2024 Rotation and Bullpen
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
I think the bullpen problem is more urgent than that.
Great: Kenley, Kelly, Booser
Previously great but currently broken: Martin, Slaten
Previously great but recently garbage: Weissert, Bernardino
Bulk innings: Anderson, Horn
The problem is we have no depth in AAA currently. Campbell is still broken, Wingenter isn't ready, Speas has
Weissert, Bernie and Horn should all be in AAA or on the IL right now, and the only way that can happen with our current resources is waiting for Martin and Slaten come back, which is still only 2 solutions for 3 problems.
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Unfortunately, we haven’t seen the strides I hoped for from our Worcester relievers Troye and Zeferjahn.
Mata could be great actually but is being thrown in to a bad situation.
Criswell seems likely to be in a Whitlock role and could thrive there if he gets bumped to the pen in a trade for a starter.
Winckowski I think should just get surgery.
Criswell seems likely to be in a Whitlock role and could thrive there if he gets bumped to the pen in a trade for a starter.
Winckowski I think should just get surgery.
An individual hitter slumping doesn't have the same disproportionate effect on game outcomes as a reliever who gives up runs in 6 straight appearances.
I think they're both tired and being asked to throw through it cause there's nobody available to give them a break.
Weissert OPS allowed by month
April: 610
May: 818
June: 833
July: 970
He’s below replacement level and has been for quite a while. He is good as a righty specialist (647 ops against) but getting tattooed by lefties (974). Somehow, 44% of his plate appearances are against lefties- so teams are recognizing it or he’s just being misused.
April: 610
May: 818
June: 833
July: 970
He’s below replacement level and has been for quite a while. He is good as a righty specialist (647 ops against) but getting tattooed by lefties (974). Somehow, 44% of his plate appearances are against lefties- so teams are recognizing it or he’s just being misused.
Didn’t he break a small bone in his foot but opted to play through it despite some minor pain? Maybe I’m
Hendriks is throwing bullpens. There's one slot filled. martin sounds like they wanted to get him a break though the ASG but he should be back. We need an arm but maybe not a high leverage one.
UPDATE: Now saying Martin won't make the LA-COL road trip.
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He has bone chips or something in his ankle that he's been pitching through since, I believe, sometime last season.
Throwing bullpens is great, but I wouldn’t lock that in as a spot filled. Long ways to go before Hendriks is pitching in big league games, and who knows what to expect if / when he returns. Asking him to be a high leverage reliever this season feels like a lot.
Horn had one bad outing and two good ones.
Is there a reason why we think he's not a viable ML pitcher?
Horn seems fine; hard to know what we have here, his walk rates are crazy high in the minors, but tons of K’s and he’s only 26. Having three lefties in the pen doesn’t seem ideal, though.
He's 35. In 2019, 20, 21, and 22 he was an All-Star closer who sometimes got MVP and Cy votes. Then he was sick and injured in 2023.
I think, as long as his arm is healthy, he can handle it. Meaning, I don't think there's going to be a ramp-up period of middle relief for this guy - he'll either be back or he won't.
I don’t think his age matters that much, but it takes time for guys to come back from Tommy John. He just had surgery in August. To be back as a high leverage reliever this season would be fantastic; but a tad optimistic, IMO. Throwing bullpens is a great start for sure but a ways to go before he’s a solution for this year.
Fun database of players who got TJS
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN680Hq-FDVsCwvN-3AazykOBON0/edit
Fun database of players who got TJS
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN680Hq-FDVsCwvN-3AazykOBON0/edit
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He's probably just not *that* good. Or not quite good enough for the leverage he's been pitching in lately. (which might be the flip side of the platoon coin)
I think he's fine as an ML pitcher, I just think he and Anderson are kinda the same guy and I'm not sure we we need two mop up dudes when we could use that spot on someone capable of higher leverage.
