2025 Free Agent possibilities

SMU_Sox

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Edit: forgot to tag you in response @Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

Teven Jenkins didn't interview well which is why he fell in the draft. He also ended up at OG vs RT. I don't really see that as a negative though. With guys like him, absolute maulers, they might be best in the interior.

I am not a fan of PFF individual grades but you can also look at his sack and pressure numbers:
94812

He gives up about 1 pressure a game. That's good. He doesn't get many penalties. He excels as a downblocker but he can play in any scheme. He is an above average starter at LG or RG.

Dalman is a zone-only, or zonly, center. If we wanted to go with a heavy wide-zone scheme he would work. His issue is he can get bullied by bigger DTs in pass pro. Personally I prefer guys who are better in pass pro at center but he is a good run-blocker.

So depending on what scheme we run it could rule out Dalman.
 

SMU_Sox

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This is an interesting take, because while I also think we're something like 3 years away from real contention it takes me in a very different direction.

At some positions most good players need a few years in the league before they reach something close to their eventual full potential. Offensive Line is very much like this. Guys who have played most snaps for four years are, on average, much better in year four than year one.

Other positions that have a longer learning curve, going from college to the NFL: QB ('natch), CB, LB, WR (these three in part because of the complexity of passing offenses and defenses)

Positions with shorter learning curves: DE, DT, RB, long snapper, P, K

Now, because I can be a terminally visual person, in order to get myself clear on what I'm trying to say, I put together following graphic. It combines SMU's four tiers of draft prospects with my own highly-unscientific sense of which positions have shorter and longer learning curves when transitioning to the NFL

View attachment 94791

The take-away, I guess, is all else being equal start by drafting the top-right positions early in a rebuild, and the positions further to the left and lower down later.

(Of course, all else is never equal)
Hmm, this one is interesting. I would put TE in the longer learning curve.

OT, OG, OC are medium term? It really depends on how technically advanced the prospect is, what college they are coming from, and what system they are going to. I feel like most OL should be able to start well by year 2. Is that long or short? I think short if I had to pick.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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Teven Jenkins didn't interview well which is why he fell in the draft... He is an above average starter at LG or RG.
Yeah, I was thinking that he's a candidate to start at LG for us, especially in the scenario where we're not confident we can win the bidding for Trey Smith


Dalman is a zone-only, or zonly, center. If we wanted to go with a heavy wide-zone scheme he would work... So depending on what scheme we run it could rule out Dalman.
Right. I'd kinda forgotten that we don't know yet what scheme we're going to run next year.

Harder to asses some free agents until we have more of a sense of that
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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Hmm, this one is interesting. I would put TE in the longer learning curve.

OT, OG, OC are medium term? It really depends on how technically advanced the prospect is, what college they are coming from, and what system they are going to. I feel like most OL should be able to start well by year 2. Is that long or short? I think short if I had to pick.

Yeah, I'm not sure you can accurately do the exercise the way I'm trying to do it.

Or maybe, it's too simplistic to try and plot everyone in a position group at the same place in the graphic.

It might have to be something like "people at [position X] who showed proficiency in college in the same scheme that the Pats use will have [reasonable length of shorter learning curve], while those who didn't but have the physical tools to be good might have [reasonable length of longer learning curve]" and so on

Of course, we don't know what scheme we're running next year, so the whole exercise is kinda divorced from reality right now.

We as fans might not be able to do this accurately this off-season, depending on what Vrabel chooses to reveal in the next couple months
 

Eddie Jurak

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Does anyone want Matt Judon back? His numbers were way down last year - his lowest sack total sicne his rookie season despite playing all 17 games. Would his his price tag be in the Pats range?
 

jsinger121

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Does anyone want Matt Judon back? His numbers were way down last year - his lowest sack total sicne his rookie season despite playing all 17 games. Would his his price tag be in the Pats range?
No thanks on Judon. I think he’s totally washed now. One of Wolf’s better moves was dumping him for a 3rd round pick.
 

Saints Rest

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kind of doubt Simmons will get moved.

Levi Onwuzurike was already an interesting FA this offseason, now moves up the list...history of injury concerns and not really a sack producer probably keeps his price reasonable, but he's a versatile DE/DT (6'3" 290) who grades out well against both run and pass. Basically a younger Wise upgrade.
Levi Onwuzurike would be someone I’d target on Day 1 of free agency to bring in a solid culture building player.
I'm going to add LO to my list in the OP (along with some other people added in later posts).
 

joe dokes

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Does anyone want Matt Judon back? His numbers were way down last year - his lowest sack total since his rookie season despite playing all 17 games. Would his his price tag be in the Pats range?
Regardless of the price tag, I dont think he offers much in the way of talent. He's down to being a one-trick pony who isn't even doing that trick too well anymore.
He reminds me of Mayo in his last season as a player. He *finally* got an injury-free season. He just wasn't very good.
 

