Yes.He is? Dude just put up a 26/8/12/2/2 with only 2 turnovers in 38 minutes and was +2.
He gets gassed more often than not late in games now and absolutely will not last through 2 months of this, even if they made it out of this round.
Yes.He is? Dude just put up a 26/8/12/2/2 with only 2 turnovers in 38 minutes and was +2.
Agree with all this. I don't want to be accused of Celtics-hopium-posting, since Denver is very good (getting bored of giving that disclaimer endlessly), but I think the path to beating them starts on the perimeter.I think this is exactly right. The Lakers just don't have the offensive horses to score enough points and sustain it for 48 minutes. They've now jumped out to early leads in both games, they were up 10 in game 1 about halfway through the 2nd quarter, but Denver just slowly climbs back in it.
Jokic wants nothing to do with coming out of the paint on defense, and when DLo got hot, they were able to make them pay for it. And in the end, if Austin Reeves doesn't go 1/5 from deep, and Lebron doesn't brick one as the game was ending, the Lakers probably steal this one in Denver.
I also think you have to consistently force Jokic into the high action, when you don't run the ball up and down the court and tire his ass out. The issue for the Lakers is they can't run his ass down the court, because their two stars are equally as likely to get gassed coming down the stretch, so it becomes a halfcourt game on both ends, and that game favors Denver, against everyone. Denver lost 3 games this season to Houston, they lost they lost 3 times to Sacramento, they lost 3 times to OKC, etc. Those are young teams that run on you with their young legs. IMO, that's the model and the Lakers just don't have that in the bag.
8-9. For more details on the games and the list, here you go.I wonder what the Lakers record in games this year is when they don't have a FTA advantage.
That's really interested---nice work by you and Steve F!8-9. For more details on the games and the list, here you go.
Thanks man! I appreciate you saving me the work.8-9. For more details on the games and the list, here you go.
You missed a zero, but yeah.
It’s absurd the Lakers blew this game with Russell looking like prime Klay on offense for three quarters, Davis and Lebron pouring points in at an efficient rate, and Murray shooting 9/24.
Arent these the expectations though? I know for myself they were as Denver CLEARLY has another execution gear down the stretch of close games regardless of having multiple bigs who matchup (relatively) fine w Jokic. You can’t double and give up 3, you force as difficult a 2 as possible and hope a couple role out….they you have to hit 3’s on the other end if you’re trailing. If you have the lead you can afford to matchup BUT your 2’s are going to be of much greater difficulty.People are reacting to LA getting only one stop in the last 10 Denver possessions (on a jump-out steal by Lebron no less, which was a great play but not a conventional 'guarding someone and making them miss' sequence).
To the "random heater" part: LA will be in every game this series where good D-Lo shows up, IMO. They don't have a shot with bad G1 D-Lo. I still see this going 5-6 games.
The Lakers offense wasn’t doing anything outstanding in the 1H though either. If not for DAR and AD going nuclear shooting the ball they would have struggled to reach the mid-40’s in the 1H.Yep. The Lakers offense completely stalled in the 2nd half (40 points) Apprehension Central in the halfcourt, barely getting shots off before the 24. Maybe Denver altitude sapped the Bron/AD pick-n-roll by Q4? Dinwiddie/Vincent were no help or energy off the bench. The Lakers have a bunch of clueless defenders in DLo & Prince
We rarely want the Lakers to win but they are creating film on how to slow down the Nuggets' juggernaut. Denver is in for a long playoff run. Minnesota or PHX up next, but hoping LAL gets the League Office to drag this out with a home whistle.
I didn't watch the game but this article says that DEN's switching up on defense (going Gordon on AD and KCP on LBJ) was proximate cause of stopping the LBJ/AD PnR: https://www.denverpost.com/2024/04/23/aaron-gordon-anthony-davis-nuggets-defense-lakers-game-2/Yep. The Lakers offense completely stalled in the 2nd half (40 points) Apprehension Central in the halfcourt, barely getting shots off before the 24. Maybe Denver altitude sapped the Bron/AD pick-n-roll by Q4? Dinwiddie/Vincent were no help or energy off the bench. The Lakers have a bunch of clueless defenders in DLo & Prince
We rarely want the Lakers to win but they are creating film on how to slow down the Nuggets' juggernaut. Denver is in for a long playoff run. Minnesota or PHX up next, but hoping LAL gets the League Office to drag this out with a home whistle.
