2024 Rotation and Bullpen

[Rovin Romine]

Yes, right, thanks. So this means their current ERA reflects unsustainable hit sequencing luck?

Yes and no, I think. Yes in that I don't think there's any way under the sun they collectively sustain their better-than-Pedro ERA throughout the entire season. I think batters will adjust to the new pitching patterns.

But No in that I also don't think that everything outside a strikeout is absolutely-evenly distributed pure luck outcomes (and so FIP reflects a real-world outcome that they're going to trend back to.) It really can't be, can it - given that we know pitchers have tendencies, like Bello, to be FB or GP pitchers. (Or to flip this from the batter's perspective, Yoshida. It's not like weak grounders and hard hit doubles are randomly distributed for him.) BABIP must be fed. But he feeds unevenly. Houck, Whitlock, and Pivetta, for example, are low, but not absurdly so.

Anyway, if you want to see if this is sustainable, there's a place to look. Bailey was the pitching coach for the SF Giants from 2020 to 23. The '21 Giants had just about everyone on the roster take a giant step forward. (Har har.) But then many regressed in '22, but there were aging factors and roster turn over as well. I'd look at Savant to see if pitch mixes changed for individual pitchers between 20 and 21, then 21 and 22.

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

The defense is baked into the ERA, so the delta between the two is the defense (and park factors). Have they made all their errors when the relievers are in? Is the outfield D saving the starters a bunch of runs? I guess I'm not shocked because the ERAs are all so low despite the defense. But I don't know why the FIP is significantly higher.

Yes, right, thanks. So this means their current ERA reflects unsustainable hit sequencing luck?

Yes and no, I think. Yes in that I don't think there's any way under the sun they collectively sustain their better-than-Pedro ERA throughout the entire season. I think batters will adjust to the new pitching patterns.

But No in that I also don't think that everything outside a strikeout is absolutely-evenly distributed pure luck outcomes (and so FIP reflects a real-world outcome that they're going to trend back to.) It really can't be, can it - given that we know pitchers have tendencies, like Bello, to be FB or GP pitchers. (Or to flip this from the batter's perspective, Yoshida. It's not like weak grounders and hard hit doubles are randomly distributed for him.) BABIP must be fed. But he feeds unevenly. Houck, Whitlock, and Pivetta, for example, are low, but not absurdly so.

Anyway, if you want to see if this is sustainable, there's a place to look. Bailey was the pitching coach for the SF Giants from 2020 to 23. The '21 Giants had just about everyone on the roster take a giant step forward. (Har har.) But then many regressed in '22, but there were aging factors and roster turn over as well. I'd look at Savant to see if pitch mixes changed for individual pitchers between 20 and 21, then 21 and 22.

Just want to add a bit to this discussion -- the defense may or may not be baked into the ERA. Defense should have some impact, of course, but as you've noted in your follow-up hit sequencing does as well, as does BABIP which is more controllable by pitchers but still random.

While BOS has a middle-of-the-road strand rate, the starters are first in baseball with 84.2%. That does almost certainly reflect a significant amount of sequencing luck. I looked back as far as Y2K and no team broke an 80% strand rate other than in the short 2020 season. It was rare to even have a team break 79%.

The starters also have a BABIP against of .250, would also be the lowest since Y2K (I didn't look back any further), although a couple of teams have been in the mid to low .250's. Most years the best teams' rotation BABIP against is in the .260's.

The rotation's HR/FB of 8.2% is also low, with most MLB leading rotations bottoming out in the 10-12% range over the past several complete seasons (I didn't bother looking all the way back to Y2K).

The Sox starters are fairly middle of the road in medium and hard contact %, but are 8th in soft contact %. The Sox starters are 4th in GB% but 10th in LD%, and also 8th in barrel % and 3rd in EV.

So the statcast data seems to suggest that the Sox have been successfully managing quality of contact in addition to their very strong FIP stats, although perhaps not at an elite level.

The team defense, as everyone has noted, has been terrible. That said, I'm not well versed enough in the defensive metrics to understand how to separate out the error rate from other aspects of defense. A team with good to great range that makes a ton of errors is going to likely be bad on the overall defensive metrics, but will still reflect well on the pitcher.

So all in all my conclusion from all of this is that the Sox rotation has been both among the best in the league and also lucky. The ERA is absolutely unsustainable, but how unsustainable is unclear.