Saints Rest

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Regardless of the price tag, I dont think he offers much in the way of talent. He's down to being a one-trick pony who isn't even doing that trick too well anymore.
He reminds me of Mayo in his last season as a player. He *finally* got an injury-free season. He just wasn't very good.
I think Judon should look to sign with whatever team Flores ends up on. It seems like at this point in his career, he should be a designated pass rusher, and that might be something that Flores could do something with, the way the Pats did in 2011 with Mark Anderson.
 

dynomite

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RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory
He was moreso frustrated about the QB situation than Josh. Drake Maye throwing him deep balls vs. Jimmy G/Aidan O’Connell are two totally different situations.
 

Cellar-Door

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He was moreso frustrated about the QB situation than Josh. Drake Maye throwing him deep balls vs. Jimmy G/Aidan O’Connell are two totally different situations.
He was not real happy when they released Carr... his long time friend, the best QB on the roster by a mile, and (by Adams' own admission) the reason he was willing to sign the extension that allowed the trade to happen. He also was unhappy with his role in the offense under Josh. He was professional enough to keep going, and not to dance on the grave of Josh's career.... but I really don't think McDaniels will be at all a draw for him.
 

RedOctober3829

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with Josh as his OC? Pretty sure Adam’s says no to that.
Stats don't lie though. He put up his 2nd best season of his career in 2022 in Josh's system. That should be what he's looking at and not 2023. In Josh's system with a good QB, he performed very well. That combined with the ability to offer him a lot of money should be enticing for him.
 

dynomite

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Stats don't lie though. He put up his 2nd best season of his career in 2022 in Josh's system. That should be what he's looking at and not 2023. In Josh's system with a good QB, he performed very well. That combined with the ability to offer him a lot of money should be enticing for him.
It sounds like Adams wants to stay with the Jets if Rodgers does, and if not he'll decide where he goes?

https://www.nfl.com/news/jets-wr-davante-adams-contract-allows-him-to-control-his-future-for-2025-season

Also, at 32 coming off a massive contract but without a ring, I'd guess Adams probably wants to go to an immediate contender in 2025, not a rebuilding team with a bad O-Line and unproven QB like the Pats.
 

dynomite

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I posted this in the OC thread, but I think with Josh's return, we might see a fullback free agent signing. Patrick Rickard would be top of my list, but I'm not sure BAL lets him out of the building.
Agreed, and a shiny $1 to the Jimmy Fund says old friend Jakob Johnson will be returning to the facilities.

As many of us remember, he came out of the international program from Germany, was originally a UDFA on the Pats practice squad, but eventually replaced Develin. He was here 2019-2021, followed Josh McD to Vegas in 2022-2023, and then bounced around on the Giants practice squad this year. Just turned 30.
 

Cellar-Door

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It sounds like Adams wants to stay with the Jets if Rodgers does, and if not he'll decide where he goes?

https://www.nfl.com/news/jets-wr-davante-adams-contract-allows-him-to-control-his-future-for-2025-season

Also, at 32 coming off a massive contract but without a ring, I'd guess Adams probably wants to go to an immediate contender in 2025, not a rebuilding team with a bad O-Line and unproven QB like the Pats.
I assume Adams preferences are:
Stay in NY (with Rodgers)
Highest paying contender
Saints
 

NomarsFool

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What are Brissett's real options? I woudn't think anyone is giving him a starter job or starter pay. Sitting on the sideline in Foxboro is less fun than sitting on the sideline in Miami, for sure, but it doesn't seem inconceivable to me that he could be back.
 

NortheasternPJ

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Does anyone think Josh’s history with Jacoby will change the likely future for Brissett on the 2025 Pats (from either perspective)?
Why would the Pats carry 3 QBs again? Milton isn’t the savior but I don’t see any reason to carry Brissett at anything above the league minimum.
 

dynomite

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Why would the Pats carry 3 QBs again? Milton isn’t the savior but I don’t see any reason to carry Brissett at anything above the league minimum.
Right. Brissett seems like a good guy and teammate from all accounts, and I understand why he was here last year to mentor Maye and offer some stability with 2 red shirt rookies on the roster, especially not knowing how Maye and Milton would develop. There’s value to having a veteran in the QB room (like Hoyer for many years).

