2025 lineup

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I don’t think Anthony or Campbell have much left to prove in AAA. The Sox can play the service time manipulation game but I hope they don’t

Teel is wishcasting a bit, I’ll admit. But still think he arrives at some point in ‘25

Mayer won’t make the OD roster

It'll likely come down to how they play in spring training. Anthony sported a .433 BABIP in his time in Worcester and Campbell had less than 100 PAs. There's nothing definitive about their time in AAA that says they are fully ready to be big leaguers. If they can win a spot with their spring training performance, great. But I doubt there will be a "service time manipulation game" going on with either of them. If they start the year in Worcester, it will be because they didn't earn a spot in Boston.

What will be interesting this winter is how much Breslow clears the decks for them. If they go into spring with all or most of Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Yoshida, Refsnyder, plus maybe a free agent (O'Neill or otherwise), it would suggest they're not ready to hand Anthony a job. Ditto for Campbell if all or most of Story, Rafaela, Grissom, Hamilton, and Valdez are all still around come the end of February. I don't expect that to be the case. Breslow is going to have a lot of options.

 

[Fishy1]

If 4 years of control of Casas is on the table for Guerrero + ?, why wouldn't Toronto consider that? They're not resigning Guerrero after this year. I'm sure his personality would be abrasive, but I'd be on board with taking a flyer on Manoah as the additional piece, let Bailey get his hands on him and try to fix him?

Casas has a 111 wrc+ against LHP for his career. He outperformed Guerrero's first two seasons by a substantial margin, and he was better than Guerrero just last year, in his rookie season. And he's got 5 more years until he's a free agent.

Trading Casas away just so we can pay Vladdy as he hits free agency when Casas could explode next year to be nearly as good seems foolish. Keep Casas, trade from the middle infield/outfield glut, and get yourself some pitching. And then you're in business, IMO.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Casas has a 111 wrc+ against LHP for his career. He outperformed Guerrero's first two seasons by a substantial margin, and he was better than Guerrero just last year, in his rookie season. And he's got 5 more years until he's a free agent.

Trading Casas away just so we can pay Vladdy as he hits free agency when Casas could explode next year to be nearly as good seems foolish. Keep Casas, trade from the middle infield/outfield glut, and get yourself some pitching. And then you're in business, IMO.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I like Triston Casas and understand not wanting to trade him. The primary issue for me is handedness and Guerrero largely solves that issue. Other Righties that would be improvements over what we currently have (Just going down the list of top 50 2024 WAR leaders):

• Francisco Lindor - Probably not going anywhere
• Jose Ramirez - Our 3B is pretty good.
• Ketel Marte - Exceptional fit for the Red Sox, probably not going anywhere
• Vladi - Potentially available
• William Contreras - I'd gladly welcome him to the team, but probably not going anywhere
• Matt Chapman - Just extended and we have a 3B
• Brent Rooker - An option if they can move Yoshida.
• Marcell Ozuna - Potential fit, probably not going anywhere
• Willy Adames - Potential fit, free agent
• Mookie Betts - How do you get guys like that?
• Jurickson Profar - I wanted him last year but I can't really complain about how O'Neil did in 2024.
• Carlos Correa - Probably not going anywhere
• Dansby Swanson - I wanted the Sox to go in on him when they let Bogaerts go, but again I don't think he's available or worth targeting.
• Alex Bregman - Free Agent, but probably not a fit for a few reasons
• Nico Hoerner - I'd be interested, not sure the Cubs would trade him
• Trea Turner - Not going anywhere
• Julio Rodriguez - Contract is super team friendly, he's not going anywhere

 

[Fishy1]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I like Triston Casas and understand not wanting to trade him. The primary issue for me is handedness and Guerrero largely solves that issue. Other Righties that would be improvements over what we currently have (Just going down the list of top 50 2024 WAR leaders):

