2025 Draft: Patriots Discussion

Oct 12, 2023
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Is there a downside to simply taking BPA at 3 and grabbing a stud for the DL, be that Graham or Carter?
BPA is almost certainly going to be Johnson or Hunter at 3.

I think they badly need another CB but not sure a CB 3rd overall would be ideal.

Graham would and should be a definite consideration. Their DL other than Barmore is terrible and Graham would be an instant difference maker
 
Oct 12, 2023
1,506
Any thoughts on Warren, the TE from Penn State? Big guy 6'6 260 with great positional flexibility. PS used him in the backfield, in line, in the slot and out wide yesterday. I was impressed.

Not really a position of need but if he was available early 2nd I'd take him. Most mocks seem to have him late first.
they just paid Henry. I don’t think Warren is special enough to warrant passing up real needs for. KC should take him to be the heir apparent to Kelce. He’d fit Pittsburgh or the Chargers nicely as well
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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The 'do you trade down in the top 10' question gets heavily influenced by how big a drop off there is between the guys who are going to go 3-5 and the guys who are going to go 8-10

Based on current standings, let's say the realistic trade (less than 1% difference in calculated pick value) is something like
  • New England gives 3 + 77
  • Chicago gives 9 + 35 + 41
At 3 you could take someone like Travis Hunter, Will Johnson, or Mason Graham

At 9 you could take someone like Kelvin Banks, Will Campbell, or Mykel Williams

Is adding 35 and 41 worth giving up the first for the second? Kinda depends on how much of a gap in fit/talent you see there...
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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I don’t trust the Pats to have a good plan on how to get the most out of him

I've seen a bunch of quotes on these lines the last few weeks, which feels like a weird angle to take since what you're endorsing for Hunter is more or less what the team has done this season with Marcus Jones.

Which is to say: they focused on getting the best out of him on the defensive side of the ball and makings sure he was all the way back from his injury, and only started to consider him on offense once those things were both true.

The only time a similar situation has come up this coaching staff acted the way you say Hunter should be managed. But you don't trust them to do this again? FWIW-- which might not be much-- but that feels weird...
 

Devizier

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I've been following some of the draft chatter and it seems like no one seems to link the Patriots to the consensus top WR in the draft (Tetairoa McMillan). He'll probably be on the board when they pick, although he may be a reach at that spot? Obviously it's never a good idea to draft for need, but premier wide receivers are not going to be easily found in free agency.

He seems to be on the slower side, but would he fit as an X with the Patriots?
 
Oct 12, 2023
1,506
I've seen a bunch of quotes on these lines the last few weeks, which feels like a weird angle to take since what you're endorsing for Hunter is more or less what the team has done this season with Marcus Jones.

Which is to say: they focused on getting the best out of him on the defensive side of the ball and makings sure he was all the way back from his injury, and only started to consider him on offense once those things were both true.

The only time a similar situation has come up this coaching staff acted the way you say Hunter should be managed. But you don't trust them to do this again? FWIW-- which might not be much-- but that feels weird...
Marcus Jones is a marginal NFL player

Travis Hunter would be the 3rd (or 4th) overall pick and the centerpiece of the Pats offseason. You need to have a plan to develop him as an elite corner (not an ok slot nickel/dime guy) while also finding creative ways to use him on offense to maximize his value but not take anything away from his ability to flourish on D

Or you need to develop him as a full time WR

AVP seems adequate if uninspiring as an OC. I don’t see “creative genius” really in his repertoire. Covington seems awful. Mayo seems clueless.

what players - other than Maye - could you really say this coaching staff has developed this year? Who has taken a step forward? Gonzalez looks great but he looked great in the limited time we saw him last year. Almost everyone looks worse.

a unique talent who is going to need special handling is not a project I want this front office or coaching staff responsible for. Not with the 3rd overall pick.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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That's fair

And I don't know if what follows is going to make any sense anywhere outside my head, but I might agree/disagree in the following convoluted way...

I (also) share your concerns about the degree to which the coaching staff is good at the whole 'draft and develop' thing. Now, how much of this is Wolf's teams' fault for poor evaluation and how much is the coaches fault for not turning chicken sh*t into chicken salad? It's like asking how many bad offensive linemen can dance on the head of pin.

