2024 Rotation and Bullpen
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
Fair! But I was thinking the end of arbitration, to be honest, because the first year or two or three of arbitration are way cheaper and therefore still really, really good value for the team. This is what the top of the heap for last year's arb pool looked like. Notice how all those guys at the top are in year 3 or year 4 of their arbitration?
Go back to year 1 of Soto's arbitration and you'll find Soto getting paid 8.5 million. Year 2? 17 million? Year 3? 23 million. Rafael Devers was just 4.5 million in his first arb year.
My point being that each of those years are still HUGE surplus values to the team if the player (1) continue their excellence and (2) stays healthy. Which Duran seems likely to do. That's why these guys generally speaking don't get traded until the last of their arb years. They're just too valuable.
I apologize for people hoping for bullpen/rotation discussion, this has been a HUGE digression. I will suggest this discussion move to another thread.
Is that right? 42 pitches for five innings? It appears to be 18 total batters so less than three pitches per batter. Talk about efficiency.
The rotation had been progressively getting worse, but the bullpen just went from being good to an absolute dumpster fire. The bullpen had an ERA below 3.60 in each of the first three months, and they're sporting a 7.19 ERA since the ASB. Opposing batters are hitting .314/.382/.566 against the bullpen since the Break.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=BOS&year=2024
I watched the highlights from last night and the hits Garcia gave up were all middle-middle. They're collectively much better than their last three weeks. Just gotta work through it.
Best offense, worst pitching and defense. And didnt totally turn to shit in the standings.
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I was at this game. Yes — the pitch count was crazy low, because Priester threw strikes, and Lehigh Valley was very aggressive and making a lot of contact. Worcester also played pretty good defense, so there were a lot of fast innings. Much of the contact was good (lazy flies, pop ups, ground balls), but there were some loud outs and a few balls caught on the track or up against the wall. He escaped unscathed, but it felt like he was a little bit lucky. I was shocked he didn’t come out for the sixth with that pitch count, though.
So, so long ago. Four long agonizing days ago, in fact. Tuesday vs Texas: 3.2 shutout innings from Booser, Sims, Horn, and Jansen.
I don't love Crawford walking the first two of the sixth, but again Cora playing imaginary bullpen games with our team. Taking your starter out at 75 pitches before he gets his 18th out needs to be the unusual exception and not the always and automatic. Baseball will bounce back whether Manfred mandates it or not, but analytics department isn't doing its job if they are telling Cora that is the right move, and Cora isn't doing his job if he is freelancing on a hunch instead of following the analytics department telling him that is better winning for Crawford to stay in the game and face Gunner.
The problem is when Crawford goes bad, he goes bad quickly. It's been happening all season. He's cruising along and then suddenly he loses control and suddenly the bases are loaded and two runs are already in. Pitch count is seemingly irrelevant to it. If Cora leaves him in to completely fall apart and have the game get away (which he has done at least a couple times this year), we're criticizing him for not having someone ready to come out of the pen. He can't win.
He's committed to being more aggressive with his hook. It's playoff-mode managing. If the team is going to have a chance at the wildcard, they can't really afford too many more games in which showing patience with the starters burns him.
Are you actually watching the games? Crawford lost it. Pulling him was exactly the right move.
I think the wrong move was Horn…. But there’s not really any better options not named Kenley
Yes, I'm actually watching the games, and yes I have walked back to back hitters to start an inning in professional baseball and gotten out of it without allowing a run. And yes, I think Pedro should have come out, 8th and 9th innings should be rarities for starters, and 7th innings completely dependent on the stars lining up properly.
Covering the 16th, 17th, 18th out of a 27 out ballgame is an area that MLB organizations are mishandling and history will not be kind to, after the Rays copy catting started (and yes, Snell should have faced Mookie).
What did Crawford lose? And why do you think it was lost and not just misplaced?
A competent MLB pitcher who has thrown great for five innings should be able to correct himself from a hiccup (especially with a guru pitching coach in his corner) and execute additional pitches in the sixth inning with the strategic team goal of completing it.