The fact that the team is leading the league in FIP- by far and is tied for first in xFIP- is fantastic even if the ERA is also a mirage. The starters have been nothing short of excellent.

Better lucky than good, but best to be both.

 

[Ale Xander]

Can you award a pitching coach MVP?

Because if I had a vote, I'd be tempted to vote for Bailey.

I know it's SSS, but it's been incredible (the SP part).

Maybe him and Breslow know what they're doing, and we shouldn't have been freaked by the alleged lack of aces.

 

[simplicio]

I'm concerned about Winck today, he was not looking sharp in the Cleveland games. It would be nice if Bailey could Gandalf up a little more than of that starter magic.

 

[BaseballJones]

Updated from the last two games:

Bello:
5.0 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 2 k (W, Sox win 6-4)
5.0 ip, 5 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 6 k (ND, Sox win 5-4)
5.1 ip, 4 h, 3 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 3 k (L, Sox lose 7-1)
5.1 ip, 6 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 8 k (W, Sox win 5-4)
6.0 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 7 k (W, Sox win 8-1)
TOT: 26.2 ip, 21 h, 11 r, 9 er, 7 bb, 26 k, 3.04 era, 1.05 whip, 8.8 k/9

Houck:
6.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 10 k (W, Sox win 9-0)
6.0 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 7 k (W, Sox win 12-2)
5.2 ip, 12 h, 7 r, 4 er, 0 bb, 2 k (L, Sox lose 7-0)
9.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 9 k (W, Sox win 2-0)
TOT: 26.2 ip, 22 h, 7 r, 4 er, 2 bb, 28 k, 1.35 era, 0.90 whip, 9.4 k/9

Crawford:
6.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 7 k (ND, Sox lose 4-3)
4.2 ip, 2 h, 1 r, 1 er, 3 bb, 5 k (ND, Sox win 8-6)
5.0 ip, 2 h, 0 r, 0 er, 4 bb, 6 k (ND, Sox lose 7-5)
5.2 ip, 2 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 6 k (ND, Sox lose 6-0)
6.0 ip, 7 h, 1 r, 1 er, 3 bb, 6 k (W, Sox win 4-2)
TOT: 27.1 ip, 16 h, 3 r, 2 er, 11 bb, 30 k, 0.66 era, 0.99 whip, 9.9 k/9

Whitlock:
5.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 8 k (W, Sox win 5-1)
4.1 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 4 bb, 4 k (ND, Sox lose 2-1)
5.0 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 4 k (ND, Sox lose 9-4)
4.0 ip, 3 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 1 k (ND, Sox lose 10-7)
TOT: 18.1 ip, 14 h, 4 r, 4 er, 7 bb, 17 k, 1.96 era, 1.15 whip, 8.3 k/9

Pivetta:
6.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 10 k (L, Sox lose 1-0)
5.0 ip, 5 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 3 k (W, Sox win 1-0)
TOT: 11.0 ip, 8 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 13 k, 0.82 era, 0.82 whip, 10.6 k/9

Bernardino:
2.0 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 3 bb, 10 k (ND, Sox lose 5-4)

Criswell:
4.0 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 4 k (ND, Sox win 7-2)

Winckowski:
3.1 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 1 k (ND, Sox win 6-1)

TOTALS:

119.1 ip, 89 h, 29 r, 23 er, 32 bb, 129 k, 1.73 era, 1.01 whip, 9.7 k/9

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Pretty phenomenal. Can’t really argue with a 13-10 record; of course the pitching has been better than anyone’s wildest dreams, but the offense has been fairly middling in the opposite direction. At this point, I imagine most folks have to be pretty happy while acknowledging that it’s going to be difficult to continue winning unless some guys get healthy (er). Feel like the fewer (less?) opener games, the better.

 

[flymrfreakjar]

Time to start giving Slaten more high-leverage opportunities no? Love that he can go multiple innings but he's probably the best reliever on the team and may well be one of the very best in the AL.

 

[BaseballJones]

Chris Martin's 2024 game log. Pretty great except for one horrendous outing.



Guess which game I actually attended in person?

LOL

 

[Rovin Romine]

One day I know I'll bump the running post with good news.

I just know I will.

Yesseriee.