That concern doesn't lead me to favor or shy away from any of the top draft picks, tho.

If you see Travis Hunter (as we both seem to) as a full-time CB-- who might get something like ~5 snaps a game as a 'z' receiver in certain situations-- then coaching him isn't going to require some special, additional, secret juju that the coaching staff hasn't shown us before. They just need to do what they've been doing with Marcus Jones. Which is pick a few plays a week in which to use him, do their research to make sure he hasn't been used in this way before so the other team doesn't anticipate what's happening faster, and find time for him to prep with the offense.

Either all are fucked together or none are. But my read of the coaching staff isn't that Travis Hunter is particularly or uniquely fucked if the front office and coaches are as bad as we suspect they might be
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Hunter is such a unique prospect. There really isn't much to go on in terms of precedent (he's a way better and more natural WR than other two way WR/DBs like Champ Bailey or, even more so, Charles Woodson) so there seems to be a pretty wide range of possibilities for how he might integrate into the NFL. Obviously playing full time on both offense and defense seems unrealistic, both in terms of the physical toll and the prep required. And I think its also pretty clear that it would be easier to be a full time CB and part time WR than the reverse. But just how much you could get out of him on the WR side seems pretty hard to tell. As a WR he feels a bit like Devonta Smith - a natural football player and smooth athlete that might adjust pretty easily to playing WR in the NFL, but also a guy you worry a little about holding up physically. And playing both sides of the ball isn't going to help with that.

I wouldn't assume that he could only be a five snap kind of gadget player on offense. It feels like there are realistic scenarios where he could be out there 20-30 snaps per game and giving you very strong #2 type WR production during those snaps. But its hard to predict.
 
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Oct 12, 2023
1,506
I've been following some of the draft chatter and it seems like no one seems to link the Patriots to the consensus top WR in the draft (Tetairoa McMillan). He'll probably be on the board when they pick, although he may be a reach at that spot? Obviously it's never a good idea to draft for need, but premier wide receivers are not going to be easily found in free agency.

He seems to be on the slower side, but would he fit as an X with the Patriots?
I think McMillan is definitely worth a top 10 pick but not sure he’s worth the 3rd or 4th pick. Graham, Johnson and Hunter are superior prospects

Will be interesting to see what McMillan runs (if he runs) at his pro day and/or combine. That could move him up or down a little bit. His size/speed is such a big part of the draw. Nobody thinks he’s fast but “pretty good for his size”. If his size is inflated (as it sometimes is at college) and he’s a 4.6 40 guy, that’s a cause for concern and could drop him out of the top 5-7. If he’s a legit 6’5 215 and runs 4.57 or something, he’s going to draw Mike Evans comps (Evans was obviously better as a prospect)
 
Oct 12, 2023
1,506
Hunter is such a unique prospect. There really isn't much to go on in terms of precedent (he's a way better and more natural WR than other two way WR/DBs like Champ Bailey or, even more so, Charles Woodson) so there seems to be a pretty wide range of possibilities for how he might integrate into the NFL. Obviously playing full time on both offense and defense seems unrealistic, both in terms of the physical toll and the prep required. And I think its also pretty clear that it would be easier to be a full time CB and part time WR than the reverse. But just how much you could get out of him on the WR side seems pretty hard to tell. As a WR he feels a bit like Devonta Smith - a natural football player and smooth athlete that might adjust pretty easily to playing WR in the NFL, but also a guy you worry a little about holding up physically. And playing both sides of the ball isn't going to help with that.

I wouldn't assume that he could only be a five snap kind of gadget player on offense. It feels like there are realistic scenarios where he could be out there 20-30 snaps per game and giving you very strong #2 type WR production during those snaps. But its hard to predict.
30 snaps a game on offense is like 100 total snaps combined? He can’t even hold up physically in college, I’d be really worried about my lockdown corner pulling a hamstring running a go route or blowing out his knee getting tackled on a WR screen.

