'24-'25 Bruins Regular Season

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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KPD, fwiw, says move #1 has to be getting McAvoy off PP#1. Both the rep and that stats says he doesn't/wont shoot. But I havent seen enough of the games to know if he's been bad overall on the PP.

Seems to me that Lohrei is the natural replacement, but whaddoIknow.
I would agree overall with that. He’s not a power play QB. At $9.5 million AAV though he’s expected to be.
 

Diamond Don Aase

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Per Conor Ryan, the Bruins have assigned Matt Poitras to Providence.

Monty may have his tactical deficiencies and his motivational techniques might be dubious, but at least we have his ability to develop young players to fall back on.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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Highest xGF% on the team. Can’t have that around.
I don’t what they’re trying to accomplish here, but Poitras definitely isn’t the problem.

And they’re allegedly bringing Max Jones up for “more physically”. Keep fucking that chicken boys. Can’t admit that you acquired a bunch of big,slow, soft as fuck stiffs Donny.
 

Cotillion

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I don’t what they’re trying to accomplish here, but Poitras definitely isn’t the problem.

And they’re allegedly bringing Max Jones up for “more physically”. Keep fucking that chicken boys. Can’t admit that you acquired a bunch of big,slow, soft as fuck stiffs Donny.
wait... it's not a paper transaction and they are really bringing Jones up? come the fuck on...
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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wait... it's not a paper transaction and they are really bringing Jones up? come the fuck on...
That’s the buzz with the beat writers. I’d say hopefully it’s not true, but at this point, let those idiots completely burn it the fuck down and get themselves fired.
 

mwonow

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I don’t what they’re trying to accomplish here, but Poitras definitely isn’t the problem.

And they’re allegedly bringing Max Jones up for “more physically”. Keep fucking that chicken boys. Can’t admit that you acquired a bunch of big,slow, soft as fuck stiffs Donny.
QFT. The bolded might as well be the 2024-2025 motto. I've been using "big but soft," but slow fits, too.

I honestly don't know what Monty sees to create the gap between 'what I ask 'em to do' and 'what they might actually be able to do.' But 0-for-period-3 is a pretty good indication that there's a mismatch here.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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QFT. The bolded might as well be the 2024-2025 motto. I've been using "big but soft," but slow fits, too.

I honestly don't know what Monty sees to create the gap between 'what I ask 'em to do' and 'what they might actually be able to do.' But 0-for-period-3 is a pretty good indication that there's a mismatch here.
I should’ve added stupid as well.
 

katnado

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Demoting one of your best play drivers for a stiff who brings absolutely nothing to the roster is definitely the way to show you know what you're doing. Why management refuses to fire a guy who should have been canned in the off-season is baffling.

There is a small part of me who hopes they just lose out horribly and they have no choice but to fire everyone. If Sweeney/Neely don't have the balls to fire Monty now then why are they still here?
 

FL4WL3SS

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Demoting one of your best play drivers for a stiff who brings absolutely nothing to the roster is definitely the way to show you know what you're doing. Why management refuses to fire a guy who should have been canned in the off-season is baffling.

There is a small part of me who hopes they just lose out horribly and they have no choice but to fire everyone. If Sweeney/Neely don't have the balls to fire Monty now then why are they still here?
It's mid-Nov so I get it, but they are still in contention and the players own a lot of the struggles. I also think Sweeney put Monty in a bad spot with the offense. I'm mostly there that Monty needs to go, but I've softened on it in the past few weeks.

I just think this is who they are on offense and with Swayman and a few other stars playing below their norm, this is what we've got.
 

katnado

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It's mid-Nov so I get it, but they are still in contention and the players own a lot of the struggles. I also think Sweeney put Monty in a bad spot with the offense. I'm mostly there that Monty needs to go, but I've softened on it in the past few weeks.

I just think this is who they are on offense and with Swayman and a few other stars playing below their norm, this is what we've got.
While I agree this is who they are on offense, lots of players are well below the norm. Players go through cold streaks sure, but when the entire team is underperforming (outside of Kasti) personally I think that's on coaching (or the coach being tuned out)

I definitely agree with you that this is on the players too for sure. I just think that they are going to quickly sink out of even borderline contention if they don't dump him soon. He's not the only problem but his style and system are a major one IMO.
 

jbupstate

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What’s the difference year over year that makes the Bruins terrible?

