Before the "zonk" in the head, he made 12 starts, averaging five and a third innings per start. Projected over a 32 start season, that's roughly 170 innings. 170 innings was only accomplished by 38 pitchers in 2023.
2024 Rotation and Bullpen
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
Zach Weiss off the 40 man for utility IF Romy Gonzalez.
Starting Rotation as of today:
Depth: two of (Houck/Whitlock/Winckowski) plus Murphy, Walter. Gonzalez in AA?
Bullpen as of today: This is based off the 40 man, with * indicating options (per fangraphs). Players are listed by lack of options, and hence a requirement to be on the ML staff, not skill. There's a 13 pitcher max for the 26 man roster. 5 starters, a max of 8 relievers.
There's still pressure in the bullpen, with no left-handers apart from Bernardino. That would mean 2 of the 10 names there would have to be dropped to AAA, traded, returned, or DFA'd. But I don't see them putting any of the 5-9 spots in AAA. So they're one over.
Also on the 40-man:
Starting Rotation as of today:
1 Lucas Giolito (lock)
2 Bello (lock)
3 Pivetta (lock)
4 Crawford (lock)
5 one of Houck, Whitlock or Winckowski.
Depth: two of (Houck/Whitlock/Winckowski) plus Murphy, Walter. Gonzalez in AA?
Bullpen as of today: This is based off the 40 man, with * indicating options (per fangraphs). Players are listed by lack of options, and hence a requirement to be on the ML staff, not skill. There's a 13 pitcher max for the 26 man roster. 5 starters, a max of 8 relievers.
There's still pressure in the bullpen, with no left-handers apart from Bernardino. That would mean 2 of the 10 names there would have to be dropped to AAA, traded, returned, or DFA'd. But I don't see them putting any of the 5-9 spots in AAA. So they're one over.
1 Jansen
2 Martin
3 Justin Slaten (Rule 5)
4 Bryan Mata
leaving 4 spots for:
5 Bernardino (LHP)*
6 one of Houck*, Whitlock* or Winckowski.*
7 one of Houck*, Whitlock* or Winckowski.*
8 Schreiber*
9 Isaiah Campbell* (Urias trade from SEA 11/17/23)
Also on the 40-man:
Chris Murphy (LHP)*
Brandon Walter (LHP)*
Joe Jacques (LHP)*
Zack Kelly*
Max Castillo* (Waiver claim from KCR 1/2/24)
Greg Weissert* (Verdugo trade, 12/5/23)
Cooper Criswell* (FA signing 12/13/23)
Wikelman Gonzalez (AA)
Luis Perales (A+)
Notable but not on the 40 man:Richard Fitts (AAA), Wyatt Mills (AAA)
ST invites: Frank German, Helcris Olivarez, Cam Booser, Eddy Alvarez, Jorge Benitez.
With the news that Giolitto has a UCL tear this AM, I thought I'd bump this thread as well. A gentle reminder this is not the place to discuss trades or club management. It's to look at what exactly we have at the moment, and how effective it will likely be.
IMO, this is starting to look very thin. The rotation may or may not be fine, but the bullpen will now feature only one of the Houck/Whitlock/Winckowski group. A bullpen with two of them could be quite strong. But here we get. . .Joely Rodriguez I expect. Which puts the sort of fragile/older arm cluster at: Jansen/Martin/Rodriguez, meaning more work this season for arms which might have greater future value to the club.
Starting Rotation as of today:
Depth: one of (Houck/Whitlock/Winckowski) plus Criswell, Murphy (LHP), Walter, Fitts, Gonzalez in AA?
Also on the 40-man (or under contract/control) with * designating a possible starter:
ST invites: Frank German, Helcris Olivarez, Cam Booser, Eddy Alvarez, Jorge Benitez.
Likely to start the season on the IL: Mata, Giolitto, Wyatt Mills.
IMO, this is starting to look very thin. The rotation may or may not be fine, but the bullpen will now feature only one of the Houck/Whitlock/Winckowski group. A bullpen with two of them could be quite strong. But here we get. . .Joely Rodriguez I expect. Which puts the sort of fragile/older arm cluster at: Jansen/Martin/Rodriguez, meaning more work this season for arms which might have greater future value to the club.
