2024 Prospect Rankings Thread

simplicio · Sep 3, 2024

Klaw went and saw Arias and said he's future top 100 material: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5738972/2024/09/03/red-sox-prospect-notes-marcelo-mayer-roman-anthony?source=user-shared-article

Fishy1 · Sep 3, 2024

moondog80 said:
Is Meidroth too low? I get the questions, but .450 OBP in a fill season of AAA as age 23 is tough to ignore. It's tough to send him back to Worcester next year, but unless he's traded, that's by far the most likely scenario. I guess it worked out OK for another Sox 3B who repeated a full year in AAA after clearly mastering it...

I'm not super interested in lists (had a bad run-in with one as a kid) but one thing I'll say about Meidroth is that IMO OBP is still the most important stat from an offensive point of view. Slugging is important too but not making outs is the skill. Hard to find guys who can you give a .350 OBP year-in, year-out. And that's the career I see for Meidroth, IMO.

Although I should also note that there's been a huge gulf between BB% in AAA and BB%'s in the big leagues for a lot of guys. Casas maintained his BB%, but Wilyer's went down about 6%. Valdez's 5% this year, and 12% last year. Hamilton's has gone down about 3%. It's really hard to post a BB% over 10% in the big leagues and not very hard to do in AAA.

The majority of that has to be the quality of the pitching, but I wonder also if the ABS system gives guys a "safety net" feeling where they feel better about taking marginal pitches they "know" are balls because they know the system won't screw them like an ump would. Whereas they get to the big leagues and they find themselves hacking away at close pitches because they don't want to be called out on a third strike (which I can only imagine is a shit feeling).

simplicio · Sep 3, 2024

The pro scouts I've seen mentioning Meidroth pretty uniformly think he'll suffer from MLB pitchers simply not walking him because he doesn't represent a power threat to punish them for staying in the zone. He doesn't profile as one of those guys who never Ks either, so what's his best comp, Daric Barton?

JBJ_HOF · Sep 3, 2024

Meidroth is Sal Frelick without elite speed and elite defense. That's just, not great.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/sal-frelick-686217?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

grimshaw · Sep 3, 2024

simplicio said:
The pro scouts I've seen mentioning Meidroth pretty uniformly think he'll suffer from MLB pitchers simply not walking him because he doesn't represent a power threat to punish them for staying in the zone. He doesn't profile as one of those guys who never Ks either, so what's his best comp, Daric Barton?

Mark Loretta minus his outlier seasons? https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mark-loretta/1383/stats?position=2B

I do think his plus hit tool can still make him a really tough out since he is a spray hitter and spits on everything outside the zone. He'd still be a pain in the ass.
Even if he's a .260/.335/.350 guy that's pretty good if he's an average fielder with average speed.

Edit: Just checked - Steamer has him as .246/.361/.350 which is a slightly above average bat (more bullish than the big three because .obp is weighted very high).

Fishy1 · Sep 3, 2024

JBJ_HOF said:
Meidroth is Sal Frelick without elite speed and elite defense. That's just, not great.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/sal-frelick-686217?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

And Frelick doesnt have Meidroth's patience. I'd think Meidroth would outdo his 8% BB.

Jimbodandy · Sep 3, 2024

As always, love the work @JM3

I'm still Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Campbell (in that order), and I'm a long-time Campbell fan. I get the rankings though. Until people can keep Campbell from eating their lunch, he deserves all of the helium he gets.

FWIW, I'm a lot less sold on a lot of those #12-30 pitchers (excepting Yordanny of course) than most, so would have some of the bats above them. But it's all vibes here too.

Moving onto Arias as my new locus of binky.

nvalvo · Sep 3, 2024

Six top-100, with four in the top 26, is insaaaaaaane.

Especially so because Bleis has fallen out after a mediocre season. He has such a high floor with the speed/defense/athleticism that if he hits *at all* next season (or in AZ) he’ll pop right back up. He just needs to turn a few pop ups into fly balls.

Jimbodandy · Sep 3, 2024

JM3 said:
Thx! Yeah, that's definitely a defensible order, too.

I think it's more that I'm not sold on the hitters in that range more so than it is that I'm fully sold on any of the specific pitchers.

