'24-'25 Bruins Regular Season
- Thread starter cshea
- Start date
Hence my qualifying second statement. I agree that we need a reputable source to confirm
Rich Keefe reporting that Monty is out. No idea who this guy is or how credible his sources are.
https://x.com/Keefe21/status/1858944523767816315
Rich Keefe
@Keefe21
Scoops: Jim Montgomery out, Joe Sacco to take over.
https://x.com/Keefe21/status/1858944523767816315
Rich Keefe
@Keefe21
Scoops: Jim Montgomery out, Joe Sacco to take over.
Sacco's first practice. Mostly sticking with the same forwards, little shakeup on D.
Geekie - Zacha - Pastrnak
Marchand - Lindholm - Brazeau
Merkulov - Coyle - Frederic
Beecher - Kastelic - Koepke
Viel, Johnson
Lohrei - McAvoy
Wotherspoon - Carlo
Zadorov - Peeke
Oesterle
Geekie - Zacha - Pastrnak
Marchand - Lindholm - Brazeau
Merkulov - Coyle - Frederic
Beecher - Kastelic - Koepke
Viel, Johnson
Lohrei - McAvoy
Wotherspoon - Carlo
Zadorov - Peeke
Oesterle
Zadorov on the 3rd pairing where he should be is nice. Him and Peeke are a good match pairing wise (Monty did try it a couple times too)
Jesus H Christ. McLaughlin up; Merkulov down,
View: https://twitter.com/NHLBruins/status/1859998017249849438
View: https://twitter.com/NHLBruins/status/1859998017249849438
Whhhhhhhhy. I was all excited to see he was put on PP1 thinking maybe Sacco will actually try young guys a give them some rope, and it’s not even like Merk played bad. WTF
God DAMNIT!!!! Why? Let's see some of the younger players get some time and develop.
Well we gotta see what McLaughlin can do, he's been hot in RI. Definitely worth yo-yoing one of your few offensive minded prospects.
Merkulov had 64% xG last night, and his linemates were significantly worse when he was on the bench. He's at 64.2% over the three games he played. Best on the team (SSS) by a wide margin. 3rd is Poitras, by the way, also in Providence.
He has 58G, 75A for 134 points in 146 games in Rhode Island over the last 2 plus seasons and they've given him a grand total of 7 NHL games. They just sent him down to get a look at Marc Mclaughlin.
He has 58G, 75A for 134 points in 146 games in Rhode Island over the last 2 plus seasons and they've given him a grand total of 7 NHL games. They just sent him down to get a look at Marc Mclaughlin.
And of the two, Merkulov has a much higher upside. I like McLaughlin, but Merkulov is the better to keep. Also, right now, it looks like McLaughlin isn't even going to be in the lineup.
So maybe if they weren't going to play Merkulov than sure, makes sense to drop him down, but then that brings back the point of why are they not giving Merkulov the chance to build.
Merkulov played 8 minutes at 5x5 and had a 64% xGF%. He was fine. Not much happened one way or the other. This is what they did to him last year. Called him up for 4 games, didn't really play him and when they did it was with the 4th line. Unsurprisingly he didn't produce so they sent him back down.
He's been basically a point per game guy in the AHL for 2+ years now. The team is starved for offense. Why not give him a real opportunity? Based on practice today, he's being replaced in the lineup by Tyler Fucking Johnson who has played 5 games, has not registered a point and is running a 33% xGF% which is lowest on the team.
What are we doing?
He's been basically a point per game guy in the AHL for 2+ years now. The team is starved for offense. Why not give him a real opportunity? Based on practice today, he's being replaced in the lineup by Tyler Fucking Johnson who has played 5 games, has not registered a point and is running a 33% xGF% which is lowest on the team.
What are we doing?
Valuing bottom 6 grinders over guys with actual skill as usual. It’s this front office’s MO. They’re definitely not going to deviate now that jobs are on the line.
I guess I don’t understand xG% enough. I looked at the Corsi/Fenwick vs offensive zone starts. He seemed underwater on both while sheltered. Koepke for reference was 93% xG.
