2024 Rotation and Bullpen
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
Tanner Houck
Career pre-2024: 3.86 era, 3.57 fip, 1.23 whip, 9.4 k/9
First 13 games: 1.91 era, 2.22 fip, 0.92 whip, 8.9 k/9, .504 ops, .266 babip, 69% strikes
Last 8 games: 4.50 era, 4.24 fip, 1.48 whip, 6.5 k/9, .730 ops, .307 babip, 63% strikes
His command has gone down. Teams are putting way more balls in play, and are hammering him a lot more. Having a 4.50 era starter isn't the worst thing in the world, but when he's been the "ace", this is a major step down.
Career pre-2024: 3.86 era, 3.57 fip, 1.23 whip, 9.4 k/9
First 13 games: 1.91 era, 2.22 fip, 0.92 whip, 8.9 k/9, .504 ops, .266 babip, 69% strikes
Last 8 games: 4.50 era, 4.24 fip, 1.48 whip, 6.5 k/9, .730 ops, .307 babip, 63% strikes
His command has gone down. Teams are putting way more balls in play, and are hammering him a lot more. Having a 4.50 era starter isn't the worst thing in the world, but when he's been the "ace", this is a major step down.
Could be. Or he could be returning to what his form more normally has been his whole career. Either way, it's not a good development for the Sox as they push for the playoffs the last two months of the season.
Especially with a decimated bullpen. He had been giving the pen a break, now he's more "normal" in that regard.
Well, that explains why Campbell disappointed. It happens. I'll look forward to seeing him in Spring Training 2026.
The bullpen's been Proctored, particularly since Slaten and Martin went down. The starters are now in uncharted waters in terms of innings pitched. We all could see the coming, and a deal or two for a reliever or mid-range starter is only going to improve things marginally.
Add that to an inconsistent offense, and this is who they are ... on the fringes of contention, depending if some key arms can rebound
Rotation:
Houck last 8 games: 4.50 era, 4.24 fip, 1.48 whip, 6.5 k/9
Crawford last 11 games: 4.90 era, 5.82 fip, 1.03 whip, 8.4 k/9
Bello last 11 games: 6.17 era, 4.35 fip, 1.65 whip, 9.1 k/9
Pivetta last 8 games: 5.62 era, 3.75 fip, 1.42 whip, 11.0 k/9
It's a miracle they're still in the playoff hunt.
Houck last 8 games: 4.50 era, 4.24 fip, 1.48 whip, 6.5 k/9
Crawford last 11 games: 4.90 era, 5.82 fip, 1.03 whip, 8.4 k/9
Bello last 11 games: 6.17 era, 4.35 fip, 1.65 whip, 9.1 k/9
Pivetta last 8 games: 5.62 era, 3.75 fip, 1.42 whip, 11.0 k/9
It's a miracle they're still in the playoff hunt.
Crawford really stands out there; he's been awful last two times through but his WHIP compared to the rest of the crew is surprisingly low.
While only Houck's ERA is even remotely OK, only Crawford's FIP is truly awful. FWIW.
The two are related. At least over the last 10 games, I think it's fair to guess that an available Slaten and/or Marting might have resulted in a win or two even as the starters faltered.
5.62 era isn't awful? The major league average ERA is 4.06 - so he's been a run and a half worse than league average. That's really bad.
And Bello (1.65), Houck (1.48), and Pivetta (1.42) have pretty godawful WHIPs.
5.62 ERA is awful.
Houck's ERA (4.50) is the only one that isnt awful. And Crawford's FIP (5.82) is the only one that is awful.
They gave up 20 runs against the Dodgers, 29 runs against the Rockies & 26 runs against the Yankees in 3 game series. It feels like runners are all over the bases and the ball is being hit really hard. Not getting beat by lucky hits. It felt like the Yankees were constantly hitting out toward or off the wall.
I think the staff is totally gassed. We need to some new arms to eat up innings or this team could fall through the escape hatch very fast. If the next 9 games against Seattle, Texas and KC look similiar to the last 9 games, we will be pretty much done I think. I agree that a couple of those losses could have easily been wins. But, even though it would have felt better to win those, the problems remain either way. They are getting lit up. Hoping to go at least 5-4 and buy some more time for players to return or moves to be made. They are definately in it, but if they end up slipping back a few games out of the last WC, I think the team fades out pretty fast after that.
