2025 Draft: Patriots Discussion

[IdiotKicker]

I am all in on a trade down to 8-12 and grabbing Luther Burden while accumulating an additional 1st next year. I know OL is a need, but a receiver who can separate on his own and then make plays in the open field is a huge add. Might be slot-limited at first but has everything needed to eventually be able to play all over the field. Given the lack of a true top-end OT prospect this year, take what’s available and get loaded up at WR with Burden and Higgins so Maye has Higgins/Burden/Pop/Boutte and all of a sudden there’s a nice looking WR room with a couple matchup problems and guys down the depth chart who can operate better with less focus on them.

 

[Norm loves Vera]

Where is Simmon's on OT draft hierarchy post surgery? A quick google landed me at NFLDraftbuzz which as him as a late 1st rounder and #5 OT in the draft. I have never heard of that site.

 

[chilidawg]

PFF has him at 31, also 5th OT. Tankathon the same. Sounds like some group think.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2025-nfl-three-round-mock-draft-wr-cb-travis-hunter-and-qb-shedeur-sanders-go-no-1-and-no-2-new-york-giants-get-their-future-qb

https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/mock_draft

 

[Saints Rest]

My current feeling and this will likely change a lot before April, is that the Pats should be thinking this way in the offseason:

1. Use 1st round pick on BPA, but barring that go McMillan and lock up an ace WR for the next 5 years to give Maye what he desperately needs.
2. All the rest of the draft should just be BPA. Stop reaching for players and just go chalk.
3. Use free agency to find OT, Edge, and LB help.

https://www.pff.com/news/2025-nfl-free-agency-primer-top-10-free-agents-at-every-position

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

I am all in on a trade down to 8-12 and grabbing Luther Burden while accumulating an additional 1st next year. I know OL is a need, but a receiver who can separate on his own and then make plays in the open field is a huge add. Might be slot-limited at first but has everything needed to eventually be able to play all over the field. Given the lack of a true top-end OT prospect this year, take what’s available and get loaded up at WR with Burden and Higgins so Maye has Higgins/Burden/Pop/Boutte and all of a sudden there’s a nice looking WR room with a couple matchup problems and guys down the depth chart who can operate better with less focus on them.

Luther Burden is an all-time name. I don't know anything about him, but sign me up!

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

Where is Simmons on OT draft hierarchy post surgery?

This isn't really your question but I've heard some scouts say that pre-surgery he was playing well enough to be in the discussion for the best OT in the draft. Post-surgery is probably going to come down to what he shows in workouts and what the team doctors say about his medical file.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

FWIW, we all can (and many do) read the same people online evaluating this draft class. And since we're now ~80% of the way through the college football season you can see people's opinions starting to come together, since the game footage they have right now is most of what it's going to be.

To pull together some comments that I've heard directly or indirectly from a bunch of professional and amateur scouts...

• This year the top of the first round is weak compared to most years, and last year. More specifically,
  • If you combined this year and last year's draft classes, the only player from this year's class who would get drafted top 10 is Travis Hunter
    • The rest of the guys who go top 10 this year all have something about them that raises questions for a bunch of teams. (E.g. Mason Graham has short arms that may make it hard for him to shed good NFL linemen; a bunch of teams see Will Campbell and Kelvin Banks as guards in the pros; etc.)
    • Partly because of this NFL teams are going to have wildly different rankings of the players taken 2-15ish. One team's second-best guy is going to be a different team's 12th-best guy. That's unusual for the top of the first round.
  • Only about ~15 guys in this class are going to have first round grades from most NFL teams. The rest of the players taken in the first round would be second-rounders in most years
• After the first round this is much more of a 'normal' draft. The guys who will be available in the third or fourth round round aren't seen as particularly weak or strong for the third or fourth round

Putting that all together...

Teams may or may not offer a lot to move down from, say, #4 to #10. But teams might offer a lot more to move down from #4 to #20. Would that be worth it? Depends on how confident your assessment of who's available at #20, and what they're putting on the table.

An extra first round pick in a future draft may be more valuable than a pick in the 20s this year, for example...

