2024 UEFA Men’s European Championship

[CFB_Rules]

As a trial balloon, I'd even settle for the stop-start clock in stoppage time only. Let the official add whatever they think is necessary at the end of the 45/90, and then actually play whatever was added.

I've been a soccer fan for my entire life, and I can never rationalize the clock rules to new fans.

I would actually do the exact opposite of this. The best part of the current system is that the end of the half is floating. That way time is never “expiring” right in the middle of a good attack or even worse as a ball is about to enter goal.

Start/Stop the clock during the match when teams are milking it or subbing or whatever. Leave the expiration of the half unknown.

EDIT: or yeah, just do what FIFA did in the World Cup. The biggest downside of the current system is that it encourages and rewards hysterics and time wasting

 

[Royal Reader]

And now you can fuck off - with respect. You don't want us anyway. You don't need us, you're good, great even.

We'll be fine. It's all good.

Why want to hang onto something you neither like or respect? Silly that.

Edit: I better can the politics or i'll get ma erse felt.

Ah man Fletch, you know there's a reason I've stuck to the silly banter and not advanced anything approaching an actual argument. Love you. And Scotland. And, as it happens, the Germans, so I better leave this pub sharpish...

 

[fletcherpost]

Ah man Fletch, you know there's a reason I've stuck to the silly banter and not advanced anything approaching an actual argument. Love you. And Scotland. And, as it happens, the Germans, so I better leave this pub sharpish...

No mate. It's all good. But, I owed you one respectful fuck off, seeing as I fucked off earlier in the thread.

It's all good. Has to be all good.

I bit. I opined. But I'm on the whiskies. It's a sare fecht.

It's all good. It's your boozer as much as anybody's.

 

[coremiller]

At some point, maybe it's time to ask whether the narrative is wrong?

They are in the final. After they win the trophy, what is the story going to be?

England have gone out and taken charge of this shit. Footy is way too hard to say that's in spite of the manager. Three wins after going down in the knockouts? That doesn't happen.

Maybe people should just say, "we were wrong."

This is nuts. Southgate has been awful this tournament and the team is winning in spite of him, not because of him. His tactics have been utterly dreadful, starting with only taking one injured left back on the roster. Even today, the subs he made were obvious ones that came 15 minutes too late.

The non-penalty xG in this game ended up at .56 for the Dutch to .51 for England. Against the Swiss, it was 1.47 to .65 for England. Against Slovakia, it was 2.15 to 1.52 for England. England have been outplayed in every knockout match despite having far more talent than any of their opponents.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

I don’t like stopping the clock because the moment you allow that I feel they’re going to use stoppages for ads.

 

[teddykgb]

At some point, maybe it's time to ask whether the narrative is wrong?

They are in the final. After they win the trophy, what is the story going to be?

England have gone out and taken charge of this shit. Footy is way too hard to say that's in spite of the manager. Three wins after going down in the knockouts? That doesn't happen.

Maybe people should just say, "we were wrong."

They got a cupcake schedule compared to the other half. That’s not managerial genius. Spain Germany France and Portugal were all better than Switzerland and Netherlands

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

This is nuts. Southgate has been awful this tournament and the team is winning in spite of him, not because of him. His tactics have been utterly dreadful, starting with only taking one injured left back on the roster. Even today, the subs he made were obvious ones that came 15 minutes too late.

The non-penalty xG in this game ended up at .56 for the Dutch to .51 for England. Against the Swiss, it was 1.47 to .65 for England. Against Slovakia, it was 2.15 to 1.52 for England. England have been outplayed in every knockout match despite having far more talent than any of their opponents.

It's a good thing for England they don't give a trophy for xG. :0)

I guess the narrative if they win is going to be that they had the most talent so yeah of course they won. I've been rooting against them in every match, and am rooting hard for Spain, although I guess after being the one carrying the torch today for Southgate I'll get some internet points if they prevail. I'm also not trying to pick a fight.

I just don't really understand how anyone could watch the tournament so far and not be incredibly impressed by their resilience, and it's hard to understand how that could be in spite of their manager.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

This is nuts. Southgate has been awful this tournament and the team is winning in spite of him, not because of him. His tactics have been utterly dreadful, starting with only taking one injured left back on the roster. Even today, the subs he made were obvious ones that came 15 minutes too late.