He's been bad, but this also might be one of those demotions that's basically an IL stint. They can't legitimately put him on the list, so send him out and let his arm rest
At this point, this does not appear to be a GFIN type of year, in large part because the pitching staff is on its knees with a combination of injuries and regression/exhaustion. The Yorke-for-Priester trade is fine, but unlikely to save the day right now. I do wonder if, development-wise, Priester would be better off in the majors working with Bailey. The pitching development out of Worcester has been less than inspiring, and the major league bullpen is in rather desperate shape right now anyway.
I don’t think anyone expects (or wants) it to be a GFIN year, but Breslow is doing a nice job working at the margins with a bunch of smaller upgrades in the early going.
This approach may be a kind of hedge against missing out entirely if/when the more impactful moves don’t come together tonight or tomorrow, which is probably a better approach than Bloom’s the last couple years. (In fact, he said as much re the Paxton deal.)
But if not, why are we not selling the rentals? This is just a more upbeat version of a Chaim deadline right now.
Go or don't go, but some stuff around the edges, while good and important, can't be the only thing.
Weissert finally gets a break, Wingenter up (guessing temporarily).
****
Starting Rotation:
Bullpen:
****
- Bold is the opening day roster.
- Red indicates no longer on the active 13 (and why.)
- Callups are indented under the player going on the IL (roughly). They may not have the exact same role, but may correlate with who might be sent down.
Starting Rotation:
1 Brayan Bello. (prev: lat tightness, IL 4/21- 5/12)
Naoyuki Uwasawa. Called up 4/28, optioned 5/8.
2 Nick Pivetta (prev: elbow, IL 4/6-5/8)
3 Kutter Crawford
4 Tanner Houck
5 Garret Whitlock. 60 Day IL (oblique, 4/17, turned into TJ issues).
Joe Jacques (LHP). Called up 4/17. DFA 4/19.
Cooper Criswell. Called up 7/12.
6 James Paxton (LHP). Acquired from LAD, added 7/28.
Starting Depth: Keller, Anderson, Dick Fitts? (N40 AAA).
Bullpen:
1 Kenley Jansen
2 Chris Martin. 15 day IL, right elbow inflammation, 7/4 (prev: anxiety, IL 6/2-6/18)
Trey Wingenter. Added 7/9. (optioned WOR 7/12.)
Cam Booser (LHP). Called up 7/12.
3 Josh Winckowski (spent some time as a starter, back to the pen before the AS break)
4 Chase Anderson (DFA 7/28)
Brennan Bernardino (LHP) Called up 4/9.
5 Justin Slaten. 15 day IL, Right elbow inflammation, 7/9.
6 Isaiah Campbell. (prev: shoulder, IL 4/12-6/6) (optioned WOR 6/28)
Bailey Horn (LHP). Called up 6/28.
7 Greg Weissert (optioned WOR 7/29)
Trey Wingenter. Called up 7/29.
8 Joely Rodriguez (LHP). DFA 4/28.
Brad Keller. (optioned WOR 6/24.)
Zach Kelly. Called up 6/5.
Bullpen Notes: 40 man depth thin at the moment.
Minors - 40 man:
Brad Keller. AAA. Starter/longman.
Quinn Priestly. AAA. Starter/longman, gains another year of control (through 2030) if optioned an additional 24 days as of 7/29.
Isaiah Campbell. AAA. 15-day IL 7/23.
Alex Speas. AAA (primarily a reliever in his career.) DFA 7/26.
Wikelman Gonzalez (AA). Starting prospect. Bad year through June. No realistic call-up chance.
Minors - other: (mostly high minors and therefore possibly relevant to this year)
Jorge Benetiz (LHP) AAA. A 2 inning reliever in his first AAA season. Struggled in May.
Luis Guerrero. Power RHP. Being stretched out from 1 to 2 innings in AAA.
Brendan Cellucci (LHP). A 3 inning reliever promoted from AA to AAA 4/27.
Robert Kwiatkowski. Another multi-inning arm. SSS, but looks good.
Vladimir Gutierrez. Acquired 4/18. Former starter pre-TJS in 2020. Control issues.
Joely Rodriguez (LHP) AAA.
Also on the 40 man are:
Lucas Giolito: 60-day IL. TJ surgery 3/12.