The sample size is far too small, it's only 8 minutes. xG takes into account shot quality and basically the probability of a shot going in. Utah had more shots and attempts than Boston when Merkulov was on the ice but the Bruins had the only high danger chance so his xG was positive. But it's really miniscule. 0.33-0.22. Koepke played even less than Merkulov and the Bruins had the only scoring chance and high danger chance when he was on the ice too but the actual xG was 0.16-0.01 so while the 93% looks awesome it's really a nothing burger.
What’s a good minimum sample size on these? 200-300 minutes? Or are we talking closer to half a season or more?
There are huge variances in xG until you get like 500+ minutes honestly. But they are good for when you want to be mad about something lol
I'm not sure what the actual answer to that from a statisticians perspective but I don't think you can draw meaningful conclusions until probably 400-500 minutes range.
I think the individual game ones need to be taken with context. Like Koepke's 93% last night looks awesome until you realize he was only on the ice for 7 minutes and there was 1 chance and it was for Boston.
Also, Sacco says they're "leaning toward" Swayman tomorrow night, though he does note that the net is day-to-day at this point. I think this is the first decision point for Sacco. The Bruins need wins and Korpisalo has unquestionably been the better goalie and is coming off a shutout. He has a .928 save percentage on the year in 7 appearances since Opening Night. I thought there was a chance Korpisalo would get the net again tomorrow.
My take is they had already mapped this out and Saturday was Swayman's game. They don't want to deviate on short notice given everything else but Sacco has also communicated to both that plans beyond Saturday might be changed based on results.
View: https://twitter.com/smclaughlin9/status/1860009392814608720
My take is they had already mapped this out and Saturday was Swayman's game. They don't want to deviate on short notice given everything else but Sacco has also communicated to both that plans beyond Saturday might be changed based on results.
View: https://twitter.com/smclaughlin9/status/1860009392814608720
If you're right, then it makes some sense. And *then* if Swayman continues as he was, I hope Sacco gives a Korpisalo a few games in a row.
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If I were Sacco I would try the every other game thing that Swayman was comfortable with previously for a few weeks.
It looks to me that blue line shots from Peeke and Carlo -- the least offensive defensemen -- make it to the net more than the other D-men. I'm not as good at these kinds of details as others here, so what are the mechanics of shots getting through/not getting blocked?
Looks like “Stale Dale” Arnold is back doing Bruins games.
This season has been tough enough to watch without having to listen to this guy’s lame jokes and cliche commentary.
https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-bruins/2024/11/29/dale-arnold-bruins-nesn-interim-role-studio-show/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3P-qXPRVbBsamNZ2_fMQ_cAvd0-Carc57fmmCT3HuTjSGvZgjR6DNjc4Q_aem_u8qcY5hEnM5d-51L1IK5Ag
This season has been tough enough to watch without having to listen to this guy’s lame jokes and cliche commentary.
https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-bruins/2024/11/29/dale-arnold-bruins-nesn-interim-role-studio-show/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3P-qXPRVbBsamNZ2_fMQ_cAvd0-Carc57fmmCT3HuTjSGvZgjR6DNjc4Q_aem_u8qcY5hEnM5d-51L1IK5Ag
6 games into the Sacco era.4-2-0. The record probably lines up with the underlyings. They should've beat Vancouver but they also probably should've lost the Islanders game. The Penguins game was the only infuriating stinker.
Stingy defensively but still not generating much offensively. Cumulative 10.51 xGF at 5x5 and have allowed 9.03 against. Works out to an excellent 54% xGF% but only generating about 1.75 xGF per game.
The result of the season and Sacco era is going to come down to how many goals they can score.
Stingy defensively but still not generating much offensively. Cumulative 10.51 xGF at 5x5 and have allowed 9.03 against. Works out to an excellent 54% xGF% but only generating about 1.75 xGF per game.
The result of the season and Sacco era is going to come down to how many goals they can score.
I might be in the minority but I think Zadorov has been fine. Biggest problem is the penalties but it shouldn't be much of a surprise, he's always had penalty issues.
He's got a 55% xGF% which is 2nd among regular Bruin defenseman behind Lindholm. He also has the 2nd most TOI, so he's not getting sheltered a ton. As far as the defensive end goes, which is primarily why the signed him, among regulars he basically leads or is tied/close to Lindholm in allowing the fewest shots against, scoring chances against, high danger chances against and goals against. He doesn't turn the puck over much either, there are 4 regular defenseman who turn it over more frequently (Wotherspoon, Peeke, Lindholm, Lohrei).
