The perception of Verdugo (5 years of control) was much higher than you’re remembering.
2024 MLB Offseason News
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
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I remember the perception of Verdugo. Paredes is a 3-4 win player; Verdugo was not that. People may have hoped he would grow into that, but he definitely had not established himself to be anything close to that.
Verdugo was a better regarded prospect who had just posted an above average line at age 23 with 5 years of control. Paredes has always been considered a "bad body" guy whose aging curve had more risk than normal (he's thick and not very twitchy, so the fear is a loss of athleticism as he ages will make him unable to make his approach work). Hasn't happened yet, and may never, but that's always been the concern.
I was using fWAR, which had him at 2. Also one season. bWAR has always been a bigger fan of Verdugos defense throughout his entire career.
Paredes has been between 2.5 and 4 wins by both bWAR and fWAR for three years in a row. Its pretty safe bet as to what he is at this point. You could even put more value on Verdugo's 5 years of control or project him (in 2019) to be a better player going forward than Paredes today, but Paredes has a very clear baseline over a substantial sample that Verdugo just did not have at the time. That was really all I was saying.
Yeah, maybe I’m being petty, but I’m hoping the Astros get the same avalanche of garbage that the Red Sox got for trading Mookie.
the analogy is apt. The same question can be asked:
if you’re a big market team and you’re not extending Betts/Tucker, then what exactly the f$@% are you doing?
Houston fans should be livid, it’s a signal that the next couple years will likely suck for them
Prior to the Mookie trade, the Dodgers had spent a year trying to convince Cleveland that Verdugo was a worthy centerpiece in a trade for Francisco Lindor. Fortunately, Chris Antonetti is better at his job than Chaim Bloom was… I probably get more of them wrong than right, but I was always nervous Cleveland would settle for Verdugo's high floor with no real plus talent.
https://x.com/MLBDeadlineNews/status/1867597810398638366
Bohm to 3B, Devers to 1B? Sign me up! He'd kill it in Fenway and has improved at the corner defensively.
Okay, I'll bite. Who would the Red Sox be sending in Kyle Tucker's place here? (Not disagreeing with you, BTW, I like Bohm a lot)
Heavy grain of salt on the source:
View: https://twitter.com/mikedeportes/status/1867797754287943837
View: https://twitter.com/mikedeportes/status/1867797754287943837
Is Houston a "big market team"? I mean, yeah, Houston is a large city, big population, etc but are they that sort of baseball market? It was barely a decade ago that the team executed one of the most blatant firesale, burn-it-to-the-ground rebuilds in history, losing 100+ three years in a row in order to lay the foundation for their run of success. Has the fanbase become that entitled and unforgiving after tolerating that so relatively recently?
I don't disagree that trading Tucker might be their equivalent to trading Mookie (star OF with a year of control left), but this is also a franchise that let stars like Springer and Correa and Bregman (possibly) walk with only a draft pick compensation and no one really batted an eye.
They’re the fourth largest market in the US, so I’m not sure how much larger it can get. (It’s never going to be NY, LA or Chicago)
I’m unsure what you mean about an “entitled fanbase”? If the Astros are ripping the team down to the studs, why are they doing it? Trading Tucker, instead of building around him is not a great look for a team with Houston’s resources.
Fans are allowed to be pissed when a team gets rid of a cornerstone piece, that came up through the farm system. It’s not entitlement to want to watch a player you enjoy.
The boom-bust cycle sucks and sure it’s fun when it works, but the Astros are the anomaly and there’s no guarantee that it’ll work again.
I’m unsure what you mean about an “entitled fanbase”? If the Astros are ripping the team down to the studs, why are they doing it? Trading Tucker, instead of building around him is not a great look for a team with Houston’s resources.
Fans are allowed to be pissed when a team gets rid of a cornerstone piece, that came up through the farm system. It’s not entitlement to want to watch a player you enjoy.
The boom-bust cycle sucks and sure it’s fun when it works, but the Astros are the anomaly and there’s no guarantee that it’ll work again.
Tucker is basically Houston’s Mookie. No excuse not to pay his market rate. They’re building around Yordan whose knees are iffy longterm. Altuve turns 35 in May. Feels like Houston is roughly where Sox were in 2019. Yordan would get a sizable package given his contract. Wonder if Houston would consider moving him as well and just going full rebuild.
I've seen some wildly optimistic takes in my time, but this from Passan may take the cake. Am I crazy?
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/42967283/acquiring-left-hander-jeffrey-springs-rays
They were 39-37 from July 1 and added Severino and Springs now, so maybe it's not ludicrous?
Dahhhhh damn yeah I was hoping for Sugano in what most are calling the "Buehler role" for the Sox...1/13 or 2/25 or whatever. Very little downside. Terrific signing for the O's I think. Damn. I'll turn my hopes to actual Walker Buehler now, I guess.
