2024 Prospect Rankings Thread

ZMart100

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2008
3,494
Given Hunter’s criteria (no one who hasn’t played in A-ball or higher, no one who has played in MLB) the rankings are mostly in line with others’. Two exceptions are Yuten at 25 (above Dean, Ingrassia, Anderson, Zanetello, Brannon) and Nelly Taylor at 19 (above Early, Mullins, Jordan, Valera, Wehunt).

I probably wouldn’t have Taylor quite that high but it’s reasonable. Yuten was the big surprise to me.
Unless I missed it, and I looked twice, no Yoeilin in the top 30 is a surprise to me.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
Just in awe... I wanted to make a joke about putting Alexander Alzi over Jomar Fernandez, but instead I'll just say thanks.
Oops, just saw this post. Thx!

Jomar has the cooler name, but he's 2 years older.
 

brownsox

New Member
Mar 11, 2007
61
Not exactly a ranking, but I noticed that Eric Longenhagen’s latest piece on the players added to 40-man rosters had a FV grade of 45+ for Jhostynxon Garcia.

That’s a significant step up from Eric’s midsummer grade (40). Last summer, only six players - Anthony, Mayer, Rafaela, Teel, Bleis, and Campbell - were graded at 45+ or higher.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
SP doing their part to protect Yordanny from rule 5 I see.
He clearly struggled down the stretch.

9 GS (6-0)
44 IP
2 ER (0.41 ERA)
17 hits (.114 BAA)
14 bb (2.9 bb/9)
54 k (11 k/9)

I'm just going to go on rankings strike until after December 11th at this point.

I feel like my valuation on so many of these guys is so different I feel like I must be taking crazy pills. The fact that I was way higher than them on KCamp & Arias last off season gives me some hope I'm not crazy, but who knows?
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
Quick look at how my process was looking compared to SP from last February (this thread's OP) as they relate to their new rankings:

Good
Yorke (my #11, SP #6) - was SP #12 when they traded him.

Nazzan (#15/#12) - SP #35 (which seems too low but whatever)

Dobbins (#19/#23) - SP #11

Castro (#18/#14) - SP #23

Guerrero (#20/#26) - SP #21

KCamp (#23/#46) - SP #2

Arias (#25/#31) - SP #7 (I thought there was a bigger gap but I guess not in February)

AA (#27/#22) - SP #45 (prob low)

Paez (#28/#39) - SP #28

Hickey (#30/#16) - SP #49

Pengod (#35/#38) - SP #24 (why was I so low on PENGOD?)

Troye (#38/#33) - SP NR

Starlyn (#43/NR) - SP #46

Alcantara (#47/#30) - SP #59

Dean (#50/NR) - SP #41

Walter (#55/#32) - SP NR

Ravelo (#57/#43) - SP NR

TMac (#68/#42) - SP NR

Bad
Yordanny (#7/#20) - SP #26 (f uuuuuu)

Blaze (#16/#19) - SP #32 (seems a bit low but who knows)

Meidroth (#21/#13) - SP #8

Mata (#24/#28) - SP #56

I. Coffey (#29/#45) - SP #57 (11-4, 3.17 ERA, 11.7 k/9...)

Elmer (#31/#25) - SP #25 (wonder why I was so down on ERC?)

Rosier (#37/#51) - SP NR (oops)

C. Coffey (#42/#37) - SP #28 when traded (but he had a .581 OPS in 97 PAs after the trade so not really sure i was that wrong)

Song (#44/NR) - SP NR

Blizzard (#63/#21) - Peaked at 19 before graduating (I still don't really see it but that's a silly ranking)

M. Lugo (#72/#54) - #13 when traded (pretty dumb. I did move him up much quicker than SP, but yeah)

Early (#73/#57) - #17 (seems crazy high but idk, I was still lower)

Zeferjahn (#83/#53) - #37 when traded

Sogard (#92/#52) - #31 when graduated

So overall I'll declare a small victory even using their own rankings. So I guess I'll keep it going...if Yordanny Day goes well.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
13,092
I still wish that Yuten had a brother that Boston signed as it would be so much fun to say The two Yuten.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
TJStats does some pretty fun stuff with stuff metrics. He came out with a top 50 pitching prospect rankings including the following Red Sox:

34) Fitts
45) Perales
50) Paez

https://tjstats.substack.com/p/mlb-top-50-pitching-prospects-winter

Fitts:

Richard Fitts is a command-over stuff pitcher who saw an increase in his stuff following his trade to Boston. Fitts tosses a cut-ride fastball, which flashes plus thanks to its mid 90s velocity and 17” iVB. It hasn’t had the greatest results, but he utilizes it all counts to register called strikes. His slider has tight glove-side movement with large deviations in his vertical movement. He has a great feel for the offering and uses it evenly against LHH and RHH. His sweeper is an extension of his slider with more glove-side movement, and he mostly uses it as ahead in counts against RHH. His primary off-speed pitch changed throughout the season, starting as a changeup and transforming into a lower spin splitter. The newer splitter flashes plus, but his feel for the pitch is less refined. Fitts’ smooth and repeatable delivery has helped him maintain high Strike% throughout his MLB career and makes me confident that he could be a back-end option for the Red Sox in 2025. His arsenal grades out well, and unlocking his splitter would bump his ceiling to mid-rotation starter.
Perales:

Perales was in the midst of a head-turning season but unfortunately underwent Tommy John surgery this past July. His fastball is the jewel of his arsenal, sitting 96-98 MPH with a ton of ride and minimal arm-side run from an over-the-top release. The pitch is an easily plus offering, but its steeper approach angle makes it run at a lower whiff rate than the shape would suggest. He has a cutter that sits in the high 80s with more glove-side movement than the average cutter and slider sits at 84-86 MPH with minimal depth. His splitter is a whiff machine, sitting in the mid-80s with over a foot of vertical separation from his fastball. Perales showed improved strike throwing ability in 2024, which was encouraging to see given his typical control issues. He will likely be out until 2026, where he will need to build back up to a starter’s workload and likely see his command dip. The stuff is that of a high leverage arm in the bullpen, which may eventually be his home.
Paez:

Paez is an undersized pitcher who showcases incredible command with a middling fastball and solid secondaries. He has always been effective at limiting walks, including a tiny 3.0 BB% across 96.2 IP this season. He showed improved velocity compared to 2023 and increased his K% to 30.2% upon his promotion to Hi-A. His fastball has sinking action and sits in the low 90s. It doesn’t get much movement and has been effective at inducing weak contact. It likely won’t run high whiff rates, but his knack for pin-pointing the offering helps it steal strikes. His slider sits 80-82 MPH and gets over a foot of sweep. He rounds out his arsenal with a changeup with a ton of arm-side movement. Paez possesses one of the highest command ceilings of any pitching prospect, with the potential to reach an elusive 80 grade. His weaker fastball likely limits his upside, but his strike-throwing ability gives him a very likely chance to be a formidable back-end option.
 

LoLsapien

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 5, 2022
456
I don't have anything to contribute here except to say that after trading four prospects for a ML pitcher, and after we lose Campbell, Mayer, and Anthony to the big leagues ... Our farm system ranking is gonna take a major hit, guys!!

It will be interesting, to me at any rate, whether we see a shift from a position player dominant top of the system, to a pitcher dominant top of the system, after the recent draft and all the mL trades for guys like Priester et al.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
7,570
Was wondering the same- 2 of the top 5 are gone. 2 are likely to be graduated possibly as early as April. The 3rd if things are slow.... Mayer.... another year but he could end up the no. 1 prospect if he can stay healthy after all the teams graduations.
After him it gets much younger quickly in the Sox system. Hopefully some pitching starts to move up
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
13,054
around the way
I don't have anything to contribute here except to say that after trading four prospects for a ML pitcher, and after we lose Campbell, Mayer, and Anthony to the big leagues ... Our farm system ranking is gonna take a major hit, guys!!

It will be interesting, to me at any rate, whether we see a shift from a position player dominant top of the system, to a pitcher dominant top of the system, after the recent draft and all the mL trades for guys like Priester et al.
You gotta figure that some of the pitcher prospects from last year will pop over the next couple of years just from the sheer volume of spaghetti thrown against the wall. The system will almost certainly equalize somewhat in short order between that and the outgoing bats in the Crochet trade.
 

brownsox

New Member
Mar 11, 2007
61
Obviously a lot depends on when the current Big Three graduate. As long as they’re still counted, the system will not only still be position-player tilted, but it should be pretty good.

But as you note, I think they could all debut in 2025. A year from now, the best hitters in the system could be Cespedes, Romero, and the Garcia brothers, which is quite a drop in quality unless one of them (probably Cespedes or Johanfran) makes The Leap.

