2025 lineup

[grimshaw]

What are people's thoughts on next season's lineup if they make no outside personnel changes? This can include bringing back O'Neill on a QO.
Feel free to comment on what you think they'll do afterwards.

Catcher - Wong/Teel.
1b - Casas
2b - Grissom
SS - Story
3b - Devers
LF - Campbell
CF - Duran
RF - Abreu
DH - Yoshida

Bench - Back up catcher, Rafaela, Hamilton, and Gonzalez

Predictions on what they'll actually do:
Acquisition: Someone like Yasmani Grandal. They'll need a competent back up plan. I'm 50/50 Teel makes it out of spring training, but they absolutely need to improve the defense. A right handed platoon outfield bat. Hopefully Refsnyder.
Trades: Abreu and/or Yoshida to make room for Campbell and Anthony. Ideally it's Yoshida and they rotate the DH position. I put Campbell in LF for lineup balance, but the better defensive alignment is probably with Anthony instead.
Rafaela would be treated like Marwin Gonzalez where he's not in the lineup everyday.

My dream scenario would be Devers to 1st, Casas to DH. Grissom to 3rd and Campbell to 2b, to best improve the defense but that won't happen.

 

[Max Power]

Over the last couple of days Breslow has made it clear he thinks the lineup is too left handed and they have a glut of middle infielders and outfielders. Those things are obvious to anyone watching, but it's nice to hear from him. I think there are going to be some trades that shake things up fairly significantly from where the roster is today. Unlike the free agent market, those types of things are much harder to guess in advance.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

For the record, I refuse to believe they won't make some significant roster changes. It might end up playing out that way, but simply accepting that at the start of the off-season and thus having nothing interesting to talk about it just untenable.

However, for what they have I'd like to see:

CF - Duran (L)
2b - Grissom / Story (R)
3b - Devers (L)
1b - Casas (L)
C - Wong (R)
RF - Abreu (L)
LF - Anthony (L)
SS - Rafaela (R)
DH - Campbell (R)

Bench - Story (R), Yoshida (L), Gonzalez, Back up c, back up OF.

1) I fully expect Story to be hurt again, and even if healthy, he doesn't look like an effective MLB bat any longer. He can still play D, and good D players that can't hit should not block Grissom or Campbell. I hope he has to earn the PT, not the other way around.
2) Yoshida is a decent hitter with no power that can only hit RHPs. Not exactly a lost art. But he isn't going to fetch much in a trade, so he's fine as insurance. But I don't want to have Anthony or Campbell in Pawtucket so that he can get at bats NOR do I want to stunt their development by platooning them for a "no power, decent bat, DH only."
3) Gonzalez - fine as a utility guy.
4) Ideally Teel is up sooner than later, but until he's going to be playing close to every day, whatever.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Feels like we should play someone at SS.

 

[scottyno]

1) I fully expect Story to be hurt again, and even if healthy, he doesn't look like an effective MLB bat any longer. He can still play D, and good D players that can't hit should not block Grissom or Campbell. I hope he has to earn the PT, not the other way around.

He has a 126 ops+ in the 16 games since he returned. Sure it's only 16 games, but what exactly doesn't look like an effective MLB bat?

 

[ColdSoxPack]

How do we feel about Mayer on the team for when Grissom/Story/Devers break down?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

He has a 126 ops+ in the 16 games since he returned. Sure it's only 16 games, but what exactly doesn't look like an effective MLB bat?

The (I'm approximating) 92 OPS+ he has in the 585 games in his career as a Red Sox prior to these past 16.



He's approached Sale level for me. Maybe he'll be good and healthy. It'd be great if he was. I'm just done banking on it. I'm not saying to "cut" him, but I think he has to earn the PT back, not have it be assumed.

 

[scottyno]

The (I'm approximating) 92 OPS+ he has in the 585 games in his career as a Red Sox prior to these past 16.



He's approached Sale level for me. Maybe he'll be good and healthy. It'd be great if he was. I'm just done banking on it. I'm not saying to "cut" him, but I think he has to earn the PT back, not have it be assumed.