I think learning how to work through these situations successfully is crucial to A) the strategic development of the starters, B) avoiding overuse of overtaxed good relievers or relying on second tier relievers to perform better than your starters, and C) to individually give up fewer runs in a specific game and increase our chances of winning a specific game.
Cora has gotten gun shy for leaving in a starter, as well as for leaving in a competent reliever performing well through his first 2-3 outs, and we don't currently have Cash's "stable of them" to back that flaw up.
As we established, I was watching. I don't think that he lost it. Do we have to be better than Crawford at pitching and Cora at managing to speak here? Tough crowd.
Still not sure what "lost it" is, and the pictures don't really help lock it in or illustrate that his next ten pitches would not have been like his first 65. If Crawford catches an accurate throw from shortstop and the situation is two outs and runner on 3rd in a one run game do you still pull him?
Again, speaking of trends and bullpen allocation, I think our chances of winning that game improved if Cutter faced Gunner, as well as being more sound long term strategy to continue to perform as a pitching staff.
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Bello pitched 6 innings last night, despite giving up a home run and a single in the sixth. Bello also pitched 6 in his previous start. Cora deals with these things game by game, starter by starter.
From today's WooSox game story, "In his [Liam Hendriks'] first outing on Sunday, the 35-year-old threw 11 pitches (9 strikes) in a perfect fifth inning on Sunday [sic]."
During the NESN broadcast today Merloni talked a lot during that inning that Crawford had lost command and his stuff didn't look the same as in the previous inning, and how it was similar to his last start where the same thing happened in the 6th inning even after his first 5 innings were perfect.
Lou's take was 100% scouting/observation based, zero to do with analytics or stats or numbers of any kind.
Sure sounded like he had discussed this with someone on the team after Crawford's last start.
He was reportedly throwing around 95.
Man, if he's coming back soon, and he's anywhere as good as he used to be... Just a massive boon to our bullpen that will hopefully have even more help on the way with Slaten and Booser returning in the next few weeks.
There was a really good McCaffrey/Sarris collab about pitch usage and adjustments today:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5704202/2024/08/20/red-sox-pitching-strategy-league-adjustments?source=user-shared-article
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5704202/2024/08/20/red-sox-pitching-strategy-league-adjustments?source=user-shared-article
The rotation has started to look better other than Pivetta… I’m puzzled by Criswell’s impressive performance and equally puzzled by Pivetta’s.
Bello and Houck still look good enough as of today to go toe to toe with any AL top 2 but I’m not confident- seemingly like Cora, despite the numbers- in Criswell…. And definitely not comfortable with Pivetta now, like I was 2 months ago. Any playoff success is going to be on Cora’s bullpen usage, as opposed to just knowing you’ve got a great starter lined up for games 3 and 4 in a series….
Bello and Houck still look good enough as of today to go toe to toe with any AL top 2 but I’m not confident- seemingly like Cora, despite the numbers- in Criswell…. And definitely not comfortable with Pivetta now, like I was 2 months ago. Any playoff success is going to be on Cora’s bullpen usage, as opposed to just knowing you’ve got a great starter lined up for games 3 and 4 in a series….
I have not looked into the actual numbers, so this is a totally uniformed opinion. The Red Sox starters in the Houston series, Houck especially, seemed to be throwing more fastballs. Houck was really burying the sinker inside on right handers.
Outside of game 1, the bullpen was actually nails in this series. The Alvarez v. Bernardino at bat was terrifying in real time, it was a super high leverage spot. Credit to Bernie for coming through after being sent down last week. Even Garcia was getting outs.
It is late August and the roster is what it is at this point. I would be interested to see if Priester gets a call up for a spot start or a bulk bullpen role.
Outside of game 1, the bullpen was actually nails in this series. The Alvarez v. Bernardino at bat was terrifying in real time, it was a super high leverage spot. Credit to Bernie for coming through after being sent down last week. Even Garcia was getting outs.
It is late August and the roster is what it is at this point. I would be interested to see if Priester gets a call up for a spot start or a bulk bullpen role.