Debrusk, Heinen and Gryz?

McAvoy isn’t playing to his capabilities. Goaltending hasn’t won many games. Marchand is starting to show signs of improvement. Lohrei has been brutal.

Could be the coach… might just be new players getting acclimated and the horses underperforming.

Tighten up the PK and eliminate the stupid penalties. Need Swayman to get hot.
 

kenneycb

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A bunch of players on offense had career years in elevated roles (Coyle, Zacha, Geekie) plus some surprise contributions (1st half JVR, Heinen). They are now reverting back to the mean.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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And Swayman has been terrible. Not a shock given he wasn't in training camp, but if past experience from other holdout goalies is anything to go by, I would expect this season will never get on track for him.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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I also think that Montgomery’s comment the other day about “conditioning being an issue at the beginning of camp” was telling. They have a lot of guys that just got long term deals, got married, had kids, etc. A lot of comfortable employees on that room.

It shows a real lack of professionalism on the part of the core guys that they come to camp in shape. To my untrained eye, it looks like a lot of guys taking nights off.
 

cshea

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The simplest explanation is the goalies.

The skaters and 5x5 data is very similar to last year. They don't generate much offense, but they didn't last year (2.61 xGF/60 down to 2.35 this year). It's not good but it's also not crazy down from last year. They aren't great defensively but they aren't a disaster either and are slightly better than a year ago (2.43 xGA/60 this year from 2.61 last year). That's a little north of league average. Again, it's not good but is very similar to how they played last year. It probably makes sense based on what they did in the offseason. Slightly improved the defense, no real offensive impact made.

The Bruins are parading to the box and struggling to kill penalties. A large part of the PK problem is the goalie can't stop a beach ball when they're short handed. Their defense is actually pretty good, they allow the 7th fewest xGA/60 on the penalty kill but that's resulted in the 7th highest actual goals against. Swayman has faced 17 high danger shots on the PP and 7 of them have ended up in the back of the net for a robust .588 high danger save percentage. It's not like the Bruins are hemoraging high danger chances either, they're allowing the 11th fewest. It's a bad combo when you aren't very good at 5x5 and also the goalies are not very good and can't bail you out frequently.

They started last year 14-1-3 through the first 18 games. They then finished the year 33-19-12 and were 6-7 in the playoffs. Add in 7-7-2 through 16 games this year and the sample is quite large that they're basically a .500 points percentage team. So, I don't think anyhthing has changed or there's effort or tuning out the coach or any of that. This is who they are.

I'm not sure what my next move would be. I still the coach because that's the easiest button to push and I do believe in some of the talent but also this has gone on so long that this is kind of what they are and I'm not sure a new voice will squeeze anything more out of them.
 

FL4WL3SS

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I also think that Montgomery’s comment the other day about “conditioning being an issue at the beginning of camp” was telling. They have a lot of guys that just got long term deals, got married, had kids, etc. A lot of comfortable employees on that room.

It shows a real lack of professionalism on the part of the core guys that they come to camp in shape. To my untrained eye, it looks like a lot of guys taking nights off.
I wonder if the past few years of grinding hard in the regular season to finish first only to lose in the postseason has played a role in the mindset of the room. As in, what's the point of going that hard every night, Florida keeps sneaking into the playoffs and then turning it on.

Just spit balling here, but I agree the effort isn't there this season.
 

FL4WL3SS

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The simplest explanation is the goalies.

The skaters and 5x5 data is very similar to last year. They don't generate much offense, but they didn't last year (2.61 xGF/60 down to 2.35 this year). It's not good but it's also not crazy down from last year. They aren't great defensively but they aren't a disaster either and are slightly better than a year ago (2.43 xGA/60 this year from 2.61 last year). That's a little north of league average. Again, it's not good but is very similar to how they played last year. It probably makes sense based on what they did in the offseason. Slightly improved the defense, no real offensive impact made.

