2024 NBA Draft

[Auger34]

Surprised this hasn't been updated after yesterday.

The Hawks, shockingly, won the lottery. The consensus seems to be that they will take Alex Sarr, a 19 year old Frenchman who is 7'1. Sarr basically has no offensive game, other than rim running, and is definitely not a prototypical #1 pick.

Other notes;
-The Rockets got the #3 pick, a pick they acquired from Brooklyn in the James Harden trade.
-The Spurs have two top 8 picks (#4 and #8). My guess is they will go Dillingham or Clingan and BPA (maybe Topic or Knecht)

 

[Jimbodandy]

Surprised this hasn't been updated after yesterday.

The Hawks, shockingly, won the lottery. The consensus seems to be that they will take Alex Sarr, a 19 year old Frenchman who is 7'1. Sarr basically has no offensive game, other than rim running, and is definitely not a prototypical #1 pick.

Other notes;
-The Rockets got the #3 pick, a pick they acquired from Brooklyn in the James Harden trade.
-The Spurs have two top 8 picks (#4 and #8). My guess is they will go Dillingham or Clingan and BPA (maybe Topic or Knecht)

It's fascinating to me how much variety there is in the rankings. Of course maybe that starts to normalize now that we know who's picking where, but it's pretty wild outside of the top 2.

 

[SteveF]

Atlanta should probably at least explore how many future mediocre* first round picks they can get out of OKC for the #1 overall pick. OKC has been willing to lose value to make draft pick consolidation trades because of the roster issues.

*I say mediocre because that's mainly all OKC has at this point. It's mostly volume.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Atlanta should probably at least explore how many future mediocre* first round picks they can get out of OKC for the #1 overall pick. OKC has been willing to lose value to make draft pick consolidation trades because of the roster issues.

*I say mediocre because that's mainly all OKC has at this point. It's mostly volume.

I don’t think any GM is doing that kind of trade even in a bad draft year. You need some real near-term assets. Of course, it all depends on the Trae Young stuff. There are a lot of different directions this franchise could go in.

 

[Tony C]

It's fascinating to me how much variety there is in the rankings. Of course maybe that starts to normalize now that we know who's picking where, but it's pretty wild outside of the top 2.

Even including the top 2. I saw Risacher as #1 on someone's board, and then just saw Hollinger listing him as #13 on his top 20.

 

[Kliq]

It just really sucks that this draft seems to lack elite talent. Especially with teams closer to playoff contention landing higher picks, would be really fascinating to see how they weigh taking a top player or trading the pick for a more proven commodity.

I do like Dalton Knecht for one of these better teams, I think he would be great on the Rockets.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

Trading out of the high lottery is the right idea, and should be explored

There are always some NBA owners and some NBA GMs who make bad decisions at draft time, and who fall in love with the idea of making a splashy move. Especially if this gives GMs a reason not to be fired for another 12 months, with the costs coming down the road, potentially on someone else's watch.

I criticized him for plenty of other things, but this was where Ainge was at his best. Taking advantage of desperate and/or stupid

 

[nattysez]

Shams says Bronny is staying in the draft.
https://theathletic.com/5489626/2024/05/13/bronny-james-nba-draft-combine?source=user-shared-article

All indications are that he'll be a Thanasis-level pro barring a massive developmental leap once he joins the league.

If NO doesn't take LA's pick, LA drafts 17 and 55. Wasting 17 on Bronny would be a mistake, but given how bad this draft is, probably not a fatal one. They'd likely love NO to take #17 so they could get out of that obligation and wait until 55 to take Bronny.

 

[InstaFace]

Surprised this hasn't been updated after yesterday.

The Hawks, shockingly, won the lottery. The consensus seems to be that they will take Alex Sarr, a 19 year old Frenchman who is 7'1. Sarr basically has no offensive game, other than rim running, and is definitely not a prototypical #1 pick.