 

[Cellar-Door]

On Simmons a couple people have said he was a riser who might have ended up as the top OT if he kept playing well. If he's all the way back and tests/measures well could be in the mix with Campbell/Banks

Edit I think it was Brugler and Sikkema

 

[j44thor]

FWIW, we all can (and many do) read the same people online evaluating this draft class. And since we're now ~80% of the way through the college football season you can see people's opinions starting to come together, since the game footage they have right now is most of what it's going to be.

To pull together some comments that I've heard directly or indirectly from a bunch of professional and amateur scouts...

• This year the top of the first round is weak compared to most years, and last year. More specifically,
  • If you combined this year and last year's draft classes, the only player from this year's class who would get drafted top 10 is Travis Hunter
    • The rest of the guys who go top 10 this year all have something about them that raises questions for a bunch of teams. (E.g. Mason Graham has short arms that may make it hard for him to shed good NFL linemen; a bunch of teams see Will Campbell and Kelvin Banks as guards in the pros; etc.)
    • Partly because of this NFL teams are going to have wildly different rankings of the players taken 2-15ish. One team's second-best guy is going to be a different team's 12th-best guy. That's unusual for the top of the first round.
  • Only about ~15 guys in this class are going to have first round grades from most NFL teams. The rest of the players taken in the first round would be second-rounders in most years
• After the first round this is much more of a 'normal' draft. The guys who will be available in the third or fourth round round aren't seen as particularly weak or strong for the third or fourth round

Putting that all together...

Teams may or may not offer a lot to move down from, say, #4 to #10. But teams might offer a lot more to move down from #4 to #20. Would that be worth it? Depends on how confident your assessment of who's available at #20, and what they're putting on the table.

An extra first round pick in a future draft may be more valuable than a pick in the 20s this year, for example...

While I generally agree this is a weak class relative to last season I do think both Sanders and Cam Ward would have gone before Penix and probably McCarthy and Bo Nix last year. They will both be top 5 picks and would have certainly been top 15 last year. The WR/OL that go in the 1st this draft would have been well behind their 2024 counterparts though.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

Yeah, to the extent there is a position group where the 1st round talent is deep in this coming draft it appears to be in DT/DE

 

[NextBigThing8184]

FWIW, we all can (and many do) read the same people online evaluating this draft class. And since we're now ~80% of the way through the college football season you can see people's opinions starting to come together, since the game footage they have right now is most of what it's going to be.

To pull together some comments that I've heard directly or indirectly from a bunch of professional and amateur scouts...

• This year the top of the first round is weak compared to most years, and last year. More specifically,
  • If you combined this year and last year's draft classes, the only player from this year's class who would get drafted top 10 is Travis Hunter
    • The rest of the guys who go top 10 this year all have something about them that raises questions for a bunch of teams. (E.g. Mason Graham has short arms that may make it hard for him to shed good NFL linemen; a bunch of teams see Will Campbell and Kelvin Banks as guards in the pros; etc.)
    • Partly because of this NFL teams are going to have wildly different rankings of the players taken 2-15ish. One team's second-best guy is going to be a different team's 12th-best guy. That's unusual for the top of the first round.
  • Only about ~15 guys in this class are going to have first round grades from most NFL teams. The rest of the players taken in the first round would be second-rounders in most years
• After the first round this is much more of a 'normal' draft. The guys who will be available in the third or fourth round round aren't seen as particularly weak or strong for the third or fourth round

Putting that all together...

Teams may or may not offer a lot to move down from, say, #4 to #10. But teams might offer a lot more to move down from #4 to #20. Would that be worth it? Depends on how confident your assessment of who's available at #20, and what they're putting on the table.

An extra first round pick in a future draft may be more valuable than a pick in the 20s this year, for example...

I think McMillan, Johnson and Hunter, and probably Sanders go top 10 in a “combined classes” draft. Depends on the team needs of course but I think Sanders goes before McCarthy and probably Penix. I could see an argument for Ward as well. Johnson, Hunter and McMillan are all arguably better or equivalent to Odunze and Latham.

I do think last year’s top 5 would all be top 5 (or top 3) in just about any draft. Last year was unusually stacked. Nabers, Odunze and this year’s top non-QB are all pretty similar, just a matter of positional need and preference.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

This isn't really your question but I've heard some scouts say that pre-surgery he was playing well enough to be in the discussion for the best OT in the draft. Post-surgery is probably going to come down to what he shows in workouts and what the team doctors say about his medical file.