The Bruins are parading to the box and struggling to kill penalties. A large part of the PK problem is the goalie can't stop a beach ball when they're short handed. Their defense is actually pretty good, they allow the 7th fewest xGA/60 on the penalty kill but that's resulted in the 7th highest actual goals against. Swayman has faced 17 high danger shots on the PP and 7 of them have ended up in the back of the net for a robust .588 high danger save percentage. It's not like the Bruins are hemoraging high danger chances either, they're allowing the 11th fewest. It's a bad combo when you aren't very good at 5x5 and also the goalies are not very good and can't bail you out frequently.

They started last year 14-1-3 through the first 18 games. They then finished the year 33-19-12 and were 6-7 in the playoffs. Add in 7-7-2 through 16 games this year and the sample is quite large that they're basically a .500 points percentage team. So, I don't think anyhthing has changed or there's effort or tuning out the coach or any of that. This is who they are.

I'm not sure what my next move would be. I still the coach because that's the easiest button to push and I do believe in some of the talent but also this has gone on so long that this is kind of what they are and I'm not sure a new voice will squeeze anything more out of them.
Great analysis and passes the eye test too.
 

Gammon_Clark

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I wonder if the past few years of grinding hard in the regular season to finish first only to lose in the postseason has played a role in the mindset of the room. As in, what's the point of going that hard every night, Florida keeps sneaking into the playoffs and then turning it on.

Just spit balling here, but I agree the effort isn't there this season.
Bingo.

I posted the same thing a couple weeks ago, and I believe it to be true.

This Bruins team has had a wild ride from the record-breaking season, to last year’s surprise, with huge disappointments in both post seasons. Then they get waxed twice by FL to start the season.

I honestly think they’re having trouble getting off the mat, and getting psyched up to grind.
 

tims4wins

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Bingo.

I posted the same thing a couple weeks ago, and I believe it to be true.

This Bruins team has had a wild ride from the record-breaking season, to last year’s surprise, with huge disappointments in both post seasons. Then they get waxed twice by FL to start the season.

I honestly think they’re having trouble getting off the mat, and getting psyched up to grind.
Nitpick that last year was a huge disappointment in the playoffs, they won a round and did about as well as we expected vs Florida, but I've been wondering the same overall.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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If they’re really sitting around and thinking “we can’t beat Florida anyway, what’s the fucking point?” Then their even softer than I think they are, and they just blow up the roster now.
 

cshea

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I don't think there's an effort issue. I think it's primarily a talent issue, especially at forward. There's just not much there..

Most of the veterans are struggling. Pastrnak, Zacha, Marchand and Elias Lindholm have been decent but some level below expectation. Coyle, Frederic and Geekie have flat out sucked and been non-impactful. That is 7 guys that need to be going. They can survive if 2 or 3 are off but not all 7, which is basically how it has gone for the entirety of the year. The only players they do have going are the frindge AHLers like Kastelic, Beecher, Koepke and Brazeau. Good for those guys but they have limited ceilings and as we've seen over the past few weeks the goals have dried up. You can't be relying on those guys to carry the team. They can for a game or two. Not for a month or two. If I was listing postives in the forward groups through 16 games, the ist is short and Poitras would've been near the top of the list. Probably behind Koepke, but alas he missed a back check or got rubbed off along the boards or something so he's in the AHL. I generally like to give them the benefit of the doubt with the handling of the kids but there's very little I can point too to support sending Poitras down.

Defensively they have to figure out what's up with McAvoy. Lindholm has been pretty good, 54% xG. Zadorov is 52%. McAvoy is at 47%. Can't have that from your #1 who plays 25 minutes a game. The rest are as advertised. Carlo and Wotherspoon are were offense goes to die for both teams. Lohrei is contributing zilch, 40% xG%. They need to figure out McAvoy and also do something with Lohrei, he's probably unplayable but they have no choice with Peeke's injury.