I've seen Sarr mocked first lots of places and I still don't get it. Are 7-foot young Frenchmen the new market inefficiency? He looks to me like he's got Anthony Bennett level downside there.

edit: I will say, he's clearly got a good motor and his footwork isn't bad for his size.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd2_bZhDB60



Obviously you don't have to be Victor Wembanyama to be worth a #1 pick, but who was the last defense-first #1 pick? Ben Simmons in 2016? And even he wasn't defense-only, that kinda came later.

 

[Kliq]

Imagine signing up for the LeBron/Bronny circus? A team would have to be just completely desperate to do that.

 

[the moops]

Imagine signing up for the LeBron/Bronny circus? A team would have to be just completely desperate to do that.

There would be probably 30 teams that would sign up for that.

 

[nattysez]

The Lakers will do it. AD will be 32 and they have almost no tradable assets. They've got the remainder of AD's contract to make this work before they blow it up.

 

[Cellar-Door]

As a note on Bronny/LeBron..... LeBron has pretty significantly changed his tune on the idea he's going to go to whatever team drafts Bronny. Pretty sure in part because it sure seemed like Bronny was not a fan of the idea.

If a team is drafting Bronny thinking they'll get LeBron any time soon...... they're probably going to be disappointed

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Surprised this hasn't been updated after yesterday.

The Hawks, shockingly, won the lottery. The consensus seems to be that they will take Alex Sarr, a 19 year old Frenchman who is 7'1. Sarr basically has no offensive game, other than rim running, and is definitely not a prototypical #1 pick.

Other notes;
-The Rockets got the #3 pick, a pick they acquired from Brooklyn in the James Harden trade.
-The Spurs have two top 8 picks (#4 and #8). My guess is they will go Dillingham or Clingan and BPA (maybe Topic or Knecht)

A lot of talk about the Spurs one or both of their lottery picks being packaged as part of a Trae Young deal. I love that fit for Trae and the Spurs. He gives them the ballhandler, backcourt scorer and distributor that they sorely lack and his defensive liability will more than be mitigated by having Wemby in the paint….it can actually benefit the Spurs once they get all the timings down.

 

[Kliq]

As a note on Bronny/LeBron..... LeBron has pretty significantly changed his tune on the idea he's going to go to whatever team drafts Bronny. Pretty sure in part because it sure seemed like Bronny was not a fan of the idea.

If a team is drafting Bronny thinking they'll get LeBron any time soon...... they're probably going to be disappointed

Right, like if the Hornets draft Bronny, is LeBron really going to go to Charlotte, or a similar level-team?

If you draft Bronny, with the goal of luring LeBron, you also better have a pretty good surrounding cast with at least one other All-NBA-level player to compliment LeBron, if you are serious about trying to be a relevant team this year. Then you also need to have a coach that LeBron is cool with. Then you have the drama of how much Bronny is playing, etc. It would be a complete circus and only the most irrelevant, desperate for attention teams should be considering it.

 

[Jimbodandy]

It would honestly be shocking at this point if anyone drafts Bronny besides the Lakers.

 

[nattysez]

No one is drafting Bronny "in hopes of" getting LBJ. LeBron is an unrestricted free agent. Any team considering drafting Bronny to get LeBron will do so with an oral agreement from LeBron that he'll join them if they draft Bronny. It's going to be LA.

A lot of talk about the Spurs one or both of their lottery picks being packaged as part of a Trae Young deal. I love that fit for Trae and the Spurs. He gives them the ballhandler, backcourt scorer and distributor that they sorely lack and his defensive liability will more than be mitigated by having Wemby in the paint….it can actually benefit the Spurs once they get all the timings down.

If this draft is as bad as everyone says it is, I'm not convinced 2024 draft picks are going to move the needle very much in a deal. That said, Trae is kind of damaged goods at this point since he seems a little hard to get along with and his contract is massive, so maybe 2024 picks are enough. It would be very typical of the Hawks to amass high draft picks in an awful draft.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I agree Bronny is not, on his own merits, getting drafted in first round.

I do think his strange Freshman year---which, remember, started with that heart condition and missed time - ensures he can only be Thanassis. He still has some NBA role player potential, imo, and is super young. Thanassis to me has always been a non-prospect and 'thanks bro' roster fodder. Bronny, percentage wise, probably will be too but there's at least a path to more, imo. Albeit a path far more likely if he stays in college to develop....

