538 piece on Pedro

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Baka Gaijin
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There
Technically it's on The Best Pitchers of All Time, but basically it's about Pedro. And it's awesome.

Apologies of course if this is already being discussed elsewhere or if this is the wrong place for it but. Had to post it.

Enjoy.
 

SumnerH

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Schilling is #6 on that list?
It's a weird measure, because it's highest peak value averaging performance from beginning of your career to a specified "peak".

So if you come up and struggle badly for a couple of years and then put it together and are absolutely lights out for 5 years in a row, you could have a worse "peak" than someone who comes up and is pretty good out of the gate and remains pretty good for 7 years.

EDIT: If you're rating pitchers on a scale 1-10, by this measure the pitcher whose first 7 years are:
7,8,7,8,8,8,8
has a higher "peak" after 7 years than the one whose first 7 years are:
3,3,8,9,10,10,10
 
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gingerbreadmann

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The Pedro montage video embedded in that article is 15 minutes of boner inducing porn you can watch at work.
It's also a great argument for straightaway camera angles in ballparks. The games in Baltimore and Oakland you can see exactly how goddamn filthy every single one of his pitches is. I really wish Fenway had that camera placement when Pedro was around, but at least there is video of all of his starts so I won't complain too much.
 
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It's a weird measure, because it's highest peak value averaging performance from beginning of your career to a specified "peak".

So if you come up and struggle badly for a couple of years and then put it together and are absolutely lights out for 5 years in a row, you could have a worse "peak" than someone who comes up and is pretty good out of the gate and remains pretty good for 7 years.

EDIT: If you're rating pitchers on a scale 1-10, by this measure the pitcher whose first 7 years are:
7,8,7,8,8,8,8
has a higher "peak" after 7 years than the one whose first 7 years are:
3,3,8,9,10,10,10
I don't think that's true, there's a pull-to-par mechanic with Elo ratings. If you're sub-par (a 3, 3), then every victory during your first "8" year will get you more points than it would if you had started average, or above-average, because your victories (or margins thereof) are less expected coming from a lower-rated player. So there may be a slight retarding of the correction up to peak value, but at the extremes of the peak-value distribution, early-career struggles get obviated pretty quickly.
 

Valek123

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I truly miss every 5th day scheduling out time away from any other event to watch Pedro pitch. His peak was tied to my last two years of college, and allowed me to frequently shoot down to Boston for the games.

Great article, and even though we knew we were watching something amazing each time he took the ball it's amazing to see as advanced analytics come into play just how far above the field he was at that time and historically. He was a magician.

Edit - Christ are we spoiled, just thinking about this for a moment made me reflect on watching Pedro in his prime, Papi, Manny, Brady, Pierce's crew, and the bruins resurgence. Very glad I was born in the late 70's to be old enough to appreciate this wave, yet young enough to be able to attend most of the magic before the kids/life/responsibilities arrived.
 

SumnerH

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I don't think that's true, there's a pull-to-par mechanic with Elo ratings. If you're sub-par (a 3, 3), then every victory during your first "8" year will get you more points than it would if you had started average, or above-average, because your victories (or margins thereof) are less expected coming from a lower-rated player. So there may be a slight retarding of the correction up to peak value, but at the extremes of the peak-value distribution, early-career struggles get obviated pretty quickly.
It's not an Elo metric. It's a running average of game scores, which is also used to help calculate team Elo ratings.

To generate these pitcher adjustments, we’re using a version of Bill James’s game scores proposed by Tangotiger (and slightly modified by us) to isolate pitching performances. After each game, the starting pitcher’s game score is calculated as:

47.4 + 1.5*outs + strikeouts – 2*walks – 2*hits – 3*runs – 4*homeruns

We maintain a running average of these game scores for each pitcher to produce his overall pitcher score
 

FinanceAdvice

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Technically it's on The Best Pitchers of All Time, but basically it's about Pedro. And it's awesome.

Apologies of course if this is already being discussed elsewhere or if this is the wrong place for it but. Had to post it.

Enjoy.
Thanks for enjoyable trip down memory lane. I thank God I had the opportunity to see Pedro pitch at Fenway ( Live in NY). Admittedly totally biased I consider Pedro the greatest pitcher of all-time.

Years ago read a book, Mind Games, from writers of Baseball Prospectus. My argument is that for Runs Allowed Adjusted he dominated in 2000 with the best single season RA+with 293, ninth in 1999 at 225. But more importantly for pitchers over 1,500 IP, he ranked the best at 163, besting other greats Walter Johnson, Randy Johnson, Sandy Koufax, Cy Young. Interestingly enough Schilling was 19th on that list.
 

SumnerH

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It's not an Elo metric. It's a running average of game scores, which is also used to help calculate team Elo ratings.
I implemented it (without their undocumented adjustment for era) and ran for Schilling; he comes it within a few points of their final rating. I'll check a few other pitchers later this weekend.
 

Leather

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Yet he was a slugger compared to his teammate Jay Buhner, who literally gave up.
 

ifmanis5

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Surprised to see Gooden's 1986 on one of those lists when the general consensus was that he was more peak-y in '84 and '85.
 