• Francisco Lindor - Probably not going anywhere
• Jose Ramirez - Our 3B is pretty good.
• Ketel Marte - Exceptional fit for the Red Sox, probably not going anywhere
• Vladi - Potentially available
• William Contreras - I'd gladly welcome him to the team, but probably not going anywhere
• Matt Chapman - Just extended and we have a 3B
• Brent Rooker - An option if they can move Yoshida.
• Marcell Ozuna - Potential fit, probably not going anywhere
• Willy Adames - Potential fit, free agent
• Mookie Betts - How do you get guys like that?
• Jurickson Profar - I wanted him last year but I can't really complain about how O'Neil did in 2024.
• Carlos Correa - Probably not going anywhere
• Dansby Swanson - I wanted the Sox to go in on him when they let Bogaerts go, but again I don't think he's available or worth targeting.
• Alex Bregman - Free Agent, but probably not a fit for a few reasons
• Nico Hoerner - I'd be interested, not sure the Cubs would trade him
• Trea Turner - Not going anywhere
• Julio Rodriguez - Contract is super team friendly, he's not going anywhere

The handedness thing makes me wonder if you've been paying attention at all to Kristian Campbell. He's the closest thing we've had to a Mookie-like prospect since Mookie. Yes, there's no such thing as a sure thing with prospects, but... I mean, a guy with Campbell's track record is as close as you can come. Barring some horrific turn of events or total loss of confidence, he's the next Pedroia/Xander/Mookie. He's going to be great for a long time, and he fulfills your need for right-handed power.

The most important thing is you don't get trigger happy trading your best young players in order to spend more on marginally better players, you play them and spend from positions of advantage.

With Kristian Campbell coming up too and Vaughn Grissom potentially returning to form, trading Casas should be the last thing on this team's mind. Trade Mayer or Hamilton or even Grissom + for the pitching you need, and let the kids play.

We've won championships over and over again in the last 20 years through a pipeline of good, young players, by trusting them to win us ballgames. We have not been in the habit of trading our best young players for defensively challenged first baseman and then signing them to megadeals, because that's bad business.

 

[simplicio]

I think the RHB need is overblown. Full season of Story, Grissom, Casas, plus whatever you get from Campbell and Anthony (reverse split this year) is going to be way more coverage than what we got from 475 PA of O'Neill. I don't see them needing another RHB unless Ref retires.

Also the AL was substantially more right handed this year. 16.2k RHP innings to 5k LHP. NL was 14.7k to 6.4k.

 

[Fishy1]

I think the RHB need is overblown. Full season of Story, Grissom, Casas, plus whatever you get from Campbell and Anthony (reverse split this year) is going to be way more coverage than what we got from 475 PA of O'Neill. I don't see them needing another RHB unless Ref retires.

Also the AL was substantially more right handed this year. 16.2k RHP innings to 5k LHP. NL was 14.7k to 6.4k.

100%. Totally agree.

 

[BaseballJones]

I think the RHB need is overblown. Full season of Story, Grissom, Casas, plus whatever you get from Campbell and Anthony (reverse split this year) is going to be way more coverage than what we got from 475 PA of O'Neill. I don't see them needing another RHB unless Ref retires.

Also the AL was substantially more right handed this year. 16.2k RHP innings to 5k LHP. NL was 14.7k to 6.4k.

Despite the handedness issue, the Red Sox are #9 in all MLB in runs scored per game at 4.69. And that's with one of their best hitters (Casas) out for a huge chunk of the season.

Now I don't see Campbell really filling the RH power role, at least not for a few more years. 20 homers in 517 PA. Not bad at all, of course, but I'd like a 35-homer guy from the right side. Not sure he's going to be that until his mid-20s.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

The handedness thing makes me wonder if you've been paying attention at all to Kristian Campbell. He's the closest thing we've had to a Mookie-like prospect since Mookie. Yes, there's no such thing as a sure thing with prospects, but... I mean, a guy with Campbell's track record is as close as you can come. Barring some horrific turn of events or total loss of confidence, he's the next Pedroia/Xander/Mookie. He's going to be great for a long time, and he fulfills your need for right-handed power.

The most important thing is you don't get trigger happy trading your best young players in order to spend more on marginally better players, you play them and spend from positions of advantage.

With Kristian Campbell coming up too and Vaughn Grissom potentially returning to form, trading Casas should be the last thing on this team's mind. Trade Mayer or Hamilton or even Grissom + for the pitching you need, and let the kids play.

We've won championships over and over again in the last 20 years through a pipeline of good, young players, by trusting them to win us ballgames. We have not been in the habit of trading our best young players for defensively challenged first baseman and then signing them to megadeals, because that's bad business.

I think the RHB need is overblown. Full season of Story, Grissom, Casas, plus whatever you get from Campbell and Anthony (reverse split this year) is going to be way more coverage than what we got from 475 PA of O'Neill. I don't see them needing another RHB unless Ref retires.