 

[Auger34]

I agree Bronny is not, on his own merits, getting drafted in first round.

I do think his strange Freshman year---which, remember, started with that heart condition and missed time - ensures he can only be Thanassis. He still has some NBA role player potential, imo, and is super young. Thanassis to me has always been a non-prospect and 'thanks bro' roster fodder. Bronny, percentage wise, probably will be too but there's at least a path to more, imo. Albeit a path far more likely if he stays in college to develop....

I don't know if Bronny will ever amount to anything but he's a better prospect than Thanassis ever was. Before the heart condition, DraftXpress had him as the 9th pick.

I think it was a dumb move to stay in the draft on his part, but he definitely has the ability to be drafted as a high 2nd round pick and might contribute something.

Thanassis is a 0 that is only in the NBA because of Giannis

 

[kazuneko]

It would honestly be shocking at this point if anyone drafts Bronny besides the Lakers.

Not sure I understand why that would be shocking. Why wouldn’t multiple teams be interested in messing up any plans LA has of drafting him?
Even if LeBron is not likely to sign with a particular team the fact that any team that might have a legit shot would value Bronny means that -if nothing else- he’d have trade value for any team that selects him. If we are talking about a second round pick, for example, wouldn’t that make Bronny immediately more valuable than most other 2nd round pick options? If nothing else couldn’t you swap two future equivalent 2nd round picks for him, and wouldn’t that make him immediately worth twice the value of his cost?

 

[Kliq]

I don't know if Bronny will ever amount to anything but he's a better prospect than Thanassis ever was. Before the heart condition, DraftXpress had him as the 9th pick.

I think it was a dumb move to stay in the draft on his part, but he definitely has the ability to be drafted as a high 2nd round pick and might contribute something.

Thanassis is a 0 that is only in the NBA because of Giannis

Thanasis becoming a literal mascot for the Bucks in recent years has kind of undermined his career. He is only in the NBA right now because of Giannis, no question about it, but he also grinded for a long time. He was a good G-League player who got cups of coffee with some NBA teams, and then went back overseas, playing well in the Spanish league and then for Greek Eurobasket power Panathinaikos before getting another chance in the NBA. He isn't the first raw athlete to get some chances in the NBA.

Bronny really only has those high rankings from his HS days as his real credibility of being a potential NBA player. And a lot of that you can't trust that much because you have to wonder what that ranking really means and how much of it is to generate clicks and content. A number of SoCal basketball people didn't think that highly of him, he played on a loaded HS team and wasn't close to being its best player. And he has shown very little in college (not his fault due to the heart condition) but there is almost no proof he is an NBA prospect and its really uncharitable for him to remain in the draft.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Bronny could be a late 1st on his merits. He was a late teens to mid-20s ranked HS prospect who barely played because of a medical issue. He comps similarly to Jordan Walsh in terms of prospect and year 1 struggles (Walsh went 38), Hood-Schifino played more and a little better, went 17th, 2020 class had Max Christie (went 35),

Bronny isn't an unreasonable pick late 1st early 2nd, he fits the profile of guys who go in that range.

 

[Auger34]

Thanasis becoming a literal mascot for the Bucks in recent years has kind of undermined his career. He is only in the NBA right now because of Giannis, no question about it, but he also grinded for a long time. He was a good G-League player who got cups of coffee with some NBA teams, and then went back overseas, playing well in the Spanish league and then for Greek Eurobasket power Panathinaikos before getting another chance in the NBA. He isn't the first raw athlete to get some chances in the NBA.

Bronny really only has those high rankings from his HS days as his real credibility of being a potential NBA player. And a lot of that you can't trust that much because you have to wonder what that ranking really means and how much of it is to generate clicks and content. A number of SoCal basketball people didn't think that highly of him, he played on a loaded HS team and wasn't close to being its best player. And he has shown very little in college (not his fault due to the heart condition) but there is almost no proof he is an NBA prospect and its really uncharitable for him to remain in the draft.

I mean, those rankings from his HS days are kind of what we have to go on right?

