2024 MLB Draft - Potential future Sox

TimScribble

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The 2024 MLB draft is still 4 months away but mock draft season has started. Most think Boston will take a pitcher but as last season’s draft showed us, you never know how it will unfold. The Red Sox have the 12th pick.

BA Mock 3/18/24:

12. Red Sox — Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke

Boston has one of the most hitter-heavy farm systems in the game. There’s some thought they could be targeting pitching in 2024 after taking bats in the first round for five straight drafts going back to 2018 (the team didn’t have a 2019 first round pick). If that’s the case, Duke southpaw Jonathan Santucci could be one of the best options available here. He had a fairly forgettable game in a highly-scouted matchup against Wake Forest two weeks ago, but he sits in the mid-90s with a riding fastball, shows a plus slider and has the makings of a solid changeup as well. If he keeps posting throughout the spring it’s hard to not see him going somewhere in the middle of the first round—or higher.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-charlie-condon-jac-caglianone-make-strong-impressions/
 
LogansDad

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I am very curious to see what they do this year. I wonder if they go with a high floor college arm who might sign under slot with their first pick, and then go above slot in the next couple rounds on projectable high school kids.
 
simplicio

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Most reporting has this being an unusually weak class, wonder if they go underslot and spread the money around or try to poach a committed HS player.
 
Jed Zeppelin

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Will be very interesting to get this first glimpse at the new brain trust’s draft strategy.

The funny thing is you could kind of make a case for a similar strategy to Bloom under the idea that the Breslow/Bailey machine can draw more value out of cheaper but maybe untapped arm talent. That was Bloom’s idea but who knows if anyone was around to actually develop those arms.

You can denigrate Bloom all you want but it is still a reality that high school arms are the highest risk so I could see the new guys having similar ideas.
 
JM3

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The other interesting thing is they haven't really switched up their drafting infrastructure, & still have guys like Pearson & Toboni in important positions.

I wonder if it will be more of an adjustment in what traits they are looking for in pitchers more so than a change in overall draft strategy.

Seems quite possible they will draft a college pitcher in the 1st round, though, because that's what this draft seems to be deeper at toward our range.

Here's the slot value by pick. No extra picks this year unlike last year:

1(12): $5,484,600
2(50): $1,846,400
3(86): $878,800
4(115): $630,900
5(148): $457,900
6(177): $351,100
7(207): $274,600
8(237): $219,900
9(267): $194,600
10(297): $182,800

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-draft-bonus-pools-slot-values-for-each-team/

& here's a look at the "Arsenal+" on some of those pitchers:

View: https://twitter.com/DrummeyDylan/status/1775308042189296018
 
JM3

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simplicio said:
Klaw released his top 50 last week: https://theathletic.com/5421487/2024/04/18/mlb-draft-2024-prospect-rankings-top-50-keith-law?source=user-shared-article

He has Santucci down at 39 over questions about throwing strikes.
Click to expand...
List of the pitchers on his top 50 (ages are as of today)...

#6 Chase Burns, RHP, 21
#7 Hagen Smith, LHP, 20
#13 Trey Yesavage, RHP, 20
#16 Brody Brecht, RHP, 21
#25 Cam Caminiti, LHP, 17
#26 William Schmidt, RHP, 18
#27 Ryan Sloan, RHP, 18
#28 Kash Mayfield, LHP 19
#35 Joey Oakie, RHP, 17
#37 David Shields, LHP, 17
#38 Tegan Kuhns, RHP, 18
#39 Jonathan Santucci, LHP, 21
#40 Luke Holman, RHP, 20
#44 Ryan Johnson, RHP, 21
#47 Carter Holton, LHP, 21
#49 Ben Hess, RHP, 21
#50 Michael Massey, RHP, 21

So probably not a lot of likely 1st round college arms.
 
JM3

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12. Boston Red Sox: SS Bryce Rainer, Harvard-Westlake High School (CA)

Rainer was the consensus top performer at USA Baseball's National High School Invitational, and a weak high school class has quickly pushed him up draft boards. He has a strong, projectable 6'3", 195-pound frame, significant raw power and the defensive chops to stick at shortstop. If he continues to show he can make consistent hard contact, he could push Konnor Griffin to be the first high schooler taken in 2024.
Click to expand...
View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10118176-2024-mlb-mock-draft-20-early-picks-for-every-1st-round-selection
 
JM3

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simplicio said:
CA high school SS? They realize we fired Bloom, right?
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The more things change...

There seems to be a big gap between the top 3 college pitchers who are all projected to be drafted before us, & the next batch who are expected to go in the 20s. Shame we can't trade down or up.
 
