Namely that bWAR doesn't incorporate framing, and Martin is the all time framing leader in the pitchf/x era.
Read the fangraphs article linked above, it's really in-depth.
2025 HoF Ballot
- Thread starter E5 Yaz
- Start date
Read the fangraphs article linked above, it's really in-depth.
Interesting... is there a reason BBRef removes the strike zone runs from their calculation? Not that I doubt the value of framing or the methodology behind how they are calculated, I just don't see why BBRef wouldn't include them if the science is settled.
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Where do those runs come from? If you're giving credit to a catcher for preventing runs, you logically have to take it away from a pitcher. I feel like these stats should at least try to tie out to something resembling the actual runs scored and allowed. Maybe Baseball Reference wants to get the full picture before just lumping more value on a player out of the blue.
Seems to me that if a player's HOF argument rests on not-very-well-understood measurements where even advocates of those stats would agree that there's a wide error bar around them, that's not a very good argument.
At least Molina has two top 4 MVP finishes and 9 gold gloves. Martin received only a handful of MVP votes and won only a single gold glove. Martin was on four All Star teams to Molina's ten.
While he was playing, nobody regarded Russell Martin as one of the handful of best players in the game. And it's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Obscure Statistical Greatness.
At least Molina has two top 4 MVP finishes and 9 gold gloves. Martin received only a handful of MVP votes and won only a single gold glove. Martin was on four All Star teams to Molina's ten.
While he was playing, nobody regarded Russell Martin as one of the handful of best players in the game. And it's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Obscure Statistical Greatness.
I was coming here to say a similar thing. Maybe Russell Martin is the best pitch framer of all time, and that's a valuable skill, but does that make him Hall of Fame worthy? Is Don Baylor a HoFer because he had the most HBPs?
I am a big Hall of Fame guy, the more the merrier, but I guess I found my line and it's Russell Martin.
I appreciate the numbers, honestly thank you, and it made me reevaluate his career; I was being dismissive when I called him a JAG. But that's still not enough to get him into Cooperstown, as far as I'm concerned. If he made it, I wouldn't burn the place down, but he think he falls quite a bit short.
The Hall of Fame is not about statistical excellence based on obscure metrics that the vast majority of the public does not understand and even experts disagree on.
Russell Martin is a very good player. IMO, there is no reasonable case for him in the HoF and it would not surprise me if he fell off the ballot relatively quickly.
Edit: Did not realize that @Philip Jeff Frye used almost the exact words to make his case. I'm leaving it anyway.
Russell Martin is a very good player. IMO, there is no reasonable case for him in the HoF and it would not surprise me if he fell off the ballot relatively quickly.
Edit: Did not realize that @Philip Jeff Frye used almost the exact words to make his case. I'm leaving it anyway.
30 ballots known on the tracker, that's approaching enough for the vote to have a recognizable shape, let's check in on the vote so far:
(1) Ichiro 100%
(1) Sabathia 93%
(10) Wagner 87%
--
(3) Beltran 67%
(8) Andruw Jones 60%
(2) Utley 47%
(4) A-Rod 40%
(7) Pettitte 40%
(9) Manny 37%
---
(8) Vizquel 23%
(4) Rollins 20%
(1) King Felix 13%
(5) Buehrle 13%
(3) K-Rod 10%
(6) Abreu 10%
(2) Wright 6.7%
(1) Pedroia 6.7%
----
(1) Kinsler 3.3%
Everyone else: 0% (includes Torii Hunter, in his 5th year on the ballot)
Pedroia will end up higher than his early public vote will suggest, because he rates highly on the cranky-old-voter-who-doesn't-disclose metrics, things like "known for making big demonstrative defensive plays", "having no steroid rumors", and "being white". But I'll admit to being surprised he's only gotten 2 of the 30 votes so far (one of which is Sean Forman, founder of BBRef). Anyway, important thing is that Kinsler drops off before he does.
Wagner will probably get that final-year bounce and make it a 3-person class. I think Beltran and Andruw Jones eventually get there. The rest, no idea - A-Rod doesn't really have a natural constituency, and we know the voters let Clemens and Bonds twist in the wind until their candidacies expired, so there's no "they wouldn't possibly..." kind of failsafe we might otherwise believe in.
