40-man Turnover Prediction Thread

[nvalvo]

I started writing this in the "What does 2023 look like?" thread, but remembered that more threads are often better. So consider this a spinoff from that thread.

Some of the predictions that people are making in that thread suggest a vision of a 2023 Red Sox roster that is pretty similar to the current one. I am not sure that I share that expectation. We have a number of key departing players, a ton of money to spend in Free Agency, and for the first time in awhile a bit of a prospect hoard that might make unambiguously buy-type trades possible.

I also realized that I wasn't actually sure anyone really expected the same group. Maybe it's one poster suggesting retaining Wacha or Eovaldi, somebody else suggests bringing back JD, and a third person is proposing Refsnyder at DH: those aren't necessarily the same people.

So here's a discussion question: how much 40-man roster turnover do we expect? Not how much would we aim for if we were running Baseball Operations, but how much we expect Chaim and BOH and Raquel and the rest of the gang to change things.

Below I have listed the 45 players on the 40-man roster plus the 5 players currently on the 60-day IL. I've organized them a bit under a few headings; quibbles as to headings are reasonable, especially since I am not crystal clear about a few edge cases. How many of these guys do we expect to be on the 40-man + 60-man IL as of Opening Day 2023? We can check back when the team heads North and see how we did.

Some are obvious. We presume Chris Sale will begin next season on the 60-man IL *rimshot*.

This list is as of the last day of the regular season, because that's what baseball-reference.com had. But two players have already been removed from the roster: Abraham Almonte and Eduard Bazardo. It is not inconceivable that either or both could be back — decent-but-not-great RHRPs like Bazardo ping pong on and off rosters all the time — but I think it's safe to say that the bidding begins at 2.

(To be clear, I don't think the extreme choices are especially likely, but it seemed like the best way to organize it.)

Pitchers
Under Contract or Team Control
Zack Kelly
John Schreiber
Kaleb Ort
Matt Barnes
Franklin German
Darwinzon Hernandez
Ryan Brasier
Brayan Bello
Garrett Whitlock
Kutter Crawford
Josh Taylor
Tanner Houck
Easton McGee
Tyler Danish
Bryan Mata
Josh Winckowski
Connor Seabold
Nick Pivetta

Pending Options
Chris Sale
James Paxton

Not Under Contract
Michael Wacha
Nathan Eovaldi
Eduard Bazardo
Rich Hill
Matt Strahm

Position Players
Under Contract or Team Control
Reese McGuire
Rafael Devers
Triston Casas
Yu Chang
Alex Verdugo
Connor Wong
Bobby Dalbec
Christian Arroyo
Enrique Hernandez
Eric Hosmer
Trevor Story
Rob Refsnyder
Ronaldo Hernandez
Jeter Downs
Jarren Duran
Franchy Cordero

Pending Options
Tommy Pham
Xander Bogaerts

Not Under Contract
J.D. Martinez
Abraham Almonte

 

[nvalvo]

My prediction is 25 players returning, and so my vote was just barely in "lotta new faces," one away from "notable changes."

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

minor quibble- but I believe both Bogaerts and Sale are technically currently under contract, with the ability to opt out, right? (And clearly one of them will and one of them won’t…)

 

[nvalvo]

minor quibble- but I believe both Bogaerts and Sale are technically currently under contract, with the ability to opt out, right? (And clearly one of them will and one of them won’t…)

Ah, yes. Quite true! I was spending all of this time trying to figure out e.g. Franchy's situation, and went and miffed the most obvious two.

 

[chawson]

Pitchers
Under Contract or Team Control
Zack Kelly
John Schreiber
Kaleb Ort
Matt Barnes
Franklin German
Darwinzon Hernandez
Ryan Brasier
Brayan Bello
Garrett Whitlock
Kutter Crawford
Josh Taylor
Tanner Houck
Easton McGee
Tyler Danish
Bryan Mata
Josh Winckowski
Connor Seabold
Nick Pivetta

Pending Options
Chris Sale
James Paxton

Not Under Contract
Michael Wacha
Nathan Eovaldi
Eduard Bazardo
Rich Hill
Matt Strahm

Position Players
Under Contract or Team Control
Reese McGuire
Rafael Devers
Triston Casas
Yu Chang
Alex Verdugo
Connor Wong
Bobby Dalbec
Christian Arroyo
Enrique Hernandez
Eric Hosmer
Trevor Story
Rob Refsnyder
Ronaldo Hernandez
Jeter Downs
Jarren Duran
Franchy Cordero

Pending Options
Tommy Pham
Xander Bogaerts

Not Under Contract
J.D. Martinez
Abraham Almonte

I think we’d have to add Hamilton too, right?