Also the AL was substantially more right handed this year. 16.2k RHP innings to 5k LHP. NL was 14.7k to 6.4k.

Breslow, who is usually guarded, mentioned the handedness issue as a specific area to address. I think the cleanest / easiest approach would be to deal Yoshida and Abreu, maybe bring back O'Neil and stay the course across the board. That doesn't completely solve it, but gets you going in the right direction.

 

[nighthob]

This seems very straightforward to me: They need to trade one of Anthony, Duran, or Abreu for a starting pitcher. That seems pretty obviously the way to use our depth to get better.

Which one? I think the rest of the lineup is strong enough that I'd trade whichever of the three gets you the best starting pitcher. Let's say for the sake of argument it's Anthony. I'm fine calling our outfield Duran/Rafaela/Abreu for the next four years.

Absolutely not. When Roman Anthony hits the ball it dies screaming. Hitters like Anthony or Campbell don't come around very often. Boston has the good fortune to have drafted both of them. Pretty much anyone else should be on that outbound shuttle.

To be brutally frank, as much as I love Mayer, he'd be the guy (from the Big 4) that I'd move given that they have Mikey Romero and Franklin Arias coming up behind him. He's going to be a very good SS, but they have others that can do that to varying degrees. Put another way Mayer's value comes from being a guy that projects to be an OPS+ 120 guy with good SS D. There's a world where Mikey Romero and/or Franklin Arias do that.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Absolutely not. When Roman Anthony hits the ball it dies screaming. Hitters like Anthony or Campbell don't come around very often. Boston has the good fortune to have drafted both of them. Pretty much anyone else should be on that outbound shuttle.

To be brutally frank, as much as I love Mayer, he'd be the guy (from the Big 4) that I'd move given that they have Mikey Romero and Franklin Arias coming up behind him. He's going to be a very good SS, but they have others that can do that to varying degrees. Put another way Mayer's value comes from being a guy that projects to be an OPS+ 120 guy with good SS D. There's a world where Mikey Romero and/or Franklin Arias do that.

I agree with all of this. And I love Mayer too, but the other three would be untouchable for me. A package of Abreu and Mayer would seem to be very attractive and I think could bring back the kind of young starter they're looking for.

 

[chawson]

If 4 years of control of Casas is on the table for Guerrero + ?, why wouldn't Toronto consider that? They're not resigning Guerrero after this year. I'm sure his personality would be abrasive, but I'd be on board with taking a flyer on Manoah as the additional piece, let Bailey get his hands on him and try to fix him?

If you think Casas’s personality is abrasive, wait’ll you see Manoah’s.

It's going to be an exciting offseason and I think this team will be excellent next year. But it’s really hard to predict.

My hot take is that last winter’s “full throttle” comment was meant to be applied over the next few years, over Breslow’s tenure and the next wave of prospects, but everyone assumed it meant immediately.

Here are some basic principles I support, though some are in conflict.

- QO O’Neill and Pivetta (neither will accept but it’s fine if they do).
- Offer Pivetta something in the 3/$60 range
- Story is the 2025 shortstop.
- Try hard to sign Soto, get into absurd $500-600M territory if you have to.
- The L/R handedness issue isn't a big deal.
- Sign Fried not Burnes but don't go over $175M.
- Campbell is untouchable. Anthony just short of untouchable. Of the four, trade Mayer, but only for an equivalent prospect or value. Regardless, no Mayer promotion until September 2025 at the earliest.
- Avoid the Seattle arms, deal with Pittsburgh.
- Trading Casas makes no sense, try again to extend him.
- Don’t hesitate to trade Duran for equivalent value.
- Yoshida is an asset, keep him unless it’s part of a deal you can’t turn down.
- Don't build around Rafaela but don't assume he's a utility man either, if that makes sense.
- Clear a lane for full-time PAs for Anthony.
- Don't be afraid to trade Grissom.
- Try Whitlock in the rotation again, if that's what he wants to do.
- Re-sign Martin to pair with Hendriks in the late innings.
- Slaten is the closer. Unless...is Slaten a starter?
- Booser, Penrod and Weissert are all part of next year’s pen (or shuttle). Bernardino looks like he may be out of options, so I'd look to break camp with him.
- Move on from Winckowski.
- Explore a little make-right deal with Yoán Moncada?