Well, he's being used a bit differently than Anderson, but I get what you're saying. Having a guy who can go 2 or 3 innings is a must. Two. . .I think it can work. Most of the relievers in AAA were stretched out for 2 inning outings, which seems to be a skillset they want. But I don't think that automatically equates to mop up.
Even so, Horn's clearly the short man in the pen at the moment. Between Speas, Wingenter, Campbell, and Keller, we've got a lot of guys who are "projects" on the 40-man. Horn may be the best of the lot - given Keller is the emergency starter at the moment. Maybe. Winckowski's role remains a touch murky.
I'm a bit late for the recent Bello discussion, but isn't it possible that Bello's performance is being driven by Jekyll and Hyde pitches? It seems to me that when his pitches do what he wants them to they are nasty but that his command is really inconsistent and he throws a lot of non-competitive balls AND meatballs because of that poor command. I haven't watched all of his starts and I'm hardly even an amateur scout, but that's what I've observed at least casually. I'm sure some of the wOBA against is poor luck, but I don't think all of it is.
I'm more scratching my head about Kenley's performance last night. That's 5 ER in his last 3 appearances, and we truly don't have the resources to hide him if he's going through a rough patch. I'm worried.
Also: they aren't allowed to replace him since he's not going on the IL. It seems weird to me that MLB doesn't have some carve out for medical exemptions like this.
Also: they aren't allowed to replace him since he's not going on the IL. It seems weird to me that MLB doesn't have some carve out for medical exemptions like this.
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The first of those appearances was the first 2 inning save of his in a long time, and the runs came in his second inning of work after looking great in the first inning.
The second was one bad pitch. It really sucked to let Kiké tie the game, but shit happens.
Last night was his second night of work in a row, after laboring the day before, against a really good offense (even without Mookie).
I am not all that concerned... yet.
He's getting the next three games off, so if it is an over-work thing, a few more days of rest (after the ASB) will hopefully help.
It's getting grim.
The bullpen has blown 5 saves in the last 4 games, which sounds impossible but they've done it. (1 on Friday, 2 on Saturday, 2 on Monday.) The pen is on fumes and they really could use another arm for tonight and tomorrow.
Last night Winckowski threw 1 inning (25 pitches) Booser 1 inning (8 pitches) Kelly 2 IP, Weissert 1 IP (13 pitches) Horn 0.2 IP (10 pitches) and Anderson 0 IP, 2 pitches, 1 hit).
On Sunday, Horn threw an inning (12 pitches) Anderson threw an inning (20 pitches) and Kenley threw 1 IP but isn't with the team this series.
None of the available relievers is going very well right now, most have pitched a lot since the break, and we have Criswell starting at Coors Field tonight.
Unfortunately, there aren't any good options on the 40-man. For Worcester, Isiah Campbell is on the injured list. Brad Keller has a 5.59 ERA in 9.2 July IP. Alex Speas has thrown 2.2 innings with 4 walks and 3 Ks. Trey Wingentner has thrown 3 scoreless innings in AAA but was... unimpressive in his only Red Sox appearance.
They could drop someone from the 40-man and add someone else, but that seems unlikely. Looks like either one of Keller, Speas, or Wingentner is about to get on a plane heading to Colorado, or they are going to try to get through the next 2 games with a shorthanded, gassed bullpen that has been blowing multiple leads every night lately.
The bullpen has blown 5 saves in the last 4 games, which sounds impossible but they've done it. (1 on Friday, 2 on Saturday, 2 on Monday.) The pen is on fumes and they really could use another arm for tonight and tomorrow.
Last night Winckowski threw 1 inning (25 pitches) Booser 1 inning (8 pitches) Kelly 2 IP, Weissert 1 IP (13 pitches) Horn 0.2 IP (10 pitches) and Anderson 0 IP, 2 pitches, 1 hit).
On Sunday, Horn threw an inning (12 pitches) Anderson threw an inning (20 pitches) and Kenley threw 1 IP but isn't with the team this series.
None of the available relievers is going very well right now, most have pitched a lot since the break, and we have Criswell starting at Coors Field tonight.
