265 Or Bust: Taking Aim At The Team HR Record

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
154 through 91 games breaks the SEA 1999 record for most HRs before the ASB (151) and puts NY on pace for 274 for the season.
The 1997 Mariners were at only 145 through 91 games, and had a pretty slow stretch coming up. July was a very slow month of homers for that team (1.4/game) but they heated up in August/September (1.9/game). The season overall was 1.63/game (the Yankees are currently at 1.69/game).

Edit: And the 1999 Mariners were at 155 through 91 games, to add some context to Jon's comment. They were only at 87 games for the ASB.

Edit2: Not a comprehensive list of teams with more HR in first 91 games:
  1. 2000 STL 157 (Finished with 235)
  2. 2005 TEX 156 (Finished with 260)
  3. 1999 SEA 155 (Finished with 244)
 
Last edited:

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
Falling off the pace. 175 through 110 games is a 258 pace. The 2017 Yankees had 159, the 1997 Mariners had 167.

Some historicals through 100 games (not comprehensive):
  1. 2005 TEX 189
  2. 2017 HOU 182
  3. 2000 STL 181
  4. 1996 OAK 181
  5. 2000 TOR 180
  6. 1999 SEA 178
  7. 2018 NYY 175
  8. 2010 TOR 175
  9. 1964 MIN (!!!) 172
  10. 2000 LAA 172
  11. 2009 TEX 171
  12. 2004 NYY 170
  13. 2012 NYY 170
  14. 1996 SEA 170
  15. 2017 TEX 169
  16. 1997 SEA 167
  17. 2002 NYY 166
  18. 2004 CWS 166
  19. 2017 WAS 166
  20. 2000 OAK 165
  21. 2009 NYY 165
  22. 1961 NYY 165

Something I noticed compiling this list - the 2018 Yankees have way more multihomer (and therefore more zero homer) games than most of the other teams on the above list. Most multi-HR games through 110 games:
  1. 1996 SEA 21
  2. 1961 NYY 20
  3. 2018 NYY 19
  4. 2000 CLE 19
  5. 1966 ATL 19
  6. 2017 WAS 18
  7. 1977 BOS 18
  8. 1998 ATL 18

Interestingly (to me), the leaders for most 3 HR games through 110, each tied with 3 such games:
  1. 1996 SEA
  2. 1987 CLE
  3. 1956 CIN
  4. 2018 BOS
  5. 1970 ATL
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
Through 114 games:
  1. 2005 TEX 192
  2. 2018 NYY 186
  3. 2017 HOU 186
  4. 2000 TOR 186
  5. 1999 SEA 184
  6. 2000 STL 183
  7. 1996 OAK 183
  8. 2010 TOR 179
  9. 1964 MIN 178
  10. 1996 BAL 177
  11. 2000 LAA 177
  12. 2012 NYY 176
  13. 2009 NYY 175
  14. 2004 NYY 175
  15. 2017 TEX 175
  16. 1996 SEA 175
  17. 2000 OAK 174
  18. 1997 SEA 174
  19. 2009 TEX 173
  20. 2002 NYY 172
  21. .
  22. .
  23. .
  24. .
  25. 2017 NYY 163
The top 6 teams (above 180, excluding the current year's Yankees) hit between 52 and 68 homers the rest of the way, between 28.0% and 35.4% of their previous total. If they finish like those teams, they'd be somewhere between 238 and 254 homers. Obviously, most of these teams weren't projected to hit 265 homers before the season started, and regressed.

The 1997 Mariners exploded for 90 more homers, or 51.7% of their previous total.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
11 straight games at home during a hot and humid August, all against sub .500 teams, should help too.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
4 today puts them at 201 through 123 games, on pace for 264.7 for the year.
 

hbk72777

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
1,940
They've really ramped it up the last 2 weeks

They also have a shot at tying the record for most player with 10 or more HR. They have 9 now with Bird's, Romine needs 2, Walker needs 3.

They could've broken it, but they traded Austin, who had 8
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
202 HR through 124 games, 263.9 pace.

