268 Or Bust: Taking Aim At The Team HR Record Again

jon abbey

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Aaron Judge is the one starting this thread this year with his quotes today after NY's six HR game (Gardner 2, Judge 2, Sanchez, Isiah Gilliam), not me. For those who don't remember, last year NY broke the alltime record of 264 (1997 SEA), finishing at 267, hence the title.

"You get this whole team healthy, we're going to crush the record that we set last year," Judge said. "We've got a good team, a lot of guys that could make a lot of solid contact, and a lot of big boys that when they make contact, man, it goes. We're a team that's primed and ready to do that."

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/03/03/yankees-crush-home-run-record-aaron-judge-brett-gardner
 

brs3

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I think it'll be a challenge for a few reasons:

Didi Gregorius's numbers will not be replaced by Troy Tulowitzki. Is there another option that might pop 25+ HR?
Aaron Judge's sophomore power outage(compared to his rookie year) will need to be corrected.
Luke Volt will need to be the real deal over a full season, and/or Greg Bird will need to be the real deal and play close to a full season
They'll need the young guys to avoid sophomore slumps and guys like Gary Sanchez to show 2017 is the real Gary Sanchez. And they'll need guys like Gardner & LeMaheiu to provide some extra pop where possible.

The Yankee lineup is scary, but they've got some definite question marks when it comes to the HR record again. I have zero doubt they'll be in the playoff, but the record may not quite as within reach as Judge thinks.
 

crow216

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I think it'll be a challenge for a few reasons:

Didi Gregorius's numbers will not be replaced by Troy Tulowitzki. Is there another option that might pop 25+ HR?
Aaron Judge's sophomore power outage(compared to his rookie year) will need to be corrected.
Luke Volt will need to be the real deal over a full season, and/or Greg Bird will need to be the real deal and play close to a full season
They'll need the young guys to avoid sophomore slumps and guys like Gary Sanchez to show 2017 is the real Gary Sanchez. And they'll need guys like Gardner & LeMaheiu to provide some extra pop where possible.

The Yankee lineup is scary, but they've got some definite question marks when it comes to the HR record again. I have zero doubt they'll be in the playoff, but the record may not quite as within reach as Judge thinks.
Judge missed 2 months, Sanchez had a shit year, Voit only hit 15hrs last year and Bird hit 11, Stanton had a streaky and kind of off year, Hicks was hurt....

Maybe you have a point with Didi but he's not out the full year and yes, Tulo has plenty of pop and could easily tread homerun water while covering (if healthy). As we found out last year, power doesn't win you the division but I don't think there is much question that this team should shred through the record.
 

EvilEmpire

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The potential is there, but yeah, it comes down to health. It isn't a record I care much about, but I do hope for good health this season.
 

jon abbey

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If I were running an opposing team, I would want the yankees to be focused on that record.
I don't think they're actually focused on it except for the few days in late September when they're closing in on it, but it certainly worked out well for BOS last season.
 

terrynever

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I hope they are also focusing on defense, running the bases, situational hitting, and pitching while answering questions about home runs.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I enjoyed the chase and this thread last year. What the NYY did was (obviously) historic, and seeing the Big Blow games and the games where they didn't hit any HR, considering the power they had, was all fascinating.
 

jon abbey

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Stanton/Judge/Sanchez combined for 144 HRs in 2017 and just 83 in 2018, so there’s a bunch of potential upside there.
 

Brand Name

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I can't access them at work - has anyone pulled together PECOTA and ZIPS or other projections for the totals?
I'll use them all, but should be said ATC and THE BAT are my personal favorites. There's also the concern that most of these systems are too liberal in estimate of games played. For instance, no way in hell Billy Burns plays 109 for the Yankees this season, as ZiPS projects. Any players you'd like me to specifically run, to get a better estimate? Maybe the ones on the current 25 man, Hicks, and Gregorius?
 

SirPsychoSquints

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I'll use them all, but should be said ATC and THE BAT are my personal favorites. There's also the concern that most of these systems are too liberal in estimate of games played. For instance, no way in hell Billy Burns plays 109 for the Yankees this season, as ZiPS projects. Any players you'd like me to specifically run, to get a better estimate? Maybe the ones on the current 25 man, Hicks, and Gregorius?
I thought a lot of the projections use some sort of depth chart to get total games/PAs to a reasonable level and then project the entire team's performance?
 