But the news today is Bello is on the 15 day IL with lat tightness, and Z.Kelly has been called up to replace him. Kelly has been doing very well at WOR, mostly in 2 inning chunks, and should be good to go: https://www.milb.com/player/zack-kelly-677161

***

Starting Rotation: Callups are indented under the player going on the IL. They may not have the same role, but it correlates with who might be sent down.

1 Bello 15 Day IL (lat tightness, 4/21) soonest back - 5/6.​

Kelly​

2 Pivetta 15 Day IL (elbow, 4/6) soonest back - 4/21. Recovering well, but not activated as of today.​

Criswell​

3 Crawford​

4 Houck​

5 Whitlock 15 Day IL (oblique, 4/17) soonest back 5/2.​

Booser (LHP)​

Starting Depth, * indicates current 40-man: Winckowski* (long man MLB), Anderson* (long man MLB), Uwasawa* (AAA), Fitts (AAA).​

Notes:​

Currently 3 starters are on the IL with Criswell being the only dedicated starter called up. Winckowski has started a game but only went 44(?) pitches or so.​

Uwasawa last pitched on 4/21, so would not be available until 4/26 or so. His early going has not been great: https://www.milb.com/player/naoyuki-uwasawa-683822?season=2024&team=533&stats=gamelogs-r-pitching-mlb&year=2024​

But so far, nobody among the Gambrel/Alexander/Fitts/Van Belle rotation really stands out. That said, of them all, Fitts has had the greatest number of good starts this year.​

Bullpen:

1 Jansen​

2 Martin​

3 Winckowski (initial long man)​

4 Anderson (initial long man)​

5 Slaten​

6 Rodriguez (LHP)​

7 Campbell 15 Day IL (shoulder 4/12) soonest back 4/27. Good reports.​

Bernardino (LHP)​

8 Weissert​

Bullpen Depth, * indicates current 40-man: V.Gutierrez* (AAA), Benetiz (LHP) (AAA).​

Minors - 40 man:

V.Gutierrez (AAA). A starter before TJ surgery, now slotted as a reliever at WOR.​

Uwasawa (AAA). Japanese import. Giving up runs in AAA, probably a break glass option.​

W.Gonzalez (AA). Starting prospect, not setting the world afire so far. No realistic call-up chance.​

Perales (A). Starting prospect, not setting the world afire so far. No realistic call-up chance.​

​

Minors - other:

Benetiz (LHP) (AAA). A 2 inning reliever in his first AAA season. Lights out so far.​

Also on the 40 man are:

Lucas Giolito: 60day IL TJ surgery​

Chris Murphy (LHP): 60day IL, likely TJ​

Liam Hendricks: 60day IL, recovering TJ, maybe available post-trade-deadline. ​

Bryan Mata: IL forever.​

Brandon Walter appears injured but is not on an injury list.​

Notes:

Jacques was DFA'd to call up Booser and claimed by Arizona. May he forever be an embedded Red Sox.​

 

[simplicio]

Jacques was claimed by Arizona.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40011141/diamondbacks-acquire-inf-sergio-alcantara-claim-lhp-joe-jacques

 

[Rovin Romine]

Jacques was claimed by Arizona.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40011141/diamondbacks-acquire-inf-sergio-alcantara-claim-lhp-joe-jacques

Thank you - post updated.

 

[simplicio]

Cora said today that Kelly's role will grow. I assume at this point that's coming at Joely's expense?

 

[bosockboy]

Joely DFA-

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1784574930249470124?s=46

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Joely DFA-

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1784574930249470124?s=46

Good call.
Assuming Uwasawa gets a start then likely sent back down for Pivetta

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Good call.
Assuming Uwasawa gets a start then likely sent back down for Pivetta

Makes sense. Also makes sense to bring him up and activate him today to fill the long man role just in case. Presumably they want to stay away from Slaten and Booser and maybe Kelly today. The good news is that Weissart, Martin, and Jansen are as fresh as you can get and Bernardino is probably good for an inning too. As long as Houck keeps pitching the way he has, Uwasawa shouldn't be needed but it is good to have him around anyway.

 

[chrisfont9]

Joely DFA-

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1784574930249470124?s=46

gonna guess he goes unclaimed? I dunno, maybe someone will take a chance on him.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

gonna guess he goes unclaimed? I dunno, maybe someone will take a chance on him.