Most through 124 games:
  1. 2005 TEX 205
  2. 2018 NYY 202
  3. 2000 TOR 200
  4. 1996 OAK 200
  5. 1996 BAL 198
  6. 2017 HOU 195
  7. 2017 TEX 195
  8. 1999 SEA 195
  9. 2000 ANA 194
  10. 2016 BAL 194
  11. 2012 NYY 193
  12. 2000 HOU 192
  13. 2009 NYY 191
  14. 1997 SEA 190
  15. ...
  16. 2017 NYY 181
It's really crazy what the Mariners did in those last 38 games - 74 homers! An improvement of .4 HR/game over the first 124 games of their season. 22 Home games vs 16 away games (the Kingdome was above-average for HR). They had 2 games in Colorado and 2 games in TEX, but also 2 games in LAD and 4 in OAK.

Maybe September callups?

Teams with the most HR in games 125 through 162:
  1. 1997 SEA 74
  2. 2005 CLE 67
  3. 2010 TOR 67
  4. 1997 COL 67
  5. 2011 TEX 66
  6. 2015 TOR 65
  7. 2017 OAK 65
  8. 1998 TOR 65
  9. 1999 CIN 63
  10. 2012 BAL 63
  11. 2015 HOU 62
  12. 2001 TEX 62
  13. 2002 CHW 62
  14. ...
  15. 2017 NYY 60
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
2 homerless games means they're caught by the 1996 A's and passed by the 2000 Jays, while the 2005 Rangers pull one more ahead and the 1997 Mariners hit 4 homers to pull to 8 back.

Edit: And on pace for 260 now
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
211 through 130, on pace for 263.

Most through 130 games:
  1. 2000 TOR 214
  2. 2005 TEX 211
  3. 2018 NYY 211
  4. 1996 OAK 207
  5. 2016 BAL 204
  6. 2017 HOU 203
  7. 1996 BAL 203
  8. 1997 SEA 202 - They'll hit 4 HR in game 131 and 8 over 131-135 while losing the series 2-1 to the Red Sox (L 9-8, W 8-2, L 9-5)
  9. 2004 NYY 202
  10. 2009 NYY 201
  11. 2017 TEX 201
  12. 1999 SEA 201
  13. 2000 HOU 199
  14. 2012 NYY 199
  15. 2000 ANA 199
  16. ...
  17. 2017 NYY 187
  18. ...
  19. 2018 LAD 182 (131 G)
  20. 2018 OAK 181 (131 G)
  21. 2018 CLE 179
  22. 2018 TOR 177

They need 54 over 32, a 4% increase in HR rate per game. Most from games 131-163(just in case):
  1. 1997 SEA 62 (15 for Griffey)
  2. 2010 TOR 60 (12 for Bautista)
  3. 1997 COL 58 (12 for Walker)
  4. 1999 CIN 57 (16 for Greg Vaughn)
  5. 2011 TEX 57 (12 for Beltre)
  6. 2015 HOU 56
  7. 2017 ARI 55 (18 for JD Martinez)
  8. 2012 WSN 54
  9. 2005 CLE 54
  10. 1996 BAL 54 (12 for Brady Anderson)
  11. 2017 NYY 54 (15 for Judge)
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
I'm seeing 225 over 138 games, a 264 pace.

Most over 138 games:
  1. 2005 TEX 228
  2. 2018 NYY 225
  3. 2000 TOR 221
  4. 1996 BAL 221
  5. 1997 SEA 218 - caught up to NYY by 2 over the last 8 games. They'll hit 4 HR each in games 140 & 141 in slugfests in the Metrodome.
  6. 2016 BAL 218
  7. 1996 OAK 218
  8. 2017 TEX 217
  9. 2010 TOR 215
  10. 2009 NYY 214
  11. 1999 SEA 213
  12. 2017 BAL 212
  13. 2000 ANA 212
  14. 1996 SEA 212
  15. 2017 HOU 211
  16. 2001 TEX 211
  17. ...
  18. 2017 NYY 198
  19. ...
  20. 2018 LAD 192
  21. 2018 OAK 191 (139 G)
So they need 40 over 24 games, a 2% increase over the current rate. Most from games 139-163 - I'm only listing the top few, because lots of teams have achieved 40 in this stretch.