When he's played he's been good, 3.5-4 war player over the 161 games he's played with the Sox, this year alone he's been worth almost a full win in the 24 games he's played. Assuming he's healthy in camp there's no way he's going to be asked to "earn" anything, he's going to be the starting 2b or SS

 

[azsoxpatsfan]

C-Wong/Teel
1b-Casas
2b-Campbell/Grissom
SS-Story/Ceddane
3b-Devers
Outfield: Duran, Ceddane, Wilyer, Anthony

DH can be rotating with guys in the outfield and middle infield filling in. This will change because some guys will have to be traded to get pitching back, but it’s an exciting lineup

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

When he's played he's been good, 3.5-4 war player over the 161 games he's played with the Sox, this year alone he's been worth almost a full win in the 24 games he's played. Assuming he's healthy in camp there's no way he's going to be asked to "earn" anything, he's going to be the starting 2b or SS

For what it's worth, I actually agree with the bolded. I think Story will be the starting SS going into camp. Mostly because, I don't think it's tenable to not clear some of the approximately 4,000 LHH that can only hit RHP that the Sox have procured over the past several seasons.

Most realistically I think it looks more like:

LF - Duran (L)
DH - "Teoscar Santander Jr" (R) (As in signing one of Hernandez, Santander or Gurriel Jr)
3b - Devers (L)
1b - Casas (L)
C - Wong (R)
SS - Story (R)
RF - Anthony (L)
2b - Cambell (R)
CF - Rafaela (R)

Bench - Yoshida (I don't think anyone will take much of his contract, so he stays), Grissom, Back up C, Back up OF.

Then when Story gets hurt Rafaela goes back to SS, Duran to CF, "Gurriel Jr" to LF and Grissom / Yoshida platoon at DH.



But as to what is in the organization at this minute:

1) I don't think having either Anthony or Campbell in AAA does anything for their development any longer (similar to Rafaela and Abreu this past year).
2) I don't want to see them on the bench in order to give at bats to Story or Yoshida.
3) I think that Abreu almost has to be traded because nobody would take Story or Yoshida's contact whereas Abreu probably gets you something pretty damn nice and there is no way they will (or should) trade Anthony. If I thought they could trade Story and or Yoshida, I'd advocate for that. I don't think they can.



But with only factoring in what is presently in the organization and not factoring in any trades or outside moves, I just don't think that the Boston Red Sox in 2025 are the best version of what they can be, either for 2025 or building for the future (what is presently in the organization) if they continue to give the lion's share of at bats to Story and Yoshida at the expense of MLB at bats for Anthony, Rafaela, Campbell and Abreu.

 

[lexrageorge]

Yoshida, I agree, most of his at bats are not worth the time wasted.

Story is healthy and is tearing the ball. He is their best SS.

 

[simplicio]

Yoshida, I agree, most of his at bats are not worth the time wasted.

Weird thing to say about a guy with a 115 wrc+. He's a good hitter.

 

[chrisfont9]

For what it's worth, I actually agree with the bolded. I think Story will be the starting SS going into camp. Mostly because, I don't think it's tenable to not clear some of the approximately 4,000 LHH that can only hit RHP that the Sox have procured over the past several seasons.

Most realistically I think it looks more like:

LF - Duran (L)
DH - "Teoscar Santander Jr" (R) (As in signing one of Hernandez, Santander or Gurriel Jr)
3b - Devers (L)
1b - Casas (L)
C - Wong (R)
SS - Story (R)
RF - Anthony (L)
2b - Cambell (R)
CF - Rafaela (R)

Bench - Yoshida (I don't think anyone will take much of his contract, so he stays), Grissom, Back up C, Back up OF.

Then when Story gets hurt Rafaela goes back to SS, Duran to CF, "Gurriel Jr" to LF and Grissom / Yoshida platoon at DH.



But as to what is in the organization at this minute:

1) I don't think having either Anthony or Campbell in AAA does anything for their development any longer (similar to Rafaela and Abreu this past year).
2) I don't want to see them on the bench in order to give at bats to Story or Yoshida.
3) I think that Abreu almost has to be traded because nobody would take Story or Yoshida's contact whereas Abreu probably gets you something pretty damn nice and there is no way they will (or should) trade Anthony. If I thought they could trade Story and or Yoshida, I'd advocate for that. I don't think they can.



But with only factoring in what is presently in the organization and not factoring in any trades or outside moves, I just don't think that the Boston Red Sox in 2025 are the best version of what they can be, either for 2025 or building for the future (what is presently in the organization) if they continue to give the lion's share of at bats to Story and Yoshida at the expense of MLB at bats for Anthony, Rafaela, Campbell and Abreu.

I so can't wait for spring training, I'm not even kidding a little. (Subject to change if... anyway.) The Grissom/Campbell situation will be very interesting as well as the potential outfield stuff. Am I remembering correctly that Bres was talking up Abreu? That could be sincere, or could be a little bit of marketing. Word of caution though, they might not want to just clear the spot for a guy in AAA. Even (outdated reference alert) Lynn and Rice debuted in Aug-Sept '74 before being inserted into the lineup in '75. My wild guess is that they will wait on an Abreu move to see Anthony face ML pitching, and maybe something else happens first where you're glad you kept Wilyer. E.g. Mariners make a godfather offer for Duran (I can dream).