Tillman is not playing versus DEN if everyone is healthy. It's bad enough that they can put Jokic on Horford but putting Tillman in there means Jokic doesn't have to do anything on defense at all.In the final minutes, the Lakers had Lebron and AD interchangeably on Jokic and Murray— a good tactic, since you know Denver is going to switch constantly anyway. I thought AD contested the final shot from Murray really well— it was a case of "good defense, better offense." LeBron mostly held up on both guys. AD did get pushed around by Jokic a few times in the post— he's just so strong.
Edit: as a Celtics fan watching the ending in mild horror (or at least apprehension), all I can say that CJM better get ready to go offense-defense with KP and Tillman at the end of close games, if we get that far.
I could see potentially putting Tillman on Jokic in very-late-game situations when (a) you have the chance to rotate offense-defense with timeouts and fouls and (b) it comes down to a single possession or two where you really need a stop. What we saw last night is that whoever is defending Jokic is quite likely to get switched onto Murray, so you want someone with as much lateral quickness as possible in that scenario, which points in Tillman's favor over Al at this point in their careers.Tillman is not playing versus DEN if everyone is healthy. It's bad enough that they can put Jokic on Horford but putting Tillman in there means Jokic doesn't have to do anything on defense at all.
Besides, when DEN runs that PnR it's going to be JT on Murray and JB on Jokic.![]()
I don’t know how anyone can watch LeBron’s 4Q performance last night, on both ends of the floor, and conclude that he was gassed. Naturally it’s the 4Q of a playoff game in altitude but even at 40 he looked as fresh if not more fresh than anyone despite carrying much of the offensive load.The problem for LA is that LeBron is too old and Davis has always had a penchant for disappearing late. They are basically a borderline title contender for the first 3 quarters, but they can’t hang in the end. LeBron’s gear last night was super impressive, but he didn’t carry much of the offensive load until then and no way he can sustain it for 6-8 weeks. He was gassed badly in the play-in and Game 1, probably because he was shouldering a bigger load those games in quarters 1-3.
They are one scorer away from being a threat and LeBron ain’t getting any younger, nor can you rely on Davis’s miracle health season like this year moving forward.
Getting way ahead of things, but were it to happen I bet that Tillman gets 10 minutes a game vs Jokic, actually. I hope we get to find out! He got 13 in second regular season game, as a point of reference.Tillman is not playing versus DEN if everyone is healthy. It's bad enough that they can put Jokic on Horford but putting Tillman in there means Jokic doesn't have to do anything on defense at all.
Besides, when DEN runs that PnR it's going to be JT on Murray and JB on Jokic.![]()
The decision CJM has to make - as we've discussed in the past - is yes KP isn't very good guarding Jokic but neither can Jokic run around after KP on the other end either. I mean if you recall, DEN went to Jokic on Jrue in the second game, which is when Jrue hit 3 (IIRC) three pointers).Getting way ahead of things, but were it to happen I bet that Tillman gets 10 minutes a game vs Jokic, actually. I hope we get to find out! He got 13 in second regular season game, as a point of reference.
My observation this year was that KP really struggles hugely against Jokic, and that you need to minimize those minutes - opening few and closing few when not situational offense/defense. Horford is a lot better vs Jokic, but he can't handle (nor do you want rotation-wise) 30 minutes of him vs Jokic.
So something like 20-25 for Horford, 10 for Tillman, and 13-18 for KP would be my guess.
It will be a useful test-case if we get to see Denver vs. OKC, since— by god— there's a team with a stretch 5 but with no big body at all to put on Jokic. The Thunder took 3 of 4 from Denver in the regular season, but one game was by a single point and the other had no Jokic, so let's see...The decision CJM has to make - as we've discussed in the past - is yes KP isn't very good guarding Jokic but neither can Jokic run around after KP on the other end either. I mean if you recall, DEN went to Jokic on Jrue in the second game, which is when Jrue hit 3 (IIRC) three pointers).