JM3

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Latest Pipeline Mock Draft has the Red Sox taking...

12. Red Sox: Seaver King, 3B/OF, Wake Forest (No. 13)
As of right now, it seems like the Red Sox and Giants are in on the next wave of college bats, and it’s possible they both have the same two hitters atop that list. One is King, who hit .424 on the Cape last summer and has an OPS north of 1.000 this year in his first year at Wake. The other is …
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https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2024-mock-draft-may-2?t=mlb-draft-coverage

With this guy going 1 pick ahead of them to the Tigers:

View: https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1786549337251598448

A clear top 11 when we have the 12th pick seems not optimal, but it's early.

What does seem fairly certain as of right now is that there is some consensus that the top 11 names in our Top 150 have separated themselves. That’s not to say a team in the top 11 won’t take someone not in that list, allowing one (or more) of that 11 to drop down some. But this edition, I have those names going in the top 11, all but two of them college players, albeit not in the exact order of ranking.
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Merkle's Boner

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Yeah I’m really hoping Yesavage falls to 12. I know you’re not supposed to draft for need in baseball but Sox really need quality arms in the system.
 
Joe Nation

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Latest mock draft by Keith Law of the Athletic (May 15, 2024)
12. Red Sox: James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State

Tibbs has probably been the biggest riser among college players this year, as he’s had more homers than strikeouts for Florida State and model-heavy teams seem to love him. Also, shame on everyone if we don’t nickname him King Tibbs III.
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zenax

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If you go to bb-ref, select MLB Summary (just under 2024 MLB standings) and then select Previous Season, then pick New Debuts under Other, then Batting, Scroll down to the Batting stats and sort that by PA (descending):
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-debuts.shtml#all_misc_batting

You get a list of all players (including pitchers) who made their MLB debut in 2023. SOme of them show stats from the 2024 season. There ia one player with more than 700 PA, 3 players in the 600s, 4 players in the 500s, 6 in teh 400s (including one who hasn't played this season). All told, there are 261 players listed; 153 with no PA.

In other words, a lot of the players listed as making their debut in 2023 were position players called up to fill in fpr injured players or late-season call-ups, so it is not easy to look at rookies and compare them to other rookies before you know if one is just a call-up or a future regular.

And btw, the table above Batting Stats is Biographical Information and includes first and last game dates as well as positions played. If you simply change the year in the above URL, it is easier to check other years: for example, there were only 24 players making their debut in 1950 who accumulated at least 1000 career PA and a handful of them were pitchers.
 
Joe Nation

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Latest mock draft by Keith Law of the Athletic (June 19, 2024)
12. Boston Red Sox: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina

Beyond Yesavage, I’ve heard them with several college hitters, including Tennessee’s Christian Moore and LSU’s Tommy White.
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RoDaddy

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Merkle's Boner said:
Yeah I’m really hoping Yesavage falls to 12. I know you’re not supposed to draft for need in baseball but Sox really need quality arms in the system.
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I'm cool with a good arm but not so convinced they have to go pitcher as opposed to best player available. We have lots of good under-30 pitchers in Boston (Houck, Crawford, Bello, injured Whitlock), and even Pivetta is only 31. Giolito's contract was one year but he could be in the future mix as well at almost 30. Plus quality arms in the minors led by Perales. Would also be cool if they get Northeastern's Mike Sirota, maybe in the 2nd round
 
Auger34

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Kiley McDaniel has a mock out today which has the Sox taking Christian Moore.

Looking at the various top 100 lists that seems like a pretty big reach
 
JM3

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Auger34 said:
Kiley McDaniel has a mock out today which has the Sox taking Christian Moore.

Looking at the various top 100 lists that seems like a pretty big reach
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Moore has been raking in the CWS & jumping up draft boards.

View: https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1801791595731194332


Last I heard he might be a guy who goes a bit higher because he would sign underslot, too, but not sure if that's still the case.

Either way, would be kind of surprised if that's the direction they go.
 
burstnbloom

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It seems like Yesavage will be there because of the injury. He's pretty intriguing. He'd be the highest pedigree college arm they had in a very long time. It's such a big risk though, I can't help but think they grab a hitter again. James Tibbs would be exciting.
 
nighthob

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JM3 said:
Moore has been raking in the CWS & jumping up draft boards.

View: https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1801791595731194332


Last I heard he might be a guy who goes a bit higher because he would sign underslot, too, but not sure if that's still the case.