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Weird thing to say about a guy with a 115 wrc+. He's a good hitter.

And unlike most of the team, he doesn’t strike out much

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Question: is there a team that could use a LH Bat like Yoshida, and maybe has an extra RH Bat, of similar talent to Yoshida?

I’m wondering if a “handedness” trade makes sense. Even if we have to pay half of Yoshida’s salary. He just doesn’t make much sense for this team.

C: A Wong/Teel platoon makes perfect sense if Teel is ready and we don’t need “personal catchers”

1B: Casas

2B: Grissom or Campbell

SS: Story until Mayer is ready

3B: Devers

LF: Anthony, hopefully

CF: Duran

RF: Abreu

DH: Any of the above, with one of Grissom/Campbell, plus Rafaela rotating around giving people days off.

I don’t really see much room for Yoshida here, other than as a pinch hitter. Once Mayer is ready, Story joins Yoshida as something of a wet blanket.

 

[Ale Xander]

1. Duran LF
2. Devers 3B
3. Story SS
4. Casas 1B
5. Anthony DH
6. Wong C
7. Grissom 2B
8. Abreu RF
9. Rafaela CF

 

[chrisfont9]

Question: is there a team that could use a LH Bat like Yoshida, and maybe has an extra RH Bat, of similar talent to Yoshida?

I’m wondering if a “handedness” trade makes sense. Even if we have to pay half of Yoshida’s salary. He just doesn’t make much sense for this team.

C: A Wong/Teel platoon makes perfect sense if Teel is ready and we don’t need “personal catchers”

1B: Casas

2B: Grissom or Campbell

SS: Story until Mayer is ready

3B: Devers

LF: Anthony, hopefully

CF: Duran

RF: Abreu

DH: Any of the above, with one of Grissom/Campbell, plus Rafaela rotating around giving people days off.

I don’t really see much room for Yoshida here, other than as a pinch hitter. Once Mayer is ready, Story joins Yoshida as something of a wet blanket.

You may be underrating Story's role as a de facto captain. His playing role could change but being kind of a sunk cost they might want him around. This is especially true of all the kids who spent part of the offseason at his workouts. They're gonna need real leadership at the player level.

 

[simplicio]

Having a hard time engaging with the premise of this thread. The only way Abreu is still here opening day is if 1+ of Anthony/Campbell are gone or Breslow has flat out failed to make a trade. Masa seems pretty likely to be gone too, given his comments.

 

[nvalvo]

Masa seems pretty likely to be gone too, given his comments.

I missed those. Link? Paraphrase?

 

[simplicio]

Breslow admitted the burgeoning young core gives them a sustainable pipeline of talent, but noted the need to balance that out.

“I think we have seen the ability to be competitive in the AL East with a young group that’s really exciting, athletic, really dynamic,” he said. “And we have to figure out what the right pieces are after that. It is likely that some of that comes via trade because there’s only so many middle infielders, left-handed hitting outfielders that we can play at any given time. In a perfect world, you kind of stagger the matriculation off of your system, but we have to deal with the realities that we currently have, which is, I think, there are a lot of players that will impact the major leagues in the future.”

That sounds like Abreu for sure, maybe Masa too? Maybe "pretty likely" is strong, let's say substantial possibility or something.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5795091/2024/09/25/craig-breslow-red-sox-season-assessment?source=user-shared-article

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

I am under the assumption that they will trade guys that were major contributors this year and potentially one of the big 4. With that being said, my assumptions are as follows:

• They will try to address handedness in an OF slot or DH slot. This could be as simple as finding a trade partner for Yoshida and resigning O'Neil. I also wouldn't be surprised if Abreu is dealt.
• I would expect them to bring in a non-roster invitee to compete with Kyle Teel for the backup catcher job. A reunion with McGuire or an equivalent catcher wouldn't surprise me.
• Mayer will start the season in AAA. He's the easiest guy to delay and get to Super 2 status.
• Anthony will be given every opportunity to win a spot on the opening day roster. He may also get extended in the offseason or just after the season starts.
• Campbell, Grissom, and other internal candidates will compete for the 2B job in spring training.
• They will trade for a front line starter. My bet is Crochet for Abreu + ?
• They will sign Nick Pivetta or an equivalent #3 level starter.
• Cooper Criswell will be traded because he's out of options.
• They will spend at $25-$30M AAV in the bullpen.

