53-Man Roster Predictions / Cut Watch Thread

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Jungleland

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I think you're right about Maneri. Any of Bolden, Finch, and the loser of the Chung/Wilson/Ebner group all seem like better uses of that spot if Gronk and Hoomanawanui are healthy week 1. I'm not even sure I'd sacrifice Boyce's last chance for a fringe tight end. 
 

Stitch01

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Yeah don't understand the need to keep Maneri.  Gronk/Hooman with Develin and OL available for spot duty seem fine.
 

RedOctober3829

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Phil, Siliga isn't eligible for the PUP list because he has already practiced in training camp. The left hand injury is significant and it is unlikely we see Siliga in the regular-season opener. Based on the present snapshot, it could be a while until we see him.
 
Reiss was asked about the status of Siliga's hand injury and this was his answer in the ESPN mailbag.  Based on his play in the preseason, do you use the IR-DTR slot on him, keep him on the 53 and make him inactive until he is ready, or do you IR him and end his season to get a healthy body such as Worley on the 53?  Very tough decision.
 

TheDeuce222

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RedOctober3829 said:
Reiss was asked about the status of Siliga's hand injury and this was his answer in the ESPN mailbag.  Based on his play in the preseason, do you use the IR-DTR slot on him, keep him on the 53 and make him inactive until he is ready, or do you IR him and end his season to get a healthy body such as Worley on the 53?  Very tough decision.
I think you have to IR him if you don't think he'll be back by October 1st or so, or keep him on the active 53.  
 
The IR-DTR slot has the ability to be crucially important to enable the team to keep a true impact player able to contribute later in the year, without using one of the 53 on him every week.  Siliga was very good late last year, and he has been promising in camp prior to the injury.  But, even at best, he was going to be no better than 3rd or 4th on the depth chart at d tackle after Wilfork, Kelly and Easley.  I think you'd rather save the IR-DTR slot for a starter or quasi starter like Vereen.  I also hold out some hope that Worthy could contribute if healthy.  If, on the other hand, you think Siliga can contribute by Week 4, I would have no problem with them keeping him on the 53 over someone like Jerel Worthy and making him inactive for the first few weeks.  
 

Super Nomario

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TheDeuce222 said:
I think you have to IR him if you don't think he'll be back by October 1st or so, or keep him on the active 53.  
 
The IR-DTR slot has the ability to be crucially important to enable the team to keep a true impact player able to contribute later in the year, without using one of the 53 on him every week.  Siliga was very good late last year, and he has been promising in camp prior to the injury.  But, even at best, he was going to be no better than 3rd or 4th on the depth chart at d tackle after Wilfork, Kelly and Easley.  I think you'd rather save the IR-DTR slot for a starter or quasi starter like Vereen.  I also hold out some hope that Worthy could contribute if healthy.  If, on the other hand, you think Siliga can contribute by Week 4, I would have no problem with them keeping him on the 53 over someone like Jerel Worthy and making him inactive for the first few weeks.  
You never know if you're going to have someone suffer an injury that's DTR-eligible, though. It's really a specific set of circumstances - it has to be early enough in the season, and severe enough that they miss several weeks but not so severe that it's season-ending. And using the IR-DTR spot isn't a big deal; you still have the option to keep a newly injured player inactive on the 53 if he's important enough. I would use it on a player of Siliga's caliber if the timeframe seems appropriate.
 

Stitch01

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Agreed with Deuce222 particularly because the Pats are in some ways playing with at least one extra roster spot for four weeks.  Id rather not have the IR-DTR designation covering a somewhat marginal player for the four weeks Browner is suspended.
 

RedOctober3829

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My projected 54-man roster
 
QB(3)
Tom Brady
Jimmy G
Ryan Mallett
 
RB/FB(5)
Stevan Ridley
James White
Shane Vereen
Roy Finch
James Develin
 
OL(9)
Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Logan Mankins
Dan Connolly
Ryan Wendell
Marcus Cannon
Bryan Stork
Jordan Devey
Cameron Fleming
 
TE(2)
Rob Gronkowski
Hooman
 
WR(6)
Julian Edelman
Danny Amendola
Kenbrell Thompkins
Aaron Dobson
Brandon LaFell
Matt Slater
 
DL(10)
Vince Wilfork
Tommy Kelly
Dominique Easley
Chandler Jones
Rob Ninkovich
Sealver Siliga
Chris Jones
Joe Vellano
Michael Buchanan
Zach Moore
 