(1) Ichiro 100%
(1) Sabathia 93%
(10) Wagner 87%
--
(3) Beltran 67%
(8) Andruw Jones 60%
(2) Utley 47%
(4) A-Rod 40%
(7) Pettitte 40%
(9) Manny 37%
---
(8) Vizquel 23%
(4) Rollins 20%
(1) King Felix 13%
(5) Buehrle 13%
(3) K-Rod 10%
(6) Abreu 10%
(2) Wright 6.7%
(1) Pedroia 6.7%
----
(1) Kinsler 3.3%
Everyone else: 0% (includes Torii Hunter, in his 5th year on the ballot)
Pedroia will end up higher than his early public vote will suggest, because he rates highly on the cranky-old-voter-who-doesn't-disclose metrics, things like "known for making big demonstrative defensive plays", "having no steroid rumors", and "being white". But I'll admit to being surprised he's only gotten 2 of the 30 votes so far (one of which is Sean Forman, founder of BBRef). Anyway, important thing is that Kinsler drops off before he does.
Wagner will probably get that final-year bounce and make it a 3-person class. I think Beltran and Andruw Jones eventually get there. The rest, no idea - A-Rod doesn't really have a natural constituency, and we know the voters let Clemens and Bonds twist in the wind until their candidacies expired, so there's no "they wouldn't possibly..." kind of failsafe we might otherwise believe in.
What’s the case for Rollins having so much more support than Pedroia and Kinsler? Slightly longer career, more hits?
Utley versus Pedroia is where WAR really breaks down as a useful measure. It has Utley as the better defensive player, which sounds completely ridiculous to anyone who watched the two play. Utley's defensive reputation was of a guy who you could stick with at second because of his bat. Pedroia was considered right up as one of the best in the game. As hitters, Utley was better according to OPS+, but it was SLG heavy, so they were a lot closer than you'd think at first look (Pedroia had a better career OBP). Pedroia didn't have the counting stats voters usually like, but Utley was a below average player in his last 5 seasons and still only had 1000 more plate appearances. It's hard to figure how he's at 47% and Pedroia is at 6% unless voters just look at WAR and don't think about it any more than that.
Regarding the vote shares of ballot debutantes:
Lowest debut vote percentages for a player eventually inducted via the BBWAA, 1966-present*:
Scott Rolen, 10.2% in 2018 (elected 6th ballot, with 79.7%)
Bob Lemon, 11.9% in 1964 (12th: 78.6%; got as low as 7.0%!)
Todd Helton, 16.5% in 2019 (6th: 76.3%)
Duke Snider, 17.0% in 1970 (11th: 86.5%)
Bert Blyleven, 17.5% in 1998 (14th: 79.7%)
Larry Walker, 20.3% in 2011 (10th: 76.6%; got as low as 10.2%)
Mike Mussina, 20.3% in 2014 (6th: 76.7%)
Don Drysdale, 21.0% in 1975 (10th: 78.4%)
Billy Williams, 23.4% in 1982 (6th: 85.7%)
Bruce Sutter, 23.9% in 1994 (13th: 76.9%)
Tim Raines, 24.3% in 2008 (10th: 86.0%)
* it was weird prior to that. In the 1960 ballot, 134 different players got votes, including Ralph Kiner getting 1.1%, eventually elected on his 13th ballot. The 1956 ballot contained many players getting low-single-digits who eventually were elected, such as Lou Boudreau getting 1.0%. Prior to 1978, getting below 5% didn’t kick you out of consideration in future years by default, and even after that, you could be renominated the next year, and often were.
The vast majority of (eventual) inductees are either first-ballot or start out 40%+. There are a handful of players beyond the above list who started in the 25-30% range and eventually got in, but far more (as you'll see below) who started out there and never made it.
