I'm just of the opinion that 1 top end talent isn't going to make a lot of difference (now that they have a QB). I'd take two of the 2nd or 3rd best Ts/WRs over the one best T or WR for sure.
2025 Draft: Patriots Discussion
- Thread starter Mugsy's Jock
- Start date
Pulling these over to the draft thread from elsewhere
Like @cshea and @j44thor pointed out, this isn't a draft in which there is a clear, no-brainer, top-ten pick OT. And after McMillan I'm not sure there's a no-brainer, top WR that complements who we got. We need a deep threat and/or a tall X. Others who are smarter than me should correct if this is wrong, but after McMillan the next guy with the profile we're looking for might be Elic Ayomanor, who's projected to go late 2nd/early 3rd.
At the same time, as j44thor said, this draft is deep in Edge/DL. And it and has a bunch of guys who project out to be strong starting offensive linemen but for various reasons aren't currently projected to until late in the first / early in the second round.
So, I've been warming to a twist on @streeter88's idea, which is we trade down for another pick high in the second round and use both, rather then burning one to move higher. If this nets us three starters at positions of need, we'll have taken a real step forward.
Take this as for illustrative purposes, but based on the latest consensus mock drafts (which will change in the coming months), such a deal could get us:
- round 1/14 - Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia - perhaps the most +athletic freak in the draft; gives us someone with clear All Pro potential at the other end of the line from White and next to Barmore
- round 2/39 - Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State - was looking like a strong starting NFL-quality LT and potentially one of the first tackles taken in the draft before he got injured earlier this year. While everyone says he should come back from the injury fine, the fact that he's been out, the inherent risks that injuries have long-term consequences, and a certain 'out of sight, out of mind' has pushed him down into the second round
- round 2/41 - Wyatt Milum, iOL, West Virginia - everyone who watches him play loves the guy, he can play all over the line, is a gym-rat/workaholic/team player, and when people thought he might be a tackle in the NFL he was getting first-round grades. Later, once people realized he had shorter arms tpeople think he's more likely a guard/center. And that positional shift has people talking about his ceiling as somewhere in the second round, or maybe the very end of the first.
Twist away @Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache. It's too early for me to pay much attention to the 2025 draft, but I remember reading that it wasn't viewed to be deep in our primary areas of need ("primary" doing a lot of work here, because the team could really use an upgrade at... well... almost every position group save for QB, TE and the kicker).
Your idea of maximising our haul of pretty good prospects instead of putting all our eggs in fewer high pick baskets is excellent. The only question I would have with your choices is that they don't contain an upgrade at WR, which you justified well, and I don't have any better information or opinion.
But... I do think that the remaining 2 college games plus the bowl season, plus the Draft Industrial Complex will unearth and polish up some WR candidates that no doubt people like me will go gaga over in February and March when we start to think about the draft. Heck, I wanted us to get Ladd McConkey or Xavier Worthy, based on precisely zero information. Turns out either of those would have been a pretty good pick, but that is pure luck.
I agree with basically everything here but you never know how a CFB playoff run and national title or ridiculous combine could vault someone up the board (or conversely, a disaster from Sanders/Ward could have them slide to round 2)
a guy like Milroe could explode up the board to the top 5, Ward could implode and fall. With these highly raw, athletic QB’s it’s hard to tell sometimes.
I don’t know that there’s too many players who have hurt their stock more than Beck but I still think he could end up a late 1st if he carried Georgia to a title while putting up MVP type numbers. Unlikely but the expanded playoffs I think will give a little more opportunity for guys to get that ever desirable “winner” label attached to them.
Allar, Nussmeier, Dart and Ewers have such wide ranges, it’s hard to tell at this point. I don’t really like any of them (and Im not sold on Sanders or Ward being top 5 worthy at all)
well I think the problem is, if the Pats are at 6, and the top 2 QB’s are off the board, who is going to want to trade up, and for what purpose? I guess someone could trade up for a Hunter or Johnson if they slip or gets really excited about Graham, Burden, Scourton, Carter or someone else but I think in that case, you’re better off sticking and picking the T or WR.