Chris Murphy (LHP): 60-day IL. TJ surgery 4/10.
Liam Hendricks: 60-day IL, recovering TJ, maybe available late July/early Aug.
Bryan Mata: 15-day IL forever and ever and ever. Then the 60 day IL for variety.
Brandon Walter: 60 day IL (minors). Shoulder issue.
Garret Whitlock: 60-day IL. TJ bracing surgery 5/30.
Luis Perales (AA). 60-day IL Starting prospect. TJ? late June.
Notes/Some Transactions:
Slaten is a Rule 5 claim for this year.
Joe Jacques was DFA'd to call up Booser and claimed by Arizona. May he forever be an embedded Red Sox.
Joely Rodriguez was DFA'd on April 28th. Cleared on 5/1 and outrighted to AAA.
Vladimir Gutierrez was acquired from the Brewers for cash on 4/18. AAA. DFA'd on 5/1 for Dominic Smith. Outrighted 5/6. Former starter pre-TJS in 2020. Control issues.
Sal Romano was signed as a FA on 4/26. Age 30. RHP, ML exp. Reclamation project.
Bailey Horn was acquired from the CWS (DFAd) for cash on 4/30. Optioned to AAA. Age 26. MiL LH relief pitcher.
Naoyuki Uwasawa. Called up 4/28, optioned 5/8 for Pivetta. DFA 7/9 for Wingenter,
Zach Kelly was optioned on 5/26 due to recent high workload and signing HWF (human white flag) Brad Keller. Called up 6/5 for Chris Martin.
Brad Keller, signed 5/26, optioned 6/24.
Garret Whitlock moved from 15 day IL to 60-day on 6/2, following TJ (brace) surgery.
Josh Winckowski was optioned to WOR on 6/4 where he was stretched out as a starter - called up on 6/24, went back to the pen 7/10.
Cam Booser: called up 5/19, optioned 6/24 when Winckowski and Campbell were ready. Called up 7/6 for Martin (elbow) optioned 7/8 after pitching one game. Up again 7/12 for Slaten (IL).
Cooper Criswell. Called up 4/13, optioned 6/18. Effective stop-gap starter. Called up 7/12.
Alex Speas claimed from HOU off waivers on 6/29. DFA 7/27
Trey Wingenter acquired from DET for CJ Weins on 7/6. Optioned 7/12, called up 7/29.
James Paxton acquired from LAD for Moises Bolivar 7/26.
Yohan Ramírez claimed from LAD 7/28.
Quinn Preistly acquired from PIT for Nick Yorke 7/29.
So Paxton is starting tonight and the only starter that's been effective is bumped to the bullpen? I'm just mildly complaining because I admit that I might not be getting the full picture.... are they going to a 6-man rotation or are they going to a 5-man but strategically skipping (see shitty exhausted starting rotation) each guy through the 5-man?
I'm not sure how Criswell would be as a Whitlock (boy it'd be nice to have him in the pen and can see at least 3 games over the past week and a half where he could have preserved a lead) type of role?
I'm not sure how Criswell would be as a Whitlock (boy it'd be nice to have him in the pen and can see at least 3 games over the past week and a half where he could have preserved a lead) type of role?
Deadline day!
****
Starting Rotation:
Bullpen:
****
- Bold is the opening day roster.
- Red indicates no longer on the active 13 (and why.)
- Callups are indented under the player going on the IL (roughly). They may not have the exact same role, but may correlate with who might be sent down.
Starting Rotation:
1 Brayan Bello. (prev: lat tightness, IL 4/21- 5/12)
Naoyuki Uwasawa. Called up 4/28, optioned 5/8.
2 Nick Pivetta (prev: elbow, IL 4/6-5/8)
3 Kutter Crawford
4 Tanner Houck
5 Garret Whitlock. 60 Day IL (oblique, 4/17, turned into TJ issues).
Joe Jacques (LHP). Called up 4/17. DFA 4/19.
Cooper Criswell. Called up 7/12. (moved back to pen 7/28)
James Paxton (LHP). Acquired from LAD, added 7/28.
Starting Depth: Keller, Anderson, Dick Fitts? (N40 AAA).
Bullpen:
1 Kenley Jansen
2 Chris Martin. 15 day IL, right elbow inflammation, 7/4 (prev: anxiety, IL 6/2-6/18)
Trey Wingenter. Added 7/9. (optioned WOR 7/12, up and down, DFA 7/30)
Cam Booser (LHP). Called up 7/12.