Some more wild predictions/hopes

• I think exploring a Casas / Guerrero deal makes sense, but I also think it's the Red Sox that turn down an even swap. You would also have to assume at least an 11/330 extension for Guerrero.
• Rather than exploit the trade assets they have, they push all in for Corbin Burnes (perhaps paired with a Vladi trade and sign) in an effort to make a 2011-level splash.

 

[nvalvo]

Breslow admitted the burgeoning young core gives them a sustainable pipeline of talent, but noted the need to balance that out.

“I think we have seen the ability to be competitive in the AL East with a young group that’s really exciting, athletic, really dynamic,” he said. “And we have to figure out what the right pieces are after that. It is likely that some of that comes via trade because there’s only so many middle infielders, left-handed hitting outfielders that we can play at any given time. In a perfect world, you kind of stagger the matriculation off of your system, but we have to deal with the realities that we currently have, which is, I think, there are a lot of players that will impact the major leagues in the future.”

That sounds like Abreu for sure, maybe Masa too? Maybe "pretty likely" is strong, let's say substantial possibility or something.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5795091/2024/09/25/craig-breslow-red-sox-season-assessment?source=user-shared-article

Oh, on first glance, I thought "his comments" meant Masa's comments, as if he was trying to shoot his way out of town. That seemed pretty out of character to me, although I admittedly have much less of a sense of Yoshida as a person than the English- or Spanish-speaking players.

 

[TrotNixonRing]

OPENING DAY LINEUP
L Anthony RF/LF
R Campbell 3B/2B
L Duran/Abreu LF/RF
L Devers DH
R Story SS
L Casas 1B
L Teel C / R Wong C
R Grissom/Hamilton/Romy 2B/3B
R Rafaela CF

BENCH
C Teel/Wong
IF Romy
IF Hamilton
OF Refsnyder/O’Neill/TBD

Yoshida and Duran or Abreu traded

OR

OPENING DAY LINEUP
L Anthony LF
R Campbell 3B/2B
L Duran CF
L Devers DH
R Story SS
L Casas 1B
L Abreu RF
L Teel C / R Wong C
R Grissom/Hamilton/Romy 2B/3B

BENCH
C Teel/Wong
IF Romy
IF Hamilton
OF Rafaela (active 10th man)

Yoshida traded


Mayer hopefully pushing for playing time as season progresses with question marks at all three non-1B IF positions

trade none of the big 4. Yoshida and prospects outside the big 4 traded for pitching help. Free agent dollars into pitching help. This is a good lineup with good depth and they can add a piece if opportunity presents but they don’t need to.

 

[RedOctober3829]

OPENING DAY LINEUP
L Anthony RF/LF
R Campbell 3B/2B
L Duran/Abreu LF/RF
L Devers DH
R Story SS
L Casas 1B
L Teel C / R Wong C
R Grissom/Hamilton/Romy 2B/3B
R Rafaela CF

BENCH
C Teel/Wong
IF Romy
IF Hamilton
OF Refsnyder/O’Neill/TBD

Yoshida and Duran or Abreu traded

OR

OPENING DAY LINEUP
L Anthony LF
R Campbell 3B/2B
L Duran CF
L Devers DH
R Story SS
L Casas 1B
L Abreu RF
L Teel C / R Wong C
R Grissom/Hamilton/Romy 2B/3B

BENCH
C Teel/Wong
IF Romy
IF Hamilton
OF Rafaela (active 10th man)

Yoshida traded


Mayer hopefully pushing for playing time as season progresses with question marks at all three non-1B IF positions

trade none of the big 4. Yoshida and prospects outside the big 4 traded for pitching help. Free agent dollars into pitching help. This is a good lineup with good depth and they can add a piece if opportunity presents but they don’t need to.

How are you getting ace level pitching help and not using one of the big 4 or someone like Abreu on the major league team? Who is taking on Yoshida’s money and giving up a good pitcher?

 

[moondog80]

• I think exploring a Casas / Guerrero deal makes sense, but I also think it's the Red Sox that turn down an even swap. You would also have to assume at least an 11/330 extension for Guerrero.

No question the Red Sox turn that down. But who says no to Casas for Guerrero + Bichette? Casas doesn't make sense for Toronto if they want to tear it down, but if they're not ready to go that far, this allows them to compete while working in some of their younger guys.

 

[simplicio]

We heard at the deadline that Toronto were only dealing rentals. Why would they reverse course on that this winter? And why would they package both of their biggest stars in a single deal? And why do we want to do this deal in the first place?

 

[lexrageorge]

Cassas isn't getting traded just so the current Red Sox ownership can pay Vlad Jr a shit ton of money for marginally greater production.