Starting Rotation as of today:
1 Bello
2 Pivetta
3 Crawford
4 one of Houck, Whitlock or Winckowski.
5 one of Houck, Whitlock or Winckowski.
Depth: one of (Houck/Whitlock/Winckowski) plus Criswell, Murphy (LHP), Walter, Fitts, Gonzalez in AA?
1 Jansen
2 Martin
3 one of Houck, Whitlock or Winckowski.
4 Campbell
5 Bernardino (LHP)
6 Weissert
7 Joely Rodriguez
8 Slaten (Rule 5)
Also on the 40-man (or under contract/control) with * designating a possible starter:
Chris Murphy (LHP)*
Brandon Walter (LHP)*
Joe Jacques (LHP)
Zack Kelly
Cooper Criswell* (AAA)
Richard Fitts* (AAA)
Wikelman Gonzalez* (AA)
Luis Perales* (A+)
ST invites: Frank German, Helcris Olivarez, Cam Booser, Eddy Alvarez, Jorge Benitez.
Likely to start the season on the IL: Mata, Giolitto, Wyatt Mills.
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For better or worse I think Criswell slots in at No. 7, ahead of Murphy, Walter, Fitts, Gonzalez. At least at the start of the season.
Given the non-stop succession of early-season games (35 games in 39 days), not to mention the likelihood of pitcher injury, how about a starting rotation of
1 Bello
2 Pivetta
3 Crawford
4 Houck
5 Whitlock
6 Winckowski.
The six-man rotation is upon us.
I was thinking about that. The main downside is the ability of those starters to go deep into games and thus not tax the bullpen.
If they can't, the pen wouldn't be constructed to cover a lot of innings, say if back-to-back starters fail to get out of the 4th/5th.
1 Jansen
2 Martin
3 Campbell
4 Bernardino (LHP)
5 Weissert
6 Joely Rodriguez
7 Slaten (Rule 5)
That's assuming Mata's on the IL to start the season. But it looks pretty thin to me in terms of covering clumps of innings. Jansen and Martin aren't really guys you want on 0 days rest at this point in their careers, with Rodriguez probably in the same boat. Campbell, Bernardino, and Weissert are younger arms, but they're not really what you think of a longmen - maybe Bernardino a bit.
Perhaps they'll replace Rodriguez with Murphy or something.
Yeah, even if they all succeed as starters beyond expectations, several of them are simply going to wear out by August.
I don’t have an issue with Bello, Pivetta, Crawford and Houck. There’s upside with all 4. Bello was very good when he came up. Pivetta may be fixed. Crawford has as good of peripherals as Kirby and some other guys we were linked to. Houck was also good before the injury and good when he came up.
But they’re going to get injured and we have no depth. It’s not going to be a pretty season.
But they’re going to get injured and we have no depth. It’s not going to be a pretty season.
Re the depth issue, I see some musing about a 6 man rotation, but struggle with the logic of it. A 6 man rotation does not increase the innings you get from your starters unless it means they can go longer in each of their (less frequent) starts. Are Crawford/Houck/Whitlock going to be able to significantly increase the IP/S by moving to 6 man? I am dubious. Of course going to 6 man also means you are down one in the bullpen (from 8 to 7) to cover the other 600-650 some IPs that are not being covered by starters. IOW, going to a 6 man makes covering the bullpen innings even more impossible, requiring the team to rely on the 14-15-16th depth pieces even more.
I would prefer if they stapled, let's say Murphy (and/or Walter and/or Criswell) to Whitlock, and on their regular turn the expectation is to get 4 or so IPs from each, maybe 120 IPs from each for the season, but on regular starter's rest. A jump from 80 IPs to 120 for Whitlock seems more plausible than the jump to 150+.
They could also plan to get 90-100 IPs from Winck, with 35 to 40, 2-3 IPs stints, mostly in relief on extended rest of Crawford and Houck (150 IPs each?) ideally to get it to Martin and/or Jansen when we are up.