 

[simplicio]

- Sign Fried not Burnes but don't go over $175M.
- Avoid the Seattle arms, deal with Pittsburgh.
- Explore a little make-right deal with Yoán Moncada?

I get concerns about Burnes' declining K rate, but he's been really consistently good through that. If he gets a deal like he's the 2021 guy then sure, that's overpriced, but I don't see much not to like about his performance in the three years since then. What do you like better in Fried?

Skenes obviously isn't going anywhere, so what does the rest of the PIT rotation offer over Woo, Gilbert and Kirby?

Moncada can't stay healthy and I don't know where he'd even play here. Why?

 

[nighthob]

- Campbell is untouchable. Anthony just short of untouchable. Of the four, trade Mayer, but only for an equivalent prospect or value. Regardless, no Mayer promotion until September 2025 at the earliest.
- Avoid the Seattle arms, deal with Pittsburgh.
- Trading Casas makes no sense, try again to extend him.
- Clear a lane for full-time PAs for Anthony.

Anthony's underlying batted ball metrics are too good to deal, he's untouchable for me, so I agree with that last point. Every time they throw better pitching at the Emperor he finds another gear. I also agree with your point about the Pirates having a better pitching program. As for Casas, I like the sentiment, but I am generally against extending 1B unless they really really hit. I think the guys you extend are SP, up the middle guys and RF. LF/1B/DH need to be taking really team friendly deals or be OPS+ 150+ level hitters for me to think about it.

Skenes obviously isn't going anywhere, so what does the rest of the PIT rotation offer over Woo, Gilbert and Kirby?

I think the implication is that the Pirates have done a good job developing pitching while the Mariners guys might just be products of pitching in a pitcher's park.

 

[simplicio]

I think the Mariners have been really good at developing guys and get an extreme benefit from their park. I do think it's masking something for Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller, but the three guys I mentioned have been stellar in away games as well.

PIT does a little masking of its own, too: it's the third-most HR suppressant park, something Jones and Keller both appear to benefit from substantially with away HR rates that border on concerning.

 

[Montana Fan]

I posted this in the Dream of 2025 instead of in here by mistake:

I think if there's anybody on the active roster who is likely to be moved it's Abreu, not Casas. Wilyer is one of my favourite players on the team, but I think he has a few things working against him - he just cannot hit LHP and needs a RHH caddy to platoon with. We also have Anthony who seems like he's going to be the RF of the future and we have Campbell whose likely home will be LF with Duran in CF. Rafaela is still there as an OF option/utility guy as well.

Casas has at least shown an ability to handle LH pitching and we don't really have another 1B ready unless Devers moves across the diamond, or another 1B is acquired (like Vlad). I think that Abreu and Masa will be two guys that will be shopped this offseason. I think people are on the right track with the idea of trading for Vlad, but instead of it being Casas going to Toronto, I could see it being Wilyer and there being a corresponding move to get Masa off the roster. Vlad can move between 1B, 3B, DH, Casas can move between 1B and DH, and Devers can move between 3B and DH.

Can’t a fella dream? The outfield as you laid it out with Devers - Story - Grissom - Casas across the infield. Would love to see that group healthy and playing together on June 1.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Can’t a fella dream?

Dreams are down the hall, second door on the left
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/a-dream-of-2025-what-is-going-right-and-looks-like-the-sox-can-build-on.42412/page-20#post-6349922

 

[Montana Fan]

Dreams are down the hall, second door on the left
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/a-dream-of-2025-what-is-going-right-and-looks-like-the-sox-can-build-on.42412/page-20#post-6349922

You’re right, it’s a prediction for the 2025 lineup taking the field On June 1.

 

[nighthob]

I think the Mariners have been really good at developing guys and get an extreme benefit from their park. I do think it's masking something for Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller, but the three guys I mentioned have been stellar in away games as well.

PIT does a little masking of its own, too: it's the third-most HR suppressant park, something Jones and Keller both appear to benefit from substantially with away HR rates that border on concerning.

The Mariners ballpark suppresses everything. Fenway is an extreme hitters park, even though it suppresses HRs. PNC Park is middle of the road, it dampens HR production, but other park factors show it mostly neutral.