But I never understood the point of giving a roster spot to a 3rd string QB who can’t play (frankly, like Hoyer). Brissett was dreadful. 59% completions, 168 yards his high in a game, 2 TDs. He didn’t turn the ball over much, but from the NYT in mid season:

The Pats are averaging 119 net passing yards per game, by far the worst in the NFL. Since 2010, only three teams have had a worse first five games passing the ball. They are averaging 12.4 points per game. Over the last five years, only two teams have managed fewer than that in the first five weeks: last year’s Patriots (11 points per game) and this Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins team that just came to Foxboro and won (they’re averaging 12 points per game).
 

Cellar-Door

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I don't think a Brissett return makes sense for either side.

For the Pats...
Not a real contender, Maye is clear starter, probably want to keep developing Milton, save money (and maybe add another late round QB, Packers style).

For Brissett...
Zero chance to start barring injury, probably not a winning team, even with improvements O-line is gonna be shaky. He's better off either taking more money, being a bridge QB, or signing with a good team. He'll have options, he may not be a starter, and he can't overcome a bad line, but he's one of the better backups, especially for a team that can protect a pocket passer.
 

Van Everyman

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Brissett also was pretty unhappy about something last year:

The struggles with Brissett under center can’t be attributed solely to him, and the veteran opened up about how those around him also contributed to a tough season.

“There’s so much I could say, but I guess, ‘not ideal.’ Obviously, a unique situation here,” he said last week, via ESPN’s Mike Reiss. “I’m not the one to make excuses, but at some point somebody is going to have to watch the film and understand what I was dealing with. I think that kind of speaks for itself. I think it’s very easy for people to blame the quarterback for things — that’s what this profession is — but yeah man, tough year.”
 
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Brissett is best served reprising his role as a bridge QB somewhere or going to a team where he can be a backup on a winning team who needs an experienced guy off the bench for emergency situations.

Doesn’t make sense to come back to the Pats given he will never get a chance to start absent multiple injuries and the team is likely going to be a basement dweller
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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Van, I'm curious if you think he's alluding to anything other than the few things I'm about to type, below

That line about "watch the film and understand what I was dealing with" makes it sound like more or less what's on his mind is visible during the game. That suggests to me he's referring to:
  • Offensive line doesn't run or pass block
  • Offensive line committing penalties that regularly get them into late down long yardage situations
  • Receivers running to the same spots on the field, not getting separation
  • Etc.
I'm guessing here, but if that's the stuff he's calling "not ideal"... well, yeah, I'd guess he and Vrabel would see eye-to-eye on that.

Not that Brissett should or will return, for all the reasons folks have said
 

Saints Rest

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To answer my own question, I don’t see Josh’s hiring as overcoming the various negatives many have laid out here from JB’s perspective, but I think JMcD might want him in the QB room as that bit of connection btw OC and young QB, in the same way we’ve written elsewhere about the value in those sorts of signings for a HC implementing a new culture. JB lived in the room under JMcD as a young QB.
 

GB5

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One of the prominent Twitterites, sorry I should have looked who it was suggested Flacco as Senior mentor for Maye
 

Van Everyman

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Van, I'm curious if you think he's alluding to anything other than the few things I'm about to type, below

That line about "watch the film and understand what I was dealing with" makes it sound like more or less what's on his mind is visible during the game. That suggests to me he's referring to:
  • Offensive line doesn't run or pass block
  • Offensive line committing penalties that regularly get them into late down long yardage situations
  • Receivers running to the same spots on the field, not getting separation
  • Etc.
I'm guessing here, but if that's the stuff he's calling "not ideal"... well, yeah, I'd guess he and Vrabel would see eye-to-eye on that.

Not that Brissett should or will return, for all the reasons folks have said
I think, yes, it’s exactly that – but also: that Jacoby felt he took a lot of the blame from the coaching staff for the bad results while he was on the field. Lest we forget, he also got absolutely killed behind the line the first few weeks of the season.

What’s not clear to me is whether he was also alluding in those remarks to hard feelings over how the switch to start Drake was handled. I know a lot of us were champing at the bit for Drake to start. But Jacoby may well have been promised something—a certain number of games, etc.—that the coaching staff ended up reneging on. And, as a competitor, even if you know the situation coming in, it’s gotta be hard to lose your job when your performance is arguably better than your coworkers who get to keep their jobs. As he said, that’s what this profession is.
 

DJnVa

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Brissett's comments have merit, but they should have been held until after the season.
 

BaseballJones

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Why would the Pats carry 3 QBs again? Milton isn’t the savior but I don’t see any reason to carry Brissett at anything above the league minimum.
Agree 100%. Let Jacoby go. Good soldier, good guy, capable backup, a guy you like having on your team, but Milton showed enough that he can be a serviceable backup most likely, and on a league minimum deal. Save the several million you would have spent on Jacoby and apply that money to another area of need.

