40 Man Roster Discussion

[nvalvo]

Is there a thread analyzing BOS's current 40 man situation before rosters have to be locked next week for the rule 5 draft? I don't see one but maybe I'm overlooking it.

There's not much of a crunch at all.

Or rather there was, but a bunch of guys who might have been edge cases to be added were traded or DFA'd (Kavadas, Lugo, Zeferjahn, Yorke, Dalbec, et al.) at or after the trade deadline. Trading guys on the cusp of needing protection for departing FAs (Garcia, Sims, Paxton) has a way of tidying up the 40-man.

(This is one of my favorite things about Breslow relative to recent Sox baseball ops leaders: trading a guy like Zeferjahn instead of waiting around, inevitably leaving him unprotected, and seeing him get claimed. That García didn't work out as hoped is not an indictment of that approach.)

So if Wilson is included, I count 40 guys on there now, including a few remaining plausible DFA/non-tender candidates (like Mickey Gasper, Bryan Mata, Enmanuel Valdez) and only AAA SP Hunter Dobbins a certainty to be added. Jhostynxon García and, weirdly, Michael Fulmer are the other possible additions, but the Password is probably too raw for to get claimed and nobody outside of the team knows what Fulmer's status is. If he gets protected over somebody else, that will tell us something about how he's doing.

So here's how I see it:

Locks (28):
Position Players (10)
Devers
Duran
Wong
Story
Rafaela
Casas
Hamilton
Abreu
Yoshida
Grissom

Pitchers (18)
Houck
Bello
Giolito
Hendriks
Crawford
Priester
Fitts
Winckowski
Whitlock
W. Gonzalez
Slater
Perales
Kelly
Murphy
Booser
Guerrero
Penrod
Wilson (new addition)

Probables (9):
Position Players (3)
R. Gonzalez
Sogard
Refsnyder (is he retiring?)

Pitchers (6)
Weissert
Criswell
Shugart
Campbell
Bernardino
Horn

Maybes (3):
Position Players (2)
Gasper
Valdez

Pitchers (1)
Mata

Need protection:
Position Players (1)
Password

Pitchers (2)
Dobbins
Fulmer

 

[simplicio]

There's not much of a crunch at all.

Or rather there was, but a bunch of guys who might have been edge cases to be added were traded or DFA'd (Kavadas, Lugo, Zeferjahn, Yorke, Dalbec, et al.) at or after the trade deadline. Trading guys on the cusp of needing protection for departing FAs (Garcia, Sims, Paxton) has a way of tidying up the 40-man.

(This is one of my favorite things about Breslow relative to recent Sox baseball ops leaders: trading a guy like Zeferjahn instead of waiting around, inevitably leaving him unprotected, and seeing him get claimed. That García didn't work out as hoped is not an indictment of that approach.)

So if Wilson is included, I count 40 guys on there now, including a few remaining plausible DFA/non-tender candidates (like Mickey Gasper, Bryan Mata, Enmanuel Valdez) and only AAA SP Hunter Dobbins a certainty to be added. Jhostynxon García and, weirdly, Michael Fulmer are the other possible additions, but the Password is probably too raw for to get claimed and nobody outside of the team knows what Fulmer's status is. If he gets protected over somebody else, that will tell us something about how he's doing.

So here's how I see it:

Locks (28):
Position Players (10)
Devers
Duran
Wong
Story
Rafaela
Casas
Hamilton
Abreu
Yoshida
Grissom

Pitchers (18)
Houck
Bello
Giolito
Hendriks
Crawford
Priester
Fitts
Winckowski
Whitlock
W. Gonzalez
Slater
Perales
Kelly
Murphy
Booser
Guerrero
Penrod
Wilson (new addition)

Probables (9):
Position Players (3)
R. Gonzalez
Sogard
Refsnyder (is he retiring?)

Pitchers (6)
Weissert
Criswell
Shugart
Campbell
Bernardino
Horn

Maybes (3):
Position Players (2)
Gasper
Valdez

Pitchers (1)
Mata

Need protection:
Position Players (1)
Password

Pitchers (2)
Dobbins
Fulmer

Thanks for starting that, can we break the 40 man/rule 5 into a new thread?

