#37 Semi Ojeleye
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It is really hard to judge his upside, because we’ve seen so little of him.
Offensively, he’s a major liability, but if he becomes a good 3-point shooter, then he’s a floor spacer with positive value in the right situation (which the Celtics should be able to provide).
Without the 3, he’s a deep bench guy with occasional value based on 1-on-1 matchups. With the three, he’s an asset on any team that can put him on their floor with shot creators and guys who can run an offense.
Offensively, he’s a major liability, but if he becomes a good 3-point shooter, then he’s a floor spacer with positive value in the right situation (which the Celtics should be able to provide).
Without the 3, he’s a deep bench guy with occasional value based on 1-on-1 matchups. With the three, he’s an asset on any team that can put him on their floor with shot creators and guys who can run an offense.
Jae Crowder is the obvious choice. And while not similar to Big Baby Davis, he strikes me as a guy who will have offer the same type of value in different ways. He's a guy you like having on the bench until you have to pay him. Luckily he's signed cheap for 3 more years.
On that note, I've always thought Jae Crowder was incredibly overrated and I don't think Semi is that far off from being a similar player. Crowder's 16/17 season looks like a huge outlier. If you remove that season, you have a guy who is a career .324 3 point shooter. Ojeleye was at .320 this year. Crowder is the better passer and gets way more deflections though. It's hard to come up with a true comp with Ojeleye because of those deflections. It usually means a lack of length, athleticism or BBIQ and he definitely doesn't lack the first 2.
And while he's only getting significant burn in the playoffs because of injury, Semi was a regular rotation player all year. I'm also not sure his sample size of 124 3 point attempts tells us a lot. He ended the season hitting 19/50 3's in the last 31 games for a .380 mark. Prior to that, he was 21/75 .280. In college, he shot over 40% on 195 attempts and was a 79% FT shooter on 237 attempts.
A lot of his value will depend on just how well he shoots the 3. If he's hitting 32% of them, he is a situational big. If he's draining 36%+, he's a 20+ minute rotational player on every team in the league.
edit: With all that said, I'm not very high on him but he offers value to the team and that's all you can ask for from a 2nd round pick.
I think someone like Durant or George would be perfectly happy to just shoot over a guy who doesn't contest shots.
Guarding Giannis and now Simmons makes it easy to forget that Semi isn't a good defender in most matchups. He does one thing really well. That thing is really valuable to the Celtics right now, in these playoffs, because we happen to be playing two teams who run their offenses through big wings who are not shooters. It's much less valuable against everyone else unless he learns how to use his hands to disrupt shots (ideally, he'd learn to disrupt passes and dribbling too, but that is less essential).
The lack of ability to defend with this hands is a real concern because that is normally a pretty fixed trait by the time guys get to the NBA. On the other hand, Semi is so bad at it, it is hard to imagine he cannot improve given that he clearly has good anticipation skills with his feet.
To illustrate with statistics, Semi's DRPM was -1.18, which is in the same ballpark as Carmelo and Kyrie. (It's also where Jae is this season, so it is possible he is actually a good defensive player who just is being measured poorly because SSS.) His on-off defensive value is -2.5. His D-PIPM is -1.40.
I don't post these stats to downplay his impact in these playoffs. He has been a huge defensive asset. But that is precisely because these two matchups are perhaps the best two matchups in the entire NBA for his incredibly unique skill set. His more general utility is still very very limited until he adds pieces to his game on both sides of the ball.
Yeah, I don't think anyone in the Celtics' organization has any illusions as to what he currently is. Brad's usage patterns suggest that the stats are accurately evaluating his value: Semi is glued to the bench outside of very specific (but high-leverage) matchups.
Disagree with this. While Semi does provide a good matchup for Giannis and Simmons, his best attribute - which is really important in BOS's defensive scheme, is his ability to guard multiple positions credibly thanks to his quick feet.
Being able to do that while on his rookie salary to me means that he's guaranteed a spot on the Cs for the next few years whether or not he can shoot. If he can start to shoot consistently, he'll get more consistent minutes. But even if he doesn't, he'll remain on the Cs.
As for deflections, I'm going to guess from watching Semi that he doesn't get a lot of deflections because he's more focused on keeping his man in front of him and using his hands to keep himself on balance rather than reaching for the ball.
On one hand, I agree with a lot of what you are saying.
On the other:
I think that Semi has been given repeated instructions (which he has absorbed thoroughly) not to reach on defense. Reaching with the hands gets more deflections and blocks, but also more foul calls -- especially for rookies, who never get the benefit of the doubt from referees. As a result, he can stay on the floor longer than most rookies, and his coach trusts him to execute the team's defensive scheme -- because of his footwork and his advanced court awareness, and because he doesn't try to do too much on defense.
