I think this is pretty convincing and it's probably my view about half the time. There are so few potential deals that would make sense for Duran at this level of play. It's much less likely something lines up. It's certainly easier to sign someone and I think they probably should. (Though I'm not as wild on long-term deals for Burnes or Flaherty as much of this board).

On the other hand, our situation this offseason is that it's really clear we're likely to trade someone — possibly multiple someones — or risk one or more of our assets depreciating from lack of playing time.

One factor affecting that squeeze is the Prospect Promotion Incentive. We're pretty well lined up to "win" the PPI the next two seasons. Not the biggest factor, but I think it matters. It's a draft pick in the #29-32 range with a slot value of roughly $3 million.

Anthony and Campbell starting the 2025 season on the roster gives the Red Sox a pretty good shot at landing the PPI, especially since Jasson Dominguez is ineligible. Then, Mayer and maybe Sandlin would vie for it in 2026. (I think Teel gets broken in more slowly and wouldn't be a great candidate, but who knows.)

On this point...

unless Story bounces back or Roman Anthony or Campbell is an all-star right out the gate (and that is HUGELY unlikely)

...I've been hearing a lot lately how the jump from AAA to the majors is bigger than ever, and that players are taking more time to adjust at the highest level. That, and front offices have access to greater amounts of minor league Savant data so they are better equipped to attack minor leaguers once they arrive. Jackson Chourio is having a 3.5 fWAR season, but he was hitting .207/.251/.323 through June 1st this year. I wouldn't be surprised if Anthony or Campbell had the same struggles through their first 200 PAs or so, but the best way to do is likely to let them jump in and get them.

 

[scottyno]

The point isn't to build a team with the most value. It's to build a winning team. The Red Sox, with Jarren Duran's massive value, aren't a winning team. With better pitching and a more balanced lineup, they could be.

A great way to end up with a more balanced lineup is to trade your best and probably most irreplaceable offensive player. They aren't not a winning team because of Duran.

 

[YTF]

The fear is that Kirby, whoever.... that Duran is dealt for ends up Chris Sale during his Red Sox tenure (post 2018)... as seems to happen with a lot of pitchers.... and Duran goes on to continue to put up at least 2-4 more 7WAR seasons. People here are losing their minds over the Sale/Grissom deal, not even touching the Mookie trade.... if a deal like that goes along the same lines I can't even imagine the reactions on a 3rd failure (judging by results)

With all due respect, this is a piss poor way to approach business and when we talk about moving a player of Duran's 2024 profile for established major league players (not prospects) it's a much different conversation than than Sale or Betts.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

A great way to end up with a more balanced lineup is to trade your best and probably most irreplaceable offensive player. They aren't not a winning team because of Duran.

But isn’t this entire discussion because we have Anthony and Rafaela as potential replacements for Duran?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

With all due respect, this is a piss poor way to approach business and when we talk about moving a player of Duran's 2024 profile for established major league players (not prospects) it's a much different conversation than than Sale or Betts.

I wasn’t advocating for that approach just saying that there’s got to be some of that thinking in the backs of everyone’s mind- fans to the FO.

 

[scottyno]

But isn’t this entire discussion because we have Anthony and Rafaela as potential replacements for Duran?

Neither of them is likely to be remotely close to what Duran is right now. So yes, technically they could be his replacement, in the sense that they could play the same position, but they're almost certainly massive downgrades

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Neither of them is likely to be remotely close to what Duran is right now. So yes, technically they could be his replacement, in the sense that they could play the same position, but they're almost certainly massive downgrades

This assumes that Duran will be close to what he has been this season. If we think Duran is going to continue to be a 6-8+ win player for the next few years, then yeah, hard to duplicate that. If we think he's going to be a 3-4 win player (closer to what he was in 2023), that's a much lower bar that Anthony or Rafaela have a better chance of equaling (Rafaela might be able to do that with his glove alone).

 

[scottyno]

This assumes that Duran will be close to what he has been this season. If we think Duran is going to continue to be a 6-8+ win player for the next few years, then yeah, hard to duplicate that. If we think he's going to be a 3-4 win player (closer to what he was in 2023), that's a much lower bar that Anthony or Rafaela have a better chance of equaling (Rafaela might be able to do that with his glove alone).

