2024 MLB Offseason News
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
Cleveland hero David Fry will miss at least a couple of months, if not the entire season, following elbow surgery. Supposedly he first hurt it sometime around June (went he went from being Barry Bonds to cratering), must have either played through it or made it worse in the playoffs.
View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1853558700646301985?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1853558700646301985%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
QOs and my best guesses:
Juan Soto (Yankees) DECLINE
Corbin Burnes (Orioles) DECLINE
Alex Bregman (Astros) DECLINE
Max Fried (Braves) DECLINE
Willy Adames (Brewers) DECLINE
Pete Alonso (Mets) DECLINE
Anthony Santander (Orioles) DECLINE
Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) DECLINE
Nick Pivetta (Red Sox) ACCEPT
Christian Walker (Diamondbacks) DECLINE
Sean Manaea (Mets) ACCEPT
Luis Severino (Mets) ACCEPT
Nick Martinez (Reds) ACCEPT
QOs and my best guesses:
Juan Soto (Yankees) DECLINE
Corbin Burnes (Orioles) DECLINE
Alex Bregman (Astros) DECLINE
Max Fried (Braves) DECLINE
Willy Adames (Brewers) DECLINE
Pete Alonso (Mets) DECLINE
Anthony Santander (Orioles) DECLINE
Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) DECLINE
Nick Pivetta (Red Sox) ACCEPT
Christian Walker (Diamondbacks) DECLINE
Sean Manaea (Mets) ACCEPT
Luis Severino (Mets) ACCEPT
Nick Martinez (Reds) ACCEPT
Manaea had a nice year but I don't think he's had the consistency over the last three years to make teams want to give up a pick for him.
fair but if people buy into the arm slot adjustment being his panacea (intentional lol), then the amazing performance after the adjustment will carry a lot of weight. Only takes one or two.
If Christian Walker is happy in Arizona, he should probably take it. A 34-year-old, good-but-not-great first baseman seems like the sort of free agent whose market will collapse with a draft penalty attached to him.
The Yankees called his bluff and Cole came crawling back, saying he’ll accept the contract he opted-out of.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2024/11/04/gerrit-cole-contract-yankees-opt-out-brian-cashman/76054273007/
There's some brief discussion of this in the Yankees offseason thread -- it's kind of a strange development as I think @BigSoxFan is probably correct that Cole could fetch more on the open market but it doesn't seem like he actually wants to be on the open market, and the Yanks know that. There may be some handshake agreement to rework the deal later in the offseason to add 2-3 years and increase the total money but substantially decrease the AAV, but @jon abbey pointed out that multiple Yanks pundits have dismissed that theory.
Edit: but also, I dunno nuthin about nuthin, so
from https://www.mlb.com/news/gm-meetings-2024-executives-discuss-gerrit-cole
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Maybe they pulled the old “if you opt out, we won’t resign you” line they used on A-Rod.
But yeah, odd to see that resolved so quickly, like it never even happened.
But yeah, odd to see that resolved so quickly, like it never even happened.
If a bunch of people think Gerrit Cole wouldn't beat 5/$180m with his track record, this might legitimately be a good year to be shopping for starting pitching. I get that he's older and didn't make his customary 33 starts and 200 IP, but he's broken 200 IP six times! That is insane durability in this day and age.
He's tied for 5th highest fwar among 1B both this year and over the last three years combined. He's a stud.
And he's a right handed bat, who plays very good defense at 1B. Dude is going to get paid, I think, though for some reason I thought he was two years younger than he is.
He'd be a great fit on a Sox team that moved on of their DH's, though it's a pipe dream of mine at this point.
He REALLY wants to be a Dodger right now. Can't blame him.
View: https://twitter.com/GloverDarius/status/1853843669784121818
View: https://twitter.com/GloverDarius/status/1853843669784121818
I don't believe that Sasaki is coming this year until it is actually announced, Kiley is very reliable but it just makes no sense for the team to let him go this year or next. They would be giving up probably $50M by doing so.
