'24-'25 Bruins Regular Season

joe dokes

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Little ball o' substitution patterns?

I would greatly enjoy mic'ed up coach Marchand.
He would not be the first....
Looking Back: Player-Coaches in the NHL – Slappers and Stats

The Lester Patrick entry is the best:

Lester Patrick, 1928
Known as one of the league’s most influential coaches of all time (he introduced the blue line, forward pass, and the playoff system to the NHL to list just a few of his laurels), Lester Patrick only played a single game in the NHL and he did so as a player-coach. The 44-year old, who was in his first year as New York Rangers head coach, substituted himself into a Stanley Cup Final game after starting netminder Lorne Chabot suffered an eye injury from a high shot. Back then, teams did not have backup goaltenders. The opposing coach, Eddie Gerard of the Montreal Maroons, refused to allow either of the two professional goalies in the crowd (Alec Connell, star goalie for the Ottawa Senators, and minor-leaguer Hugh McCormick) substitute for the Rangers, leading Patrick to get in front of the net himself. Odie Cleghorn, who was coach of the Pittsburgh Pirates at the time, was in the stands and allowed to substitute for Patrick on the bench. Cleghorn told the Rangers to play a hard checking game the rest of the night, which kept the Maroons from getting shots close on net. Patrick made 18 saves on 19 shots, leading to the Rangers’ victory.

94725
 

doctorogres

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Well there goes my “they’re keeping him in Providence for the year so he can hit the weights hard during the week” theory.
One of the first things Sacco said about him is that he’s added strength. And Poitras’s first comment about going down was about playing more minutes.

Speculating here, but I think they also wanted to set him up to keep adding strength during the season and especially over the breaks.
 

doctorogres

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I wonder what McAvoy is dealing with. It would explain some of his recent play. Maybe the shoulder again?
He had a wrist brace when I saw him at practice yesterday but skated the whole time. I think that was also reported on before the Panthers game. I noticed he was taping it a couple weeks ago (I’m a rock climber and that’s a common injury/tape job).

By the way, insanely easy to go see practice. You just park and walk in, though I get not everybody can go on a random weekday. Have to check the calendar the day of to make sure it’s still on, but there’s no tickets or even a person at the door. Really cool experience.
 

Gammon_Clark

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By the way, insanely easy to go see practice. You just park and walk in, though I get not everybody can go on a random weekday. Have to check the calendar the day of to make sure it’s still on, but there’s no tickets or even a person at the door. Really cool experience.
Thanks for the insight, I have often wondered about this. Does anyone know if they will be practicing on this Sunday the 19th? They are @Ottawa on the 18th and then home for a 1pm matinee versus the Sharks on the 20th. So I’m guessing, if anything, it would be an optional skate. I don’t live in the area anymore, but will be in town because my son has a youth hockey tournament. Can anyone help me figure out if there will be practice and if so, at what time it would be? Thank you in advance!
 

doctorogres

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Thanks for the insight, I have often wondered about this. Does anyone know if they will be practicing on this Sunday the 19th? They are @Ottawa on the 18th and then home for a 1pm matinee versus the Sharks on the 20th. So I’m guessing, if anything, it would be an optional skate. I don’t live in the area anymore, but will be in town because my son has a youth hockey tournament. Can anyone help me figure out if there will be practice and if so, at what time it would be? Thank you in advance!
https://warrior.finnlyconnect.com/schedule/72
 

cshea

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Thanks for the insight, I have often wondered about this. Does anyone know if they will be practicing on this Sunday the 19th? They are @Ottawa on the 18th and then home for a 1pm matinee versus the Sharks on the 20th. So I’m guessing, if anything, it would be an optional skate. I don’t live in the area anymore, but will be in town because my son has a youth hockey tournament. Can anyone help me figure out if there will be practice and if so, at what time it would be? Thank you in advance!
As of now yes but it is subject to chance.

https://warrior.finnlyconnect.com/schedule/72
 

Salem's Lot

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He had a wrist brace when I saw him at practice yesterday but skated the whole time. I think that was also reported on before the Panthers game. I noticed he was taping it a couple weeks ago (I’m a rock climber and that’s a common injury/tape job).

By the way, insanely easy to go see practice. You just park and walk in, though I get not everybody can go on a random weekday. Have to check the calendar the day of to make sure it’s still on, but there’s no tickets or even a person at the door. Really cool experience.
Makes sense. Wrists are tricky injuries.