BoSox Rule

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I'll use them all, but should be said ATC and THE BAT are my personal favorites. There's also the concern that most of these systems are too liberal in estimate of games played. For instance, no way in hell Billy Burns plays 109 for the Yankees this season, as ZiPS projects. Any players you'd like me to specifically run, to get a better estimate? Maybe the ones on the current 25 man, Hicks, and Gregorius?
ZiPS isn’t projecting playing time like that. It’s playing time and an MLB equivalent performance across all levels for players that get a projection.
 

jon abbey

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NY is petitioning the league to play in Camden Yards every week, 14 HRs in the 3 games this weekend puts them at 20 through 9 games.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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The Orioles have allowed 100 HR in 48 games, on a pace for 337.5. The record for HR allowed is the 2016 Reds with 258. Through 48 games, the Reds had allowed 79.

The Yankees are on pace to hit 252. The Twins are on pace to hit 304. Mariners 295. Astros 294.
 

jon abbey

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NY is precisely halfway through the season with 137 through 81 games. It's been a strange year with all of the injuries (9 HRs for Judge and Stanton combined) and with the increased HRs throughout MLB (NY is 5th currently), but there's an update.
 

jon abbey

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NY just obliterated the MLB record for homers in a month with 74 (old record 58). They did this without any contributions from Stanton, Hicks, Voit, Encarnacion or Andujar.

====================

Yankees MLB Record 74 HR in a Month

13 Gleyber Torres
9 DJ LeMahieu
8 Mike Ford
8 Aaron Judge
8 Gary Sanchez
7 Gio Urshela
6 Didi Gregorius
5 Mike Tauchman
3 Brett Gardner
3 Cameron Maybin
2 Kyle Higashioka
2 Austin Romine

===================

NY is at 254 for the season, on pace for 300 even. They’re 2nd in MLB behind the Twins and pretty unlikely to catch them, MIN is at 262 with 3 games in hand.
 

Marciano490

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NY just obliterated the MLB record for homers in a month with 74 (old record 58). They did this without any contributions from Stanton, Hicks, Voit, Encarnacion or Andujar.

====================

Yankees MLB Record 74 HR in a Month

13 Gleyber Torres
9 DJ LeMahieu
8 Mike Ford
8 Aaron Judge
8 Gary Sanchez
7 Gio Urshela
6 Didi Gregorius
5 Mike Tauchman
3 Brett Gardner
3 Cameron Maybin
2 Kyle Higashioka
2 Austin Romine

===================

NY is at 254 for the season, on pace for 300 even. They’re 2nd in MLB behind the Twins and pretty unlikely to catch them, MIN is at 262 with 3 games in hand.
Twins with 4 more HR through 6 innings.
 

axx

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Looking at the chart, the Dodgers and Astros have a good chance of hitting more than 268 this year as well.
 

jon abbey

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And they broke it in the 9th with another solo HR, six home runs and they lose 10-7.

Someone joked in this thread last year that the Yankees would get 300 (before the season) but the Twins are actually going to do it this year, possibly the Yankees too.
 

jon abbey

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Judge fittingly hits #268, 18 1/2 games still to go. They are seven behind the Twins right now.
 

jon abbey

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Now it is MIN 275, NYY 274, MIN still with two extra games to play. NY has outhomered MIN 89-59 since August 4, including 4 so far tonight (0 for MIN so far tonight).
 

jon abbey

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NY is up 280-279 on MIN, MIN still has 2 extra games left (16 to NY's 14). I didn't think NY had a chance to catch them, but it's going to be close.
 

DanoooME

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The last line of this table probably has a ton to do with it.

Minnesota Twins by Month

SplitGGSPAABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSTBGDPHBPSHSFIBBROEBAbiptOPS+sOPS+
April/March297271009907141233584501337481202.257.325.495.82044919132525.27796119
May2852911481020191292615561869398223.286.353.521.8745311215213110.313110131
June2612711061009142268512511374675237.266.327.472.798476171813512.30092108
July24324961852139230493521344587197.270.343.518.860441211127311.292106123
August2972811211009189284543591832289256.281.346.516.86252113141856.321107120
Sept/Oct12811431378449114211430044100.241.330.376.7061421071112.2997492
 

jon abbey

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MIN is up 289-288 on NY, 10 games left to NY's 9.

Stanton is finally back but Encarnacion and Sanchez are both out again along with Hicks and Tauchman. Gleyber has turned into a far more powerful beast than anyone predicted and almost immediately (in April 2018 the consensus was he was a top 5 prospect in MLB, but would max out at 15 HRs maybe). He is 3rd in the AL currently with 38 HRs, still in his age 22 season. And Judge has woken up/got healthier, he has 12 HRs in his last 100 ABs.