2024 Lineup (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)

[chawson]

O'Neill now up to .333/.450/.758/1.208, with 9 homers in just 19 games. Obviously he won't keep this up but he's been amazing. I'm very curious to see whether Boston extends him or trades him at the deadline.

He’s already shown enough that a QO is a virtual lock, in my mind.

He’s a Boras client so I’m not sure what potential there is for an extension, but O’Neill is hitting like a right-handed Yordan Alvarez and there’s nothing to suggest it’s been lucky. He’s only turning 29 this summer, and the team’s been so short on right-handed power.

It’ll be an interesting, maybe agonizing decision. Even if he falls back into the 160 wRC+ range, I’d have to think he’d fetch a Top 100 prospect and another back-end one at the deadline. I really hope we’re not 2-3 games back again on July 1st.

 

[chrisfont9]

He’s already shown enough that a QO is a virtual lock, in my mind.

He’s a Boras client so I’m not sure what potential there is for an extension, but O’Neill is hitting like a right-handed Yordan Alvarez and there’s nothing to suggest it’s been lucky. He’s only turning 29 this summer, and the team’s been so short on right-handed power.

It’ll be an interesting, maybe agonizing decision.

I’ll say. He was a 6-win player in his last healthy season, and the injuries the last two years weren’t anything big. I’d bet a couple years’ salary on him at least.

 

[Otis Foster]

Weren’t there report that O’Neill was happy with his Boston experience? With Boras riding shotgun, that doesn’t mean very much, but still.

 

[simplicio]

So our IF depth charts now look something like this:

3B Devers Dalbec Reyes Romy Grissom Hamilton Valdez Wong
SS Story Rafaela Reyes Romy Hamilton Grissom
2B Grissom Valdez Reyes Rafaela Romy Hamilton Wong
1B Casas Cooper Dalbec Reyes Romy Refsnyder Valdez Wong

In the minors, we have (assuming Dalbec is optioned when Grissom returns, although Valdez and Hamilton are also candidates):

3B Dalbec Westbrook Sogard Meidroth
SS Sogard Simas Mayer
2B Sogard Simas Yorke Mayer
1B Dalbec Kavadas Hickey

Good post from nvalvo in the Cooper thread after the Reyes DFA, continuing here.

I think Valdez gets optioned when Grissom comes up, unless Masa hits the IL, as he has the least versatility (and Hamilton can PR). I also think Romy bumps someone once he gets healthy, probably Hamilton? And Bobby somehow survives.

My guess on DH without Masa is Refsnyder gets the most time there, but they maybe start rotating OF through the spot for a bit of a break.

 

[Rovin Romine]

May as well. . .and by posting, we're guaranteed quick news on Grissom.

This is a snapshot comparison from the opening day roster to today, not a complete record of ups and downs.
* is LHH, Bold is opening day roster, call-up replacements are indented, whether originally on the roster or not.

Catchers:

Wong​

McGuire*​

Infielders:

Triston Casas* (60 day IL, 4/21 left rib fracture) ​

Tyler Heineman (10 day IL, 4/22 hamstring)​

Garrett Cooper​

Enmanuel Valdez*​

note: Vaughn Grissom IL/Delayed ST, AAA began 4/12, 20 days max. Due up 4/30?​

Trevor Story (60 day IL 4/6, shoulder, out for year)​

David Hamilton*​

Rafael Devers* (day to day shoulder and left knee issues 4/17-4/24.)​

Pablo Reyes - DFA​

Romy Gonzalez (10 Day IL 4/11, wrist sprain) MRI good.​

Bobby Dalbec​

Outfielders:

Masataka Yoshida* Possible wrist injury 4/28​

Tyler O'Neill (7 Day IL 4/16, concussion, back 4/23)​

Rob Refsnyder​

Wilyer Abreu*​

Jarren Duran*​

Ceddanne Rafaela​

Minors (40 man)

NONE​

​

MiL players of note (non-40):

Kavadas - 1B LHH (poor defender?, 3 true outcome hitter)​

Hickey - C/DH LHH (bat first player)​

Westbrook - 3B/2B RHH (age 28 journeyman type.)​

Sogard - IF/OF SH​

Meidroth - 3B/2B (adequate fielder at best, contact heavy)​

Conteras - OF LHH (probably not relevant to immediate needs, age 29 journeyman type)​

Notes:

Pablo Reyes DFA'd 4/29 for Garrett Cooper.​

 

[Rovin Romine]

May as well. . .and by posting, we're guaranteed quick news on Grissom.

Or not. There's been some reporting Valdez/Dalbec are going to AAA today. I'll edit later if wrong.

This is a snapshot comparison from the opening day roster to today, not a complete record of ups and downs.
* is LHH, Bold is opening day roster, call-up replacements are indented, whether originally on the roster or not.