3 Josh Winckowski (spent some time as a starter, back to the pen before the AS break)
4 Chase Anderson (DFA 7/28)
Brennan Bernardino (LHP) Called up 4/9.
5 Justin Slaten. 15 day IL, Right elbow inflammation, 7/9.
Cooper Criswell. Called up 7/12. (moved back to pen 7/28)
6 Isaiah Campbell. (prev: shoulder, IL 4/12-6/6) (optioned WOR 6/28)
Bailey Horn (LHP). Called up 6/28.
7 Greg Weissert (optioned WOR 7/29)
Yohan Ramirez. Added 7/30.
8 Joely Rodriguez (LHP). DFA 4/28.
Brad Keller. (optioned WOR 6/24.)
Zach Kelly. Called up 6/5.
Bullpen Notes: 40 man depth thin at the moment.
Minors - 40 man:
Brad Keller. AAA. Starter/longman.
Quinn Priestly. AAA. Starter/longman, gains another year of control (through 2030) if optioned an additional 24 days as of 7/29.
Isaiah Campbell. AAA. 15-day IL 7/23.
Alex Speas. AAA (primarily a reliever in his career.) DFA 7/26.
Wikelman Gonzalez (AA). Starting prospect. Bad year through June. No realistic call-up chance.
Minors - other: (mostly high minors and therefore possibly relevant to this year)
Jorge Benetiz (LHP) AAA. A 2 inning reliever in his first AAA season. Struggled in May.
Luis Guerrero. Power RHP. Being stretched out from 1 to 2 innings in AAA.
Brendan Cellucci (LHP). A 3 inning reliever promoted from AA to AAA 4/27.
Robert Kwiatkowski. Another multi-inning arm. SSS, but looks good.
Vladimir Gutierrez. Acquired 4/18. Former starter pre-TJS in 2020. Control issues.
Joely Rodriguez (LHP) AAA.
Also on the 40 man are:
Lucas Giolito: 60-day IL. TJ surgery 3/12.
Chris Murphy (LHP): 60-day IL. TJ surgery 4/10.
Liam Hendricks: 60-day IL, recovering TJ, maybe available late July/early Aug.
Bryan Mata: 15-day IL forever and ever and ever. Then the 60 day IL for variety.
Garret Whitlock: 60-day IL. TJ bracing surgery 5/30.
Luis Perales (AA). 60-day IL Starting prospect. TJ? late June.
Notes/Some Transactions:
Slaten is a Rule 5 claim for this year.
Joe Jacques was DFA'd to call up Booser and claimed by Arizona. May he forever be an embedded Red Sox.
Joely Rodriguez was DFA'd on April 28th. Cleared on 5/1 and outrighted to AAA.
Vladimir Gutierrez was acquired from the Brewers for cash on 4/18. AAA. DFA'd on 5/1 for Dominic Smith. Outrighted 5/6. Former starter pre-TJS in 2020. Control issues.
Sal Romano was signed as a FA on 4/26. Age 30. RHP, ML exp. Reclamation project.
Bailey Horn was acquired from the CWS (DFAd) for cash on 4/30. Optioned to AAA. Age 26. MiL LH relief pitcher.
Naoyuki Uwasawa. Called up 4/28, optioned 5/8 for Pivetta. DFA 7/9 for Wintgenter.
Zach Kelly was optioned on 5/26 due to recent high workload and signing HWF (human white flag) Brad Keller. Called up 6/5 for Chris Martin.
Brad Keller, signed 5/26, optioned 6/24.
Garret Whitlock moved from 15 day IL to 60-day on 6/2, following TJ (brace) surgery.
Josh Winckowski was optioned to WOR on 6/4 where he was stretched out as a starter - called up on 6/24, went back to the pen 7/10.
Cam Booser: called up 5/19, optioned 6/24 when Winckowski and Campbell were ready. Called up 7/6 for Martin (elbow) optioned 7/8 after pitching one game. Up again 7/12 for Slaten (IL).
Cooper Criswell. Called up 4/13, optioned 6/18. Effective stop-gap starter. Called up 7/12.