That would leave Slaten, Weissert, Campbell and Bernardino to cover the IPs to the back end in the Bello and Pivetta starts.
I would prefer if they stapled, let's say Murphy (and/or Walter and/or Criswell) to Whitlock, and on their regular turn the expectation is to get 4 or so IPs from each, maybe 120 IPs from each for the season, but on regular starter's rest. A jump from 80 IPs to 120 for Whitlock seems more plausible than the jump to 150+.
They could also plan to get 90-100 IPs from Winck, with 35 to 40, 2-3 IPs stints, mostly in relief on extended rest of Crawford and Houck (150 IPs each?) ideally to get it to Martin and/or Jansen when we are up.
That would leave Slaten, Weissert, Campbell and Bernardino to cover the IPs to the back end in the Bello and Pivetta starts.
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Yeah, going to agree with KillerBs above. I do not see how a 6 man rotation makes any sense with this group. If you have an Ohtani or Yamamoto who aren't used to pitching every 5th day but when they do pitch they can go deep into the game, then sure a 6 man can make sense. But for Houck and Whitlock and Winckowski (if he became the 6th) they struggle to pitch deep into the game. So now, instead of taxing your bullpen 2 out of 5 days, you are taxing a bullpen with 1 less guy 3 out of 6 days. (Not to mention that Bello, Pivetta, and Crawford aren't exactly CG gurus).
The talk about the 6-man rotation is just for the first few weeks of the season, when they start on the west coast for 10 games in 11 days, have one day off to travel back to Boston, then play 19 games in 20 days after that.
Presumably if they went with 6 starters for this period, they would use the last spot in the bullpen to rotate optionable long relievers like Walter and Murphy in and out from Worcester to keep the bullpen from getting too overworked.
The schedule is likely to be messed up if there are a couple April rainouts in Boston with no offdays built in, but I'd think they would just reschedule for later in the year rather than play April doubleheaders. Rainouts turning games into surprise offdays could keep them from using 6 starters, but there's no way to predict them.
Presumably if they went with 6 starters for this period, they would use the last spot in the bullpen to rotate optionable long relievers like Walter and Murphy in and out from Worcester to keep the bullpen from getting too overworked.
The schedule is likely to be messed up if there are a couple April rainouts in Boston with no offdays built in, but I'd think they would just reschedule for later in the year rather than play April doubleheaders. Rainouts turning games into surprise offdays could keep them from using 6 starters, but there's no way to predict them.
A six man rotation with, presumably, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, and Crawford? Which leaves us with a pen of Jansen, Martin, Bernardino, Slaten, and three other guys seems likely to lead to a lot of 5-7 innings being pitched by the three other guys. Who are likely to be folks like Isaiah Campbell, Cooper Criswell, Greg Weissert, and Joe Jacques. I don’t know if that’s good or bad.
Instead of Crawford pitching twice in the rotation, it would likely be Winckowski. 
And it wouldn't be great, that's for sure. But it might be better than the alternative due to the schedule. We're going to need a lot of innings over the long season from the starters we have, so breaking them in slowly with an extra of day for the first couple weeks might be a good idea in the long run even if it includes some short-term pain.
And it wouldn't be great, that's for sure. But it might be better than the alternative due to the schedule. We're going to need a lot of innings over the long season from the starters we have, so breaking them in slowly with an extra of day for the first couple weeks might be a good idea in the long run even if it includes some short-term pain.
I think the worry has to be (beyond the wins and losses, which this FO and ownership clearly don't care about) the risk of long-term injury through overuse because of a lack of other options or constantly swapping pitchers in and out of roles. A large part of the problem and why the Red Sox are in this particular boat is the inability during the Bloom years to develop a base of young cost-controlled pitching, and torching the meager amount they've built up in Bello, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock and Winckowski would have huge repercussions for 2025 and beyond. That's how you get stuck on a treadmill of never signing pitching because you have too many holes to fill. They need to be careful and thoughtful with that group (and whoever is behind them on the ladder) but asking them to soak up all the innings in a losing campaign instead of handing starts to whatever mediocre veterans you can get is a recipe for pain. Unappealing as it is, there's real need and value to letting guys like Michael Lorenzen or Matt Boyd or Brad Keller eat innings and wear blowouts; this team has to protect its pitching future as much as possible, and letting them get their heads kicked in constantly jeopardizes that.