Once BOS puts Horford in (Tillman is worse since he's not a 40% shooter from 3P - yet) - Jokic plays Horford, which basically means that Jokic gets to rest on defense. I think Jokic is way better playing Horford than Horford is at playing Jokic so if it were me, I'd see this as a net benefit to DEN.
As others have mentioned, DEN can be so efficient on the offensive end that the way people have to beat them is get out running and hit 3Ps. I think BOS should lean into the KP/Jokic matchup so long as KP isnt in foul trouble. Hopefully over a series it will also serve to diminish Jokic's effectiveness as he has to play a lot harder on defense than usual.
That's really interested---nice work by you and Steve F!
What is league average win % on winning (or losing) FT attempts?
Seriously. To try and pin this loss on Lebron's age is ridiculous. Sure, he is not peak 26 year old best player in the world Lebron. Nobody is. He played good enough to win this game and he didn't looked gassed anymore than anyone elseI don’t know how anyone can watch LeBron’s 4Q performance last night, on both ends of the floor, and conclude that he was gassed. Naturally it’s the 4Q of a playoff game in altitude but even at 40 he looked as fresh if not more fresh than anyone despite carrying much of the offensive load.
I didn’t say any of this. In fact, we are in agreement that he had that gear last night. However, he did not in Game 1, nor the play-in game (can’t blame altitude) and I am highly doubtful he could sustain it for a 25-30 game playoff run.I don’t know how anyone can watch LeBron’s 4Q performance last night, on both ends of the floor, and conclude that he was gassed. Naturally it’s the 4Q of a playoff game in altitude but even at 40 he looked as fresh if not more fresh than anyone despite carrying much of the offensive load.
Seems similar to the Jaylen call against Indy?Also, I mean what are we doing here? Lol boo hoo Lakers and all, but what the fuck?
View: https://twitter.com/vkillem/status/1782621073277956139?s=46&t=11SXTvIYT-tl8b6e7iEUVQ
Apologies for my part. I thought I read where you said he was gassed.Jesus guys, read the post. I was talking about the Lakers problem in general, pointed out LeBron was impressive late last night, but also that 2 of the last 3 games he was gassed late and cannot sustain it for 2 months to carry the Lakers to a title because there isn’t enough help around him, especially given AD disappears late in games.
Young LeBron could maybe carry this team to the finals on his own, but this version cannot. That doesn’t mean it’s his fault! The roster doesn’t have enough.
I didn’t say any of this. In fact, we are in agreement that he had that gear last night. However, he did not in Game 1, nor the play-in game (can’t blame altitude) and I am highly doubtful he could sustain it for a 25-30 game playoff run.
If this year's version of LBJ and AD were supported by last year's version of Rui and Reeves, this would be an entirely different series. Or, if 1 minute of play were deducted for every 500 ft of altitude above sea level. Since neither of these things are in play, Denver should be able to breathe easy for Round 1 anyway.I don't know enough about the science behind it, but you could probably argue playing at elevation was a major issue for LA down the stretch in both games when they gassed out.
The stat that only six Lakers have scored over two games is pretty damning. They are getting basically nothing from their bench, plus almost nothing on offense from Rui. That is an enormous burden on AD/LeBron to be great for 48 minutes.
For every one of these you could have multiple clips of LeBron or AD barely getting touched and getting FTs. This game wasn’t lost on a few non calls.. lakers missed a bunch of shots late and LeBron being almost peak LeBron almost won it for them… he was a beast in the 4th.. his supporting cast just isn’t great.Also, I mean what are we doing here? Lol boo hoo Lakers and all, but what the fuck?
View: https://twitter.com/vkillem/status/1782621073277956139?s=46&t=11SXTvIYT-tl8b6e7iEUVQ
Yea, this game was lost because Lebron missed an open three, Reaves was too much of a pussy to grab the airball by Jokic, and Murray made some incredible shots down the stretchFor every one of these you could have multiple clips of LeBron or AD barely getting touched and getting FTs. This game wasn’t lost on a few non calls.. lakers missed a bunch of shots late and LeBron being almost peak LeBron almost won it for them… he was a beast in the 4th.. his supporting cast just isn’t great.
