2nd Round Pick Jud Fabian will not be signed

Rovin Romine

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Seems like a risky use of a #40 pick without an agreement in place.

Jaden Hill, among others was still on the board. I get that it's just a crapshoot to a certain extent, but like the scratch ticket man says, you can't play 'em if you've don't got 'em.
 

caminante11

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At least the Red Sox get the same pick next year. So that could work out even better.

They may have even wanted this to happen.
 

moondog80

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At least the Red Sox get the same pick next year. So that could work out even better.

They may have even wanted this to happen.
I won't go as far as saying they wanted this to happen. But, the fact that they get the same pick next year seems like a lot of leverage in the club's favor.
 

nattysez

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I won't go as far as saying they wanted this to happen. But, the fact that they get the same pick next year seems like a lot of leverage in the club's favor.
100%. The Mets' decision not to sign Rocker has highlighted the unfairness of teams being able to derail the pro career of a draftee with essentially zero downside. I assume there will be too many other issues to address in the CBA to spend much time on this one, so I don't expect this will change any time soon.
 

EL Jeffe

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When Callis was on the SoxProspect podcast the other week, he expected Fabian to sign for slot to a bit above slot (IIRC). I imagine the Red Sox also assumed he'd eventually relent and sign, because most kids are going to take $2mil over going back to school. Fabian's betting on himself, and hey--more power to him. It's hard to imagine he comes out on top on this gamble but it's just one of those things. Red Sox took a gamble Fabian would settle for less; Fabian's taking a gamble he'll get more in year. Red Sox get the safety net of pick #41next year...Fabian not so much.
 

burstnbloom

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I like Fabian a lot. I think he figures out the K thing as it seems like a bit of an anomaly early this season. But even at his best, he's still a 25% K guy in college. You can dream on all of his tools but he was always a tremendous risk that the hit tool would sink him in pro ball. I still think he will be able to do that, but the upside for him here is that he has a monster season as a junior and gets picked in the top half of the first round and gets....$4m? The downside is he has a similar season and clubs dream a little less on his ability to figure it out and he signs for $250k in the 11th round like Niko. He's taking all the risk.

The Red Sox get the same pick back next year, in a draft with significantly less uncertainty, and it adds almost $2m to their draft pool that they wouldnt have had. Sure it delays the return on the asset for another year but it's not really a bad outcome for them.
 

DJnVa

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100%. The Mets' decision not to sign Rocker has highlighted the unfairness of teams being able to derail the pro career of a draftee with essentially zero downside. I assume there will be too many other issues to address in the CBA to spend much time on this one, so I don't expect this will change any time soon.
Well, there's some downside. The Mets essentially traded this year's #1 for next year's. In most sports, if you trade for a future pick, you generally get a better pick. Or keep one this season and downgrade a bit next year.
 

burstnbloom

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Well, there's some downside. The Mets essentially traded this year's #1 for next year's. In most sports, if you trade for a future pick, you generally get a better pick. Or keep one this season and downgrade a bit next year.
That's not exactly right. They also get their regular 1st round pick. This is in additional to their regular draft pool. The Red Sox will have their first round pick, no 41 and another 2nd rounder. Same with the mets. They will have 11 and then their 1st rounder. There is very little net loss for the teams.
 

mauidano

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Wasn't Rocker a senior? What can he do? Play for a season in Japan?
Independent ball here in America or pro ball in Europe or Asia were the topics being kicked around. Indy ball is only going on for another month anyway so if he chooses that route he'd better hurry. Play somewhere close to home, he can pick and choose.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Independent ball here in America or pro ball in Europe or Asia were the topics being kicked around. Indy ball is only going on for another month anyway so if he chooses that route he'd better hurry. Play somewhere close to home, he can pick and choose.
Does he reenter the draft or look just to be signed as a Free Agent by any team? Hypothetically could the Sox offer him a contract? Not advocating... just wondering. Obviously he'd need IMO at least two years in the mL's before he likely would be ready for the jump so any contract would either be a mL offer (which he presumably wouldn't take) or a ML offer in which it would be a massive gamble that he could get to the ML's quickly and actually be better than replacement level? Seriously just asking.... just seems that playing anywhere else at all and facing lesser quality batters would hurt his value even more... even if he absolutely dominates in some independent league. Not to even mention if he gets injured. Pretty big gamble
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Does he reenter the draft or look just to be signed as a Free Agent by any team? Hypothetically could the Sox offer him a contract? Not advocating... just wondering. Obviously he'd need IMO at least two years in the mL's before he likely would be ready for the jump so any contract would either be a mL offer (which he presumably wouldn't take) or a ML offer in which it would be a massive gamble that he could get to the ML's quickly and actually be better than replacement level? Seriously just asking.... just seems that playing anywhere else at all and facing lesser quality batters would hurt his value even more... even if he absolutely dominates in some independent league. Not to even mention if he gets injured. Pretty big gamble
He's Met property (so to speak) until next year's draft. If he goes back to college, he can be drafted again next year. If he goes pro elsewhere, he can sign as a free agent after next year's draft.

This exposes more than one flaw in the draft system, namely that if draft picks or draftees were tradable, the Mets could simply trade his rights to another team. With Rocker, the Mets apparently haven't even made a reasonable offer. So it's not like he's asking for above slot and they can't do it (like the Sox and Fabian). Being able to trade him to a team willing to sign him for slot would be beneficial to everyone.
 

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… sure, if the cap space went with him. Unfortunately I don’t really see that working as more than an ad-hoc fix to this particular problem (ie Rocker). It doesn’t make sense to trade players right after they’re drafted as it seems like that loophole would lead to lots of potential abuse.