Overall, the rotation has been fine this year. It's 6th in the AL in ERA, 8th in FIP, and 4th in xFIP. Pivetta has been bad since the break, but he was a good 4-5 starter before that. Criswell has been moved around because he has options, and he's had some ups and downs, but he's pretty much been the same. Houck's pitched like a true #1. Bello had a rough patch from mid-May through June, but he's been good since then. Crawford had a rough three week patch starting in late July, but he seems to be coming out of that now. Together, they're a good young middle of the rotation.
It's the relief pitching that has been killing them.
Since the break Houck has been ramping up the sinker and throwing fewer splitters (except the Texas game on the 14th for some reason).
His velocity has also been trending up this month and his he had his fastest average velo of the season on his splitter in Houston (94.8).
His velocity has also been trending up this month and his he had his fastest average velo of the season on his splitter in Houston (94.8).
The story was great. Thanks for posting. I know it's usually tongue-in-cheek, but there's no way that Bailey's coaching success can be distilled to just a plan to scrap a pitch or rely on a single pitch. At least not with starters. Executing a mid-season adjustment, though, is more like turning a cruise ship than pulling a U-turn. Maybe the results of counter-adjusting are starting to show.
Except for Hendriks, Hill, and Story, probably in that order. I would bet that Hendriks and Hill join the team before Sep 1.
I suppose we might get a better sense tomorrow, but I'm not convinced Hill has anything left.
Bello has rebounded nicely and is doing a good job. Last 7 games have all been against pretty good or excellent teams: KC, LAD, NYY, Sea, KC, Tex, and Bal. Over those 7 games: 40.1 ip, 3.57 era, 1.23 whip, 8.5 k/9
Yup. Also Houck.
First 16 starts: 6.5 IP/S, 2.22 FIP.
Next 6 starts: 5.1 IP/S, 5.94 FIP.
Last 3 starts: 6 IP/S, 4.02 FIP.
So he's not back to dealing like he was in the first half, but he's stabilized.
We just need Crawford to make the same adjustment and we're dangerous.
Rich Hill, soon to be addition ( my words) to the big club, threw 28 pitches over 2 IP for Worcester, walking 1, striking out 2, and giving no hits or runs. Anybody at the game?
I’m curious as well. They’ll need some bulk innings from someone for the (quasi-)doubleheader this Wednesday, and that date would line up with 4 days rest for Hill, especially if they want to get him on the roster by 9/1.
The "quasi-doubleheader" is Monday, if you're referring to completing the suspended game and then playing the scheduled one. He's not going to be ready for that. Also, I don't think the timeline is necessarily that they want Hill up by 9/1. If he's going to be a bulk guy or starter, throwing only 28 pitches/2 innings last night suggests he is likely going to need 2-3 more outings before he's ramped up. That takes him beyond September 1.
Count me surprised he didn't go deeper last night. His audition was reportedly 100 pitches. If he could handle that, it would seem like he's capable of going a bit more than 30 pitches in his first game.
I think they do want him for Monday and that’s why only 28 pitches easier to turn him around on a short rest for 5 or 6 and 85 pitches on Monday when he basically only threw a relief stint 3 days earlier.
85 pitches? That seems really high for a guy who is basically in the first weeks of spring training. I get that he threw 100 pitches in front of scouts, but that’s not really that close to a live game situation, is it? I’d expect if he gets called up now, he would be at about 40-50 pitches. He needs some time to ramp up.
I wouldn't be surprised to see him be the 27th man for the doubleheader Monday and then go back to Worcester for a while.
I don't think they can do that with him. He's not on the 40-man which is how he can be in Worcester in the first place. To bring him up even with the 27th man rules, he'd need to be added to the 40-man. And once he's on the 40-man, he can't be removed without a DFA. If he's on the 40-man, he can't be sent to Worcester because he doesn't have options. Basically, once he's up, he's up unless he's injured or they cut him.
Imagine they’d just add Weissert or Horn for Monday. If / when Hendriks and Hill are ready, they can replace Shugart and Joely on the 40, prob?
Good question and the answer is yes, but that player can not be used in the conclusion of the suspended game.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/27th-man