2024 Rotation and Bullpen

jwbasham84

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I think Pivetta was frustrated and showing it after the second home run. I think Cora went out to calm him down and give him a pep talk like a good manager should. Also have Pivetta time to reset and refocus. Which he seemed to do pretty well from that point on...
 

nvalvo

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I think Pivetta was frustrated and showing it after the second home run. I think Cora went out to calm him down and give him a pep talk like a good manager should. Also have Pivetta time to reset and refocus. Which he seemed to do pretty well from that point on...
This seems more in character for Cora, and what I agree was likely happening on that mound.
 

jwbasham84

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It would have been nice to see Criswell step in last night and competently handle a few innings. We could have avoided using both Sims and Garcia. However, if Martin is going to be back Wednesday then those guys could pitch tonight in high leverage and we could have Martin and Jansen for Wednesday. Really nice to see multiple options available in the bullpen.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It would have been nice to see Criswell step in last night and competently handle a few innings. We could have avoided using both Sims and Garcia. However, if Martin is going to be back Wednesday then those guys could pitch tonight in high leverage and we could have Martin and Jansen for Wednesday. Really nice to see multiple options available in the bullpen.
Martin may be back Wednesday, but I'm not sure it's wise to rely on him to be his regular shutdown self the very first time out after an IL stint. Ideally if he gets into the game Wednesday, it'll be in a lower leverage situation so he can ease himself back. Also ideally, neither Sims or Garcia (or Jansen for that matter) is needed tonight.
 

joe dokes

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It would have been nice to see Criswell step in last night and competently handle a few innings. We could have avoided using both Sims and Garcia. However, if Martin is going to be back Wednesday then those guys could pitch tonight in high leverage and we could have Martin and Jansen for Wednesday. Really nice to see multiple options available in the bullpen.
I suggested in the game thread that with an 8-2 lead and several other options in case he failed, Cora wanted to see how Criswell would bounce back after a 2-inning appearance and one day of rest. He went 1 inning, then 3 against NYY and Sea last week with a day in between, but otherwise, this is a new role for him.
 

iddoc

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Performance-wise, he deserved to stay in the rotation, and that is where he should have stayed to let the others skip a turn. Houck and Crawford have been terrible lately, it would seem that they are hitting the wall that many here predicted.
 

Fishy1

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Unsurprisingly, Bailey has already gone to work on Paxton. The below is his pitch mix according to Statcast. Paxton has been throwing 50% four seamers for most of the year, in keeping with his career, despite a four seamer that was 2 mph slower than in the past.

Bailey apparently has convinced him to throw WAY fewer four-seamers. Now he's throwing predominantly knuckle curves, along with way more sinkers than in the past. Four seamer is still there, but the change-up has basically been scrapped. Which surprises me, it was fairly successful this year, although he had trouble locating it.

Lot of reason to be optimistic here. He gave up some very loud outs last night, but on the whole exactly the sort of solid outing they've needed from their starters.

86733
 

joe dokes

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Unsurprisingly, Bailey has already gone to work on Paxton. The below is his pitch mix according to Statcast. Paxton has been throwing 50% four seamers for most of the year, in keeping with his career, despite a four seamer that was 2 mph slower than in the past.

Bailey apparently has convinced him to throw WAY fewer four-seamers. Now he's throwing predominantly knuckle curves, along with way more sinkers than in the past. Four seamer is still there, but the change-up has basically been scrapped. Which surprises me, it was fairly successful this year, although he had trouble locating it.

Lot of reason to be optimistic here. He gave up some very loud outs last night, but on the whole exactly the sort of solid outing they've needed from their starters.

View attachment 86733
Thanks for posting that. (answers a question that a few asked during the game.)
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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That was a shitty loss but I guess it was expected- Friday night Fenway Flops….
But Houck looked good again and hopefully it’s a sign he’s past his poor performance. In retrospect I wish that Cora had left him in 82 pitches after 6…. But I get it. Inching closer to dangerous innings territory (although I don’t think it’s a one-size fits all metric) and pull him after 6 good innings for leaving feeling good
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The pitching was awesome in April, good in May, below average since- and the obvious problem is the massive # of homers given up.

