72 Suburbs in Search of a City: Anthony Davis to Los Angeles Lakers

[ManicCompression]

This trade catapulted the Lakers to be odds-on favorite to win the 2019-20 Championship...….let's put our green glasses aside and not sound like we are sore losers here. It sucks but this is where AD wanted to land and the Lakers got lucky in the lottery to provide them with an enormous trade chip to add to a deal. Saying that the Lakers "blew" anything reeks of sour grapes.

How is anyone being a sore loser here? The Lakers got Davis - he's an incredible, top five talent. They also have zero guards on their roster right now. Outside of Davis, the players they do have are severely deficient on defense. They don't have shooters. They're entering a competitive free agent market where half the teams in the league have space. They can't make a trade using draft picks for the next 5 years and even if they could this year, they can't attach it to salary because any player they sign this summer is by default a rotation player on their team. Lebron has played the third most minutes all-time and even though he's in amazing shape, he doesn't get to sit in a pocket like Brady - time comes for everyone.

There are a lot of reasons to be skeptical about this team. We won't know the full impact of this trade until after free agency, but it's hard to look at last year's haul and think that the Lakers are going to deftly navigate the market. I guess there's a scenario where they fill their rotation with bargain two-way players, but how many of those guys are out there and how many will be at a low enough price tag for them? If we're sitting there in November with Rondo and Austin Rivers as the starting backcourt, I think Lakers fans should be a little concerned about their championship aspirations.

This is like buying a dream house that you can't afford. Great, you own a house, now you're swimming in so much debt that you won't even get to enjoy it.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Let's say Kemba doesn't sign with the Lakers. Can they poach Middleton, Harris, or Brogdon? Do they try to get Redick for a little less?

The other upper-end guys are bigs and that seems like the wrong play for the Lakers. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

Jimmy Butler wants a ring.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

How is anyone being a sore loser here? The Lakers got Davis - he's an incredible, top five talent. They also have zero guards on their roster right now. Outside of Davis, the players they do have are severely deficient on defense. They don't have shooters. They're entering a competitive free agent market where half the teams in the league have space. They can't make a trade using draft picks for the next 5 years and even if they could this year, they can't attach it to salary because any player they sign this summer is by default a rotation player on their team. Lebron has played the third most minutes all-time and even though he's in amazing shape, he doesn't get to sit in a pocket like Brady - time comes for everyone.

There are a lot of reasons to be skeptical about this team. We won't know the full impact of this trade until after free agency, but it's hard to look at last year's haul and think that the Lakers are going to deftly navigate the market. I guess there's a scenario where they fill their rotation with bargain two-way players, but how many of those guys are out there and how many will be at a low enough price tag for them? If we're sitting there in November with Rondo and Austin Rivers as the starting backcourt, I think Lakers fans should be a little concerned about their championship aspirations.

This is like buying a dream house that you can't afford. Great, you own a house, now you're swimming in so much debt that you won't even get to enjoy it.

Not speaking for HRB but the Lakers now have have two reasons, plus a much easier path to the finals, for ring chasers to latch on to vs chasing money.

Everyone who says that the Lakers have a lot of work left to do on their roster is spot on. However, I suspect they will have an easier time finding good fits this season than last given the addition of Davis and the decimation of Golden State. At this point, I wouldn't bet against them putting together a credible rotation around LeBron and AD.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The thing is that the Nets really shouldn't have tanked as badly as they did. That was a long tail outcome and really unexpected (by me at least). It worked out great for the Celtics but really we are talking about 99th percentile outcomes here.

I should go back and find that trade thread but I could have sworn many of us were giddy about the value of those draft picks due to the timing of KG and Pierce’s demise.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Not speaking for HRB but the Lakers now have have two reasons, plus a much easier path to the finals, for ring chasers to latch on to vs chasing money.

Everyone who says that the Lakers have a lot of work left to do on their roster is spot on. However, I suspect they will have an easier time finding good fits this season than last given the addition of Davis and the decimation of Golden State. At this point, I wouldn't bet against them putting together a credible rotation around LeBron and AD.