Oops. My bad. I think it’s hard to make it work when the pen has a few guys who are strictly one inning pitchers in it (Jansen, Martin). You’d really need a few long men. But the guys best positioned to be long men (Murphy, Walter, etc.) reallly need to be stretched out in the minors as starters. A few 3 inning starts would really stress the pen, I think. Ideally, they’d just sign a starter or two.
Starters
1 Bello
2 Pivetta
3 Crawford
4 Houck
5 Whitlock
Bullpen
1 Jansen
2 Martin
3 Bernadino
4 Slaten
5 Campbell
Bullpen long rotation
Winckowski
Murphy
Walter
Criswell
This would entail stretching out the bullpen long rotation through the rest of spring training. Once the season starts, when a starter comes up short on innings, go with a next in line approach. Assuming a 13-man bullpen, you have 3 of the long rotation on the 25-man at any time. If all three of the long rotation are used in too short of a time, rotate out one of them for a replacement. For this to work, they'll probably need to add one or two stretched out arms to the 40-man in the highly likely case that they're current stretched out 40-man options aren't sufficient to make this kind of rotation work. Depending on Spring Training, Fitts and Hagenman might be candidates.
1 Bello
2 Pivetta
3 Crawford
4 Houck
5 Whitlock
Bullpen
1 Jansen
2 Martin
3 Bernadino
4 Slaten
5 Campbell
Bullpen long rotation
Winckowski
Murphy
Walter
Criswell
This would entail stretching out the bullpen long rotation through the rest of spring training. Once the season starts, when a starter comes up short on innings, go with a next in line approach. Assuming a 13-man bullpen, you have 3 of the long rotation on the 25-man at any time. If all three of the long rotation are used in too short of a time, rotate out one of them for a replacement. For this to work, they'll probably need to add one or two stretched out arms to the 40-man in the highly likely case that they're current stretched out 40-man options aren't sufficient to make this kind of rotation work. Depending on Spring Training, Fitts and Hagenman might be candidates.
It'll be interesting to see how they navigate those first 29 games. IMO, they're crucial to the season, since the trade deadline is likely to be pivotal for this crew. Slow start or a couple of torched arms could effectively end the season in the early days. The IL players could be interesting - Mata for one shouldn't be on the club unless he's 100% healthy and ramped up. And I'm not really sold on Rodriguez's effectiveness, despite his brilliant run.
It's pretty much emphasizing all we know about Pivetta at this point. Last year, his mid-ground was a guy you could bank on to throw the ball to around league average ERA with a tantalizing ceiling (we saw in '21, '22 how awesome he could be for stretches) that would put him in the top eschelon. But consistency.......