LB(6)
Jerod Mayo
Donta Hightower
Jamie Collins
James Anderson
Steve Beauharnais
Chris White
 
DB(9)
Darrelle Revis
Brandon Browner*
Malcom Butler
Alfonzo Dennard
Logan Ryan
Kyle Arrington
Devin McCourty
Duron Harmon
Tavon Wilson
Patrick Chung
 
ST(3)
Danny Aiken
Stephen Gostkowski
Ryan Allen
 

jsinger121

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RedOctober3829 said:
My projected 54-man roster
 
QB(3)
Tom Brady
Jimmy G
Ryan Mallett
 
RB/FB(5)
Stevan Ridley
James White
Shane Vereen
Roy Finch
James Develin
 
OL(9)
Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Logan Mankins
Dan Connolly
Ryan Wendell
Marcus Cannon
Bryan Stork
Jordan Devey
Cameron Fleming
 
TE(2)
Rob Gronkowski
Hooman
 
WR(6)
Julian Edelman
Danny Amendola
Kenbrell Thompkins
Aaron Dobson
Brandon LaFell
Matt Slater
 
DL(10)
Vince Wilfork
Tommy Kelly
Dominique Easley
Chandler Jones
Rob Ninkovich
Sealver Siliga
Chris Jones
Joe Vellano
Michael Buchanan
Zach Moore
 
LB(6)
Jerod Mayo
Donta Hightower
Jamie Collins
James Anderson
Steve Beauharnais
Chris White
 
DB(9)
Darrelle Revis
Brandon Browner*
Malcom Butler
Alfonzo Dennard
Logan Ryan
Kyle Arrington
Devin McCourty
Duron Harmon
Tavon Wilson
Patrick Chung
 
ST(3)
Danny Aiken
Stephen Gostkowski
Ryan Allen
No Tyms as the 55th man on suspension?
 

RedOctober3829

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lambeau said:
Ebner? K. Davis?
Wilson and Ebner were on four ST units each last night, but I think Wilson brings more versatility than Ebner. I considered dropping Chung and keeping Ebner, but I just don't know who will get the bulk of time at SS yet. With Davis, Malcom Butler takes his spot for the first 4 games. Hope to sneak him through to PS.
 

lambeau

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It's an awfully good projection, but BB loves his ST binkies--and Will Smith and Jerel Worthy might be tough cuts if BB wants to go 3-4.
 

TheoShmeo

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What about Jonas Gray sticking over White? I know that White was a pick and there were some high expectations but he seems a little undersized and Gray has stood out more and seemingly runs with more power and authority. And he did get some first team snaps on Friday night and had a nice run negated by a penalty (shocker).
 

lambeau

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White has looked awful but would be a surprise cut based on what staff has said in camp--plus his pass-catching versatility.
My guess is they also keep so as not to  expose to waivers:
 
Butler
Finch
Fleming
Halapio
Moore
Stork
Worthy
 
Dream Practice Squad:
 
Bass
Bolden
Boyce
J'G Davis
Gallon
Gray
J Thomas
Vellano
C White
T Wilson
 

RedOctober3829

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TheoShmeo said:
What about Jonas Gray sticking over White? I know that White was a pick and there were some high expectations but he seems a little undersized and Gray has stood out more and seemingly runs with more power and authority. And he did get some first team snaps on Friday night and had a nice run negated by a penalty (shocker).
They have more invested in White so they will give him the first shot.  I don't think Gray sticks.
 

mwonow

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Where's Joe Klein in all of this? I think they'd like to keep him, maybe even on the 45
 

Stitch01

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TheoShmeo said:
What about Jonas Gray sticking over White? I know that White was a pick and there were some high expectations but he seems a little undersized and Gray has stood out more and seemingly runs with more power and authority. And he did get some first team snaps on Friday night and had a nice run negated by a penalty (shocker).
White provides more versatility in the passing game. I think he's on the team.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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TheoShmeo said:
What about Jonas Gray sticking over White? I know that White was a pick and there were some high expectations but he seems a little undersized and Gray has stood out more and seemingly runs with more power and authority. And he did get some first team snaps on Friday night and had a nice run negated by a penalty (shocker).
yeah, I think there is about 1% chance that White is cut for any reason. He is a no nonsense, bread & butter type back. Gray is going against scrubs. Gray gets oversized salary to stick at PS. Bolden goes IMO.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Have we all smartened up regarding Ridley, or did his 8 carries for 28 yards seal his fate as roster fodder?