Unfortunately, there aren't any good options on the 40-man. For Worcester, Isiah Campbell is on the injured list. Brad Keller has a 5.59 ERA in 9.2 July IP. Alex Speas has thrown 2.2 innings with 4 walks and 3 Ks. Trey Wingentner has thrown 3 scoreless innings in AAA but was... unimpressive in his only Red Sox appearance.
They could drop someone from the 40-man and add someone else, but that seems unlikely. Looks like either one of Keller, Speas, or Wingentner is about to get on a plane heading to Colorado, or they are going to try to get through the next 2 games with a shorthanded, gassed bullpen that has been blowing multiple leads every night lately.
Management had a lot of time to figure this situation out and plan for it.
They had to know that after the break the LA series was going to be a very tough one on the bullpen.
They also had to know in advance that Kenley (who blew up in LA) was going to miss the Colorado series.
So what exactly was the plan?
It appears they didn't have one.
But then again, what do I know.
I imagine part of their plan was the starters going at least 6 innings and the pen not imploding on itself every single game. If their belief was that some guys were getting worn down and that the ASB would rejuvenate them, I can understand why they didn't make any drastic moves and trusted the pitchers they had.
Also, as has been discussed in other threads recently, finding and acquiring new/better players isn't like going to the store and buying fresh off the rack. The teams that have the players they want have to be willing to deal them too. I have no doubts Breslow and company have been working the phones for possible trades. But it's not something that can be accomplished through sheer willpower. At least not if they don't want to mortgage the farm for marginal improvements.
My feeling is basically it's been one of the better relief corps in baseball, and unfortunately, every single guy has hit the skids or gotten injured at the same time. I think Booser is one of the few not to give up and earned runs in his last few games.
Also, like... the scouting and development/front office have pulled a number of relief pitchers out of thin air, basically, between Booser, Bernardino, and Slaten. They've also got great runs from guys like Kelly and Weissert (who's in this forum's doghouse, I know, but we were all raving about him two months ago). Let's have a little faith that they'll identify their guy and go get him if they feel they need to.
I would be pretty confident this group can right the ship, but that really depends on health. If Slaten and Martin both are done for a while and Hendriks isn't going to come back till September (if at all), then it's really going to take Weissert, Booser, Bernardino, and Winck stepping up in a major way.
All the more reason to jump on James Paxton….Criswell can go to long relief…
non-sequiter: was looking back at the 7/13 Tommy John surgery list posted here and some things struck me; Prior to ’74 when TJ first had it guys were done- career over just like that, and the thing was it didn’t seem like there were that many guys dropping out of baseball because of arm trouble. Yet those were the days of complete games and 250-400 innings pitched per year (I remember Hoyt Wilhelm had 382 one year), and people like Tiant with 150+ pitches per game sometimes. Pitchers still threw low to mid nineties- just not every pitch. The current approach is really off the rails imho. Is it really the only way to get guys out? Also, didn’t remember that Greenwell had it. And Jay Payton twice, 2 years apart…
non-sequiter: was looking back at the 7/13 Tommy John surgery list posted here and some things struck me; Prior to ’74 when TJ first had it guys were done- career over just like that, and the thing was it didn’t seem like there were that many guys dropping out of baseball because of arm trouble. Yet those were the days of complete games and 250-400 innings pitched per year (I remember Hoyt Wilhelm had 382 one year), and people like Tiant with 150+ pitches per game sometimes. Pitchers still threw low to mid nineties- just not every pitch. The current approach is really off the rails imho. Is it really the only way to get guys out? Also, didn’t remember that Greenwell had it. And Jay Payton twice, 2 years apart…
The Sox throw their MLB-leading 12th shutout and no one's around to comment on it? Criswell went 7 innings for the first time in his career. He's been everything we could hope for in a 6th starter. Breslow did a great job signing him and Bailey in getting him to contribute so well. Criswell's ERA is down to 4.02 and the Sox are 9-5 in games he's started.