The non-penalty xG in this game ended up at .56 for the Dutch to .51 for England. Against the Swiss, it was 1.47 to .65 for England. Against Slovakia, it was 2.15 to 1.52 for England. England have been outplayed in every knockout match despite having far more talent than any of their opponents.

Not sure there was *that* much to criticise about Southgate’s management this game. Strong first half. Good change to bring in Shaw since Trippier was the weak spot in the first half. Don’t think Ollie Watkins was that obvious a sub to bring on, I would’ve guessed Toney myself and that was a classic Watkins from a weird angle goal.

Agree that the team flagged in the second half but even then it felt like England had the best chance in the Saka offside goal. And as for sub timing agreed they probably could have come in earlier, but I’m fine with the change considering they had 40 minutes left to play (if Watkins hadn’t scored).

There’s been a lot to slag Southgate for in previous games, and I don’t think he was a tactical genius or anything in this game. Probably about bang average, which is all he really needed to be for a team like this

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Not sure there was *that* much to criticise about Southgate’s management this game. Strong first half. Good change to bring in Shaw since Trippier was the weak spot in the first half. Don’t think Ollie Watkins was that obvious a sub to bring on, I would’ve guessed Toney myself and that was a classic Watkins from a weird angle goal.

Agree that the team flagged in the second half but even then it felt like England had the best chance in the Saka offside goal. And as for sub timing agreed they probably could have come in earlier, but I’m fine with the change considering they had 40 minutes left to play (if Watkins hadn’t scored).

There’s been a lot to slag Southgate for in previous games, and I don’t think he was a tactical genius or anything in this game. Probably about bang average, which is all he really needed to be for a team like this

I don’t think the team flagged in the second half so much as the Dutch put on an extra midfielder, so that England no longer had an easy overload there, and England reverted to being a side with no clue how to progress the ball past a mid block defense. That’s on Southgate. It’s very hard to beat that kind of defense without players who can run behind and he doesn’t select any except Saka. He’s currently got two 10s playing behind a striker who only moves backward and a LWB that is slow and right footed.

Not long after the statuesque Kane comes off, Watkins makes a run Kane wouldn’t make and creates a yard of space Kane couldn’t create.

Southgate will learn nothing from this and Kane will be in the starting lineup next Sunday.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

It's a good thing for England they don't give a trophy for xG. :0)

I guess the narrative if they win is going to be that they had the most talent so yeah of course they won. I've been rooting against them in every match, and am rooting hard for Spain, although I guess after being the one carrying the torch today for Southgate I'll get some internet points if they prevail. I'm also not trying to pick a fight.

I just don't really understand how anyone could watch the tournament so far and not be incredibly impressed by their resilience, and it's hard to understand how that could be in spite of their manager.

Pre-Southgate the English story at tournaments has historically been a story of either talented teams falling apart at the first sign of adversity (Iceland 2016, whatever the group stage crap was in 1994 and 2014), plucky underdogs giving a good performance but unable to stop better teams (Brazil 1970, Argentina 1986) including because of heartbreaking penalty losses (Germany 1990, Germany 1996, Argentina 1998, Brazil 2002, Portugal 2006, Italy 2012). Tactically he might be terrible and I’m not sure I would want him managing a club I support, but his teams don’t fold and know how to take penalties and that alone makes him a better England manager than any of the rest I’ve seen in my life.

 

[swiftaw]

They got a cupcake schedule compared to the other half. That’s not managerial genius. Spain Germany France and Portugal were all better than Switzerland and Netherlands

They got a ‘cupcake’ schedule because France and Belgium couldn’t win their groups, something that England managed to do. You can only play the teams the draw gives you.

Have England been poor in multiple matches, yes. Are they in the final, yes. Don’t get any prizes for playing well and losing.

On form, I’m sure everyone thinks Spain is going to destroy them, but we’ll see.

Has Southgate made mistakes, absolutely. Only taking one half-fit left back was dumb. Continually playing a clearly not fit Kane is also not great. Perhaps the players are winning in spite of him, perhaps they are winning because of things he is doing behind the scenes, but either way, they are one of only two teams still alive.

 

[teddykgb]

They got a ‘cupcake’ schedule because France and Belgium couldn’t win their groups, something that England managed to do. You can only play the teams the draw gives you.

Have England been poor in multiple matches, yes. Are they in the final, yes. Don’t get any prizes for playing well and losing.