I think Simmons would have potentially been viewed as the “safest” OT pick had he not gotten injured. Should be no questions about his measurables or toughness. He’s very young with a ton of upside

this year’s tackle class is a little like last year’s DT class. On paper, heading into summer, it looked like it could be really good. But then it just totally fell apart as the season wore on

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think McMillan, Johnson and Hunter, and probably Sanders go top 10 in a “combined classes” draft. Depends on the team needs of course but I think Sanders goes before McCarthy and probably Penix. I could see an argument for Ward as well. Johnson, Hunter and McMillan are all arguably better or equivalent to Odunze and Latham.

I do think last year’s top 5 would all be top 5 (or top 3) in just about any draft. Last year was unusually stacked. Nabers, Odunze and this year’s top non-QB are all pretty similar, just a matter of positional need and preference.

I've seen plenty of people talk about this class and consensus is McMillan is much closer to BTJ than the top 3 WRs. the QBs... somewhere in the Penix/Nix range.

 

[j44thor]

I've seen plenty of people talk about this class and consensus is McMillan is much closer to BTJ than the top 3 WRs. the QBs... somewhere in the Penix/Nix range.

My comp for McMillan is Drake London, both broke out at young age, both have size and decent speed but Tet isn't going to test like BTJ did. I think this class overall comps pretty well to the 2022 class but the QBs are better. The WR class is quite similar though, Tet - London, Burden - Garret Wilson (Wilson is better but similar) Egbuka - Olave, Jameson Williams - Isiah Bond.
Don't think there is an Aiden Hutchinson in this draft but the top drafted DL will be another MI product in Graham and the CBs are a relative strength in Hunter and Johnson just like Sauce and Stingley in 2022. OL was a mixed bag in 2022 and have generally disappointed.

 

[Norm loves Vera]

I tend to blow off most tweets by NESN, because they never break any news and any info the offer has already appeared on SoSH boards. I did find this article interesting in that it discusses under the radar draftees who are playing this weekend and why they are worth watching. It's a free article by Keagan Stiefel:


OL Clay Webb (#74), Jacksonville State
Conference USA Championship: vs. Western Kentucky
TV: CBS Sports Network
(Friday, 7 p.m. ET)

Yes, we’re diving deeeeeeeep into these conference championship games, giving you one propsect to watch in each of the nine matchups slated for Friday and Saturday.

Webb won’t grab the headlines when it comes to options on this list, but he’s a versatile offensive lineman with a great pedigree. Jacksonville State landed him following a couple of seasons at Georgia, where he originally arrived as a five-star recruit. It’s also Jax State and Western Kentucky, so this is about as good as it gets.

WR Ricky White III (#11), UNLV
Mountain West Championship: vs. Boise State
TV: FOX
(Friday, 8 p.m. ET)

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will grab all the headlines in this matchup, but there’s zero chance he’ll wind up in New England. White, on the other hand, is the exact kind of prospect the organization could be interested in — and you can learn more about him here.

DT Patrick Jenkins (#0), Tulane
American Athletic Championship: vs. Army
TV: ABC
(Friday, 8 p.m. ET)

Army literally doesn’t allow dudes even to be considered for the draft, so that limits options.

Jenkins is about as good as it gets for Tulane, serving as a decent disruptor along the interior. The Green Wave changed things up defensively under new head coach Jon Sumrall, which hurt the senior’s ability to get after the passer, but a decent showing in his final two collegiate games could catapult him into contention for a priority free agent contract.

RB Cam Skattebo (#4), Arizona State
Big 12 Championship: vs. Iowa State
TV: ABC
(Saturday, noon ET)

The Patriots don’t necessarily need to target backfield options in this draft, but the class is so deep it would make sense to start planning for the future in those middle rounds.

Skattebo would be a tremendous option, as his contact balance and ability to eat up yards after contact are the exact traits you’d look for out of a potential option to fill in behind Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. It’s a luxury they probably can’t afford, but this is a guy you’ll want to keep an eye on anyway.

EDGE Brian Ugwu (#8), Miami (Ohio)
MAC Championship: vs. Ohio
TV: ESPN
(Saturday, noon ET)

Ugwu was the only option here.