He was only a 3-4 win player in 2023 because of his defense, so yeah if you think he's going go back to being a terrible outfielder then they should probably trade him. Even if his offense drops to 2023 levels (which was still really good) then he's pretty close to a 5-6 win floor.

 

[YTF]

He was only a 3-4 win player in 2023 because of his defense, so yeah if you think he's going go back to being a terrible outfielder then they should probably trade him. Even if his offense drops to 2023 levels (which was still really good) then he's pretty close to a 5-6 win floor.

FWIW, I don't think we can look at Duran vs Rafaela or Anthony when there is so much more at play here. I see Rafaela as a better centerfielder. If the team thinks that his bat can improve a little bit and you can potentially fill your biggest need is it an outrageous idea when you consider the potential of adding Mayer, Anthony, Teel and Campbell? There are still unknowns with those four, but even with their limited time in pro ball at least 3 of the 4 look to be upgrades over what is on the current roster. To me it's the sum of the parts vs the one player.

 

[nighthob]

Because I think the same issues he had when he signed that deal remain issues now. He's in the 1st percentile in chase% and 1st percentile in BB%. I like Rafaela, and he's probably going to be worth his deal even if he's just a glove first CF or a super utility guy. But I believe in Abreu's skill set, Duran is establishing himself as a star, and Anthony projects to be a much better all around player than Rafaela. I think Campbell could also fill the role as a RHH super utility guy too. My point is that if there's somebody that needs to go to acquire a top SP, I think Rafaela's absence would be felt the least.

Abreu is going to have a lot more trade value than Little Rafi, who projects best as a UT. Abreu is also the guy that I expect to be traded with Anthony, Montgomery, and Bleis in the wings and Duran having cemented his spot.

 

[scottyno]

FWIW, I don't think we can look at Duran vs Rafaela or Anthony when there is so much more at play here. I see Rafaela as a better centerfielder. If the team thinks that his bat can improve a little bit and you can potentially fill your biggest need is it an outrageous idea when you consider the potential of adding Mayer, Anthony, Teel and Campbell? There are still unknowns with those four, but even with their limited time in pro ball at least 3 of the 4 look to be upgrades over what is on the current roster. To me it's the sum of the parts vs the one player.

What would be an even better upgrade for the current roster would be keeping the cheap team controlled star and trading away 1 of those 4 unproven players. Several of them can still be upgrades without moving your best player.

 

[YTF]

What would be an even better upgrade for the current roster would be keeping the cheap team controlled star and trading away 1 of those 4 unproven players. Several of them can still be upgrades without moving your best player.

Sure but it takes two to tango. Seattle has often been mentioned in these threads, but the truth be told I think that any team that is willing to trade a young, cost controlled, MLB tested pitcher is likely willing to do so because they a looking for their "missing piece" and not prospects.

 

[scottyno]

Sure but it takes two to tango. Seattle has often been mentioned in these threads, but the truth be told I think that any team that is willing to trade a young, cost controlled, MLB tested pitcher is likely willing to do so because they a looking for their "missing piece" and not prospects.

Dylan Cease was traded 6 months ago for prospects. What they're looking for depends entirely on the team trading them. Would Seattle prefer Duran? Sure most likely, because he's really fucking good and they're trying to win now. Some other teams aren't.

 

[YTF]

Dylan Cease was traded 6 months ago for prospects. What they're looking for depends entirely on the team trading them. Would Seattle prefer Duran? Sure most likely, because he's really fucking good and they're trying to win now. Some other teams aren't.

I'm not saying that it can't or shouldn't be done. I'm saying that if you have the right trade partner, losing Duran isn't going to sink the franchise.

 

[Fishy1]

So Duran is completely untouchable? What if Cherington calls up and asks you for a Paul Skenes for Duran one-for-one swap. You'd do it, right? I don't think that this is remotely close to happening unless Cherington gets a coconut off the skull, but there are players that you'd trade Duran for, right?