I just don’t see him being able to handle the workload of learning both sides of the ball (to be more than a gadget offense guy). It’s a monumental ask to not just beat the odds and translate college success to pro success but do it at two spots simultaneously.

and TBH I don’t know that 30 snaps of “#2 WR production” is worth the wear and tear or distraction from my (hoped to be) lock down corner

like in a world where the Pats are making a strong run for the playoffs and Hunter has to match up against (e.g.) Ja’marr Chase or Justin Jefferson, do you really want Hunter spending any focus or energy on offense being a #2/3 WR? I just don’t see how that works.

all that said, he has a reputation for being incredibly hard working, high football IQ and whatnot so if anyone could do it, it seems to be him. I just don’t think it’s a good bet and I wouldn’t draft him on two way ability. And if you take that two way stuff out of the picture, he’s not worth the #3 overall pick for the Patriots.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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30 snaps a game on offense is like 100 total snaps combined? He can’t even hold up physically in college, I’d be really worried about my lockdown corner pulling a hamstring running a go route or blowing out his knee getting tackled on a WR screen.

I just don’t see him being able to handle the workload of learning both sides of the ball (to be more than a gadget offense guy). It’s a monumental ask to not just beat the odds and translate college success to pro success but do it at two spots simultaneously.

and TBH I don’t know that 30 snaps of “#2 WR production” is worth the wear and tear or distraction from my (hoped to be) lock down corner

like in a world where the Pats are making a strong run for the playoffs and Hunter has to match up against (e.g.) Ja’marr Chase or Justin Jefferson, do you really want Hunter spending any focus or energy on offense being a #2/3 WR? I just don’t see how that works.

all that said, he has a reputation for being incredibly hard working, high football IQ and whatnot so if anyone could do it, it seems to be him. I just don’t think it’s a good bet and I wouldn’t draft him on two way ability. And if you take that two way stuff out of the picture, he’s not worth the #3 overall pick for the Patriots.
I think its honestly just hard to know, which I agree makes it a pretty risky bet from a ceiling perspective since his ceiling value does rest on some degree of that two way potential. There's basically no modern precedent for a WR/CB player this good on both sides of the ball coming into the NFL and there are a range of plausible outcomes.

The flip side is that while its a risky bet from a ceiling perspective (because as a one way player you probably don't want to use the #3 pick on him), you could argue that he's a safer bet than most from a floor perspective because if he unexpectedly struggles at CB you can potentially just convert him to a decent #2 full time WR.
 

DJnVa

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Can probably ignore the actual picks at this point, but I was interested in what trades were offered.

Got #4 and a future 2nd to move down a pick. Then #5 and another future 2nd to move down another pick. I'd probably do that unless someone goes nuts in pre-draft and fits us perfectly after free agency.

93302
 

JokersWildJIMED

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Love Tyler Warren…know TE is not a position of “need” but man, him and Maye could be special. Might be worth moving back into the first round to snag him.
 

PRabbit

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Most positions are "needs" outside of QB1 and CB1, pass catching talent in particular. Warren should be looked at seriously TE or not.
 

NomarsFool

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I think I'd gladly move down a few spots to pick up some extra 2nd. 2nd round picks are still a good place to pick up starter caliber players. Of course, the Patriots have been atrocious in the 2nd round lately - but that's a different issue.
 

Jimbodandy

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Can probably ignore the actual picks at this point, but I was interested in what trades were offered.

Got #4 and a future 2nd to move down a pick. Then #5 and another future 2nd to move down another pick. I'd probably do that unless someone goes nuts in pre-draft and fits us perfectly after free agency.

View attachment 93302
I'd club a baby seal if it meant getting this draft.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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Got #4 and a future 2nd to move down a pick. Then #5 and another future 2nd to move down another pick. I'd probably do that unless someone goes nuts in pre-draft and fits us perfectly after free agency.

There's no way to know for sure, but I'm curious how many teams will value draft picks the way they have in the past, given what we're hearing about the talent distribution in this year's pool

Did a draft simulation a little while in which I repeatedly traded down from #3 to #13 and ended up with three extra picks high in the second round and three extra picks in the third round.