Alex Speas claimed from HOU off waivers on 6/29. DFA 7/27
Trey Wingenter acquired from DET for CJ Weins on 7/6. Optioned 7/12, called up 7/29, DFA 7/30
James Paxton acquired from LAD for Moises Bolivar 7/26.
Yohan Ramírez claimed from LAD 7/28.
Quinn Preistly acquired from PIT for Nick Yorke 7/29.
Lucas Sims acquired from CIN for Ovis Portes 7/30.
Luis Garcia acquired from LAA for Matthew Lugo, Niko Kavadas, Ryan Zeferjahn, Yeferson Vargas 7/30.
Based on results lately I'm curious how much the league has adjusted to Andrew Bailey's methods and how much is poor performance from nearly everyone on the team?
At least as important as either of those is that July is hot, humid and a launching pad for abusing pitchers of almost any calibre. Red Sox batters are doing rather well -- it's just the pitching staff that is performing poorly.
August is usually just as bad or worse. September makes the pitchers look good again, as they did in April.
From the Glob's 108 Stitches email newsletter:
Of course relievers are really volatile, so nobody really knows what we're going to get from the 40 or so innings these 2 might pitch for us.
The bullpen has been truly horrendous this month and changes needed to be made to try to keep the team afloat. Hopefully Sims and Garcia will help stop the bleeding.
Of course relievers are really volatile, so nobody really knows what we're going to get from the 40 or so innings these 2 might pitch for us.
Boston starting pitching since June 9th. The key number is the HR/FB% - its why xFIP so so much lower. Over this stretch Boston is 21st in ERA, 24th in FIP, and 9th in xFIP. Boston ranks dead last in HR/FB% by a considerable margin.They rank 20th in Innings Pitched.
By Player
Crawford was lucky from the start. His xFIP was over 4 even during Mar/April. Here is HR/FB%. Too many Home runs.
June 26.7%
July 19.6%
August 30.8%
FIP says Houck has been better than his results. xFIP is lower because his HR/FB% is high.
His July numbers were terrible: 4.71 FIP/5.3 xFIP. His K% went from over 24% in the first 3 months to 12%.
What's interesting abouit Bello is how similar some of his '23 numbers are to his '24 numbers.
'23 FIP 4.54, xFIP 4.02 HR/FB% 17.1
'24 FIP 4.57,.xFIP 3.73, HR/FB% 19.5
FB velocity is nearly identical
Bello has gotten unlucky (BABIP in June was .405 and in July was .351
Pivetta looks to have been unlucky as well.
By Player
Crawford was lucky from the start. His xFIP was over 4 even during Mar/April. Here is HR/FB%. Too many Home runs.
June 26.7%
July 19.6%
August 30.8%
FIP says Houck has been better than his results. xFIP is lower because his HR/FB% is high.
His July numbers were terrible: 4.71 FIP/5.3 xFIP. His K% went from over 24% in the first 3 months to 12%.
What's interesting abouit Bello is how similar some of his '23 numbers are to his '24 numbers.
'23 FIP 4.54, xFIP 4.02 HR/FB% 17.1
'24 FIP 4.57,.xFIP 3.73, HR/FB% 19.5
FB velocity is nearly identical
Bello has gotten unlucky (BABIP in June was .405 and in July was .351
Pivetta looks to have been unlucky as well.
No one knows for sure but Merloni referred to a conversation with Cora earlier this week where he said now that he has a loaded pen with more guys on the way that he'd be more aggressive. Essentially "playoff Cora".
The top of the order was coming up for the third time, including 3 out of 4 LHB, and one of them was Seager who already had 3 home runs in the series. It was time for a southpaw.
It was a 3-2 game, the pen was rested, and Seager, who had already hit a ton of homers this series, including one off Pivetta was up. An aggressive move to bring in Booser and it paid off. Ancillary effect of a relatively light start for Pivetta, not that those pitches can be banked for the future of course.
Whoops! I totally thought that was Seager. Well, it was still a LH batter, so the points remain 
The radio guys said his fastball was averaging 91, down from his usual 94. So maybe something's bothering him.
On the Rangers TV broadcast, they made it sound like Cora was angry at Pivetta for being emotionally demonstrative on the mound after his second HR allowed. Cora did come to the mound unexpectedly, and they had footage that plausibly supported that, but it seems pretty out of character for Cora to make an intervention like that in front of others, so I am not endorsing their interpretation.