As far as just "spending money and trading prospects", sure I'm down with that. But the Red Sox have shown that they don't want to just spend money or send prospects for good pitching. At least during the last six years.

The trades that you shown as your examples like Ramirez and Sanibel for Lowell and Beckett or Kopech and Moncada for Sale are not just small potatoes for a big guy. Ramirez was the number 10 rated prospect in all of baseball in 2005 and was the Sox top prospect in the system. Sanchez was top ten at one point. Moncada was at one point the number one prospect in all of MLB in 2016. Kopech was top ten (I believe) in the Red Sox system. Just saying that the Red Sox traded two prospects for two aces twice (and BTW, Mike Lowell was considered a poison pill -- no one thought that he'd bounce back the way he did) is disengenuous.

I am not as versed on current prospects as others are, but my guess is that if you want a front line starter, you'd probably have to give up Anthony or Teel (I think Mayer is starting to look like damaged goods, though I hope that isn't true) and another top ten prospect. I'm not sure why you'd want to clean out the cubbard for one pitcher while Duran might be able to do the job for you, but this isn't quite as cut-and-dried as you're making this to appear.

The funny thing is I'm usually the guy screaming to trade off all rookies that aren't nailed down. But at this point, I'd trade Duran and keep the

Just following up on this. I never said Duran was completely untouchable. If I were to deal him, it would be in his last couple arbitration years, when Anthony and co have settled in hopefully. Until then, he's just too valuable to a team thats trying to compete. If Anthony or Campbell struggle to adjust for a while and we've dealt Duran, we're back to basement dwelling. (And no, Casas isn't going to replace Duran because he plays the least valuable defensive position and he's a hugely negative value as a baserunner).

And I know Hanley wasnt small potatoes. I'm aware if his status as a prospect. But he and Moncada and Kopech are examples of prospects being dealt, rather than top ten players. That was my entire point. I'm not sure how you could have missed that unless you're willfully misreading me. I would be happy to ship off Mayer for a top pitcher, because for every Hanley that turns into a monster you have your Moncadas and Kopech's who struggle to stay healthy or effective. Duran meanwhile is a top ten player right now. The outcome Duran has achieved is extraordinary, and Mayer is unlikely to reach it. Again: thats my whole point.

But more than I would like to ship those guys out I would like to just ship out worse prospets or sign someone. We don't have to 'clean out the cubbard." You've latched on to the Sale and Beckett deals because those are examples of top pitchers being dealt for top prospects, while ignoring that guys like Cease and Verlander and Glasnow and others went for way less than that.

We don't HAVE to deal our top prospects to get the pitching we want. We don't HAVE to deal Duran either. Nick Yorke, an unranked prospect, got us young, if unproven cost-controlled pitching. Again, look at the Dylan Cease deal for comparison. Cease is very comparable to Kirby/Gilbert, and Chicago basically got a few unranked (if exciting) prospects. All I'm saying is we don't have to trade our best stuff to get what we want. We can keep our great prospects AND our top-ten player. We can win AND rebuild.

The problem with pitcher WAR doesn't arise out of the fact that pitchers and position players play a different amount of games. (Especially when you consider the fact that position players only get a few chances to help their teams win every game. Tanner Houck has faced 710 batters this season and had 47 defensive chances, while Rafael Devers has made 542 plate appearances and had 272 chances.) The problem with pitcher WAR (both versions, though bWAR is particularly bad) is that it's a garbage stat that makes so many assumptions that it basically makes things up. Joe Posnanski, for one, has written about the issues with pitcher WAR over and over, and he did it again last week.

Simply pointing to WAR and seeing "see, this guy has more value!" is just about the laziest, most irresponsible thing a fan or member of the media can do these days.

Sorry to have been lazy and irresponsible. I appreciate the callout and will avoid using WAR as lazy shorthand. There's a lot of merit to your argument here, but I would note the bar IS lower for pitchers in terms of value. They may have as many chances, but it's easier to get guys out than it is to get on base. If hitting were as easy as pitching, the average on-base percentage would be .500.