Either way, would be kind of surprised if that's the direction they go.
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He's a RHH and raking, two good traits. If they could get him underslot and use the cash to land a couple of HS prospects, all the better.
 
Joe Nation

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Latest mock from JIm Callis of MLB Pipeline

12. Red Sox: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
Barring a surprise fall -- perhaps Griffin or Rainer? -- the Red Sox figure to dip into the second tier of college bats that begins with Tibbs and Moore, though Yesavage is also enticing. This is the ceiling for other members of that group, including Florida State third baseman Cam Smith, Wake Forest third baseman/outfielder Seaver King, Oklahoma State outfielder Carson Benge, Louisiana State third baseman Tommy White, North Carolina outfielder Vance Honeycutt and Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt.
 
LogansDad

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I am not nearly as knowledgeable on the draft as a lot of other people around here, but I feel like Yesavage would be an awesome pick for the Sox at 12 and is a guy I have been hoping to see linked to them for a bit. With the glut of offense they have in the high minors, a well developed college pitcher who should be ready by 2026 (and maybe as soon as next year) sounds awesome to me.
 
JM3

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Bit of a Red Sox draft deeper dive from Christopher Smith including several GMs from around the league & some Breslow quotes:

“Do we need to be disciplined in terms of how much talent we’ll be leaving on the board in chasing pitching vs. position players?” Breslow said. “Absolutely. And that’s the concern. ... We should be able to kind of turn position player talent into pitching talent.”
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“Generally, I think the teams that do well with development, they don’t overthink the draft,” Breslow said. “They take the player that’s the best available in front of you and develop the heck out of him.”
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“The draft is a bit of a crapshoot,” Breslow said. “It’s becoming less of a crapshoot as we’re collecting more and more information about players. The huge asymmetry in information collection between college players and high school players is significant. Generally, the sentiment is that college position players are kind of the most predictable demographic.”
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“If you were to say, ‘Hey, all else being equal — we think we’ve got kind of the same talent level between a pitcher and a position player — does it make sense to get the pitcher like given our situation?’ I think there’s a compelling argument to say, ‘Yes,’” Breslow said.
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https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/07/will-red-sox-draft-first-round-pitcher-then-develop-the-hell-out-of-him.html
 
JM3

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Klaw final mock.

12. Boston Red Sox: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
I’d heard a few weeks ago this was one of Boston’s ideal scenarios, and if the Angels go another route, it becomes much more likely that Yesavage gets here, although he’d have to get past the Nats, who are also candidates to take him (which pushes someone else down). If Yesavage is gone, the Red Sox may go with Jurrangelo Cijntje. I’ve heard Boston previously linked with Christian Moore and Ryan Waldschmidt.
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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5636030/2024/07/14/final-mlb-mock-draft-2024-travis-bazzana/
 
JM3

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Merkle's Boner said:
Agreed. And assuming he recovers fully, I would expect him in Portland by end of 2025.
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If he's not in Portland by mid-year next year he's probably dropping in the rankings.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat said:
Prisoner of the moment and all, but damn, I can't put him ahead of KCamp yet.
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It's an interesting one. I've somehow gone from like 30 spots higher on KCamp than SP to lower on him. I think he still has some of the same structural limitations he always had in terms of athletic fluidity.
 
JM3

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"We certainly learned some things this year on how we could better value pitchers,” Pearson said. “We still went with the best player available. It turned out to be a pitcher. But as I’ve said before, we’re continuing to try to find ways to improve our process and with Brez’s help and with Willard’s help, we feel more comfortable with what type of pitchers we can develop in our system, and Tolle fits that mold.”
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The 6-6, 250-pound Tolle transferred to TCU from Wichita State this year and finished 11th in Division I in strikeouts with 125 in 81 1/3 innings while posting a 3.21 ERA over 14 starts. His fastball tops out at 96 mph along with a slider, cutter, changeup and curveball.

“A bunch of different weapons that we can work with and get to their best shapes,” Pearson said.
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Law ranked Tolle No. 48 on his top 100, noting he “finishes way out over his front side, so left-handers must think the ball is coming from behind their right ears. The delivery is a little cross-body, and he doesn’t have a plus pitch, throwing the fastball three-fourths of the time and letting the deception do its thing. You can send him out as a starter but he has to develop a viable second pitch to stay there.”
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“The unique traits for him are just the far-above-average extension, his strikes, his ability to spin the slider,” Pearson said. “He does a lot of things that we can work with and get to his optimal shapes. Mainly it’s the extension and how his fastball moves.”
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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5637848/2024/07/15/red-sox-draft-braden-montgomery-payton-tolle/
 
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