OT Cameron Williams (#56), Texas
SEC Championship: vs. Georgia
TV: ABC
(Saturday, 4 p.m. ET)

Kelvin Banks Jr. is probably the name you anticipated reading when you arrived at this entry, but there are a couple of reasons why we elected to pass him over.

Banks suffered an injury last week and likely isn’t at full strength entering a matchup against one of the most feared defenses in college football. It’s also debatable whether or not he’s the best offensive tackle on his own team because everything we’ve seen this season would suggest otherwise.

Williams is not only much larger (6-foot-5, 335 pounds) than his teammate but he’s displayed much better technique and fluidity throughout this season — with an earlier matchup against Georgia serving as one of the few blemishes on his resume. The Longhorns will have an opportunity to get their lick back on Saturday, meaning the gigantic junior will. as well.

It’s aggressive to call Williams a better prospect than Banks, but he might be a better fit to play tackle at the next level. New England has also displayed a willingness to take a collegiate right tackle and try to flip him to the other side — so maybe it could happen again.

EDGE Mike Green (#15), Marshall
Sun Belt Championship: vs. Louisiana
TV: ESPN
(Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Green is awesome.

The Patriots’ needs are so plentiful that you almost can’t find a position in which they won’t have some level of interest, including on the edge. Green is the exact kind of player they could target, as he’s viewed as a mid-round option who can immediately come in and provide a boost rushing the passer (18.7% pressure rate) while developing on early downs behind a guy like Anfernee Jennings.
Louisiana doesn’t necessarily sling it, so he won’t be able to pin his ears back Saturday. It’s a decent test to see how effective he can be in other areas, though.

OT Josh Conerly Jr. (#76), Oregon
Big Ten Championship: vs. Penn State
TV: CBS
(Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

It’s time to get serious.
The Patriots need to make upgrades across the offensive line, which means they very well could make multiple additions in April. Conerly is an option in the second or third round, which is probably the sweet spot when it comes to this class of tackles, as none of them truly deserve to be considered in the first.

OT Blake Miller (#78), Clemson
ACC Championship: vs. SMU
TV: ABC
(Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

Miller is a similar example to Conerly, as he’s a mid-to-late-round option who could slide in and play multiple roles early in his career.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

Interesting article-- thanks for sharing

For all the knocks on this draft class it appears that the top couple of rounds are going to be particularly deep at DT, DE/Edge, and OG.

As it happens, those are all positions where we could really use some more talent. I know we're all screaming for better targets for Maye, but this might the draft to beef up the offensive and defensive lines

Edit: and RB. Lots of scouts are saying this is a very deep RB class. Might be great value to use a second-or-third day pick there.

 

[mcpickl]

I really like WR Jayden Higgins at Iowa State. Excited to watch him in today’s Big 12 Championship game.

He’s not ranked very highly, apparently because he doesn’t have top end speed, but his size, route running and quickness for his size should make him a great Red zone target.

 

[chilidawg]

Any thoughts on Warren, the TE from Penn State? Big guy 6'6 260 with great positional flexibility. PS used him in the backfield, in line, in the slot and out wide yesterday. I was impressed.

Not really a position of need but if he was available early 2nd I'd take him. Most mocks seem to have him late first.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Some big 1:00 games today for the Pats's draft position. Have the 2-win NYG hosting the 4-win Saints, the 3-win Browns in Pittsburgh, the 2-win Raiders at Tampa Bay, the 3-win Jets at Miami, 3-win Carolina in Philly, and the granddaddy of them all: 2-win JAX at 3-win Tenn. Hoping for a couple of upsets in some of those games, and for JAX and the NYG to win their games against very weak opponents.

 

[DJnVa]

Jags win boosts Pats up a spot to #3 behind two QB needy teams.

 

[NomarsFool]

JAX got their job done. Pats now sitting at #3.

Some other chances at upsets, but it's almost like these lousy teams don't want to win

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

This Pittsburgh game would be much more interesting if Dustin Hopkins wasn't kicking like Nicky Hopkins.

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

The Lord hates Jameis.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Giants getting a chance for the win!

 

[DJnVa]

JAX got their job done. Pats now sitting at #3

Travis Hunter has entered the chat.