March - Apr: 22 HR / 329 SLG
May: 29 HR / 384 SLG
June: 32 HR / 412 SLG
July: 38 HR / 460 SLG
Aug: 13 HR / 498 SLG (entering tonight)

The staff seemed well prepared to start the season, but haven’t adjusted or have been figured out a bit.

Perhaps their pitching patterns have gotten too predictable?
 

HfxBob

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It might have something to do with the weather, as the performance of the offense seems a direct inverse.
Probably right.

Sox OPS by month

Mar/Apr: 739
May: 683
June: 808
July: 839
August: 880
MLB OPS by month

Mar/Apr: 699
May: 695
June: 721
July: 735
August: 738

For whatever reason, the beneficial effects of the weather on hitters seem to have been magnified exponentially in Red Sox games.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I’m sure it’s mostly the league catching up. The word was out pretty quickly that the starters weren’t throwing certain pitches.
Remove that potential and you have less pitches to expect. I was assuming that they would begin to add more 4-seamers into the mix but haven’t really seen that.
I’m sure there’s some exhaustion but I suspect it’s more knowing what’s coming as opposed to early in the season.
 

Fishy1

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I’m sure it’s mostly the league catching up. The word was out pretty quickly that the starters weren’t throwing certain pitches.
Remove that potential and you have less pitches to expect. I was assuming that they would begin to add more 4-seamers into the mix but haven’t really seen that.
I’m sure there’s some exhaustion but I suspect it’s more knowing what’s coming as opposed to early in the season.
Mostly seems like it's cutters and fastballs getting crushed, even though they're throwing fewer of them.

Crawford's rolling xWOBA looks bad, for example. Takes a turn on July 36th and we really haven't seen it improve. If anything, it's gotten worse.

87008

His three most-thrown pitches are getting crushed.

87011

He's still throwing a lot of four seamers and cutters -- more cutters then last season. The sweeper has replaced the knucklecurve, and the split finger is still getting thrown less than a tenth of the time. It's been really effective, probably in part because it's such a surprise. Still, I wonder if they try to throw it more? Like if he stopped throwing knucklecurves altogether and just threw the splitter... A 42% whiff percentage seems pretty good.
 

Attachments

HfxBob

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I’m sure it’s mostly the league catching up. The word was out pretty quickly that the starters weren’t throwing certain pitches.
Indeed. There were a ton of stories about it. Other teams didn't even have to do a deep dive into the pitch data, all they had to was follow Boston media and bloggers...
 

Fishy1

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We can look at the data too. Houck has eliminated the four seamer, but he's still otherwise throwing a very similar pitch mix. He's traded four seamers for splitters, but otherwise the sweeper/sinker mix looks very similar to last year's slider/sinker mix. So less fastballs, but his pitch mix isn't radically different. Which is to say it's not exactly surprising hitters have adjusted.
 

joe dokes

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I have a theory on Pivetta, but I'm not too good at manipulating the data to see if it works. Here goes...

He started hot. Coverage at the time had him throwing a lot more sweepers (which, IIRC, he hadn't used much previously), with good results. Then his elbow got sore after two starts. I have wondered since then if it was connected to sweeper use, whether he's moved away from it some because of that and, as a result, if he's back to the pitcher he's always been -- occasionally great, often good , with the remainder split between meh and lousy. To my eye, anyway, the sweepers I've noticed have not been sharp or regularly competitive (enticing to swing at) pitches. But I'm not sure how to determine his recent pitch mixes.
 

joe dokes

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Thanks. So a shitload more 4-seamers (there was much early fanfare over him going away from that). And, after an early decrease (which is what I think I noticed and probably got me on this train of thought), a general increase in sweepers, but with notable disappearances along the way.
 

Fishy1

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I have a theory on Pivetta, but I'm not too good at manipulating the data to see if it works. Here goes...