I’m not saying the refs favored one team or another, I’m just so confused by the calls on reviews. They should probably just get rid of the review if this call and the Lowry call were overturned. I mean what’s the point? It’s a terrible look for the league.For every one of these you could have multiple clips of LeBron or AD barely getting touched and getting FTs. This game wasn’t lost on a few non calls.. lakers missed a bunch of shots late and LeBron being almost peak LeBron almost won it for them… he was a beast in the 4th.. his supporting cast just isn’t great.
I think Jaylen was hit pre-release on the way up?Seems similar to the Jaylen call against Indy?
I accept and embrace your apology, mi amigo.Apologies for my part. I thought I read where you said he was gassed.
I am shocked and surprised that the NBA has been able to make this drastic of an officiating shift in mid-stream. We’ve asked how can we eliminate flopping….I didn’t think we could bc I didn’t think Silver was going to be able to execute this shift but I’ll be damned, he pulled it off!!As lovegtm alluded to, there seems to be a move towards not calling fouls that used to be called fouls if -
1) the contact does not seem to have any (probably should say "does not seem to have that much") effect on the fouled player;
2) the contact, whatever it is, occurs after the shot is released (this probably cost the Celtics 2 games this year);
3) the contact, whatever it is, occurs after the ball was blocked (this probably cost them one, noted above).
I am therefore not surprised that it might not be a foul to whack someone in the face after the shooter has released the ball. I don't really agree that it shouldn't be a foul but this is what we've seen for awhile this year.
Yes. While all the points made repeatedly in this thread are true (the Nuggets being deeper, younger/more athletic, more clutch, etc.) are certainly true, Malone has clearly outcoached Ham over the past year, which has been a significant factor in winning the close games.I didn't watch the game but this article says that DEN's switching up on defense (going Gordon on AD and KCP on LBJ) was proximate cause of stopping the LBJ/AD PnR: https://www.denverpost.com/2024/04/23/aaron-gordon-anthony-davis-nuggets-defense-lakers-game-2/
Aren’t all of these personnel issues and not coaching? Not sure what “gassing” LeBron I’m the 4Q means with the performance he put on. How would the coaching look if Malone’s option off the bench was Dinwiddie while Ham only had to hand the ball to Murray and Jokic to run their two-man game?Yes. While all the points made repeatedly in this thread are true (the Nuggets being deeper, younger/more athletic, more clutch, etc.) are certainly true, Malone has clearly outcoached Ham over the past year, which has been a significant factor in winning the close games.
When LA came out running PnR extensively in the 3rd, Denver tried multiple defenses to stop it before finding the best solution. The point being Malone was constantly adjusting, both with strategy and substitutions. Meanwhile, Ham was gassing Lebron and giving Dinwiddie meaningful minutes in the fourth.
The point the article made was that Ham has Gabe Vincent, who can shoot and has some experience playing against DEN in pressure situations versus Dinwiddie. Ham continues to play Dinwiddie. As I've said, I've not watched the series but it sounds like a suboptimal piece of coaching. Not sure playing Vincent would be better but to me it's hard to keep running someone out there who is -25 in 25 minutes (approximately).Aren’t all of these personnel issues and not coaching? Not sure what “gassing” LeBron I’m the 4Q means with the performance he put on. How would the coaching look if Malone’s option off the bench was Dinwiddie while Ham only had to hand the ball to Murray and Jokic to run their two-man game?
Not to go all thread police, but can we please try to use a different word to express this sentiment?Yea, this game was lost because Lebron missed an open three, Reaves was too much of a
Me too. Honestly, I'm fairly impressed. They had a vision for what they wanted the product to be, and they executed on that vision in an extremely short timeframe.I am shocked and surprised that the NBA has been able to make this drastic of an officiating shift in mid-stream. We’ve asked how can we eliminate flopping….I didn’t think we could bc I didn’t think Silver was going to be able to execute this shift but I’ll be damned, he pulled it off!!