I just can't get too excited about anyone from the Meidroth, Blaze, Castro, Jhostynxon, Nazzan group.

& I love JOHANFRAN but the knee injury when he was already getting fluffy this season is a bit scary.

That's fair too.

Once you get past the high ceiling guys, it's hard to argue too much. Even some of the high ceiling guys have such huge variability to their projections that it's hard to argue.

It's great to see such a deep list of guys who aren't limited or who don't need a miracle to occur for them to make the majors.

RoDaddy · Sep 3, 2024

simplicio said:
The pro scouts I've seen mentioning Meidroth pretty uniformly think he'll suffer from MLB pitchers simply not walking him because he doesn't represent a power threat to punish them for staying in the zone. He doesn't profile as one of those guys who never Ks either, so what's his best comp, Daric Barton?

Will he necessarily "suffer" for getting a steady diet of strikes - i.e., more good pitches to hit? I think how this would play out depends on the hitter. I guess he is at best a one tool guy but the one tool (hit) is looking pretty legit this year. Assuming he doesn't suffer from this, there is still another issue to me: he doesn't hit enough doubles to make up for the lack of power. He needs to add some prime Jody Reed to his game.

Jimbodandy · Sep 3, 2024

JM3 said:
Yeah, it's probably just a weird me thing but I'm kind of more excited about that next group of hitters like Riemer, Nelly T, AA, Gonzales, Yute & Brannon.

& all this depth is a ton of fun. Looking back even as recently as '21 & a guy like Gilberto Jimenez was a top 5 guy.

I'm pretty sure that was just an unforced error by SP...

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/gilberto-jimenez/sa3005507/stats?position=OF

But it's not like there are a lot of other guys tearing up the world at the time.

https://soxprospects.com/history.htm

There have been a couple of times where we were thinner than we wanted to be and then promoted a bunch of guys to the bigs. Next thing you know, some of these guys who would be #12 in an average system and #18 in a good system are your #5. It happens.

ZMart100 · Sep 3, 2024

Here was the writeup in 2021.

Physical Description: Extremely loose and athletic. Standout athleticism. Some projection in his frame. Lower half is filled out. Has transformed his body since signing; once on the skinny side, is now strong and physical.

Hit: Potential average hit tool from the left side and plus hit tool from the right-side. Plus bat speed and very quick hands. Unusually advanced contact skills. Started hitting from the left side in Fall 2017. Has already made strides with his left-handed swing, but it is still a work in progress. Starts open in a crouch and utilizes a toe tap timing device. Does a much better job now of incorporating his lower half and staying in the box and on the ball longer than he did earlier in his career. These changes, along with his added strength, allow him to make more pronounced contact, especially to the pull side. Still willing to drop a bunt down for a base hit if the defense will not guard against that. Swing is more fluid from the right side of the plate, which is his natural side. Starts squarer and more vertical. Barrel stays in the zone longer and he generates more hard contact. Approach and pitch recognition are raw, but strikeout rates are very low due to advanced bat-to-ball skills. At 2020 Fall Instructs, he built on changes to left-handed swing first implemented during 2019 Fall Instructs, starting with a wider base and using a more pronounced weight transfer to better incorporate his lower half. In 2019 with Lowell, he tended to slap at the ball, looking to put it in play rather than drive it, and failed to effectively incorporate his lower half.

Power: Will show above-average raw power from the right side and fringe-average raw from the left. Below-average in-game power potential right now, but added strength plus improvements with his left-handed swing give him a chance for more. Added strength has really helped him to tap into his power and hit the ball harder. Need to see it translate in-game, as his swing is still more designed for hard line drives in the gaps than over-the-fence power. As recently as 2019 in Lowell generated concerningly low exit velocities, but improvements are alleviating those concerns.

Run: Plus-plus speed. As he has filled out, speed has decreased a grade. Will run 3.95-4.05-second times to first from the left side and 4.12-4.15 seconds from the right side. In the past, speed graded an 80, timed at under 3.9 seconds to first from the left side. Even with a slight speed downgrade, he will put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses. Always looks to take the extra base. Very aggressive. Baserunning instincts, reads, and jumps need improvement. Stolen base numbers are not representative of his true speed.