Highest debut vote percentages for a player who didn’t get elected prior to the expiration of his (BBWAA) eligibility:
Lee Smith, 42.3% in 2003 (2017: 34.2%)**
Steve Garvey, 41.6% in 1993 (2007: 21.1%)
Curt Schilling, 38.8% in 2013 (2022: 58.6%)
Jim Bunning, 38.1% in 1977 (1991: 63.7%)**
Roger Clemens, 37.6% in 2013 (2022: 65.2%)
Pee Wee Reese, 36.3% in 1964 (1978: 44.6%)**
Barry Bonds, 36.2% in 2013 (2022: 66.0%)
Enos Slaughter, 33.1% in 1966 (1979: 68.8%)**
Luis Tiant, 30.9% in 1988 (2002: 18.0%)
Maury Wills, 30.3% in 1978 (1992: 25.6%)
Don Mattingly, 28.2% in 2001 (2015: 9.1%)
Phil Rizzuto, 27.5% in 1962 (1976: 38.4%)**
Gil Hodges, 24.1% in 1969 (1983: 63.4%)**
Mark McGwire, 23.5% in 2007 (2016: 12.3%)
Jack Morris, 22.2% in 2000 (2014: 61.5%)**
Roger Maris, 21.4% in 1974 (1988: 43.1%)
Tommy John, 21.3% in 1995 (2009: 31.7%)
Minnie Miñoso, 20.9% in 1986 (1999: 14.7%)**
Mickey Lolich, 19.7% in 1985 (1999: 5.2%)
Jim Kart, 19.5% in 1989 (2003: 26.2%)**
Dale Murphy, 19.3% in 1999 (2013: 18.6%)
Red Schoendienst, 19.1% in 1969 (1983: 39.0%)**
H.M. to Thurman Munson, whose initial 15.5% vote quickly crashed, like…
** eventually elected via Veterans Committee. So if you have a strong-ish start and stick around long enough to run out your eligibility, you still have about a 50% chance of making it in eventually, by the back door.
Lowest debut vote percentages for a player eventually inducted via the BBWAA, 1966-present*:
Scott Rolen, 10.2% in 2018 (elected 6th ballot, with 79.7%)
Bob Lemon, 11.9% in 1964 (12th: 78.6%; got as low as 7.0%!)
Todd Helton, 16.5% in 2019 (6th: 76.3%)
Duke Snider, 17.0% in 1970 (11th: 86.5%)
Bert Blyleven, 17.5% in 1998 (14th: 79.7%)
Larry Walker, 20.3% in 2011 (10th: 76.6%; got as low as 10.2%)
Mike Mussina, 20.3% in 2014 (6th: 76.7%)
Don Drysdale, 21.0% in 1975 (10th: 78.4%)
Billy Williams, 23.4% in 1982 (6th: 85.7%)
Bruce Sutter, 23.9% in 1994 (13th: 76.9%)
Tim Raines, 24.3% in 2008 (10th: 86.0%)
* it was weird prior to that. In the 1960 ballot, 134 different players got votes, including Ralph Kiner getting 1.1%, eventually elected on his 13th ballot. The 1956 ballot contained many players getting low-single-digits who eventually were elected, such as Lou Boudreau getting 1.0%. Prior to 1978, getting below 5% didn’t kick you out of consideration in future years by default, and even after that, you could be renominated the next year, and often were.
The vast majority of (eventual) inductees are either first-ballot or start out 40%+. There are a handful of players beyond the above list who started in the 25-30% range and eventually got in, but far more (as you'll see below) who started out there and never made it.
Highest debut vote percentages for a player who didn’t get elected prior to the expiration of his (BBWAA) eligibility:
Lee Smith, 42.3% in 2003 (2017: 34.2%)**
Steve Garvey, 41.6% in 1993 (2007: 21.1%)
Curt Schilling, 38.8% in 2013 (2022: 58.6%)
Jim Bunning, 38.1% in 1977 (1991: 63.7%)**
Roger Clemens, 37.6% in 2013 (2022: 65.2%)
Pee Wee Reese, 36.3% in 1964 (1978: 44.6%)**
Barry Bonds, 36.2% in 2013 (2022: 66.0%)
Enos Slaughter, 33.1% in 1966 (1979: 68.8%)**
Luis Tiant, 30.9% in 1988 (2002: 18.0%)
Maury Wills, 30.3% in 1978 (1992: 25.6%)
Don Mattingly, 28.2% in 2001 (2015: 9.1%)
Phil Rizzuto, 27.5% in 1962 (1976: 38.4%)**
Gil Hodges, 24.1% in 1969 (1983: 63.4%)**
Mark McGwire, 23.5% in 2007 (2016: 12.3%)
Jack Morris, 22.2% in 2000 (2014: 61.5%)**
Roger Maris, 21.4% in 1974 (1988: 43.1%)
Tommy John, 21.3% in 1995 (2009: 31.7%)
Minnie Miñoso, 20.9% in 1986 (1999: 14.7%)**
Mickey Lolich, 19.7% in 1985 (1999: 5.2%)
Jim Kart, 19.5% in 1989 (2003: 26.2%)**
Dale Murphy, 19.3% in 1999 (2013: 18.6%)
Red Schoendienst, 19.1% in 1969 (1983: 39.0%)**
H.M. to Thurman Munson, whose initial 15.5% vote quickly crashed, like…
** eventually elected via Veterans Committee. So if you have a strong-ish start and stick around long enough to run out your eligibility, you still have about a 50% chance of making it in eventually, by the back door.
