45% chance of #4 falling to #5, and 21% chance of falling to #6:
https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds
'24-'25 Bruins Regular Season
- Thread starter cshea
- Start date
https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds
Thanks. That blows. I didn’t realize it was more likely that they move down.
Battle for the #4 pick in the draft (pre-lottery) as of Apr13:
4. BOS 75 pts 1 G (NJ)
5. PHI 76 pts, 2 G (CLB, BUF)
6. SEA 76 pts, 1 G (LA)
BOS cannot fall below the #6 slot (pre-lottery).
BOS loses a tiebreaker with PHI and wins a tiebreaker with SEA.
No games on Mon & Wed for BOS/PHI/SEA
Tue games: NJ@BOS, CLB@PHI, LA@SEA
Thu game: PHI@BUF
4. BOS 75 pts 1 G (NJ)
5. PHI 76 pts, 2 G (CLB, BUF)
6. SEA 76 pts, 1 G (LA)
BOS cannot fall below the #6 slot (pre-lottery).
BOS loses a tiebreaker with PHI and wins a tiebreaker with SEA.
No games on Mon & Wed for BOS/PHI/SEA
Tue games: NJ@BOS, CLB@PHI, LA@SEA
Thu game: PHI@BUF
New Jersey cannot move up or down and this is game 2 of a 3 games in 4 days stretch. Curious if we’ll see some rest from them tomorrow.
It is a "must lose" for the Bruins but I'm worried the Devils will look like the week 18 Bills did.
Compensation picks are for 2026 and later, so we'd make our top-6 pick this year. The Bruins can currently make any level of offer sheet this offseason. We also have TOR's 1st in 2026.
Then again, we might want our hat in the ring for the 2026 and 2027 lotteries, as there's supposed to be a guy with generational upside at the top of both of those draft classes.
But on the other hand, Pasta is arguably the best player in hockey right now and certainly one of the best 5 players on the planet. His passing game has reached a new level. Last night was a great example, not just on the scoring plays but this feed to Geekie for a wide open look, or another no-look to Lindholm with about 4 min left of the 1st period for a great chance. His body language is so deceptive and you have no idea if he's going to rip a shot or send it perfectly across the zone.
That guy is 28 years old. When you have a player like that, you've gotta think the plan is to compete next year. There's too much variance to say that we'll be right back in it next year, but I like the move to find the next Geekie with guys like Khusnutdenov and Mittelstadt. Minten looks like a great pickup. They have a lot of needs, but also a lot of flexibility.
On a macro level, we need to solidify our young NHLer talent, the gaps that emerged from constantly being buyers and picking late in the draft. An offer sheet to the right guy could really help with that so I think it should be on the table. But that talent could come in any number of ways. And maybe some of these younger guys like Minten, Lysell, Khutsy, and Poitras emerge.
I think they absolutely upgrade the top 6, one way or another. The Geekie-Lindholm-Pasta line has looked very good, so maybe you make a heavy-hitting 2nd line. Like I wonder how Zacha and Mittelstadt look with a legit power forward on the right side. One thing that is breaking my brain looking at the roster is that almost every forward can play center.
View: https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1911872541745963408
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
Sources say no changes are expected in #NHLBruins front office. Both Don Sweeney and Cam Neely have been in lockstep, hard at work on the next iteration of the club.
I admire the optimism, but this team with all the guys they traded plus McAvoy this year were in the bottom 5 offensively by expected metrics. They don't really have the cap space to add 2-3 impact forwards, nor are they available in UFA. I don't believe there is a likely path to a 95 point team next season, and even with improvement, they find themselves in the 88-92 range. Given that a couple of injuries or some poor fortune could put a team like that in the lottery and out of the playoffs, giving up a 1st round pick that has a significant chance of being top 15 for this crop of RFA would be a mistake.
Reasons for offensive optimism:
- E. Lindholm looks to be finally getting his feet under him.
- H. Lindholm will be back, who is a big driver of offense from the D
- McAvoy will be back, who is also helps drive the offense from the D
- Lysell, Minten will likely add more offensive punch than Koepke, Brown, Brazeau, Wahlstrom, Tufte or Jones added.
- Poitras should be up for good.
- A (potential) top 4 draft pick.