 

[chrisfont9]

Absolutely not. When Roman Anthony hits the ball it dies screaming. Hitters like Anthony or Campbell don't come around very often. Boston has the good fortune to have drafted both of them. Pretty much anyone else should be on that outbound shuttle.

To be brutally frank, as much as I love Mayer, he'd be the guy (from the Big 4) that I'd move given that they have Mikey Romero and Franklin Arias coming up behind him. He's going to be a very good SS, but they have others that can do that to varying degrees. Put another way Mayer's value comes from being a guy that projects to be an OPS+ 120 guy with good SS D. There's a world where Mikey Romero and/or Franklin Arias do that.

Hm I would trade Duran first, you’d be selling way high on him. If someone pays a ransom for Mayer, ok, but I’d prefer to wait, especially since the outfield logjam is more immediate.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Refwsnyder reconsiders retirement talk
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/09/red-sox-veteran-flirted-with-retirement-but-is-now-expected-back-in-25.html

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

He must have met with a financial planner.

 

[Rasputin]

People are excited. When was the last time we had four guys of this caliber all coming up at once? Xander, Mookie, Benintendi, and Devers were staggered.
I agree we shouldn't hand anyone their job outright, but this year saw them hand the keys to Abreu, Ceddanne, and Grissom all at once (and his stewards)- guys with varying pedigrees, some better than others.

And who is really blocked? I see them competing for these jobs, not pencilled in. Teel's upside is better than Wong's chances of repeating his offensive success. Campbell can duke it out with Grissom in spring training. And Ceddanne has been so horrid offensively, I don't see how he could be blocking Anthony if the latter plays like he can.

I think they all have a chance. I think they're all competing for a spot in spring training. I think they're all going to be up at some point in 2025. I'm as excited for these guys as a crack-addled jackrabbit.

I think this is going to be the biggest influx of top minor league talent to the big club in a long time, maybe ever.

I just don't think it's remotely likely that more than one of these guys is on the opening day roster.

I think the year that starts 5 days after the world series (or whatever) is going to be one of the most fascinating in the history of the Red Sox.

 

[nighthob]

Mayer is going to need more time, but I agree on the other three. Boston is going to have to fight to keep them off the opening day roster.

 

[pjheff]

Mayer is going to need more time, but I agree on the other three. Boston is going to have to fight to keep them off the opening day roster.

I think all will have an opportunity to win a job and be competing in a dynamic for middle infield and outfield roles. Some (Rafaela and Grissom) could conceivably lose out and up in reserve roles while others (Mayer, Anthony, Campbell, and Teel) are either going to earn starting jobs or return to the minors. Where do you see Campbell playing? 2B? LF?

 

[nighthob]

Mayer reached Worcester, but didn’t play and still needs to work on that hitch in his swing, and hitting LHP/offspeed stuff.

 

[pjheff]

Mayer reached Worcester, but didn’t play and still needs to work on that hitch in his swing, and hitting LHP/offspeed stuff.

I don’t disagree, but I still think he has an outside chance to win a middle infield job with a strong offseason and Spring Training. He’s just the least likely of the bunch who will have to beat out Grissom, Campbell, Rafaela, and Anthony for a starting job.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

If you think Casas’s personality is abrasive, wait’ll you see Manoah’s.

It's going to be an exciting offseason and I think this team will be excellent next year. But it’s really hard to predict.

My hot take is that last winter’s “full throttle” comment was meant to be applied over the next few years, over Breslow’s tenure and the next wave of prospects, but everyone assumed it meant immediately.

Here are some basic principles I support, though some are in conflict.

- QO O’Neill and Pivetta (neither will accept but it’s fine if they do).
- Offer Pivetta something in the 3/$60 range
- Story is the 2025 shortstop.
- Try hard to sign Soto, get into absurd $500-600M territory if you have to.
- The L/R handedness issue isn't a big deal.
- Sign Fried not Burnes but don't go over $175M.
- Campbell is untouchable. Anthony just short of untouchable. Of the four, trade Mayer, but only for an equivalent prospect or value. Regardless, no Mayer promotion until September 2025 at the earliest.
- Avoid the Seattle arms, deal with Pittsburgh.
- Trading Casas makes no sense, try again to extend him.
- Don’t hesitate to trade Duran for equivalent value.
- Yoshida is an asset, keep him unless it’s part of a deal you can’t turn down.
- Don't build around Rafaela but don't assume he's a utility man either, if that makes sense.
- Clear a lane for full-time PAs for Anthony.
- Don't be afraid to trade Grissom.
- Try Whitlock in the rotation again, if that's what he wants to do.
- Re-sign Martin to pair with Hendriks in the late innings.
- Slaten is the closer. Unless...is Slaten a starter?
- Booser, Penrod and Weissert are all part of next year’s pen (or shuttle). Bernardino looks like he may be out of options, so I'd look to break camp with him.
- Move on from Winckowski.
- Explore a little make-right deal with Yoán Moncada?