  1. 1997 SEA 46
  2. 2011 TEX 46
  3. 1998 STL 45
  4. 1998 TOR 44
  5. 2007 MIL 44
  6. 2017 NYY 43
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
Fun fact - it wasn't until game 158 that the 2005 Rangers fell into a tie with the 1997 Mariners pace, and game 160 where they fell behind for good. Those Rangers hit only 4 home runs in their last 8 games, needing just 8 to tie and 9 to beat that record.
 

terrynever

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 25, 2005
15,654
pawtucket
Yanks hit three deep flies to right in Oakland on Monday afternoon that would have been gone at home. This record, if they get it, is directly tied to their home ballpark.
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
Yanks hit three deep flies to right in Oakland on Monday afternoon that would have been gone at home. This record, if they get it, is directly tied to their home ballpark.
Sure, but the Kingdome had a big HR park factor, too. Somewhere between 105% and 109%, depending on calculation method. Yankee Stadium is higher (somewhere between 112% and 128%, depending on method), but any record setting performance is likely to have most factors in its favor.
 

terrynever

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 25, 2005
15,654
pawtucket
Sure, but the Kingdome had a big HR park factor, too. Somewhere between 105% and 109%, depending on calculation method. Yankee Stadium is higher (somewhere between 112% and 128%, depending on method), but any record setting performance is likely to have most factors in its favor.
If you factor in ballparks, Oakland's 192 homers so far is as impressive as the Yanks' 227, especially if you take out the 20 percent advantage New York gets for playing in a bandbox. 20 percent drops NY into the 180s.
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
228 over 140, still 264 pace.

  1. 2005 TEX 232
  2. 2018 NYY 228
  3. 1996 BAL 225
  4. 2000 TOR 222
  5. 1997 SEA 222 (4 more in game 141, then quiet until 5 in game 151 and 15 over 153-157)
  6. 2016 BAL 220
  7. 1996 OAK 219
  8. 2017 TEX 219
  9. 2010 TOR 218
  10. 2009 NYY 218
  11. 1999 SEA 217
  12. 2017 BAL 216
  13. 2000 ANA 215
  14. 2017 HOU 215
  15. 1996 SEA 214
  16. 2001 TEX 212
  17. 2000 HOU 211
  18. 2012 NYY 210
  19. 2003 ATL 209
  20. 2000 STL 208
  21. 2003 BOS 206
  22. 2004 CHW 204
  23. 2017 NYY 203
  24. 1997 COL 203
  25. 2004 CHC 200
  26. 2001 SFG 198
 

Sampo Gida

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 7, 2010
5,037
As has been touched on by some one really must adjust for league and park HR environments for these historical team HR record comparisons to be meaningful

That said its still impressive especially considering Judge, Sanchez and Bird have underperformed due to injury or performance setbacks. I thought 300 was a real possibility to start the season
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
As has been touched on by some one really must adjust for league and park HR environments for these historical team HR record comparisons to be meaningful

That said its still impressive especially considering Judge, Sanchez and Bird have underperformed due to injury or performance setbacks. I thought 300 was a real possibility to start the season
On one hand, records aren't adjusted, they are nominal numbers - the question at the beginning of the thread was "can they break the record?" not "will they have the best home run hitting performance relative to their peers?"

On the other hand, there's a reason every team above is since 1996. 17 of them from 1996-2005, 6 of them from 2016-2018, 3 in Camden, 4 in Yankee Stadium, 3 in the Kingdome, 3 in Arlington.

I imagine there's a way to look up context neutralized HR totals by team.... but what's the point?
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
228 over 140, still 264 pace.

  1. 2005 TEX 232
  2. 2018 NYY 228
  3. 1996 BAL 225
  4. 2000 TOR 222
  5. 1997 SEA 222 (4 more in game 141, then quiet until 5 in game 151 and 15 over 153-157)
  6. 2016 BAL 220
  7. 1996 OAK 219
  8. 2017 TEX 219
  9. 2010 TOR 218
  10. 2009 NYY 218
  11. 1999 SEA 217
  12. 2017 BAL 216
  13. 2000 ANA 215
  14. 2017 HOU 215
  15. 1996 SEA 214
  16. 2001 TEX 212
  17. 2000 HOU 211
  18. 2012 NYY 210
  19. 2003 ATL 209
  20. 2000 STL 208
  21. 2003 BOS 206
  22. 2004 CHW 204
  23. 2017 NYY 203
  24. 1997 COL 203
  25. 2004 CHC 200
  26. 2001 SFG 198
Slipping. 234 over 146 is a 260 pace. They need 31 over 16, a 21% increase in their season-to-date pace.