And they have 26 million in cap space. With some lottery luck you're adding Michael Misa or James Hagens who could probably make the team out of camp (especially Hagens). You go the offer sheet route and add someone like Knies, with all that above? And Swayman pulling his Alaskan sized head out of his ass?
It requires some squinting of the eyes, but a path is there.
I think they have a path to being competitive for a WC spot, but their real window for competing for a Cup will be 2026-2029 with this team. But yeah, nailing the top pick with someone who can develop into a legit 1C, adding a piece during FA (I know we've chatted about Marner) and getting some punch from even just one of the kids will go a long way towards making this team competitive. Then in the 2026 offseason, find another complementary winger and then you've got a few 1sts that you can use during that season to add at the deadline if needed. But so much depends on them getting a high-caliber center out of this draft. If they do that, they are right back in the mix pretty quickly.
To be the contrarian, it's a fair amount of squinting. It's baking in a lot of internal improvement, which is rarely linear.
Hampus Lindholm will be 32 and is coming off a major knee injury and multiple surgeries that limited him to 17 games played this year. I think it would be wise for them to not really expect much from him and plan accordingly. Obviously McAvoy is younger and is a much better candidate to bounce back to his career norms. I'm kinda curious if they let him go play in the WC.
Elias Lindholm is settling in a bit but I hope they learned their lesson that he shouldn't be counted on as a top 6 center. He's probably best served as a defensive 3C. This is the same guy he's always been since playing with Tkachuk and Gaudreau. He can be useful in the right role but it's not a top line scoring role.
I'm not sure Minten is going to provide much offense. Minten wasn't a prolific scorer in the OHL and he hasn't shown much offensive chops in either the AHL or NHL. It's a small sample size but he has 20 points in 36 AHL games this year, 4 of which came in the same game. Only 6 goals in the other 35 games. I don't mean this to come across as me being down on him, I think he's got an NHL future, but I think we need keep expectations in check and there's a reasonable chance his outcome is closer to John Beecher than Charlie Coyle (the comp Sweeney made when they acquired Minten). In Minten's draft +1 year he had 67 points in 57 games. Compare that to Poitras in the same league had 95 points in 63 games. Poitras has also put up 40 points in 38 AHL games this year. I think the hope at someone providing offence from the center position lies more with Poitras than Minten and Minten's upside is a 2-way 3C. We'll see what happens with Lysell but from a pure offensive production standpoint he's taken a step back this year in the AHL. Is he a 35 point in 50 games guy in the AHL like he has been in 2 of 3 years or is he the guy that was closer to a point per game last year?
Then there's also likely regression from, well, Geekie as he's the only player other than Pastrnak who has actually played well all year.
As for the cap space, I think it's a bit misleading. Sure they are projected to have $26 million to play with but that's only 10th most in the league but they have a ton of openings. Lohrei and Geekie are RFA's that will eat up some of that cap space. They only have 5 NHL forwards under contract for next year - Pastrnak, Lindholm, Kastelic, Zacha and Mittelstadt. They can fill some spots with ELC players like Poitras and Minten and some cheap RFA eligibles like Beecher and Khusnutdinov (if they're qualified). Defensively they need at least 2 players as they only have 5 signed (this includes Lohrei). I just think the number of vacancies is going to limit what they can actually spend. I don't think chasing a high ticket item like Marner is feasible. Also, while I'm a Sweeney defender, his weakest area has been spending money in free agency. The track record when he spends big in free agency isn't great from Backes to Matt Beleskey to John Moore to Nick Foligno to Elias Lindholm. The fucking Mittelstadt contract is killing me here.
The best source of internal improvement that'll impact the win/loss record is getting better goaltending. It's simplistic but it has the most impact. They had the 7th worst save percentage in hockey this year. Just raising that to average would add a bunch more wins.
I think they can contend for a WC spot if they thread the needle but there is a TON they need to do this offseason. Last time they went through this they didn't bottom out quite this bad and it took them 2 seasons to really contend again. A playoff DNQ (Chiarelli fired), a playoff DNQ but in the race in Sweeney's first year, a 6-seed first round loss to Ottawa, then back to the 100 point teams that they've had for a decade. I think that's probably a reasonable timeline for this flip.