I phrased my post poorly. I wasn't implying anything about Casas' personality. I was stating that Monoah has an abrasive personality.

 

[chawson]

I phrased my post poorly. I wasn't implying anything about Casas' personality. I was stating that Monoah has an abrasive personality.

Ah, my mistake then, I misread you. Yeah, Manoah seems dislikable from what I’ve seen.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Anthony's underlying batted ball metrics are too good to deal, he's untouchable for me, so I agree with that last point. Every time they throw better pitching at the Emperor he finds another gear.

Totally agree. Also - and this might or might not fall under the guise of "underlying metrics" but I think of that more along the lines of batted ball data only - the fact that he displays virtually no split makes him in some ways "uniquely untouchable" in this current iteration of the Boston Red Sox. Campbell is close to that status for me to. (Flip side is if Seattle called and said "Gilbert or Kirby for Campbell", I'd do it. On Anthony, I don't know that I would...)

Also, that's a great nickname. Not sure if it's from your or someone else, but I like it.


As to @Rasputin point about people asking too much of Anthony, Campbell and Teel, specifically, I think a lot of that has to do with the OP of the thread being to look specifically at what is in the organization. I find it highly unlikely that all these players remain in the organization on opening day 2025, but looking at JUST what is here now I'd far rather see:

C - Wong (Teel); 1b - Casas; 2b - Cambell/Grissom; 3b - Devers; SS - Rafaela; LF - Anthony / Abreu; CF - Duran; RF - Abreu / Anthony; DH - Grissom/Campbell than any other permutations. Regardless of how (un)realisitc it is that the position players are made up of ONLY guys already in the organization.

Anthony and Campbell I do think should be up, mostly because I don't think they're being challenged (and thus won't improve) at all in AAA. Teel (and certainly Mayer), I think both need some more time down there. Teel was (at least in my opinion) quite good for his first taste of AAA ball, but he certainly could benefit from more seasoning. Anthony and Campbell showed no hint of being challenged at AAA whatsoever (much like Rafaela and Abreu going into 2024), and the talent level at AAA cannot force those players to adjust or grow.

 

[Sox Pride]

I've been thinking a trade for Rooker+Miller for Yoshida+PainfulProspects+ money might be a way forward.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I've been thinking a trade for Rooker+Miller for Yoshida+PainfulProspects+ money might be a way forward.

It's been said before, but the A's would be better off dealing them separately to maximize their return.

 

[chawson]

Wilyer Abreu was +18 defensive runs saved in right field over 918 innings, tops among the position in MLB.

View: https://twitter.com/tjstats/status/1841123081315664169?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDA


Abreu has seemed to me like the least painful player to trade from our outfielder surplus but I wonder if we’re better off keeping him.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Abreu is interesting; I really don’t know what to make of him. His numbers seem better than you would think just based on watching him play, I think. It didn’t feel like he had a 3 win season. Ultimately, I think his inability to hit LH make him a relatively poor fit on the current roster; it’s difficult for he and Yoshida to coexist. And long term, you’ve got Anthony. I wouldn’t give him away though; curious how much value he would have in the marketplace, because on paper it seems like it should be a lot.

 

[simplicio]

While I love his defense in a tough position, I think the potential for Anthony's bat to eclipse him as a total package is pretty high. The platoon thing really does hurt him.

 

[chawson]

Abreu is interesting; I really don’t know what to make of him. His numbers seem better than you would think just based on watching him play, I think. It didn’t feel like he had a 3 win season. Ultimately, I think his inability to hit LH make him a relatively fit on the current roster; it’s difficult for he and Yoshida to coexist. I wouldn’t give him away though; curious how much value he would have in the marketplace, because on paper it seems like it should be a lot.