Starting pitchers are nonetheless hugely valuable, I just think it's very hard for them to be as valuable as guys like Duran who excel on both sides of the field.

 

[Fishy1]

I'm not saying that it can't or shouldn't be done. I'm saying that if you have the right trade partner, losing Duran isn't going to sink the franchise.

And our point isn't that it would sink the franchise but set the franchise back unnecessarily. We can still get a nice return for Duran in his last couple years of arbitration, once Campbell and Anthony are hopefully rocking and rolling. In the meantime, we can sign pitching or send off prospects for pitching without hurting the big league team.

We send off Duran and get back Gilbert+ and we've made a lateral move. We're no better than we were before we made the deal- the roster is more "balanced", yes, but the offense has lost its very best. It also has ripple effects- it forces Ceddanne into center field full time rather the super-sub role he'd have next year otherwise (exposing him and our eyeballs to 700 plat appearances of .280 OBP), and it forces Anthony into a full-time role straightaway with no one behind him if he falters - which might work out, and might not.

We just don't need to deal Duran yet. We don't need to deal our top prospects either. We can get good pitchers without mortgaging the future or hurting next year's team. It happens all the time.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

How often is good young pitching traded for packages that don’t include even younger pitching, though? I suspect that’s the primary reason the Sox have not been in on any of the top pitchers traded in recent years and think it will continue to be a problem this offseason.

 

[sean1562]

The Mariners outfield is like the one part of their offense they do have locked up as well. They have Julio Rodriguez in CF, they just traded for Randy Arozarena who isn't a FA until 2027, and Victor Robles is somehow good now, with a .818 OPS. Where would Duran play, RF? Their big offense problem is that they have no competent infielders. They need a SS, 2B, and 3B, not another CF. They should be in on Adames and Bregman, not trading an ace for another OF.

 

[Fishy1]

How often is good young pitching traded for packages that don’t include even younger pitching, though? I suspect that’s the primary reason the Sox have not been in on any of the top pitchers traded in recent years and think it will continue to be a problem this offseason.

That's a good question, I'm not sure.

Guys like Perales, Sandlin, Fitts, Priester, Monegro, Coffey, or Dobbins (in roughly that order, I'm sure I'm leaving people out) are probably the best of our best--but yeah, none of them are probably exciting enough to entice anyone. They're all Fitts-level prospects, and we saw what that got the Yankees. We got Sandlin for Schreiber, basically.

I could, on the other hand, see someone like Kutter being part of a package for a better pitcher to a team a lower payroll ceiling. Older, yes, but effective, not arb eligible till 2026 or a free agent till 2029... I don't know, I can sort of squint and see it. Criswell, too--he's not great, but he's got a nice FIP and xERA, he doesn't really walk anybody, and he's not arb eligible till 2027. But yeah, they're not mind-blowing options, and if we want a top-flight pitcher, they're not gonna cut it, I don't think.

It was Pepiot and Deluca for Glasnow, for what that's worth. I can't really see any of our AAA or AA prospects being evaluated as good as Pepiot, for example. We've certainly got the position players, though -- besides the big four prospects, guys like David Hamilton, Ceddanne, and Wilyer would have a lot of other teams salivating, and we've got others who could step into their place without hurting next year's chances too much. I could see a lot of teams declaring David Hamilton their starting second baseman, for example, or planting Ceddane or Wilyer in their outfield permanently. I could see us doing that too, but we may have better options.

 

[chawson]

View: https://twitter.com/pitchprofiler/status/1832087870208704552?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDA


For those of us who have looked longingly at Seattle’s rotation, this is useful context as we consider trades this winter. Here’s the graphic in full.




The batters eye and other park factors at T-Mobile Park play up whiffs to an extraordinary degree, higher than anywhere. (Seattle is reportedly looking to change the batters eye this coming winter.)

Meanwhile, Fenway’s park factor greatly diminishes whiffs, more than any park in baseball.

As it stands, Mariners starters are always going to look substantially better than ours. But are they?

 

[Max Power]

What would the Red Sox hitters' strikeout rate look like if Fenway weren't the easiest park in the majors to make contact in? They're already terrible.