Here's the list of rule 5 eligible guys:
Jose Adames
Angel Bastardo
Alex Binelas
Taylor Broadway
Zach Bryant
Allan Castro
Brendan Cellucci
Juan Chacon
Nathanael Cruz
Kelvin Diaz
Hunter Dobbins
Juan Daniel Encarnacion
Albert Feliz
Max Ferguson
Michael Fulmer
Grant Gambrell
Jhostynxon Garcia
Bryan Gonzalez
Nathan Hickey
Gabriel Jackson
Blaze Jordan
Robert Kwiatkowski
CJ Liu
Eduardo Lopez
Tyler McDonough
Tyler Miller
Wyatt Mills
Yordanny Monegro
Juan Montero
Wyatt Olds
Ronald Rosario
Corey Rosier
Reidis Sena
Phillip Sikes
Karson Simas
Adam Smith
Noah Song
Luis Talavera
Christopher Troye
Tyler Uberstine
Miguel Ugueto
Brian Van Belle
Diego Viloria
Jacob Webb
Jeremy Wu-Yelland

I think you have to protect Monegro too. His upside is too high and it's too easy for a bad team to hide him as a reliever for a year.

 

[jon abbey]

Weak title (by me) but new thread started.

 

[jon abbey]

40 man rosters have to be set by the 19th, next Tuesday, and then the rule 5 draft is about a month later.

 

[nvalvo]

Thanks, JA and simplicio!

I wouldn't protect Monegro. While I could imagine a team going for it, but I'm sure there will be better candidates for last guy in the pen on a bad a team than a junkballer like Monegro.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

I guess sitting mid 90s with the FB is a junkballer now...

 

[Cassvt2023]

I saw a Hunter Dobbins start in Portland in early August, before he got call up to AAA. He looked the part of a mid to back of rotation SP. Sat in the low to mid 90's, hitting 97 at least twice w/ his FB. (Not sure the accuracy of the gun at Hadlock) Showed a decent curve. He gave up little hard contact, his delivery made hitters look like they had hard time picking up the ball, and his command was quite good. (I was in first row behind home plate) I'm pretty sure he is either protected, or a piece in a deal for someone like Crochet. He'd probably be in the Chi Sox opening day rotation, as he is already 25 and they need a lot.

edit: another thing I noticed sitting right behind the plate by the on deck circle that game: Kyle Teel isn't a very big kid. At all.

 

[nvalvo]

I guess sitting mid 90s with the FB is a junkballer now...

Does he sit mid 90s? If that's true, I retract my objection. I thought he was 91-92.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Does he sit mid 90s? If that's true, I retract my objection. I thought he was 91-92.

He had normally sat there. When he came back from injury this year, his velo was down until he got ramped back up.

 

[nvalvo]

He had normally sat there. When he came back from injury this year, his velo was down until he got ramped back up.

Thanks for filling that in for me. In that case, yeah, we should probably proceed as though he might get claimed if left unprotected.

 

[jon abbey]

Refsnyder (is he retiring?)

No, his option was picked up a week or so ago:

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/boston-red-sox-bring-back-versatile-outfielder-rob-refsnyder-on-modest-deal-for-2025-season

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Thanks for filling that in for me. In that case, yeah, we should probably proceed as though he might get claimed if left unprotected.

To your overall point, he does pitch backward. But his FB is more than a "show me" pitch. Maybe it is my age, but when I think junkballer, LOOGYS come to mind-- Rheal Cormier, Tony Fossas. Maybe you could stretch it to Jamie Moyer- but... there is much more Velo there. So I wasn't trying to jump on you- but I know all of the highlights show him getting K's on the 12-6 curve ....

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I'd be fine with leaving any of the following unprotected to keep a high-upside lotto ticket.