I went with notable changes. (I think Darwinzon Hernández, Houck, McGee, Danish, Seabold, Pivetta, Paxton, Bazardo, Strahm, Chang, Dalbec, Hosmer, Arroyo, Downs, Duran, Pham, J.D. Martinez and Almonte are gone.)

 

[Pat Spillane]

I think we’d have to add Hamilton too, right?

I went with notable changes. (I think Darwinzon Hernández, Houck, McGee, Danish, Seabold, Pivetta, Paxton, Bazardo, Strahm, Chang, Dalbec, Hosmer, Arroyo, Downs, Duran, Pham, J.D. Martinez and Almonte are gone.)

Whoa what moves are you expecting Houck,Pivetta,Duran all gone??

 

[simplicio]

There's also a question of how many spaces you need to protect rule 5 guys. Ceddanne Rafaela, Brandon Walter and Eddinson Paulino are most likely being added, and cases could be made for Chris Murphy, Wikelman Gonzales, Thaddeus Ward and Brainer Bonaci.

 

[chawson]

Whoa what moves are you expecting Houck,Pivetta,Duran all gone??

It's best not to get into it. Basically, I'm expecting a lot of moves and a few surprises, and I'm guessing at those surprises. I'm not even that sure Verdugo stays.

 

[Bernie Carbohydrate]

There's also a question of how many spaces you need to protect rule 5 guys. Ceddanne Rafaela, Brandon Walter and Eddinson Paulino are most likely being added, and cases could be made for Chris Murphy, Wikelman Gonzales, Thaddeus Ward and Brainer Bonaci.

On Bonaci, seems like if he could stick at SS (31 games at Carolina) he'd be vulnerable to some other team scooping him up via Rule V -- good plate discipline at a tough defensive position. I notice that once he got to A-ball they played him at 2B (57 games) , 3B (10 games) and DH (11 games), so he may not be worth a roster spot to another team.

 

[brandonchristensen]

It's best not to get into it. Basically, I'm expecting a lot of moves and a few surprises, and I'm guessing at those surprises. I'm not even that sure Verdugo stays.

I really hope this isn’t true.

It’s hard to continue to root strictly for the laundry. The impermanence of not having a running cast of characters has made the team identity incredibly bland lately.

2018 was so exciting - and the two years later, the Killer B’s are gone and we have had a revolving door of a pitching staff.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

I went 21 to 25 but didn't think about it too hard. I just have a bad feeling in my gut Raffy will also be traded, leading to that higher end of turnover.

 

[Manramsclan]

Bazardo officially elects Free Agency

EDIT: Jake Reed claimed off waivers from Orioles last week which necessitated this move.

 

[simplicio]

On Bonaci, seems like if he could stick at SS (31 games at Carolina) he'd be vulnerable to some other team scooping him up via Rule V -- good plate discipline at a tough defensive position. I notice that once he got to A-ball they played him at 2B (57 games) , 3B (10 games) and DH (11 games), so he may not be worth a roster spot to another team.

Yeah, Bonaci is just a long way from the majors, and every team is dealing with a rule 5 crunch this winter, so I can see the Sox feeling like it's safe to risk leaving him off. Same situation with Gonzalez and Paulino, but my guess is Paulino looks like enough of a prospect to protect.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Without naming names, I expect 1-2 new SPs, 2-3 new RPs/swingmen, 1 MI, 1 OF/DH/1B type, 1 corner OF, 1 true UTIL, 3 Minor Leaguers added. I guess that’s the 26-30 option.

 

[chawson]

Bazardo officially elects Free Agency

EDIT: Jake Reed claimed off waivers from Orioles last week which necessitated this move.