Catchers:

Wong​

McGuire*​

Infielders:

Triston Casas* (60 day IL, 4/21 left rib fracture) ​

Tyler Heineman (10 day IL, 4/22 hamstring)​

Garrett Cooper​

Dominic Smith​

Enmanuel Valdez* (optioned AAA, 5/2)​

Vaughn Grissom (IL/Delayed ST, hamstring/stomach bug: up 5/3)​

Trevor Story (60 day IL 4/6, shoulder, out for year)​

David Hamilton*​

Ceddanne Rafaela​

Rafael Devers* (day to day shoulder and left knee issues 4/17-4/24)​

Pablo Reyes - DFA ​

Romy Gonzalez (10 Day IL 4/11, wrist sprain) MRI good.​

Zach Short​

Bobby Dalbec (optioned to AAA, 5/2)​

Outfielders:

Masataka Yoshida* (10 day IL 4/29, jammed left hand)​

Tyler O'Neill (7 Day IL 4/16, concussion, back 4/23)​

Rob Refsnyder​

Wilyer Abreu*​

Jarren Duran*​

Minors (40 man)

Enmanuel Valdez*​

Bobby Dalbec​

​

MiL players of note (non-40):

Kavadas - 1B LHH (poor defender?, 3 true outcome hitter)​

Hickey - C/DH LHH (bat first player)​

Westbrook - 3B/2B RHH (age 28 journeyman type.)​

Sogard - IF/OF SH​

Meidroth - 3B/2B (adequate fielder at best, contact heavy)​

Conteras - OF LHH (probably not relevant to immediate needs, age 29 journeyman type)​

Notes:

Pablo Reyes DFA'd 4/29 for Garrett Cooper.​

Ceddanne Rafaela moved from CF to SS 4/19.​

Zack Short acquired from Mets (DFA'd) for cash, 5/1.​

Dominic Smith signed 5/1.​

Enmanuel Valdez was on the opening day roster. Optioned to AAA 5/2. Better fielding, poor hitting.​

Dalbec was on opening day roster, optioned 4/8 for Romy Gonzalez, up 4/12 after Romy injury. Optioned 5/2 for Grissom.​

 

[E5 Yaz]

@bradfo
Red Sox will be optioning Bobby Dalbec to Worcester
https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo

 

[Humphrey]

@bradfo
Red Sox will be optioning Bobby Dalbec to Worcester
https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo

Having him starting at first today was quite surprising given they brought in not one, but TWO first basemen!

Reminded me of George Costanza quitting/getting fired and showing up for work the next day like nothing had happened.

 

[LoLsapien]

Did we actually have a guy named Short playing 2B today? Or is the MLB app box score f#cking with me?

 

[Humphrey]

I assume he's a short timer (pun intended) given Grissom's supposed to be in the lineup tonight.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Not necessarily; isn’t it possible, even likely, that Grissom replaces Hamilton?

 

[Rovin Romine]

Did we actually have a guy named Short playing 2B today? Or is the MLB app box score f#cking with me?

I assume he's a short timer (pun intended) given Grissom's supposed to be in the lineup tonight.

Are you guys not reading this thread? Or the others on the main board?

We've got 8 starters/primaries and 5 bench players, one of whom will DH.

Starters: Wong, Cooper, Grissom, Rafaela, Devers, Duran, O'Neill, Abreu, (DH).

Bench: McGuire (C), Refsnyder (OF), Smith (1B/DH), Hamilton (2B/SS), Short (2B/SS/3B, emergency OF).

(You can quibble if Refsnyder or Abreu is the 4th OF, or Cooper or Smith is the 1B, or who will DH, but that's basically the shape of it.)

Short's role is to rest the middle infield and provide competent defense - what Pablo Reyes/Romy was supposed to do.

Not necessarily; isn’t it possible, even likely, that Grissom replaces Hamilton?

The reporting at MLB and other places is Dalbec to AAA for Grissom.

And it makes sense. A non-hitting Dalbec is pretty redundant with Cooper + Smith at 1B and Devers + Short at 3B. At the moment, Hamilton can step into the SS/2B role; Dalbec can't do that.

Hamilton may eventually go down for Romy, but ultimately, with a healthy Romy/Short type on the club, we might see whomever has the best bat come up from AAA to take one of the 2 MI spots: Dalbec, Valdez, Hamilton. I don't think you need both Romy and Short on a club, unless Romy is really hitting and the AAA bats are all stalled.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Not necessarily; isn’t it possible, even likely, that Grissom replaces Hamilton?

Dalbec got sent down yesterday after the game so presumably that's how they're getting Grissom on the roster.

Short is the Pablo Reyes replacement, ultimately. Hamilton is effectively the 6th middle infielder and outfielder (by allowing Rafaela to move out there if necessary).