A lot of the spots at the top of the rankings should indeed be filled by pitchers, but other than Perales, who probably won’t pitch in 2025, there aren’t a lot of guys who currently have star potential. (Plenty of people could develop into that - Monegro, Tolle, Clarke, even Paez if his velocity ticks up).
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
33,038
Alamogordo
Was wondering the same- 2 of the top 5 are gone. 2 are likely to be graduated possibly as early as April. The 3rd if things are slow.... Mayer.... another year but he could end up the no. 1 prospect if he can stay healthy after all the teams graduations.
After him it gets much younger quickly in the Sox system. Hopefully some pitching starts to move up
Sure. I am as a big a prospect humper as there is here, and have enjoyed watching the players rise the ranks, but if your team isn't the Dodgers and has a top of the line farm system for multiple years, then they probably aren't winning much at the MLB level because you need those prospects to graduate at some point. The hope is that all three make the leap this year, and that Grissom is good, and if all of that works out they won't have any top 100 guys, but they will have their LF (Campbell in my dream scenario), SS (Mayer), 2B (Grissom), 1B (Duh), RF (Abreu) and Util OF (Rafaela) for essentially free while they are winning and rebuilding the farm system at the same time.

With the way I have seen some baseball people raving about the Sox development system, I would be surprised to see any/all of Password, Bleis, Arias, Romero, Monegro or Paez beating on the door to the top 100 lists this time next year.

And while they don't have top end pitching, Fitts and Priester look like they could slot in the back end of the rotation this year, Guerrero, Weissert and Slaten are all super cheap and look like solid pen pieces, Criswell has a role somewhere, and Penrod and Dobbins may even see some time in the second half of this year. The Crochet signing, while it hurts the pipeline in the short term, allows everyone else to kind of slot into a spot where they probably belong (Houck 1B/2, Bello 2/3, Crawford/Fitts/Priester/Giolito filling in the rest).

I think this team is in a really good position to go on a long run of sustained success starting as soon as this year. I want them to add one more pitcher, and they need a long term solution at catcher (as much as I liked Teel, I am not convinced he was it, either, though).

Either way, though, I think the rest of this decade should be a lot more fun than the first four years (five is you count 2020 as this decade) have been.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
7,570
After Mayer, Sox Prospects has Arias and Cespedes (both 19) both as top ten SS in the system. Which of these guys are more likely to stick at SS (better defense)?
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
After Mayer, Sox Prospects has Arias and Cespedes (both 19) both as top ten SS in the system. Which of these guys are more likely to stick at SS (better defense)?
Better question on Cespedes at this point seems to be can be stick at 2B. He's getting swole. Arias should be able to stick at SS.
 

brownsox

New Member
Mar 11, 2007
61
Defensively? Probably not (Alcantara). From what the SP guys reported, people who saw him in the FCL thought he was definitely a shortstop, and people who saw him in Salem thought maybe not.

That’s sort of the thing with Arias. In the FCL he did everything about as well as you can do it - he made contact, drew walks, stole 30 bases in 51 games, even showed surprising powers. But it’s the FCL. In Salem he was . . . fine, certainly competent and impressive for an 18 year old, but not anything more than fine.

As for Cespedes, yeah, he may not be able to stick at 2B and might end up at third base or left field. But people seem to think he can really hit.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
Defensively? Probably not (Alcantara). From what the SP guys reported, people who saw him in the FCL thought he was definitely a shortstop, and people who saw him in Salem thought maybe not.

That’s sort of the thing with Arias. In the FCL he did everything about as well as you can do it - he made contact, drew walks, stole 30 bases in 51 games, even showed surprising powers. But it’s the FCL. In Salem he was . . . fine, certainly competent and impressive for an 18 year old, but not anything more than fine.

As for Cespedes, yeah, he may not be able to stick at 2B and might end up at third base or left field. But people seem to think he can really hit.
I don't really understand the Alcantara love SP bestows on him. He's a year older than Arias, his RF/9 was much lower than Arias in Salem (5.20 to 3.66) and his fielding % was significantly lower (.967 to .949). Alcantara was somehow the SP #21 in April '23.