Based on what I’ve read and some very limited watching, these are the guys I’d be ok with the Pats taking with their first pick, wherever it is
OL-Will Campbell, Kelvin Banks
WR-McMillan, Burden
Edge - Abdul Carter,
DT-Mason Graham
CB/DB-Travis Hunter, Will Johnson
So if you figure someone wants to trade up for Sanders and Cam Ward, and maybe Ashton Jeanty (hello, Jerrrah), Pats can hopefully drop down to 8 or 9 and have their choice of an impact player plus pick up an extra pick or two. I dont think anything like the Bryce Young haul is possible, but an extra 2nd this year and 3rd next year would be nice.
Best thing for the Pats would be for Carson Beck to keep lighting it up like he did last week and lead GA to a Natty, and he becomes a top 10 guy too.
OL-Will Campbell, Kelvin Banks
WR-McMillan, Burden
Edge - Abdul Carter,
DT-Mason Graham
CB/DB-Travis Hunter, Will Johnson
So if you figure someone wants to trade up for Sanders and Cam Ward, and maybe Ashton Jeanty (hello, Jerrrah), Pats can hopefully drop down to 8 or 9 and have their choice of an impact player plus pick up an extra pick or two. I dont think anything like the Bryce Young haul is possible, but an extra 2nd this year and 3rd next year would be nice.
Best thing for the Pats would be for Carson Beck to keep lighting it up like he did last week and lead GA to a Natty, and he becomes a top 10 guy too.
The three two win teams this weekend (Jags on a bye
Giants - 6.5 pt dog vs Bucs, Danny Dimes leading the way
Titans - 8 point dog vs Texans, Levis running the show
Raiders - 6 point dog vs Broncos, Minshew at the helm
Could use a win somewhere here, but feels like three losses
Giants - 6.5 pt dog vs Bucs, Danny Dimes leading the way
Titans - 8 point dog vs Texans, Levis running the show
Raiders - 6 point dog vs Broncos, Minshew at the helm
Could use a win somewhere here, but feels like three losses
I don't see how Beck can become a top 10 pick, first round is possible but I think he drops below Allar assuming he comes out. I think Milroe can still jump into the top 8 if he finishes strong, a more accurate less athletic Anthony Richardson will be very appealing to certain teams.
Burden isn't in the same tier as Tet for me based on the limited info that is out there so far. Burden is closer to Bond/Harris in the back half of the 1st rd.
Rest of those picks make a lot of sense though.
Danny Dimes was cut yesterday, it is the Tommy Devito show in NY.
I think the Raiders have the best shot at the upset.
The Cleveland win was huge. I thought they had real potential to lose out. Never saw them beating the Steelers.
Tennessee pulling it out today.
Jacksonville has a powder puff schedule the rest of the season. It will be very difficult for them to lose out. They also play LV. So, one of them has to win that game.
NY Giants are now are our #1 competition for the top pick, i think.
Jacksonville has a powder puff schedule the rest of the season. It will be very difficult for them to lose out. They also play LV. So, one of them has to win that game.
NY Giants are now are our #1 competition for the top pick, i think.
I think Jags win at most 1 more game, and their SOS ends up worse than us.
I'd say Patriots likely to end top 5 but not 1, Jags/Giants the frontrunners for #1.
This is a good news/bad news draft.
Good News.... top tier of prospects is probably at least 6 or 7 deep
Bad News... that's because there are basically no guys who would be in the normal #1 tier
Good News.... the Patriots will likely be in position to pick the #1 or #2 player at either of their top need positions
Bad News... none of those guys would have been top 3 at their position last year.
Good News.... Patriots do not need a QB and a lot of teams do.
Bad news... it's a bad QB class so unless they get #1 they might not be able to get a good deal to trade down.
Burden’s stock has dropped a bit this year. He and Will Campbell seemed like sure top 7-10 picks coming into the season and now they both may drop out of the top 10
I think T-Mac would be a hell of a get for a primary WR target for Maye. Sure the Pats need to shore up the line but McMillan could be our version of Drake London.
We're likely drafting 4-6, and as much as there is need to trade back, I don't trust this front office with extra 2nd rounders. It's likely the top 3 will go Hunter (to JAX), Ward and Sanders (NYG and LVR), so realistically we're looking at OT1-2, WR2, EDGE1-2 or DT1-2. We can use absolutely any of them, so now it's who can you get in free agency that obviates the need:
OT FAs: Stanley and Bolles. The dropoff is substantial after that. Stanley is absolutely obtainable, as BAL is pretty capped out. Bolles less so, as DEN has Nix on the cheap, and some cap room to sign him.