I work around the corner from where they used to practice in Wilmington. I used to take my lunch breaks to watch them practice whenever I could. Really cool experience.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Swayman had his second excellent game in a row last night. 1.02 GSAE. He may have finally rounded into form. He is still at -1.8 GSAE for the season but that's an improvement from earlier.
 

jezza1918

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Swayman had his second excellent game in a row last night. 1.02 GSAE. He may have finally rounded into form. He is still at -1.8 GSAE for the season but that's an improvement from earlier.
It seems like he started to turn the corner right before the holidays with those two games where they ratcheted up the D and didnt allow many SOG. Even during the losing streak that followed he had three solid games with save %'s above the .920 mark, one less than average game and one bad game. Followed by these two excellent games. If I had to bet he'll be the Sway from the last couple years going forward, though with each bad game we will collectively (and rightfully so) be a bit triggered.
That said, thanks to Xfinity i cant even watch for the time being so ill rely on the level headed gamethread posts :)
 

cshea

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He's basically been fine since the coaching change. He has a .908 since then, including an 8 goal against game. He hasn't been a problem for a while. He's 9-8-1 and 4 of the losses he allowed 2 or fewer goals against.

It's ride or die time for him. 34 games to go and they're out of the playoff structure by points percentage. Can't mess around.
 

cshea

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FWIW, Lysell may or may not be coming back. He was listed on the official NHL roster as a healthy scratch last night. There's no word of his recall either from the team or on AHL transactions so it could've just been an error. However, Divver said Lysell had a post-practice conversation with McQuaid and Mougenel yesterday. Providence is in Syracuse tonight so we'll see if he's there.

It could be that they intended to call him up but plans changed with the injuries to Kastelic, McAvoy and Coyle's illness forcing them in a different direction. Koepke is probably out for a bit now so maybe the door is open again, though McLaughlin probably makes more sense as a Koepke replacement for the 4th line.

View: https://twitter.com/smclaughlin9/status/1879312633154957371


View: https://twitter.com/MarkDivver/status/1879319792806732155
 

doctorogres

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FWIW, Lysell may or may not be coming back. He was listed on the official NHL roster as a healthy scratch last night. There's no word of his recall either from the team or on AHL transactions so it could've just been an error. However, Divver said Lysell had a post-practice conversation with McQuaid and Mougenel yesterday. Providence is in Syracuse tonight so we'll see if he's there.

It could be that they intended to call him up but plans changed with the injuries to Kastelic, McAvoy and Coyle's illness forcing them in a different direction. Koepke is probably out for a bit now so maybe the door is open again, though McLaughlin probably makes more sense as a Koepke replacement for the 4th line.
Kasty and Koepke are two of our fastest forwards, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little Lysell while they’re out.

On the other hand, I think Wahlstrom was sat more because the org needed to play the people they just called up. They seem to really value treating prospects and fringe guys the right way like that.

People talk about him this way but Poitras has well below average speed. And I’m rooting for the kid but he did not look good after the first shift. 3rd line got caved after having been a strength the past several games.

That’s fine, he’s a 20yo. But it was a reminder he still has a ways to go.
 

BostonFanInCanesLand

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According to various beat writers (And the Bruins Xitter) on BlueSky and hellscapeXtwitter:
  1. Hampus Lindholm and Kastelic were at today's optional practice in non-contact jerseys.
  2. McAvoy was out there in a regular jersey. His IR stint was backdated to 1/11 so I think he'd be eligible to play in the next game (which isn't until Saturday 1/18). (Edit: I don't think they can back-date since he played, so he'll miss 1/18 but will be back soon).
  3. Lysell was a paper transaction and is in tonight's Providence lineup (per M Divver).
  4. Sacco says no word yet on Koepke.
With 2 more off-days it will be interesting to see what the lines look like. If Koepke is out maybe they try a 4th of Beecher-Lettieri-Brazeau? And I wonder if they'll keep Coyle protecting Poitras on the 3rd? If I squint I can see Wahlstrom at RW2. Easiest is to keep the lines the same and slide Wahlstrom onto LW4.
 

cshea

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Kasty and Koepke are two of our fastest forwards, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little Lysell while they’re out.

On the other hand, I think Wahlstrom was sat more because the org needed to play the people they just called up. They seem to really value treating prospects and fringe guys the right way like that.

People talk about him this way but Poitras has well below average speed. And I’m rooting for the kid but he did not look good after the first shift. 3rd line got caved after having been a strength the past several games.

That’s fine, he’s a 20yo. But it was a reminder he still has a ways to go.
To be fair the whole team got caved in. They've gotten results the past 2 games but they are probably playing worse than the previous 6 that they lost.

I'd keep rolling Wahlstrom out there for a bit. Only 1 goal in 10 games but he has pretty solid underlying numbers in a small-ish sample. I don't think they've got a diamond in the rough there but he's been more positive than negative. Lettieri is 29 and I think well established as an AAAA type guy. I get shaking things up a bit and rewarding a good soldier but they don't really have the luxury. They need points, badly. I think Wahlstrom is the better player.
 