In the real world if we had nine picks spread across the first three rounds we could probably restock a whole bunch of positions



Edit/update: Not that anyone should care, but I'm typing it up here so I can find it in the future... that nine-picks-in-three-rounds produced:

On Offense:
  • OLine: Josh Simmons, T; Josh Conerly, T; Tyler Booker, iOL; Charles Grant, T
  • WR: Tre Harris, xWR
On defense:
  • Line: Landon Jackson
  • LB: Jihaad Campbell
  • DB: Trey Amos, corner; Nick Emmanwori, S
 
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DJnVa

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I think what we should hope for is getting #2 and then Tennessee, Cleveland, and whoever falls to #3 between the Raiders and Giants deciding they want to get one of the 2 QBs.
 

OnWisc

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This is 100% vibes and 0% analysis, but the more McMillan highlights I watch, the more I'm hoping they go in that direction. Then figure out another way to address the line. The way he moves and can snatch the ball out of the air, even the routine plays kinda look like highlights.
 

ManhattanRedSox

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This was a fun one where I was trading back often to get draft capital for next year, while still trying to hit on current needs. Would be great to add Higgins in FA on top of this:

93405
 

j44thor

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A bit sobering that 2026 draft class looks very similar and possibly worse at the skill positions than this season. 2027 shaping up to be special. Jeremiah Smith, just turned 19, would prob be first WR drafted in 2025 if eligible, Ryan Williams is only 17 and would likely go later in 1st as well.
I'd love to pick up some 26 draft equity for the primary purpose of flipping it for 27 equity.
 

DJnVa

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Sounds good, but a regime that's already under fire likely won't kick the can too far down the road. Not to mention taking advantage of Maye's rookie deal.

I have a feeling we'll see Nesbitt on a lot of these, as Maye's former teammate. And Skattebo cuz he just seems cool.
 

Jake Peavy's Demons

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Well, with the Barmore news, you can add DT to the 'dire needs' list. This team is so bad; literally every position needs to be addressed besides QB, TE (if they have plans to keep Hooper), & arguably RB.

It is just so frustrating that a year later, we still desperately need help at our #2/#3 positions, OT/WR, whichever order you prefer.

My players I'm eye-balling in this draft below. Many (if not all) posters here are more knowledgeable than I, so if a name I dropped is not scheme-eligible, please correct me. With that said, hopefully we get a new HC/GM anyway.

While the future outlooks of Will Campbell & Kelvin Banks Jr. have been discussed here often, I still think if the opportunity arises to trade down & they are on the table, it is OK to draft 1 of them with the idea of playing OG. Not the most exciting thing, sure. But it seems based off of my amateur research, the Gs are in a stronger position this draft than the Ts.

And it seems Ersery & Savaiinaea are considered solid OTs, & Josh Simmons up there if not for the injury scares. I've seen Cameron Williams pop up on discussion, but he was flagged very often at UT's RT spot, & that worries me.

Really, we need 4 new starters across the O-Line, and I'm weary about Onwenu's future success. Yes, there are some FAs out there that could help, & Ronnie Stanley is the dream signing, but you can't put all your eggs in 1 basket. Then, there is the Strange problem. Is he our future C?

I think between Campbell, Banks Jr., Wyatt Milum, Tate Ratledge, & Tyler Booker, there are enough bodies there where someone could come in and do a better job with more upside at LG, if Onwenu returns to RG. Then maybe you have an IOL of X/Strange/Onwenu that could do a job. But then there are still the tackles...

WRs aren't any easier. Our WRs are so bad, and while ideally we draft an X high in the draft, really you can make an argument on a trade down to go Isaiah Bond/Luther Burden III/Emeka Egbuka. The only WRs I'm interested in keeping are Pop Douglas, & maybe Bourne to provide some sort of veteran 'presence'. We get excited about the idea of a true #1/X player to slate everybody down a slot to make our corp, but it also wouldn't be the worst thing to double-dip at WRs with one of the Z triumvirate, if we can trade down. Personally, Tetairoa McMillian is my favourite player in this draft, but Elic Ayomanor wouldn't be a bad consolation prize as an X.

Of course, we need help at all 3 levels of defence too. While Mason Graham could fill right in for Barmore's shoes, between the strong classes of DTs available, both FA & draft, that may not be the best value, especially at #3 overall; or, he could be the next Aaron Donald - who knows, this is all a guessing game anyway.