 

[moondog80]

We heard at the deadline that Toronto were only dealing rentals. Why would they reverse course on that this winter? And why would they package both of their biggest stars in a single deal? And why do we want to do this deal in the first place?

Vlad and Bichette would both qualify as rentals, no? Was O'Neill not a rental?

But yeah, I agree that the Sox say no. Though the motivation for Vlad+ for Casas is clear -- Vlad is the guy they want to latch onto long-term and though they pay more $$ in the short-term, that is somewhat offset by the "plus" part of the deal.

 

[simplicio]

Vlad and Bichette would both qualify as rentals, no? Was O'Neill not a rental?

I meant rentals this year, they were purposefully holding on to guys they control next year.

 

[grimshaw]

Cassas isn't getting traded just so the current Red Sox ownership can pay Vlad Jr a shit ton of money for marginally greater production.

Exactly. This is baffling to me too. 1b is the least of their worries and I'm an "extra wins are extra wins" person.

 

[PedroisGod]

I posted this in the Dream of 2025 instead of in here by mistake:

I think if there's anybody on the active roster who is likely to be moved it's Abreu, not Casas. Wilyer is one of my favourite players on the team, but I think he has a few things working against him - he just cannot hit LHP and needs a RHH caddy to platoon with. We also have Anthony who seems like he's going to be the RF of the future and we have Campbell whose likely home will be LF with Duran in CF. Rafaela is still there as an OF option/utility guy as well.

Casas has at least shown an ability to handle LH pitching and we don't really have another 1B ready unless Devers moves across the diamond, or another 1B is acquired (like Vlad). I think that Abreu and Masa will be two guys that will be shopped this offseason. I think people are on the right track with the idea of trading for Vlad, but instead of it being Casas going to Toronto, I could see it being Wilyer and there being a corresponding move to get Masa off the roster. Vlad can move between 1B, 3B, DH, Casas can move between 1B and DH, and Devers can move between 3B and DH.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Weird thing to say about a guy with a 115 wrc+. He's a good hitter.

Yes, he's a good hitter. But for a DH only player, he'd either need to be a great hitter OR to at least be an equally good hitter against both sides of pitching, and he's not. Just as an example, the best player comp I can think of from last year was Joc Pederson - he is a better hitter (at least using career OPS+) or at least we can say has more pop, but he's also 2 years older. They are both borderline atrocious defensive outfielders and they are both pretty worthless against LHP.

Pederson got a 1 yr / $9.5m deal. Yoshida makes 2x as much per year and is signed for 3 more years. To get someone to take him for a nothing prospect, Boston would probably have to eat a minimum of 60% of the salary due to the 3 year commitment.

Yoshida is also an exceptionally bad fit for Boston because of the side of the plate he hits from and he's in essence "preventing" a superior player from being DH (Devers, or Casas, or any number of guys Boston could otherwise sign for that role at less money that are similar or better hitters, or at least better fits).




Again, I'm not saying that Yoshida stinks, but he's basically the 2021-22 offensive version of Andrew Benintendi but with no ability to play the field or run at average speed. That player should not stand in the way of MLB playing time for (assuming they're all still here) Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony and Campbell.

That said, he's going to be here, and be a pretty nice (though expensive) insurance policy to have on the bench and serve as the DH when injuries inevitably strike. It'd just be far better to have that insurance policy on a 1yr / $8m deal than a 3yr / $57m deal.


@chrisfont9 - couldn't agree more. Though I admittedly start looking forward to Red Sox spring training the literal day after the Red Sox season ends. It's also an interesting point on Abreu. Especially if teams want to lowball on offers because of the Sox glut of LHH players. I'd say this about Anthony however - Lynn didn't destroy upper minor league pitching the way that Anthony has and even his (still absolutely excellent numbers) against high minors pitching came when he was 2 years older than Anthony. To be clear, I'm not trying to pretend to know about what the AA/AAA landscape looked like in 1973 and 1974, I'm simply looking at the raw quad slash lines, and Anthony's was easily superior at 2 years younger.

However, do I THINK that Anthony will be as good as Lynn was as a rookie - absolutely not, to be clear. He was a monster (but I think he'll probably be somewhere between Lynn's 1976 and 1977 seasons). My point is more that Anthony will get absolutely nothing facing minor league pitching and all he is accomplishing in AAA is putting off the cycle of adjustments that he's going to have to make if he's to be a major league player (like Abreu or Rafaela this year).

Rafaela - to his extreme credit - made some nice adjustments through the year. He was atrocious offensively in April and early May. He adjusted to the league and was a beast for May, June and July. The league adjusted back to him and he's struggle for August and especially September (could be wearing down / could be the adjustment - probably a combination of both). But if he'd been in AAA this entire year, all he'd have done was continue to crush AAA pitching and 2025 would be the year he'd be facing those forced adjustments for the first time because he wouldn't have seen anything in AAA to force him to adjust.