Dummy Hoy

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Swayman had his second excellent game in a row last night. 1.02 GSAE. He may have finally rounded into form. He is still at -1.8 GSAE for the season but that's an improvement from earlier.
Dom Longlastname just wrote today in his 16 Stats column that since the holiday break Sway leads the league in Goals Saved Above Expected. SSS and all, but it really does look like he turned the corner. Probably too little too late, but nice to see.
 

cshea

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Neely and Charlie spoke at a Bruins Foundation event last night.

https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/cam-neely-boston-bruins-two-paths-nhl-trade-deadline/

Neely said kind of the obvious and toed the line. He says they have 2 paths they can take, either buying or retooling. Those decisions will probably be made around the Four Nations break. He said he doesn't have much of an appetite for retooling but acknowledges it might have to happen. He thinks there's a playoff team in there somewhere and this has been a super frustrating year. Doesn't want to jeopardize a chance at the playoffs by trading for futures. Also, doesn't want to go all in if they don't believe they have a good chance at a deep run.

Charlie gave Neely/Sweeney a vote of confidence. He said they don't measure success by playoff appearances, they do by Stanley Cups. But you can't win the Stanley Cup without making the playoffs and they've been in the playoffs for 8 straight years and he hopes for a 9th.

My take is that it'll take a calamity over the next 10ish games before the Four Nations for them to become outright sellers and that Neely/Sweeney probably get a mulligan if they do miss out.
 

joe dokes

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He thinks there's a playoff team in there somewhere
Though he's probably correct, that's a modest goal that won't really serve Jacobs's Stanley cup comment. Unless Swayman stands on his head *and* some offense suddenly appears, I dont see how this team wins more than one playoff series, and even that's only if they're matched up right. Though i understand the "gotta get in the tournament to win the tournament" logic, I think that in order to build a team that can advance further, they have to take a shot at risking the present. (though I have no clue what that looks like).
 

cshea

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Though he's probably correct, that's a modest goal that won't really serve Jacobs's Stanley cup comment. Unless Swayman stands on his head *and* some offense suddenly appears, I dont see how this team wins more than one playoff series, and even that's only if they're matched up right. Though i understand the "gotta get in the tournament to win the tournament" logic, I think that in order to build a team that can advance further, they have to take a shot at risking the present. (though I have no clue what that looks like).
Yes and no.

The roster isn't great, particularly the forwards, no doubt. However, I think the Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy to win in sports and a lot of that is because the playoffs are a crapshoot. A chip and chair applies more to the Stanley Cup playoffs than the playoffs in other sports. There's a reason the President's Trophy winner hardly ever wins the Cup. Having good players isn't always enough. Teams need everything coming together at the right time plus a heavy dose of luck. And sometimes the later two can carry the day. So there is value in sqeaking in and just having a chance. They have the types of cornerstone players that can carry teams deep. A goalie, a superstar scorer and a top 10 defenseman. Maybe, for whatever reason, they get in and it all comes together. The stars elevate, the complimentary players elevate, who knows. I don't think it's likely but you never know.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Yes and no.

The roster isn't great, particularly the forwards, no doubt. However, I think the Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy to win in sports and a lot of that is because the playoffs are a crapshoot. A chip and chair applies more to the Stanley Cup playoffs than the playoffs in other sports. There's a reason the President's Trophy winner hardly ever wins the Cup. Having good players isn't always enough. Teams need everything coming together at the right time plus a heavy dose of luck. And sometimes the later two can carry the day. So there is value in sqeaking in and just having a chance. They have the types of cornerstone players that can carry teams deep. A goalie, a superstar scorer and a top 10 defenseman. Maybe, for whatever reason, they get in and it all comes together. The stars elevate, the complimentary players elevate, who knows. I don't think it's likely but you never know.
The Bruins in particular have not traditionally been an underdog team making unexpected deep playoff runs. That is in part due to their finishes in their recent history, which has mostly been very good. The Bruins have more than once been on the receiving end of historical upsets (most notably in 2023), but the last year I can remember a Bruins team making a deep run that belied their regular season results was 1992. The Bruins were 7th overall in points in 2011, and though they beat a couple of higher ranked teams along the way, they certainly were not a "just squeak into the playoffs and anything can happen" team. They were a wagon.

And besides, I suspect any organizational luck they had was spent for the 2011 Cup.

In any case, the Bruins may well get into the playoff this year as a lower-ranked team. Their franchise history over the past 30 years indicates that's usually a path for them for a quick postseason exit.
 

FL4WL3SS

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Not buyers, but not sellers. What's the direction of the org? Sounds like we're stuck in mediocrity here.

I haven't really understood the overall vision/plan for some time, probably a me issue, but this certainly doesn't help.
 