I think he's been as advertised.
He's got a 55% xGF% which is 2nd among regular Bruin defenseman behind Lindholm. He also has the 2nd most TOI, so he's not getting sheltered a ton. As far as the defensive end goes, which is primarily why the signed him, among regulars he basically leads or is tied/close to Lindholm in allowing the fewest shots against, scoring chances against, high danger chances against and goals against. He doesn't turn the puck over much either, there are 4 regular defenseman who turn it over more frequently (Wotherspoon, Peeke, Lindholm, Lohrei).
I think he's been as advertised.
And I'm looking at something wrong? He has the second most giveaways on the team after Pasta according to hockey reference.
That's in volume. His raw number of giveaways is 2nd on the team to Pastrnak. However, Zadorov has played the 3rd most minutes on the team. The actual rate in which he turns the puck over, 4.28 giveaways/60, is not bad. The 4 defenseman I listed give the puck away more frequently than Zadorov.
Have we seen any updates on Lindholm? His return drops Zadkrov down and that should provide a lift to the team.
Sacco said that he was still “weeks away” yesterday.
https://www.masslive.com/bruins/2024/12/bruins-coach-updates-status-of-injured-defenseman.html?outputType=amp
Weird question, but would the B's/Canadiens consider playing in Fleet/Victoire jerseys for a game as cross-promotion?
The real question is would the NHL uniform guidelines allow it. Particularly since I assume the contract with the official jersey maker, fanatics, probably requires them to wear their stuff only.
Pretty sure pwhl is not fanatics.
Another win but miserable offensive showing. 1.42 total xGF. The broadcast was harping on Sacco wanting them to shoot more, maybe it'll take time, but it's been pretty similar to the Monty games. The defense continues to be stingy and Sacco is getting saves that Monty wasn't. Don't look now but Korpisalo has a postive goals saves above expected (+1) or to please SJH +2.1 GSAA.
Think the offensive woes largely are on the dearth on the wings. Just hard to do much when your LW1 is Morgan Geekie and your RW2 is Justin Brazeau who didn't even have an NHL contract this time last year. Toss in a Pastrnak slump and decreasing confidence and it's really hard for them to A) generage quality looks and B) bury them.
Kinda big stretch they're in the midst of. Back to back against the league worst Chicago tonight. Really need 2 points, then Saturday they get Philly who is in the mix for the wild card. B's are in the playoff structure by points but outside on points percentage because they've played the most games.
Think the offensive woes largely are on the dearth on the wings. Just hard to do much when your LW1 is Morgan Geekie and your RW2 is Justin Brazeau who didn't even have an NHL contract this time last year. Toss in a Pastrnak slump and decreasing confidence and it's really hard for them to A) generage quality looks and B) bury them.
Kinda big stretch they're in the midst of. Back to back against the league worst Chicago tonight. Really need 2 points, then Saturday they get Philly who is in the mix for the wild card. B's are in the playoff structure by points but outside on points percentage because they've played the most games.
Need 2 tonight, yes. Toss up Sunday w/ Philly. Then the 5 game trip out west. If they get 6 point out of that I'd be ecstatic. 9 out of 14 points in the next 7 would be good, and probably asking a lot.
It will be worth watching the goalie rotation. Swayman has played double Korpi's minutes but has put up far worse numbers, although he has improved a little since Sacco took over. I would hope they split games 50/50 for a while.
Part of it is they are playing shutdown defense at the moment. They are not giving anything up, they are allowing the 3rd fewest expected goals against in the league. They weren't horrible defensively under Monty but it's been clear that Sacco's directing a lot of attention on the defensive end.
thanks. And yeah, I'd suggest that's more than just a 'little improvement,' but SSS applies of course
Which is what Monty should have been doing instead of focusing solely on getting the offense going. When it was clear that the offense was going to continue to struggle, the only path forward here was to double down on defense. It should have a knock-on effect to both goaltending and even the offense. If the team is giving up less goals, that will release the pressure from the offense and we should start to see some improvement there.