Winckowski
W. Gonzalez
Murphy
Guerrero
Wilson
R. Gonzalez
Sogard
Shugart
Campbell (the pitcher)
Bernardino
Horn
Gasper
Valdez
Mata

 

[jon abbey]

One good place to start in these discussions is the actual current 40 man roster, which mlb.com does a good job of keeping very up to date all season. Boston's current 40 are here:

https://www.mlb.com/redsox/roster/40-man

I'm not going to be the one to input that here but ideally whoever does separates into position groups, so for example this is the latest one I did for NY (they are only at 35, pending additions this week):

==============================

SP (11): Cole, Rodon, Stroman, Gil, Schmidt, Cortes, Brubaker, Poteet, Gomez, Warren, Beeter

RP (7): Weaver, Hamilton, Effross, Leiter, Cousins, Mayza, De Los Santos

C (4): Trevino, Wells, Narvaez, Escarra

IF (8): Chisholm, LeMahieu, Volpe, Berti, Cabrera, Peraza, Vivas, Rice

OF (4): Judge, Dominguez, Pereira, Grisham

DH (1): Stanton

 

[jon abbey]

Wow, BOS has 25 pitchers on their 40 man after adding Wilson, that herd indeed needs to be thinned by spring.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yeah, its why the suggestions to add 3-4 relievers and a few starters don’t really make much sense. There’s a few easy cuts here (Shugart, Murphy, Mata, Horn,), but then it starts getting tricky; which is why adding a fringe guy like Wilson now is kind of curious.

 

[simplicio]

I'm here to make Jon happy.

SP (10): Houck, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Criswell, Priester, Fitts, W. Gonzalez, Perales, Murphy

RP (15): Slaten, Hendriks, Whitlock, Guerrero, Wilson, Bernardino, Weissert, Winckowski, Campbell, Kelly, Booser, Penrod, Shugart, Horn, Mata

C (1): Wong

IF (9): Devers, Story, Casas, Grissom, Hamilton, R. Gonzalez, Sogard, Gasper, Valdez

OF (4): Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Refsnyder

DH (1): Yoshida

 

[beautokyo]

I wonder if Soto has a hard time with Wilson and with Boston signing him would be a good sign.

 

[simplicio]

Yeah, its why the suggestions to add 3-4 relievers and a few starters don’t really make much sense. There’s a few easy cuts here (Shugart, Murphy, Mata, Horn,), but then it starts getting tricky; which is why adding a fringe guy like Wilson now is kind of curious.

If Wilson was a RHP it would be weird, but there is a pretty clear need for another LHRP that they can trust with higher lev situations than Bernardino and Booser.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I wonder if Soto has a hard time with Wilson and with Boston signing him would be a good sign.

3-7, 1571 OPS vs Wilson. Hasn’t faced him since 2021.

 

[simplicio]

I'd be fine with leaving any of the following unprotected to keep a high-upside lotto ticket.

Winckowski
W. Gonzalez
Murphy
Guerrero
Wilson
R. Gonzalez
Sogard
Shugart
Campbell (the pitcher)
Bernardino
Horn
Gasper
Valdez
Mata

I'm guessing you stopped watching games by mid September when Luis Guerrero came up and was absolutely nails? 29 other teams would snap him up in a heartbeat.

Wilson we obviously aren't leaving unprotected after coming to terms today.
Romy Gonzalez has a ton of versatility around the infield as one of our primary subs and kills LHP.
Isaiah Campbell was sidelined early by injury and his raw stuff is too good to give up on that quickly IMO.

The rest I wouldn't mind losing, though Bernie and Winck have had enough MLB success that I'd be kinda mad if they didn't hold them for trades at least.

 

[beautokyo]

3-7, 1571 OPS vs Wilson. Hasn’t faced him since 2021.

Thank you. I guess that's not it.

 

[jon abbey]

I'm here to make Jon happy.