On form, I’m sure everyone thinks Spain is going to destroy them, but we’ll see.

I don’t begrudge them for actually winning and they should be excited. Yes, you play the schedule in front of you. But talking about Southgate like he deserves more credit than he is getting is crazy when a chalk run probably has them out 2 rounds ago the way they have played.

 

[swiftaw]

I don’t begrudge them for actually winning and they should be excited. Yes, you play the schedule in front of you. But talking about Southgate like he deserves more credit than he is getting is crazy when a chalk run probably has them out 2 rounds ago the way they have played.

I dont think I’ve ever talked up Southgate, i think he is too risk averse in many instances but in the end it’s a results business and his team is in the final. To be fair, most teams have been lackluster this tournament (or at least had lackluster periods), with the exception of Spain and maybe Germany. The first half today was England’s best of the tournament so perhaps they are finally gelling (although the second half was worse when Southgate again went ultra-cautious).

 

[Cellar-Door]

I don't think Southgate is very good, but....

England Manager is kind of a shit job because the British press always wildly overrate the National team's talent level.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

They got a cupcake schedule compared to the other half. That’s not managerial genius. Spain Germany France and Portugal were all better than Switzerland and Netherlands

This is one of those critiques that I absolutely do not buy.

Spain for sure, and France not topping their group maybe overloads that side of the bracket, but other than historical rating what makes Germany and Portugal heads and shoulders better than Switzerland or Netherlands at this tournament? Germany needed a last minute goal to get a draw with Switzerland and I’d say in their respective round of 16 2-0 wins Switzerland’s trashing of Italy was more impressive than Germany’s win over Denmark. Of course the moment the Swiss fall to England they’re suddenly treated like dross.

Meanwhile Portugal was like an even more extreme version of England, a team filled to the brim with talent who insist on giving too much playing time to their iconic but clearly tired captain. And played their last 330 minutes without scoring a goal, including against Georgia and Slovenia.

Ultimately if you compare the paths of the two finalists Spain’s Georgia-Germany-France route is tougher than England’s Slovenia-Switzerland-Netherlands one, but the edge isn’t as stark as Southgate’s detractors make it.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

At some point, maybe it's time to ask whether the narrative is wrong?

They are in the final. After they win the trophy, what is the story going to be?

England have gone out and taken charge of this shit. Footy is way too hard to say that's in spite of the manager. Three wins after going down in the knockouts? That doesn't happen.

Winning 3 games in a row, one on penalties? Of course these things happen. I bet if we look at the top leagues, we ll find a ton of mediocre teams that had 4 game winning streaks, or even better non-losing streaks.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

Pre-Southgate the English story at tournaments has historically been a story of either talented teams falling apart at the first sign of adversity (Iceland 2016, whatever the group stage crap was in 1994 and 2014), plucky underdogs giving a good performance but unable to stop better teams (Brazil 1970, Argentina 1986) including because of heartbreaking penalty losses (Germany 1990, Germany 1996, Argentina 1998, Brazil 2002, Portugal 2006, Italy 2012). Tactically he might be terrible and I’m not sure I would want him managing a club I support, but his teams don’t fold and know how to take penalties and that alone makes him a better England manager than any of the rest I’ve seen in my life.

Cups are a weighted lottery and we are prone as a species to building narratives. It's very likely that Southgate's great ability is to be present at the time where the dice re falling England's way.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

The best argument for Southgate IMO is that finding a way to fit Bellingham and Fodden together given their uneven talent distribution on the wing back dept was a difficult to unsolvable problem that no manager could do well with.

His risk aversion is infuriating however.

I say that as a person rooting for England since i was a child.

 

[teddykgb]

I’m sorry but I’m just not having this. If you have England the ability to pick their draw after the round of 16 stage they probably pick to play exactly the teams they played. Maybe they’d have risked Turkey over Switzerland. Arguments that Swiss and Netherlands are better than France Germany and Portugal because of the results when those teams played each other in a single elimination knockout is not compelling to me. It’s ok to say they got a great draw. Teams fail to navigate great draws all the time. But again this backlash sentiment that maybe Southgate is really good after all because his team arrived here in the final again without having to play the best teams in Europe just doesn’t work for me.