It's actually an under appreciated aspect of Milton showing out well in that last game (against backups, but still) - they can save enough money at the QB position so that they probably can add one more actually good player at position of need with that money that's saved.
 

Justthetippett

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I don't think they need the cap space (they won't spend the entire cap this year) and I would still let him go. It was smart to bring him in. Show Drake the ropes, how to be a pro, etc. He did that. Now Drake needs to lead. Milton is a bonus but it's also better if he gets more reps in practice and camp. Brissett can fulfill his destiny as a high end back up with a vet QB someplace.
 

DavidTai

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I don't think they need the cap space (they won't spend the entire cap this year) and I would still let him go. It was smart to bring him in. Show Drake the ropes, how to be a pro, etc. He did that. Now Drake needs to lead. Milton is a bonus but it's also better if he gets more reps in practice and camp. Brissett can fulfill his destiny as a high end back up with a vet QB someplace.
I was thinking Miami, but they may want someone who could replace Tua.
 

dynomite

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To answer my own question, I don’t see Josh’s hiring as overcoming the various negatives many have laid out here from JB’s perspective, but I think JMcD might want him in the QB room as that bit of connection btw OC and young QB, in the same way we’ve written elsewhere about the value in those sorts of signings for a HC implementing a new culture. JB lived in the room under JMcD as a young QB.
I don’t know what I’m talking about, and I’ve never put a team together, but I hope this doesn’t happen. We don’t need to eat up a roster spot and cap space with a glorified coach, especially with 28-year-old Ashton Grant as the QB coach and one of the most experienced OCs in the league in McDaniels mentoring him.

If they wanted someone to play that role I would prefer to hire a retired QB (Hoyer?) to be the Asst. QB coach.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Rivers McCown at least thinks Tee Higgins is outta Cincinnati
It better come via tag and trade if it happens - letting him walk for only part of a comp. pick formula would be malpractice (although they specialize in that often). That being said, they also can't tag him and have him play on it again - it would be awful for locker room morale. As I've mentioned, I thought there's zero chance he was back two months ago but then he fired his agent (whose philosophies and the Bengals' mix like oil and water), hired Chase's and Burrow spoke publicly multiple times how he's a need. We'll just have to wait and see what the next few weeks bring.
 

NortheasternPJ

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He notes that it makes no sense not to tag him though. Tee Higgins isn't going to be a free agent should be a very big favorite in the betting market.
The fact that Chase and Higgins both have the same agent now makes this very complicated. Chase certainly isn't going to play under his existing contract, he dogged Camp and the Pats game this year because of it, he's not going to take any less than Higgins will get. Higgins is going to get about $28m on the tag. So the agent is going to be asking the Bengals for at least $36m at the minimum to make Chase the highest paid in the league, then also get Higgins to sign a multi-year deal at least $28m, but more likely a $35m. The Bengals could easily be in a situation where Chase wants $37m+, Higgins $35m+ they are conspiring together to get what they want.

They can franchise him and Higgins can not sign it and basically threaten the Bengals at anytime he can sign it which would hinder them in Free Agency (which the article says is a bad idea, which is true), he can hold out causing a mess or be a locker room cancer or he signs it and then they have $65m guaranteed on the cap for this year on two guys. I'm well aware the cap can be maneuvered but those two and Burrow is a huge number. It may not hurt them a ton but it'll be painful to work around.
 

Cellar-Door

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The fact that Chase and Higgins both have the same agent now makes this very complicated. Chase certainly isn't going to play under his existing contract, he dogged Camp and the Pats game this year because of it, he's not going to take any less than Higgins will get. Higgins is going to get about $28m on the tag. So the agent is going to be asking the Bengals for at least $36m at the minimum to make Chase the highest paid in the league, then also get Higgins to sign a multi-year deal at least $28m, but more likely a $35m. The Bengals could easily be in a situation where Chase wants $37m+, Higgins $35m+ they are conspiring together to get what they want.

They can franchise him and Higgins can not sign it and basically threaten the Bengals at anytime he can sign it which would hinder them in Free Agency (which the article says is a bad idea, which is true), he can hold out causing a mess or be a locker room cancer or he signs it and then they have $65m guaranteed on the cap for this year on two guys. I'm well aware the cap can be maneuvered but those two and Burrow is a huge number. It may not hurt them a ton but it'll be painful to work around.
Sure... but he's not going to hold out all year, because they'll trade him he has value. They'll pay Chase what they have to pay him, tag Higgins and if he won't sign their offer they'll trade him for assets to a team with a bunch of cap space who is willing to sign him to the deal he wants.
 