In contrast, Jae Crowder's defensive game depends on his ability to reach in without fouling (or at least without getting fouls whistled on him). Semi's hands don't look to be as quick or as strong as Jae's.
On offense, I don't see any signs of good ballhandling, distribution or finishing at the rim. Everything depends on whether he can improve his accuracy from deep. College 3pt% and his repeatable release both suggest that the answer will be yes in a few years.
Great Herald piece on Semi and his family out today, with a few unflattering things to say about Coach K and the Duke program: http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2018/05/family_faith_pave_semi_ojeleye_s_path_to_home_with_celtics
Fun fact: "Jesusemilore Talodabijesu" means "Gift to me".
Fun fact: "Jesusemilore Talodabijesu" means "Gift to me".
If he can get his 3p% up to 33-35%, I think he'll be a second unit regular next year. As has been mentioned, his ability to move his feet and defend multiple players outweighs his lack of ability to get his hands on the ball through strips and blocks.
This isn't necessarily the thread to discuss it in depth but look at what Brad has done with Rozier and Jaylen. He was known as a player developer at Butler and did fantastic things with the skinny, athletic kid we signed last offseason. Now Danny is throwing top athletes at him who each seem to be smart, malleable young men and lo and behold, they have outperformed their projections. We've seen a ton of guys improve under Brad during the last 5 years, Semi is going to follow that path as well IMHO.
This isn't necessarily the thread to discuss it in depth but look at what Brad has done with Rozier and Jaylen. He was known as a player developer at Butler and did fantastic things with the skinny, athletic kid we signed last offseason. Now Danny is throwing top athletes at him who each seem to be smart, malleable young men and lo and behold, they have outperformed their projections. We've seen a ton of guys improve under Brad during the last 5 years, Semi is going to follow that path as well IMHO.
Semi is hilariously larger than both his parents in that photo.
One great thing about Brad is that he really emphasizes what people can do, not what people cannot do. By allowing people to play to their strengths, he allows them to grow other parts of their game.
I also think it's great how he many different guys he plays during the regular season and how he keeps them on the floor even in the face of runs. There's no better way of learning.
Too bad he couldn't get through to James Young (man, what a waste of talent).
Just for reference sake: Ojeleye was down near the bottom of the team in deflections per 36 (1.3, right next to perennial defensive under-achiever Marcus Morris) for the regular season. He got 40 deflections in the 73 games he played. That's not good. Marcus Smart, who's elite at this, average 3.3. Rozier and Tatum are around 2. We can ho and hum all we want about how Semi moves his feet very well -- and he does! -- but deflections lead to turnovers which lead to very efficient points. Deflections are, on average, a pretty good measure of defense. The guys who lead the league in deflections every year are who's who of elite defenders.
Yes, he's a rookie, but that's not much of an excuse either: Even Abdel Nader got 2.3 (and yes, I'm aware a lot of that is garbage time minutes against garbage players). He's down near the bottom of rookie deflections per 36 too, rubbing lax elbows with defenders of ill repute like Kyle Kuzma and Lauri Markkanen.
The news ain't all bad: my eyes told me he's been slightly more active with his hands these playoffs (certainly not as active as guys like Brown, Tatum, Rozier, and Smart) and that bears out. He's got 7 in 148 minutes (Marcus Smart has 8 in 115). I remember at least one impressive strip on a Giannis drive and another in the first game of this series leaping to deflect a entry pass. I'm aware that there's almost certainly a sample size issue here -- I just don't know how these things stabilize. 148 minutes seems like plenty to me, but I'm not really sure.
So even if there's not terribly much that you can glean from that, it's something to watch over the next however many games.
Yes, he's a rookie, but that's not much of an excuse either: Even Abdel Nader got 2.3 (and yes, I'm aware a lot of that is garbage time minutes against garbage players). He's down near the bottom of rookie deflections per 36 too, rubbing lax elbows with defenders of ill repute like Kyle Kuzma and Lauri Markkanen.
The news ain't all bad: my eyes told me he's been slightly more active with his hands these playoffs (certainly not as active as guys like Brown, Tatum, Rozier, and Smart) and that bears out. He's got 7 in 148 minutes (Marcus Smart has 8 in 115). I remember at least one impressive strip on a Giannis drive and another in the first game of this series leaping to deflect a entry pass. I'm aware that there's almost certainly a sample size issue here -- I just don't know how these things stabilize. 148 minutes seems like plenty to me, but I'm not really sure.
So even if there's not terribly much that you can glean from that, it's something to watch over the next however many games.