Not only that but there are a TON of quality role players available as FA. The Lakers top choice is obv Kemba but he LOVES the city of Charlotte while embracing it as his home. He’s practically pleading for MJ to offer him a contract by publicly announcing he wouldn’t require the Supermax to stay.

If Kemba isn’t an option the Lakers could split up the $23m to add two rotation players like one of DeMarre Carroll/Ariza and Collison/Rose/Beverley. Then they could add other veterans to the mix on the cheap with shooting and versatility being the priorities......Seth Curry, Ellington, JGreen, Ian Clark, Austin Rivers, etc etc. These names don’t sound sexy but when you’re so top heavy with two of the best 5-6 players in the game they don’t have to be......they simply have to play off of them.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Teams with multiple 2nd round draft picks:

Sixers
Hawks
Hornets
Pelicans
Kings
Clippers

Might there be an opportunity for them to buy a pick or two and hope they strike it rich with a bench contributor?

 

[ManicCompression]

Not speaking for HRB but the Lakers now have have two reasons, plus a much easier path to the finals, for ring chasers to latch on to vs chasing money.

Everyone who says that the Lakers have a lot of work left to do on their roster is spot on. However, I suspect they will have an easier time finding good fits this season than last given the addition of Davis and the decimation of Golden State. At this point, I wouldn't bet against them putting together a credible rotation around LeBron and AD.

I totally get that, but it's certainly not a given at this point and there are, to me, as many if not more routes for the Lakers to surround these guys with a disappointing cast instead of a credible ensemble. The ring chasing vet normally makes for a great 8th man, not your fourth best player.

And I just don't see Kemba, or any of these borderline max guys, sacrificing that much money to sign in LA. It could mean the difference of $50-$100 million over the life of the contract and none of the names mentioned can make up for that sacrifice with a shoe deal, like Lebron or Durant.

That said, I can't wait for the draft and FA to see how this all settles out.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I should go back and find that trade thread but I could have sworn many of us were giddy about the value of those draft picks due to the timing of KG and Pierce’s demise.

The point is that BRK had a ton of cap space and if they really wanted to, they could have signed decent but not great veterans and made a run at 35 wins, which would have really impacted the Cs. Instead, they had a plan to use their cap space to leverage talent and draft picks but the consequence of that was that the Cs got high draft picks. So as Bowiac mentioned above, it really was a perfect storm.

 

[bowiac]

Not only that but there are a TON of quality role players available as FA. The Lakers top choice is obv Kemba but he LOVES the city of Charlotte while embracing it as his home. He’s practically pleading for MJ to offer him a contract by publicly announcing he wouldn’t require the Supermax to stay.

If Kemba isn’t an option the Lakers could split up the $23m to add two rotation players like one of DeMarre Carroll/Ariza and Collison/Rose/Beverley. Then they could add other veterans to the mix on the cheap with shooting and versatility being the priorities......Seth Curry, Ellington, JGreen, Ian Clark, Austin Rivers, etc etc. These names don’t sound sexy but when you’re so top heavy with two of the best 5-6 players in the game they don’t have to be......they simply have to play off of them.

Lets say things go great, and they land Beverley and Ariza. Do you think Beverley, Ariza, LeBron, Kuzma, AD, and a bench of like Seth Curry, Ian Clark, and Austin Rivers is a title contender?

AD is great, but he's not magic. The Pelicans were 21-25 with him before he decided to shut it down. And that team had other quality NBA players on it, guys like Mirotic, Jrue Holiday, Julius Randle. etc... And the Lakers themselves went just 28-27 with LeBron last year, and again, that was with a lot of guys who aren't on the roster anymore, and of course, with a 34 year old LeBron instead of a 35 year old.

I just ran some back-of-the-envelope numbers, and that looks like roughly a +1 margin of victory team to me in the regular season. That's assuming 70 games from LeBron, and 75 from AD there. That's roughly the same quality as the Clippers in the regular season last year. They improve a bit with a shorter rotation in the playoffs (to around +2), but so does everyone. That team doesn't look close to contention to me.