Replying to you @TSC but cshea said much of what I was going to say. Even if everything were to break right, they still have a good chance at missing the playoffs next year and I'm not sacrificing a lottery pick for any of these RFAs. Knies would definitely not be at the top of my list as I think Peterka, Vilardi and Rossi are more interesting. There is a chance they bottom out again and seeing a top 10 pick go to another team because we have JJ Peterka at premium price would really bum me out. I get the instinct to be impatient but I think a measured approach of acquiring talent is the best way to stop it from taking 10 years instead of 3. It all comes down to what happens with this first rounder.
Gotta lose tonight. Have to.
Gotta lose tonight. Have to.
Assuming Swayman hasn't permanently turned into a pumpkin. They have no other choice but to hope this year is a horrible aberration, because the contract is immovable.
I could be sold on Rossi or Peterka over Knies. Vilardi will be 26 at the start of next season though and I think he is what he is. Knies, Rossi, and Peterka all have some potential upside over what they currently are.
But the point is - you're going to have a lottery pick this year. You've got prime years Pasta, McAvoy, and (please don't kill me SJH) Swayman. You can build for the future with this draft, and use the 2026 draft picks to augment that build AND fix some right now issues. Maybe I'm leaning too optimistic, but I don't see this team being this bad again next year and being in lottery draft pick mode. I'd rather trade a 1, 2, and 3 and get a young PROVEN player like a Knies or a Rossi now than hope Sweeney connects twice in two years.
You can wait till after this draft make any decisions. But if you get lucky this draft and get a Misa, or a Hagens - you don't want to do what Chicago is doing to Berard and surround them with trash. You use some of the draft capital you acquired and go after someone to staple to their wing and help them succeed.
I do think we differ significantly on the outlook for the team. I think its more likely than not they are in the lottery again next year. Those players are all fine players but they aren't foundational guys, which a top 10 pick has a chance to be. I just think the path from what this team is today and what they'd need to be to get out of the lottery is a seriously difficult task to pull off in one offseason. I'd rather hold the asset.
For Rossi and Peterka and Knies as RFA candidates, I don't think the Bruins can put together an offer sheet that A) the player would sign B) the other team wouldn't match and C) wasn't a gross overpayment. Even beyond the "GM's want to be nice to each other" narrative on offer sheets, I think another reason we don't them often is that the circumstances rarely make sense for the acquiring team to do it. You're have to pay well above market value on the contract plus a heap of draft picks. For a team like the Bruins it's carving out a good chunk of available cap space plus some of the surplus draft picks on a single player when they really need like 4-5 good players. Signing an offer sheet gets you 1 good player but could harm your ability to acquire the other 3-4 you need. Plus, if the offer sheet player busts, it's a crippling mistake.
I'd rather sprinkle the picks around like Washington did on some buy lows with short-ish term committments and go from there. A 3rd for Lars Eller. A 3rd and Jensen for Chychrun. A 4th for Mangiapane. A late 1st for Rasmus Sandin. A roll of the dice on PL Dubois (I wouldn't do this one though - way too risky and we already did this with Mittelstadt). Maybe you hit on one or two of them and it leads to a long term committment like Chychrun and Sandin. Otherwise stick and pick and stay patient. They'll still have a surplus of picks in 26 and 27 that they can use to continue adding to what is hopefully a team on the upswing in trajectory.
This is all moot anyways because they're going to spend all their money on Sam Bennett.
I'd rather sprinkle the picks around like Washington did on some buy lows with short-ish term committments and go from there. A 3rd for Lars Eller. A 3rd and Jensen for Chychrun. A 4th for Mangiapane. A late 1st for Rasmus Sandin. A roll of the dice on PL Dubois (I wouldn't do this one though - way too risky and we already did this with Mittelstadt). Maybe you hit on one or two of them and it leads to a long term committment like Chychrun and Sandin. Otherwise stick and pick and stay patient. They'll still have a surplus of picks in 26 and 27 that they can use to continue adding to what is hopefully a team on the upswing in trajectory.
This is all moot anyways because they're going to spend all their money on Sam Bennett.
Toronto won't be able to match an offer sheet for Knies, and sign Marner to the expected contact without having to either 1.) field a line of nothing but league minimum vets or rookies, 2.) send out some players of value.
Part of why Knies is so interesting to me is because offersheeting him (even if you don't get him) significantly impacts a direct competitor.
This is a much more succinct version of my take. This year, just going by reported stuff:
- Pasta showed up injured and didn't get to 100% until after Christmas.