WR FAs: Higgins, Godwin, Diggs. Higgins is obviously the best get. CIN is likely to franchise him for ~$25M, and they have the cap space to do it. The others should all be available, but coming off injuries that will limit ability to perform in 2025.
EDGE FAs: Mack, Reddick, Young and Sweat are all worth going after, and all likely obtainable. As bad as the D's pressure has been this year (and other than the Bears game, it's atrocious), I wouldn't draft here until round 3.
DT FAs: Tons of good talent here: Milton Williams, Onwuzurike, Campbell, even Poona Ford has really shown up. No need to draft - beef is on the menu.
So I think it comes down to whether the Pats can land Stanley in free agency, in which case they go WR (McMillan), or Higgins, in which case they go OT (Campbell or Banks). If somehow they got both, I'd absolutely draft OT and then go defensive BPA the rest of the way, having spent the money and top pick on offense.
OT FAs: Stanley and Bolles. The dropoff is substantial after that. Stanley is absolutely obtainable, as BAL is pretty capped out. Bolles less so, as DEN has Nix on the cheap, and some cap room to sign him.
WR FAs: Higgins, Godwin, Diggs. Higgins is obviously the best get. CIN is likely to franchise him for ~$25M, and they have the cap space to do it. The others should all be available, but coming off injuries that will limit ability to perform in 2025.
EDGE FAs: Mack, Reddick, Young and Sweat are all worth going after, and all likely obtainable. As bad as the D's pressure has been this year (and other than the Bears game, it's atrocious), I wouldn't draft here until round 3.
DT FAs: Tons of good talent here: Milton Williams, Onwuzurike, Campbell, even Poona Ford has really shown up. No need to draft - beef is on the menu.
So I think it comes down to whether the Pats can land Stanley in free agency, in which case they go WR (McMillan), or Higgins, in which case they go OT (Campbell or Banks). If somehow they got both, I'd absolutely draft OT and then go defensive BPA the rest of the way, having spent the money and top pick on offense.
Everything I’ve read about Campbell (both here and elsewhere) suggests he’s not “safe” the way top tackles tend to be. We all know the talent level of this team is bad, and they have to nail that first pick. I realize I might be alone on this island, but I’d like to see them draft Will Johnson. While not the most glaring need, CB is absolutely a need. And Johnson just seems like more of a sure thing than the tackles or WRs that are being discussed.
I'd add Cam Robinson to the OT list and Amari Cooper to WR. Lawrence and Ojulari at Edge.
I
Everything depends on whether or not Lawrence comes back. They have a lot of winnable games.
I would be a bit surprised if they end up with a worse SOS. Tankathan's SOS already calculates over all 17 opponents and the current gap between the two teams' non-common opponents is effectively about 5 wins. So the Patriots non common opponents would have to win at least 5 more games than the Jaguars non common opponents over the last five weeks, which obviously could happen but I don't see a reason to expect it to happen.
It seems like now or never for the Giants to win some games, with Dallas on a short week and then NO plus a lot of dissension in the locker room with the team's effort yesterday. They'll either rally and win one of these two or just crater I think.
You are not alone on said island. I would take either Hunter (primarily as a DB) or Will Johnson if available. A lock down defensive backfield makes the pass rush better, the run D better, etc.
Robinson's definitely better than any of our OTs, but still somewhat middling, hence I'd left him off the OT list. I'd surely take him as an upgrade though, so fair to add.
Cooper and Hopkins are total enigmas. They had bad years surrounded by bad talent, but after moving to contenders, it's not like either has made a gigantic leap. Both are steady performers with terrific QBs and lines.
I left off lots of EDGE and DTs, as there are plenty worth the money. And I also discounted CB/LB talent with the first rounder given much greater needs elsewhere.
Cooper and Hopkins are total enigmas. They had bad years surrounded by bad talent, but after moving to contenders, it's not like either has made a gigantic leap. Both are steady performers with terrific QBs and lines.