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

Giants getting a chance for the win!

Every now and then, I know it's kinda hard to tell, but they're STILL ALIVE AND WELL!

 

[DJnVa]

And dead.

They’re going QB anyway.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Travis Hunter has entered the chat.

That would be unfortunate by far their best outcome is being able to trade down with a team that needs a QB

 

[Saints Rest]

That would be unfortunate by far their best outcome is being able to trade down with a team that needs a QB

But with LV and NYG holding picks 1&2, and both being in desperate need of a QB, it seems like the opportunities to trade down may be limited, unless someone is in love with Hunter or Graham.

If the current order holds, I think it is safe to assume the Pats will be pick 3rd again. Maybe they will have as much success with back-to-back #3 picks as the Celtics did!

 

[Ferm Sheller]

The Pats are going to drop due to strength of schedule. They play Buffalo twice and the Chargers. I think they’ll pick about 5th or 6th unless they get a lot of help. Too many 2- and 3-win teams.

 

[Cellar-Door]

The Pats are going to drop due to strength of schedule. They play Buffalo twice and the Chargers. I think they’ll pick about 5th or 6th unless they get a lot of help. Too many 2- and 3-win teams.

Those games are built-in in. The big SOS changes come when a bad team you already played upsets a team, or a good team falls off.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Those games are built-in in. The big SOS changes come when a bad team you already played upsets a team, or a good team falls off.

Oh, is that true? I’m glad that’s the case. Thank you.

 

[NomarsFool]

It’s been posted here that the SOS includes future opponents. Whether that is true or not, I don’t know.

The Giants had a great chance today, but just really botched it at the end.

I’d really like to see the Pats get to 1 or 2 and trade back to the 3rd pick or so with one of the teams that needs a QB. Would a 2nd rounder be appropriate compensation for that? The Pats just have so many holes, they need a killer draft to turn things around.

 

[Cellar-Door]

It’s been posted here that the SOS includes future opponents. Whether that is true or not, I don’t know.

The Giants had a great chance today, but just really botched it at the end.

I’d really like to see the Pats get to 1 or 2 and trade back to the 3rd pick or so with one of the teams that needs a QB. Would a 2nd rounder be appropriate compensation for that? The Pats just have so many holes, they need a killer draft to turn things around.

If you're using Tankathon it is. They use all 17 games at the opponent's current winning percentage.
This is pretty useful for heads up.... https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/tiebreaker_rooting
A quick look, and as you'd expect, every loss by an AFC East team is big, but also big for multiple matchups is DEN beating IND.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

Travis Hunter has entered the chat.

This feels like the most likely outcome right now, for sure

 

[snowmanny]

Wouldn't shock me if someone really wants to trade up for Hunter

 

[NomarsFool]

Corners play pretty much every defensive snap, right? I could see maybe working in Hunter sporadically on offense, I guess.

A big question mark for me is what they can find in FA. If they can grab a great WR or two in FA, or a great LT - that changes what I’d like to see them do in the draft. I’m just a little worried the top OT in the draft isn’t really a guaranteed starter at LT, and we’ve wasted a top 3 pick on a guard.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Wouldn't shock me if someone really wants to trade up for Hunter

definitely possible, probably get more for a QB obviously.

To me the thing about Hunter is..... I don't think he'd be the consensus #1 non-QB without the 2 way stuff in college, and I don't think he'll do that meaningfully in the pros.
I also think there is some reason to think he'll want to be a WR who plays some corner.... and I think as a WR he's not as good a prospect.

To put it in perspective. I think he's CB #1 in this draft, and I think he would have been CB #1 over Mitchell last year. At WR... I think he's in the #1 conversation but maybe behind Tet... which puts him 4th or 5th last year. I think if he were in last year's draft he probably doesn't go top 10.

 

[DJnVa]

That would be unfortunate by far their best outcome is being able to trade down with a team that needs a QB

I don't think it would be unfortunate, but if want a potential trade down, either another QB needs to pop or the Pats need to move to #2 and hope more than one team wnats to move up.

At WR... I think he's in the #1 conversation but maybe behind Tet... which puts him 4th or 5th last year. I think if he were in last year's draft he probably doesn't go top 10.