Do people still think the RB group is elite without Ridley?

After the last few preseasons, I think we should all slow down and think a little more objectively before weighing entire careers on a few preseason snaps and how players look in non-contact drills.
 

dcmissle

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Point taken, but why does this one in particular bother you so much? Some of us also think that predictions of Mallett's departure are borderline nuts, but life goes on.

We'll have answers very soon.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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dcmissle said:
Point taken, but why does this one in particular bother you so much? Some of us also think that predictions of Mallett's departure are borderline nuts, but life goes on.

We'll have answers very soon.
 
Because we should hold ourselves to a higher standard.
 
5 years ago, this forum was a steaming pile of shit. The consistent posters in this forum have worked very hard to bring the level of discussion up, and one of the (only) best tools any of the non-mods have is to call people on their bullshit. It's what keeps people honest on this forum and on this board in general.
 
I understand that people get excited for football, but when members - active with a history or new and just getting started - start to make rash and impulsive statements, they deserve to be called on it. People over blowing the Ridley situation was just one example (and, no, that doesn't mean he won't be benched halfway through the season if he starts fumbling all over the field, but that's not the point). Coupling it with a sudden and intense infatuation with the new shiny toys that media members use to fill bandwidth (James White) gives talking points that have no substance. Members aren't using their own instincts and knowledge to see that White looks mediocre and sluggish on the field and that he's running with the second and third team. They buy into the hype that one media member spits out and is regurgitated by every other member of the media circus.
 
That example is only amplified when people turn full fan boy. Ryan Mallett has "popped", Brian Tyms is a serious deep threat and legit X receiver, Justin Jones is a real option to play second fiddle to Gronk, Bolden/Gray/Vereen/White is a "fine group" at running back. Believe it or not, my intent isn't to be a dickhead, but this is the kind of stuff we would kill inferior football boards for.
 
Again, I know everyone is excited for the football season to start, and I also know that we don't have to keep this forum purely informative and educational. But when those statements start to drive false narratives ("Ridley was benched in the preseason! Of course its reasonable to trade him for a 6th round pick!"), it becomes a problem and it should be pointed out. We are better than that.
 

lambeau

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FWIW, overall guard grades for 3 preseason games by PFF are:
 
Mankins  +3.2
Kline  +2.5
Devey  -7.0
 
Connelly no snaps. Unless Wendell and Connelly both return, Kline may be unable to  avoid  starting at RG.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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JimywockyTranslator said:
@AdamSchefter: NE with some notable cuts: Patriots released veteran DL Tommie Kelly and Will Smith, along with vet LB James Anderson, per league source.
 
Fuck.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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BigSoxFan said:
More examples of BB letting the vets go early to give them a greater chance of latching on with someone else. Disappointed with Anderson. Thought he'd be able to find a role.
 
I know people have said this stuff before, but I'm not buying it here. BB has shown a great track record of letting vets go before the rest of the league sees how far they've fallen. I have a feeling Kelly and Anderson are out of this league by the end of next season.
 
Edit: Especially Kelly. Anderson may be a causality of a deep linebacker group, but the Patriots D-line is thin. BB releasing him now is not a good sign for Kelly's career.
 

Phragle

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lambeau said:
FWIW, overall guard grades for 3 preseason games by PFF are:
 
Mankins  +3.2
Kline  +2.5
Devey  -7.0
 
Connelly no snaps. Unless Wendell and Connelly both return, Kline may be unable to  avoid  starting at RG.
 
Devey should be -100 for stepping on Brady
 
Kenny F'ing Powers said:
 
Yeah weird. Kelly was probably the best 5-tech on the roster. 
 
Edit: Kelly has the only positive PFF grade of Patriots DTs this preseason.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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JimywockyTranslator said:
@AdamSchefter: NE with some notable cuts: Patriots released veteran DL Tommie Kelly and Will Smith, along with vet LB James Anderson, per league source.
 
I think the writing was on the wall with Vellano going wire-to-wire and defending well against the run in the last PS game. 
 
I really liked Kelly and hope he finds another job (and probably will) soon. Otherwise, Will Smith didn't do a thing all camp and James Anderson was a disappointment. 
 
But what this really means is...
 
 
 
 
More room on the BinkyWagon!!!1!1!!
 

dcmissle

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Kenny F said:
 
Because we should hold ourselves to a higher standard.
 