 

[simplicio]

Logan Gilbert
Home: 2.35 ERA, 2.73 FIP
Away: 3.95 ERA, 3.48 FIP

George Kirby
Home: 2.94, 2.14
Away: 4.10, 4.11

Bryce Miller
Home: 2.03, 2.39
Away: 4.44, 5.10

Luis Castillo
Home: 3.15, 3.23
Away: 4.18, 4.89

Bryan Woo
Home: 1.50, 2.35
Away: 3.00, 4.01

____________________

Tanner Houck
Home: 3.33, 3.55
Away: 3.12, 3.10

Kutter Crawford:
Home: 4.06, 3.82
Away: 4.10, 5.50

Nick Pivetta:
Home: 4.61, 3.16
Away: 4.19, 4.86

Brayan Bello:
Home: 4.92, 4.39
Away: 4.58, 4.27

Cooper Criswell:
Home: 3.83, 4.43
Away: 4.43, 3.45

 

[YTF]

And our point isn't that it would sink the franchise but set the franchise back unnecessarily. We can still get a nice return for Duran in his last couple years of arbitration, once Campbell and Anthony are hopefully rocking and rolling. In the meantime, we can sign pitching or send off prospects for pitching without hurting the big league team.

We send off Duran and get back Gilbert+ and we've made a lateral move. We're no better than we were before we made the deal- the roster is more "balanced", yes, but the offense has lost its very best. It also has ripple effects- it forces Ceddanne into center field full time rather the super-sub role he'd have next year otherwise (exposing him and our eyeballs to 700 plat appearances of .280 OBP), and it forces Anthony into a full-time role straightaway with no one behind him if he falters - which might work out, and might not.

We just don't need to deal Duran yet. We don't need to deal our top prospects either. We can get good pitchers without mortgaging the future or hurting next year's team. It happens all the time.

Agree to disagree. FWIW I'm not necessarily a proponent of moving Duran, but I'm definitely open to the idea of it. I'm guessing there is a very limited number of teams that would be willing to move good, young, cost controlled arms with some level of MLB success. What it will take to pry that type of player from that type of team will depend on where said team sees itself over the course of the next few years. Do they want or need an MLB ready impact player or are they looking for prospects to bolster longer range plans. I see the Sox 2025 season as one where the team's next window of post season opportunity begins to open. I think most of us agree that this coming season the Sox need to address their pitching needs as this window opens. Much like last year I think the team needs to find a bonafide top of the rotation arm as well as another middle of the rotation type. IMO one should come via free agency and the other via trade. IF you move Duran it should be for the former and not the latter. If you are able to get that top of the rotation guy via FA or trade for prospects sweet, but if it takes Duran or any package that includes another projected starter I think you listen and give it serious consideration.

 

[E5 Yaz]

What would the Red Sox hitters' strikeout rate look like if Fenway weren't the easiest park in the majors to make contact in? They're already terrible.

Yikes.
Meanwhile what would Tarik Skubal's pitching line look like if he was pitching in Safeco, instead of #31 Comerica?

 

[chawson]

What would the Red Sox hitters' strikeout rate look like if Fenway weren't the easiest park in the majors to make contact in? They're already terrible.

Rafaela’s swing and miss skews the data a lot here.

The Red Sox prioritize bat speed and not every team does these days. Another way to look at it is, Since Fenway is a park that disproportionately rewards hard contact, why would the Red Sox try to hit singles?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I’ll share this again…the Red Sox batting splits at Fenway are ridiculous.

RHB: 231/296/368 (29.2% K)
LHB: 268/336/456 (23.1% K)

Fenway is an “extreme hitters park”, yet Sox RHB have a 664 OPS. Overall, Sox hitters have a 740 OPS at home and 760 away.

Now, part of this is how the team was designed- they don’t really have much in the way of good RH batters….but the guys they do have have not been good at home and the strikeouts have been a massive problem.

O’Neill: 211 / 289 /451 (40% K rate!)
Rafaela: 245 / 280 / 284 (25% K rate)
Refsnyder: 244 / 348 / 348 (29% K rate)
Wong: 278 / 345 / 434 (22% K rate)
Romy: 246 / 324 / 344 (27% K rate)

 

[Max Power]

Rafaela’s swing and miss skews the data a lot here.