RedOctober3829

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Yes and no.

The roster isn't great, particularly the forwards, no doubt. However, I think the Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy to win in sports and a lot of that is because the playoffs are a crapshoot. A chip and chair applies more to the Stanley Cup playoffs than the playoffs in other sports. There's a reason the President's Trophy winner hardly ever wins the Cup. Having good players isn't always enough. Teams need everything coming together at the right time plus a heavy dose of luck. And sometimes the later two can carry the day. So there is value in sqeaking in and just having a chance. They have the types of cornerstone players that can carry teams deep. A goalie, a superstar scorer and a top 10 defenseman. Maybe, for whatever reason, they get in and it all comes together. The stars elevate, the complimentary players elevate, who knows. I don't think it's likely but you never know.
Hockey lends itself to teams sneaking in and making deep runs. Goalie gets hot, you get a good matchup, an OT game or 2 goes your way, and you're onto the next round. I think the Bruins could be one of those teams if Swayman ends up rounding into shape.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Hockey lends itself to teams sneaking in and making deep runs. Goalie gets hot, you get a good matchup, an OT game or 2 goes your way, and you're onto the next round. I think the Bruins could be one of those teams if Swayman ends up rounding into shape.
As I mentioned above, the Bruins have never really been that sort of team in their history. They make deep playoff runs from strong regular seasons. When they sneak in to the postseason, they generally go out of the postseason very quickly.

Just one of those franchise quirks.
 

NYCSox

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As I mentioned above, the Bruins have never really been that sort of team in their history. They make deep playoff runs from strong regular seasons. When they sneak in to the postseason, they generally go out of the postseason very quickly.

Just one of those franchise quirks.
1991-92 is the one exception that comes to mind. They reached the conference finals after going just 36-32-12. Of course they didn't have Neely for all but nine games.
 

cshea

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Not buyers, but not sellers. What's the direction of the org? Sounds like we're stuck in mediocrity here.

I haven't really understood the overall vision/plan for some time, probably a me issue, but this certainly doesn't help.
Their vision/plan is to make the playoffs every year and thus compete for a Cup. I think they've been pretty clear about that and it comes through in the quotes from last night.

Cam hedged on buying/selling because of the position the team is in. They're currently on the playoff bubble with 36 games to go. The deadline isn't until March 7 so they'll see where they are when they got closer to it. However, I think it's abundantly clear that they won't be sellers. The owner said he wants playoffs. Neely said he doesn't want to do anything to jeopardize a shot at the playoffs. He just wants to be smart about it. The only other time they've been on the bubble at the deadline was Sweeney's first year and they bought. They held on to Loui Eriksson as a pending UFA and traded for Lee Stempniak and JM Liles.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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1991-92 is the one exception that comes to mind. They reached the conference finals after going just 36-32-12. Of course they didn't have Neely for all but nine games.
Yup, I mentioned 1992 above. It's the last time they made an unexpected deep playoff run knocking out teams above their station. The swept the Canadiens and Pat Burns along the way.
 

BostonFanInCanesLand

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Kastelic back. Lettieri still on 2nd line. Coyle staying on 3rd line.

So Sweeney/Neely/Sacco are playing it safe for now. I understand having Geekie on the first line, he's playing well (even though that spot eventually needs an upgrade). He's be a strong 3rd liner playing against weaker lines but I understand the current logic.

I don't get Lettieri on the 2nd line (I guess he's got plenty of NHL games under his belt and you know what you're going to get). At a minimum I'd work Wahlstrom into that spot and see if you find a spark.

I really hope that they give Lysell a multi-game shot on the 2nd line (or at least the 3rd line with Poitras). It doesn't have to be a "for the rest of the season" call up.

If they're actually considering adding at the trade deadline it is part of due diligence to see whether Lysell might be part of the solution.

(Per Scott McLaughlin) Lines at Friday's Bruins practice:
Geekie-Zacha-Pastrnak
Marchand-Lindholm-Lettieri
Frederic-Poitras-Coyle
Brazeau-Beecher-Kastelic
Wahlstrom

Zadorov-Carlo
Wotherspoon-Peeke
Lohrei-Oesterle
Lindholm (no contact)-Callahan

Swayman
Korpisalo
No McAvoy or Koepke.
 

doctorogres

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Not buyers, but not sellers. What's the direction of the org? Sounds like we're stuck in mediocrity here.

I haven't really understood the overall vision/plan for some time, probably a me issue, but this certainly doesn't help.
All-in for Bergeron and Krejci’s last season in 2023. Fill needs around core of Pasta-McAvoy-Swayman as deals and cap space become available. Do this while being a solid playoff team, though not a favorite

We’ll see what they do, but I think they’re also back to valuing 1st and second round picks more highly. Just based on the Ullmark deal and taking on Korpi’s salary.