 

[Kliq]

Even if the Lakers fill out the rotation with some solid players, I think crowning them title favorites or top contenders is rash. Golden State will be greatly hampered next season, but there is still a wall of really good teams in the West. Nobody is talking about any of them, but Durant/Klay going down is a boon to Denver/Portland/OKC/Houston/Utah as teams that suddenly had the monster in their conference vanquished.

 

[benhogan]

Lets say things go great, and they land Beverley and Ariza. Do you think Beverley, Ariza, LeBron, Kuzma, AD, and a bench of like Seth Curry, Ian Clark, and Austin Rivers is a title contender?

AD is great, but he's not magic. The Pelicans were 21-25 with him before he decided to shut it down. And that team had other quality NBA players on it, guys like Mirotic, Jrue Holiday, Julius Randle. etc... And the Lakers themselves went just 28-27 with LeBron last year, and again, that was with a lot of guys who aren't on the roster anymore, and of course, with a 34 year old LeBron instead of a 35 year old.

I just ran some back-of-the-envelope numbers, and that looks like roughly a +1 margin of victory team to me in the regular season. That's assuming 70 games from LeBron, and 75 from AD there. That's roughly the same quality as the Clippers in the regular season last year. They improve a bit with a shorter rotation in the playoffs (to around +2), but so does everyone. That team doesn't look close to contention to me.

This post is gold...

re-kindling my Lakerfreude after a few days off

 

[lovegtm]

Sam, you seem like a legitimately cool dude, so don't take this as a shot at you - but if one more person in this thread compares Dwight Howard to Davis, I'm going to blow a blood vessel.

Man, memories are short. People really don't remember how good Howard was OR how good he was expected to make both the Lakers and the Rockets. Everyone thought the Rockets had a perennial championship contender when they signed him, and for good reason.

He was a better defender than Davis, and a force of nature on offense, even without post moves or a jumper. Prime Dwight Howard + shooters was a formula for having one of the best teams in the NBA. That Orlando team easily could have won 1-2 championships with some better breaks.

The fact that Davis has a jumper should help him age a lot better, and he's a better offensive player, but he has work to do to get to Howard's level defensively, and he's never come close to taking teams as far in either the regular season or the playoffs. Dwight wasn't doing this against a shitty East either: LeBron and the Garnett teams were constantly in his way, and the Bulls were legit too.

 

[NoXInNixon]

The Lakers aren't the most likely team to win the NBA title next year, and I don't think Vegas thinks they are either. The line is what it is because there must be a ton of stupid Lakers fans who think they are.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

What I vividly remember about Dwight Howard is that the season before he got traded to the Lakers, he was just crushing it. He was phenomenal. He was phenomenal that is until he suffered a back injury in March or April. He was never the same after that and I also think he started getting injured more often whereas before he was an ironman.

It would be wrong to assume that just because the Lakers got a star who was never the same after his injuries, the same would happen with Davis. It definitely could however.

On the Pelicans side, to reiterate the point I made before, the Pelicans made a lot of small bets at the roulette table. This includes Ingram and Ball. However, finding a commonly accepted definition of victory in this trade is a bit of a problem. One way to look at it is to look at in terms of production. One way of measuring production is to see if whether one of the players and picks the Pelicans made gets to be as productive as Davis is from this point forward. Another is to compare whether all the pieces the Pelicans accumulated are as productive as Davis and the free agents the Lakers sign from now (due to the restrictions they placed on themselves because of the trade). Last but not least, it can be argued and it is argued that even if the Pelicans get more production from their pieces over the next years than the Lakers do, the Lakers still do better if they win at least a title (i.e. manage to concentrate their production on a couple of years, while sucking the rest of the time).

Given all of this, it seems to me, it's very tough to come to a clearcut conclusion about who did better and that's even before we get to the final factor which complicates things even further. What we will experience over the next few years is just one out of literally thousands of possibilities. It is quite possible that the runout of events will produce a seemingly clear winner. And yet, the trade needs to be judged not on the one outcome we experienced, but on the probabilities each side took. To put it another way.