Field: Plus range and speed make up for lack of instincts. Jumps need work. Needs to improve tracking the ball. Overall, has the potential to develop into at least an average defender in center field as he improves his instincts and gets more repetitions.

Arm: Above-average arm strength. Throws show carry and plenty of zip when he lets it fly. Accuracy can be a tad inconsistent. Plenty of arm for any outfield position.

Career Notes: Led the New York-Penn League and Red Sox minor leaguers in batting average in 2019. Naturally a right-handed hitter, started switch-hitting during 2017 Dominican Instructional League to better utilize his elite speed. Slipped through the cracks and signed at 17 for a small bonus after impressing during a tryout at the Red Sox Dominican Academy. Participated in the Fall Instructional League in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Was invited to major league spring training in 2021.

Summation: High ceiling, low floor. Wide range of outcomes due to how raw he is and how much development he has left. Can dream on him becoming an everyday center fielder who adds value at the plate and in the field. One of the highest-ceiling players in the system and could establish himself nationally with a strong full-season debut. Will flash four average-to-better tools at least, but is raw at present. One of, if not the most athletic player in the system. Improved physicality and changes at the plate give him a much better chance to hit and to hit for some power as well. Needs work to refine his defensive game, but has the athletic ability and arm strength you look for in a centerfielder. Possesses great work ethic.

I don't think there's an athlete like that in the low minors right now. Bleis is probably the closest, but Jimenez was more toolsy.

Merkle's Boner · Sep 4, 2024

What’s nuts is that we could graduate all four of the ATMC group to the big club next year, and still have 5 or 6 Top 100 guys. In addition to Montgomery, I expect to see Mikey, Bleis, hopefully at least one of Perales or Cespedes, Arias, and hopefully one other pitcher, either Yordanny or Sandlin would be my bet.
Pretty remarkable time to be a prospect hound.

ZMart100 · Sep 4, 2024

JM3 said:
I was just trying to figure out the closest current comp in our system to Gilberto Jimenez when he was in our top 5...

I think it's either Natanael Yuten or Yosander Asencio...

The question was about Jimenez when he was Soxprospects top 5. That was before he had his 105 wRC+ 2021. He peaked in 2019 at #4 at the end of the season, was #5 for the 2020 covid season. By the end of 2021 he was starting to move down their rankings. So the comparison should not be to the 2021 season, but rather what he had done in 2019. Perhaps they should have been more aggressive, but weighing two good seasons (even with some warning signs) of a good athlete and one bad season, being cautious moving him down seems reasonable to me. I don't think any of your proposed comps are very similar to what Jimenez was. I think Bleis is the best comp. Good athlete, success for two years at DSL and FCL, but hasn't put it together in full season ball. Like Jimenez he's still top 5ish. I say this as a fan of Bleis. Sometimes guys work out and sometimes they don't. I hope it works for Bleis.

chrisfont9 · Sep 5, 2024

Bowden's rankings are up. He's one of my least favorite commenters on rumors and such, but if he still has talent evaluating skills then he might have justified a sliver of his Times money? Anyway...

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5742542/2024/09/05/top-50-mlb-prospects-jobe-bazzana-mayer/

Mayer 5, raves about Campbell at 11, Teel 12, Anthony 21.

chrisfont9 · Sep 5, 2024

I mean, did he see him more than once? Grain of salt and all. But yeah.

burstnbloom · Sep 5, 2024

That's quite the list by Jim. 7 2024 draft picks in his top 20. JJ Wetherholt above Anthony.

ZMart100 · Sep 11, 2024

I missed the Soxprospects update on Thursday until now. Here's the summary:

September Rankings Update is now live: www.soxprospects.com (You may have to hit refresh)

Graduated
Bailey Horn (peaked at 32)

Debuts
Bryce Bonnin at 49
Gabriel Jackson at 50 (season debut, was ranked #60 on 5/3/21)
Anderson Fermin at 53
Avinson Pinto at 54
Edwin Brito at 55