Last year they overperformed, which raised fan expectations. And, obviously, 2023 went worse than it could have. All of this would be a lot more palatable if they had made it to the dance. But that was on the players and coaching, not the roster construction.

Reading between the lines, Cam thought we overperformed in 2024 but that the roster additions would make up for it. We know for sure that Pasta, McAvoy, and Marchand have been dealing with nagging issues. Elias missed camp and I’ve gotta think he’s hampered in some way, too. Swayman underperformed. Hampus took an arrow to the knee.

I think the ambiguity here is twofold. Can this team play closer to what they looked like on paper? And what deals are out there/which teams are actually sellers? That seems like a realistic view of things to me, and obviously they know more about the health stuff.

The decisions that were made to GFIN in 2023 mean that it’s not possible to do a full-on tear down. But I think we see a major retool of the offense going into next year. If there’s a deal that happens to help you this year, that’s gravy, but it’s really about the next 2-3. And this year becomes less a part of the equation if they don’t get it together over the next month or so.
 

cshea

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I think that sums it up well. They mortgaged a ton in 2023 and it blew up on them when they didn't win it all. It left them having to build for 2024 and 2025 with their hands tied behind their back because of the lack of resources both in terms of tradeable assets and cap space. Easier to swallow when you have the Stanley Cup sitting on your desk but alas.

I think if they had the year they are having now last year, nobody blinks an eye. But they started 14-2-2 and that carried them through and raised expectations. As Cam said, a lot guys had career years last year. They didn't anticipate that those players would reach the same production level this season but also didn't think essentially every single one would take a step back and not just level off to career norms but dip below.

We'll see how they do going forward. I don't think they'll ever sell. I know Cam threw out "retool" but I don't think that's a real option. Both he and ownership indicated they'd like to make the playoffs. I think if anything an in-season "retool" for them will mean doing nothing. In the decade under Sweeney, the Bruins have never executed a trade in-season that could be classified as a "sell" or "retool."

I think there is some hope. Pastrnak seems back. Geekie has 20 points in his last 32 games and that line seems to be rolling. Maybe Poitras gives them a boost. Swayman's game is on the rise. Hampus Lindholm is back at practice and they should get him and McAvoy back in the lineup sometime soon. We'll see.
 

cshea

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My guess is Jones replaces some of the physical stuff they're losing with Kastelic going out.

Brown is the 13th forward. Frederic missed yeseterday's game with an illness. It's probably going through the room and they need a body in case someone can't go tomorrow or Thursday.
 

doctorogres

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We'll see how they do going forward. I don't think they'll ever sell. I know Cam threw out "retool" but I don't think that's a real option. Both he and ownership indicated they'd like to make the playoffs. I think if anything an in-season "retool" for them will mean doing nothing. In the decade under Sweeney, the Bruins have never executed a trade in-season that could be classified as a "sell" or "retool."

I think there is some hope. Pastrnak seems back. Geekie has 20 points in his last 32 games and that line seems to be rolling. Maybe Poitras gives them a boost. Swayman's game is on the rise. Hampus Lindholm is back at practice and they should get him and McAvoy back in the lineup sometime soon. We'll see.
It depends what they know about injuries. I really struggle with this in following hockey compared to baseball, because of the asymmetry between what the team knows vs. what we find out about. For example, Pasta was obviously hampered with something until recently, but now he's looking better and better.

I want to start a thread about stats/analytics when I have time, but some questions I have are:
  1. Is Elias dealing with something? His shoot % on unblocked shots is at a career low and, in particular, missing the net on those shots at an alarming rate. Like his career net miss above expected is -0.375%; this year, it's 11.7%. Will he get better?
  2. What's the recovery timeline for McAvoy and does he get to 100% after Four Nations? (Also, do they keep him on the IR to sit him for the tourney?)
  3. What's the recovery timeline for Hampus?
Throw in Koepke and Kastelic, and it seems like health is the biggest factor here.

I think Neely was pretty straightforward in what he said. So many teams are in the mix and there's not a lot of clarity yet as to what's out there. For the Bruins, I think the biggest X-factor is health. Obviously they know how bad their goal differential is compared to their record.
 

cshea

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It depends what they know about injuries. I really struggle with this in following hockey compared to baseball, because of the asymmetry between what the team knows vs. what we find out about. For example, Pasta was obviously hampered with something until recently, but now he's looking better and better.

I want to start a thread about stats/analytics when I have time, but some questions I have are:
  1. Is Elias dealing with something? His shoot % on unblocked shots is at a career low and, in particular, missing the net on those shots at an alarming rate. Like his career net miss above expected is -0.375%; this year, it's 11.7%. Will he get better?
  2. What's the recovery timeline for McAvoy and does he get to 100% after Four Nations? (Also, do they keep him on the IR to sit him for the tourney?)
  3. What's the recovery timeline for Hampus?
Throw in Koepke and Kastelic, and it seems like health is the biggest factor here.