5 years ago, this forum was a steaming pile of shit. The consistent posters in this forum have worked very hard to bring the level of discussion up, and one of the (only) best tools any of the non-mods have is to call people on their bullshit. It's what keeps people honest on this forum and on this board in general.
 
I understand that people get excited for football, but when members - active with a history or new and just getting started - start to make rash and impulsive statements, they deserve to be called on it. People over blowing the Ridley situation was just one example (and, no, that doesn't mean he won't be benched halfway through the season if he starts fumbling all over the field, but that's not the point). Coupling it with a sudden and intense infatuation with the new shiny toys that media members use to fill bandwidth (James White) gives talking points that have no substance. Members aren't using their own instincts and knowledge to see that White looks mediocre and sluggish on the field and that he's running with the second and third team. They buy into the hype that one media member spits out and is regurgitated by every other member of the media circus.
 
That example is only amplified when people turn full fan boy. Ryan Mallett has "popped", Brian Tyms is a serious deep threat and legit X receiver, Justin Jones is a real option to play second fiddle to Gronk, Bolden/Gray/Vereen/White is a "fine group" at running back. Believe it or not, my intent isn't to be a dickhead, but this is the kind of stuff we would kill inferior football boards for.
 
Again, I know everyone is excited for the football season to start, and I also know that we don't have to keep this forum purely informative and educational. But when those statements start to drive false narratives ("Ridley was benched in the preseason! Of course its reasonable to trade him for a 6th round pick!"), it becomes a problem and it should be pointed out. We are better than that.
Ok, and since your post, we have seen a round of cuts that have provoked surprise here and exclamations like "Fuck".

Now go back to the recent Ridley speculation. You will see a few posts by a couple of people who have posted well and are well regarded. (I exclude myself from such company). Those people said they would not be stunned if Ridley were released.

Now I don't think it will happen, and they probably don't either. But today is a reinforcing lesson -- as if one were needed -- that BB is capable of provoking great surprise.
 

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Very surprised by Kelly.   I could imagine a situation where he agrees he needs a little more rehab time and is on the shadow roster--but his preseason play and timing of this suggest that's not what is going on here.
 
BB has tended to prefer young lineman early and signing old guys during the season---otherwise, this one is just surprising
 

RedOctober3829

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PedroKsBambino said:
Very surprised by Kelly.   I could imagine a situation where he agrees he needs a little more rehab time and is on the shadow roster--but his preseason play and timing of this suggest that's not what is going on here.
 
BB has tended to prefer young lineman early and signing old guys during the season---otherwise, this one is just surprising
Only thing I can think of is that he'd sign back after week 1 when his money isn't guaranteed. They saved almost 4 million in space with these cuts. Maybe Tony G is coming in. :)
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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dcmissle said:
Ok, and since your post, we have seen a round of cuts that have provoked surprise here and exclamations like "Fuck".

Now go back to the recent Ridley speculation. You will see a few posts by a couple of people who have posted well and are well regarded. (I exclude myself from such company). Those people said they would not be stunned if Ridley were released.

Now I don't think it will happen, and they probably don't either. But today is a reinforcing lesson -- as if one were needed -- that BB is capable of provoking great surprise.
A 35 year old lineman coming back from a career threatening injury is not fucking Stevan Ridley. People are bummed because its an acknowledgement that we lost a good lineman because of a shitty injury. These two things arent the same.
 

Stitch01

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Man I hope those starting backers stay healthy. Thought Anderson's skill set would be a nice fit but didn't seem to work out.

Kelly makes some sense given the DL roster crunch

Smith was an obvious cut.
 

j44thor

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RedOctober3829 said:
Any chance they bring in Alan Branch?
 
Branch showed up to camp out of shape and was just popped for DUI leading to his release. Does not sound like someone the Pats would be interested in, more so for showing up out of shape but the DUI certainly doesn't help.
 

dcmissle

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Kenny F'ing Powers said:
A 35 year old lineman coming back from a career threatening injury is not fucking Stevan Ridley. People are bummed because its an acknowledgement that we lost a good lineman because of a shitty injury. These two things arent the same.
They were bummed, but also surprised. Of all the projectors here, which include the beat writers, one guy had Kelly getting cut. Seoul -- very early in this thread.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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dcmissle said:
They were bummed, but also surprised. Of all the projectors here, which include the beat writers, one guy had Kelly getting cut. Seoul -- very early in this thread.
If thats the barometer, how many had Ridley getting cut?
 

dcmissle

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Kenny F said:
If thats the barometer, how many had Ridley getting cut?
When the discussion occurred Monday, Stich and Soxfan expressed the view that Ridley is not a lock, and would not be shocked if he were traded. And if there were more than 8 posts on the subject, I'd be surprised.