It seems like they value Bazardo less than the the raft of prospects who need protection but know he won’t go unclaimed, yet believe they’ve got a better chance of slipping Reed through waivers whenever the time comes. It’s interesting.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

Almonte also a free agent.

I voted substantive turnover, though maybe some of that is wishful thinking.

From the list above, I think the following are goners no matter what:

Pitchers:
Darwinzon Hernández
Ryan Brasier
Josh Taylor
James Paxton
Bazardo
Matt Strahm

Position Players:
Yu Chang
Eric Hosmer
Bobby Dalbec
Ronaldo Hernández
Franchy Cordero
Almonte
JD Martinez
Tommy Pham

That's 14 right there, which drops the 40 to 26 really fast. From there, it's not hard to see a few more guys get moved or nontendered. Duran, McGee, Downs, Bogaerts, Mata, Danish, Ort, Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, and Refsnyder all feel like strong candidates to move on in one way, shape, or form. Maybe Kiké, too.

The team has a ton of money to spend and a lot of dreck on the roster. That seems like a recipe for a big overhaul IF Henry, et al, are serious about competing in the next couple of seasons. If they are trying to bide time until 2024 or 2025 and the next predicted window of opportunity for a long run as contenders, then it will most likely be somewhere between notable changes and the same group.

 

[Ganthem]

Almonte also a free agent.

I voted substantive turnover, though maybe some of that is wishful thinking.

From the list above, I think the following are goners no matter what:

Pitchers:
Darwinzon Hernández
Ryan Brasier
Josh Taylor
James Paxton
Bazardo
Matt Strahm

Position Players:
Yu Chang
Eric Hosmer
Bobby Dalbec
Ronaldo Hernández
Franchy Cordero
Almonte
JD Martinez
Tommy Pham

That's 14 right there, which drops the 40 to 26 really fast. From there, it's not hard to see a few more guys get moved or nontendered. Duran, McGee, Downs, Bogaerts, Mata, Danish, Ort, Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, and Refsnyder all feel like strong candidates to move on in one way, shape, or form. Maybe Kiké, too.

The team has a ton of money to spend and a lot of dreck on the roster. That seems like a recipe for a big overhaul IF Henry, et al, are serious about competing in the next couple of seasons. If they are trying to bide time until 2024 or 2025 and the next predicted window of opportunity for a long run as contenders, then it will most likely be somewhere between notable changes and the same group .

Paxton will probably trigger his four million dollar player option and why would Kike go anywhere after they signed him to a one year extension?

 

[simplicio]

I think prognosticating one way or another on Taylor is fruitless, we simply don't have the data on his injury.

Hosmer is free and useful unless they're getting something of value back. Also you're ditching all three backup 1B, what's your plan there?

Strahm seems worth keeping to me, he's been really good for us.

Ronaldo Hernandez only leaves if they grab a new C. For now, he's necessary depth.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Paxton will probably trigger his four million dollar player option and why would Kike go anywhere after they signed him to a one year extension?

This would be great but some posters made pretty compelling arguments that some other teams will offer more

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

Paxton will probably trigger his four million dollar player option and why would Kike go anywhere after they signed him to a one year extension?

If he does, it'll be in a trade. I don't see him as an untouchable.

 

[chawson]

If he does, it'll be in a trade. I don't see him as an untouchable.

If we’re out of it at the deadline, maybe, but otherwise this is the sort of thing that would generate a ton of ill will. You can’t sign a guy to an under-market one-year deal one month before he hits free agency and then immediately trade him.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

If we’re out of it at the deadline, maybe, but otherwise this is the sort of thing that would generate a ton of ill will. You can’t sign a guy to an under-market one-year deal one month before he hits free agency and then immediately trade him.

That's fair. And I added him as an afterthought. But Bronson Arroyo could tell you something about signing a team-friendly deal to stay that didn't work out the way he'd hoped. Different times, different scenario, but not unheard of for this ownership.

 

[jon abbey]

Tyler Danish gone (although he could come back still):

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/tyler-danish-elects-free-agency.html

 

[zougwa]

Tyler Danish gone (although he could come back still):

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/tyler-danish-elects-free-agency.html

At least we got to see Danish and German pitch in the same game one time.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

At least we got to see Danish and German pitch in the same game one time.