- Marchand was limited and played through pain the first couple of months.
McAvoy played much of the year with some sort of wrist injury. We had just started to see excellent games from him like vs. the Panthers or the 1st USA vs. Canada when the shoulder debacle happened. - Swayman missed camp and also the team defense went to shit.
- Hampus out 65 games on a blocked shot.
- Elias missed camp with some sort of injury.
The consensus on this team after '23 was that the unmovable core was too good to truly bottom out. And then the fear was that we'd be stuck in a purgatory of 1st and 2nd round exits, good but never great with nothing in the pipeline. Turns out a bunch of those guys getting injured lowers the floor. I just don't see that happening to this extent next year. And the outlook for '27+ is much improved.
But I don't think @burstnbloom and @cshea are crazy for taking the under. It's been a rough year for optimists.
I don't think Toronto is in too bad a shape cap wise. Their top 6 defenseman are locked in for the next 3 years. Both goalies are signed through next season. Nylander and Matthews are signed long term. They have all the depth guys under contract with Jarnkrok, Kampf, Domi, Laughton, McCann plus Nick Robertson who should a cheap RFA sign. I don't really see a ton of needs they need money for other than signing their own guys or replacing them. Adding it all together to ice a team in October they needs to fill 4 forward spots and a 7th D. 3 of the 4 forwards are their own.
They have $30.6 million in cap space with Marner, Tavares and Knies as their significant pending UFA/RFA's. Matthews is at $13.25 AAV and I think that is the ceiling for Marner. Using Pasta's deal as a template for a top 5 pending UFA winger, Pasta got $11.25 million against an $83.5 million cap, 13.4%. Against the $95.5 million, 13.4% is roughly $12.8 million. Add in a little Toronto tax and I think Marner is probably at $13 million or thereabouts. I think Toronto holds the line at Matthews and won't extend beyond it. Rantanen just got $12 million AAV with Dallas so I think $12-$13 million is probably the ball park if Marner is staying in Toronto. UFA becomes a different story if he gets there and leaves but that's moot for offer sheeting Knies since obviously Toronto would suddenly have much more cap space.
So if it's $13 million for Marner, that leaves $17.6 million for Tavares and Knies plus one or two depth players. Tavares is on the decline but having a nice year. They have some flexibility with him too since he'll be 35 in September and thus eligible for bonuses to keep the cap hit down. Stamkos was a year younger than Tavares but got $8 million AAV from Nashville. If that's the ballpark, $8.5 AAV million for Tavares adjusting for the higher cap. That leaves them $9.1 million for Knies and another depth guy or two, and that's assuming Tavares isn't using bonues to lower the cap it.
That leaves us with what we think Knies' market value is? As of this moment he is 22 years old with 159 games of NHL experience, 44 goals 47 assists for 91 points. 0.57 points per game. Dylan Guenther is a year younger and had 24 goals, 26 assists in 78 games (0.64 points per game) when he signed a $7.1 AAV extension with Utah. Quinton Byfield plays center so there's some positional value but had 88 points in 179 (0.47 ppg) games before singing a $6.25 AAV extension with the Kings. It's always difficult to project RFA contracts because player development arcs on their ELC is all over the map so it's hard to pull comparables but those two seem reasonable. I think Knies' market value is probably around $7 million. I think the Leafs can match up to around $8 million without too much trouble, maybe even higher depending on how they structure Tavares or they move a depth player out.
Personally, I'd be pretty woozy about getting into that dollar amount for Knies, plus giving up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. He's a good player but I think he stabilizes at around a 25 goal guy with outlier years in the 30's. The Bruins obviously need a lot of talent and help but a $7-$8 million contract plus the picks is too rich for me for this particular player. I feel the same about Rossi and Peterka.
I guess TL;DR version is I don't think Knies is worth the contract and compensation and I don't think Toronto can be sqeezed into letting him go. I think the most likely path Toronto takes in the offseason is to sign their guys and run it back (again!). They have the cap space to do so and are protected against a Knes offer sheet. If they end up flaming out of the playoffs again and decide it's time for significant changes I think that means they let Marner walk and try to re-allocate the cap space ear marked to him on other players.
Pretty sure Elias broke a finger or something during the year. He didn’t miss any games but there was definitely something off for awhile.