There's not much they can do from a roster perspective. At forward, Lysell is hurt. They could try Merkulov, he's got 11 points in 12 games, but where do you put him? Here you go kid, play with Tyler Johnson and Justin Brazeau. He'll think he's still in Providence. They don't really have an obvious defense call up. Maybe Jordan Oesterle since he's a 350 game NHL veteran but I'm not sure he's going to provide a spark they're looking for. Not sure I buy it but Lohrei might forrce their hand.

You could try to make a trade, but who? Geekie who has been a regular healthy scratch? Frederic who has 1 goal in 16 games? Doesn't seem like there would be much of an impact nor would they get much in return.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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You are correct in that there is really no trade available to upgrade this roster. They have no cap space, no prospects, and they should be adding picks at this point not trading them.

The only trades they should be looking to make are gauging what they can get for guys like Marchand, Coyle, Frederic, and Carlo at the deadline.

Time to bite the bullet and get some young talent in here through the draft.

Then see if they can add to the Pastrnak, Lindholm, McAvoy, Lindholm, Zadorov, Swayman core through free agency.
 

jbupstate

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Why trade Marchand? Seems to still be a player and a leader. A good guy to have in the playoff and in the locker room.

Only way the Bruins get younger through the draft is to bottom out for a top 3 pick. Team still has the ability to get in the playoffs and win a series if the top players perform to their contracts.
 

cshea

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Yeah, I'd keep Marchand around. I think his decline has begun but he's still valuable and the captain. He can stay as long as he wants. I assume he's going year-to-year after this season.

Coyle and Carlo are under contract past this year and both have trade protection. I don't think trades for them are possible.

If they get to the point where they pull the plug, Geekie and Frederic are guys they can consider trading.
 

cshea

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Big 3rd period last night to calm things down for a day at least. The stars finally did stars things:

McAvoy: 18:40 5x5 TOI: Shots 13-5 Boston, scoring chances 15-5 Boston, High Danger chances 8-3 Boston, goals 2-0 Boston xGF% 79%
Pastrnak: 17:34 5x5 TOI: Shots 13-5 Boston, scoring chances 13-0 Boston, High Danger chances 7-0 Boston, goals 2-0 Boston, xGF% 97% (!)

I know in Pastrnak's case there was some chatter that he got injured in the World Championships and that set his offseason program back and thus he hasn't been fully up to speed this year. Hopefully the tide is turning. With McAvoy, there's been some chatter that he is struggling to adjust to playing with Zadorov who roams a bit. Maybe that smooths out as we go and McAvoy can settle in.

On the negative side, they lit $775,000 on fire with Tyler Johnson. Just does nothing. I guess "better than Max Jones" is the bar we're trying to clear here which, sure - barely, but I'd still contend that Poitras was better than both Johnson and I'm not sure they're maximizing the roster.

Also, Hampus Lindholm has probably been their best and most consistent player this season and he went down after blocking a shot. Didn't see any updates but since they aren't carrying extra skaters they'll likely be getting a Providence D on a plane to Dallas today. My guess is Mitchell, maybe Oesterle. Oesterle is more experienced in the NHL but Mitchell has more reps with the Bruins, played a bit with the team last year and technically made the team out of training camp.
 

joe dokes

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I only caught part of the game last night (the good part) on the radio. At some point before they scored, I thought I heard that Pastrnak had something like 9 SG and all the other forwards combined had 5. Could that be right?
 

cshea

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That's a huge blow. Lindholm has been excellent.

Oesterle is a JAG 6th/7th defenseman. Has played 350 NHL games between Edmonton, Chicago, Arizona, Detroit and Calgary. They don't really have much else in Providence. Mitchell was a possibility but handedness might've played a role (Oesterle is a lefty; Mitchell is a righty). Beyond him the Providence depth chart is Miike Callahan who hasn't played in the NHL but has spent the past 2+ years in Providence and the kids who are far too green (Ryan Mast, Jackson Edward, Drew Bavaro, Frederic Brunet).
 