Midway through last season he was looking like he found a new floor, then at the end of the season maybe that thing all us optimists saw finally clicked? If he can be what he's sorta being asked to be due to trade (Sale), injury (Giolito) and lack of FA (Montgomery) then the outlook for '24 is good. If he's that inconsistent guy that he's been.... things aren't looking good no matter how much Bello builds off his '23
A few notable ST performances from guys fighting for bullpen spots with less than 2 weeks until opening day:
Justin Slaten: 5 G, 2 H, 1BB, 6K, 10.1k/9, 0.00 ERA, 0.56WHIP
Isaiah Campbell: 6 G, 3 H, 2BB, 6K, 8.5K/9, 0.00 ERA, 0.79WHIP
Greg Weissert: 6 G, 3 H, 2BB, 7K, 11.1K/9, 1.59ERA, 0.88WHIP
Justin Hagenman: 6 G, 3H, 1BB, 7K, 11.1K/9, 0.00ERA, 0.71WHIP
Jorge Benitez: (L) 6 G, 4 H, 5BB, 10K, 15.9K/9, 3.18ERA, 1.59WHIP
Luis Guerrero: 5 G, 3 H, 3BB, 6K 8.5K/(, 0.00ERA, 0.95WHIP
Justin Slaten: 5 G, 2 H, 1BB, 6K, 10.1k/9, 0.00 ERA, 0.56WHIP
Isaiah Campbell: 6 G, 3 H, 2BB, 6K, 8.5K/9, 0.00 ERA, 0.79WHIP
Greg Weissert: 6 G, 3 H, 2BB, 7K, 11.1K/9, 1.59ERA, 0.88WHIP
Justin Hagenman: 6 G, 3H, 1BB, 7K, 11.1K/9, 0.00ERA, 0.71WHIP
Jorge Benitez: (L) 6 G, 4 H, 5BB, 10K, 15.9K/9, 3.18ERA, 1.59WHIP
Luis Guerrero: 5 G, 3 H, 3BB, 6K 8.5K/(, 0.00ERA, 0.95WHIP
Hagenman, Benitez and Guerrero all need to fight their way onto the 40 man first.
I think the pen is most likely:
Jansen
Martin
Winckowski
Bernardino
Slaten
Campbell
Weissert
Murphy
But I could see them wanting to keep Murphy stretched out in AAA (same as Criswell) in case one of our starters fails/gets injured (seems likely). In that case, either Kelly or Jacques? Or DFA one of them if they both continue to suck and add Hagenman.
I think the pen is most likely:
Jansen
Martin
Winckowski
Bernardino
Slaten
Campbell
Weissert
Murphy
But I could see them wanting to keep Murphy stretched out in AAA (same as Criswell) in case one of our starters fails/gets injured (seems likely). In that case, either Kelly or Jacques? Or DFA one of them if they both continue to suck and add Hagenman.
I added those non 40 man guys because of their impressive#'s, not because i think they'll make OD roster. As for Jacques, he scares the crap out of me and i he may be a candidate to be dropped off to make room for someone else. I'd rather have Joley or Luetge as the 2nd LHP than him. But the rest of your predictions seem pretty spot on, barring injury.
I know that there has been talk about a six man rotation due to the unreliability of the starters, but I’d argue that there is a greater need for relievers who are capable of going multiple innings since Crawford, Houck, and Whitlock aren’t great bets to give you more the 5 IP. Hopefully, Jansen, Martin, and Bernardino can be high leverage one inning late game guys, with Slaten earning that responsibility over time, but there is a place for long relievers to come in when we are up (such as Winckowski and maybe Murphy) as well as down (like Criswell) following a short start.
I agree. The opening stretch is crucial for this team. If they get off to a bad start, it feels like a team that could spiral out of control quickly. Maybe we get a long winning streak and put those worries to bed early. Baseball can be that way.
Winck will not be a starter.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/03/red-sox-eliminate-josh-winckowski-from-starting-rotation-competition.html
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/03/red-sox-eliminate-josh-winckowski-from-starting-rotation-competition.html
I like it, all things considered. They need a reliable multi-inning relief guy, and my guess is that the rotation will be Bello/Pivetta/Crawford/Houck/Whitlock, with Criswell staying stretched out in Worcester.
Hard to see anything other than this in my mind. And you know, it’s compelling because if one of Houck or Whitlock proves they can start, coupled with the Giolito UCL brace, you are all of a sudden going into 2025 with Bello, Kutter, Giolito and Houck/Whitlock. That’s not a bad spot if things break right.
If things break wrong this thing could go south very quickly.
May was well update the overall list with the Winckowski/Criswell news:
Starting Rotation as of today:
Starting Depth: two of (Houck/Whitlock/Winckowski/Criswell), Murphy (LHP), Walter (AAA), Fitts (AAA), Gonzalez in AA? If Criswell is good enough to challenge Whitlock or Houck for the #5 spot, is he good enough to put in the pen, or do you send him to AAA to start?