 

[Zomp]

Can someone tell me how Mainoo did? I didn’t watch the game

 

[Zomp]

Nm reading reports that he was excellent

 

[67YAZ]

Can someone tell me how Mainoo did? I didn’t watch the game

He did everything and was everywhere, especially in the first half before the Dutch took off Depay for another mid. Mainoo was all over and making things happen for the English.

After the half the Dutch packed the middle and forced play wide, things really slowed down, and there wasn’t much he could do.

It was a great showing for the kid. I’d start him against Spain without hesitation.

 

[teddykgb]

What I like about Mainoo is that he seems able to slow the match down. A lot of times these young kids make a mark on sheer energy and willpower but he plays under a lot of control and calmness while still making an impact. He’s looked better than Rice to me but there may be a grading on a curve issue there

 

[Kliq]

I agree that England have not played particularly well.

At the same time, a lot of teams in this tournament have felt like they've underachieved relative to the talent they have available. We saw how poor France looked. Ditto for Portugal. Even a team like Spain isn't exactly playing glorious football.

International tournaments are often messy and gritty. It's a lot of very talented players kind of winging it together while a manager tried to get the most out of them.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

Cups are a weighted lottery and we are prone as a species to building narratives. It's very likely that Southgate's great ability is to be present at the time where the dice re falling England's way.

Fair enough, but I do think one area where Southgate has made a positive change that we can point to is to the English approach to penalties, since that is corroborated by actual reports of how deliberate his approach is (together with the FA as a whole of course). That doesn’t mean he will win them all as the 2021 final showed, but it is certainly at least a damn sight better than every other manager before him.

Mostly I’m infuriated to learn that the cause of so much of my grief supporting England turned out in retrospect to be previous managers being stupid about penalties.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

I’m sorry but I’m just not having this. If you have England the ability to pick their draw after the round of 16 stage they probably pick to play exactly the teams they played. Maybe they’d have risked Turkey over Switzerland. Arguments that Swiss and Netherlands are better than France Germany and Portugal because of the results when those teams played each other in a single elimination knockout is not compelling to me. It’s ok to say they got a great draw. Teams fail to navigate great draws all the time. But again this backlash sentiment that maybe Southgate is really good after all because his team arrived here in the final again without having to play the best teams in Europe just doesn’t work for me.

I think we might just be reacting to two different information environments - the age-old difficulty when you’re arguing whether someone is overrated is that you need a common baseline of how he is currently rated, and I’m not sure we have that common baseline. I have no illusions that Southgate is really good tactically. But what I hear a lot is that England got a cakewalk draw which I think really undersells the quality of the opposition that it faced.

I used the head to head results mostly as an illustration of the fact that I don’t really think there’s the huge gulf between Germany vs Switzerland and the Netherlands that critics seem to imagine. Generally ranking systems don’t have a wide gulf between the teams. If you use FIFA rankings to see the difficulty of the path each finalist took, based on the latest rankings as of June 20, Spain had a vastly tougher group stage than England (or than anyone else really - their group was ridiculous), but their knockout stage route to the final was Georgia (74th), Germany (16th), and France (2nd). Meanwhile England beat Slovakia (45th), Switzerland (19th), and the Dutch (7th). If you don’t like FIFA’s methodology, the World Football Elo Ratings (which I actually prefer) has Georgia 42nd / Germany 10th / France 4th vs Slovakia 43rd / Switzerland 13th / Netherlands 8th. To me these rankings pass the smell test when you look at how these teams actually played in this tournament and how they’ve been playing for the past year or so.

It’s an edge to Spain for suew and the win over France seals it but for me it’s not the titans vs minnows argument that their respective paths gets presented as.

 

[Stanley Steamer]

That was a wonderful strike by Watkins, which turned a match that appeared destined for extra time. Well done to England, and to the futbol community of SOSH for engaging in such lively debate. It gives me good perspective. Few would credit Southgate with maximizing the potential of his squad, but there is no questioning his track record. Sure, he and England need a win in the final to cement some sort of obnoxious legacy, but he clearly has the room amongst his players. It works.
That said, I still see Spain as the winner on Sunday. England will flatter to deceive, as the Brits like to say.

 

[Royal Reader]

The weird thing about the Southgate argument is that it seems to be completely disconnected from any comparison of real-world alternatives. Most international managers seem to be pretty crappy (if they weren't, they'd have big club jobs) and the English bench is likely thinner than most comparable nations. Like, de la Fuente's highest profile club job was Alaves. The other dugout last night was occupied by a guy who was sacked by Everton, and whose greatest managerial achievement was probably finishing sixth in the PL.