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Via a veterans committee six years after his eligibility with the BBWAA had expired.
A Red Sox farm hand sent away because Joe Cronin still wanted to play shortstop at 32 years old and Tom Yawkey loved himself some Joe Cronin.
Can anyone explain why Speir dinged Manny and A-Rod for PEDs but not Pettitte? The "only using it to rehab faster" is thin gruel.
My guess, and I don't think Speier spelled it out, is that Manny and ARod were busted by MLB for PEDs after the no PED ordinance went into action. Pettitte admitted it, with a huge assist from Roger Clemens, but not punished.
Tony Massarotti apparently lost his HOF ballot this year due to eligibility rules. Last year his submission just had Manny and A-Rod on it (no Beltre, Helton or Mauer, last year's inductees). I'd say they're well rid of him.
Speier did a recap of his 10 votes:
https://bsky.app/profile/alexspeier.bsky.social/post/3lfbkupbsok2i
https://bsky.app/profile/alexspeier.bsky.social/post/3lfbkupbsok2i
Speier's so damn thoughtful. This point kinda blew my mind:
Not that I have a Hall vote, but I've also long thought that the criteria he laid out here was a good one:
This 10 year guidance is why I've always thought Rice deserved to be in the Hall. From '75 to the early 80s he was considered perhaps the most fearsome hitter in baseball. And his '75 to '86 stretch is completely Hall worthy. That he didn't hang around another 6 years compiling stats shouldn't have been held against him.
I disagree with a few of his votes, but I like his framework.
If you ONLY take B-R WAR, it's hard to make the argument that Rice's prime is one of the best several, and therefore "completely Hall worthy." Among LFers, he had the 25th highest WAR7, the WAR combined for his 7 highest WAR seasons. At 36.4, this is more than 5 WAR below the average of the 21 HOF LF, an average that doesn't include Bonds or Rose. This isn't about defensive estimations, as this includes him being considered above average for a LF in those years (+29 runs total). It is, however, largely impacted by the defensive positional adjustment of playing a lot of DH in those years. If you pretended all his DH time was average defense LF time instead, I think it adds around 12 runs (1.2 WAR) to his peak, which would put him around Willie Stargell's peak, without Stargell's longevity/totals. The fact is, though, that he DID play a lot of DH and thus didn't contribute defensively.
If you ignore position and defense, and just look at batting runs (Rbat) above average from '75-'86 (cherry-picking his best years), he's the 5th most productive hitter over that period, well behind Schmidt & Brett, close behind Murray & Winfield, and a good bit ahead of Carew (old)/Hernandez/Singletary (old)/Reggie (old).
https://stathead.com/tiny/HZUKB
How many players have an 11 season span with 295+ RBat? Well, only 137 players have had that many in a career. Rice isn't one of them, since he was a below average hitter from 87-89. So instead, let's hone in specifically on batting runs for players in their ages 22-33 season (again, cherry picking for Rice). Rice's 299 ranks 94th in baseball history, a good bit behind people like Olerud, Bobby Abreu, Goldschmidt, Jack Clark, and Jeter. And this, of course, ignores defensive value.
If we try to weed out his ages 23, 31 and 32 seasons, and instead just go with 24-30, he's still 92nd all time in batting runs, tied with Jeter.
Rice's candidacy really relies on subjective measures, on perhaps arguing that Fenway wasn't as good a hitter's park as the adjustments think, that he should get credit for being a good outfielder even when he DH'd a lot, on the fear.
That's interesting. In full disclosure, I've lost all enthusiasm for WAR and the first time I've heard of RBat is your post.