He had a heart condition that took up basically his entire freshman year. He's been cleared now and, hypothetically, he should improve and get better with the ability to work out now.

 

[Auger34]

Even including the top 2. I saw Risacher as #1 on someone's board, and then just saw Hollinger listing him as #13 on his top 20.

I just looked at Hollinger's board. Holy shit, that is terrible. John continues to confound anytime he "evaluates" anything

 

[OCST]

Boban is just a big doofus dude.

Zach Edey is going to be a 2x NCAA national player of the year.

…. in an NCAA that has been bled dry of talent and is a shell of what it once was.

I could see him going either way, just saying that the POY is devalued due to the dilution of the player pool.

 

[BaseballJones]

…. in an NCAA that has been bled dry of talent and is a shell of what it once was.

I could see him going either way, just saying that the POY is devalued due to the dilution of the player pool.

You may be right but he scored 37 on UConn who had one of the best (maybe THE best) defensive centers in college basketball in Clingan.

 

[TomRicardo]

Bronny could be a late 1st on his merits. He was a late teens to mid-20s ranked HS prospect who barely played because of a medical issue. He comps similarly to Jordan Walsh in terms of prospect and year 1 struggles (Walsh went 38), Hood-Schifino played more and a little better, went 17th, 2020 class had Max Christie (went 35),

Bronny isn't an unreasonable pick late 1st early 2nd, he fits the profile of guys who go in that range.

Bronny would not be a terrible pick for the Celtics in the back end of the first round. He is a 6'4" Guard who can pass well, shoot 3s, and play D. He is going to need some time to bake in Maine but he has a Derrick White ceiling. If the heat were picking further back say the 20s, he is the kind of player that could really grow under Spoelstra.

 

[DJnVa]

I've seen Sarr mocked first lots of places and I still don't get it. Are 7-foot young Frenchmen the new market inefficiency? He looks to me like he's got Anthony Bennett level downside there.

 

[JakeRae]

Trading out of the high lottery is the right idea, and should be explored

There are always some NBA owners and some NBA GMs who make bad decisions at draft time, and who fall in love with the idea of making a splashy move. Especially if this gives GMs a reason not to be fired for another 12 months, with the costs coming down the road, potentially on someone else's watch.

I criticized him for plenty of other things, but this was where Ainge was at his best. Taking advantage of desperate and/or stupid

If this draft is as bad as everyone says, won’t lottery picks potentially hold negative value? Lottery dollars to non lottery talent isn’t really something most teams are going to be looking to commit to.

 

[lovegtm]

If this draft is as bad as everyone says, won’t lottery picks potentially hold negative value? Lottery dollars to non lottery talent isn’t really something most teams are going to be looking to commit to.

This is what I was wondering too. The rookie scale for top picks isn't cheap, at all.

 

[Cellar-Door]

If this draft is as bad as everyone says, won’t lottery picks potentially hold negative value? Lottery dollars to non lottery talent isn’t really something most teams are going to be looking to commit to.

Doubt it. Even drafts considered very weak pre-draft can get you big time players.
2020 was called a very weak class, basically all the same stuff as this year (worst since 2013, etc. etc.).... two of the top 3 are stars, the #12 pick is a max player, solid contributors scattered through the 1st round. A bunch of misses too, but that's the draft.

 

[bakahump]

A lot of talk about the Spurs one or both of their lottery picks being packaged as part of a Trae Young deal. I love that fit for Trae and the Spurs. He gives them the ballhandler, backcourt scorer and distributor that they sorely lack and his defensive liability will more than be mitigated by having Wemby in the paint….it can actually benefit the Spurs once they get all the timings down.

Would you do that? Basically leaving the Hawks with 3 top ten picks in a "Historically bad" (i dont know if it is or not...but being talked like it is isnt a glowing endorsement).

That sounds like a plan for not quite mediocrity.

Wouldnt the hawks be better off looking for something (couple of firsts) 2025 and on?

 

[Buster Olney the Lonely]

The Hawks could get one of the firsts back from San Antonio in the Murray deal (2025 or 2027). I don’t think there are any protections attached to either of those.