But I'd love to see us pour draft equity into an edge rusher or a CB if we are drafting D high. Travis Hunter's name has been thrown around often, and for good reason, but don't forget Will Johnson too. Him opposite Gonzalez would be great, but how impactful would having 2 great corners be for a team such as this one? We lose often next year as teams gash us with their running attack, & Maye is still having no O-Line nor WR help?

Malaki Starks is a name for S that seems to be flexible in the box or slot or deep cover. I'd welcome him as a trade-down candidate.

Mykel Williams, Abdul Carter, Princely Umanmielen, James Pearce Jr. are all desirable names for edge, & even a guy like JT Tuimoloau for the 2nd round.

And Jihaad Campbell & Harold Perkins Jr. have been scouted and are supposed to be able to support as cover-LBs, which we could also use. I've seen early-to-mid 2nd round grades on them.

So many holes, but there are some names out there that seem they could help us, and in quick order. Time is of the essence: make the most of Maye's rookie deal as you can. Now is not the time to be lax. Try to fill in as many holes as you can this draft, and use FA to supplement. Recruit Stanley/the LAR LT heavily in FA, and go draft some players. It sucks that this draft (& the next) are considered light, but we can't do anything about that.

My personal dream is to trade down, & still be able to draft Tet. Then with (ideally) 2 picks in the 2nd, use that to trade up in the 1st, or grab the best 2 players in the OT/IOL/EDGE/LB/CB/S realm. And of course, in FA, Stanley. Provide leadership for the line, help anchor down that LT spot.

Getting 3/4 new starters for the O-Line is not realistic. Or is it? Lots of turn-around for the final 53 in 2025, but I can count on 1 hand the number of players I'm interested in keeping for 2025+.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Well, with the Barmore news, you can add DT to the 'dire needs' list. This team is so bad; literally every position needs to be addressed besides QB, TE (if they have plans to keep Hooper), & arguably RB.

It is just so frustrating that a year later, we still desperately need help at our #2/#3 positions, OT/WR, whichever order you prefer.

My players I'm eye-balling in this draft below. Many (if not all) posters here are more knowledgeable than I, so if a name I dropped is not scheme-eligible, please correct me. With that said, hopefully we get a new HC/GM anyway.

While the future outlooks of Will Campbell & Kelvin Banks Jr. have been discussed here often, I still think if the opportunity arises to trade down & they are on the table, it is OK to draft 1 of them with the idea of playing OG. Not the most exciting thing, sure. But it seems based off of my amateur research, the Gs are in a stronger position this draft than the Ts.

And it seems Ersery & Savaiinaea are considered solid OTs, & Josh Simmons up there if not for the injury scares. I've seen Cameron Williams pop up on discussion, but he was flagged very often at UT's RT spot, & that worries me.

Really, we need 4 new starters across the O-Line, and I'm weary about Onwenu's future success. Yes, there are some FAs out there that could help, & Ronnie Stanley is the dream signing, but you can't put all your eggs in 1 basket. Then, there is the Strange problem. Is he our future C?

I think between Campbell, Banks Jr., Wyatt Milum, Tate Ratledge, & Tyler Booker, there are enough bodies there where someone could come in and do a better job with more upside at LG, if Onwenu returns to RG. Then maybe you have an IOL of X/Strange/Onwenu that could do a job. But then there are still the tackles...

WRs aren't any easier. Our WRs are so bad, and while ideally we draft an X high in the draft, really you can make an argument on a trade down to go Isaiah Bond/Luther Burden III/Emeka Egbuka. The only WRs I'm interested in keeping are Pop Douglas, & maybe Bourne to provide some sort of veteran 'presence'. We get excited about the idea of a true #1/X player to slate everybody down a slot to make our corp, but it also wouldn't be the worst thing to double-dip at WRs with one of the Z triumvirate, if we can trade down. Personally, Tetairoa McMillian is my favourite player in this draft, but Elic Ayomanor wouldn't be a bad consolation prize as an X.

Of course, we need help at all 3 levels of defence too. While Mason Graham could fill right in for Barmore's shoes, between the strong classes of DTs available, both FA & draft, that may not be the best value, especially at #3 overall; or, he could be the next Aaron Donald - who knows, this is all a guessing game anyway.