There's just too much smoke, and there has been for about a year now. At this point it would be shocking to me if he's *not* posted. Just my two yen.
Ben Verlander agrees with you (which means the posting will probably be announced this week):
https://twitter.com/benverlander/status/1854347327903006871?s=46
Makes sense. This should help them sell out whichever 8,000-10,000 minor league park they end up playing in.
Apologies for this probably having been asked and answered a thousand times in here... .but isn't Sasaki just a free agent after this season and then the team has absolutely no chance of making any money off of him?
If so, then it absolutely makes sense for the team to post him... but isn't that basically a silent auction, so regardless of where he wants to play, he'd be bound to play wherever the team that won the posting? Or can the player refuse that.... but then wouldn't he just get returned to his current team?
Gonna just cut and past the answer from The Athletic:
"NPB’s rules and working agreement with MLB do not guarantee that Sasaki will become a free agent this offseason. All NPB players need nine years of service time in Japan before qualifying for international free agency. Sasaki has just four, so he would need cooperation from his team to make the jump.
Financial incentives may compel the Chiba Lotte Marines to retain Sasaki for now. Through the posting system, Japanese teams receive money for releasing the player, fees that are calculated based on the signing bonus and different percentages for certain salary thresholds.
Given Sasaki’s age, he would only be eligible to sign a minor-league contract under MLB’s posting rules. That potential deal would be funded through international bonus pool money. Every club’s current allotment is less than $8 million.
Thus, there’s a huge pay discrepancy between what Sasaki would get now — and, as a byproduct, what the Chiba Lotte Marines would get now — versus waiting until after he turns 25 years old."
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5905236/2024/11/07/roki-sasaki-japanese-pitcher/
TL/DR:
It makes zero financial sense for either Sasaki or Chiba to let him come to MLB before 2027, as it will be the difference between maybe a $300M Yamamoto-type deal (assuming he stays healthy) and a $5-7M area deal. The only way he will come is if he somehow wants to so badly that he forces Chiba to let him go and he doesn't mind giving up hundreds of millions like Ohtani did.
It makes zero financial sense for either Sasaki or Chiba to let him come to MLB before 2027, as it will be the difference between maybe a $300M Yamamoto-type deal (assuming he stays healthy) and a $5-7M area deal. The only way he will come is if he somehow wants to so badly that he forces Chiba to let him go and he doesn't mind giving up hundreds of millions like Ohtani did.
Boras told multiple media outlets (via MLBTR) that Alex Bergman is willing to move to second base. This probably opens up his market; but my guess is that in making such a comment, he's targeting certain teams. Any ideas who?
Would it be outlandish to suggest one of those teams he's targeting is the Red Sox? By no means am I advocating for it nor expecting it to happen, it's just that the Sox are a team at which they have a franchise player at 3B already, plus a budding star at 1B (the next most obvious position for a 3B to go to), but a open question as to who they will play at 2B next year. Clearly we know that 2B will be filled internally from a handful of options, but Boras likes to send messages through the media and via them to the less informed among fan bases to try to pressure clubs. It's not as though it's the first time the idea of Bregman in Boston has been floated recently. There's bound to be a reason for that despite Bregman to the Red Sox not really making a whole lot of sense.
All that said, without digging too deep, I bet there are more than a couple teams that are seemingly set at 3B but not at 2B, and Boras is just casting his net as wide as possible.
It's the Yankees. Gleyber is gone and they have a need at both 2nd and 3rd, assuming they want to put Jazz back in CF.
It’s definitely not the Yankees, I don’t think they’re going after Bregman but if they were, they’d clearly just move Jazz back to 2B and leave Bregman at 3rd. They’re not moving Jazz to the OF, barring a string of injuries. He has said he prefers the infield plus he is better there plus they have outfielders, with or without Soto.
That seems like a massive overpay for a slightly better than league average hitter. If it's actually on the table, he should take it now.
My thoughts exactly. Tying the single season record for 3 run homers is not exactly a repeatable skill.
