2024 MLB Draft - Potential future Sox

JM3

JM3

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Rounds 3-10 start today at 2 p.m. eastern on mlb.com.

Red Sox picks:

3:86
4:115
5:148
6:177
7:207
8:237
9:267
10:297
 
JM3

JM3

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I am pretty irrationally excited about this draft in a way I wasn't about the last one when I was mostly just excited about Teel & cautiously optimistic beyond that.

Feels like a much more cohesive mix so far with a clear path toward usefulness all the way around.
 
simplicio

simplicio

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Very curious to see if Cason is signable. He seems almost certainly over slot but I don't have a good sense of where we saved.
 
JM3

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simplicio said:
Very curious to see if Cason is signable. He seems almost certainly over slot but I don't have a good sense of where we saved.
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I don't think they make that pick unless they have the money allocated. I think ~most of their picks will be at least a bit underslot & it will add up to be enough. We shall see, though.

My 1st guess is slot for Montgomery, Clarke & Futrell.

Under for Tolle, Neely, Ehrhard, Aita, Turner & White.

Who knows, though?

Here's the SP page with the picks, ranks in different places & slot values.

https://soxprospects.com/dh.htm
 
Jed Zeppelin

Jed Zeppelin

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JM3 said:
I don't think they make that pick unless they have the money allocated. I think ~most of their picks will be at least a bit underslot & it will add up to be enough. We shall see, though.

My 1st guess is slot for Montgomery, Clarke & Futrell.

Under for Tolle, Neely, Ehrhard, Aita, Turner & White.

Who knows, though?

Here's the SP page with the picks, ranks in different places & slot values.

https://soxprospects.com/dh.htm
Click to expand...
My sense is that with the rules as they are now, teams tend not to go wild with signability guys if they aren’t sure they can strike a deal. It’s not worth losing the pool $ and you don’t get a compensatory pick unless it’s the first 2 rounds (which is why the Sox did take the early shot on Fabian a few years back).
 
Diamond Don Aase

Diamond Don Aase

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JM3 said:
I don't think they make that pick unless they have the money allocated. I think ~most of their picks will be at least a bit underslot & it will add up to be enough. We shall see, though.

My 1st guess is slot for Montgomery, Clarke & Futrell.

Under for Tolle, Neely, Ehrhard, Aita, Turner & White.

Who knows, though?

Here's the SP page with the picks, ranks in different places & slot values.

https://soxprospects.com/dh.htm
Click to expand...
I would expect that Aita, as a draft-eligible sophomore, would not be significantly under slot.

If Montgomery (12th overall) were signed at the 10th slot and Aita (177th) at the 159th while Tolle (50th) were signed at the 57th slot and Neely (86th) at the 153rd, the Red Sox could sign all of their other collegiate picks at slot and still have nearly $950k remaining in their bonus pool (including allowed overages). That would be equivalent to the top of the third round and should be enough to not only sign Cason but make an aggressive offer to a potential 11th-round selection.

MLB.com described prep pitcher Jason Flores as “extremely signable” and similarly-ranked players (albeit many collegians) have been drafted at slots of less than a quarter-million dollars. Failing that, Boston could at least throw a few extra bucks toward legendary UMaine first baseman Jeremiah Jenkins and bring some warmth to the heart of @Chad Finn while he waits for Orono’s annual 15 minutes of summer to arrive.
 
JM3

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Diamond Don Aase said:
I would expect that Aita, as a draft-eligible sophomore, would not be significantly under slot.

If Montgomery (12th overall) were signed at the 10th slot and Aita (177th) at the 159th while Tolle (50th) were signed at the 57th slot and Neely (86th) at the 153rd, the Red Sox could sign all of their other collegiate picks at slot and still have nearly $950k remaining in their bonus pool (including allowed overages). That would be equivalent to the top of the third round and should be enough to not only sign Cason but make an aggressive offer to a potential 11th-round selection.

MLB.com described prep pitcher Jason Flores as “extremely signable” and similarly-ranked players (albeit many collegians) have been drafted at slots of less than a quarter-million dollars. Failing that, Boston could at least throw a few extra bucks toward legendary UMaine first baseman Jeremiah Jenkins and bring some warmth to the heart of @Chad Finn while he waits for Orono’s annual 15 minutes of summer to arrive.
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That's all fair. I was thinking they probably had an underslot deal in place with Aita due to his consensus ranking being much lower than where they drafted him, but i definitely don't know that & we shall see.
 
JM3

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Diamond Don Aase said:
Then nominative determinism would strongly suggest a slot deal.
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I lol'd (& then Googled to confirm that nominative determinism is what it sounded like).

Side note - Blake Aita was college teammates at Kennesaw State with Blake Wehunt in '23 & I'm surprised I haven't seen anyone else mention this.

Found these just now, though...