Now that I've gotten used to it, and understand what they're going for, I'm mostly ok with it. As I've mentioned elsewhere, I think it will also be very beneficial for this iteration of the Celtics.As lovegtm alluded to, there seems to be a move towards not calling fouls that used to be called fouls if -
1) the contact does not seem to have any (probably should say "does not seem to have that much") effect on the fouled player;
2) the contact, whatever it is, occurs after the shot is released (this probably cost the Celtics 2 games this year);
3) the contact, whatever it is, occurs after the ball was blocked (this probably cost them one, noted above).
I am therefore not surprised that it might not be a foul to whack someone in the face after the shooter has released the ball. I don't really agree that it shouldn't be a foul but this is what we've seen for awhile this year.
Some part of me wonders if ex-players bent the league’s ear about their unhappiness with being relegated to a dead ball era.Nope, Hield got ball, and then hit Jaylen's head afterwards.
People can dislike it all they want, but the league clearly wants to allow a lot more contact post-shot than what was allowed in the 2000s to present. They decided that games were too high-scoring, that it was hurting the product, and this is the result. From their perspective, it is working imo.
It's both personnel and coaching. As Wade Boggs Chicken Dinner references above, Ham does have Gabe Vincent, who was really good against this same Denver team in the finals last year, at his disposal. He also could have played Reaves more instead of Dinwiddie, but nope. And he took Lebron out towards the end of the 3rd quarter, but put him back in after only one minute of rest. Clearly, it didn't work down the stretch.Aren’t all of these personnel issues and not coaching? Not sure what “gassing” LeBron I’m the 4Q means with the performance he put on. How would the coaching look if Malone’s option off the bench was Dinwiddie while Ham only had to hand the ball to Murray and Jokic to run their two-man game?
Vincent missed the entire season up until the last couple weeks and the only thing more horrific than his numbers was his movement on the floor. Dinwiddie is a better size matchup but no coach is going to look good when these are his two options. I revert back to my original question….how would Malone look with these options when facing the Murray/Jokic PNR? It’s just not coaching in this example.The point the article made was that Ham has Gabe Vincent, who can shoot and has some experience playing against DEN in pressure situations versus Dinwiddie. Ham continues to play Dinwiddie. As I've said, I've not watched the series but it sounds like a suboptimal piece of coaching. Not sure playing Vincent would be better but to me it's hard to keep running someone out there who is -25 in 25 minutes (approximately).
Absolutely. My bad.Not to go all thread police, but can we please try to use a different word to express this sentiment?
Exactly. Complaining about Ham's coaching is fine, but using not playing Gabe Vincent enough minutes isn't the rationale you're looking for. Lakers are down Wood, Reddish and Vanderbilt also, which really depletes their length and athleticism off the bench.Vincent missed the entire season up until the last couple weeks and the only thing more horrific than his numbers was his movement on the floor. Dinwiddie is a better size matchup but no coach is going to look good when these are his two options. I revert back to my original question….how would Malone look with these options when facing the Murray/Jokic PNR? It’s just not coaching in this example.
I would laugh at Lakers whining about calls, if I didn't know they were sending a direct signal to Adam Silver that they are owed a game.
A successful and longstanding Lakers tradition!I would laugh at Lakers whining about calls, if I didn't know they were sending a direct signal to Adam Silver that they are owed a game.
LAL win and pushes the series. Denver heavily relies on their TOP5, we want them beat to hell by the FinalsPhilosophical question.
Root for Denver to shiv the Lakers with a semi mortal 3-0 series lead
Or
Hope LAL wins and push the series.
I'm in shiv and bury the LAL asap camp
On the other hand if Boston doesn't make the finals, I'd rather see Denver there than LA.If you want the Celtics to win a banner you want Denver out. LAL won’t win 4 of the next 5 but it would be ideal for Denver to play as many games as possible.
LAL losing is always a good thing. There are other teams in the west that can/will push DenverPhilosophical question.
Root for Denver to shiv the Lakers with a semi mortal 3-0 series lead
Or
Hope LAL wins and push the series.
I'm in shiv and bury the LAL asap camp