That's why I was surprised that this bit of out-of-box thinking offended you so much.
 

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I always find it amusing when people are like FUCK! about some back of the roster guy getting cut. I know we can second-guess the hoodie - and I do - but I don't second-guess him about guys I've barely even registered on screen in the 25 plays I've "seen" them in during preseason games and he's spent like the last 1,000 hours analyzing them down to their every last detail.
 
I mean, if the hoodie cuts him - if ANY NFL coach cuts a guy - I'm probably going to trust that he knows more than I do. These are not like "why did he go for it on 4th and 2?" type decisions.
 

caesarbear

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Have to figure that there was a reason BB traded for Worthy and Bass. Camp bodies can be had without trades. If Jones and/or Siliga end up on IR then we're once again facing a crisis at DT without them. In hindsight, we shouldn't be that surprised by Kelly's cut.
 

dcmissle

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Old Fart Tree said:
I always find it amusing when people are like FUCK! about some back of the roster guy getting cut. I know we can second-guess the hoodie - and I do - but I don't second-guess him about guys I've barely even registered on screen in the 25 plays I've "seen" them in during preseason games and he's spent like the last 1,000 hours analyzing them down to their every last detail.
 
I mean, if the hoodie cuts him - if ANY NFL coach cuts a guy - I'm probably going to trust that he knows more than I do. These are not like "why did he go for it on 4th and 2?" type decisions.
Has anyone done this though? Other than Milloy, I am hard pressed to identify many controversies over cuts. I am not including, obviously, other kinds of parting of ways -- e.g., Asante, Adam and so forth.
 

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JimywockyTranslator said:
@AdamSchefter: NE with some notable cuts: Patriots released veteran DL Tommie Kelly and Will Smith, along with vet LB James Anderson, per league source.
I was planning on posting my predictions today ... all three of these guys were going to fall under "veterans not as safe as people think." Not sure I would have pegged them as actually cuts though.
 
Big winners: Siliga, Easley, and Chris Jones (if their health were really a concern, would Kelly be cut), and Vellano and Worthy, who probably needed a DT to be cut to make it. Buchanan, Zach Moore, and maybe even Jake Bequette. Chris White and Steve Beauharnais, who are now near-locks.
 

Tony C

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Am most pleased by what it signifies about Siliga -- nothing certain, but presumably gives some reason for optimism that not too serious on the hand injury. i thought he was a terrific find last year, so am very much hoping that's the case.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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dcmissle said:
When the discussion occurred Monday, Stich and Soxfan expressed the view that Ridley is not a lock, and would not be shocked if he were traded. And if there were more than 8 posts on the subject, I'd be surprised.

That's why I was surprised that this bit of out-of-box thinking offended you so much.
Knee jerk reactions are not "out-of-box thinking".

I was pretty sure it was identified as knee jerk when Ridley was the #1 back at the first practice after his fumble. Or when he took a huge portion of #1 carries against the Panthers.

If you think im offended because people are thinking outside the box, then you didnt read my post that answered your question and I'm wasting my time going any deeper.
 

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dcmissle said:
Has anyone done this though? Other than Milloy, I am hard pressed to identify many controversies over cuts. I am not including, obviously, other kinds of parting of ways -- e.g., Asante, Adam and so forth.
 
KFP did exactly that (i.e. say "Fuck" about a cut), Red October is "shocked" and Phragle thinks we cut "probably the best 5 technique" guy on the roster. 
 
I'm with Old Fart Tree on this--I find it so time consuming to really carefully watch particular players that I have no idea whether Kelly outplayed, say, Joe Vellano this preseason.
 

dcmissle

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Shelterdog said:
 
KFP did exactly that (i.e. say "Fuck" about a cut), Red October is "shocked" and Phragle thinks we cut "probably the best 5 technique" guy on the roster. 
 
I'm with Old Fart Tree on this--I find it so time consuming to really carefully watch particular players that I have no idea whether Kelly outplayed, say, Joe Vellano this preseason.
Maybe KFP's reaction was "knee jerk".

I for one am agnostic, as I don't pretend to have knowledge remotely close to the coaches', let alone know what plans, if any, they might have for the cap space saved today.
 
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