Maybe, and probably true about the redundancy with Yoshida, I'm not ready to close the book on him (or Yoshida) hitting lefties down the road. I wonder if Abreu's platoon usage had more to do with the presence of Refsnyder, arguably the game's best short-side platoon hitter, than anything else.

The Sox broke Jarren Duran in similarly and he's eventually learned to handle lefties pretty well.

2021 - .243 expected wOBA (28 PA)
2022 - .212 (42 PA)
2023 - .277 (49 PA)
2024 - .314 (230 PA)

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I think it’s a lot more difficult to break in a guy like Abreu against LH when the team is already so poor against them. You can manage a lineup with a few guys like that, probably. But not too many.

 

[chawson]

I think it’s a lot more difficult to break in a guy like Abreu against LH when the team is already so poor against them. You can manage a lineup with a few guys like that, probably. But not too many.

Are they that poor against LHP? They put up a 101 wRC+ against left-handed pitching last year, good for 14th in MLB.

Edit: Admittedly, a good chunk of that is O'Neill, whose production will need replacing.

 

[simplicio]

Maybe, and probably true about the redundancy with Yoshida, I'm not ready to close the book on him (or Yoshida) hitting lefties down the road. I wonder if Abreu's platoon usage had more to do with the presence of Refsnyder, arguably the game's best short-side platoon hitter, than anything else.

The Sox broke Jarren Duran in similarly and he's eventually learned to handle lefties pretty well.

2021 - .243 expected wOBA (28 PA)
2022 - .212 (42 PA)
2023 - .277 (49 PA)
2024 - .314 (230 PA)

Duran was fine in the minors against LHP though. Abreu has been on a downward trend with his splits his whole career.

 

[simplicio]

Just saw Reese McGuire elected minor league FA, so he won't be part of the picture as a stop gap until Teel is ready.

 

[moondog80]

 

[grimshaw]

Bloom was a mixed bag trying to improve the defense. For all his faults, he did bring in very good right fielders, Trevor Story and developed Duran in centerfield. Then he undid a ton of it by bringing in Yoshida, and having him, Casas and Turner on the same roster. Who knows when the internal solution is to move Devers to 1st, but the defense should be improved up the middle and at catcher (by default). The outfield should be good for a long time as well. There isn't any current way to improve the infield corners.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Bloom was a mixed bag trying to improve the defense. For all his faults, he did bring in very good right fielders, Trevor Story and developed Duran in centerfield. Then he undid a ton of it by bringing in Yoshida, and having him, Casas and Turner on the same roster. Who knows when the internal solution is to move Devers to 1st, but the defense should be improved up the middle and at catcher (by default). The outfield should be good for a long time as well. There isn't any current way to improve the infield corners.

Casas started to really improve through the course of the season in '23. I can't really comment on limited innings in '24. Didn't Devers also just have one of his best years at 3B defensively? SS and 2B were bad, but that's really it.... but they had absolutely zero consistency.... and from what I could read, it wasn't range (which looked tremendous) it was mental errors (which to me is coaching, managing) and can be improved on with consistent players at those positions, along, of course with a better manager that keeps his players heads in the game.
OF Defense was outstanding and if there's any defensive metrics that say otherwise they're just wrong. Period.
The defense should be much better next year with Story/Grissom/Rafaela getting consistent appearances and health.
The OF defense again.... how are you improving it?

 

[grimshaw]

Casas started to really improve through the course of the season in '23. I can't really comment on limited innings in '24. Didn't Devers also just have one of his best years at 3B defensively? SS and 2B were bad, but that's really it.... but they had absolutely zero consistency.... and from what I could read, it wasn't range (which looked tremendous) it was mental errors (which to me is coaching, managing) and can be improved on with consistent players at those positions, along, of course with a better manager that keeps his players heads in the game.
OF Defense was outstanding and if there's any defensive metrics that say otherwise they're just wrong. Period.
The defense should be much better next year with Story/Grissom/Rafaela getting consistent appearances and health.
The OF defense again.... how are you improving it?

Devers was dead last at a -9 in DRS, 4 fewer than 2nd worst at 3rd and 197th in the majors. A few guys were +10 so that is a very large gap in defensive value. The eye test really doesn't matter because he also had 9 fielding errors and by defensive efficiency is terrible at converting balls in play into outs. The one thing he did do is cut down on throwing errors. His range is not going to get better as he ages, so he is pretty unlikely to suddenly be even average. I see him as sort of a Hanley Ramirez when they eventually had to move him off of short. My overall point isn't that they need to immediately move him off, but instead that we can complain about the defense all we want, but coaching him up isn't going to do anything anymore. It's the teams fault if they don't feel as though the bad outweighs the good and it ends up a net loss.