Besides our draft pick, the less wear and tear will be another positive of no playoffs! Gotta look for the positives where you can find em.
It wasn't entirely the injuries that lowered the floor. Even with the injuries, they were in the playoff hunt leading into the 4 Nations and I think the prognostications of make the playoffs, maybe win a round ceiling weren't that far off.
The floor imploded when they raised the white flag and traded Marchand, Carlo and Coyle without replacing them with NHL players.
With BOS's OT loss, BOS has locked up either the #4 or #5 slot (pre-lottery).
If PHI gets a point (OT loss or win of any sort) in their finale @ Buffalo on Thursday, BOS will be in the #4 slot; otherwise, BOS will be in the #5 slot (pre-lottery)
If PHI gets a point (OT loss or win of any sort) in their finale @ Buffalo on Thursday, BOS will be in the #4 slot; otherwise, BOS will be in the #5 slot (pre-lottery)
I’m usually a painfully annoyingly positive person(obviously in the moment sports don’t count lol), but for some reason I’m terrified that whatever pick we don’t get between 4 and 5 will be the one to jump in the lottery
Correct.
Schaefer is pretty universally picked at 1OA.
That leaves - Misa, Hagens, Frondell to fall to the Bruins at 4/5/6 (Caleb Desnoyers is moving up a lot of boards as well).
At this point, I don't know that I don't take Frondell over Hagens if Misa is off the board. I wonder how much of Hagens production is playing with superior talent (he was on a line with Perrault and Leonard). Frondell seems like a guy who might have a higher upside.
Mission Accomplished! ( for me anyway). Hope we get the 4 slot but very happy with 5.
I hate how we got here ( Monty essentially quitting, Sway debacle, frustrating hockey to watch, injuries) but I love the result.
Maybe I was just much lower on the team last year than most but I look at where this organization is starting this off season and compare it to last June ( more looking ahead to future vs just 24/25)and I cannot believe it.
How Hampus comes back from injury is my biggest negative/concern.
Last year I almost dreaded the off season. I thought Pasta OT goal was Peak Bruins for awhile. There are many possible paths forward now. Flexibility is a wonderful thing.
Now find another good coach, preferably one that would like to stay.
I hate how we got here ( Monty essentially quitting, Sway debacle, frustrating hockey to watch, injuries) but I love the result.
Maybe I was just much lower on the team last year than most but I look at where this organization is starting this off season and compare it to last June ( more looking ahead to future vs just 24/25)and I cannot believe it.
How Hampus comes back from injury is my biggest negative/concern.
Last year I almost dreaded the off season. I thought Pasta OT goal was Peak Bruins for awhile. There are many possible paths forward now. Flexibility is a wonderful thing.
Now find another good coach, preferably one that would like to stay.
The fuse was lit with the 3 losses (and 8 of 9) leading up to the deadline. Chicken and egg, though.
McAvoy getting hurt for the season (and possibly getting misdiagnosed by the Wild's medical team) was the likely trigger point for the collapse.
That being said, the team wasn't going to go anywhere with their goalie situation. Swayman needed to play like a Vezina candidate after his deal and instead he morphed into Matt DelGuidice. I get that UMaine guys have to stick together but he could have at least become Garth Snow. He was terrible, and that was the biggest reason this season was a catastrophe.
They better have a plan for next year to either get Swayman untracked, or have a better alternative than Korpisalo if Swayman implodes again. Goalie Bob is great but clearly not a miracle worker.
A lot of words from Charlie Jacobs to say he's bummed and vows they'll be better. I guess the main takeaway is it doesn't appear like there will be any changes in leadership.
View: https://twitter.com/NHLBruins/status/1912506280259862744
View: https://twitter.com/NHLBruins/status/1912506280259862744
That's a lot of pablum from Charlie, not that I expected anything else. The team sucked. He is counting on the same guys who cannot figure out that toughness is passe to put together a modern winning team. They really did have a great run for many years, but the whole thing burned down this year and we don't know if Don and Cam can lead a rebuild. Here's to hoping they can.
Honestly, that sounds like a pretty boilerplate response to a bad season. We fell short, we'll do better, the fans are great. Not much to read into that one way or another, though I agree that it looks like Don and Cam are going to stick around to guide the team through to the next phase. Whether that is the right choice is up for debate, but that is what is happening.