That was coming off a DSL season where he rode a high walk rate & BABIP to a 126 wRC+ & played more innings at 2B than SS. He actually had a very similar first season to Ilan Fernandez, except Ilan exclusively played SS & signed twice as large of a signing bonus. Not sure how I got off on this tangent, but yeah. They must have had some weird scouting report from Spring Training to rank Alcantara that high.

Anyway, back to Arias, just being ok as an 18 y/o SS in A-Ball seems pretty pretty good. Going to compare him to a few other SS age 18 seasons I can find...

Arias (A-Ball): 111 wRC+
Xander B. (A-Ball): 126 wRC+
Lindor (A-Ball): 102 wRC+
Oneil Cruz (A-Ball): 81 wRC+
CJ Abrams (A-Ball): 109 wRC+ (only 9 PAs, 189 in FCL compared to 181 for Arias)
Rocchio (Low-A): 108 wRC+
Volpe (CPX): 102 wRC+
Correa (A-Ball): 147 wRC+
Adames (A-Ball): 122 wRC+
Gunnar (CPX): 103 wRC+
Mayer (CPX) 120 wRC+

& a couple age 19 seasons...

Witt Jr. (CPX): 85 wRC+
Tovar (A-Ball) 119 wRC+
Winn (A-Ball) 112 wRC+
EDLC (A-Ball) 106 wRC+

So basically only Correa was a ton better in A-Ball in his age 18 season, with X & Adames being the other 2 who were better at all. I could definitely have forgotten someone, but definitely didn't intentionally exclude any current SS.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
I don't really understand the Alcantara love SP bestows on him. He's a year older than Arias, his RF/9 was much lower than Arias in Salem (5.20 to 3.66) and his fielding % was significantly lower (.967 to .949). Alcantara was somehow the SP #21 in April '23.

That was coming off a DSL season where he rode a high walk rate & BABIP to a 126 wRC+ & played more innings at 2B than SS. He actually had a very similar first season to Ilan Fernandez, except Ilan exclusively played SS & signed twice as large of a signing bonus. Not sure how I got off on this tangent, but yeah. They must have had some weird scouting report from Spring Training to rank Alcantara that high.

Anyway, back to Arias, just being ok as an 18 y/o SS in A-Ball seems pretty pretty good. Going to compare him to a few other SS age 18 seasons I can find...

Arias (A-Ball): 111 wRC+
Xander B. (A-Ball): 126 wRC+
Lindor (A-Ball): 102 wRC+
Oneil Cruz (A-Ball): 81 wRC+
CJ Abrams (A-Ball): 109 wRC+ (only 9 PAs, 189 in FCL compared to 181 for Arias)
Rocchio (Low-A): 108 wRC+
Volpe (CPX): 102 wRC+
Correa (A-Ball): 147 wRC+
Adames (A-Ball): 122 wRC+
Gunnar (CPX): 103 wRC+
Mayer (CPX) 120 wRC+

& a couple age 19 seasons...

Witt Jr. (CPX): 85 wRC+
Tovar (A-Ball) 119 wRC+
Winn (A-Ball) 112 wRC+
EDLC (A-Ball) 106 wRC+

So basically only Correa was a ton better in A-Ball in his age 18 season, with X & Adames being the other 2 who were better at all. I could definitely have forgotten someone, but definitely didn't intentionally exclude any current SS.
View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1870846202721587289


This Starlyn Caba as the Marlins #3 prospect now & the centerpiece of a Jesus Lazardo trade really kind of hits home to me how solid Franklin Arias's A-Ball season actually was.

Caba, who is about 2 weeks younger than Arias, just put up a 125 wRC+ in FCL & 59 in 115 PAs in A-Ball (compared to 181 & 111 for Arias).

Caba is definitely faster & has a higher defensive ceiling, but yeah. Will be interesting to see if he can hit but it is another data point to show that what Arias did with the bat this year was impressive...Caba posted a .189 SLG in A-Ball.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
Baseball America new Red Sox Top 30:

1) Roman
2) KCamp
3) Mayer
4) Arias
5) Perales
6) Yoely
7) Sandlin
8) Jhostynxon
9) Bleis
10) Early
11) Dobbins
12) Fitts
13) Castro
14) Valera
15) Tolle
16) Mikey
17) YORDANNY
18) Johanfran
19) Paez
20) Dalvinson
21) Cason
22) Guerrero
23) Nelly T
24) Penrod
25) Wehunt
26 Narvaez
27) Nazzan
28) Murphy
29) Brannon
30) Musett
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
Some thoughts...