He started hot. Coverage at the time had him throwing a lot more sweepers (which, IIRC, he hadn't used much previously), with good results. Then his elbow got sore after two starts. I have wondered since then if it was connected to sweeper use, whether he's moved away from it some because of that and, as a result, if he's back to the pitcher he's always been -- occasionally great, often good , with the remainder split between meh and lousy. To my eye, anyway, the sweepers I've noticed have not been sharp or regularly competitive (enticing to swing at) pitches. But I'm not sure how to determine his recent pitch mixes.
I had the same theory, thanks for pulling the actual data @simplicio. Don't think there's any doubt that the sweeper puts outsized pressure on some guy's elbows, also not surprised to see he's still throwing a ton of them given how good it's been for him.

Thanks. So a shitload more 4-seamers (there was much early fanfare over him going away from that). And, after an early decrease (which is what I think I noticed and probably got me on this train of thought), a general increase in sweepers, but with notable disappearances along the way.
I think the pitch mix is probably also highly dependent on the lineups he's facing,
 

joe dokes

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I had the same theory, thanks for pulling the actual data @simplicio. Don't think there's any doubt that the sweeper puts outsized pressure on some guy's elbows, also not surprised to see he's still throwing a ton of them given how good it's been for him.



I think the pitch mix is probably also highly dependent on the lineups he's facing,
I wonder if the inconsistent usage is partly a "how am I feeling today?" thing.
I'm sure it is lineup dependent, and the chart doesn't indicate success, but that's additional work for another time.
 

Fishy1

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I wonder if the inconsistent usage is partly a "how am I feeling today?" thing.
I'm sure it is lineup dependent, and the chart doesn't indicate success, but that's additional work for another time.
Yeah, the team came to Whitlock and Giolito and everybody and was like "throw a sweeper!" and pretty much immediately two of their arms fell off. It makes sense to be super careful with these guys.
 

joe dokes

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Yeah, the team came to Whitlock and Giolito and everybody and was like "throw a sweeper!" and pretty much immediately two of their arms fell off. It makes sense to be super careful with these guys.
Raises a philosophical question: What if the sweeper makes 8 pitchers significantly more effective for every two careers it ends or interrupts (the numbers are invented)?
 

Fishy1

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Raises a philosophical question: What if the sweeper makes 8 pitchers significantly more effective for every two careers it ends or interrupts (the numbers are invented)?
Don't try to sneak a trolley problem into this bullpen thread. I had enough trolley problems for my life in my undergraduate degree
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Sounds pretty official that Paxton is done., and honestly it was a terrible move.... unless it was as "Starting Pitcher B" behind another Starting Pitcher addition, but it wasn't.....
So where does that leave the rotation?
Bello has started to look better- still gets hit hard it seems after the 5th.
Ditto for Crawford after last night.
Houck seems like he's starting to look better too.
But none of those guys right now are looking like they're going to give you 7 innings and give up less than 3 runs.
I'm guessing Pivetta will make his next start and hopefully it's just shaking off a tired arm and he can go on one of his Ace-like streaks.
Criswell should be back but nobody should just assume he'll be feeling fine. Covid seems to hit everyone differently and can really knock people on their butts for a month or so until they're back up to full strength.
I'm liking what Winckowski is doing right now.

So I think they have the tools to do this but Cora is going to have to let guys push themselves past 80 pitches if they're still throwing well but also try to not squeeze 3 innings out of the dreks of the pen. I still think they have a team that can win a playoff series or two on the road which would be a great accomplishment for this season.

I'd go with Winckowski as the number 5 from here on out. Hope that Pivetta and the other three can get it together. Casas comes back up and the team can bludgeon the opposition. It's really all about what they can do for now unless I'm missing something.
 

koufax37

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Getting pretty frustrating how Cora uses his relievers, and as a result we need five guys to be on to win a game.

I think it will prove pretty clear looking back on the evolution of the game that getting your starter through 18 outs, and while exceptions to that happen, the current trend of not trying to put outs 15-18 on the shoulders of the starter is a misallocation of pitching resources that both reduces chances of winning and wears down a bullpen.

But today we got 20 out of Houck, so while our worn down turn for the worse bullpen relates, we needed to get the final seven.

If Kenley is down today, why is Martin going to throw four pitches and leave? Same thoughts on pulling Crawford yesterday. 16 good and then four not so great, but at 67 pitches he was still the best chance to get one of the remaining 11 outs and not rely on this bullpen to put together four successful innings in a row.