We need to judge the quality of the bets, not the outcome. That's quite difficult because it's tough to reach an agreed set of criteria and it's almost impossible to objectively assign probabilities on each outcome. And once we experience an outcome we will all suffer from hindsight bias.

I guess that's a longwinded way of saying let's all chill out a bit, trying to determine a winner is a bit of a fool's errant?

 

[lovegtm]

What I vividly remember about Dwight Howard is that the season before he got traded to the Lakers, he was just crushing it. He was phenomenal. He was phenomenal that is until he suffered a back injury in March or April. He was never the same after that and I also think he started getting injured more often whereas before he was an ironman.

It would be wrong to assume that just because the Lakers got a star who was never the same after his injuries, the same would happen with Davis. It definitely could however.

On the Pelicans side, to reiterate the point I made before, the Pelicans made a lot of small bets at the roulette table. This includes Ingram and Ball. However, finding a commonly accepted definition of victory in this trade is a bit of a problem. One way to look at it is to look at in terms of production. One way of measuring production is to see if whether one of the players and picks the Pelicans made gets to be as productive as Davis is from this point forward. Another is to compare whether all the pieces the Pelicans accumulated are as productive as Davis and the free agents the Lakers sign from now (due to the restrictions they placed on themselves because of the trade). Last but not least, it can be argued and it is argued that even if the Pelicans get more production from their pieces over the next years than the Lakers do, the Lakers still do better if they win at least a title (i.e. manage to concentrate their production on a couple of years, while sucking the rest of the time).

Given all of this, it seems to me, it's very tough to come to a clearcut conclusion about who did better and that's even before we get to the final factor which complicates things even further. What we will experience over the next few years is just one out of literally thousands of possibilities. It is quite possible that the runout of events will produce a seemingly clear winner. And yet, the trade needs to be judged not on the one outcome we experienced, but on the probabilities each side took. To put it another way.

We need to judge the quality of the bets, not the outcome. That's quite difficult because it's tough to reach an agreed set of criteria and it's almost impossible to objectively assign probabilities on each outcome. And once we experience an outcome we will all suffer from hindsight bias.

I guess that's a longwinded way of saying let's all chill out a bit, trying to determine a winner is a bit of a fool's errant?

You keep making the point that the Pelicans made lots of small bets, when, in fact, they made some small bets on the players (Ingram/Ball), got a blue chip asset in the #4 pick, and then made a bunch of HIGHLY correlated bets on the future picks.

The correlation of those future picks matters in assessing the trade. It means that

1. If the Pelicans hit on those picks, they will hit big, and probably multiple times. This matters in the NBA, where even at the top of the draft outcomes are uncertain, and you want your talent influxes to come in bunches.
2. If the Lakers get in a hole due to injury or age, they have very few ways out of the hole, for the reasons we saw play out in Brooklyn.

Finally, we absolutely can evaluate this trade now, by comparing it to other recent star deals. By that standard, in terms of future equity/expected value, it is an utter heist. It could well work out for the Lakers, but they are on a tightrope now. Most variance is bad for them and good for the Pels. If you want to get Talebian, they have chosen a very fragile path

 

[DJnVa]

Per the dudes on NBA Radio this morning, Kawhi is in play for the Lakers. However there's no indication that AD will waive his $4M trade kicker, which means there's less than $24M available and it's uncertain if Kawhi would take that.

 

[Devizier]

I see this as going one of three ways

1) A minor win for both sides. The most likely outcome -- the Pelicans get the best available package for Davis, rebuild a decent squad supplemented with a new infusion of role players and a bunch of mid-late first round draft picks, while the Lakers field a contender that may not win titles but stanches their current bleeding and restores dignity to a moribund franchise.

2) A big win for the Lakers. The equation changes only slightly for the Pelicans since there's not a whole lot of difference between the 20th and 30th pick in the draft. But the big win for the Lakers would be a title, obviously. This is the second most likely outcome, but considerably less so than (1)

3) A catastrophic loss for the Lakers, and a big win for the Pelicans. This is the upside play for Griffin. If things go pear shaped for the Lakers then this trade is the Nets deal redux. The Lakers don't even need to be as terrible as the Nets were since the draft odds have improved for low lottery teams.