SP (10): Houck, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Criswell, Priester, Fitts, W. Gonzalez, Perales, Murphy

RP (15): Slaten, Hendriks, Whitlock, Guerrero, Wilson, Bernardino, Weissert, Winckowski, Campbell, Kelly, Booser, Penrod, Shugart, Horn, Mata

C (1): Wong

IF (9): Devers, Story, Casas, Grissom, Hamilton, R. Gonzalez, Sogard, Gasper, Valdez

OF (4): Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Refsnyder

DH (1): Yoshida

Thank you!

Just one catcher on the 40 man, that will obviously need to be addressed too.

 

[simplicio]

Yeah, if we don't end up with Kelly, Grandal or Higgy I'm going to be pretty upset (or I guess Jansen if they have some insight into why he turned garbage suddenly this year).

 

[Diamond Don Aase]

Yeah, its why the suggestions to add 3-4 relievers and a few starters don’t really make much sense. There’s a few easy cuts here (Shugart, Murphy, Mata, Horn,), but then it starts getting tricky; which is why adding a fringe guy like Wilson now is kind of curious.

Unless he has suffered a significant setback in his recovery from surgery, it would make little sense to cut Murphy. In his 2023 debut, Murphy performed much better than Wilson has over the past four seasons— a lower ERA, FIP a full run better, and a home run rate approximately half as high. Murphy also would provide another multi-inning relief option, reducing the Red Sox’ reliance on Garrett Whitlock’s often-tenuous health.

Most pertinent to this discussion, Murphy occupies a 40-man roster spot just temporarily and should be returned to the 60-day Injured List as soon as the beginning of February. Assuming that Michael Fulmer is healthy and Mickey Gasper, Bailey Horn, and Bryan Mata are designated for assignment to accommodate Rule 5 protections, Boston’s 40-man roster would still include Brennan Bernardino, Cam Booser, Zack Kelly, Chase Shugart, Nick Sogard, and Enmanuel Valdez, none of whom seem more likely to contribute to the Red Sox’ next legitimate contender than Murphy.

 

[simplicio]

Unless he has suffered a significant setback in his recovery from surgery, it would make little sense to cut Murphy. In his 2023 debut, Murphy performed much better than Wilson has over the past four seasons— a lower ERA, FIP a full run better, and a home run rate approximately half as high. Murphy also would provide another multi-inning relief option, reducing the Red Sox’ reliance on Garrett Whitlock’s often-tenuous health.

Most pertinent to this discussion, Murphy occupies a 40-man roster spot just temporarily and should be returned to the 60-day Injured List as soon as the beginning of February. Assuming that Michael Fulmer is healthy and Mickey Gasper, Bailey Horn, and Bryan Mata are designated for assignment to accommodate Rule 5 protections, Boston’s 40-man roster would still include Brennan Bernardino, Cam Booser, Zack Kelly, Chase Shugart, Nick Sogard, and Enmanuel Valdez, none of whom seem more likely to contribute to the Red Sox’ next legitimate contender than Murphy.

I think you're investing more faith in a guy who couldn't get his FIP under 5 in AAA than he probably deserves. Like maybe he can eventually hack it as a low lev guy, but I wouldn't trust him to improve on what Bernie and Booser have done.

They pretty clearly didn't get Wilson to repeat his performance of the past few years; they think there's something there they can work with.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, in case anyone is unclear, Wilson is on the 40 man roster and he is on the 26 man roster unless he gets hurt. He can't be optioned and he has a major league deal.

 

[YTF]

Thank you!

Just one catcher on the 40 man, that will obviously need to be addressed too.

Yeah, if we don't end up with Kelly, Grandal or Higgy I'm going to be pretty upset (or I guess Jansen if they have some insight into why he turned garbage suddenly this year).

I'm guessing Teel gets added at some point as well. Not having an option ready to promote in WOOstah has been problematic in the past.

 

[Fishy1]

I think you're investing more faith in a guy who couldn't get his FIP under 5 in AAA than he probably deserves. Like maybe he can eventually hack it as a low lev guy, but I wouldn't trust him to improve on what Bernie and Booser have done.

They pretty clearly didn't get Wilson to repeat his performance of the past few years; they think there's something there they can work with.