In Rice's 1975-1986 I see a guy who led the league in home runs 3 times, had 4 200+ hit seasons, had an OPS+ of 120 or more 10 times, led the league in total bases 4 times, made 8 all star games, won an MVP and finished in the top 5 six times.
And, to Speier's point about a player being captivating, Rice was one of those players who made you stop and watch his at bats.
I'm a big Hall guy, and Jim Rice was a huge star in baseball for a dozen years who also backed it up with production. So that's where I land on this stuff.
I'm not saying you're doing this, but I find the trend pf reducing everything in baseball to some flavor of WAR to be so boring.
Criticism of WAR is one reason I reduced it to just batting output. It's basically wOBA above or below league average, times playing time to create runs. wOBA includes park factor. During this time period, Fenway was producing 6-13% more offense than the league average, including 13% in 76-78. Back then, it also produced way more homers than the league average, although it's been below league average (mostly) since 1992.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml
I'm absolutely not reducing Rice's case to just WAR. I'm starting from there and saying even just focusing on his peak years, his production doesn't clear the bar by itself.
Your other points in his favor are absolutely valid. I was very happy when Rice made the Hall.
Quick edit: 191 batters have had at least 10 seasons of 120+ OPS+. This number is 135 if you only include since 1920 and AL/NL. Using that same criteria, only 32 had at least 4 seasons of 200+ hits - but this isn't Fenway-adjusted. Fenway increased hits by around 7% during Rice's career - 83 guys had 4+ seasons of 187 hits or more, including Rice having 5. On the other hand, many of the players on that list (Ichiro, Rose, Jeter, Boggs, Young, Puckett, Gwynn, Altuve, Pierre, Carew, Lloyd Waner) lacked Rice's power. Again, I think it's really difficult to make Rice's case for the Hall without subjective factors, how people felt about him at the time, the reputation, etc.
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This is all fascinating. And thanks for taking my reply in the spirit it was intended!
Everything you mentioned in terms of park effects brings a lot of context to the discussion. I'll acknowledge that saying Rice was "completely" Hall worthy isn't necessarily true.
As a fan of the game, moreso than the analytics that explain it, I will say that, even if park effect aided, those hits happened. Even if some of Rice's homers wouldn't have cleared the wall in another park, they did at Fenway. And to me, the Hall of Fame is about many things, including telling the story of the game and the best who played it. I get the sense that you agree.
So if we had a tiered system for the Hall -- the pyramid that Bill Simmons has long advocated -- I completely agree that Rice would be on one of the lower floors. But to me he gets in, as do others who have been excluded over recent years. Even if some of the advanced stats don't support their candidacy entirely.
I'm all in on all of this. I'm a little young to have appreciated Rice in his prime, but he was iconic when I was a kid.
Rice was one of the best players in baseball for a good long stretch of time. I'm a small hall guy, but Rice is better than a bunch of guys currently in.
Joe Posnanski had a good post about this yesterday on his blog. He compared it to describing the characters in the Star Wars trilogies.
The Queen Amidala Hall of Fame Gambit - by Joe Posnanski
The Queen Amidala Hall of Fame Gambit - by Joe Posnanski
By this standard, Pedroia and Rice are better candidates than their BBref page would suggest.
How big of a star was Pedroia nationally? Obviously he was a super hero in Boston, and I freakin' loved the guy. But I wonder if there's a sentiment that this wouldn't even be a discussion had he spent his career in, say, Kansas City. I'm genuinely on the fence about him despite him being in my top 5 favorite Sox ever.
Well said.
The obverse of all those supposed HRs that Rice got because of Fenway is the absurd number of screaming line drives that ricocheted off the wall into singles and doubles that WOULD have been HRs in another park, of which Rice hit a shit ton of.
Rice hit 34 more Homers (and 9 more 3B, 41 more 2B, and 72 more 2B) in 44 fewer PA at home than on the road in his career. We don't need to pretend he wasn't helped by Fenway.
Edit: Fun fact - the only parks he had a higher OPS in than Fenway were Shea (23 PA, 1.145 OPS, .526 BABIP) and the Toilet (308 PA, 1.047 OPS, .332 BABIP). He hit HR in 7.9% of his AB at the Toilet, compared to 5.1% at Fenway. The only other parks where he had higher HR rates were the Metrodome (174 PA, 6.3%) and Exhibition Stadium (325 PA, 6.1%). His worst stadiums were Royals Stadium (360 PA, 0.626 OPS, .242 BABIP, 1.8% HR/AB) and Arlington (366 PA, 0.656 OPS, .258 BABIP, 2.8% HR/AB.