 

[nattysez]

The Hawks could get one of the firsts back from San Antonio in the Murray deal (2025 or 2027). I don’t think there are any protections attached to either of those.

Oooh - that's an interesting idea. I assume the Hawks keep Dejounte in these trade-Trae scenarios? Or do they trade him too and strip the whole thing down for parts?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

It would honestly be shocking at this point if anyone drafts Bronny besides the Lakers.

It really depends on his showing at the Combine and his workouts. He never really had a chance last season jumping into the season as a freshman after being inactive for months and maybe be on some type of meds that could affect his game. I’d guess scouts aren’t putting much weight on his results under those conditions if he looks like he did coming out of HS at the Combine and in workouts.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

If this draft is as bad as everyone says, won’t lottery picks potentially hold negative value? Lottery dollars to non lottery talent isn’t really something most teams are going to be looking to commit to.

So, full disclosure: I've spent close to zero time watching draft prospects and don't have any independent point of view of the merits of who is going to be available where

And, in the scenario where the consensus that this draft is really week is correct, then yes. Well-run franchises will try to trade down or out, and convert the asset to an asset that's worth more.

How many well run franchises are there out there? How many are in the lottery?

What I'm proposing is more or less What Ainge did when he traded the #5 pick in 2007 (for Ray Allen) rather than take Yi Jianlian, Corey Brewer, Brandan Wright, or Jeff Green.

He converted an asset that other front offices overvalued for something better

 

[Cellar-Door]

So, full disclosure: I've spent close to zero time watching draft prospects and don't have any independent point of view of the merits of who is going to be available where

And, in the scenario where the consensus that this draft is really week is correct, then yes. Well-run franchises will try to trade down or out, and convert the asset to an asset that's worth more.

How many well run franchises are there out there? How many are in the lottery?

What I'm proposing is more or less What Ainge did when he traded the #5 pick in 2007 (for Ray Allen) rather than take Yi Jianlian, Corey Brewer, Brandan Wright, or Jeff Green.

He converted an asset that other front offices overvalued for something better

A counter argument would be that if you are a good franchise, you may be better at identifying and developing talent, and so maybe getting into the lottery at a lower price than usual is a smart move.

I don't really see the 2007 parallel, that was considered a very strong draft, the Celtics traded #5 and a bunch of salary relief for an aging star to make a run, I don't know how many stars are available for just a early (but not top 3) pick this year. If consensus is that a draft is very weak, then the picks are less likely to bring big returns. Part of why 2007 worked is because it was a good draft and people thought there were stars available as late as 6 or 7 (amusingly Presti took a lot of shit for going for Jeff Green who people thought would be.... basically what he was a 15-17ppg sub-All Star who played forever instead of the POTENTIAL SUPERSTAR YI JIANLIAN).
If consensus is that the draft is weak, you likely don't get great value trading out, because most of the league thinks like you do that they can get the same type of prospect later, and you don't get the necessary competition to get good pricing.

 

[SteveF]

Russillo asked around the league about the best player you could get for the #1 overall pick, and the general consensus was the 4th/5th starter on a good team. Simmons offered up the name Lou Dort, and Russillo agreed that that's about the quality of player the people in the league were talking about.

Now, you only need one team to make a deal. So who knows!

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Yikes - that is not a lot of value for the number one pick!

Other draft-related item I had forgotten: NOLA right now has Laker's 17th pick, but can return it and defer the Laker's pick they receive until next year (which presumably they will, right?)

 

[Sam Ray Not]

In the latest Simmons-Russillo chat, RR says his front office contacts rate this draft anywhere from "top guy would be #4 in an average draft" (the most glowing appraisal) to "top guy would be #10 in an average draft." He goes on to conjecture that the #1 pick in this draft might fetch something along the lines of the fourth best starter on an average team. (Edit: d'oh, what SteveF said).

Meanwhile, in the SRN household, there is relief that the Warriors' pick from the 2019 Iguodala salary dump — that IIRC you guys owned for a bit — has finally conveyed, and in a coulda-been-much-worse manner. Ws now own all their FR picks going forward (except for the #21-30 portion of the 2030 first-rounder, if for whatever reason they end up a top 10 team that year).