Unrelated and completely anecdotal, but the last couple high draft picks (top 10) haven't worked out well for the Bs long term. Kessel, Seguin and Hamilton (and Thornton, if you want to go back that far) were offloaded with bad blood. And Hamill was a bust. I know that has nothing to do with anything and how the Thornton pick worked out is irrelevant to anything happening in 2025, but I am hoping that this pick bucks the trend and it is a long-term, high impact player for the Bruins who helps win multiple championships for the Bs in the coming years.
Unrelated and completely anecdotal, but the last couple high draft picks (top 10) haven't worked out well for the Bs long term. Kessel, Seguin and Hamilton (and Thornton, if you want to go back that far) were offloaded with bad blood. And Hamill was a bust. I know that has nothing to do with anything and how the Thornton pick worked out is irrelevant to anything happening in 2025, but I am hoping that this pick bucks the trend and it is a long-term, high impact player for the Bruins who helps win multiple championships for the Bs in the coming years.
I would normally share your fear about their retention of high draft picks, but that changed for me when Pasta was extended. I don't know the reasoning why they traded Hamilton, and the Seguin saga has been extensively documented, but I do believe they have moved away from their old habits of blaming all their troubles on their best offensive players.
I hope you're right. My sense is that all of them wanted to be paid appropriately when their rookie contracts were up and management for whatever reason had no interest in that so they were shipped out. Hamilton, IIRC also wanted the Bs to sign his brother to a minor league contract or something and was told no and he allegedly got pouty about that. Hopefully it is different this time around.
Hamilton didn't want to be here. Seguin had already signed a long term extension before they traded him, it wasn't money related. Thornton had signed an extension before he was moved.
The only one that falls under "they didn't want pay him" was Kessel.
The only one that falls under "they didn't want pay him" was Kessel.
Kessel was traded as an RFA. Combination of factors: Kessel wanting to get paid, Chiarelli making some questionable cap management decisions, Toronto loading up on extra draft picks to make an offer sheet a genuine possibility, team prioritizing keeping Krejci, team questioning his conditioning, and some rumored friction with the coaching staff. So it wasn't strictly money, although that obviously was a big part. What did grind my gears at the time of the Kessel trade was KPD, a noted Kessel hater, going up on his soapbox and screaming "team needs moar grit!!!". But I really don't think "grit" had anything to do with it. But at least the return netted them Seguin and Hamilton. Notable that neither Sweeney nor Neely were involved in that trade at all.
I'll give Sweeney a pass on the Hamilton situation, and no need to rehash Seguin. As for the draft, after having lived through them Kluzak-ing the #1 overall pick years ago, I'll not worry about it until they make the pick.
Normal end of the year housekeeping:
- Break up day is tomorrow. FWIW Sacco is scheduled to speak
- The year end Jacobs, Neely, Sweeney press conference is next Wednesday
- Minten, Lysell, Farinacci, Brunet, Lettieri assigned to Providence. Mitchell is on waivers for the purposes of assignment as well. Khusnutdinov not included because he requires waivers to be assigned.
- Break up day is tomorrow. FWIW Sacco is scheduled to speak
- The year end Jacobs, Neely, Sweeney press conference is next Wednesday
- Minten, Lysell, Farinacci, Brunet, Lettieri assigned to Providence. Mitchell is on waivers for the purposes of assignment as well. Khusnutdinov not included because he requires waivers to be assigned.
Would love that, don’t see it with his young kids, and the unfortunate fact that the Bruins are going to be on their 3rd permanent coach in 4 years…Carle ain’t leaving Denver unless he gets big bucks and job security.
Pandolfo is someone I’d like them to interview. Basically I want them to find a younger and more progressive coach. It’s the way the game is going (largely), and I think the Bruins are going to be a younger team the next few seasons.
Pandolfo is someone I’d like them to interview. Basically I want them to find a younger and more progressive coach. It’s the way the game is going (largely), and I think the Bruins are going to be a younger team the next few seasons.
As much as I'd love Carle in Boston, they aren't going to pony up what it will take to pry him out of Denver, and Swayman provides zero connection as they have no overlap in Alaska aside from both being born in Anchorage. Carle left Alaska when Swayman was 9 years old, and aside from his occasional trip back in the early/mid 2000's to visit in the Summer he hasn't been up here in almost 15 years.