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Rice was before my time but I find it hard to reconcile his reputation as "the most feared hitter" of his time with his actual hitting stats... Mike Schmidt's career overlapped Rice and he was a flat-out better hitter on a consistent yearly basis. Dave Parker, who was elected by the verteran's committee last year but never topped 25% on the BBWAA ballot, also overlapped Rice and he seemed to be more or less Rice's equal over the same period, especially focusing on their prime years of 1975-86:
Rice: .304/.356/.520 133 OPS+
Parker: .302/.352/.494 130 OPS+
They both put up eerily similar numbers during their peak 3 year stretches from 1977-79 as well:
Rice: .320/.376/.596 153 OPS+
Parker: .327/.390/.546 150 OPS+
Parker was also better than Rice in 75-76, if you throw in these two years you get from 1975-79:
Rice: .311/.360/.556 142 OPS+
Parker: .321/.377/.532 147 OPS+
Rice grounded into double plays at around twice the rate that Parker did as well. You could easily argue that Parker was the better hitter during their prime.
Rice: .304/.356/.520 133 OPS+
Parker: .302/.352/.494 130 OPS+
They both put up eerily similar numbers during their peak 3 year stretches from 1977-79 as well:
Rice: .320/.376/.596 153 OPS+
Parker: .327/.390/.546 150 OPS+
Parker was also better than Rice in 75-76, if you throw in these two years you get from 1975-79:
Rice: .311/.360/.556 142 OPS+
Parker: .321/.377/.532 147 OPS+
Rice grounded into double plays at around twice the rate that Parker did as well. You could easily argue that Parker was the better hitter during their prime.
That sounds to me like nothing more than a roundabout way of saying that Rice had better teammates who got on base more.
This discussion is a few weeks old but I'm not won over for the Yadier for HoF thought either.
I'm generally hesitant for just about any defense first player. I see a .726 ops 42 war player, 22nd in jaws, who has these as similar players:
I get that I'm probably on an island here, but if he's a hall of fame player, you might as well put another dozen catchers in.
I'm generally hesitant for just about any defense first player. I see a .726 ops 42 war player, 22nd in jaws, who has these as similar players:
I get that I'm probably on an island here, but if he's a hall of fame player, you might as well put another dozen catchers in.
I'm not sure if you're jesting but that's actually a fair point. Parker had ~1000 more plate appearances in his career than Rice but Rice had 2076 plate appearances with a runner on 1st with less than 2 outs while Parker only had 1924. So Rice grounded into a double play on 15.2 percent of his plate appearances where it was possible to do so, while Parker's rate was 10.9 percent. (If you look at only 1975-86 it becomes 14.9 percent versus 10.6 percent.) So "around twice the rate" was indeed an overstatement. (That observation was originally based on Rice averaging 25 GDP per 162 games from 1975-86 compared to 14 GDP per 162 games for Parker over the same period.)
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He certainly had a better arm. I remember looking forward to TWIB in the late 70's just to watch the rockets launched from right field from the Cobra and Ellis Valentine.
Parker and Schmidt were in the NL. It's hard to imagine now, but back then the leagues really were totally separate and being the best [whatever] in the AL/NL was a thing.
When interleague hit it really was such a cosmic shift in the game. We got to see the Braves at Fenway! Just a totally different game before interleague.