(And Anthony is obviously a better prospect than Abreu or Rafaela).

My point is more IF Abreu and Anthony are both still in the organization and IF Duran, Rafaela and Campbell are too, they are the players that should be getting every day playing time between LF, CF, RF, DH and SS. I'd put Grissom here too, FWIW, but admit that as much as I like(d) him and still applaud the trade made to acquire him, he's been surpassed by the other 5.

 

[TrotNixonRing]

How are you getting ace level pitching help and not using one of the big 4 or someone like Abreu on the major league team? Who is taking on Yoshida’s money and giving up a good pitcher?

Free agency. First scenario has Abreu or Duran being traded as well. Not going to get much for Yoshida, perhaps a solid pen arm.

 

[johnnywayback]

This seems very straightforward to me: They need to trade one of Anthony, Duran, or Abreu for a starting pitcher. That seems pretty obviously the way to use our depth to get better.

Which one? I think the rest of the lineup is strong enough that I'd trade whichever of the three gets you the best starting pitcher. Let's say for the sake of argument it's Anthony. I'm fine calling our outfield Duran/Rafaela/Abreu for the next four years.

They'll have around 60m to play with this off-season. I'd divide that between a RHH bat who can DH or play corner outfield (moving Duran to CF), an upmarket reliever, a downmarket reliever, and a midmarket starting pitcher -- call it roughly 20m for the hitter, 20m for the relievers, and 20m for the starter.

Duran, Devers, Story, Casas, RHH bat (Gurriel?), Abreu, Wong, Grissom, Rafaela. Bench is Teel (if you think he's ready), Refsnyder, Yoshida (who DHs whenever an OF needs a day off, with the RHH bat playing OF), and Gonzalez.

That's a very solid lineup, plus excellent RHH and LHH bench bats and a versatile infielder. You also have plenty of AAA infield depth with Campbell, Mayer, Valdez, Sogard, Meidroth, etc., so if Grissom is bad or Story gets hurt (the two most likely lineup problems), you're not immediately screwed. I guess you'd want to sign a decent AAA CF, although if Campbell is ready he'd be an option there.

And you can accomplish this while dramatically strengthening the pitching staff: Guy You Trade Anthony For (Crochet?), Guy You Sign For $20m (Flaherty?), Houck, Giolito, Bello. Assuming one of them gets hurt, Crawford is your SP6, and Criswell your SP7, with Fitts, Priester, and Winckowski leading the AAA rotation as SP 8-10. Bullpen has Closer-ish Guy You Sign for $15m (Estevez?), LHP You Sign for $5m (Minter?), Crawford, Criswell, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Bernardino/Booser. Lots of AAA depth here, too: Guerrero, Penrod, the loser of the lefty battle, Fulmer, Weissert, Kelly, Campbell, etc.

Seems way too doable, so I'm sure it won't happen, but that seems to me like at least an 85-win team.

 

[simplicio]

Crawford's making 33 starts and throwing ~185 innings this year, he's not getting demoted to the pen.

 

[johnnywayback]

I think a team that wants to make the playoffs needs more than five SP. Given the rate of injury among pitchers, odds are our SP6 will make 30 starts anyway. But if you really want to roll the dice with one acquisition plus Houck/Giolito/Bello/Crawford, you can upgrade from Gurriel to Teoscar Hernandez and upgrade from AJ Minter to Tanner Scott.

 

[RedOctober3829]

They'll have around 60m to play with this off-season.

Why should they just have $60 million to play with? Is that the collective fan base's expectation that they just will spend to the first luxury tax threshold? Sox Payroll on Twitter projected the '25 payroll with arb raises and has the team with $63 million in space before the LT threshold

My expectation for this organization is higher than that. They need to actually spend like the big market team they are and go over the luxury tax to add the necessary talent. After years being below the tax limit, the $261 million number is the one that I would hope they'd be looking at to spend to so they'd actually have $83 million in space to work with.

 

[BigSoxFan]

This seems very straightforward to me: They need to trade one of Anthony, Duran, or Abreu for a starting pitcher. That seems pretty obviously the way to use our depth to get better.

Which one? I think the rest of the lineup is strong enough that I'd trade whichever of the three gets you the best starting pitcher. Let's say for the sake of argument it's Anthony. I'm fine calling our outfield Duran/Rafaela/Abreu for the next four years.