Not talking about single game patterns, but the reliance on a quick hook on starters followed by quick hooks on relievers is both wearing out our guys and showing hitting on 17 too often when we don't have the cards to back it up. Maybe with Slaten and Martin and Hendrick's ahead of Kenley things will brighten, but right now always expecting five different guys to have a good day when the guy already doing okay could get some more outs is starting to wear thin.
 

DeadlySplitter

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The pitching overall directly cost them a game this series. Crawford fell apart in the 6th, Booser fell apart, cascading to making Jansen unavailable today, it's "too soon" for Martin to get up & down twice in an outing and there's no one else reliable.

Everything was hunky dory at the ASB and it's like most of them forgot how to pitch. Maybe Bailey has an offseason program in mind to keep the fatigue from coming in August 2025.
 

simplicio

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Getting pretty frustrating how Cora uses his relievers, and as a result we need five guys to be on to win a game.

I think it will prove pretty clear looking back on the evolution of the game that getting your starter through 18 outs, and while exceptions to that happen, the current trend of not trying to put outs 15-18 on the shoulders of the starter is a misallocation of pitching resources that both reduces chances of winning and wears down a bullpen.

But today we got 20 out of Houck, so while our worn down turn for the worse bullpen relates, we needed to get the final seven.

If Kenley is down today, why is Martin going to throw four pitches and leave? Same thoughts on pulling Crawford yesterday. 16 good and then four not so great, but at 67 pitches he was still the best chance to get one of the remaining 11 outs and not rely on this bullpen to put together four successful innings in a row.

Not talking about single game patterns, but the reliance on a quick hook on starters followed by quick hooks on relievers is both wearing out our guys and showing hitting on 17 too often when we don't have the cards to back it up. Maybe with Slaten and Martin and Hendrick's ahead of Kenley things will brighten, but right now always expecting five different guys to have a good day when the guy already doing okay could get some more outs is starting to wear thin.
Feels like you're forgetting how quickly some of our starters can come apart. Cora has to have a quick hook for some of these guys, and on top of that he's trying to shepherd them through the rest of the season way above previous innings totals and down a starter again.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Getting pretty frustrating how Cora uses his relievers, and as a result we need five guys to be on to win a game.

I think it will prove pretty clear looking back on the evolution of the game that getting your starter through 18 outs, and while exceptions to that happen, the current trend of not trying to put outs 15-18 on the shoulders of the starter is a misallocation of pitching resources that both reduces chances of winning and wears down a bullpen.
I have a feeling the Red Sox (and other teams) are managing games like this because the overall major league pitching talent of these teams are not so good. Hitters are better than ever and so few starters are good matchups third time through the order, you get all these starts between 4 and 6 innings.

Bailey redid the pitch mixes of guys like Houck & Crawford, which worked in the first half, but now due to fatigue / league starting to sit on the heavy offspeed mix more and more, it's not working. We might have maxed out these two in particular as #3-4 starters in the end, not #2s.

The pitching development in the minors has been better lately but the top guys have needed TJ, so no impact is coming soon. They will need to externally acquire pieces to support the potential monster lineup.
 

BigSoxFan

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I have a feeling the Red Sox (and other teams) are managing games like this because the overall major league pitching talent of these teams are not so good. Hitters are better than ever and so few starters are good matchups third time through the order, you get all these starts between 4 and 6 innings.

Bailey redid the pitch mixes of guys like Houck & Crawford, which worked in the first half, but now due to fatigue / league starting to sit on the heavy offspeed mix more and more, it's not working. We might have maxed out these two in particular as #3-4 starters in the end, not #2s.