The Mort Report

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On the topic of the D, last week they signed Loke Johansson to an ELC. Never heard of him, so figured he was like 23 and close to being an option for the Bs. Nope, he was our 6th round pick this summer and is only 18, albeit intriguing. Obviously not an option yet, but can anyone explain the reasoning to do this so early and start his clock? From what I understand as long as he doesn’t play 10 games in either of the next 2 years with the big club the 3 year deal won’t kick in, but it does regardless where he is in year 3. If he was a top pick on the fast track sure, but he’s a 6th rounder and from what I’ve read he’s a project, but there is 2nd pairing upside. Why do this now when he’s so young and new to the org?
 

Cotillion

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On the topic of the D, last week they signed Loke Johansson to an ELC. Never heard of him, so figured he was like 23 and close to being an option for the Bs. Nope, he was our 6th round pick this summer and is only 18, albeit intriguing. Obviously not an option yet, but can anyone explain the reasoning to do this so early and start his clock? From what I understand as long as he doesn’t play 10 games in either of the next 2 years with the big club the 3 year deal won’t kick in, but it does regardless where he is in year 3. If he was a top pick on the fast track sure, but he’s a 6th rounder and from what I’ve read he’s a project, but there is 2nd pairing upside. Why do this now when he’s so young and new to the org?
Some rights issue is usually the reason for something like this... but no idea.
 

FL4WL3SS

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Dallas will be a good test tonight of where this team is. If they can't compete in this game, then they really have no chance this year. It's a good team with some flaws, can't struggle with these type of teams.
 

cshea

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On the topic of the D, last week they signed Loke Johansson to an ELC. Never heard of him, so figured he was like 23 and close to being an option for the Bs. Nope, he was our 6th round pick this summer and is only 18, albeit intriguing. Obviously not an option yet, but can anyone explain the reasoning to do this so early and start his clock? From what I understand as long as he doesn’t play 10 games in either of the next 2 years with the big club the 3 year deal won’t kick in, but it does regardless where he is in year 3. If he was a top pick on the fast track sure, but he’s a 6th rounder and from what I’ve read he’s a project, but there is 2nd pairing upside. Why do this now when he’s so young and new to the org?
Draft rights are convulted in the NHL. The length of time the team holds draft rights over a player varies based on where the player is playing and how old they are. European players are different than NCAA players who are different than CHL players. It's a mess. Johnnson is a European player with CHL rights. For players in the CHL, teams essentially hold their draft rights through the end of their CHL eligibility, so 2-years. If the NHL team doesn't sign the player they go back into the draft. So teams don't have a ton of runway with CHL players to make a determination. An example of this is goalie Reid Dyck who the Bruins drafted in the 6th round in 2022 but they didn't sign before the August deadline so he's no longer their property and he'll be in this years draft.

The age the player signs the contract impacts a few things. First is the length of the ELC. The amount of years of an ELC is 1-3 and the length is not negotiable, it is determined by how old the player is. Mason Lohrei was 22 when he signed his ELC and thus it was only a 2-year ELC and he'll be an RFA after this season. The second piece is the ELC slide. Depending upon when the players signs their ELC, the contract years "slide" if the player doesn't play in 10 NHL games.

Long story short, signing early is common for CHL prospects. If you look at most of the players they have drafted from those leagues they sign their ELC well before the players actually turn pro. For higher picked players it's usually either right after dev camp or the players traning campe. For the lower picks, it's usually after their d+1 season. They don't usually let them play their final CHL season without an ELC unless they're ready to move on. By signing them younger the team gets the 2-slide years and extra year or years on the ELC. The player gets the benefit of a pro contract ready for them when they are finished in the CHL. It doesn't happen for NCAA players because obviously signing a professional contract would make them ineligible to play in the NCAA.
 

The Mort Report

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Draft rights are convulted in the NHL. The length of time the team holds draft rights over a player varies based on where the player is playing and how old they are. European players are different than NCAA players who are different than CHL players. It's a mess. Johnnson is a European player with CHL rights. For players in the CHL, teams essentially hold their draft rights through the end of their CHL eligibility, so 2-years. If the NHL team doesn't sign the player they go back into the draft. So teams don't have a ton of runway with CHL players to make a determination. An example of this is goalie Reid Dyck who the Bruins drafted in the 6th round in 2022 but they didn't sign before the August deadline so he's no longer their property and he'll be in this years draft.

