Reading this post, and also @SMU_Sox evaluation of last year vs this year, starting to make sense why the Patriots didn’t bring any other WR candidates in for visits.
Let's manifest this! I will still be surprised, but this development gives me some hope.
people had Daniels in the top 3 back in December
Seems this way. It actually appears more likely he falls into the 20s than goes Top 3. The Giants could also be scouting him on that basis, as a late R1 trade-up option.
Ugh. Reading this makes me sick to my stomach.
I don't know if i can handle this. I already don't really want Campbell (I don't hate him, just prefer Membou) but I can somewhat understand if all of the top guys are gone. If Carter is there and they pass on him, I am going to scream into a pillow for a good 2 minutes
Same. Hence why I am preparing now. And stocking up on booze. And starting drinking early on draft day.
Oh god, yeah you're right. I will have to try so hard not to overreact lol. Your bolded point is a critical one. It's also why I am so bummed that our LT situation is what it is going into the draft. Setting us up to fail
. Still though, no matter what, we should remember that rookies stink and that's normal and to be expected. A good rookie starter is the exception and not the norm even at pick 4.
This is strictly an anecdotal vibes thing but I feel like the typical discourse around a LT going top 5 is almost invariably "this guy is an absolute beast, physical specimen, allowed 0 sacks, permanent marker him in at LT for 15 years" type commentary. Now, those guys can and do fail, get kicked inside, whatever, but at top 5 those downsides tend to be a bigger surprise, no?* Whereas with Campbell the downsides feel so present as to be expected, and without the upside** to make that downside risk worth it.
I have the same vibes. You're looking for an Orlando Pace, Jonathan Ogden type of dude in the top 5.
This doesn’t match up with reality. Link below to the last 25 4th overall picks.
The narrative feels different than most top 5 OT picks.
If SMU knows all this, then surely Mike Vrabel does too, right?
Did they know something we didn't know when they traded out of drafting Ladd last year to take Polk instead? They have earned zero benefit of the doubt. Even Vrabel.
Alright, but so I'm back to this question then: if SMU knows all this detail about Campbell, don't you think that Vrabel does? Or do you think the Patriots just go with "he was an All-American at a position of need and that's good enough for me"?
I would like to think he does, and yet almost all reporting and mock drafts have them taking Campbell.
What does Vrabel have to do with last year's draft?
Exactly. It's about the error bars. Vrabel and his team aren't going to say "Yeah we are legit concerned about this guy holding up at LT at pick 4".
There are more than 2 options here. C) They see the risk differently, D) they think they can fix his over aggression and kickslide which will solve his issues, etc.
I'm just trying to decide if I should panic now or wait until day 1 of the draft.
I can't escape that feeling either. There's no harm to the Patriots in Vrabel blowing smoke up everyone's ass about Campbell, even if he has no intention of taking him at 4.
I have a hard time believing that Vrabel, who "grew up" with tight-lipped Belichick, would so obviously telegraph who he was "really" interested in.
The Pats’ gaping hole at LT does provide compelling cover for a misdirection campaign.
Generally speaking, it reminds me of defensive backfield projections -- corner v. safety.
Sidestepping the Campbell talk for a bit. I would really love to see the Patriots draft a safety with one of their picks. Feel like there’s a roster spot available/position need in New England. Feel like it’s an undervalued position (where good players aren’t drafted high). Feel like this draft class seems pretty deep. I know we have needs everywhere, but somewhere in the third if someone falls a bit, feel like it’s a real opportunity.
You can't expect to get a HoF player at #4 but there are a ton of very good players on that list, as well as some cautionary tales.
Agreed. I just don’t like purity tests that start with player X at 4 needs to meet y criteria. The only criteria he needs to meet is being better than the alternatives, including trade options. If the criteria is Orlando Pace it sounds like you are getting ready to complain over nothing.