I left off lots of EDGE and DTs, as there are plenty worth the money. And I also discounted CB/LB talent with the first rounder given much greater needs elsewhere.
Aidan O'Connell should be back this week, Minshew was benched for him until he got hurt so don't think the QB change has much impact. They do play JAX still so someone has to win that game.
One way to look at it:
There are eight teams with only 2 or 3 wins. Here is how their schedules play out the rest of the way. For instance, NEP play the Colts next who have 5 wins, so I added a 1 to the 5 Win Opponent column:
Takeaways:
-I highlighted in yellow the bad teams playing each other. This is good, will increase win totals and knock at least 2 of these teams back, likely three. Jacksonville can't help but win some of these games against opponents on this list. Reminder, Raiders and Jags play each other Xmas week.
-I highlighted Pats in green. They have arguably the toughest close of season of any of these teams. They are going to struggle to find another win.
-Giants likely lose out. Shedeur is as good as theirs
-Carolina has a decent chance to lose out
-Cleveland is a hard read. I think they have a couple more wins in them, playing with heart right now
There are eight teams with only 2 or 3 wins. Here is how their schedules play out the rest of the way. For instance, NEP play the Colts next who have 5 wins, so I added a 1 to the 5 Win Opponent column:
Takeaways:
-I highlighted in yellow the bad teams playing each other. This is good, will increase win totals and knock at least 2 of these teams back, likely three. Jacksonville can't help but win some of these games against opponents on this list. Reminder, Raiders and Jags play each other Xmas week.
-I highlighted Pats in green. They have arguably the toughest close of season of any of these teams. They are going to struggle to find another win.
-Giants likely lose out. Shedeur is as good as theirs
-Carolina has a decent chance to lose out
-Cleveland is a hard read. I think they have a couple more wins in them, playing with heart right now
If the Pats lose to Indy, they should most likely lose out - barring something fluky. Anyone can win on any given Sunday - for sure - but traveling to AZ, two games against Buffalo, Chargers - doesn't look good for them.
The way Dallas has been playing, the Giants could possible beat them. Too bad the Panthers couldn't hold on vs. KC. That would have been fun on many levels.
The way Dallas has been playing, the Giants could possible beat them. Too bad the Panthers couldn't hold on vs. KC. That would have been fun on many levels.
A tie would be the best possible outcome if you're rooting for the Pats to receive the highest possible draft position.
Definitely not? Gives the opportunity for both teams to not get to 3 wins, meaning even if NE lost out they would finish behind both. A win by either team puts that team behind NE.
That's right, they each have one fewer win than the Pats do now. If they each win one more game, then a tie would be good for the Pats (assuming the Pats don't also win a game).
If the Jags are picking 1st (and FWIW I think the Giants are most likely), I don’t see any way they don’t trade down to the Giants or Raiders
Taking Hunter 1st overall would be insane unless they literally don’t get a single trade offer.
Taking Hunter 1st overall would be insane unless they literally don’t get a single trade offer.
Will Johnson would be awesome if the Pats are drafting top 5. McMillan and Johnson are really the two best targets at that kind of slot. Too early for Banks (et al). Could be sold on Graham or maybe one of the edge guys (Carter?) too.
I know extremely little about Hunter, but his profile scares me a little because I fear people would overvalue the novelty of him being a two way player, which we don’t usually actually see in the NFL. If he’s such a great CB that taking him #1 as a corner alone, then great. Do we often see CBs go #1? I’d think the positional value wouldn’t be quite that high. Just really unfortunate that the Pats stand to have a very high pick in a draft that doesn’t seem that great in terms of really top end talent at the positions they need. At least they were lucky there were so many QB prospects last year. If Maye was in the draft this year he’d probably go #1.
Everything I've read, which isn't a ton at this point, leads me to Graham as they best player in this draft. Stout against the run and has some pass rush ability. Seems like he has the highest floor with a really high ceiling as well. Ideal world NE drafts top 2 and trades back a couple spots for extra 2 this or 1 next year and still gets Graham. Pair him next to Barmore and the D looks a lot better. Address WR/OL in FA with some additional day2/3 reinforcements.
Full offseason not just draft, but these are mostly draft guys so putting it here (they're good, but they sometimes are a bit off on details especially on depth stuff as national guys)
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiquPyECwKg&t=773s
Takeaways.....