Hopefully a team in playoff competition

edit- or the Dodgers and he will turn into a BP ace

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Wouldn't at all be surprising if he goes to a different team and does well. That's how it is for middle relievers.
But it wasn't going to work out here with this team at this time.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Starting Rotation: Callups are indented under the player going on the IL. They may not have the same role, but it correlates with who might be sent down.

1 Bello 15 Day IL (lat tightness, 4/21) soonest back - 5/6.​

Uwasawa​

2 Pivetta 15 Day IL (elbow, 4/6) soonest back - 4/21. Recovering well, but not activated as of today.​

Criswell​

3 Crawford​

4 Houck​

5 Whitlock 15 Day IL (oblique, 4/17) soonest back 5/2.​

Booser (LHP)​

Starting Depth, * indicates current 40-man: Winckowski* (long man MLB), Anderson* (long man MLB), Uwasawa* (AAA), Fitts (AAA).​

Notes:​

Currently 3 starters are on the IL with Criswell being the only dedicated starter called up. Winckowski has started two games but has not gone deep.​

Uwasawa was called up on 4/28. His early going has not been great: https://www.milb.com/player/naoyuki-uwasawa-683822?season=2024&team=533&stats=gamelogs-r-pitching-mlb&year=2024​

So far, nobody among the Gambrel/Alexander/Fitts/Van Belle rotation really stands out. That said, of them all, Fitts has had the greatest number of good starts this year.​

Bullpen:

1 Jansen​

2 Martin​

3 Winckowski (initial long man)​

4 Anderson (initial long man)​

5 Slaten​

6 Campbell 15 Day IL (shoulder 4/12) soonest back 4/27. Good reports.​

Bernardino (LHP)​

7 Weissert​

8 Kelly​

Bullpen Depth, * indicates current 40-man: V.Gutierrez* (AAA), Benetiz (LHP) (AAA).​

Minors - 40 man:

V.Gutierrez (AAA). A starter before TJ surgery, now slotted as a reliever at WOR..​

W.Gonzalez (AA). Starting prospect, not setting the world afire so far. No realistic call-up chance.​

Perales (A). Starting prospect, not setting the world afire so far. No realistic call-up chance.​

​

Minors - other:

Benetiz (LHP) (AAA). A 2 inning reliever in his first AAA season. Lights out so far.​

Also on the 40 man are:

Lucas Giolito: 60day IL TJ surgery​

Chris Murphy (LHP): 60day IL, likely TJ​

Liam Hendricks: 60day IL, recovering TJ, maybe available post-trade-deadline. ​

Bryan Mata: IL forever.​

Brandon Walter appears injured but is not on an injury list.​

Notes:

Jacques was DFA'd to call up Booser and claimed by Arizona. May he forever be an embedded Red Sox.​

Joely Rodriguez was DFA'd on April 28th. Two corresponding moves are calling up Uwasawa to the 26 man for a spot start, and perhaps adding Garret Cooper (1B) to the 40 man?​

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Joely Rodriguez was DFA'd on April 28th. Two corresponding moves are calling up Uwasawa to the 26 man for a spot start, and perhaps adding Garret Cooper (1B) to the 40 man?

Only one corresponding move related to Joely (for now). Cooper was added to the 40-man when Casas was put on the 60-day IL. The 40-man sits at 39 players with the Joely DFA.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Only one corresponding move related to Joely (for now). Cooper was added to the 40-man when Casas was put on the 60-day IL. The 40-man sits at 39 players with the Joely DFA.

Thank you. It'll be interesting to see which minor leaguer (if any) gets put on the 40.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Thank you. It'll be interesting to see which minor leaguer (if any) gets put on the 40.

I’m guessing they’re hoping to keep it available for potential midseason additions

 

[Whoop-La White]

Sons of Bailey Horn!

View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1785430840975008048

 

[Gold Dust Twin 19]

Sons of Bailey Horn!

View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1785430840975008048

Or maybe that is "The" Son of Sam Horn?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Before he was with the White Sox, he was with...the Cubs. Breslow is very familiar with him.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Before he was with the White Sox, he was with...the Cubs. Breslow is very familiar with him.

Andrew Bailey will now turn him into Sparky Lyle.

 

[MFYankees]

Andrew Bailey will now turn him into Sparky Lyle.

Bailey is going to make him sit on birthday cakes?