Shades of Tim Wakefield... less-heralded pitcher stepping up big time with the team in need. Hats off to Criswell for that performance tonight.
Edit: I had a memory of Wake pitching well in an important game vs the Rockies. I was a little off -- he did pitch well, but it wasn't super-important. In 2007, on June 12 the Sox sat at 40-22 with a 9.5 game lead in the AL East after losing the previous game to Arizona (but winning that series 2-1). Wake went 8 IP giving up 1 run on 4 hits and 1 walk with 3 strikeouts in a 2-1 Sox win. (The Sox lost the next two to lose that series 1-2.)
It was his only start for the Sox against the Rockies, and just his second (and last) appearance for the Sox against the Rockies (the other was a three inning save almost exactly five years before, on June 10, 2002).
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Interesting comparison. Here’s another one: durable* guys who definitely will have nights where they get absolutely blasted.
*I must admit I don’t really know Criswell’s durability and assuming he is because he’s a soft tosser
*I must admit I don’t really know Criswell’s durability and assuming he is because he’s a soft tosser
I have a feeling that when we look back on the 2024 campaign, Criswell stopping this tough skid and saving an extremely taxed bullpen is going to be looked back on as a pretty key moment.
Now go get us some bullpen help, Craig.
Now go get us some bullpen help, Craig.
The Royals, Mariners, Astros, Twins, Orioles, and Yankees each lost, so last night was an especially good night to win.
Yes it was the Rockies, who are bad. But it was also Coors Field, which is insane.
Googled pitcher’s velocity (for whatever that’s worth)- most average guys in the 60‘s-80’s lived 88-92. Top guys like Seaver,, Gibson, Clemens etc were 95-98. Bob Feller supposedly was measured by army equipment at 98.6, Koufax supposedly could hit 100. Nolan Ryan was a freak and 95-100 all the time.
Ehh...ive got no beef with him
He succeeded at the few baseball things he was good at. (Mostly involving protecti ng touchdown leads)
Yeah he was there to eat innings... not pitch well. And he did that... when he was put in high leverage situations that's on the bullpen being depleted... not his for being forced into a role he wasn't fit for.
He's probably a Chase Anderson type arm that fills a spot until the next person is ready and he's DFA'd
Updating RR's list with today's moves.
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Starting Rotation:
Bullpen:
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- Bold is the opening day roster.
- Red indicates no longer on the active 13 (and why.)
- Callups are indented under the player going on the IL (roughly). They may not have the exact same role, but may correlate with who might be sent down.
Starting Rotation:
1 Brayan Bello. (prev: lat tightness, IL 4/21- 5/12)
Naoyuki Uwasawa. Called up 4/28, optioned 5/8.
2 Nick Pivetta (prev: elbow, IL 4/6-5/8)
3 Kutter Crawford
4 Tanner Houck
5 Garret Whitlock. 60 Day IL (oblique, 4/17, turned into TJ issues).
Joe Jacques (LHP). Called up 4/17. DFA 4/19.
Cooper Criswell. Called up 7/12.
6 James Paxton (LHP). Acquired from LAD, added 7/28.
Starting Depth: Keller, Anderson, Dick Fitts? (N40 AAA).
Bullpen:
1 Kenley Jansen
2 Chris Martin. 15 day IL, right elbow inflammation, 7/4 (prev: anxiety, IL 6/2-6/18)
Trey Wingenter. Added 7/9. (optioned WOR 7/12.)
Cam Booser (LHP). Called up 7/12.
3 Josh Winckowski (spent some time as a starter, back to the pen before the AS break)
4 Chase Anderson (DFA 7/28)
Brennan Bernardino (LHP) Called up 4/9.
5 Justin Slaten. 15 day IL, Right elbow inflammation, 7/9.
6 Isaiah Campbell. (prev: shoulder, IL 4/12-6/6) (optioned WOR 6/28)
Bailey Horn (LHP). Called up 6/28.