They don't think Mayo gets fired, Kraft too invested, will get another shot, tough spot w/ a BB roster without BB (also hasn't been good, worse than they expected, also... nobody seems to be getting better outside maybe 2nd year progression, also Connor hates Mayo's press strategy, fells he is putting stress on the team for no reason in many cases)
(for the process threw out some names if they are wrong that they thought MAYBE they move on from Mayo for... Liam Cohen, Dan Lanning)
Coordinators... shouldn't fire anybody (except maybe if Daboll gets fired)
GM.. (they liked Maye, Polk, Baker at the time, didn't like OL picks, didn't like process) rough initial offseason (but note, as they have in other teams that 1st draft/offseason is often rough for 1st timers). Nail Drake maye you get time.
MAye and Onwenu only "key players" on offense
Defense has more talent. Key players on all 3 levels.
FA big needs.. OL, WR, EDGE then maybe CB.
Tee Higgins should be #1 target (think NE is his most likely landing spot).
Would target Bolles and a guard (Smith or Fries)
Floated Deebo for a mid-round or late round pick
For mock 3 round assumed Higgins signed:
1. Traded down with Titans (picked up a 2nd, traded away a 3rd)- took Will Campbell
2. Walter Nolen DL
2. Darien Porter CB
3. Pat Bryant- WR
Edit- did bring up on Mayo that the team looks unprepared, and went from 10 least penalized to 6th most.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiquPyECwKg&t=773s
Takeaways.....
They don't think Mayo gets fired, Kraft too invested, will get another shot, tough spot w/ a BB roster without BB (also hasn't been good, worse than they expected, also... nobody seems to be getting better outside maybe 2nd year progression, also Connor hates Mayo's press strategy, fells he is putting stress on the team for no reason in many cases)
(for the process threw out some names if they are wrong that they thought MAYBE they move on from Mayo for... Liam Cohen, Dan Lanning)
Coordinators... shouldn't fire anybody (except maybe if Daboll gets fired)
GM.. (they liked Maye, Polk, Baker at the time, didn't like OL picks, didn't like process) rough initial offseason (but note, as they have in other teams that 1st draft/offseason is often rough for 1st timers). Nail Drake maye you get time.
MAye and Onwenu only "key players" on offense
Defense has more talent. Key players on all 3 levels.
FA big needs.. OL, WR, EDGE then maybe CB.
Tee Higgins should be #1 target (think NE is his most likely landing spot).
Would target Bolles and a guard (Smith or Fries)
Floated Deebo for a mid-round or late round pick
For mock 3 round assumed Higgins signed:
1. Traded down with Titans (picked up a 2nd, traded away a 3rd)- took Will Campbell
2. Walter Nolen DL
2. Darien Porter CB
3. Pat Bryant- WR
Edit- did bring up on Mayo that the team looks unprepared, and went from 10 least penalized to 6th most.
Last edited:
The money quote, which you really tried to bury in your recap there, is Sikkema’s first conclusion, “if he were fired after one year, it would be completely unfair to Mayo. Especially because of the shit roster he inherited from Belichick.”
Which is a weird take albeit from guys who are better at talking draft than pros.
Mayo didn’t inherit a “shit roster” from Bill. He was given a shit roster from Wolf.
They had a similar level on talent on D last year and performed better. Mayo is supposed to be a defensive guy
On grounds of the lack of discipline, poor defensive results, lack of player improvement/development and general incompetence, Mayo should be fired
Getting bad results from a bad roster is something you can live with. Having an entire unit backslide and no meaningful player development/improvement is a serious concern for any coach.
What is the argument that Mayo has done a good job? There’s lots of excuses as to why his poor performance should be hand waved away. What’s the positive case for him?
Judon played 4 games last year
Barmore and Gonzalez are more or less a wash I’d say
They’ve had some lost time (Bentley, Peppers) but guys get hurt in the NFL. You can’t just wave away a massive decline in performance because of those types of losses.
