2024 MLB Offseason News

Petagine in a Bottle

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Manaea went from 1/14.5 to 3/75. 3.83 FIP last year not much different from the year prior (3.90). Shows where the pitching marketplace is.
 

jon abbey

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Manaea went from 1/14.5 to 3/75. 3.83 FIP last year not much different from the year prior (3.90). Shows where the pitching marketplace is.
This is deeply misleading, he went from 0.3 bWAR in 117 innings in 2023 for SF to 3.0 bWAR in 181.2 innings in 2024 for NY, followed by three very strong postseason starts (17 innings/5 runs/11 hits) followed by a clunker in his second start of the NLCS to end the Mets' season. Those final two innings got him over 200 though, a rare thing these days as we all know.

Also Manaea changed his approach and copied Sale mid-season and all of a sudden everything clicked for him and he has always had the talent to be a stud. I think he was always going back to the Mets, just a question of agreeing on price.

Also we need to keep in mind that Cohen Bucks are not the same as the other teams, they count the same in your bank account but the other 29 teams should not be judged by his deals. This one is a good deal though, I think.
 

simplicio

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That doesn't seem disproportionate at all based on what Fried got, the question is really whether Fried broke the fever.
 

Bread of Yaz

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Terrible landing spot for him: according to Savant he has hit 145 expected home runs in his career, but would have only 104 if he had played all his games in Detroit
 

E5 Yaz

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Terrible landing spot for him: according to Savant he has hit 145 expected home runs in his career, but would have only 104 if he had played all his games in Detroit
Good thing games aren't played on a projection sheet
 

E5 Yaz

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E5 may have been glib, but Comerica is around the 5th hardest park to hit homers in. That doesn't hurt the hitter's value, it just makes any given offensive output more valuable (and makes triples much more likely). Unless Torres is hurt more than everyone else by this, which @Bread of Yaz didn't posit, then it's a pretty meaningless tidbit.
Thank you
 

Sad Sam Jones

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MLB Trade Rumors presumes Colt Keith will move over to third base, which makes a lot more sense than deciding that a 23-year-old core player already has to move from second to first base... a move that would also hurt any chance that Spencer Torkelson still becomes a useful player (unless his bat could completely carry him at DH).
 

EddieYost

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E5 may have been glib, but Comerica is around the 5th hardest park to hit homers in. That doesn't hurt the hitter's value, it just makes any given offensive output more valuable (and makes triples much more likely). Unless Torres is hurt more than everyone else by this, which @Bread of Yaz didn't posit, then it's a pretty meaningless tidbit.
Still, it’s the type of reply that discourages people from sharing their thoughts. There is a less dismissive way to say the same thing.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Still, it’s the type of reply that discourages people from sharing their thoughts. There is a less dismissive way to say the same thing.
Not really. Bread of Yaz (and I’m not picking on him, unfortunately this has become the norm on this board in the last year or two) is not expressing a thought he’s cutting and pasting a stat and just leaving it there. This has been happening with WAR a lot, so credit to BoY for not simply doing that and yelling Yahtzee.

Stats are wonderful tools but if that’s all you’re going to say, well everyone on this board knows about FanGraphs or Baseball-Ref. Context around those stats is good. And projections are nice but they aren’t worth the 0’s and 1’s.
 

EddieYost

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Whatever you say.

Now I remember why I don’t post much in main board threads.
 

jon abbey

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Gleyber’s crappy defense at 2B should play equally well everywhere, but 1/15 is nothing. I feel like he could have a huge season if he even figures out how to keep focused over the endless season, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Good pickup for DET though, probably.
 

Bread of Yaz

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Whatever you say.

Now I remember why I don’t post much in main board threads.
Yeah. Many of the long timers here like to glibly shit on other people's posts without engaging on the merits. Those folks built the place, so they can take it in whatever direction they like I suppose
 

radsoxfan

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Not a big Torres fan, but thought he would do much better than that.

Is there a chance Bregman is going to have to settle for some short term player opt-out type deal?

Bregman probably isn't worth 2x Torres per year plus he is 3 years older....
 

simplicio

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Weird structure. Do these signing bonuses they're doing not count for AAV? Like are they trying to amass a giant tax bill this year then somehow reset next winter?
 

BigSoxFan

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Weird structure. Do these signing bonuses they're doing not count for AAV? Like are they trying to amass a giant tax bill this year then somehow reset next winter?
Believe they have to offer these large signing bonuses in order to get guys to agree to the deferred structure that helps to reduce the AAV and luxury tax payments.
 

Manzivino

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Weird structure. Do these signing bonuses they're doing not count for AAV? Like are they trying to amass a giant tax bill this year then somehow reset next winter?
In addition to BSF’s point about deferrals, it makes the contract easier to trade in the out years (because AAV is recalculated at the time of a trade based on actual dollars remaining and the signing bonus is paid up front).
 

jon abbey

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Meanwhile Alonso reportedly just turned down 3/90 from the Mets, who does he think is beating that exactly?
 

BigSoxFan

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Meanwhile Alonso reportedly just turned down 3/90 from the Mets, who does he think is beating that exactly?
And he was reported to have turned down 7/158 during the season. Burnes, Alonso, and Bregman are all in for the full Boras experience here.
 

jon abbey

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The Burnes one is strange. What I thought happened (my take, obviously not confirmed) was that after NYY went nuts for Fried, Breslow pivoted to Burnes but quickly found that both TOR/SF were already past where he was comfortable, so then he upped his offer for Crochet and landed him.

So if that is true (big if), both TOR and SF would have had to pull their offers, and that makes no sense. I guess we'll find out more after he signs somewhere.
 

OCD SS

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The Burnes one is strange. What I thought happened (my take, obviously not confirmed) was that after NYY went nuts for Fried, Breslow pivoted to Burnes but quickly found that both TOR/SF were already past where he was comfortable, so then he upped his offer for Crochet and landed him.

So if that is true (big if), both TOR and SF would have had to pull their offers, and that makes no sense. I guess we'll find out more after he signs somewhere.
It could just be that Breslow checked in on Burnes, looking for the number to sign, and then upped the offer for Crochet - no need for Toronto or SF to have larger offers, just Boras being Boras…

Edit: BreSlow. Ducking autocorrect.
 
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VORP Speed

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Believe they have to offer these large signing bonuses in order to get guys to agree to the deferred structure that helps to reduce the AAV and luxury tax payments.
You are taxed on signing bonus in your state of residence, not where you play your games, so it’s another way to mitigate the impact of CA state tax.
 

jon abbey

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The Alonso timetable is rough:

June 2023: Turns down 7/158.
Sept 2023: David Stearns takes over.
Oct 2023: Alonso fires his agent, hires Boras.
 

DeadlySplitter

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This is probably the most surprising FA location of the offseason?

Was he (Boras) just waiting for the first west coast team to offer a competitive salary and an early opt-out?
 

glennhoffmania

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You are taxed on signing bonus in your state of residence, not where you play your games, so it’s another way to mitigate the impact of CA state tax.
This isn't necessary correct, and also it wasn't the issue he was referring to.