Rocker also could’ve sent his MRI’s out, which could’ve helped avoid the problem.
 
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AlNipper49

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Nope. Effectively Rocker and Fabian are in no man’s land. Their options are only to sign with their team, go back to school if eligible, play Indy league and get drafted next year or play Internationally and either get drafted or play there until they become free agent eligible. It’s not a perfect system, obviously.

I am surprised that Rocker isn’t going back to Indy. I think he’d make more there than playing Indy ball. He’d return as the most marketable player on perhaps the most marketable team. Maybe is arm really is messed up. It would definitely explain some of his more erratic games this year.

Fabian…that guy has some guts. That’s a lot to risk.
 

lexrageorge

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Fabian made his choice; there's no need to change the system for him. It may or may not have been a very wise choice, but it was his to make. I don't see how he was in any sort of "unfair" position.

The Rocker thing is strange, but it's the Mets, and as noted above, Rocker's camp shares some blame for how they handled the medicals. But it seems more of a one-off case.
 

soxhop411

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This may be a topic for another thread (as it applies to all sports) but I wonder how NIL will come into play In regards to leverage these athletes have when getting drafted, as that was not a card these players could use in prior drafts.
 

OCD SS

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You mean the system of a draft that is designed to suppress payments to labor by ownership by restricting their employment market to a single team, limits player options and is advantages the teams controlled by the owners?

in other news I am shocked to find gambling in this establishment!
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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With Rocker, the Mets apparently haven't even made a reasonable offer.
I know it's been reported "according to a source" that the Mets didn't make an offer to Rocker after his physical, but I am a little suspicious of that report. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets came down from their initial overslot offer to something below slot (but no insultingly low) because of what the team medicals showed, and Boras in turn pulled the plug, choosing to line up a PR offensive to excoriate the Mets and MLB. Is there any hard reporting that indicates the Mets didn't make any real offer after the medicals?
 

jon abbey

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I know it's been reported "according to a source" that the Mets didn't make an offer to Rocker after his physical, but I am a little suspicious of that report. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets came down from their initial overslot offer to something below slot (but no insultingly low) because of what the team medicals showed, and Boras in turn pulled the plug, choosing to line up a PR offensive to excoriate the Mets and MLB. Is there any hard reporting that indicates the Mets didn't make any real offer after the medicals?
Martino usually has accurate sources with the Mets, he reported they never made an actual offer. I agree that it's odd and presumably more info will come out at some point.
 

Rovin Romine

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You mean the system of a draft that is designed to suppress payments to labor by ownership by restricting their employment market to a single team, limits player options and is advantages the teams controlled by the owners?

in other news I am shocked to find gambling in this establishment!
I'm not sure what other system could work.

What do you do with a player who essentially colludes with Team A, and therefore does not sign with Team B?

That said, some of the onus is on the drafting team, and they should have to make something like a qualifying offer, which is rejected, to get a roll-over pick the following year.
 

Mantush

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Didn't MLB Network announce the Mets had a deal with Rocker in place almost immediately after they drafted him? I could have sworn that happened and they were reporting him as signed that same night.

With Fabian, I suspect after Meyer falling, their whole draft board was blown up and they decided (potentially) signing Fabian was too good to pass up because they would get the pick back. Chaim acknowledged they knew they there was a risk he wouldn't sign:

View: https://twitter.com/IanMBrowne/status/1421960119055749121


“It’s disappointing that we weren’t able to sign Jud,” Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom told MLB.com. “We knew it was possible going in. We knew that if we were unable to sign him, we would be able to get the pick again next year. That made it worth the risk in our minds.”
Personally, I think this was a good gamble. If he signs, you're getting someone you considered at #4 at the beginning of the year at #40. I understand wanting someone like Hill, but I suspect -- and this may not be true -- that the Sox probably rely more on models than some other teams and those models may not like pitchers that have Tommy John before leaving college.
 
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AlNipper49

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That’s true. Mayer worked out well but that logic makes complete sense. It’s also why I really like this current team. Gone are the days of ‘manager’s decisions’.
 

AB in DC

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That said, some of the onus is on the drafting team, and they should have to make something like a qualifying offer, which is rejected, to get a roll-over pick the following year.
Per NYT:
By M.L.B.’s rules, a failure to sign the 10th pick in 2021 means the Mets will receive the 11th overall pick in 2022 as compensation. While that would typically require the team to have offered Rocker at least 40 percent of his slotted bonus of $4.74 million, a lower offer was not necessary in this case because Rocker chose not to participate in the league’s predraft M.R.I. program.
 

Rovin Romine

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Well, there you go. It seems like a very sensible policy, with incentives to lessen gamesmanship from all parties. While I would prefer more of a free-market structure, the potential for abuse is too high. And without a sense of competitive balance, there's no reason to watch baseball, and hence no money to be made for anyone.
 

jon abbey

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Im still trying to wrap my head around the fact that the Mets decided to draft someone with the 10th pick who was unwilling to participate in the MLB predraft MRI program.
I believe most high pick pitchers don't as they feel it can only hurt them, pretty sure I read Jack Leiter didn't either this year and he went #2.
 

Average Reds

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That’s fair, but there were enough concerning signs about Rocker (drop off in velocity/concerning mechanics) to cause him to slip to #10 in the first place. So the issues that did pop up in his elbow shouldn’t have been a surprise.

And yet, they completely failed to hedge this risk, as they structured the remainder of the draft to create enough room to go more than a million over slot for Rocker.

Seems a tad careless even for the Mets.
 

NoXInNixon

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I'm not sure what other system could work.
Every team gets a certain amount of bonus money to spend, based on their previous year's record. They can negotiate with as many players as they want, and offer them as much as they want, until they have spent their bonus money pool.