Did Franchy play too?

 

[nvalvo]

Pitchers
Under Contract or Team Control
Zack Kelly
John Schreiber
Kaleb Ort
Matt Barnes
Franklin German
Darwinzon Hernandez
Ryan Brasier
Brayan Bello
Garrett Whitlock
Kutter Crawford
Josh Taylor
Tanner Houck
Easton McGee
Tyler Danish
Bryan Mata
Josh Winckowski
Connor Seabold
Nick Pivetta

Pending Options
Chris Sale
James Paxton

Not Under Contract
Michael Wacha
Nathan Eovaldi
Eduard Bazardo
Rich Hill
Matt Strahm

Position Players
Under Contract or Team Control
Reese McGuire
Rafael Devers
Triston Casas
Yu Chang
Alex Verdugo
Connor Wong
Bobby Dalbec
Christian Arroyo
Enrique Hernandez
Eric Hosmer
Trevor Story
Rob Refsnyder
Ronaldo Hernandez
Jeter Downs
Jarren Duran
Franchy Cordero

Pending Options
Tommy Pham
Xander Bogaerts

Not Under Contract
J.D. Martinez
Abraham Almonte

An update: 35 remain.

 

[Super Nomario]

It is wild how many position players they have subtracted without adding anyone other than Yoshida. By my count they have only 16 position players on the 40-man, and some of them (David Hamilton, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela) have never played above AA and are not serious threats to make the opening day roster. More moves have to be coming, but some of the holes here are pretty large for this point of the offseason.

 

[chawson]

We’re down to 24 (and counting?)…

 

[JM3]

This shows the 40-man roster by date they were placed on it:

https://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

There are now only 3 players on the 40-man who were there when Bloom took over - Sale/Devers/Brasier.

I think it's 25 left from the date of the OP, at least according to that link.

 

[tbb345]

This shows the 40-man roster by date they were placed on it:

https://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

There are now only 3 players on the 40-man who were there when Bloom took over - Sale/Devers/Brasier.

I think it's 25 left from the date of the OP, at least according to that link.

That’s a crazy stat in and of itself. What makes it absolutely insane is that one of the 3 players is Ryan fucking Brasier

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

This shows the 40-man roster by date they were placed on it:

https://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

There are now only 3 players on the 40-man who were there when Bloom took over - Sale/Devers/Brasier.

I think it's 25 left from the date of the OP, at least according to that link.

Is that really so out of the ordinary for a team in transition under a new GM? Especially in the age of free agency? How many of the 2006 Red Sox (Theo's 4th year) were on the 40-man when he was hired after the 2002 season? As far as I can tell, it was Mirabelli, Nixon, Ramirez, Varitek, and Wakefield. Guys like Youkilis, Delcarmen, Lester and Papelbon were in the organization but not on the 40-man yet. Heck, Mirabelli had been traded away and brought back so he probably should have an asterisk.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Is that really so out of the ordinary for a team in transition under a new GM? Especially in the age of free agency? How many of the 2006 Red Sox (Theo's 4th year) were on the 40-man when he was hired after the 2002 season? As far as I can tell, it was Mirabelli, Nixon, Ramirez, Varitek, and Wakefield. Guys like Youkilis, Delcarmen, Lester and Papelbon were in the organization but not on the 40-man yet. Heck, Mirabelli had been traded away and brought back so he probably should have an asterisk.

Yep. It looks like 10 or so of the current 40 man were already in the minors when Bloom took over.

 

[JM3]

Are we objecting to my use of the word "only"? They got rid of 2 of the 5 yesterday, dropping the # from 5 to 3.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Are we objecting to my use of the word "only"? They got rid of 2 of the 5 yesterday, dropping the # from 5 to 3.

More quibbling with the idea that it's something noteworthy at all (tbb345 called it a "crazy" stat). Rosters turn over.

 

[JM3]

More quibbling with the idea that it's something noteworthy at all (tbb345 called it a "crazy" stat). Rosters turn over.

Yeah, it's more interesting to me than outlandish. Bloom will basically have full ownership of the team by next year in terms of credit/blame, with the exception of Sale.