He also had a 3.63 xERA and good FIP in 47 major league innings that year. Stuffwise and peripherals wise he was pretty great. I think they'd be loathe to cut him considering how long they've kept Mata around, for example.

I also remember there being a lot of talk about messing around with his and Drohans pitch mixes in AAA, encouraging them to try new stuff regardless of results. Might explain why his BB numbers were so much worse in AAA as compared to the majors. (Like 5/9 in AAA and only 3/9 in a similar sample size in the bigs).

We'll see though!

 

[ZMart100]

I'm guessing Teel gets added at some point as well. Not having an option ready to promote in WOOstah has been problematic in the past.

I don't think Teel is ready yet and he may need another season at AAA to refine his defense. I think they sign some veteran for AAA to be emergency depth. I wouldn't start Teel's clock until I'm ready to have him come up and be the every day catcher.

 

[YTF]

I don't think Teel is ready yet and he may need another season at AAA to refine his defense. I think they sign some veteran for AAA to be emergency depth. I wouldn't start Teel's clock until I'm ready to have him come up and be the every day catcher.

Or perhaps that's Gasper's role if they keep him around. Hard to see a veteran signing on to be Teel's backup while hoping to get a call up.

 

[Fishy1]

Or perhaps that's Gasper's role if they keep him around. Hard to see a veteran signing on to be Teel's backup while hoping to get a call up.

I don't think they're enamored with Gasper, but as a guy with options who destroyed minor league pitching the last two years, I'd say he's a good bet to ride the Dalbec shuttle as any. Hopefully they're looking for another catcher, though, because Gasper want much better than Wong as a receiver.

 

[ZMart100]

Or perhaps that's Gasper's role if they keep him around. Hard to see a veteran signing on to be Teel's backup while hoping to get a call up.

Somebody is going to be left without a MLB offer. Teams always find fringe guys to take an opt out MiLB deal.

The important point for this thread I think is that Teel doesn't need to be added anytime soon. He won't factor into the Rule 5 decision making and there are likely to be spots opened up from the 60 day IL by the earliest time he might be added.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

There is no way Gasper will hold on to that 40 man spot much longer. I could see him sticking around the organization but think his odds of making it back to the bigs are probably not great.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I imagine Wong plus a defense minded C on the 26 will be sufficient. If one goes down, Teel will be up and platooned. I don’t think they need any AAAA types on the 40-man this season

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I imagine Wong plus a defense minded C on the 26 will be sufficient. If one goes down, Teel will be up and platooned. I don’t think they need any AAAA types on the 40-man this season

Chances are pretty good they'll also sign a veteran to a minor league deal and stash him in Worcester so if they need to make an emergency add for a catcher, they have one with experience. That was Tyler Heineman this year, Jorge Alfaro and Caleb Hamilton the year before, and so on.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Chances are pretty good they'll also sign a veteran to a minor league deal and stash him in Worcester so if they need to make an emergency add for a catcher, they have one with experience. That was Tyler Heineman this year, Jorge Alfaro and Caleb Hamilton the year before, and so on.

But they also didn’t really have any highly ranked prospect about ready to graduate to the ML at any of those times.

 

[simplicio]

I wouldn't say Teel is about ready yet. Like best possible scenario I could see him making the jump at the deadline, but I think '26 is way more likely.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

But they also didn’t really have any highly ranked prospect about ready to graduate to the ML at any of those times.

Right. But someone's got to catch the WooSox games that Teel doesn't. They're not likely going to roll with Nathan Hickey as the break glass catcher. They'll have someone that can be added to the 40-man if needed and easily DFA/outright back to Worcester when they no longer need him.

 

[jon abbey]

This has to be finalized by tomorrow, any eligible players who teams want protected need to be added to the 40 man.