 

[AlNipper49]

Yikes - that is not a lot of value for the number one pick!

Other draft-related item I had forgotten: NOLA right now has Laker's 17th pick, but can return it and defer the Laker's pick they receive until next year (which presumably they will, right?)

They have too many players as it is. I can't see a way, particularly in this draft, that they do not defer. The #17 in a crap draft is effectively worthless.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

If consensus is that the draft is weak, you likely don't get great value trading out, because most of the league thinks like you do that they can get the same type of prospect later, and you don't get the necessary competition to get good pricing.

I guess the way I see it is that a version of efficient markets pricing theory doesn't usually have much explanatory power when it comes to the NBA draft

The value of prospects is perceived differently by different teams, GMs that are afraid of getting fired make short-sighted decisions, owners who are bad at judging talent decide they're going to be the ones to make draft picks, etc. etc.

Lots of people who knew what they were talking about thought beforehand that the 2007 was a lousy draft once you got past the top of the lottery. I was one of them, as were others posting here at the time. There was much wailing and gnashing of teeth in the Port Cellar when we got the 5th pick in what was seen as a four-player draft. And looking back over those draft results now, the only player outside the top 4 who really significantly exceeded our expectations was Joakim Noah

In most drafts, and also in week drafts, some teams will have a strong desire to trade in or trade up, for reasons. If you're a team that can afford to take a longer view, you can take advantage of those teams by selling high on something they overvalue

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

It would honestly be shocking at this point if anyone drafts Bronny besides the Lakers.

If Bronny is there at 54, I'd love to see the Clippers trade into the pick and take him 1 ahead of the Lakers.

 

[the moops]

I just looked at Hollinger's board. Holy shit, that is terrible. John continues to confound anytime he "evaluates" anything

This year is such a crapshoot that I think just about every expert is gonna be terribly wrong. At least Hollinger is willing to offer his own take and not just parrot what most other draft boards look like

 

[SteveF]

Hard to get better at talent evaluation unless you go on record and hold yourself accountable and then figure out where you went wrong. I have a lot of respect for the people who try to do it, whether they be John Hollinger or a prolific patriots board SOSH poster like SMU (on the football side of things).

 

[Jimbodandy]

This year is such a crapshoot that I think just about every expert is gonna be terribly wrong. At least Hollinger is willing to offer his own take and not just parrot what most other draft boards look like

Agreed that this year is a crapshoot. And for that reason, I'm not sure how anyone could parrot what the other draft boards look like.

Good on Hollinger for having his own methodology and sticking with it. But if he's trying to predict what will actually happen in this draft, I wouldn't be surprised if he's as far off as his pro projections often are.

 

[Kliq]

Yeah the board has wild variances, and there are also a lot of overseas prospects that are getting serious looks in the lottery, where there is naturally less familiarity with their games as well. It's hard to rip anyone for their draft boards, unless you've ton a ton of analysis yourself and can argue why certain prospects should be ranked higher or lower.

The general belief is the draft is short on franchise-cornerstone players, which is bad for your Wizards/Pistons of the world that are really in need of that kind of player. However, most analysts I've seen are bullish on the depth and quality of role players in this draft. For that reason, and particularly with teams like Atlanta and Houston with top picks, you might see a lot more "drafting for fit" than you normally would see in the Top 10. Without a potential all-star talent on the board, teams will be looking at players that will fit in with their existing talent.

 

[lovegtm]

No team would sign any of these guys for the MLE if they were free agents, right? Because that's roughly what you have to pay the top pick.

 

[the moops]

No team would sign any of these guys for the MLE if they were free agents, right? Because that's roughly what you have to pay the top pick.

I would probably prefer to take a chance on some of these kids at MLE money rather than some of last year MLE signings like Schroder and Vincent and Ingles

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Bronny measures 6’-1.5” w/o shoes at today’s combine. Ouch. Would LeBron — even given his elite athleticism, skill, and hoops IQ — have made the NBA at that size?