Rough odds would be like 70-20-10 or something.

 

[Captaincoop]

Complete list of things Bill Russell did at an elite level:

Defend
Rebound

Maybe add passing later in his career, but defense is ~75% of the game for a big man.

Man, memories are short. People really don't remember how good Howard was OR how good he was expected to make both the Lakers and the Rockets. Everyone thought the Rockets had a perennial championship contender when they signed him, and for good reason.

He was a better defender than Davis, and a force of nature on offense, even without post moves or a jumper. Prime Dwight Howard + shooters was a formula for having one of the best teams in the NBA. That Orlando team easily could have won 1-2 championships with some better breaks.

The fact that Davis has a jumper should help him age a lot better, and he's a better offensive player, but he has work to do to get to Howard's level defensively, and he's never come close to taking teams as far in either the regular season or the playoffs. Dwight wasn't doing this against a shitty East either: LeBron and the Garnett teams were constantly in his way, and the Bulls were legit too.

This isn't the Dwight Howard thread, but I can't let this go.

A force of nature on offense? A force of nature should score more than 18-20 points per game.

And, of course, the other issue in this comparison is that Kobe tore his Achilles that year. If Lebron blows a tire like that, sure, one or more of the Laker picks could be good.

As it stands now, there's as much a chance the Pelicans keep their own pick instead of even taking the swap in 2023/4.

Listening to a pod yesterday, I was reminded that the 2022 draft is likely the year HS players are eligible again. Getting an extra pick anywhere in that draft is a coup for New Orleans, so that was very smart.

This is going to be interesting to see play out. Lot of different variables in the trade. A bunch depends on whether Lebron continues on the Tom Brady aging plan, or falls off a cliff in the next 18 months like Kobe did.

 

[Captaincoop]

Per the dudes on NBA Radio this morning, Kawhi is in play for the Lakers. However there's no indication that AD will waive his $4M trade kicker, which means there's less than $24M available and it's uncertain if Kawhi would take that.

If AD waives his trade kicker, the NBA players' union should be decertified.

That's $4M in money that is contractually owed to him by the Lakers. There is no way he should just be saying "no, take that money and give it to someone else" in a collective bargaining environment.

 

[lexrageorge]

If AD waives his trade kicker, the NBA players' union should be decertified.

That's $4M in money that is contractually owed to him by the Lakers. There is no way he should just be saying "no, take that money and give it to someone else" in a collective bargaining environment.

The closest parallel would be no-trade provisions found in MLB and NHL. Players can waive them and sometimes do, as they don't want to be forced into staying in a situation that doesn't work for them. So it's not inconceivable that NBA players are allowed to waive their trade kickers.

I agree that there is a difference here in that the trade will happen regardless of Davis' decision; and there is an incentive for the Lakers, and for Davis' agent, to pressure Davis into waiving his $4M. It's a situation that probably wasn't foreseen by the negotiators, and would have been difficult to prevent aside from a blanket "cannot waive the trade kicker" provision, which could cause issues for other players in different situations.

Of course, it's same CBA that has the idiotic and pointless "Rose Rule" which sort of screwed the Celtics over (honestly, who really cares how a team obtains designated players), so the situation is not all that surprising.

 

[Captaincoop]

Agree with all of the above.

Let's also note here that Davis' agent and the Lakers are effectively one entity for these purposes.

The whole thing is a joke, if he waives the trade kicker it's even more of a joke. There's no way he does that without some off-the-books fix by Klutch and the Lakers.

 

[jmm57]

I wouldn’t be too worked up about a guy waiving his trade kicker after throwing a tantrum to get traded to the team he wanted.

 

[soxhop411]

WOJ says Kawhi’s focus is on the Clippers (if he leaves Tor) and that he might not even take a meeting with the lakers
https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/26999549

 

[DJnVa]

WOJ says Kawhi’s focus is on the Clippers (if he leaves Tor) and that he might not even take a meeting with the lakers
https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/26999549

Good.