The likely successor seems to me to be Graham Potter, who's a well-liked coach whose teams play a lot of the kind of backward and square football that this team gets criticised for. He wasn't available in December 22, so the other options would have been what? Lee Carsley, Sean Dyche or Frank Lampard. Or AN other foreign coach who couldn't get a PL job.

I'd fully accept that England would be better with Jurgen Klopp, maybe even ETH. That's not the kind of market they're shopping in, though.

 

[Verryfunny2]

Potential Saka handball preceding the penalty. Uefa putting in incompetent refs and vars.

 

[rguilmar]

I agree that England have not played particularly well.

At the same time, a lot of teams in this tournament have felt like they've underachieved relative to the talent they have available. We saw how poor France looked. Ditto for Portugal. Even a team like Spain isn't exactly playing glorious football.

International tournaments are often messy and gritty. It's a lot of very talented players kind of winging it together while a manager tried to get the most out of them.

I agree with all that of this except for Spain. This is the most entertaining Spain team of my lifetime, and that includes the great teams a decade ago. They’re not as talented but they are fun to watch. The lone exception is the second half against France where they basically asked the French to attack, and France never really did. I’ve been very critical of Spain over the last few years as has Diaz and other Spanish fans. This team is fun.

If Spain hasn’t played glorious football, then who has?

 

[PedroSpecialK]

View attachment 85376

Potential Saka handball preceding the penalty. Uefa putting in incompetent refs and vars.

Video is pretty damning. Kane's shot comes on the next touch

https://v.redd.it/5sqn0hagjrbd1

 

[Silverdude2167]

Video is pretty damning. Kane's shot comes on the next touch

https://v.redd.it/5sqn0hagjrbd1

You can't expect the ref to rewind 2 seconds when he has to focus on an inhuman tackle that caused the amputation of Kane's foot.

 

[SocrManiac]

You can't expect the ref to rewind 2 seconds when he has to focus on an inhuman tackle that caused the amputation of Kane's foot.

Kane converting a penalty with such a horrific injury was absolutely heroic.

 

[Verryfunny2]

You can't expect the ref to rewind 2 seconds when he has to focus on an inhuman tackle that caused the amputation of Kane's foot.

Yeah think the VAR was throwing up so much looking at that he could not rewind. It was horrific.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Until yesterday, I though Southgate was having a difficult tournament.

But he made two subs for players he seemed to previously favor (Trippier and Foden), took Kane off who was doing nothing, and did it early enough in the match for his subs to have an effect. And two players he subbed on (Watkins and Palmer) created the winning goal because they brought something the players they replaced did not. Watkins in particular was an unexpected sub as most people seemed to think it would be Toney coming on.

And for all the stick he gets for negative tactics, the Dutch had 11 players behind the ball at times during the match. Tournament football is a different beast from nearly anything else.

England won't be favored against Spain, nor should they. But I didn't expect them to beat the Dutch either.

 

[BosoxFaninCincy]

Gareth deserves huge huge credit both subs made the difference tonight.

Yes, there was some Terry Francona level work at the blackjack table with his subs.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

If you think that England being the 20th best team in this tourney in terms of producing chances at a level which is worse than Luton Town in the EPL is commensurate with the talent of her players, then thinking that Southgate is doing a good job is justified.

View: https://twitter.com/xGPhilosophy/status/1811144915889574035

 

[singaporesoxfan]

I agree with all that of this except for Spain. This is the most entertaining Spain team of my lifetime, and that includes the great teams a decade ago. They’re not as talented but they are fun to watch. The lone exception is the second half against France where they basically asked the French to attack, and France never really did. I’ve been very critical of Spain over the last few years as has Diaz and other Spanish fans. This team is fun.

If Spain hasn’t played glorious football, then who has?

Yeah this Spanish team is way more fun to watch than the death-by-a-thousand-passes possession football teams from that late 2000s/early 2010s period, even if those teams were better

 

[DJnVa]

Saka looks incredible so far

Forget the actual foul, should VAR have caught this in the build up?

 

[wonderland]

That’s the thing with slow motion you can create any angle you want. I don’t recall the Dutch players saying anything about a handball in real time.