Notable Risers
Kristian Campbell from 5 to 3
Chase Meidroth from 11 to 9
Mikey Romero from 18 to 14
Jhostynxon Garcia from 19 to 15
Zach Penrod from 22 to 19
Yordanny Monegro from 25 to 22
Juan Valera from 27 to 24
Luis Guerrero from 32 to 27
Justin Gonzales from 41 to 32
Justin Riemer from 48 to 37
Nelly Taylor from 53 to 38
Jojo Ingrassia from 50 to 44

Notable Fallers
Elmer Rodriguez from 16 to 21
Nazzan Zanetello from 13 to 30
Noah Dean from 36 to 42
Nathan Hickey from 40 to 48
Grant Gambrell from 39 to 47
Will Turner from 46 to 59
Brooks Brannon from 42 to 51

The most notable thing to me is Zanetello going from 13 to 30. Obviously he hasn't produced, but on the pod it sounded like they are keeping him on the top 30 in case there is some injury related reason. Also interesting is the trio of DSL bats in the 50s. I don't think order matters much there and that is notable.

moondog80 · Sep 11, 2024

ZMart100 said:
I missed the Soxprospects update on Thursday until now. Here's the summary:

The most notable thing to me is Zanetello going from 13 to 30. Obviously he hasn't produced, but on the pod it sounded like they are keeping him on the top 30 in case there is some injury related reason.

159/281/284 with a 43.9% K rate seems like a problem. Keep him around because youneverknow, but if someone insists on him as a throw-in in an otherwise solid trade, I don't imagine there would be much hesitation.

billy ashley · Sep 11, 2024

Yeah, Zanetello was always considered a raw but exciting prospect due to his incredible athleticism, but listening to the last several SP podcasts, it seems like people aren't seeing the same athleticism. This could be due to him being inside his own head given how terrible his season has been, or because of an injury or because he's aging out of that freakish athleticism but it's concerning.

He's so young and was so athletically impressive, you've still got to track him but that his been a disaster of a year for him.

Jimbodandy · Sep 12, 2024

JM3 said:
I think my initial impression of the SP rankings was a bit harsh.

I think they're probably too high on Meidroth & Jhostynxon, too low on Yordanny, & I think it's really lazy to do things like put DSL guys b2b2b, 2 relievers with like nothing in common other than just being promoted to Portland b2b, etc.

I'll never understand why they have Yordanny as low as they do, given the pitchers that they have ranked above him. If it were like 18 great bats there, fine. But some of the arms above him are dubious. Overall they seem to have bumped the right guys in both directions.

Jimbodandy · Sep 23, 2024

Always hard to rank the guys who you're not sure are going to play. Not just a Brainer thing, also the TJ and other injury guys.

As far as your rankings data columns go, you do plenty already. If you wanted to add one, I'd say (K/9 for Pitchers, OPS for Hitters). If two, I'd say (K/9 & BB/9 for P, OBP & HR for H). That's a ton of work, but since you asked, those are things that I use at quick glance for deeper guys that I don't know very well.

Lose Remerswaal · Sep 23, 2024

Rank him 666th

brownsox · Nov 18, 2024

JM3 said:
Haven't looked at these, yet, but they're Hunter Noll's Top 30.

Going to have to do my rankings soon...

https://bosoxinjection.com/boston-red-sox-top-30-prospect-rankings-after-the-2024-season

https://bsky.app/profile/hunternoll.bsky.social/post/3lb5yesxs432y

Given Hunter’s criteria (no one who hasn’t played in A-ball or higher, no one who has played in MLB) the rankings are mostly in line with others’. Two exceptions are Yuten at 25 (above Dean, Ingrassia, Anderson, Zanetello, Brannon) and Nelly Taylor at 19 (above Early, Mullins, Jordan, Valera, Wehunt).

I probably wouldn’t have Taylor quite that high but it’s reasonable. Yuten was the big surprise to me.

Mugsy's Jock · Nov 18, 2024

Yuten's MLB bio page does indeed list him at 6'3", 143 pounds. That's unbelievable to begin with, but looking at those videos is appears they're off by 40 pounds or so.

zenax · Nov 18, 2024

Mugsy's Jock said:
Yuten's MLB bio page does indeed list him at 6'3", 143 pounds. That's unbelievable to begin with...

I was 6'4", 147.5 lbs when I enlisted at age 18-and-a-half, so it's not unheard of.

2024 Prospect Rankings Thread

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