SumnerH

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Surprised to see Gooden's 1986 on one of those lists when the general consensus was that he was more peak-y in '84 and '85.
It's cumulative, and only goes to May of '86. So it includes the 84/85 seasons and the first 6 games of 1986, during which he put up a 1.04 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 39Ks and 8BB in 52 IP.
 

ifmanis5

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It's cumulative, and only goes to May of '86. So it includes the 84/85 seasons and the first 6 games of 1986, during which he put up a 1.04 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 39Ks and 8BB in 52 IP.
Jesus. Cocaine is a helleva drug. Gooden, Strawberry and Derrick Coleman are probably the biggest squanders of my lifetime.
 

BaseballJones

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Jesus. Cocaine is a helleva drug. Gooden, Strawberry and Derrick Coleman are probably the biggest squanders of my lifetime.
Coleman could have been one of the greatest of all time, I think. As it was, he was still a pretty terrific NBA player, despite "wasting" his talents. His first five seasons he averaged 20 points and almost 11 rebounds, to go along with 3 assists and 1.6 blocks. Ended up playing in 15 seasons, making an all-star team and the 3rd team all-NBA team twice.

If you got that out of your 1st round draft pick today, you might consider it a "waste", but there have been plenty of top picks that haven't had anything remotely resembling that good a career.
 

TheRooster

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And yet nearly everyone who saw him play considers him a waste. Gives an indication of just how much talent was there.
 

Dotrat

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And yet nearly everyone who saw him play considers him a waste. Gives an indication of just how much talent was there.
I agree. The waste of Coleman's otherwise more-than-respectable career is that there wasn't a skill he lacked. His versatility was near Bird-esque, only he was stronger and, I think, had greater athleticism. He had a low post game, could hit 10-15 foot jumpers, pass, and rebound. He had enough talent to have potentially been ranked as one of the 10-15 best of all time. So while not a waste on the level of, say, Benoit Benjamin, he did little enough to make the best of his extraordinary skills. "Whoopde-damn-do."
 

BroodsSexton

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A bit of a tangent...My 11-year-old son just started throwing a change-up, and was having an absolute blast this afternoon in practice, mixing fastballs with a change. I was catching him, and I have to say I was impressed (of course I was, I'm his dad). His coach is awesome, and had him throwing with both a noticeable change in speed, and even a little bit of a tail.

Which of course got us all to talking about Pedro. I'm looking for an educational video to show him just how awesome Pedro was with a fastball and changeup. All the kids want to throw curves, sliders, cutters, etc. I would love to watch my son just focus on fastball and change, with location, for now. And I would like him to have the confidence of saying "that's how Pedro did it." There's lots of Pedro highlight reels out there, showing K after K--but does anyone have the definitive video to teach a kid about the greatness of Pedro? Ideally it would have Pedro talking about pitching, hitters talking about facing him, and expert analysis of at-bats. Something like that.
 
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I recall a video shortly after the HOF election results were made, where Pedro, Smoltz and Johnson were all on MLB Network (I think it was), and they focused on Pedro's hands and he talked a bit about his grip. It was a short clip. I think the SportsCentury on Pedro might be your best bet, now that I think about it - he talks about his grip, there are quotes from other players talking about what it was like facing him at his peak, etc. Maybe someone around here has a copy of it saved somewhere.
 

tbrep

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Was it more common in the late 90s/early 00s to get that outside pitch called for a strike - or was there a Mariano-like reverence for Pedros location?

On a side note, watching as a neutral, I remember being pissed that Davis hit a HR in that 17K game. Otherwise I'd have been able to tell my kids I watched the greatest pitching performance of all time live from start to finish.
 

HriniakPosterChild

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Was it more common in the late 90s/early 00s to get that outside pitch called for a strike - or was there a Mariano-like reverence for Pedros location?
Yes, it was more common.

When MLB started to install cameras in ballparks to see how well the umpires were doing their jobs behind the plate, Arizona was among the first to get them. And after a frustrating day on the mound, Curt Schilling modified one with a bat. (Think Papi in the Baltimore dugout if you have trouble visualizing this.)
 

Bozo Texino

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All the kids want to throw curves, sliders, cutters, etc. I would love to watch my son just focus on fastball and change, with location, for now. And I would like him to have the confidence of saying "that's how Pedro did it."
You'd also be putting less wear and tear onto his arm. Quite the bonus.
 

TFisNEXT

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Pedro was literally superhuman from 1999 to 2001 before the rotator cuff injury in June that year. Speaks volumes how ridiculous he was that after the injury when he clearly wasn't quite on the same level, he was still probably the best pitcher in the game for another couple seasons. I'm still pissed that he got robbed of the Cy Young in 2002 just because Zito had more wins.
 

8slim

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I agree. The waste of Coleman's otherwise more-than-respectable career is that there wasn't a skill he lacked. His versatility was near Bird-esque, only he was stronger and, I think, had greater athleticism. He had a low post game, could hit 10-15 foot jumpers, pass, and rebound. He had enough talent to have potentially been ranked as one of the 10-15 best of all time. So while not a waste on the level of, say, Benoit Benjamin, he did little enough to make the best of his extraordinary skills. "Whoopde-damn-do."
On the bright side, Coleman has not "wasted" his post-NBA life. He does a ton of meaningful work in the Detroit community. I don't think he has any regrets, which is why he's DC.