There was some talk of Butler heading West too.

 

[benhogan]

Good.

There was some talk of Butler heading West too.

If we see Kawhi and Butler head West, will we continue to hear this nonsense about the Eastern Conference getting stronger/improving?

I see plenty of impactful EC players that could move this offseason:
MIL - Brogdon, Lopez, Middleton
PHI - Butler, Harris, Redick
TOR - Kawhi, Green, Gasol
IND - Bog, Young, Joseph, Collison

BRK - if they add Kyrie, then so long Russell

Granted the Warriors have been devasted by injuries, but some see Durant/Klay returning by the 2020 playoffs. Other than that Dallas, Denver, Portland, Sacramento, Clippers and Lakers look like they are improving. Plus the two most impactful draft picks are heading West (Zion, Morant).

Its a zero sum game, if the East is getting stronger than the West is getting that much weaker, and I just don't see it.

 

[InstaFace]

You keep making the point that the Pelicans made lots of small bets, when, in fact, they made some small bets on the players (Ingram/Ball), got a blue chip asset in the #4 pick, and then made a bunch of HIGHLY correlated bets on the future picks.

The correlation of those future picks matters in assessing the trade. It means that

1. If the Pelicans hit on those picks, they will hit big, and probably multiple times. This matters in the NBA, where even at the top of the draft outcomes are uncertain, and you want your talent influxes to come in bunches.
2. If the Lakers get in a hole due to injury or age, they have very few ways out of the hole, for the reasons we saw play out in Brooklyn.

Finally, we absolutely can evaluate this trade now, by comparing it to other recent star deals. By that standard, in terms of future equity/expected value, it is an utter heist. It could well work out for the Lakers, but they are on a tightrope now. Most variance is bad for them and good for the Pels. If you want to get Talebian, they have chosen a very fragile path

This is a very insightful, well-reasoned and well-stated post.

 

[Cellar-Door]

They are picking on behalf of the Pelicans so they are bound to pick Griffin's player.

technically speaking, they aren't bound to do anything, as the trade can't happen and is just a handshake agreement. Of course, backing out of a deal would be disastrous and nobody does it, since no other team would deal with you, you'd piss off every player involved, and all their agents.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Even if the Lakers fill out the rotation with some solid players, I think crowning them title favorites or top contenders is rash. Golden State will be greatly hampered next season, but there is still a wall of really good teams in the West. Nobody is talking about any of them, but Durant/Klay going down is a boon to Denver/Portland/OKC/Houston/Utah as teams that suddenly had the monster in their conference vanquished.

For full disclosure I am planning on hammering the Lakers UNDER for Season Wins as soon as my Outs post them if they remain in the 57-win range that I'm seeing some already have up. AD misses a ton of games every year to minor stuff and LeBron will probably take the Kawhi "load management" route during the regular season which is what I'm expecting. If both are playing once the playoffs begin and their rotation is filled with competent veterans (Ariza, Beverley, Rivers, Collison types) I don't see how they aren't one of the two favorites in the West to advance to the Finals which is why Lakers fans are and should be ecstatic.

Any model that has playoff Lakers one win better than regular season Lakers with a ton of missed games by AD/LeBron is clearly flawed based simply on the expectation of a min of 10-15 games by each player during the RS.

If AD waives his trade kicker, the NBA players' union should be decertified.

That's $4M in money that is contractually owed to him by the Lakers. There is no way he should just be saying "no, take that money and give it to someone else" in a collective bargaining environment.

Was the union decertified when Marc Gasol waived his trade kicker to land in Toronto? These aren't uncommon.

One unrelated comment...….Dwight Howard is a HOF lock based solely on the first half dozen or so years in the NBA when he was First Team All-NBA each season.