7 Greg Weissert
8 Joely Rodriguez (LHP). DFA 4/28.
Brad Keller. (optioned WOR 6/24.)
Zach Kelly. Called up 6/5.
Bullpen Notes: 40 man depth thin at the moment.
Minors - 40 man:
Brad Keller. AAA. Starter/longman.
Isaiah Campbell. AAA.
Alex Speas. AAA (primarily a reliever in his career.) DFA 7/26.
Wikelman Gonzalez (AA). Starting prospect. Bad year through June. No realistic call-up chance.
Minors - other: (mostly high minors and therefore possibly relevant to this year)
Jorge Benetiz (LHP) AAA. A 2 inning reliever in his first AAA season. Struggled in May.
Luis Guerrero. Power RHP. Being stretched out from 1 to 2 innings in AAA.
Brendan Cellucci (LHP). A 3 inning reliever promoted from AA to AAA 4/27.
Robert Kwiatkowski. Another multi-inning arm. SSS, but looks good.
Vladimir Gutierrez. Acquired 4/18. Former starter pre-TJS in 2020. Control issues.
Joely Rodriguez (LHP) AAA.
Also on the 40 man are:
Lucas Giolito: 60-day IL. TJ surgery 3/12.
Chris Murphy (LHP): 60-day IL. TJ surgery 4/10.
Liam Hendricks: 60-day IL, recovering TJ, maybe available late July/early Aug.
Bryan Mata: 15-day IL forever and ever and ever. Then the 60 day IL for variety.
Brandon Walter: 60 day IL (minors). Shoulder issue.
Garret Whitlock: 60-day IL. TJ bracing surgery 5/30.
Luis Perales (AA). 60-day IL Starting prospect. TJ? late June.
Notes/Some Transactions:
Slaten is a Rule 5 claim for this year.
Joe Jacques was DFA'd to call up Booser and claimed by Arizona. May he forever be an embedded Red Sox.
Joely Rodriguez was DFA'd on April 28th. Cleared on 5/1 and outrighted to AAA.
Vladimir Gutierrez was acquired from the Brewers for cash on 4/18. AAA. DFA'd on 5/1 for Dominic Smith. Outrighted 5/6. Former starter pre-TJS in 2020. Control issues.
Sal Romano was signed as a FA on 4/26. Age 30. RHP, ML exp. Reclamation project.
Bailey Horn was acquired from the CWS (DFAd) for cash on 4/30. Optioned to AAA. Age 26. MiL LH relief pitcher.
Naoyuki Uwasawa. Called up 4/28, optioned 5/8 for Pivetta. DFA 7/9 for Wingenter,
Zach Kelly was optioned on 5/26 due to recent high workload and signing HWF (human white flag) Brad Keller. Called up 6/5 for Chris Martin.
Brad Keller, signed 5/26, optioned 6/24.
Garret Whitlock moved from 15 day IL to 60-day on 6/2, following TJ (brace) surgery.
Josh Winckowski was optioned to WOR on 6/4 where he was stretched out as a starter - called up on 6/24, went back to the pen 7/10.
Cam Booser: called up 5/19, optioned 6/24 when Winckowski and Campbell were ready. Called up 7/6 for Martin (elbow) optioned 7/8 after pitching one game. Up again 7/12 for Slaten (IL).
Cooper Criswell. Called up 4/13, optioned 6/18. Effective stop-gap starter. Called up 7/12.
Alex Speas claimed from HOU off waivers on 6/29. DFA 7/27
Trey Wingenter acquired from DET for CJ Weins on 7/6. Optioned 7/12.
James Paxton acquired from LAD for Moises Bolivar 7/26.
Yohan Ramírez claimed from LAD 7/28.
I hate to do this, but bring Campbell up. He sucked with us, but he was good at the ML level in Seattle last year. He's been ok at our mL. And I really thought he was a steal.
And then I remember he was acquired for Urianals.
And then I remember he was acquired for Urianals.