Casas may have improved, but he's never going to have much range with that body and has never projected as close to average.

I said nothing about needing to improve the OF defense? Replacing O'Neill with Anthony makes it even stronger.

 

[moondog80]

Bloom was a mixed bag trying to improve the defense. For all his faults, he did bring in very good right fielders, Trevor Story and developed Duran in centerfield. Then he undid a ton of it by bringing in Yoshida, and having him, Casas and Turner on the same roster. Who knows when the internal solution is to move Devers to 1st, but the defense should be improved up the middle and at catcher (by default). The outfield should be good for a long time as well. There isn't any current way to improve the infield corners.

Bloom was dealing with many holes to fill and he didn't have the budget to fill all of them with guys who excelled at both fielding and hitting. So he went where the market led him.

I'll also add that Story's injuries have had a cascading effect on the defense the past few years.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Devers was dead last at a -9 in DRS, 4 fewer than 2nd worst at 3rd and 197th in the majors. A few guys were +10 so that is a very large gap in defensive value. The eye test really doesn't matter because he also had 9 fielding errors and by defensive efficiency is terrible at converting balls in play into outs. The one thing he did do is cut down on throwing errors. His range is not going to get better as he ages, so he is pretty unlikely to suddenly be even average. I see him as sort of a Hanley Ramirez when they eventually had to move him off of short. My overall point isn't that they need to immediately move him off, but instead that we can complain about the defense all we want, but coaching him up isn't going to do anything anymore. It's the teams fault if they don't feel as though the bad outweighs the good and it ends up a net loss.

Casas may have improved, but he's never going to have much range with that body and has never projected as close to average.

I said nothing about needing to improve the OF defense? Replacing O'Neill with Anthony makes it even stronger.

One potential fix then would be to, instead of figuring out a trade for Guerrero- which wouldn't improve defense- would be to sign Bregman then and move Raffy to 1B/DH duties shared with Casas. Adding a potent RH bat there.

Duran
Devers
Bregman
Casas
O'Neill
Abreu
Story
Grissom
Wong/Teel

I dunno.... lineup quickly turned more RH heavy, but Rafaela opens it up to be more flexible to sub in for Abreu if they have already decided he's a platoon guy. Anthony instead of O'Neill (doesn't have handed-split)....

 

[grimshaw]

Bloom was dealing with many holes to fill and he didn't have the budget to fill all of them with guys who excelled at both fielding and hitting. So he went where the market led him.

I'll also add that Story's injuries have had a cascading effect on the defense the past few years.

I don't disagree, but Yoshida almost certainly could have been had for fewer years and a lower AAV based on comments around the industry, so some of that budget was misspent.

 

[moondog80]

I don't disagree, but Yoshida almost certainly could have been had for fewer years and a lower AAV based on comments around the industry, so some of that budget was misspent.

Sure. Bloom was far from perfect.

 

[bressoud]

I agree with all of this. And I love Mayer too, but the other three would be untouchable for me. A package of Abreu and Mayer would seem to be very attractive and I think could bring back the kind of young starter they're looking for.

Long-time lurker; nervous first-time poster. SEA has six quality starters and no LH hitting. A Mayer/Abreu combo should get back Woo or Bryce Miller (BTV says that's an overpay even for Kirby or Gilbert). Or, given Kirby/Gilbert are about to get expensive and SEA doesn't want to increase payroll much, how 'bout Masa/Hamilton for Castillo? He's still very good and "cost controlled," even if the cost is $73M for the next three years.

 

[simplicio]

Woo/Kirby/Gilbert I'm all for, Miller and Castillo both look like a lot of their performance may be tied up in their home park. Castillo also has a no trade agreement to navigate.

 

[YTF]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I like Triston Casas and understand not wanting to trade him. The primary issue for me is handedness and Guerrero largely solves that issue. Other Righties that would be improvements over what we currently have (Just going down the list of top 50 2024 WAR leaders):

The primary issue for me is giving up 4 years of a controlled Casas for what may well be a one year rental as the Sox "window" IMO is just beginning to open.