They'll have around 60m to play with this off-season. I'd divide that between a RHH bat who can DH or play corner outfield (moving Duran to CF), an upmarket reliever, a downmarket reliever, and a midmarket starting pitcher -- call it roughly 20m for the hitter, 20m for the relievers, and 20m for the starter.

Duran, Devers, Story, Casas, RHH bat (Gurriel?), Abreu, Wong, Grissom, Rafaela. Bench is Teel (if you think he's ready), Refsnyder, Yoshida (who DHs whenever an OF needs a day off, with the RHH bat playing OF), and Gonzalez.

That's a very solid lineup, plus excellent RHH and LHH bench bats and a versatile infielder. You also have plenty of AAA infield depth with Campbell, Mayer, Valdez, Sogard, Meidroth, etc., so if Grissom is bad or Story gets hurt (the two most likely lineup problems), you're not immediately screwed. I guess you'd want to sign a decent AAA CF, although if Campbell is ready he'd be an option there.

And you can accomplish this while dramatically strengthening the pitching staff: Guy You Trade Anthony For (Crochet?), Guy You Sign For $20m (Flaherty?), Houck, Giolito, Bello. Assuming one of them gets hurt, Crawford is your SP6, and Criswell your SP7, with Fitts, Priester, and Winckowski leading the AAA rotation as SP 8-10. Bullpen has Closer-ish Guy You Sign for $15m (Estevez?), LHP You Sign for $5m (Minter?), Crawford, Criswell, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Bernardino/Booser. Lots of AAA depth here, too: Guerrero, Penrod, the loser of the lefty battle, Fulmer, Weissert, Kelly, Campbell, etc.

Seems way too doable, so I'm sure it won't happen, but that seems to me like at least an 85-win team.

Anthony is almost certainly staying put unless a guy like Skubal becomes available. I wonder if Mayer is a guy they’d consider dealing given they’d still have Story, Grissom, Rafaela, Campbell to handle MI. Probably unlikely but I think less unlikely than Anthony.

 

[benhogan]

This seems very straightforward to me: They need to trade one of Anthony, Duran, or Abreu for a starting pitcher. That seems pretty obviously the way to use our depth to get better.

Which one? I think the rest of the lineup is strong enough that I'd trade whichever of the three gets you the best starting pitcher. Let's say for the sake of argument it's Anthony. I'm fine calling our outfield Duran/Rafaela/Abreu for the next four years.

They'll have around 60m to play with this off-season. I'd divide that between a RHH bat who can DH or play corner outfield (moving Duran to CF), an upmarket reliever, a downmarket reliever, and a midmarket starting pitcher -- call it roughly 20m for the hitter, 20m for the relievers, and 20m for the starter.

Duran, Devers, Story, Casas, RHH bat (Gurriel?), Abreu, Wong, Grissom, Rafaela. Bench is Teel (if you think he's ready), Refsnyder, Yoshida (who DHs whenever an OF needs a day off, with the RHH bat playing OF), and Gonzalez.

That's a very solid lineup, plus excellent RHH and LHH bench bats and a versatile infielder. You also have plenty of AAA infield depth with Campbell, Mayer, Valdez, Sogard, Meidroth, etc., so if Grissom is bad or Story gets hurt (the two most likely lineup problems), you're not immediately screwed. I guess you'd want to sign a decent AAA CF, although if Campbell is ready he'd be an option there.

And you can accomplish this while dramatically strengthening the pitching staff: Guy You Trade Anthony For (Crochet?), Guy You Sign For $20m (Flaherty?), Houck, Giolito, Bello. Assuming one of them gets hurt, Crawford is your SP6, and Criswell your SP7, with Fitts, Priester, and Winckowski leading the AAA rotation as SP 8-10. Bullpen has Closer-ish Guy You Sign for $15m (Estevez?), LHP You Sign for $5m (Minter?), Crawford, Criswell, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Bernardino/Booser. Lots of AAA depth here, too: Guerrero, Penrod, the loser of the lefty battle, Fulmer, Weissert, Kelly, Campbell, etc.

Seems way too doable, so I'm sure it won't happen, but that seems to me like at least an 85-win team.

A lot of this sounds very fair.

A combined 10-man staff of starters in Boston/Wooster is how this team should think about their rotation.
Crawford starting the year at #6 is smart.

I'd move Masa + Story and fully commit to a younger, healthier team

 

[RedOctober3829]

A lot of this sounds very fair.

A combined 10-man staff of starters in Boston/Wooster is how this team should think about their rotation.
Crawford starting the year at #6 is smart.