The Red Sox prioritize bat speed and not every team does these days. Another way to look at it is, Since Fenway is a park that disproportionately rewards hard contact, why would the Red Sox try to hit singles?

I think you read everything exactly backwards. Fenway is the easiest park in the majors to make contact in, yet the Red Sox swing and miss just to stay in shape.

 

[chawson]

I think you read everything exactly backwards. Fenway is the easiest park in the majors to make contact in, yet the Red Sox swing and miss just to stay in shape.

And they’re 4th in MLB in OPS and 6th in hard-hit rate. Seems like a fine trade off. Would you be happier if they swung gentler and hit more two-hoppers to second base?

Again, whatever premise you’re starting from about the team is disproportionately skewed by Rafaela, who is second on the team in games played and has an absurd whiff rate in his rookie year. Everyone else is a little above league average (O’Neill, Devers, Casas, Wong, Abreu), a little below (Duran, Refsnyder, Hamilton), and well below (Yoshida).

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

And they’re 4th in MLB in OPS and 6th in hard-hit rate. Seems like a fine trade off. Would you be happier if they swung gentler and hit more two-hoppers to second base?

Again, whatever premise you’re starting from about the team is disproportionately skewed by Rafaela, who is second on the team in games played and has an absurd strikeout rate in his rookie year. Everyone else is a little above league average (O’Neill, Devers, Casas, Wong, Abreu), a little below (Duran, Refsnyder, Hamilton), and well below (Yoshida).

O’Neill has a 40% K rate at home. None of the teams right handed hitters have hit at Fenway, with the exception of Wong- and that’s still a 779 OPS.

 

[mikcou]

And they’re 4th in MLB in OPS and 6th in hard-hit rate. Seems like a fine trade off. Would you be happier if they swung gentler and hit more two-hoppers to second base?

Again, whatever premise you’re starting from about the team is disproportionately skewed by Rafaela, who is second on the team in games played and has an absurd strikeout rate in his rookie year. Everyone else is a little above league average (O’Neill, Devers, Casas, Wong, Abreu), a little below (Duran, Refsnyder, Hamilton), and well below (Yoshida).

How is O'Neill only a bit above league average strikeout rate? He has a 33% K rate!

 

[chawson]

How is O'Neill only a bit above league average strikeout rate? He has a 33% K rate!

I meant whiff rate, which is what the discussion was about, but you’re right that I wrote strikeout rate in that post re Rafaela. I’ve corrected it.

O’Neill’s whiff rate is pretty high at 13.9%, and his overall strikeout rate is quite high at 33.9%. League average is 11.0%. I also don’t care, because O’Neill has been an incredibly valuable bat with a 132 wRC+.

 

[chawson]

O’Neill has a 40% K rate at home. None of the teams right handed hitters have hit at Fenway, with the exception of Wong- and that’s still a 779 OPS.

Correct and I hope it’s something they’ll address. They badly need a RHH bopper and while O’Neill has overall been really good this year, they haven’t adequately replaced the right-handed thump of Betts, Bogaerts, and Martinez.

Still, let’s be clear that these days, “the team’s right-handed hitters” only refers to a very limited number of dudes.

O’Neill’s struggles at home are puzzling. I think everyone expected otherwise! But while I wouldn’t say that bad right-handed hitting at Fenway isn’t a problem, I don’t see that there’s much correlation with the team’s offensive production overall.

% of pitches thrown to BOS RHB | BOS team wRC+ overall
2017 - 58.8% | 91 wRC+
2018 - 53.3% | 111 wRC+
2019 - 56.1% | 106 wRC+
2020 - 59.5% | 105 wRC+
2021 - 66.0% | 105 wRC+
2022 - 61.7% | 102 wRC+
2023 - 47.0% | 99 wRC+
2024 - 42.1% | 105 wRC+

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The last two years they’ve been lousy at home; wonder if the lefty heavy lineup is somehow a factor?