Jhostynxon over Bleis is a crazy take to me. On so many levels. I admittedly am not a Jhostynxon guy...but he's 16 months older than Bleis, much less athletic, & they both started the year at A-Ball for a reason. The main difference between them in High-A this season seems to be their BABIP: .343 for Password, .219 for Bleis. Give me the far superior athlete who has been better at the same age at every level over the guy who put up a 5% walk rate & 3 sb (7 cs) in 355 PAs in A+ & AA. The power is pretty nice, but I don't think it's going to sustain. I also think Johanfran is a better prospect than Jhostynxon.

I don't really get the Wehunt love either. He had a 4.42 ERA in High-A in his age 23 season (he was quite good at Salem). The good thing about his time in Greenville was in his 59 IP, he had 9.9 k/9 & 2.9 bb/9, but I get the feeling he is getting by a fair amount on size & maturity & doesn't really have a better arm than a lot of other guys.

I thought Murphy had graduated in '23?

& finally, it's nice to see Andruw Jones Musett (his real full name) getting some love.
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,608
Some thoughts...

Jhostynxon over Bleis is a crazy take to me. On so many levels. I admittedly am not a Jhostynxon guy...but he's 16 months older than Bleis, much less athletic, & they both started the year at A-Ball for a reason. The main difference between them in High-A this season seems to be their BABIP: .343 for Password, .219 for Bleis. Give me the far superior athlete who has been better at the same age at every level over the guy who put up a 5% walk rate & 3 sb (7 cs) in 355 PAs in A+ & AA. The power is pretty nice, but I don't think it's going to sustain. I also think Johanfran is a better prospect than Jhostynxon.

I don't really get the Wehunt love either. He had a 4.42 ERA in High-A in his age 23 season (he was quite good at Salem). The good thing about his time in Greenville was in his 59 IP, he had 9.9 k/9 & 2.9 bb/9, but I get the feeling he is getting by a fair amount on size & maturity & doesn't really have a better arm than a lot of other guys.

I thought Murphy had graduated in '23?

& finally, it's nice to see Andruw Jones Musett (his real full name) getting some love.
Bleis is fully in the camp of “I’ll believe it when I see it”. He has to perform at some point. The tools are awesome and he could shoot up that list with just 2-3 good months. But there is something to be said for the fact he has not performed or stayed on the field for 3 seasons now.

To be clear, I think he should be higher too. But the Password can play three outfield positions and has a carrying tool in that he absolutely demolishes lefties. I think he’s more likely to make the majors with those tools.

Though Bleis clearly has a better everyday player profile.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,914
This isn't an indictment of the organization because the goal is a good MLB team and not a good prospect list, but if the big 3 are all up in August, seems like barring some unseen rapid risers, the Sox will have a bottom 10 farm system?
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
9,744
That's the next test of the system, isn't it? How good are we at developing new names? Did anyone have Arias cracking top 100 a year ago?

Perales missing this whole year will obviously hurt though.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,914
That's the next test of the system, isn't it? How good are we at developing new names? Did anyone have Arias cracking top 100 a year ago?
100% yes. Hopefully, they won't need much from the farm for a couple of years after the big 3 are up. Gotta rebuild in that time..
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
Bleis is fully in the camp of “I’ll believe it when I see it”. He has to perform at some point. The tools are awesome and he could shoot up that list with just 2-3 good months.
This post is kinda wild on a lot of levels...

But there is something to be said for the fact he has not performed or stayed on the field for 3 seasons now.
In '22 Bleis had a 141 wRC+ & 18 steals in 167 PAs in his age 18 FCL season.

Jhostynxon was on that same FCL team & had a 99 wRC+ & 4 steals in 121 PAs in his age 19 season.

So it definitely isn't 3 years of struggles. In '23 Bleis apparently played through an injury before being shut down after 142 definitely bad PAs.

Then this past year he had a very good A-Ball season (123 wRC+ in 191 PAs) before being called up to Greenville & struggling for 234 PAs. By all accounts, though, his hitting metrics were fine in terms of EVs, xwOBA, etc. His 23.1% k rate isn't bad for a 20 y/o (for comparison purposes in his age 20 season, Jhostynxon had a 102 wRC+ playing all season in A-Ball with a 25.5% k-rate). Bleis also stole 22 bases in 25 attempts.