 

[simplicio]

QO deadline: tomorrow, 4pm ET
Rule 5 deadline: tomorrow, 6pm ET
Non-tender deadline: Friday, 6pm ET

 

[chrisfont9]

Jen McCaffrey's 40-man roundup:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5923774/2024/11/18/red-sox-2024-rule-5-protection-candidates/

Key Qs are Fullmer, Dobbins and Jhostynxon. Re the latter, why would teams take a guy with 30 games above A-ball, which were nothing special, and put him on the major league roster? I get that you can stash a guy on the 26/IL for a year if he's a really tantalizing prospect, but he seems below that level.

 

[simplicio]

I'm surprised she lists Campbell as a potential non-tender. Don't know if that's surface level reaction to his bad year or is there's unreported knowledge about his injuries.

I'm thinking add:
Fulmer
Dobbins
Garcia
Monegro

Subtract:
Horn
Shugart
Valdez
Mata? (but he's totally a wild card in my mind)

 

[Cassvt2023]

I'm surprised she lists Campbell as a potential non-tender. Don't know if that's surface level reaction to his bad year or is there's unreported knowledge about his injuries.

I'm thinking add:
Fulmer
Dobbins
Garcia
Monegro

Subtract:
Horn
Shugart
Valdez
Mata? (but he's totally a wild card in my mind)

id be pretty surprised if any team would use a roster spot for the Scrabble word.

 

[Diamond Don Aase]

id be pretty surprised if any team would use a roster spot for the Scrabble word.

As enticing as his raw power might be, Garcia’s Double-A debut exposed immaturity in his swing decisions. A corner outfielder with as limited upper-level experience as Password has not been selected in the major-league portion of the Rule 5 Draft since 2016. Given that major league pitching staffs have since grown from 11 and sometimes 12 pitchers to nearly-universally 13, another team would be inviting significant risk by rostering him.

 

[simplicio]

He's a center fielder though, with strong defense and a good arm as his carrying tools, and just climbed three levels in a year at age 21. Not incredibly difficult for a White Sox or A's to roster him as a 4th OF for a year. I'd rather lose Bailey Horn for nothing than him.

 

[Cassvt2023]

He's a center fielder though, with strong defense and a good arm as his carrying tools, and just climbed three levels in a year at age 21. Not incredibly difficult for a White Sox or A's to roster him as a 4th OF for a year. I'd rather lose Bailey Horn for nothing than him.

Well yes, if it came down to that choice, I agree wholeheartedly. Horn to me is a replaceable piece. But you also probably want to protect Fulmer, Monegro and Dobbins so there will be tough decisions. I'd argue that a small market team like Oakland or a terrible one like the White Sox would be more likely to take Valdez, who has shown flashes with the bat at this level, can play a little 2B and certainly can DH, over the Scrabble word, who barely played at double A, has a projected mlb call up as mid 2026, per Soxprospects.com, and is listed as 165 lbs. Don't get me wrong, I don't want to lose this kid, he seems like an interesting player, but I also don't think he is someone that any major league team could afford to keep on the ML roster the whole year. That is usually a pitcher that you can hide in the back of the bullpen.

 

[simplicio]

If someone takes Valdez, godspeed I guess? Garcia has the potential to be a positive asset for the Red Sox at some point. Valdez has never demonstrated a skill set that I want to see on the field in Boston and he's 100% redundant with Hamilton.

 

[Cassvt2023]

If someone takes Valdez, godspeed I guess? Garcia has the potential to be a positive asset for the Red Sox at some point. Valdez has never demonstrated a skill set that I want to see on the field in Boston and he's 100% redundant with Hamilton.

I think we are in total agreement on Valdez. He must have zero trade value, even as a throw in. My point is that as a position player, he is more likely to be selected than Scrabble boy i would guess. You have to protect all the pitchers you can (like at least the 3 i mentioned) because they are easier for a team to select and stash.

 

[Sin Duda]

I think we are in total agreement on Valdez. He must have zero trade value, even as a throw in. My point is that as a position player, he is more likely to be selected than Scrabble boy i would guess. You have to protect all the pitchers you can (like at least the 3 i mentioned) because they are easier for a team to select and stash.

Dude's got a fan-generated nickname already; it's Password, and the player personally approved that one (though if we had a vote, "Scrabble" might win so well played).