FWIW, on his latest podcast Lazar said he'd be happy with Hunter--says he's a 98 level CB and a 90 level WR, but he'd play him at WR. He said Tet is Drake London, and that's not worth picking early (i.e. #2-4), if the Pats like him, he'd prefer a trade down. Seems to think Hunter is the top player by a mile, in the draft.

We'll have lots of time on that though.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

I also think there is some reason to think he'll want to be a WR who plays some corner.... and I think as a WR he's not as good a prospect.

This is the kind of behind-the-scenes due diligence that you'd absolutely have to do with Hunter. His draft value drops if he wants to be a WR who plays defense in dime packages and/or he's a prima donna who's going try to dictate things to the coaching staff

I’m just a little worried the top OT in the draft isn’t really a guaranteed starter at LT, and we’ve wasted a top 3 pick on a guard.

My read of all the scouting reports is that if you're going to draft Will Campbell or Kelvin Banks you should be happy with the prospect of playing them at guard. Which is not to say they won't surprise and turn into good NFL tackles. But it would be mistake to count on it.

Which is all another way to say: in this draft there are no clear-cut OTs that everyone is giving first round grades to. All the guys with the tools/frame to play tackle (Cameron Williams, Ersery, Simmons, Conerly) are considered second-round talent in a "normal" draft by a large number of NFL teams.

 

[Saints Rest]

Is there a downside to simply taking BPA at 3 and grabbing a stud for the DL, be that Graham or Carter?

 

[Cellar-Door]

This is the kind of behind-the-scenes due diligence that you'd absolutely have to do with Hunter. His draft value drops if he wants to be a WR who plays defense in dime packages and/or he's a prima donna who's going try to dictate things to the coaching staff

From what you hear he isn't a primadonna (especially by WR/CB standards)... but he probably should want to play WR... you have to a lot less good at WR to make more money. He could be the #30 WR and he probably makes more money than being a top 4 CB.

 

[DJnVa]

My read of all the scouting reports is that if you're going to draft Will Campbell or Kelvin Banks you should be happy with the prospect of playing them at guard. Which is not to say they won't surprise and turn into good NFL tackles. But it would be mistake to count on it.

Which is all another way to say: in this draft there are no clear-cut OTs that everyone is giving first round grades to. All the guys with the tools/frame to play tackle (Cameron Williams, Ersery, Simmons, Conerly) are considered second-round talent in a "normal" draft by a large number of NFL teams.

Campbell is downgraded for 1 reason--arm length. The draftniks to be a great OT arms need to be 33" and his might not be.

One podcast I was listening to said that they don't necessarily buy that--that they used to say they needed to be 34" until some OT whose name I can't remember dominated with arms shorter than that.

 

[Saints Rest]

If you're using Tankathon it is. They use all 17 games at the opponent's current winning percentage.
This is pretty useful for heads up.... https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/tiebreaker_rooting
A quick look, and as you'd expect, every loss by an AFC East team is big, but also big for multiple matchups is DEN beating IND.

This is an interesting and useful way to steer your rooting interests in non-Pats games over these last 4 weeks.
https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/tiebreaker_rooting

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

Campbell is downgraded for 1 reason--arm length. The draftniks to be a great OT arms need to be 33" and his might not be.

One podcast I was listening to said that they don't necessarily buy that--that they used to say they needed to be 34" until some OT whose name I can't remember dominated with arms shorter than that.

Yeah, that's my sense of things

And-- full transparency: this is a risk-averse approach-- that's why I say 'be prepared for him to end up a guard'. Which is kinda a different way of saying: if you're going to bet that conventional wisdom is wrong, be prepared for you to be wrong and conventional wisdom to be right.

I'm not sure Campbell is who I'd take #3, but in general I'm not adverse to the Pats taking him top 10, because we very likely going to need both two tackles and at least one guard this offseason. So, whichever he ends up being, we got snaps for him.

you have to a lot less good at WR to make more money. He could be the #30 WR and he probably makes more money than being a top 4 CB.

No doubt.

So, if you're the team drafting him you gotta be clear about what you want him for, and clear about that with him and his agent, and confident enough from those conversations that you're not walking into an avoidable melodrama

 

[Cellar-Door]

Is there a downside to simply taking BPA at 3 and grabbing a stud for the DL, be that Graham or Carter?