To be clear, I think he should be higher too. But the Password can play three outfield positions and has a carrying tool in that he absolutely demolishes lefties. I think he’s more likely to make the majors with those tools.

Though Bleis clearly has a better everyday player profile.
The fact that Jhostynxon has played 2 games in LF because he's further down the defensive spectrum than Bleis due to worse range & a weaker arm isn't like a good thing. I would be pretty shocked if he has the ability to play CF in MLB & probably profiles best as a LF, whereas Bleis should be able to stick in CF, & should be a RF at worst.

& think about your sample size on "demolishing lefties".

He absolutely demolished lefties this year to the tune of a .380/.426/.760 slash... but it was in 54 PAs...& included a .469 BABIP.

In '23 he had 62 PAs against lefties & slashed .192/.355/.350.

I am skeptical that this will translate into MLB dominance against lefties anytime soon. & I would be pretty surprised if Jhostynxon has a better career than Bleis. But anything can happen with prospects.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
That's the next test of the system, isn't it? How good are we at developing new names? Did anyone have Arias cracking top 100 a year ago?

Perales missing this whole year will obviously hurt though.
Yeah...KCamp was the SP #46 in the Red Sox org this time last year lol

I think they'll be just fine, though. The pitching side is making huge gains. Hitting-wise they will need guys like Bleis, Yoely, Mikey, Johanfran, etc. to make leaps.

But having so many young cost controlled graduates really is the goal.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
9,744
Hitting-wise they will need guys like Bleis, Yoely, Mikey, Johanfran, etc. to make leaps.
Let's have some fun: who's the biggest riser amongst the position players next year?

I'm feeling Mikey. This comes from a place that's entirely devoid of data, and maybe I just like saying Mikey or maybe I'm relying on him to make up for Bobby as another guy with a little kid name, but I'll stick to it.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
Let's have some fun: who's the biggest riser amongst the position players next year?

I'm feeling Mikey. This comes from a place that's entirely devoid of data, and maybe I just like saying Mikey or maybe I'm relying on him to make up for Bobby as another guy with a little kid name, but I'll stick to it.
Based on what list? Mikey is the BA #16, SP #13, MLB #12, & I believe around #10 for me. It's hard for him to be the sheer highest riser because he can only possibly go so far, but I wouldn't be shocked if he's top 3 at the end of the year.

In terms of guys a bit further down I could see big leaps from Blaze (SP #27), Riemer (SP #30), AA (SP #41), Musett (SP #57) & unranked guys like YUTE, YOSANDER & ILAN.
 

curly2

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 8, 2003
5,183
Let's have some fun: who's the biggest riser amongst the position players next year?
Nazzan Zanetello's stock has plunged after an awful 2024, but he doesn't turn 20 until May. It would be nice if the Sox find a way to tap into the tools they saw when they gave him a well-over-slot $3 million bonus.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
Nazzan Zanetello's stock has plunged after an awful 2024, but he doesn't turn 20 until May. It would be nice if the Sox find a way to tap into the tools they saw when they gave him a well-over-slot $3 million bonus.
Yeah...I thought about mentioning him but I'm honestly not that optimistic. They really need to put him out in CF, have overhauled his swing, & let him cook. There's definitely a chance. But I don't think it's that high.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
9,744
Is the next market inefficiency figuring out how to develop kids that should have been in minor league programs that no longer exist?
 

ZMart100

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2008
3,494
Let's have some fun: who's the biggest riser amongst the position players next year?

I'm feeling Mikey. This comes from a place that's entirely devoid of data, and maybe I just like saying Mikey or maybe I'm relying on him to make up for Bobby as another guy with a little kid name, but I'll stick to it.
It's likely to be a DSL guy showing something stateside. Justin Gonzales, Anderson Fermin and Avinson Pinto stick out to me. Gonzales feels like the one with the most hype right now, but I think there will be questions about his defense. It's hard to get excited about a 1B/DH type until they hit in the high minors. Pinto I think should be good defensively (won Red Sox Defensive Player of the Month in June) with enough bat to look like a plausible MLB player. Fermin is really toolsy and may just have to look like an athlete to rise. My money would be on Pinto- long way up to go and should have a carrying tool.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
It's likely to be a DSL guy showing something stateside. Justin Gonzales, Anderson Fermin and Avinson Pinto stick out to me. Gonzales feels like the one with the most hype right now, but I think there will be questions about his defense. It's hard to get excited about a 1B/DH type until they hit in the high minors. Pinto I think should be good defensively (won Red Sox Defensive Player of the Month in June) with enough bat to look like a plausible MLB player. Fermin is really toolsy and may just have to look like an athlete to rise. My money would be on Pinto- long way up to go and should have a carrying tool.
Maybe... but taking SP rankings as an example, the only '23 DSL hitters other than Arias & Yoely who even made the current top 60 are Starlyn (#42) & Musett (#57).