The pitching development in the minors has been better lately but the top guys have needed TJ, so no impact is coming soon. They will need to externally acquire pieces to support the potential monster lineup.
Yup. Every team has pitching injuries but losing Giolito was especially painful for this team since he was, at a minimum, an innings eater. They really need to find some bankable starters this offseason.
 

soxhop411

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Yup. Every team has pitching injuries but losing Giolito was especially painful for this team since he was, at a minimum, an innings eater. They really need to find some bankable starters this offseason.
there is no such thing as the bolded.
Giolito was considered a workhorse and an innings eater until he wasnt (this season)
 

BigSoxFan

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there is no such thing as the bolded.
Giolito was considered a workhorse and an innings eater until he wasnt (this season)
I meant guys who have demonstrated that they can pitch a lot of innings absent some kind of elbow injury, which obviously nobody can predict.
 

Daniel_Son

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https://x.com/tylermilliken_/status/1824098179270513098

"Red Sox bullpen is currently ranked 26th out of 30 in ERA at 4.36. 21st in FIP at 4.11.

In the 2nd half, the Sox bullpen is by far the worst in baseball with a 6.91 ERA and 6.01 FIP. Next on the list is the White Sox at 6.21 and the Twins at 5.51.

No pitching staff has given up homers at a higher rate in the second half at 2.1."

So uh... yeah. Not great, Bob.
 

RS2004foreever

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So I guess I am a little more hopeful about Crawford/Houck after the last two starts. Crawford's numbers are inflated by the Cam Booser experience, and Houck looked better last night.

What this team needs is the equivalent of a Hansel Robles acquisition. He wasn't great but he was really useful in September of '21.
We could use the equivalent in a big way now.
 

E5 Yaz

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I feel some sympathy for Booser, now that we know know he was probably trying to pitch the other day through elbow inflammation. But that's been the issue this year: The bullpen has been a rotating cast of 11th-13th staff guys, most of whom have been overworked.
A guy like Booser, who's overcome so much just to reach this point, pitches through discomfort because his career is always on the line.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What this team needs is the equivalent of a Hansel Robles acquisition. He wasn't great but he was really useful in September of '21.
We could use the equivalent in a big way now.
Well, that equivalent is going to have to be Sims or Garcia. Robles, like them, was a deadline acquisition. Also worth nothing that Robles didn't get off to that great of a start in August before becoming the go-to guy in September. So it's conceivable that anyone on the roster could step up in a Robles-like way for this team, not just an acquisition.
 

koufax37

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I have a feeling the Red Sox (and other teams) are managing games like this because the overall major league pitching talent of these teams are not so good. Hitters are better than ever and so few starters are good matchups third time through the order, you get all these starts between 4 and 6 innings.

Bailey redid the pitch mixes of guys like Houck & Crawford, which worked in the first half, but now due to fatigue / league starting to sit on the heavy offspeed mix more and more, it's not working. We might have maxed out these two in particular as #3-4 starters in the end, not #2s.

The pitching development in the minors has been better lately but the top guys have needed TJ, so no impact is coming soon. They will need to externally acquire pieces to support the potential monster lineup.
So we have the balance of over exposing starters or over exposing relievers. I think the trend of not getting 18 outs from a starter has swung as far as it should, and openers and bullpen games have likely peaked. I think some of the new any-pitch pitching machines (which I had spent years saying "why doesn't some engineering team at MIT build that for the Red Sox so they go hit Rivera cutters for ten minutes before the ninth inning AB) reduces some of the third time through issues.

I have also seen (especially Bello and Kelly) most damage being done on poorly executed pitches, not bad pitch selection or hitters knowing what is coming. I definitely think there is empirical evidence still against over-exposure of starters, and being cautious in the sixth and less daring in the seventh inning while the eighth will remain a once in a blue moon.

But that said, as an adjacent and relevant item, my issue is when a reliever is pitching well already hot and in the game, sometimes we are took quick for the matchup, especially at the change of inning, and sometimes we end up using five relievers when we could have used four, four relievers when we could have used three. I think more of our middle relievers are capable of the equivalent of a four or five out save by the closer.

Clearly both our starters and our bullpen are not performing at their season peak, whether regression to the mean, fatigue, happenstance. But I think that one solution to this (believe it or not) is more 1.2 and 2.0 and even 2.1 inning appearances from middle relievers, and quick hooks carry a price that is starting to weigh down on our group.
 

chrisfont9

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Yup. Every team has pitching injuries but losing Giolito was especially painful for this team since he was, at a minimum, an innings eater. They really need to find some bankable starters this offseason.
Are we allowed to use this thread for offseason pitching options? I don't see another existing thread on the subject, so I'll add some stuff here.