Not particularly, though BPA at #3 is maybe a CB. Now, some would argue you're better off not going DL top 5 because it's a really deep class.

My top preference is probably trading down and taking either OL/WR/BPA.

Campbell is downgraded for 1 reason--arm length. The draftniks to be a great OT arms need to be 33" and his might not be.

One podcast I was listening to said that they don't necessarily buy that--that they used to say they needed to be 34" until some OT whose name I can't remember dominated with arms shorter than that.

Would't say that's the only knock on him. Even with longer arms he'd be a lesser prospect than the top guys last year. One thing I have seen is guys like Thorn who say the arms and overall lack of length show up on tape. Thorn has him as his #1 OL, but thinks that's as a guard, doesn't see the skillset and body translating as well to LT. (Simmons is his OT1, but can't imagine he goes early 1st given his injury timeline).
Joe Staley is likely the guy the podcast was talking about, he was sub 34.
I could see drafting him anyway, Thorn thinks he's an elite guard, and that might be enough in this draft, and depending how short the arms are you could start him at T and see. I'd feel a lot better about him at 8-12 than #3 though.

 

[NomarsFool]

I guess I just feel burned by the Cole Strange experience. He was supposed to be an elite guard, and obviously the injury issue, but even had he be healthy he seemed like a reach in the first round at 20 or whatever he was.

Onwenu is supposed to be a really good guard, right? He just didn’t seem to put it together this season at RT. The OL is always a bit hard to evaluate because I do think there is a lot synergy when you have good, consistent players that can work together as a unit. One good OL isn’t worth much, and I think a good OL doesn’t look good if he’s playing with players that aren’t.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I guess I just feel burned by the Cole Strange experience. He was supposed to be an elite guard, and obviously the injury issue, but even had he be healthy he seemed like a reach in the first round at 20 or whatever he was.

Onwenu is supposed to be a really good guard, right? He just didn’t seem to put it together this season at RT. The OL is always a bit hard to evaluate because I do think there is a lot synergy when you have good, consistent players that can work together as a unit. One good OL isn’t worth much, and I think a good OL doesn’t look good if he’s playing with players that aren’t.

Strange was not supposed to be an elite guard, he was a consensus reach who was a raw athlete. A better example is Skoronski... but he also hasn't been amazing.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I think if Will Johnson’s foot was healthy, Hunter wouldn’t be the consensus #1 CB. Johnson plays stronger and with better technique. Hunter is a great CB prospect but needs to focus on it full time to refine his skills. Right now, he relies heavily on athleticism (same as at WR). Works fine in college but against the bigger, faster, stronger WR’s in the NFL, you need to have the technique.

I don’t love him as a WR for the same reasons. Great athlete but not a special receiver. If he were just a WR, with no 2-way stuff, I don’t think he’d be a top 5 pick in most draft classes (this class sucks so he might still be a top 5 this year)

I don’t trust the Pats to have a good plan on how to get the most out of him. It will be interesting to see how his 2 way ability is handled through the draft process. Is there a team that really thinks he’s going to be a full time player at both (seems crazy). Is he going to be a WR where he’s less special but the money is better? A CB who plays a little offense like Deion did a little bit in his career? That seems the most likely. But if I’m drafting a CB, a healthy Johnson (assuming no lingering or unlikely future recurrence of the foot issue) is my pick.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Campbell is downgraded for 1 reason--arm length. The draftniks to be a great OT arms need to be 33" and his might not be.

One podcast I was listening to said that they don't necessarily buy that--that they used to say they needed to be 34" until some OT whose name I can't remember dominated with arms shorter than that.

Campbell isn’t being bumped down because of the arm length. He’s had an inconsistent year and I think there’s very real questions about some of his technique and his overall toughness.

I wouldn’t say he’s “soft” per se but he lacks that obvious mean streak or grit or whatever you want to call it that makes a lot of tackles special.

I want a tackle that wants to destroy the defensive guy coming at him. Some fairly mediocre college DE’s have been able to beat him with strength which shouldn’t happen for such a highly regarded prospect

still worth a top 15 pick due to positional value but he’s not the top 5, elite LT prospect some had him as back in the spring. He’s several steps below the top tackles from last year.