The age the player signs the contract impacts a few things. First is the length of the ELC. The amount of years of an ELC is 1-3 and the length is not negotiable, it is determined by how old the player is. Mason Lohrei was 22 when he signed his ELC and thus it was only a 2-year ELC and he'll be an RFA after this season. The second piece is the ELC slide. Depending upon when the players signs their ELC, the contract years "slide" if the player doesn't play in 10 NHL games.

Long story short, signing early is common for CHL prospects. If you look at most of the players they have drafted from those leagues they sign their ELC well before the players actually turn pro. For higher picked players it's usually either right after dev camp or the players traning campe. For the lower picks, it's usually after their d+1 season. They don't usually let them play their final CHL season without an ELC unless they're ready to move on. By signing them younger the team gets the 2-slide years and extra year or years on the ELC. The player gets the benefit of a pro contract ready for them when they are finished in the CHL. It doesn't happen for NCAA players because obviously signing a professional contract would make them ineligible to play in the NCAA.
Really appreciate your response. I knew it was complicated, but holy hell is it way more than I thought. For how into hockey I am, I never really paid attention to this stuff, and only really started to last year with Poitras. I guess that's what comes with so many random leagues out there.
 

j44thor

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Dallas will be a good test tonight of where this team is. If they can't compete in this game, then they really have no chance this year. It's a good team with some flaws, can't struggle with these type of teams.
I think DAL is the team that shouldn't be struggling with the B's at home. Vegas agrees as they are -170 ML, not a prohibitive favorite but a decent favorite.
 

cshea

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Really appreciate your response. I knew it was complicated, but holy hell is it way more than I thought. For how into hockey I am, I never really paid attention to this stuff, and only really started to last year with Poitras. I guess that's what comes with so many random leagues out there.
Yeah with so many development paths it's tough to keep track of. Then it's also complicated in terms of who can play in the AHL and when. It's not a clean system. I don't know the details of it but there was some sort of CHL/NCAA agreement recently that NHL teams are starting to digest and figure out the implications. I know one benefit is NCAA draft-owned players can now attend NHL traning camp so long as they are not paid.

To be honest I think the 2-year draft rights has impacted their draft strategy. They generally don't pick a lot of players out of the CHL. Gives them a little more time to evaluate and get a feel for the player and their development. They took 6 CHL players in the first 2 rounds in Sweeney's first two drafts. Since then they've only spent one 1st or 2nd round pick on a CHL player (Poitras). They seem to prefer USHL/NCAA players where they get 3-5 years to watch before they have to make a decision on signing. It seems to have paid off.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I think DAL is the team that shouldn't be struggling with the B's at home. Vegas agrees as they are -170 ML, not a prohibitive favorite but a decent favorite.
Well you were 100% right. Bruins got screwed on a couple of calls but overall it was another disaster of a game.

I have to think Monty doesn't survive the weekend.
 

cshea

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Last night was almost entirely on Swayman. They were playing reasonably well, couldn't score which is normal, but Swayman couldn't stop a beach ball and then they got deflated once the 3rd and 4th ones went in.

Turns out training camp might be important?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Last night was almost entirely on Swayman. They were playing reasonably well, couldn't score which is normal, but Swayman couldn't stop a beach ball and then they got deflated once the 3rd and 4th ones went in.

Turns out training camp might be important?
For the thousandth time I'll say it: this is Byron Dafoe 1999/2000 all over again. Went from .926/2.00/10 shutouts/33 GSAA to .889/2.97/3 shutouts/-15.5 GSAA because he held out during training camp.

Swayman getting paid and then IMMEDIATELY stinking up the joint, combined with a massive downgrade from Ullmark to Korpisalo as the other goalie, means this team is fucked this year. I could not be more disgusted with Swayman and his camp.
 

BaseballJones

slappy happy
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
26,804
Swayman currently is the 47th best goaltender in the NHL at stopping pucks, with a 3.35 GAA, and is the 42nd best with an .888 save percentage. He's currently an absolute sieve.