They've got 40% of ballots known now. Last few years they got to ~55% of ballots pre-results announcement. So we're in the home stretch here. Status snapshot, sorted by current vote %:
Ichiro Suzuki 100.0% (1st ballot)
CC Sabathia 93.0% (1st)
Billy Wagner 84.2% (10th, +8 net on returning voters so far, finished 73.8% last year)
Carlos Beltrán 79.7% (3rd, +19 net!, 57.1% last year)
--- Induction Line ---
Andruw Jones 73.4% (8th, +12, 61.6%)
Chase Utley 55.1% (2nd, +16, 28.8%)
Álex Rodríguez 40.5% (4th, -1, 34.8%)
Manny Ramírez 36.1% (9th, -2, 32.5%)
Andy Pettitte 32.9% (7th, +17!, 13.5%)
Félix Hernández 25.9% (1st)
Bobby Abreu 25.3% (6th, +6, 14.8%)
Jimmy Rollins 19.0% (4th, +9, 12.9%)
--- Helton Line (he debuted at 16.5% and made it; below that debut %, only Scott Rolen has ever gotten in) ---
Dustin Pedroia 13.3% (1st)
Mark Buehrle 13.3% (5th, +9, 8.3%)
Omar Vizquel 12.7% (8th, +4, 17.7%)
David Wright 10.8% (2nd, +5, 6.2%)
Francisco Rodríguez 8.2% (3rd, +4, 7.8%)
--- Cut Line ---
Russell Martin 4.4% (1st)
Brian McCann 3.8% (1st)
Ian Kinsler 2.5% (1st)
Torii Hunter 1.3% (5th, -3, 7.3%)
(all others 0)
Will Beltran make it? Last 2 years, his drop-off from the pre-results %s were -9.7% and -7.4%. So unless he ends up much better off with the private voters this year, he'll probably finish above 70% this year and look pretty good for next year. He's flipped a lot of voters so far though (like, >10% of them), so it's at least possible. Likewise Andruw Jones, who is rising fast - on trend, he should make it in his final 2 years of eligibility. Chase Utley is rising a bunch, but should be a few years yet before he's a contendah. Manny and A-Rod are going nowhere.
Not looking good for Pedroia's induction odds, but a double-digit debut is pretty respectable and suggests he'll be on the ballot for years to come.
Ichiro Suzuki 100.0% (1st ballot)
CC Sabathia 93.0% (1st)
Billy Wagner 84.2% (10th, +8 net on returning voters so far, finished 73.8% last year)
Carlos Beltrán 79.7% (3rd, +19 net!, 57.1% last year)
--- Induction Line ---
Andruw Jones 73.4% (8th, +12, 61.6%)
Chase Utley 55.1% (2nd, +16, 28.8%)
Álex Rodríguez 40.5% (4th, -1, 34.8%)
Manny Ramírez 36.1% (9th, -2, 32.5%)
Andy Pettitte 32.9% (7th, +17!, 13.5%)
Félix Hernández 25.9% (1st)
Bobby Abreu 25.3% (6th, +6, 14.8%)
Jimmy Rollins 19.0% (4th, +9, 12.9%)
--- Helton Line (he debuted at 16.5% and made it; below that debut %, only Scott Rolen has ever gotten in) ---
Dustin Pedroia 13.3% (1st)
Mark Buehrle 13.3% (5th, +9, 8.3%)
Omar Vizquel 12.7% (8th, +4, 17.7%)
David Wright 10.8% (2nd, +5, 6.2%)
Francisco Rodríguez 8.2% (3rd, +4, 7.8%)
--- Cut Line ---
Russell Martin 4.4% (1st)
Brian McCann 3.8% (1st)
Ian Kinsler 2.5% (1st)
Torii Hunter 1.3% (5th, -3, 7.3%)
(all others 0)
Will Beltran make it? Last 2 years, his drop-off from the pre-results %s were -9.7% and -7.4%. So unless he ends up much better off with the private voters this year, he'll probably finish above 70% this year and look pretty good for next year. He's flipped a lot of voters so far though (like, >10% of them), so it's at least possible. Likewise Andruw Jones, who is rising fast - on trend, he should make it in his final 2 years of eligibility. Chase Utley is rising a bunch, but should be a few years yet before he's a contendah. Manny and A-Rod are going nowhere.
Not looking good for Pedroia's induction odds, but a double-digit debut is pretty respectable and suggests he'll be on the ballot for years to come.
My ballot would have had Ichiro, Sabathia, Wagner, Andruw Jones, ARod, and Manny on it.
But I don't get a vote. Bummer.
But I don't get a vote. Bummer.
Fine, I'll post my imaginary ballot, too.
Ichiro
CC
Beltran
Andruw
ARod
Manny
Utley
Felix
I wouldn't vote Wagner but ... it's fine.
Ichiro
CC
Beltran
Andruw
ARod
Manny
Utley
Felix
I wouldn't vote Wagner but ... it's fine.