Bullpen: Winckowski is a lock. Campbell and Bernardino have had ML success and are having good springs, so I think they're locks. Slaten is a Rule 5 who has had an excellent spring, so he's on. That leaves two spots. Weissert has had a good spring and has an obvious ML pitch, so I'll pencil him in the 7 spot.
The last man is a bit more interesting. Mata, if healthy, probably would have had the spot as he's out of options, and Criswell would go to AAA. But he's injured (again) and hasn't pitched this spring, I think. (I'm a bit relieved about that, actually.) But if Criswell gets the starting slot, Whitlock is likely to go into the bullpen, making the rest of this moot. But let's assume Criswell does not get it and goes to AAA.
On the 40 man are:
LHP options would be Murphy/Rodriguez/Letuge with Walter and Jacques more distant seconds, and maybe Booser (but his MiL numbers aren't great.)
On pure talent, Murphy's probably the best, followed maybe by Kelly, who has had a terrible spring and may? be re-injured or something, given his few innings? And Letuge, with his age and bad last year putting an asterisk on his experience. If not Kelly, Rodriguez. . .who hasn't been great.
It's a tough question - but maybe someone separates themselves in their next couple of appearances.
Likely to start the season on the IL: Mata, Giolito, Wyatt Mills, Liam Hendricks.
Note: Giolito and Hendricks are both on the 40 man and should spend the season on the 60 day IL.
(Edited to add Letuge per @Cassvt2023)
Starting Rotation as of today:
1 Bello
2 Pivetta
3 Crawford
4 one of Houck, Whitlock or Criswell.
5 one of Houck, Whitlock or Criswell.
Starting Depth: two of (Houck/Whitlock/Winckowski/Criswell), Murphy (LHP), Walter (AAA), Fitts (AAA), Gonzalez in AA? If Criswell is good enough to challenge Whitlock or Houck for the #5 spot, is he good enough to put in the pen, or do you send him to AAA to start?
1 Jansen
2 Martin
3 Winckowski
4 Campbell
5 Bernardino (LHP)
6 Slaten (Rule 5)
7 Weissert
8 Last Man
Bullpen: Winckowski is a lock. Campbell and Bernardino have had ML success and are having good springs, so I think they're locks. Slaten is a Rule 5 who has had an excellent spring, so he's on. That leaves two spots. Weissert has had a good spring and has an obvious ML pitch, so I'll pencil him in the 7 spot.
The last man is a bit more interesting. Mata, if healthy, probably would have had the spot as he's out of options, and Criswell would go to AAA. But he's injured (again) and hasn't pitched this spring, I think. (I'm a bit relieved about that, actually.) But if Criswell gets the starting slot, Whitlock is likely to go into the bullpen, making the rest of this moot. But let's assume Criswell does not get it and goes to AAA.
On the 40 man are:
Chris Murphy (LHP)
Brandon Walter (LHP)
Joe Jacques (LHP)
Zack Kelly
Cooper Criswell
NRIs: Joely Rodriguez (LHP), Hagenman, Booser (LHP), etc. Leutge.
I'm not sure who gets it. I think you probably want Criswell, Murphy and Walter stretched out in AAA. But maybe you start the season (road trip) with an already stretched out Criswell as the #6/swing guy? Even though Winckowski is stretched out enough for that role.LHP options would be Murphy/Rodriguez/Letuge with Walter and Jacques more distant seconds, and maybe Booser (but his MiL numbers aren't great.)
On pure talent, Murphy's probably the best, followed maybe by Kelly, who has had a terrible spring and may? be re-injured or something, given his few innings? And Letuge, with his age and bad last year putting an asterisk on his experience. If not Kelly, Rodriguez. . .who hasn't been great.
It's a tough question - but maybe someone separates themselves in their next couple of appearances.
Likely to start the season on the IL: Mata, Giolito, Wyatt Mills, Liam Hendricks.
Note: Giolito and Hendricks are both on the 40 man and should spend the season on the 60 day IL.