I think Neely was pretty straightforward in what he said. So many teams are in the mix and there's not a lot of clarity yet as to what's out there. For the Bruins, I think the biggest X-factor is health. Obviously they know how bad their goal differential is compared to their record.
Elias Lindholm did miss about 2 weeks of training camp with some sort of injury. No idea what it was or if that's impacting anything. Shooting percentage is notoriously fickle. Pasta went through a similar thing early. Shooting percentage was down, now it's rebounding. Is it because he's healthier or is it just because the worm started to turn? Who knows. Limdholm's shot volume aren't crazy out of line with other years in his career. Probably have to dive into where the shots are coming from.

Hampus Lindholm is probably a week to 10 days away from returning. Maybe less. He's been skating since the Florida swing. Next step is practice and taking contact. A wrench here is they won't be practicing because of the game schedule. Off today, games Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if he's with the team at morning skate tomorrow with the full group. They could practice Friday but it is unlikely and even if they do it'll probably be an optional. So getting through the contact phase might take a bit longer. I would expect he'll be back before the Four Nations.

Hard to guage on McAvoy. It's something upper body/arm, and he hasn't stopped skating so he was never shut down entirely. The team/Sacco made it seem like he just needed a few games off. Makes me think he'll be back this week but if not then the Four Nations becomes a question mark. Personally, I'd hold him out but it's hard to get players to agree to miss these tournaments.
 

Foxy42

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McAvoy had a pretty solid splint / cast on his right wrist at a STH event last night.
 

doctorogres

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Elias Lindholm did miss about 2 weeks of training camp with some sort of injury. No idea what it was or if that's impacting anything. Shooting percentage is notoriously fickle. Pasta went through a similar thing early. Shooting percentage was down, now it's rebounding. Is it because he's healthier or is it just because the worm started to turn? Who knows. Limdholm's shot volume aren't crazy out of line with other years in his career. Probably have to dive into where the shots are coming from.
Yeah this was kind of my question, about what stats are understood to normalize and how quickly. Just by the eye test, Elias has looked hesitant to shoot at times, especially earlier in the season, even when he had open looks. His passing, handle, and shooting all look like he can't quite put his blade where he wants it.

Pasta was on record as saying he had an injury lingering from Worlds, and also missed camp. It was pretty obvious he was at like 70-80% until maybe about a month ago. Now it's all coming together and he seems to get better every game.

One can hope the same goes for Elias. He still has value winning draws and playing on both special teams units, and his off the puck game is excellent. One interesting thing from yesterday was that he would play with the 2nd line if they started in the D-zone and then hop off for Poitras once they got in transition. And he's #4 on the team in terms of relative expected goals %.

Hampus Lindholm is probably a week to 10 days away from returning. Maybe less. He's been skating since the Florida swing. Next step is practice and taking contact. A wrench here is they won't be practicing because of the game schedule. Off today, games Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if he's with the team at morning skate tomorrow with the full group. They could practice Friday but it is unlikely and even if they do it'll probably be an optional. So getting through the contact phase might take a bit longer. I would expect he'll be back before the Four Nations.
He's been practicing with a no-contact jersey since last week. For example, in this video.

Hard to guage on McAvoy. It's something upper body/arm, and he hasn't stopped skating so he was never shut down entirely. The team/Sacco made it seem like he just needed a few games off. Makes me think he'll be back this week but if not then the Four Nations becomes a question mark. Personally, I'd hold him out but it's hard to get players to agree to miss these tournaments.
I posted about seeing him with a wrist brace when I went to practice last week. :p That said, wrists are very complicated.

I think my post was a little unclear. That list was meant to be information the Bruins FO knows more about than we do. It just changes the calculus if you expect the guys you already have to get better as you approach the deadline.
 

doctorogres

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My guess is Jones replaces some of the physical stuff they're losing with Kastelic going out.

Brown is the 13th forward. Frederic missed yeseterday's game with an illness. It's probably going through the room and they need a body in case someone can't go tomorrow or Thursday.
Yeah, they're guys to replace the 4th liners.

I don't have a firm handle on how the math works out, but doesn't this also maximize the cap space you get out of Hampus on the LTIR? Puckpedia has them at $3.9m for deadline cap space.
 

cshea

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Yeah, they're guys to replace the 4th liners.