Prime-age FA Targets:
Corbin Burnes
Max Fried
Shane Bieber
Walker Buehler
Jack Flaherty
Blake Snell (player option)
Luis Severino
Freddie Peralta

Older but proven FA targets:
Nathan Eovaldi
Max Scherzer
Justin Verlander
Sean Manaea
Jose Quintana
Michael Wacha
Andrew Heaney
Yusei Kikuchi
Lance Lynn

Trade targets (non-playoff team, '26 FA):
Erick Fedde
Shota Imanaga
...

Not much. There are some exciting '26 FAs but as of now they're mostly allocated to good teams and are unlikely to be traded. I seriously doubt the Cubs would trade Imanaga either.

It will be very much a sellers' market.
 

JBJ_HOF

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The Red Sox are far liker to trade Duran for the best controllable pitcher they can get than to sign any of those pitchers above, especially the 2 or 3 actually good ones.

It's going to come down to how they allocate resources and control, and he is older and closer to free agency. They can still have a very good defensive and dynamic offensive outfield without him when you just swap Anthony into LF. Guessing it will be a tidy transaction, probably 1 for 1.
 

Fishy1

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I would not expect a rookie who was striking out 25% of the time against AA pitching to have a seamless transition and instantly become a 7 win player like Duran. The immediate dropoff would be pretty huge, I would guess.

And there's very little chance we trade Duran for a starting pitcher, even one of the better ones. He's way too valuable and starting pitchers are too volatile.

Thats why they usually go for a couple of good prospects (like Roman or Mayer or Teel)... not one of the very best players in all of major league baseball.
 

Daniel_Son

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I would not expect a rookie who was striking out 25% of the time against AA pitching to have a seamless transition and instantly become a 7 win player like Duran. The immediate dropoff would be pretty huge, I would guess.

And there's very little chance we trade Duran for a starting pitcher, even one of the better ones. He's way too valuable and starting pitchers are too volatile.

Thats why they usually go for a couple of good prospects (like Roman or Mayer or Teel)... not one of the very best players in all of major league baseball.
The counterpoint to this is that there's a chance that 2024 is an outlier and Duran won't come close to replicating this kind of success in the future, so now's the time to cash in and acquire something the team desperately needs (cost-controlled #1/2 starting pitcher).

I don't think penciling Anthony into the lineup for 2025 is the solution, but you could probably resign O'Neil and/or go after someone like Anthony Santander to round out the outfield.
 

Fishy1

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The counterpoint to this is that there's a chance that 2024 is an outlier and Duran won't come close to replicating this kind of success in the future, so now's the time to cash in and acquire something the team desperately needs (cost-controlled #1/2 starting pitcher).

I don't think penciling Anthony into the lineup for 2025 is the solution, but you could probably resign O'Neil and/or go after someone like Anthony Santander to round out the outfield.
I mean, nothing is guaranteed, but an athletic outfielder who's durable and had outstanding peripherals as a hitter for nearly two hundred games in a row, who's worked himself up to becoming a good defender, who steals a ton of bases, who's also cost-controlled for his prime - that kind of player is generally a better bet than ANY pitcher, whose arm could fall off at any moment. Look at all the arms we pined after this past year! Half of them are injured or performing horribly. We need pitching, but we don't need to send our very best player off to get it.

You don't see a guy like him get moved till the very end of his arbitration years because he's incredibly valuable and durable and he's also cheap. Players like him allow you to spend money elsewhere.

If his personality sucks a shitload? Probably not even then, because what moves money is fans in the seats, and what puts fans in the seats is winning.

If it happens, it won't be till arbitration, and then it will be for very good prospects or an up and coming pitcher. Look at what the Juan Soto traded netted SD.
 

JBJ_HOF

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If it happens, it won't be till arbitration, and then it will be for very good prospects or an up and coming pitcher. Look at what the Juan Soto traded netted SD.
Duran is a Super 2 and will start arbitration this winter.