(Edited to add Letuge per @Cassvt2023)
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Where is Luetge in your bullpen pecking order @Rovin Romine ? He has also had some ML experience and success. i think he is better than Jacques and could take his 40 man roster spot.
Is Martin likely to break camp with the team- he hasn’t pitched yet. Given how much he’s pitched, how well he’s pitched, and the fact that he was given a ML deal- I think Criswell has a decent chance at making the club, especially to start the season, when as you point out- a long man could be valuable.
The last spot could come down to whether they feel the need for another lefty or not. But an uninspiring list- Booser seems like the kind of guy who used to make the club off of a decent spring and then disappear. Maybe Joely gets the not?
The last spot could come down to whether they feel the need for another lefty or not. But an uninspiring list- Booser seems like the kind of guy who used to make the club off of a decent spring and then disappear. Maybe Joely gets the not?
In many situations I prefer to sort of scrum guys together rather than insist on a strict number order. I don't really know what to make of Leutge, Rodriguez, Criswell, or Hagenman. I only really put Weissart in there because he has a taste of ML experience, has a real lights-out pitch, and has had a good ST.
Complicating all this is the Breslow/Bailey factor. It looks like they know what they're doing thusfar, so maybe they see something lights-out in one of those guys, but are having them work on something in ST. Do they think they can unlock Rodriguez and just want to take him slow in ST? Do they think Criswell's stuff translates to the pen, or do the orgs overall needs shift him to start at Worcester?
Leutge is in that same box for me. He's older, but has had more MLB success than any of the others (by far.) Check out his results per pitch: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/lucas-luetge-476595?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb His breaking stuff remains a weapon, but his fastball and cutter were epicly destroyed last year. And yet. . .his pitch mix changed. Why? Will they change it back? How did his slider look in ST compared to earlier data? Have they had him working on using his fastball? If so, his ST looks fantastic compared to last year, results wise. But maybe it's even slower and he's getting lucky in a SSS and living on his sweeper. I really haven't followed him closely enough to know.
So - a big question mark for me, but maybe not for Bailey. But you're right to point him out and I certainly should have included him in the possible LHP scrum.
Also, Liam Hendricks is on the 40 man, so when he hits the 60 day IL, they'll be able to add anyone they choose. It will probably be someone like Rodriguez or Leutge, whom they can just DFA, rather than someone already in the org but not on the 40.
He threw live batting practice yesterday and said he "felt great." Considering a reliever like him should only need 2-3 outings to be ready for the season and they've got 8 spring games left, it seems like he should be on track to start the season on the roster.
Luetge went final two innings today against Braves. 2IP, 1 H , 0 BB, 3 K. In other split squad game, Jacques went .1 IP 1 H , 1 BB, 1 ER.
Luetge and Joely both have opt outs, right?
I think the last spot firstly depends on whether they want another long man (I'd have assumed Murphy, but Criswell's gotten more innings this spring) or if they want all potential starters stretched out in AAA.
After that, Luetge, Rodriguez, Hagenman, Booser, Benitez and Guerrero have all made strong cases for themselves, but obviously the former two are the only ones we're in danger of losing. Seems likely whoever takes it will be sent down at least temporarily whenever Mata is ready to make an appearance. I haven't really noticed Booser, but apparently Cora was talking him up today.
Didn't realize Hendriks was still on the 40 man, that's nice additional flexibility but I think in practice it just means Jacques gets to be employed a little longer
I think the last spot firstly depends on whether they want another long man (I'd have assumed Murphy, but Criswell's gotten more innings this spring) or if they want all potential starters stretched out in AAA.
After that, Luetge, Rodriguez, Hagenman, Booser, Benitez and Guerrero have all made strong cases for themselves, but obviously the former two are the only ones we're in danger of losing. Seems likely whoever takes it will be sent down at least temporarily whenever Mata is ready to make an appearance. I haven't really noticed Booser, but apparently Cora was talking him up today.
