After reviewing the last couple of drafts, it's fascinating to see how this year's talent stacks up against prior years. Overall the top-tier talent in this draft class is notably weak. It lacks the kind of special players that teams typically are desperate to trade up for. From a pure draft prospect perspective - ignoring how players have performed in the NFL - I would much rather have a top 6 or 7 pick from either of the last two drafts than the #1 overall this year.
Take quarterbacks, for example. Michael Penix, who went #8 last year, might be the first QB you'd rank below this year’s top options. At wide receiver, the three top-10 picks from last year’s draft would likely rank ahead of any WR in this class. On the offensive line, Joe Alt—who went #5 last year—would probably be the consensus #1 pick if he were part of this draft.
The only position groups where this year's class compares favorably in terms of top-end talent are cornerback (CB) and defensive line (DL). However, even in these areas, it falls short of producing true generational types like Myles Garrett or Aidan Hutchinson. Looking back at 2022, guys like Derek Stingley and Sauce Gardner went #3 and #4 respectively, and I wouldn’t rank anyone in this year’s class at their level as prospects.
The one player who seems to justify a #1 overall pick this year is Travis Hunter, mainly because of his potential to make an impact on both sides of the ball. However, I think the value of his two-way ability is being overvalued. As a pure CB or WR, he might not even be the best at his position in this draft class and he will need to focus on one side and be mostly a part-time guy on the other side.
Given the lack of elite top-end talent, I firmly believe the best move is to secure the #1 pick and trade down, even if the return is historically low for a top selection. The Patriots need to leave this draft with at least 3–4 starter-quality players and at least one cornerstone building block for the future. Trading down gives them the best chance to achieve that.
2023 |
2024 |
1. QB, Bryce Young |
1. QB, Caleb Williams |
2. QB, CJ Stroud |
2. QB, Jayden McDaniels |
3. Edge, Will Anderson |
3. QB, Drake Maye |
4. QB, Anthony Richardson |
4. WR, Marvin Harrison |
5. CB, Devon Witherspoon |
5. OT, Joe Alt |
6. OL, Paris Johnson |
6. WR, Malik Nabers |
7. Edge, Tyree Wilson |
7. OT, JC Latham |
8. RB, Bijan Robinson |
8. QB, Michael Penix |
9. DT, Jalen Carter |
9. WR, Rome Odunze |
10. OT, Darnell Wright |
10. QB, JJ McCarthy |
11. OT, Peter Skoronski |
11. OT, Olu Fashanu |
12. RB, Jahmyr Gibbs |
12. QB, Bo Nix |
13. Edge, Lukas Van Ness |
13. TE, Brock Bowers |
14. OT, Broderick Jones |
14. OL, Taliese Fuaga |
15. Edge, Will McDonald |
15. Edge, Laiatu Latu |