I don't have a firm handle on how the math works out, but doesn't this also maximize the cap space you get out of Hampus on the LTIR? Puckpedia has them at $3.9m for deadline cap space.
It doesn't really impact the cap too much. They did the cap gymnastics last week before they placed him on LTIR They called up Lettieri, Callahan to play and Lysell as a paper transaction. The Lysell part of the transaction was to get them as close to the cap as possible before putting Lindholm on LTIR. The idea is to get as close to the cap as possible before putting the player on LTIR so they can use his full salary.

I don't think it really has much bearing on the cap for the trade dealine. Unless something goes really wrong, Lindholm should be back well before the deadline so they'll lose the LTIR and will even need to make some moves prior to activating him.
 

doctorogres

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It doesn't really impact the cap too much. They did the cap gymnastics last week before they placed him on LTIR They called up Lettieri, Callahan to play and Lysell as a paper transaction. The Lysell part of the transaction was to get them as close to the cap as possible before putting Lindholm on LTIR. The idea is to get as close to the cap as possible before putting the player on LTIR so they can use his full salary.

I don't think it really has much bearing on the cap for the trade dealine. Unless something goes really wrong, Lindholm should be back well before the deadline so they'll lose the LTIR and will even need to make some moves prior to activating him.
Gotcha. So those transactions allow them to cycle through multiple guys while Hampus is still on the LTIR? But Jones and Brown will have to go on waivers to go back down, right?
 

cshea

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Gotcha. So those transactions allow them to cycle through multiple guys while Hampus is still on the LTIR? But Jones and Brown will have to go on waivers to go back down, right?
Yeah. When they are ready to activate Lindholm they will need to get their LTIR pool above $6.5 million. To do that they'll need to make transactions. Be it through waivers, demotions or trades.

They should be able to send Lettieri, Callahan, Jones and Brown down without waivers. They'll need waivers if any of those players play 10 games or stay up for 30 calendar days.
 

Jordu

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I went through NHL Edge and compiled skating speed and speed burst data for the Bruins who have played more than a handful of games.

NHL Edge lists skating speed percentile for above the 50th percentile. Every else is listed as "below 50th percentile." Speed bursts are measured in number so I just used percentiles here.

FORWARDS -- TOP SKATING SPEED
Kastelic: 23.03 (89th percentile)
Beecher: 22.81 (82nd percentile)
Koepke: 22.78 (81st percentile)
Pastrnak: 22.37 (63rd percentile)
Zacha: 22.17 (50th percentile)
LEAGUE AVERAGE FORWARDS: 22.09
Frederic: 22.09
Coyle: 22.04
Marchand: 22.06
McLaughlin: 21.95
Lindholm, E.: 21.58
Brazeau: 21.29
Poitras: 21.21
Geekie: 20.99

FORWARDS -- SPEED BURSTS OVER 20 MPH
Kastelic: 94th percentile
Beecher: 89th percentile
Koepke: 80th percentile
Pastrnak: 74th percentile
Zacha: 65th percentile
Coyle: 62nd percentile
Frederic: 62nd percentile
Marchand: 60th percentile
Lindholm: 51st percentile
Geekie: below 50th percentile
Poitras: below 50th percentile
Brazeau: below 50th percentile
McLaughlin: below 50th percentile

DEFENSEMEN -- TOP SKATING SPEED
Zadorov: 23.15 (95th percentile)
Lohrei: 22.50 (87th percentile)
McAvoy: 21.58 (53rd percentile)
Lindholm, H: 21.56 (52nd percentile)
LEAGUE AVERAGE DEFENSEMEN: 21.49
Wotherspoon: 21.20
Peeke: 21.19
Carlo: 20.85
Oesterle: 20.01

DEFENSEMEN -- SPEED BURSTS OVER 20 MPH
Zadorov: 85th percentile
McAvoy: 77th percentile
Lohrei: 69th percentile
Oesterle: below 50th percentile
Peeke: below 50th percentile
Lindholm, H: below 50th percentile
Wotherspoon: below 50th percentile
Carlo: below 50th percentile
 

mwonow

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I went through NHL Edge and compiled skating speed and speed burst data for the Bruins who have played more than a handful of games.

NHL Edge lists skating speed percentile for above the 50th percentile. Every else is listed as "below 50th percentile." Speed bursts are measured in number so I just used percentiles here.