Well it's unlikely to get higher when he gets here, and as is that would have been second lowest among 150+ inning starters (and first was Austin Gomber, who only beat it due to pitching half his games at altitude in Colorado).
He didn't walk anyone I guess, but did Baltimore just spend $13m on an Uwasawa?
On average it is lower, dunno about that much lower (Sugano's career K/9 is better at about 7.7 rather than 2024's 6.4), but anyway NPB pitchers almost always experience jumps in their K rates when they move to MLB. The games are just that different; as @BigSoxFan and a few others can tell you, NPB is an extremely contact oriented game. So between all the slappy swings, and the 2-3 sac bunts a game, K rates are suppressed here.
It is in fact very likely to get higher in MLB; see above. And check the stats for any big name Japanese pitchers you can think of before & after -- K-rates nearly always go up once they arrive in MLB.
EDIT: this is from a post I made in August 2023 so the #'s won't still be exact but to illustrate the point:
K/9's in NPB --> MLB
Darvish 8.9 --> 10.7
Tanaka 8.0 --> 8.5
Senga 10.3 --> 10.8
Kikuchi 8.0 --> 8.9
Iwakuma 6.9 --> 7.3
Ohtani 10.3 --> 11.4
etc
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Yeah for sure, it doesn't look great in general, agreed. I would need to check if K's were down leaguewide or if he was just purposely pitching to contact this year since it was evident early on that the ball was mush. NPB is having an extreme dead ball era so we shouldn't make too much of the ERA either.
But still, I think it's a good signing for the O's. No real downside.
I watched him pitch live this summer and came away impressed. Trying to think of a reasonable comp and thinking someone like Cardinals Jeff Suppan, if things work out. If they don’t, it’ll probably be like…Red Sox Jeff Suppan.
I'll say it here instead: I don't get what the Astros are doing. You trade away your best player and then turn around and try to trade for this guy? Why not just keep Tucker?
Crazy - though the signs of bad management were there when they spent $90M on Hader when they already had Pressly and Abreu at the back end of their bullpen
They had an insane run which wasn't going to last forever, but their owner Jim Crane got a big head and decided he could essentially do things himself and didn't need a GM, in 2022 sometime. There is a good rundown on it here:
https://orangefire.substack.com/p/jim-crane-is-the-pivotal-man-steering
https://orangefire.substack.com/p/jim-crane-is-the-pivotal-man-steering
yeah didn’t they pivot away from analytics and embraced old school voices like Bagwell who hate analytics?
And Reggie Jackson!
(I obviously love Reggie for his heroics in pinstripes, but I do not think you want him anywhere near personnel decisions)
Presumably the Cards would have eaten quite a bit of the money?
Tucker's arb # is likely going to be a ton plus it must have seemed like they weren't going to be able to keep him long term. Tucker getting Soto money doesn't seem realistic but something like 10/400 does.
Tucker missed a lot of last season and HOU was only 38-38 with him starting, 50-35 with him not in there.
Maybe that's deceptive and he was certainly awesome in the half season he played (4.7 bWAR!!) but moving his final season for a hefty return doesn't mean they're not trying to compete, especially with no powerhouses in their division (arguably in the whole league).
Maybe that's deceptive and he was certainly awesome in the half season he played (4.7 bWAR!!) but moving his final season for a hefty return doesn't mean they're not trying to compete, especially with no powerhouses in their division (arguably in the whole league).
Crane sounds like a meddling fool, but a soft reboot for Houston isn't unreasonable. One year of Tucker, who they weren't going to resign, for a decent haul. Three years of Arenado who is declining, but can still play 3B pretty well and who has a decent swing for Minute Maid Park, instead of committing six or seven or more years to Bregman, who might also be slowly declining. It looks like they're keeping Framber for his last year. Maybe he's the guy they try to resign after this next season.
Glad Arenado turned them down. I hope all their plans fail miserably. But I don't think you need to squint very hard to see what they're trying to do.
Glad Arenado turned them down. I hope all their plans fail miserably. But I don't think you need to squint very hard to see what they're trying to do.
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Heh. Sounds like Arenado wants to see what happens with some of his preferred choices before considering Houston. Good. Fuck the Astros.
I guess I get it if the Astros' plan is to get a bunch of RH pull hitters to take advantage of Minute Maid. I still don't like it, but I will concede that when the Mariners are your main competition you can get away with some sub-optimal decision-making.
Michael Lorenzen and his agent are cooking up a plan: get him hired by a tanking club, get him the requisite 20 games as a position player or DH with at least 3 PA per game to get him qualified as a two way player (that classification will last through 2026), then trade him as a pitcher that doesn't count against the 13 pitcher limit.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6005197/2024/12/19/michael-lorenzen-two-way-player?source=user-shared-article
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6005197/2024/12/19/michael-lorenzen-two-way-player?source=user-shared-article