Thru 146 games:
  1. 2005 TEX 245
  2. 2018 NYY 234
  3. 1996 BAL 233
  4. 1997 SEA 232
  5. 2016 BAL 232
  6. 2000 TOR 227
  7. 2010 TOR 227
  8. 2000 HOU 227
  9. 1999 SEA 226
  10. 1996 OAK 225
  11. 2001 TEX 225
  12. 2017 TEX 222
  13. 2009 NYY 222
  14. 1996 SEA 222
  15. 2017 BAL 220
  16. 2004 CHC 219
  17. 2012 NYY 218
  18. 2000 ANA 217
  19. 2017 HOU 217
  20. 1997 COL 216
  21. 2003 BOS 216
  22. 2003 ATL 216
  23. 2000 STL 215
  24. 2017 NYY 212
  25. 2001 SFG 210
  26. 2004 CHW 209
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
Slipping. 234 over 146 is a 260 pace. They need 31 over 16, a 21% increase in their season-to-date pace.

Thru 146 games:
  1. 2005 TEX 245
  2. 2018 NYY 234
  3. 1996 BAL 233
  4. 1997 SEA 232
  5. 2016 BAL 232
  6. 2000 TOR 227
  7. 2010 TOR 227
  8. 2000 HOU 227
  9. 1999 SEA 226
  10. 1996 OAK 225
  11. 2001 TEX 225
  12. 2017 TEX 222
  13. 2009 NYY 222
  14. 1996 SEA 222
  15. 2017 BAL 220
  16. 2004 CHC 219
  17. 2012 NYY 218
  18. 2000 ANA 217
  19. 2017 HOU 217
  20. 1997 COL 216
  21. 2003 BOS 216
  22. 2003 ATL 216
  23. 2000 STL 215
  24. 2017 NYY 212
  25. 2001 SFG 210
  26. 2004 CHW 209
Good weekend (7 HR in 3 games) putting them at 241, a 262 pace. Need 24 over the final 13, a 14% increase over the season-to-date pace.

Through 149 games:
  1. 2005 TEX 247 (5 HR in game 150, then only 8 HR in remaining 12 games)
  2. 2018 NYY 241
  3. 1996 BAL 238
  4. 1997 SEA 236 (5 HR in game 151, 15 from 153-157)
  5. 2016 BAL 236 (5 HR in game 150)
  6. 2000 TOR 232
  7. 2000 HOU 232
  8. 2001 TEX 231
  9. 1996 OAK 229
  10. 2010 TOR 229 (7 over games 153/154, 9 over games 158/159)
  11. 1999 SEA 229
  12. 2009 NYY 226
  13. ...
  14. 2012 NYY 220
  15. ...
  16. 2017 NYY 218
  17. ...
  18. 2018 LAD 212 (150 games)
The Yankees spend 6 games at home in a good HR environment and 7 games on the road in poor ones (TB & BOS). They have 10 games left against good HR suppressing pitching staffs (TB & BOS) and 3 games left against the worst HR pitching team (BAL). All of this adds up to an uphill battle to increase their HR pace these last two weeks. The only saving grace is the return of Aaron Judge, if he has his power.