But I'd love to see us pour draft equity into an edge rusher or a CB if we are drafting D high. Travis Hunter's name has been thrown around often, and for good reason, but don't forget Will Johnson too. Him opposite Gonzalez would be great, but how impactful would having 2 great corners be for a team such as this one? We lose often next year as teams gash us with their running attack, & Maye is still having no O-Line nor WR help?

Malaki Starks is a name for S that seems to be flexible in the box or slot or deep cover. I'd welcome him as a trade-down candidate.

Mykel Williams, Abdul Carter, Princely Umanmielen, James Pearce Jr. are all desirable names for edge, & even a guy like JT Tuimoloau for the 2nd round.

And Jihaad Campbell & Harold Perkins Jr. have been scouted and are supposed to be able to support as cover-LBs, which we could also use. I've seen early-to-mid 2nd round grades on them.

So many holes, but there are some names out there that seem they could help us, and in quick order. Time is of the essence: make the most of Maye's rookie deal as you can. Now is not the time to be lax. Try to fill in as many holes as you can this draft, and use FA to supplement. Recruit Stanley/the LAR LT heavily in FA, and go draft some players. It sucks that this draft (& the next) are considered light, but we can't do anything about that.

My personal dream is to trade down, & still be able to draft Tet. Then with (ideally) 2 picks in the 2nd, use that to trade up in the 1st, or grab the best 2 players in the OT/IOL/EDGE/LB/CB/S realm. And of course, in FA, Stanley. Provide leadership for the line, help anchor down that LT spot.

Getting 3/4 new starters for the O-Line is not realistic. Or is it? Lots of turn-around for the final 53 in 2025, but I can count on 1 hand the number of players I'm interested in keeping for 2025+.
They’ll need a starter or two at OL out of the draft, and a few guys like Strange or Wallace emerging as legitimate players is key. Nobody puts together a good OL without some unexpected hits in the middle rounds.
 

DJnVa

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Not sure if the AI hasn't caught up, but the PFN mock draft has the updated draft slot, but it's sending ZERO trade offers for #2, which seems odd to me.
 

tims4wins

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Not sure if the AI hasn't caught up, but the PFN mock draft has the updated draft slot, but it's sending ZERO trade offers for #2, which seems odd to me.
Not only that, it rejected my proposal to the Raiders of 6 and 37 (I tried also adding a 2026 1st or 2nd). I find it HIGHLY unlikely the Raiders would not trade just 6 and 37 for 2.

Edit: best I've been able to do is 9 + 40 with Chicago (who obviously wouldn't trade up for 2)
 
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jk333

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Not only that, it rejected my proposal to the Raiders of 6 and 37 (I tried also adding a 2026 1st or 2nd). I find it HIGHLY unlikely the Raiders would not trade just 6 and 37 for 2.

Edit: best I've been able to do is 9 + 40 with Chicago (who obviously wouldn't trade up for 2)
Titans, Browns, Raiders; it’s hard to imagine at least one not liking the 2nd qb enough to offer a pick swap and their 2nd.

Ideally it would be both the Raiders and one of the other 2 and then you could ask for a bit more from the Raiders… Probably just wait until the draft order is set at year end to dive into the what ifs too much though.
 

tims4wins

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Titans, Browns, Raiders; it’s hard to imagine at least one not liking the 2nd qb enough to offer a pick swap and their 2nd.

Ideally it would be both the Raiders and one of the other 2 and then you could ask for a bit more from the Raiders… Probably just wait until the draft order is set at year end to dive into the what ifs too much though.
Yeah I think we'd all be pretty happy with anything in the 5-10 range + that team's 2nd rounder + additional 2026 capital. History shows that when teams trade up for a QB, they give up a lot. I'm asking the Raiders for 6 + 37 + 2026 1st at a minimum.
 