Also, Drake is so horrible. Early in the match, Donavan said this could feel like Premier league match because of the number of players that play in the league then a minute later Drake says the same thing without acknowledged that Landon just said it. He is also obsessed with saying surely that’s the winner after any goal past 80 minutes. He keeps saying it despite a number of late goals in this tournament. And him rambling about Southgate as the final whistle blew really captured the moment.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

The weird thing about the Southgate argument is that it seems to be completely disconnected from any comparison of real-world alternatives. Most international managers seem to be pretty crappy (if they weren't, they'd have big club jobs) and the English bench is likely thinner than most comparable nations. Like, de la Fuente's highest profile club job was Alaves. The other dugout last night was occupied by a guy who was sacked by Everton, and whose greatest managerial achievement was probably finishing sixth in the PL.

The likely successor seems to me to be Graham Potter, who's a well-liked coach whose teams play a lot of the kind of backward and square football that this team gets criticised for. He wasn't available in December 22, so the other options would have been what? Lee Carsley, Sean Dyche or Frank Lampard. Or AN other foreign coach who couldn't get a PL job.

I'd fully accept that England would be better with Jurgen Klopp, maybe even ETH. That's not the kind of market they're shopping in, though.

This is pretty much where I am. Do I think Southgate is a tactical genius? Hell no. Do I think he's maximising the potential of a very talented squad? Again no, far from it. But if you have said very talented squad, maybe all you need is a bang average manager who at least seems to have an idea of what to do during penalties. As international managers go, Southgate seems fine. I took a look at the list of current Euro 2024 managers. It's not a spectacular list. Of the big country coaches, how many are really head and shoulders above Southgate?

 

[coremiller]

This is pretty much where I am. Do I think Southgate is a tactical genius? Hell no. Do I think he's maximising the potential of a very talented squad? Again no, far from it. But if you have said very talented squad, maybe all you need is a bang average manager who at least seems to have an idea of what to do during penalties. As international managers go, Southgate seems fine. I took a look at the list of current Euro 2024 managers. It's not a spectacular list. Of the big country coaches, how many are really head and shoulders above Southgate?

Rangnick, Nagelsman, Spalletti (although he had a poor tournament), and Koeman are clearly better managers than Southgate. Deschamps and Roberto Martinez are a step down from that tier but probably still better than Southgate.

 

[Jimy Hendrix]

Rangnick, Nagelsman, Spalletti (although he had a poor tournament), and Koeman are clearly better managers than Southgate. Deschamps and Roberto Martinez are a step down from that tier but probably still better than Southgate.

Martinez as a better international manager than Southgate feels pretty out of step with the results each have gotten out of their extremely talented squads over the years.

 

[Verryfunny2]

That’s the thing with slow motion you can create any angle you want. I don’t recall the Dutch players saying anything about a handball in real time.

Like they created the angle on the "foul" on Kane. This is the leadup, VAR should check it. Players can't protest to the ref, they get a yellow. Van Dijk was talking to the ref so maybe it came up. Even if the players didnt see it, the VAR should and act on it because it is vital in giving the penalty. They showed the "foul" about 10 times, why not the leadup 2 seconds earlier?

 

[allstonite]

You can see Van Dijk put his hand up calling for hand ball in the corner of the frame in the video from Reddit above

 

[singaporesoxfan]

Rangnick, Nagelsman, Spalletti (although he had a poor tournament), and Koeman are clearly better managers than Southgate. Deschamps and Roberto Martinez are a step down from that tier but probably still better than Southgate.

Rangnick and Nagelsmann, yes, absolutely. Deschamps is probably a better manager but I found Deschampsball even more boring to watch than Southgateball.

Koeman was dire in managing Everton, wasn’t that impressive at Barca, and I'm not sure his tactics yesterday or this tournament showed me anything that made me think he is a clearly better manager. Feels like every Dutch game I watched - Austria, Turkey, and even England despite the early goal - featured the Dutch being the weaker side in the first 30 minutes, and that’s a knock on his game planning. Good in game adjustments and he deserves credit for that, but overall I would take Southgate over him.

Meanwhile I loved when Roberto Martinez managed Everton but if the critique of Southgate at this Euros is "not getting the most out of a talented squad" I would say Martinez was even worse at it.