@jon abbey covered most of it but just to reiterate or fill in some gaps on basics:
- No, he won't be a free agent -- not for another 5 years. If he wants to move to MLB in any of the next several offseasons, he needs his Japanese team to agree to post him.
- As to the bolded, that's how the NPB/MLB posting system used to work, years ago, back in the Ichiro/Matsuzaka days . It has changed several times over the years -- it was different by the time Masahiro Tanaka came over, and then changed again after Ohtani in 2017. Currently upon being posted, a player is free to openly negotiate with any & all MLB teams they're interested in. So it's far more player-friendly than it used to be. The NPB team now receives a posting fee linked to the size of the contract the player signs, details on structure here.
- As JA noted, because Sasaki is still just 23 and therefore subject to international bonus pool restrictions, he would need to sign a MiLB deal and presumably make the MLB minimum. And because the posting fee is now linked to the contract size, the incentives are very much against the team posting him this year, or next.
- Further, NPB teams often tie their decisions about whether or not to acquiesce to a player's posting request to certain statistical benchmarks (or pennants), none of which Sasaki has hit. In fact he's never thrown a full season or qualified for the ERA title.
- That said, there is rampant speculation that he's got a side deal with the team for them to post him whenever he requests it, so legally they may not have a choice.
Yakyu Cosmopolitan has a solid explainer of the current situation, and is a good follow in general for NPB matters:
https://x.com/yakyucosmo/status/1854307594464337973?s=46
Dahhh you beat me to it.
I’m not surprised by the move. It’s been clear that, like Ohtani when he posted, money isn’t the primary motivator for him, and there’s been too much smoke around this for too long for there not to have been a fire there.
I’ve been calling the odds of his destination 75% LAD, 20% SDP, 5% anywhere else.
I wonder what the market for Gleyber Torres will be like. I have no idea who his suitors will be or how much someone would be willing to pay him.
He will be 28 though.
He will be 28 though.
I said it in the other thread, but I feel like he's got Seattle written all over him.
An ex-Yankees 2B signing with the Mariners, what could go wrong??
Cano was great for SEA for the first 3-4 years, the problem is the deal was for ten years. I think Gleyber will come quite a bit cheaper.
I remember discussing with a friend whose contract would work out better, both starting in 2014: Ellsbury with Yanks or Cano with SeattleCano was great for SEA for the first 3-4 years, the problem is the deal was for ten years. I think Gleyber will come quite a bit cheaper.
Hmmmm
2024 Silver Sluggers
American League
1B: Vlad Guerrero Jr (2)
2B: Jose Altuve (7)
SS: Bobby Witt Jr (1)
3B: Jose Ramirez (5)
OF: Aaron Judge (4)
OF: Juan Soto (5)
OF: Anthony Santander (1)
C: Salvador Perez (5)
DH: Brent Rooker (1)
UT: Josh Smith (1)
National League
1B: Bryce Harper (4)
2B: Ketel Marte (1)
SS: Francisco Lindor (4)
3B: Manny Machado (2)
OF: Jackson Merrill (1)
OF: Teoscar Hernandez (3)
OF: Jurickson Profar (1)
C: William Contreras (2)
DH: Shohei Ohtani (3)
UT: Mookie Betts (7)
American League
1B: Vlad Guerrero Jr (2)
2B: Jose Altuve (7)
SS: Bobby Witt Jr (1)
3B: Jose Ramirez (5)
OF: Aaron Judge (4)
OF: Juan Soto (5)
OF: Anthony Santander (1)
C: Salvador Perez (5)
DH: Brent Rooker (1)
UT: Josh Smith (1)
National League
1B: Bryce Harper (4)
2B: Ketel Marte (1)
SS: Francisco Lindor (4)
3B: Manny Machado (2)
OF: Jackson Merrill (1)
OF: Teoscar Hernandez (3)
OF: Jurickson Profar (1)
C: William Contreras (2)
DH: Shohei Ohtani (3)
UT: Mookie Betts (7)