NomarsFool

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They desperately need to acquire one stud OL and one stud WR in FA, and then add at least one of each in the first or second round. Maybe at that point Strange or Wallace and maybe a 3rd rounder can emerge as a starter. Good OLs come from developing / getting lucky with mid round picks as it’s just not possible to draft 5 OL in the first round.
 

j44thor

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Better hope PIT beats KC this week. If KC and BUF both win this week BUF is locked into 2 seed. Would have nothing to play for week 18. If BUF loses to NYJ BAL could still get 2 seed I think.
If BUF has 2 seed wrapped up have to imagine Josh doesn't make the trip to NE.
 

DJnVa

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Better hope PIT beats KC this week. If KC and BUF both win this week BUF is locked into 2 seed. Would have nothing to play for week 18. If BUF loses to NYJ BAL could still get 2 seed I think.
If BUF has 2 seed wrapped up have to imagine Josh doesn't make the trip to NE.
Yeah, this is being discussed in the thread in the main Pats forum. We need to be Steelers fans on Xmas.

Do teams really sit their QB a lot? I just can’t remember if we’ve seen that a lot.
Well, it might depend on his "injury" that he tweaked yesterday. If the game becomes meaningless, I can see him taking the week off.
 

j44thor

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Yeah, this is being discussed in the thread in the main Pats forum. We need to be Steelers fans on Xmas.



Well, it might depend on his "injury" that he tweaked yesterday. If the game becomes meaningless, I can see him taking the week off.
Just saw that, forgot we have dueling draft pick threads.
 

cshea

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306, row 14
Do teams really sit their QB a lot? I just can’t remember if we’ve seen that a lot.
Teams handle it differently but given Allen clearly looked injured at the end of yesterday's game I think there's a high probability he wouldn't play week 18 if their seeding is locked in. I could even see him sitting this week if KC wins on Wednesday.
 
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DJnVa

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Teams handle it differently but given Allen clearly looked injured at the end of yesterday's game I think there's a high probability he wouldn't play week 18 if their seeding is locked in. I could even see him sitting this week if KC wins on Wednesday.
Well, if he sits this week and they lose, then they could be caught by the Ravens.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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Ideally it would be both the Raiders and one of the other 2 and then you could ask for a bit more
Yeah I think we'd all be pretty happy with anything in the 5-10 range + that team's 2nd rounder + additional 2026 capital
Send: 2, 69
Receive: 3, 34, 70, 94, 2026 2nd

Sold.
If the dominoes fell right, the way to maximize the rookie talent coming out of the draft is probably something like:
  • Trade down from #2 in a deal that gets us #3 so that a QB-desperate team can get their man
  • Trade down from #3 in a deal that gets us #4 so that a Travis Hunter-obsessed team can get their man
  • Trade down from #4 to something in the #6-#12 range so that another team that has fallen in love with a particular prospect can get their man
Use the above to add picks high in the second round and elsewhere

With all our picks, take whoever slides below consensus/value regardless of position. The bigger the slide the better.

I just did a mock draft on these principles, with the added wrinkled that I used some picks to trade up and get a second pick in the top 15 (to get a second slider).

Ended up with:
  • Round 1 - Mason Graham, DL (#8); Will Campbell, iOL (#12)
  • Round 2 - Benjamin Morrison, CB; Landon Jackson, DL; Jihaad Campbell, LB; Tyler Booker, iOL
  • Round 3 - Elic Ayomanor, WR; Marcus Mbow, T

Picking for value when you end up with a bunch of picks in the top 60 you have a chance to really boost our talent

Six guys on that list could easily start for us week 1 of next year
 

chilidawg

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If the dominoes fell right, the way to maximize the rookie talent coming out of the draft is probably something like:
  • Trade down from #2 in a deal that gets us #3 so that a QB-desperate team can get their man
  • Trade down from #3 in a deal that gets us #4 so that a Travis Hunter-obsessed team can get their man
  • Trade down from #4 to something in the #6-#12 range so that another team that has fallen in love with a particular prospect can get their man
Use the above to add picks high in the second round and elsewhere

With all our picks, take whoever slides below consensus/value regardless of position. The bigger the slide the better.

I just did a mock draft on these principles, with the added wrinkled that I used some picks to trade up and get a second pick in the top 15 (to get a second slider).