That’s why I go back to saying Southgate is fine. An average manager with a strong penalty approach that relies on a very talented squad to burnish his rep is good enough for what England needs at this moment. The fact that he has a decent approach to pens alone makes him great by England standards, even

I will add that one thing I like about international football is the improv and ragtag nature of the games that sees better-managed sides lose out to superior talent more often than in club games. It’s one of the things that makes me prefer baseball to American football - in baseball you can have middling managers ride really good teams to World Series glory while in American football you almost never hear about a coach winning the Super Bowl despite his tactics.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I will add that one thing I like about international football is the improv and ragtag nature of the games that sees better-managed sides lose out to superior talent more often than in club games. It’s one of the things that makes me prefer baseball to American football - in baseball you can have middling managers ride really good teams to World Series glory while in American football you almost never hear about a coach winning the Super Bowl despite his tactics.

Bruce Arians and Barry Switzer are two that immediately come to mind, but few others.

 

[wonderland]

Like they created the angle on the "foul" on Kane. This is the leadup, VAR should check it. Players can't protest to the ref, they get a yellow. Van Dijk was talking to the ref so maybe it came up. Even if the players didnt see it, the VAR should and act on it because it is vital in giving the penalty. They showed the "foul" about 10 times, why not the leadup 2 seconds earlier?

Absolutely on the first part. Which is why they should never slow down replay to frame by frame.

 

[Verryfunny2]

Why not do it like baseball and tennis. Give the coaches 2 challenges per game. 20 seconds to take a challenge, if not play continues. Game cant grow more static as it is anyways.

 

[Zososoxfan]

From a Spanish perspective, it’s been interesting watching them change their style based on where many of their players come from. The last generation had a strong Catalan influence, many coming through La Masia, so they played tiki taka. This generation is more Basque influenced, so they play more direct in attack, and are dangerous while sitting back and waiting for their chances if that’s what the game is calling for. They can knock it around still, and that possession around the 75th minute mark was much needed, but in it is no way like those teams of the past

This is awesome, thank you for sharing this.

At some point, maybe it's time to ask whether the narrative is wrong?

They are in the final. After they win the trophy, what is the story going to be?

England have gone out and taken charge of this shit. Footy is way too hard to say that's in spite of the manager. Three wins after going down in the knockouts? That doesn't happen.

Maybe people should just say, "we were wrong."

Ex post facto logic.

I think it's clear they are playing a very conservative, defensive-oriented approach that is focused on ball control and avoiding risks. Which has been pretty boring and unexpected given the offensive fire power that England possesses, but also a proven method to winning tournaments.

He has had the most talented roster in every game and has needed extra time to win each time.

The wins have come from the players, not the team set up.

Hell if the ref doesn't miss a clear corner or not call a phantom foul in the two min leading up to the winning goal. They might not be advancing.

He has underperformed his way to the final.

This is nuts. Southgate has been awful this tournament and the team is winning in spite of him, not because of him. His tactics have been utterly dreadful, starting with only taking one injured left back on the roster. Even today, the subs he made were obvious ones that came 15 minutes too late.

The non-penalty xG in this game ended up at .56 for the Dutch to .51 for England. Against the Swiss, it was 1.47 to .65 for England. Against Slovakia, it was 2.15 to 1.52 for England. England have been outplayed in every knockout match despite having far more talent than any of their opponents.

They got a cupcake schedule compared to the other half. That’s not managerial genius. Spain Germany France and Portugal were all better than Switzerland and Netherlands

It's a good thing for England they don't give a trophy for xG. :0)

I guess the narrative if they win is going to be that they had the most talent so yeah of course they won. I've been rooting against them in every match, and am rooting hard for Spain, although I guess after being the one carrying the torch today for Southgate I'll get some internet points if they prevail. I'm also not trying to pick a fight.

I just don't really understand how anyone could watch the tournament so far and not be incredibly impressed by their resilience, and it's hard to understand how that could be in spite of their manager.

I don’t think the team flagged in the second half so much as the Dutch put on an extra midfielder, so that England no longer had an easy overload there, and England reverted to being a side with no clue how to progress the ball past a mid block defense. That’s on Southgate. It’s very hard to beat that kind of defense without players who can run behind and he doesn’t select any except Saka. He’s currently got two 10s playing behind a striker who only moves backward and a LWB that is slow and right footed.

Not long after the statuesque Kane comes off, Watkins makes a run Kane wouldn’t make and creates a yard of space Kane couldn’t create.