Didn't realize Hendriks was still on the 40 man, that's nice additional flexibility but I think in practice it just means Jacques gets to be employed a little longer
On this stuff I really don't try to read tea-leaves with Cora. He's usually reliable when defining someone's role as a final thing (e.g., Winckowski), but I think his first concern is what the players think of what he's saying, and his second concern is to sort of generally plug the team. He'll be blowing a lot of smoke how everyone is wonderful, but I'm pretty sure they've already narrowed some things down internally, barring something weird over the remaining 8 games in spring training.
I can squint and see that this rotation at least has some potential. Bello, of course, has ace potential if he can realize it eventually. Maybe this year is a huge step forward in his development. Certainly that's not totally unrealistic. Pivetta can be solid. I actually like Crawford and think he's underrated. He should be good this year. Houck and Whitlock have ability, but neither has shown to be dependable and durable in starting roles. So big concerns there for me. But the *talent* is there for both of them to be good.
So if I take a seriously optimistic view I can see Bello as a legit #1, Pivetta as a solid professional starting pitcher, Crawford as the guy who surprises people with a really good year, and Houck and Whitlock finally stepping up and being legit MLB starting pitchers. If all that happens, the rotation could actually be pretty good.
The problem is that that's a lot of IFs. And it also depends on good health, because the depth behind them is really not good at all. If the Sox have to deal with significant starting pitching injuries (which I'm sure will happen), then this team could get shelled all season long.
I agree with this assessment, which sadly underscores the loss of an effective Giolito - which would have pushed Whitlock into the bullpen, making it that much the stronger.
And yes, there's a wide range of outcomes here overall. If we're lucky, there's enough depth in Bello-Pivetta-Crawford-Houck-Whitlock-Criswell to pick up some wins on the back end against other teams # 3, 4 and 5s.
And in parallel from the lineup thread:
It's interesting to forecast a best case scenario to the trade deadline: everybody's been healthy and performing well and the team's in contention, but Houck and Whitlock are already at career highs in innings, do you need to buy in anticipation of them falling off?
Cause even viewed optimistically I'm not sure how this staff gets through the last two months of the season. If we still had Giolito you could envision a 2021 parallel, where Richards and Perez got demotions to the pen in August and it worked out alright cause Eo, Erod and Pivetta were all making every start. But who's gonna be that third guy this year, Crawford?
Speaking of Kutter, he's been MIA for 9 days now, somebody tell me not to panic please.
Cause even viewed optimistically I'm not sure how this staff gets through the last two months of the season. If we still had Giolito you could envision a 2021 parallel, where Richards and Perez got demotions to the pen in August and it worked out alright cause Eo, Erod and Pivetta were all making every start. But who's gonna be that third guy this year, Crawford?
Speaking of Kutter, he's been MIA for 9 days now, somebody tell me not to panic please.
I'd be curious to see you put numbers to your thesis and project Hock/Whitlock's expected innings. Don't forget to account for MiL appearances and non-repeatable freak injuries.
Moving this over from the other thread cause it seems like the better home for it.
In a way though, I hope they all do hit that wall cause it would mean they've solved the far greater problem: they can't get through the fifth inning and all of them are atrocious the third time through the order. That's something I don't think can be explained away by health or endurance, and it's been killing us.
I totally get and appreciate Houck being a victim of circumstance last year. My concern for this year is the same that it was then: not that he can't get to 30 starts eventually, but that he's starting from a long ways off and I worry that he's going to fall off hard late this season.
In a way though, I hope they all do hit that wall cause it would mean they've solved the far greater problem: they can't get through the fifth inning and all of them are atrocious the third time through the order. That's something I don't think can be explained away by health or endurance, and it's been killing us.
What's happened with Crawford? I haven't followed spring training very well. Had no idea he's been MIA. What's going on?
Brutal. I'm pretty bullish on him, so this is disappointing. He's not a free agent till 2030, though, so lots of time for him to get healthy and to figure things out, I suppose.
The quiet is the concerning part. No mentions of anything anywhere.
Now Murphy too? Dammit.
View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1769715066327179661
Jacques, Hagenman, Booser and Benitez all out of the bullpen equation for now.
Jacques, Hagenman, Booser and Benitez all out of the bullpen equation for now.