Rudy's Curve

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The fact that Chase and Higgins both have the same agent now makes this very complicated. Chase certainly isn't going to play under his existing contract, he dogged Camp and the Pats game this year because of it, he's not going to take any less than Higgins will get. Higgins is going to get about $28m on the tag. So the agent is going to be asking the Bengals for at least $36m at the minimum to make Chase the highest paid in the league, then also get Higgins to sign a multi-year deal at least $28m, but more likely a $35m. The Bengals could easily be in a situation where Chase wants $37m+, Higgins $35m+ they are conspiring together to get what they want.

They can franchise him and Higgins can not sign it and basically threaten the Bengals at anytime he can sign it which would hinder them in Free Agency (which the article says is a bad idea, which is true), he can hold out causing a mess or be a locker room cancer or he signs it and then they have $65m guaranteed on the cap for this year on two guys. I'm well aware the cap can be maneuvered but those two and Burrow is a huge number. It may not hurt them a ton but it'll be painful to work around.
Higgins is not getting $35MM on the open market, never mind from the Bengals. I'm not saying they're going to re-sign him, but the chances are infinitely better now that he shares Chase's agent than when he was with Mulugheta. Hopefully they work on an extension (using the tag to buy time if need be) and if it falls through, they trade him. I don't think he or they want to play on the tag again.
 

jsinger121

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Higgins is not getting $35MM on the open market, never mind from the Bengals. I'm not saying they're going to re-sign him, but the chances are infinitely better now that he shares Chase's agent than when he was with Mulugheta. Hopefully they work on an extension (using the tag to buy time if need be) and if it falls through, they trade him. I don't think he or they want to play on the tag again.
If I’m the Patriots I’m paying Higgins 35 million because that’s what it’s going to take to get him to New England as they have to pay a suck tax at this point.
 

tims4wins

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If I’m the Patriots I’m paying Higgins 35 million because that’s what it’s going to take to get him to New England as they have to pay a suck tax at this point.
FWIW ESPN projects Higgins at 4/$114M = $28.5 AAV = ~7th among WRs. Feels right in terms of his value but he may get more - it just takes one bidder.
 

rsmith7

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Maybe I've done too much DFS, but I'm not completely in on Higgins.
He missed 5 games last season and 2, 1 and 2 in the previous three seasons.
Lots of hamstring issues.
A young QB needs consistency. I'm concerned his soft tissue (I know most NFL injuries) injuries will increase.
 

jsinger121

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FWIW ESPN projects Higgins at 4/$114M = $28.5 AAV = ~7th among WRs. Feels right in terms of his value but he may get more - it just takes one bidder.
But if your New England you have to pay more than say the Chargers and Washington by a lot to land Higgins. That’s the price of being shitty.
 

tims4wins

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But if your New England you have to pay more than say the Chargers and Washington by a lot to land Higgins. That’s the price of being shitty.
I don't buy it. They have a real coach and a real QB now.

Edit: what I mean is you have to pay him the most, but you're not getting penalized. The most will be enough. Not the most plus 10% or whatever. IMO.
 

dynomite

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I don't buy it. They have a real coach and a real QB now.

Edit: what I mean is you have to pay him the most, but you're not getting penalized. The most will be enough. Not the most plus 10% or whatever. IMO.
Eh, hard to say but the Commanders and Chargers are already good, the Chargers play in warm weather in a dome, and the Commanders don’t have to go through Mahomes, Lamar, or Allen to get to a Super Bowl. Maye is exciting and Vrabel seems competent, but the Patriots are in the middle of a complete rebuild.

If you have to bet on one of these teams making a Super Bowl in the next two or three seasons, I think I’d pick the Pats last?
 

tims4wins

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Eh, hard to say but the Commanders and Chargers are already good, the Chargers play in warm weather in a dome, and the Commanders don’t have to go through Mahomes, Lamar, or Allen to get to a Super Bowl. Maye is exciting and Vrabel seems competent, but the Patriots are in the middle of a complete rebuild.

If you have to bet on one of these teams making a Super Bowl in the next two or three seasons, I think I’d pick the Pats last?
Fair but Washington was 4-13 in 2023.
 

jsinger121

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that’s kind of my point. Washington and New England both drafted their QB of the future last spring.

They made the NFC Championship game. We went 4-13.
And all things being equal Higgins is choosing Washington over New England. Hence where the Patriots have to blow him out of the water and not even a shade of being close.