I'd move Masa + Story and fully commit to a younger team

I don't think they'll be able to move Yoshida or Story without either attaching a prospect to them or paying down a lot of their money. Yoshida has actually been decent this year having a 113 OPS+. I think there's use for him on the roster next year. I would like if they moved Story, but he still provides a lot of value defensively and would provide a fallback option if they wanted to include Rafaela in a trade package.

 

[BaseballJones]

I don't think they'll be able to move Yoshida or Story without either attaching a prospect to them or paying down a lot of their money. Yoshida has actually been decent this year having a 113 OPS+. I think there's use for him on the roster next year. I would like if they moved Story, but he still provides a lot of value defensively and would provide a fallback option if they wanted to include Rafaela in a trade package.

This is where the Sox should leverage some of their financial horsepower. Pay some/most of Yoshida's salary and deal him and get a prospect back (preferably pitching). That opens the door for Campbell or Anthony. If a team can have Yoshida and his 113 ops+ and only have to pay like $5-8 million for that, that's a big win for that team.

And for the Sox, they'd end up paying like $10-13 million for that outfield spot, except it would be in the form of Campbell or Anthony, who we all hope would produce at a similar level as Yoshida.

 

[benhogan]

I don't think they'll be able to move Yoshida or Story without either attaching a prospect to them or paying down a lot of their money. Yoshida has actually been decent this year having a 113 OPS+. I think there's use for him on the roster next year. I would like if they moved Story, but he still provides a lot of value defensively and would provide a fallback option if they wanted to include Rafaela in a trade package.

Yea. I'd pay off those contracts and get AAAA starting pitcher (ie Fitts, Priester types).

If we are going to have Breslow/Bailey calling the shots, I'm going to lean into their strength of tinkering with young pitching.
OR what's the sense in having Craig & Co.

 

[chrisfont9]

Cassas isn't getting traded just so the current Red Sox ownership can pay Vlad Jr a shit ton of money for marginally greater production.

And skip out on signing pitching. Seriously, this is suicide.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Cassas isn't getting traded just so the current Red Sox ownership can pay Vlad Jr a shit ton of money for marginally greater production.

Especially since they wouldn't wind up doing that anyway.

 

[Rasputin]

I think a lot of y'all are penciling into the opening day lineup far more of The Big Four than is remotely realistic.

 

[Fishy1]

I think a lot of y'all are penciling into the opening day lineup far more of The Big Four than is remotely realistic.

People are excited. When was the last time we had four guys of this caliber all coming up at once? Xander, Mookie, Benintendi, and Devers were staggered.
I agree we shouldn't hand anyone their job outright, but this year saw them hand the keys to Abreu, Ceddanne, and Grissom all at once (and his stewards)- guys with varying pedigrees, some better than others.

And who is really blocked? I see them competing for these jobs, not pencilled in. Teel's upside is better than Wong's chances of repeating his offensive success. Campbell can duke it out with Grissom in spring training. And Ceddanne has been so horrid offensively, I don't see how he could be blocking Anthony if the latter plays like he can.

 

[TrotNixonRing]

I think a lot of y'all are penciling into the opening day lineup far more of The Big Four than is remotely realistic.

I don’t think Anthony or Campbell have much left to prove in AAA. The Sox can play the service time manipulation game but I hope they don’t

Teel is wishcasting a bit, I’ll admit. But still think he arrives at some point in ‘25

Mayer won’t make the OD roster

 

[LogansDad]

I think a lot of y'all are penciling into the opening day lineup far more of The Big Four than is remotely realistic.

I think it's unrealistic, but not impossible.

Campbell and Teel both fill positions of serious need (RHH outfielder and player who can at least cosplay as a catcher, which Wong doesn't do), and already have skillsets that you aren't likely to pickup for cheap on the open market.

Anthony is a RotY candidate, so they may want to push him from opening day for draft pick considerations.

Mayer has the most minor league experience, and should be first man up at this point if the 2B's suck, so they can move Story over and fire up the MM Machine.

I could see anywhere from none to all of them being on the opening day roster.

 

[simplicio]

I think a lot of y'all are penciling into the opening day lineup far more of The Big Four than is remotely realistic.

I think Anthony and Campbell have a realistic shot.

Give Carson Kelly a deal and move Wong at the deadline to bring up Teel.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

We heard at the deadline that Toronto were only dealing rentals. Why would they reverse course on that this winter? And why would they package both of their biggest stars in a single deal? And why do we want to do this deal in the first place?

If 4 years of control of Casas is on the table for Guerrero + ?, why wouldn't Toronto consider that? They're not resigning Guerrero after this year. I'm sure his personality would be abrasive, but I'd be on board with taking a flyer on Manoah as the additional piece, let Bailey get his hands on him and try to fix him?