FORWARDS -- TOP SKATING SPEED
Kastelic: 23.03 (89th percentile)
Beecher: 22.81 (82nd percentile)
Koepke: 22.78 (81st percentile)
Pastrnak: 22.37 (63rd percentile)
Zacha: 22.17 (50th percentile)
LEAGUE AVERAGE FORWARDS: 22.09
Frederic: 22.09
Coyle: 22.04
Marchand: 22.06
McLaughlin: 21.95
Lindholm, E.: 21.58
Brazeau: 21.29
Poitras: 21.21
Geekie: 20.99

FORWARDS -- SPEED BURSTS OVER 20 MPH
Kastelic: 94th percentile
Beecher: 89th percentile
Koepke: 80th percentile
Pastrnak: 74th percentile
Zacha: 65th percentile
Coyle: 62nd percentile
Frederic: 62nd percentile
Marchand: 60th percentile
Lindholm: 51st percentile
Geekie: below 50th percentile
Poitras: below 50th percentile
Brazeau: below 50th percentile
McLaughlin: below 50th percentile

DEFENSEMEN -- TOP SKATING SPEED
Zadorov: 23.15 (95th percentile)
Lohrei: 22.50 (87th percentile)
McAvoy: 21.58 (53rd percentile)
Lindholm, H: 21.56 (52nd percentile)
LEAGUE AVERAGE DEFENSEMEN: 21.49
Wotherspoon: 21.20
Peeke: 21.19
Carlo: 20.85
Oesterle: 20.01

DEFENSEMEN -- SPEED BURSTS OVER 20 MPH
Zadorov: 85th percentile
McAvoy: 77th percentile
Lohrei: 69th percentile
Oesterle: below 50th percentile
Peeke: below 50th percentile
Lindholm, H: below 50th percentile
Wotherspoon: below 50th percentile
Carlo: below 50th percentile
That's interesting, thanks! Another reason why Kastelic is hard to play against.
 

joe dokes

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I went through NHL Edge and compiled skating speed and speed burst data for the Bruins who have played more than a handful of games.

NHL Edge lists skating speed percentile for above the 50th percentile. Every else is listed as "below 50th percentile." Speed bursts are measured in number so I just used percentiles here.

FORWARDS -- TOP SKATING SPEED
Kastelic: 23.03 (89th percentile)
Beecher: 22.81 (82nd percentile)
Koepke: 22.78 (81st percentile)
Pastrnak: 22.37 (63rd percentile)
Zacha: 22.17 (50th percentile)
LEAGUE AVERAGE FORWARDS: 22.09
Frederic: 22.09
Coyle: 22.04
Marchand: 22.06
McLaughlin: 21.95
Lindholm, E.: 21.58
Brazeau: 21.29
Poitras: 21.21
Geekie: 20.99

FORWARDS -- SPEED BURSTS OVER 20 MPH
Kastelic: 94th percentile
Beecher: 89th percentile
Koepke: 80th percentile
Pastrnak: 74th percentile
Zacha: 65th percentile
Coyle: 62nd percentile
Frederic: 62nd percentile
Marchand: 60th percentile
Lindholm: 51st percentile
Geekie: below 50th percentile
Poitras: below 50th percentile
Brazeau: below 50th percentile
McLaughlin: below 50th percentile

DEFENSEMEN -- TOP SKATING SPEED
Zadorov: 23.15 (95th percentile)
Lohrei: 22.50 (87th percentile)
McAvoy: 21.58 (53rd percentile)
Lindholm, H: 21.56 (52nd percentile)
LEAGUE AVERAGE DEFENSEMEN: 21.49
Wotherspoon: 21.20
Peeke: 21.19
Carlo: 20.85
Oesterle: 20.01

DEFENSEMEN -- SPEED BURSTS OVER 20 MPH
Zadorov: 85th percentile
McAvoy: 77th percentile
Lohrei: 69th percentile
Oesterle: below 50th percentile
Peeke: below 50th percentile
Lindholm, H: below 50th percentile
Wotherspoon: below 50th percentile
Carlo: below 50th percentile
Good stuff. I am surprised at the relative speeds of Oesterle and Zadorov (based solely on TV viewing.....)
 

doctorogres

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Good stuff. I am surprised at the relative speeds of Oesterle and Zadorov (based solely on TV viewing.....)
Zadorov is big and a pretty smooth skater so it's a little deceptive, but you rarely see him get beat back to a puck or back to our zone.

People complain about how Sweeney said he was looking to add speed but didn't actually do that, but Zadorov, Koepke, and Kastelic are all pretty dang fast. Elias not so much, but that move was understandable on paper for what the team needed.

I'm pretty sure that speed bursts is a counting stat on NHL Edge, so I wouldn't put too much stock in guys who rank low for that if they haven't played substantial minutes.
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
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I think tracking skating speed burst/speed is a rather empty stat. Dan Paille was a very fast skater in a straight line. He also couldn't do a lot with a puck at high speed. Skating fast and actually making plays while skating fast are two very different skill sets. Beecher and Kastelic might be fast redline to redline but they don't process the game or handle the puck well at those speeds.
Pure skating speed is probably most useful for forwards on the forecheck. When they just need to get on top of the D without really thinking about making hockey plays just disrupt the play. Beecher and Kostelic seem do a good job on the forecheck. They just don't do much when they actually have the puck.