 

[moondog80]

The staff closes out April with an ERA+ of 162. Amazing. But...if this is simply a matter of something like better pitch selection (all the talk of fewer fastballs), I'd think other clubs will soon follow and have their hitters adjust and/or have their pitchers follow suit, and the edge will diminish.

And if it's not that -- if Bailey/Breslow truly have some magic touch that hitters cannot adjust to and other clubs can't replicate, and even 50% of this improvement is a real effect that is repeatable, aren't they worth like 30 million dollars a year, combined? Maybe more?

 

[simplicio]

if Bailey/Breslow truly have some magic touch that hitters cannot adjust to and other clubs can't replicate, and even 50% of this improvement is a real effect that is repeatable, aren't they worth like 30 million dollars a year, combined? Maybe more?

Last April our starters put up .5 fWAR. This April it's been 4.1.

It may be closer to 30 million a month.

 

[bosockboy]

Best ERA in the majors by almost half a run, with 3/5 of the rotation on the IL.

Just get them all healthy and this team has a puncher’s chance.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Bailey is going to make him sit on birthday cakes?

Hadn’t heard of that one, but thus was so. Lyle for Cater, worst Boston trade with the Yankees ever?

https://www.nytimes.com/1977/10/13/archives/spark-of-yankees-brilliance-yanks-spark-of-brilliance-gives-foes.html

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Best ERA in the majors by almost half a run, with 3/5 of the rotation on the IL.

Just get them all healthy and this team has a puncher’s chance.

ERA overstates things because of how many UER there are, but even our bWAR (based on runs allowed, adjusted for defense) leads the majors with 5.2. Second place is SEA with 4.6, then DET with 4.3.

fWAR, which is basically just based on FIP, has PHI at 5.6, BOS 5.0, WAS 4.4, SEA 4.3.

 

[BaseballJones]

Crawford is going to have a good year, I think. He's a guy who, if he pitched for another team, we'd want the Sox to sign. 27 years old, 4.04 era, 3.83 fip, 1.11 whip, 9.4 k/9 last year. Apparently has picked up a couple MPH on his fastball from last year as well. Not exactly prime Pedro, but a really solid, useful MLB-caliber starter, which the Sox desperately need.

Dude has been even better than I hoped/thought he'd be. He's been absolutely huge for Boston so far, especially with all the injuries to the staff.

 

[simplicio]

7 innings is a career high for him. For a guy who was worst on the team in terms of IP/start last year, that's a huge deal. His development over the last 3 seasons, born largely of necessity/desperation, has really been a bright spot. I'm so happy it's paying dividends now.

 

[nvalvo]

We were all incredulous (myself included!) this offseason at the notion that the team wanted to roll with what they had in the pitching staff instead of adding one of the available FAs or trade candidates.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Joely survives and is back in Worcester

 

[Sin Duda]

We were all incredulous (myself included!) this offseason at the notion that the team wanted to roll with what they had in the pitching staff instead of adding one of the available FAs or trade candidates.
View attachment 81948

Nicely done. Although I know FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching, I don't know the details. Is it typically greater than a pitcher's ERA, as shown in your table?

 

[nvalvo]

Nicely done. Although I know FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching, I don't know the details. Is it typically greater than a pitcher's ERA, as shown in your table?

Not necessarily.

FIP is an ERA-scaled measure made up of BB rate, K rate, and HR rate, in an effort to remove defense, BABIP luck, and official scorers' decisions from a pitcher's record. What's interesting about it is that it correlates with future ERA somewhat better than past ERA does, so it can be interpreted as a kind of predictor.

Look at the various Dodgers. Glasnow has an excellent ERA that is basically equal to his FIP, so that tells us that his peripherals support his excellent ERA — he earned that ERA by striking out a ton of guys and giving up very few walks and HR: seems like a promising approach. Paxton also has a good ERA, but an ominous FIP two runs higher. That bodes ill, and when we check his line we see that he's walked more hitters than he's struck out. Yamamoto has a good ERA of 3.54, but a sparkling FIP in the mid 2s that suggests he's actually pitched somewhat better than his results.