To my eyes, Semi's footwork and dense stature is the main reason why he's been able to step in and be so effective. For a guy his size, he's able to lower his center of gravity and shuffle laterally with quickness to cut off the route of a larger offensive player. This alone has allowed him to step in and contribute as a rookie, but when being matched up against truly elite bigs, they are able to raise up or fade away for a bucket. I think once he gets a full off-season of training in, a focus on involving his hands when contesting shots and being active in trying to cause deflections will allow for his maturation as a defensive player.
It seems to me that his method of contesting shots is about getting his hand into the face of the shooter rather than on the ball. I wonder if this was coached into him, either in college or in the pros.
I think you're on the money here about getting a hand in the face. If you watch MaMo defend (when he's actually trying), he steps into the limits of the shooter's landing zone and his hand follows their face long after the ball has been released. Even this kind of consistent behavior would make Semi a better defender. I have noticed him getting his hands up more as the playoffs have worn on, but my point was that he literally wasn't getting his hands up at all until recently. Nothing to back this up other than from memory, so I could be wrong.
I yelled "I hate you" at the TV and woke up my wife, who had drifted off to sleep briefly. He redeemed himself with a nice tip and a three that stayed down. Sad moment though.
Had to feel for the guy when he air-balled the dunk. Semi is grabbing hard for that #13 spot.
Playing him at the end, against Thomas Bryant, was a head-scratcher last night
Semi should only be kept fresh with low leverage minutes so he can play 15 physical minutes against Giannis, Bron, Simmons, Kawhi types
On the plus side, he hit a three and had an important putback in the 4th quarter.
On the minus side, any time he drives you all but know he is going to turn the ball over - that happened twice last night in key situations. And Brad went to him due hoping to get a defensive lift that didn;t happen. I'd rather have seen more minutes for Poirier or Grant (neither of whom was all that good, but still).
On the minus side, any time he drives you all but know he is going to turn the ball over - that happened twice last night in key situations. And Brad went to him due hoping to get a defensive lift that didn;t happen. I'd rather have seen more minutes for Poirier or Grant (neither of whom was all that good, but still).
They started garbage time before it was actually garbage time. The NBA regular season: it’s Fan-tastic!
It's pretty rough to keep a guy on the roster who is literally only good at one thing, but that thing is completely essential to winning in the playoffs (defending Giannis or LeBron).
I don't play Fantasy sports but I have to imagine Semi is like the worst fantasy player ever. He somehow has worse rate stats than Dragan Bender.
I know a box score only tells you so much but wow.
Career rate stats: Rebounding 7.6%, Assists 3.3%, Steals 0.9%, Blocks 0.4%.
This year: Rebounding 6.4%, Assists 2.6%, Steals 0.5%, Blocks 0.0%.
He's literally regressed in every single category. Granted SSS and all that. Kinda surprised his 3 point shot didn't develop into something better than it is now but his sample size in college wasn't exactly huge.
Is he the worst player on the team (minus the Maine crew)? I haven't really been impressed much with Poirier but I've only seen him play sparingly for the Celtics, none of his International career.
I know a box score only tells you so much but wow.
Career rate stats: Rebounding 7.6%, Assists 3.3%, Steals 0.9%, Blocks 0.4%.
This year: Rebounding 6.4%, Assists 2.6%, Steals 0.5%, Blocks 0.0%.
He's literally regressed in every single category. Granted SSS and all that. Kinda surprised his 3 point shot didn't develop into something better than it is now but his sample size in college wasn't exactly huge.
Is he the worst player on the team (minus the Maine crew)? I haven't really been impressed much with Poirier but I've only seen him play sparingly for the Celtics, none of his International career.
Not really. Who would you replace him with if you didn't have to keep him? Tacko Fall? Romeo Langford? I doubt they'd contribute any more value to the Celtics this year than Semi. Maybe it would be better for their development to get his minutes but I dunno.
These guys are fun to argue about and speculate on but for the most part they aren't going to really impact the W/L column.
He also gave up two fouls that led to free throws as both teams were in the bonus relatively early. Can't recall if the Wizards hit the FTA or not, but it wasn't a terribly positive night for Semi. Did Javonte Green play in the second half? It was kind of a curious night with the rotations - a lot of Green and no Semi in the first half, and then Semi and I think no (or limited) Green in the second half.
Beal is a really good player, so it's obviously not surprising the Celtics couldn't guard him. But, I feel like this is a problem that has continued since last season is that the team doesn't have a smaller, quicker "Marcus Smart". Someone who can come in and play defense against these types of players. The Celtics have also been playing a lot with both Kemba and Edwards/Wannamaker on the floor - which means they are small at the 2 as well, making their backcourt defense weak (acknowledge that Kemba has been better than advertised on the defensive end).