Detroit lost arguably the best pass rusher in the league and still is putting up good performances on D week in and week out. We saw many Belichick D operate well without key pieces
I don’t see the talent gap between what was on the field last Sunday and a year ago as such a big difference to justify the backslide in performance. And if it is, then perhaps fingers should be pointed at Wolf for not finding a LB and S who can fill in for Bentley and Peppers (hardly the second coming of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed) without tanking the entire unit.
Of course, Hawkins and Takitaki were his depth acquisitions. Not really success stories thus far
That's funny, I thought the money quote from their section about the coaching situation was that the Patriots "wanted to have their cake and eat it, too".
They wanted to remove Belichick, but have Mayo be a younger, Belichick-esque (but more collaborative), version of 'the Patriots way'. And that this season has shown that vision to be a failure, since the Pats have not gotten Belichick-ian results with a Belichick-ian roster without Belichcick. Combined that with the dynamic that after Maye none of their '24 draft picks can get on the field + nobody on the roster has gotten significantly better this year... and they're pretty down on Mayo. In effect, their view seems to be that this season has already disproven Kraft's hypothesis for why/how grooming and promoting Mayo from within was supposed to work out.
That said, their argument for why Mayo wouldn't be fired is more or less 'Kraft won't be impatient'. That Mayo and Wolf will get one more off-season to assemble the kind of team they want and have that team show improvement.
They're haven't? I'd say they're pretty much having the same kinda season BB did last year.
'23 w/BB--average score: 21.5-13.9, picked #3
'24 w/out BB--average score: 23.5-16.4, picking #4 as of 11/30
You're not wrong.
But last season is not what Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers had in mind when they were describing "Belichick-ian" head coaching (that results in a team over-performing its talent)
And their point was that Kraft's hypothesis for why they should promote Mayo was he could give you want was good about Belichick (team over-performs talent, good things about "the Patriot's way") without the bad things (poor drafting and internal discord).
That hypothesis doesn't seem to be holding up well.
I think the Belichick thing was pretty straightforward. Trevor kind of touches on it a couple times. Basically BB was able to take guys who for one reason or another were not highly rated by others and combine them into much better defenses than expected.. This made the quality of the roster moves hard to evaluate. So far the same has not been trusted this year, and so a roster full of guys BB utilized to success is not seeing the same success under Mayo/Covington and the roster probably needs to be built more conventionally going forward.
Still sitting at #4.
JAX - last 5 games are against Tennessee 2X, Jets, Colts, Raiders. If Mac Jones is playing QB for them, maybe they can manage to lose all 5 games. Otherwise, you sort of think they'd HAVE to win one of those.
Las Vegas - last 5 games are against Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Chargers. Not as easy as schedule as JAX, but they have a decent chance of winning one, I think.
NY Giants - last 5 games are against Indy, Philly, Atlanta, Baltimore, New Orleans. Unfortunately, blowing it against Dallas was huge. They could very easily lose out at this point, but maybe they win one of Indy or NO.
Patriots - bye and then 4 games - Buffalo 2X, LAC, and Arizona away. Assuming Buffalo is playing for something the last week of the season - they've got a good chance to lose out.
Does anyone know if the SOS at the moment, just looks at games against opponents they've played, or does it count games they haven't played yet? Because the SOS for the rest of the season is brutal.
JAX - last 5 games are against Tennessee 2X, Jets, Colts, Raiders. If Mac Jones is playing QB for them, maybe they can manage to lose all 5 games. Otherwise, you sort of think they'd HAVE to win one of those.
Las Vegas - last 5 games are against Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Chargers. Not as easy as schedule as JAX, but they have a decent chance of winning one, I think.
NY Giants - last 5 games are against Indy, Philly, Atlanta, Baltimore, New Orleans. Unfortunately, blowing it against Dallas was huge. They could very easily lose out at this point, but maybe they win one of Indy or NO.
Patriots - bye and then 4 games - Buffalo 2X, LAC, and Arizona away. Assuming Buffalo is playing for something the last week of the season - they've got a good chance to lose out.
Does anyone know if the SOS at the moment, just looks at games against opponents they've played, or does it count games they haven't played yet? Because the SOS for the rest of the season is brutal.
All 17 games, but I believe it does not predict everyone's future games so it's based on current records.
We'll of course know a lot more in 4-5 months, but it'd be great to be in the top two and take advantage of someone wanting to trade up for Sanders or Ward.