So the Sox' starters have a fantastic 2.00 ERA, but have the BB-, K-, and HR-rates of a merely excellent 3.00-ERA staff. Ordinarily, one might guess that this is an excellent defense keeping runs off the board, but in this case, having watched most of the games, I think it's more likely that it is a wildly uneven defense (and the official scorer) keeping earned runs off the board. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[edited to add: Because the peripherals stabilize far faster than ERA, FIP is a lot more useful in evaluating a small sample like a month — if we're trying to predict how many runs Tanner Houck will allow for the remainder of the season, at this stage it is more helpful to know that he cut his walk rate by two-thirds (!!!!) than it is to how many runs he has allowed so far. That's what FIP shows us.]

 

[Sin Duda]

Not necessarily.

FIP is an ERA-scaled measure made up of BB rate, K rate, and HR rate, in an effort to remove defense, BABIP luck, and official scorers' decisions from a pitcher's record. What's interesting about it is that it correlates with future ERA somewhat better than past ERA does, so it can be interpreted as a kind of predictor.

Look at the various Dodgers. Glasnow has an excellent ERA that is basically equal to his FIP, so that tells us that his peripherals support his excellent ERA — he earned that ERA by striking out a ton of guys and giving up very few walks and HR: seems like a promising approach. Paxton also has a good ERA, but an ominous FIP two runs higher. That bodes ill, and when we check his line we see that he's walked more hitters than he's struck out. Yamamoto has a good ERA of 3.54, but a sparkling FIP in the mid 2s that suggests he's actually pitched somewhat better than his results.

So the Sox' starters have a fantastic 2.00 ERA, but have the BB-, K-, and HR-rates of a merely excellent 3.00-ERA staff. Ordinarily, one might guess that this is an excellent defense keeping runs off the board, but in this case, having watched most of the games, I think it's more likely that it is a wildly uneven defense (and the official scorer) keeping earned runs off the board. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[edited to add: Because the peripherals stabilize far faster than ERA, FIP is a lot more useful in evaluating a small sample like a month — if we're trying to predict how many runs Tanner Houck will allow for the remainder of the season, at this stage it is more helpful to know that he cut his walk rate by two-thirds (!!!!) than it is to how many runs he has allowed so far. That's what FIP shows us.]

Thank you, nvalvo, for that excellent explanation. Because of the vagaries of ERA for relief pitchers, I've always kept and eye on WHIP as a better indicator of their performance. Sounds like FIP does that quite well, and I especially like the future value of it. Thanks again.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

We were all incredulous (myself included!) this offseason at the notion that the team wanted to roll with what they had in the pitching staff instead of adding one of the available FAs or trade candidates.
View attachment 81948

Montgomery's numbers look considerably different this morning

 

[Rovin Romine]

Update: I'm reformatting this a bit to look like the lineup thread, so it's both a snapshot and a history.

- Bold is the opening day roster.​

- Red indicates no longer on the active 13 (and why.)​

- Callups are indented under the player going on the IL (roughly). They may not have the exact same role, but may correlate with who might be sent down.​

- N40 is for a viable pitcher not on the 40 man. Not meant to be comprehensive. (Please suggest the most likely hot hand.)​

Starting Rotation:

1 Brayan Bello. 15 Day IL (lat tightness, 4/21). Expected back - 5/12 or so.​

Naoyuki Uwasawa. Called up 4/28.​

2 Nick Pivetta 15 Day IL (elbow, 4/6). Rehab start in AAA 5/2. Expected back 5/7.​

Cooper Criswell. Called up 4/13.​

3 Kutter Crawford​

4 Tanner Houck​

5 Garret Whitlock. 15 Day IL (oblique, 4/17). Throwing but not in rehab.​

Joe Jacques (LHP). Called up 4/17. DFA 4/19.​

Cam Booser (LHP). Called up 4/19.​

Starting Depth: Winckowski, Anderson, Uwasawa, Dick Fitts? (N40 AAA).​

​

SP Notes: Currently 3 starters are on the IL. Criswell and Uwasawa have been called up with Criswell getting dedicated starts along with Winckowski. It seems to be something of a mix-and-match approach as Houck and Crawford log long outings to preserve the pen.​

So far at AAA, nobody among the Gambrel/Alexander/Fitts/Van Belle rotation really stands out. That said, of them all, Fitts has had the greatest number of good starts this year. But that could change with a handful of starts.​

Bullpen:

1 Kenley Jansen​

2 Chris Martin​

3 Josh Winckowski​

4 Chase Anderson​

5 Justin Slaten​

6 Isaiah Campbell. 15 Day IL (shoulder 4/12). Good reports, but not yet in rehab.​

Brennan Bernardino (LHP). Called up 4/9.​

7 Greg Weissert​

8 Joely Rodriguez (LHP) DFA 4/28.​

Zack Kelly. Called up 4/24​

​

Bullpen Notes: 40 man depth thin at the moment, but some promising arms are in AAA.​

Minors - 40 man:​

Joely Rodriguez (LHP) AAA.​

Bailey Horn (LHP). AAA. (Acquired 4/30, and has not thrown for WOR yet.)​

W. Gonzalez (AA). Starting prospect, not setting the world afire so far. No realistic call-up chance.​

L. Perales (A). Starting prospect, not setting the world afire so far. No realistic call-up chance.​

​

Minors - other: ​

Jorge Benetiz (LHP) AAA. A 2 inning reliever in his first AAA season. Lights out with one blip outing so far.​

Luis Guerrero. Power RHP. Being stretched out from 1 to 2 innings in AAA.​

Brendan Cellucci (LHP). A 3 inning reliever promoted from AA to AAA 4/27.​

Robert Kwiatkowski. Another recent AA to AAA promotion. Another multi-inning arm. SSS, but looks good.​

​

Also on the 40 man are:​

Lucas Giolito: 60-day IL TJ surgery​

Chris Murphy (LHP): 60-day IL, likely TJ​

Liam Hendricks: 60-day IL, recovering TJ, maybe available post-trade-deadline. ​

Bryan Mata: IL forever and ever and ever.​

Brandon Walter injured but is not on an injury list (possible service time reasons).​

​

Notes/Transactions (mostly high minors and therefore possibly relevant to this year):​

Slaten is a Rule 5 claim for this year.​

Joe Jacques was DFA'd to call up Booser and claimed by Arizona. May he forever be an embedded Red Sox.​

Joely Rodriguez was DFA'd on April 28th. Cleared on 5/1 and outrighted to AAA.​

Vladimir Gutierrez was acquired from the Brewers for cash on 4/18. AAA. DFA'd on 5/1 for Dominic Smith. Former starter pre-TJS in 2020. Control issues.​

Sal Romano was signed as a FA on 4/26. Age 30. RHP, ML exp. Reclamation project.​

Bailey Horn was acquired from the CWS (DFAd) for cash on 4/30. Outrighted to AAA. Age 26. MiL LH relief pitcher.​

​

 

[Rovin Romine]

Joely survives and is back in Worcester

Joely can actually get ML hitters out, at the risk of imploding every so often. We don't have a lot of space left on the 40, so maybe Joely is a guy you put on later in the year as an emergency call-up, and hey, if you have DFA him when that call-up expires, you have to. Meanwhile, maybe he figures something out in AAA. If he were coming from another team, say SEA, he's exactly the kind of guy you want to take a high-minors flyer on.

That said, it's telling that nobody claimed him.

And, while I get the logic of the above, I'm just personally ready to move on.

 

[simplicio]

Joely is currently off the 40 man right?

 

[jon abbey]

Joely is currently off the 40 man right?

Yep

 

[nvalvo]

Montgomery's numbers look considerably different this morning

Oh wow. They sure do!

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Oh wow. They sure do!

If it turns out he's injured my mind will turn....more... into mush.

 

[nvalvo]

If it turns out he's injured my mind will turn....more... into mush.

I don’t see any indication he’s hurt. He just got roughed up by a deep lineup in a high-altitude ballpark. It happens.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Why do any of us give a shit about Arizona pitchers?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Why do any of us give a shit about Arizona pitchers?

I don't really care. I just wanted Montgomery for what I assumed would have been above average innings, consistently for 3-4 years and lots of them as a starter. So if it turns out his struggles was tied into him being injured (and yeah, no evidence, I'm just hypotheticalizing!) it'd be another "innings eater" going down and would be more confirmation on not signing FA pitchers north of 30.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I don't really care. I just wanted Montgomery for what I assumed would have been above average innings, consistently for 3-4 years and lots of them as a starter. So if it turns out his struggles was tied into him being injured (and yeah, no evidence, I'm just hypotheticalizing!) it'd be another "innings eater" going down and would be more confirmation on not signing FA pitchers north of 30.

I probably should have said "in this thread."