View: https://twitter.com/KSUanalyticsBSB/status/1653062021355634691


View: https://twitter.com/KSUOwlHowl/status/1812935196959993950
 
JM3

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Blake W ('23) - 76.1 IP, 4.83 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 2.7 bb/9, 9.4 k/9

Blake A. ('24) - 85.1 IP, 3.90 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.0 bb/9, 8.9 k/9

Wehunt was about 18 months older when he was drafted as well.
 
LogansDad

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JM3 said:
I am pretty irrationally excited about this draft in a way I wasn't about the last one when I was mostly just excited about Teel & cautiously optimistic beyond that.

Feels like a much more cohesive mix so far with a clear path toward usefulness all the way around.
Click to expand...
With the caveat that you are way, way smarter about this stuff than me, this is exactly the way that I would describe my feelings about this draft.

I am very excited about the trajectory of this organization.
 
simplicio

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Honestly, the thing that's keeping my excitement low is that, while we've obviously seen a tremendous shift in pitching in Boston, the pitching in the minors feels a lot less revelatory so far? One of the stories of 2023 was the Worcester rotation being surprisingly disappointing and I was really hoping Willard and DeLucia could do more to turn that around, but I'm still not seeing much to get excited about there.

Maybe those guys aren't very good. Maybe they need more time with the new program. Maybe Breslow has identified kids with better tools this draft. I just want to see the farm producing some real arms forcing their way up before I get too jazzed about the prospects of the newest batch.
 
JM3

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simplicio said:
Honestly, the thing that's keeping my excitement low is that, while we've obviously seen a tremendous shift in pitching in Boston, the pitching in the minors feels a lot less revelatory so far? One of the stories of 2023 was the Worcester rotation being surprisingly disappointing and I was really hoping Willard and DeLucia could do more to turn that around, but I'm still not seeing much to get excited about there.

Maybe those guys aren't very good. Maybe they need more time with the new program. Maybe Breslow has identified kids with better tools this draft. I just want to see the farm producing some real arms forcing their way up before I get too jazzed about the prospects of the newest batch.
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I think "not very good" is most likely the issue. Who among that group of starters was anyone excited about other than Fitts? & I've been on the record since before we acquired him that Fitts isn't that great. There is a reason he was available along with 2 other pitchers for 1 year of Verdugo.

Sorted by starts:

Jason Alexander (16) - 31 y/o soft throwing journeyman. 3.98 ERA in line with expectations, just there to eat innings.

Richard Fitts (15) - Gets hit too hard & hasn't controlled the zone. Haven't looked at it too carefully, but I would guess a lot of the issues stem from trying to turn him from a 2-pitch pitcher into a 3 or 4- pitch pitcher which would be necessary for him to make an impact at the next level. 4.76 ERA is high, but has at least shown some flashes.

Grant Gambrell (14) - He has the same issue he always has... lack of great stuff. He's 26 & kind of is what he is. Don't think his 4.58 ERA is a surprise.

Hagenman/BVB (8) - Both are softer throwing 27 y/o with ERAs in the 5s who have bounced between the rotation & the pen. Hagenman probably would have a better ERA in a pure 2- inning relief role, but neither possess particularly lively arms.

Naoyuki Uwasawa (6) - Another soft tosser without plus stuff. 6.51 ERA. Guessing their trying to work on stuff & that's why his walk rate is so high, but not a lot of there there.

Winck (6)/Criswell (5) - Pretty good pitchers in AAA there to stretch out/stay stretched out. 2.87/1.40 ERA.

PENROD is by far the most exciting prospect besides Fitts but he only got 2 starts before the shinjury.

I guess my point is that their inability to turn water into wine so far doesn't mean I'm not excited to see if they can turn all these new flavors of fruit juices into wine.
 
simplicio

simplicio

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Thanks, that talks me off the ledge a bit. I think I'm still not over the Drohan cratering from last year.
 
JM3

JM3

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simplicio said:
Thanks, that talks me off the ledge a bit. I think I'm still not over the Drohan cratering from last year.
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Well, we'll get a take 2 on Drohan at some point. He's been at the Fort for a month now. Wonder how it's going.
 
Chad Finn

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Diamond Don Aase said:
I would expect that Aita, as a draft-eligible sophomore, would not be significantly under slot.

If Montgomery (12th overall) were signed at the 10th slot and Aita (177th) at the 159th while Tolle (50th) were signed at the 57th slot and Neely (86th) at the 153rd, the Red Sox could sign all of their other collegiate picks at slot and still have nearly $950k remaining in their bonus pool (including allowed overages). That would be equivalent to the top of the third round and should be enough to not only sign Cason but make an aggressive offer to a potential 11th-round selection.

MLB.com described prep pitcher Jason Flores as “extremely signable” and similarly-ranked players (albeit many collegians) have been drafted at slots of less than a quarter-million dollars. Failing that, Boston could at least throw a few extra bucks toward legendary UMaine first baseman Jeremiah Jenkins and bring some warmth to the heart of @Chad Finn while he waits for Orono’s annual 15 minutes of summer to arrive.
Click to expand...
Seriously! I can’t believe he didn’t go yesterday.
 
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