In games started by Judge, the Yankees have averaged 1.66 HR, which is still 11% below the needed pace (1.85), but closer than the rest of their games (1.54).
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
Through 151:
  1. 2005 TEX 252
  2. 2018 NYY 245
  3. 1996 BAL 243
  4. 1997 SEA 242
  5. 2016 BAL 238
Only 4 more home games, and 7 on the road in poor HR parks against good HR pitching staffs (although who know who is pitching that last weekend, there are various possibilities).
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
At 251 now, halfway through today. They are 6th alltime currently, here are the five teams ahead:

1997 Mariners 264
2005 Rangers 260
1996 Orioles 257
2010 Blue Jays 257
2016 Orioles 253
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
At 251 now, halfway through today. They are 6th alltime currently, here are the five teams ahead:

1997 Mariners 264
2005 Rangers 260
1996 Orioles 257
2010 Blue Jays 257
2016 Orioles 253
In a rush? :)

2 yesterday and 2 today means they need 14 in the next 8 (plus a few innings) - and their best opportunities are going past them are the next 1.5 games.
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
0 yesterday leaves them at 251 over 155, a 262 pace. All remaining games are on the road against good HR suppressing pitching staffs (but who knows who's pitching in meaningless games at this point). They need 14 over 7, a 24% increase over their season-to-date pace.

Probably Opposing Pitchers:
  1. Diego Castillo (opener) 0.9 HR/9 this year/career. Followed by Yarbrough? 1.2 HR/9 this year/career
  2. TBA (@TB) - Chirinos? 0.7 HR/9 this year/career
  3. TBA (@TB) - Beeks? 0.9 HR/9 this year, 1.0 career
  4. TBA (@TB) - Glasnow? 1.1 HR/9 this year, 1.3 career
  5. TBA (@BOS) - Porcello's turn? 1.3 HR/9 this year, 1.1 career
  6. TBA (@BOS) - Velazquez's turn? 0.8 HR/9 this year, 0.9 career
  7. TBA (@BOS) - Eovaldi's turn? 1.2 HR/9 this year, 0.9 career

Through 155:
  1. 2005 TEX 257
  2. 2018 NYY 251
  3. 1997 SEA 251
  4. 1996 BAL 246
  5. 2016 BAL 244
Total:
  1. 1997 SEA 264
  2. 2005 TEX 260
  3. 1996 BAL 257 (in 163)
  4. 2010 TOR 257
  5. 2016 BAL 253
  6. 2018 NYY 251
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
1 yesterday, 252 over 156, 262 pace. They need 13 over 6, a 34% increase over the season-to-date pace.

Through 156:
  1. 2005 TEX 258
  2. 1997 SEA 254
  3. 2018 NYY 252
  4. 1996 BAL 246
  5. 2016 BAL 245
Total:
  1. 1997 SEA 264
  2. 2005 TEX 260
  3. 1996 BAL 257 (in 163)
  4. 2010 TOR 257
  5. 2016 BAL 253
  6. 2018 NYY 252
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
Need 9 to tie, 10 to break over 5 games.

Through 157:
  1. 2005 TEX 258
  2. 1997 SEA 257
  3. 2018 NYY 255
  4. 1996 BAL 247
  5. 2016 BAL 240
Total:
  1. 1997 SEA 264
  2. 2005 TEX 260
  3. 1996 BAL 257 (in 163)
  4. 2010 TOR 257
  5. 2018 NYY 255
I have the game logs for the top 25 HR teams of all time - the most any of them did in their last 5 games was 13, by the 2010 Blue Jays. 5 out of the 25 hit 10 or more, 2 hit 9, 18 hit fewer than 9.
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,093
Charleston, SC
1 more last night - 8 to tie, 9 to break the record over 4 games.

Through 158:
  1. 2005 TEX 258
  2. 1997 SEA 258
  3. 2018 NYY 256
  4. 1996 BAL 249
  5. 2016 BAL 247
  6. 2010 TOR 247
Total:
  1. 1997 SEA 264
  2. 2005 TEX 260
  3. 1996 BAL 257 (in 163)
  4. 2010 TOR 257
  5. 2018 NYY 256
Of those 25 top HR teams, In their last 4 games, 3 had 9 or more, 2 had 8 and 20 had fewer than 8.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
They're just trying to not set it so high so they can break it again next year.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
They are asking guys after the game if they are aware of this record, which I haven't heard before. Both Hicks and Judge were well aware, tomorrow's lineup will be I think close to tonight's, most of these guys need ABs and they should start whoever they would if they see Eovaldi in the ALDS. He has toyed with them twice now, everyone could use the extra looks at him. Sunday more guys will sit, but they do want this record and 100 wins and there are two days off before the coin flip game.