But I can't really make heads or tails of how they do these things. Like when they had Marvin Alcantara super high forever & Andy Lugo prior to his injury year, but now after he had a successful A-Ball/High-A season as a 20 y/o, he's not top 60. His '24 season was more than you would expect based on his '22 DSL season.

& now they have Fermin, Pinto & Edwin Brito b2b2b in their rankings (48 to 50) which does not exactly scream that they are thinking about these things critically.

I definitely expect a few guys from that group to pop some this year, though.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
Pinto hit groundballs on 56.3% of balls in play last year, which seems like a lot. Bit concerned with the combo of that, a .351 BABIP & a .073 ISO. On the bright side, he doesn't turn 18 until late May.

But Anderson Fermin's profile is very similar, only worse, including 56.7% ground balls & an even more paltry .044 ISO. Both he & Pinto were 12 of 18 on sb attempts.

Want to look at how this compares to some other DSL seasons...

C Note: 43.5% gb, .108 ISO
Alcantara: 44.6%, .095
A. Lugo: 43.5%, .095
M. Lugo: 35.7%, .074
Arias: 44.9%, .102
Yoely: 31.4%, .215
Yosander: 54.3%, .100
Johanfran: 47.7%, .065
Jhostynxon: 36.4%, .200
Gonzales: 46.9%, .198
Bleis: 42.2%, .168
Yuten: 47.7%, .090

What does any of it mean? No clue, yet.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
Is the next market inefficiency figuring out how to develop kids that should have been in minor league programs that no longer exist?
After thinking about this I've decided it's a silly premise, even if it's a commonly repeated one. Why would it be better for development for prospects to compete in a short-season league against worse competition? Yes, it may be hard for some players, but if they have the right mentality to make it in MLB, they have the right mentality to overcome tough obstacles & learn against players who outmatch them, while being able to benefit from all the great development programs & work on things on the side to get stronger & better.

They also will know exactly what they're getting in A-Ball when they start there the next year.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,571
Chris Hatfield posted this on SP Forum:

I don't mean any disrespect to the player or to any posters here whatsoever when I say this, but I wonder if Blaze Jordan would come up nearly as often as he does if (a) YouTube didn't exist and (b) he was named George. I get he got a huge bonus but so didn't Cutter Coffey (and noticing he also has a sweet name, maybe it's just YouTube).

At least every other rankings update there's someone on Twitter complaining he's too low on our rankings.
2024-25 Offseason National Rankings | SoxProspects.com Forum

I think it's actually kind of the opposite -- because he got so much hype out of HS & hit AA so early, they underrate him. Blaze seems like he's been around forever, but he's 8 days younger than Password. He only had a 98 wRC+ last year, but he dealt with a series of flukey injuries & has been publicly working through depression. Blaze played 57 games at 3B & 27 games at 1B last year. He made a bunch of errors at 3B, but I still see a clear path to that Justin Turner role in '26 if he can stay healthy & get back on track while continuing to improve his body composition.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
13,054
around the way
Chris Hatfield posted this on SP Forum:



2024-25 Offseason National Rankings | SoxProspects.com Forum

I think it's actually kind of the opposite -- because he got so much hype out of HS & hit AA so early, they underrate him. Blaze seems like he's been around forever, but he's 8 days younger than Password. He only had a 98 wRC+ last year, but he dealt with a series of flukey injuries & has been publicly working through depression. Blaze played 57 games at 3B & 27 games at 1B last year. He made a bunch of errors at 3B, but I still see a clear path to that Justin Turner role in '26 if he can stay healthy & get back on track while continuing to improve his body composition.
I agree with you here, but that's because I see more bat ceiling. He's a corner who hasn't shown great power yet, so I also understand the ranking being low.

For breakout candidates, I'm in camp Mikey. I'll throw Anderson's name out there too, just as a wishcasting exercise.