 

[BigSoxFan]

For full disclosure I am planning on hammering the Lakers UNDER for Season Wins as soon as my Outs post them if they remain in the 57-win range that I'm seeing some already have up. AD misses a ton of games every year to minor stuff and LeBron will probably take the Kawhi "load management" route during the regular season which is what I'm expecting. If both are playing once the playoffs begin and their rotation is filled with competent veterans (Ariza, Beverley, Rivers, Collison types) I don't see how they aren't one of the two favorites in the West to advance to the Finals.

Any model that has playoff Lakers one win better than regular season Lakers with a ton of missed games by AD/LeBron is clearly flawed based simply on the expectation of a min of 10-15 games by each player during the RS.

And you have the usual year 1 “figuring things out” phase that even prime LeBron/Wade/Bosh couldn’t avoid.

 

[bowiac]

If the Lakers find a way to fill out their rotation with competent players like Ariza and Beverley, then I agree they're live, although probably still a dog to teams like Utah, Houston, Denver, and Golden State. I'm not sure how the cap works out for them to do that however, but I guess we'll see.

 

[lovegtm]

If the Lakers find a way to fill out their rotation with competent players like Ariza and Beverley, then I agree they're live, although probably still a dog to teams like Utah, Houston, Denver, and Golden State. I'm not sure how the cap works out for them to do that however, but I guess we'll see.

Yeah, I see names like Seth Curry and Austin Rivers getting thrown around to round out the rotation AFTER getting Ariza and Beverly. Isn’t it correct that the Lakers only have the room exception and minimums after filling the cap?

 

[bowiac]

Yeah, I see names like Seth Curry and Austin Rivers getting thrown around to round out the rotation AFTER getting Ariza and Beverly. Isn’t it correct that the Lakers only have the room exception and minimums after filling the cap?

My understanding is they'd have the room exception left, which would let them add one more real player (e.g., Bullock or Curry). Beyond that, it's minimums.

 

[lovegtm]

My understanding is they'd have the room exception left, which would let them add one more real player (e.g., Bullock or Curry). Beyond that, it's minimums.

That’s mine as well. That team would literally not be able to afford a single injury at any position—they’d make the 2018 WCF Rockets look deep.

Now, that Rockets team was a bad shooting streak away from the Finals, but that’s a tight line to walk. And they had injuries to Mbah a Moute and CP3 that took them to that thin a rotation. The Lakers will need to have almost unprecedented health.

 

[Kliq]

That’s mine as well. That team would literally not be able to afford a single injury at any position—they’d make the 2018 WCF Rockets look deep.

Now, that Rockets team was a bad shooting streak away from the Finals, but that’s a tight line to walk. And they had injuries to Mbah a Moute and CP3 that took them to that thin a rotation. The Lakers will need to have almost unprecedented health.

Plus, if you are going to be a top-heavy team, you have to hope those top stars play every night and bring it. Davis is going to miss some games, and LeBron only goes about 70 percent during the regular season, so it isn't like they are going to have Harden scoring 30 points in 20 consecutive games or anything carrying them.

 

[lovegtm]

Plus, if you are going to be a top-heavy team, you have to hope those top stars play every night and bring it. Davis is going to miss some games, and LeBron only goes about 70 percent during the regular season, so it isn't like they are going to have Harden scoring 30 points in 20 consecutive games or anything carrying them.

Yeah, if either misses extended time (30-40 games), they probably don’t make the playoffs. Davis’ non LeBron supporting cast is going to be worse than he had in NO (barring a 3rd max guy joining, in which case the rest of the roster will be a 4.8M guy and all min contracts).

I assumed the Lakers were West favs when the deal was made, but the specific needle they have to thread in terms of the cap is brutal. Hopefully Heath Ledger can give them some pointers.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

The whole thing is a joke, if he waives the trade kicker it's even more of a joke. There's no way he does that without some off-the-books fix by NIKE, Klutch and the Lakers.

Fixed this for you.

 

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

I have a feeling over the course of the year they are essentially going to concede some games by resting AD and LeBron together. AD played 33 minutes a game last year, with Diallo, Randle, Mirotic (before the trade) and even a slightly useful Jahlil Okafor picking up the remainder at C/PF. Is LA going to be able to get anyone even that good up front with what they have to spend? He and James are going to have to play a ton of minutes in order for them to win games, it will be interesting to see how they both hold up.