Southgate will learn nothing from this and Kane will be in the starting lineup next Sunday.

Pre-Southgate the English story at tournaments has historically been a story of either talented teams falling apart at the first sign of adversity (Iceland 2016, whatever the group stage crap was in 1994 and 2014), plucky underdogs giving a good performance but unable to stop better teams (Brazil 1970, Argentina 1986) including because of heartbreaking penalty losses (Germany 1990, Germany 1996, Argentina 1998, Brazil 2002, Portugal 2006, Italy 2012). Tactically he might be terrible and I’m not sure I would want him managing a club I support, but his teams don’t fold and know how to take penalties and that alone makes him a better England manager than any of the rest I’ve seen in my life.

I love them both but differently. Sometimes you want pan seared scallops served served over spinach with a light sauce, paired with a refreshing Albariño. Other times you want steak cooked rare with something to wash it down with.

I am concerned with the security, or lack thereof, at these games. The World Cup will have to be handled better.

I agree with all that of this except for Spain. This is the most entertaining Spain team of my lifetime, and that includes the great teams a decade ago. They’re not as talented but they are fun to watch. The lone exception is the second half against France where they basically asked the French to attack, and France never really did. I’ve been very critical of Spain over the last few years as has Diaz and other Spanish fans. This team is fun.

If Spain hasn’t played glorious football, then who has?

If you think that England being the 20th best team in this tourney in terms of producing chances at a level which is worse than Luton Town in the EPL is commensurate with the talent of her players, then thinking that Southgate is doing a good job is justified.

View: https://twitter.com/xGPhilosophy/status/1811144915889574035

This is pretty much where I am. Do I think Southgate is a tactical genius? Hell no. Do I think he's maximising the potential of a very talented squad? Again no, far from it. But if you have said very talented squad, maybe all you need is a bang average manager who at least seems to have an idea of what to do during penalties. As international managers go, Southgate seems fine. I took a look at the list of current Euro 2024 managers. It's not a spectacular list. Of the big country coaches, how many are really head and shoulders above Southgate?

I'm of the mind that Southgate has held England back, but let's look at some data. Let's also acknowledge from the outset that xG isn't the end all be all and has flaws, and that data for cup competitions is going to be noisy due to small sample size.

Below is World Cup/Eurocup xGD for previous tournaments where data is available. I list out the finalists, semifinalists, QFists, and highest and lowest xGD from R16ists. FYI Southgate has been manager since 2016:

WC 2018
France = +4.4
Croatia = +2.6

Belgium = +5.4
England = +3.5

Uruguay +4.2
Brazil +7.4
Sweden +2.2
Russia -1.4

Spain +3.6
Mexico -1.9


Eurocup 2021
Italy +7.2
England +5.7

Spain +9.3
Denmark +2.8

Belgium +0.5
Czech -0.5
Switzerland -3.5
Ukraine -1.3

[PAUSE, let's all take a moment to remember how batshit that tournament was, esp. R16].

Holland +4.6
Sweden -1.4
France +2.3
Austria -0.8
Portugal +2.9
Croatia -2.4
Germany +2.6
Wales -3.1

WC 2022
Argentina = +10.4
France = +3.9

Croatia -4
Morocco -0.8

Holland -1.5
England +4.6
Brazil +9.9
Portugal +1.5

Australia -4.9
Spain +2.7


Eurocup 2024
For Euro '24, FBRef doesn't have the final table completed yet, so let's just look at top 2 xGD from the group stage, and add the semifinalists:

Spain +2.8
England +1.0

Holland 0.0
France +3.3

Germany +3.2
Portugal +2.9
Belgium +1.9
Denmark +0.9
Switzerland +0.5
Turkey +0.3
Romania -0.1
Italy -0.9
Austria -1.5


For England only:
WC '18 +3.5
Euro '21 +5.7
WC '22 +4.6
Euro '24 (group stage) +1.0

What this data tells me (without doing actual statistical analysis) is that xGD is generally a good predictor of tournament progression, but it's still noisy. In WC '18 xGD correlation with progression was strong, in Euro '21 it correlated strongly with semis and finals but was upended big time in the R16, and in WC '22 it was strong throughout except for the QFs.

Looking at this tourney, I don't think the data is that helpful since it's missing the KO data, but Spain, Germany, Portugal, and France all show good xGD numbers whereas England is positive, but not up to the level of the others.