Ended up with:
  • Round 1 - Mason Graham, DL (#8); Will Campbell, iOL (#12)
  • Round 2 - Benjamin Morrison, CB; Landon Jackson, DL; Jihaad Campbell, LB; Tyler Booker, iOL
  • Round 3 - Elic Ayomanor, WR; Marcus Mbow, T

Picking for value when you end up with a bunch of picks in the top 60 you have a chance to really boost our talent

Six guys on that list could easily start for us week 1 of next year
Yes please.
 

Devizier

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Sadly that kind of stepladder trade down is wildly unrealistic
The only time I can think of it happening with a high first rounder is Chicago (2003).

Traded from 4 to get the Jets’ two first rounders (13 and 22). Would have worked fine except they traded 13 (Ty Warren) for 14 (Michael Haynes) and a 6th rounder.

The Jets took Dewayne Robinson with the 4th pick, no big loss there, but Terrence Newman, Jordan Gross, Kevin Williams, Terrell Suggs, and Marcus Trufant went in between 4-13.

They did get Rex Grossman at 22, which was fine. They would have done much better waiting a year on their quarterback, though.
 

Cellar-Door

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The only time I can think of it happening with a high first rounder is Chicago (2003).

Traded from 4 to get the Jets’ two first rounders (13 and 22). Would have worked fine except they traded 13 (Ty Warren) for 14 (Michael Haynes) and a 6th rounder.

The Jets took Dewayne Robinson with the 4th pick, no big loss there, but Terrence Newman, Jordan Gross, Kevin Williams, Terrell Suggs, and Marcus Trufant went in between 4-13.

They did get Rex Grossman at 22, which was fine. They would have done much better waiting a year on their quarterback, though.
yeah, it's really rare, but in particular... 2 to 3, then 3 to 4 then another top 10ish pick... that's the part that just doesn't ring true. The only time I could ever see that would be if there were 4 elite QB prospects but even then... unlikely.
 

jk333

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I assume the double trade down is more of a political/optics issue than actual evaluation. And to @Cellar-Door point- multiple QBs could be enough to overcome that.

I also did 2 trade downs and ended up with this draft:

IMG_4191.jpeg
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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Getting caught up after being away and offline for several days, because holidays

@Cellar-Door is right, that this kinda multiple-trade down in the top deals are very rare, and also unlikely this year. This is what I was kind of hand-waving at with the "If the dominoes fell right..." disclaimer

Let's play with some ballpark odds and take a wild-ass guess that...
  • If we end up at #2 the odds that we can pull off a mutually-agreeable trade down with a QB-hungry team is 60-70%
  • If we're at #3 the odds that we can pull off a mutually-agreeable trade down with a Travis-unter-hungry team is 20-30%
  • If we're at #4 the odds that we can pull off a mutually-agreeable trade down with a 'some-other-prospect-hungry' team is also 20-30%
Put those probabilities together and we might estimate the odds of pulling off all three as somewhere between 2.5% and 6.3%

So, pretty unlikely.
 

NomarsFool

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It only takes one, but I'm personally sceptical there's anyone desperate for a shot at Travis Hunter. Do we see many teams trading up to draft a non-QB?
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Getting caught up after being away and offline for several days, because holidays

@Cellar-Door is right, that this kinda multiple-trade down in the top deals are very rare, and also unlikely this year. This is what I was kind of hand-waving at with the "If the dominoes fell right..." disclaimer

Let's play with some ballpark odds and take a wild-ass guess that...
  • If we end up at #2 the odds that we can pull off a mutually-agreeable trade down with a QB-hungry team is 60-70%
  • If we're at #3 the odds that we can pull off a mutually-agreeable trade down with a Travis-unter-hungry team is 20-30%
  • If we're at #4 the odds that we can pull off a mutually-agreeable trade down with a 'some-other-prospect-hungry' team is also 20-30%
Put those probabilities together and we might estimate the odds of pulling off all three as somewhere between 2.5% and 6.3%

So, pretty unlikely.
You can only put those odds together if the particular hungry team happens to be #3 and then #4, right?
 

BigJimEd

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It only takes one, but I'm personally sceptical there's anyone desperate for a shot at Travis Hunter. Do we see many teams trading up to draft a non-QB?
Texans traded up for Will Anderson in 2023. Miami traded back up for Waddle in '21.