 

[lovegtm]

I have a feeling over the course of the year they are essentially going to concede some games by resting AD and LeBron together. AD played 33 minutes a game last year, with Diallo, Randle, Mirotic (before the trade) and even a slightly useful Jahlil Okafor picking up the remainder at C/PF. Is LA going to be able to get anyone even that good up front with what they have to spend? He and James are going to have to play a ton of minutes in order for them to win games, it will be interesting to see how they both hold up.

The answer to the bolded is “no.” People haven’t fully internalized how thin this team will be, because it’s nearly unprecedented to gut a team to this degree and try to win a title. The Heatles had 3 stars, more role players, and LeBron was way younger.

 

[nattysez]

Lakers are trying to expand Anthony Davis trade and create ability to open max salary slot on July 6, sources tell @BobbyMarks42 and me. Lakers offering contracts of Mo Wagner/Jemerrio Jones/Isaac Bonga to additional teams, so LA can satisfy CBA rules on creating $32M in space.
Lakers are aggressively pursuing the purchase of second-round picks in Thursday's NBA Draft too, league sources tell ESPN. Those picks will offer two important things for LA: acquisition of inexpensive labor and ability to exceed the salary cap with those minimum contracts.

From Woj on Twitter.

3 max guys and a bunch of second-round picks and league-minimum filler is not going to get you a ring without a spectacular amount of luck.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

"offering contracts of Mo Wagner/Jemario Jones/Isaac Bonga" is cute. Maybe if they throw in a pick---oh, wait....

 

[Cellar-Door]

"offering contracts of Mo Wagner/Jemario Jones/Isaac Bonga" is cute. Maybe if they throw in a pick---oh, wait....

technically what they are doing is adding those 3 to the trade to New Orleans, but NO doesn't want to keep them so they are looking for teams that will take them as the extra team, maybe for cash, maybe for distant 2nds and a favor to be named later

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Whether it is that or a straight trade, the point is the same: those guys are not assets....though I can imagine someone taking Wagner for a fake second, I suppose.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Whether it is that or a straight trade, the point is the same: those guys are not assets....though I can imagine someone taking Wagner for a fake second, I suppose.

Yeah, sorry if I wasn't clear, it would be the Lakers giving the distant future 2nds and/or cash, basically they are hoping someone will take them for free, but barring that they'll probably use future 2nds to get it done.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

So, the exact thing I said originally---thanks for catching up though

 

[Bernie Carbohydrate]

From Woj on Twitter.

3 max guys and a bunch of second-round picks and league-minimum filler is not going to get you a ring without a spectacular amount of luck.

Woj hasn't met the Kuzma-Heads in this forum.

 

[Captaincoop]

Woj hasn't met the Kuzma-Heads in this forum.

It's not going to be 3 max guys and filler. More likely 3 max guys, a very solid fourth scoring option/starter (Kuzma), several ring chasing vet minimum guys, and whoever they can sign for the MLE.

That's going to be a good amount of talent. There will always be guys who want to ride Lebron and AD's coattails in LA on what is sure to be a heavily publicized team.

 

[the moops]

They actually only have the room exception I believe, not the MLE

 

[Captaincoop]

They actually only have the room exception I believe, not the MLE

Won't they get it when they sign another max player?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Won't they get it when they sign another max player?

no, they have to be under the cap to sign a player, if you are under the cap at any point in the offseason you can only get the room exception.

 

[djbayko]

It's not going to be 3 max guys and filler. More likely 3 max guys, a very solid fourth scoring option/starter (Kuzma), several ring chasing vet minimum guys, and whoever they can sign for the MLE.

That's going to be a good amount of talent. There will always be guys who want to ride Lebron and AD's coattails in LA on what is sure to be a heavily publicized team.

Has it been determined yet whether the Lakers actually have a max salary slot? The day AD was traded, there were conflicting reports on whether the Lakers had leeway to push the official date out, and if that's been resolved here I missed it.