Beal is a really good player, so it's obviously not surprising the Celtics couldn't guard him. But, I feel like this is a problem that has continued since last season is that the team doesn't have a smaller, quicker "Marcus Smart". Someone who can come in and play defense against these types of players. The Celtics have also been playing a lot with both Kemba and Edwards/Wannamaker on the floor - which means they are small at the 2 as well, making their backcourt defense weak (acknowledge that Kemba has been better than advertised on the defensive end).
Semi will have made almost $4.3 million in his short NBA career. Pretty nice gig.
By the way, agree with @NomarsFool - Bradley Beal is pretty freaking good.
By the way, agree with @NomarsFool - Bradley Beal is pretty freaking good.
Isn't this the very definition of an end of the bench guy? Would you rather have a human victory cigar like Hank Finkel?
Semi nearly doubled his season scoring output last night, but at 12 total points for the season, he is one of six players in NBA history who have played more than 90 minutes and have 12 or fewer points. They are:
(name / season / age / team / mp / points)
1996-97 |
39 |
HOU |
93 |
4 | |
2005-06 |
33 |
LAL |
121 |
7 | |
2013-14 |
28 |
TOT |
160 |
7 | |
2003-04 |
29 |
HOU |
133 |
11 | |
1984-85 |
22 |
IND |
143 |
11 | |
2019-20 |
25 |
BOS |
94 |
12 |
Not that this is news to you, but there aren't a whole lot of top-defenders-of-top-PGs. The league's best defenders tend to be big 2s / small 3s who can guard 1-4, or your classic rim-protecting centers. Before Marcus Smart was the likes of Tony Allen (same height), or your wing-sized guys from Shane Battier to Kawhi. I'm trying to imagine who you're thinking of when you say "smaller quicker Marcus Smart", because everyone I know meeting the first two criteria is on the court primarily for distribution and shooting, not defense. Maybe Rondo?
Here are the top seasons by DWS from a guard 6'3" or below, who's active. After Rondo, Curry and Westbrook, it's a lot of noise and one-offs.
Amusing to me is #25 on that list, Eric Bledsoe last year. I guess Rozier's taunts really landed hard on him.
Well, they don't have to be small, they just need to be quick.
I know Beal is really, really good. It was just frustrating last night watching him pretty much do whatever he wanted as it seemed like the Celtics could do nothing against him. Since he doesn't average 40 points a game, other teams must find some way of at least slightly containing him better than the Celtics do. It would be nice if the Celtics had some player on the roster they could put into the game in that situation to try and slow a player like that down. Like they do with Semi for strong 3-4s. Continuing back to last season, it seems like when the Celtics face these quick guards (like Kemba) they get killed.
But, as someone else pointed out, maybe it's not the guard who is "guarding" him as it is about having a rim protector.
I know Beal is really, really good. It was just frustrating last night watching him pretty much do whatever he wanted as it seemed like the Celtics could do nothing against him. Since he doesn't average 40 points a game, other teams must find some way of at least slightly containing him better than the Celtics do. It would be nice if the Celtics had some player on the roster they could put into the game in that situation to try and slow a player like that down. Like they do with Semi for strong 3-4s. Continuing back to last season, it seems like when the Celtics face these quick guards (like Kemba) they get killed.
But, as someone else pointed out, maybe it's not the guard who is "guarding" him as it is about having a rim protector.
Yeah, they haven't let other guards really go off like that this year. Doncic got his, but a lot of that is his sky-high usage rate. The lack of rim protection definitely trickles down.
Hank installed some custom shelves at my work study job in college. Good dude. Probably could drive to the hole better than Ojeleye.
Your point is sound. May as well have the on-ball beef at that spot and seldom play him than some guy that has upside and will be spoiled by sitting most nights.
that made me chuckle
poor Semi has hit a new descriptive low, "on-ball beef"
it looked so promising when Pure Sweat released those vids a few summers back
I wouldn't necessarily say "last guy off the bench". I think it is more that his role needs to defined very specifically: guard the big athletic wing whose outside shooting is mediocre at best. Period. He's very good at that, lousy at literally everything else one does on a basketball court. If he's on the floor outside of one of those rare matchups where he can be useful, Stevens should immediately bench him every time he tries to drive to the basket no matter how open it looks.
Word. And the biggest hands that I've ever seen. I think that he could have open hand slapped me into my junior year.
on-ball beef!
not sure if Grant has the quickness but if he can start doing it (w/ JB & Smart) then Semi becomes plant-based deal filler
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6_eWWfNB54
I was unclear but this is what I meant. Last guy off the bench except when it’s the perfect matchup — Giannis, Simmons, etc.
One good game and Semi is shooting 50% from the field and 44% from 3. Might have been a little early to write him off. Or not.