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Got it, that makes sense. Hard to keep track of all the comings and goings at this point.

 

[KillerBs]

So, based on where we stand, Dominic Smith and Cooper start vs most RHPers at 1b and dh. Hamilton's role looks like giving Grissom a day off here and there at 2b.

We kinda need Dom Smith and Cooper to OPS around 100?

Against lefties Refsnyder is in the lineup of course (practically in lieu of Smith) and Duran and Abreu are too, though either could get a day off by starting Short at SS and pushing CR to CF.

 

[Rovin Romine]

So, based on where we stand, Dominic Smith and Cooper start vs most RHPers at 1b and dh. Hamilton's role looks like giving Grissom a day off here and there at 2b.

We kinda need Dom Smith and Cooper to OPS around 100?

Against lefties Refsnyder is in the lineup of course (practically in lieu of Smith) and Duran and Abreu are too, though either could get a day off by starting Short at SS and pushing CR to CF.

I think that scans.

Cooper's basically cleared the "average OPS bar" since 2019, so he's a good bet.

Smith is more of a reclamation project at this point. Though he did OPS+ at 93 last year with a large R/L split. So as a DH against RHP, he might be just fine.

Part of the Hamilton equation might be the immediate schedule. They have 3 @ MIN, a day off, 2 @ ATL, a day off, and then they're back for a 7 day homestand against WSN and TBR. The MN games are a night game, then two day games at 2pm Eastern. So if Grissom relapses or someone gets injured during warm-ups or the like, there's no real option to zip in somebody from WOR.

 

[simplicio]

@PeteAbe
Nothing official as of now. But Nick Pivetta and Romy Gonzalez will be added to the roster tomorrow with Naoyuri Uwasawa headed back to Triple A. Another position player will be dropped, as well. Also Rob Refsnyder is day-to-day but doesn't appear to be an IL situation.

I think that "other position player" has to be Hamilton, much as I'd love to be done with the Dom Smith experience.

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

Getting nothing out of DH and 1B right now is really hurting. Getting Ref back means an OF could DH at least.

 

[simplicio]

Short is DFA. I honestly forgot he existed.
View: https://twitter.com/byJulianMack/status/1788041833471164476

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Short is DFA. I honestly forgot he existed.
View: https://twitter.com/byJulianMack/status/1788041833471164476

This was exactly why Short was signed...to be cut when other guys got healthy enough to replace him. He and Romy on the same roster is redundant. Maybe they can slip him through waivers and send him to Worcester to maintain some depth but it's not like he'll be missed if he moves on.

 

[Fishy1]

Getting nothing out of DH and 1B right now is really hurting. Getting Ref back means an OF could DH at least.

Totally agree, but I think there's some reason for optimism with the two guys we;ve got. Cooper and Smith haven't been great, and I don't expect them to be really. But they're not striking out 50% of the time and it's very, very early to be making a judgment call on either of them, I think. 20 plate appearances or so.

Smith has been a league average bat for his career with outbursts of lunacy (and finally had hamate surgery after years of "tendinitis"), while Cooper has been an above average bat his entire career (a career BABIP of .345 is kind of crazy). Smith had what looked to be preternatural power but it disappeared suddenly a couple of years ago (which I suspect coincided with the tendinitis worsening).

More on Smith's Hamate surgery:

Smith disclosed this week in an interview with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic that he's dealt with some form of right wrist or hand pain since reaching the majors in 2017.

Smith suffered a displaced fracture of his hamate bone in a Jan. 5 workout and underwent surgery Jan. 20 to remove the bone. The first baseman was diagnosed with tendinitis in the wrist years ago but suspects he might have been dealing with a small fracture all along that just worsened in January. Smith is in Cubs camp as a non-roster invitee and is competing for one of the final bench spots.

No homers from him yet, obviously, but he had one that nearly snuck out last series and a couple of other hard hit deep fly balls the last few games. He's only 29, too. The hamate surgery may have sapped his power, and there's plenty of guys who've had that injury and recovered over time to get their power back (Giancarlo Stanton being a good example, though not really an appropriate one here, maybe).

Just to say there's some reason for optimism with these guys.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Totally agree, but I think there's some reason for optimism with the two guys we;ve got. Cooper and Smith haven't been great, and I don't expect them to be really. But they're not striking out 50% of the time and it's very, very early to be making a judgment call on either of them, I think. 20 plate appearances or so.

Smith has been a league average bat for his career with outbursts of lunacy (and finally had hamate surgery after years of "tendinitis"), while Cooper has been an above average bat his entire career (a career BABIP of .345 is kind of crazy). Smith had what looked to be preternatural power but it disappeared suddenly a couple of years ago (which I suspect coincided with the tendinitis worsening).

More on Smith's Hamate surgery:



No homers from him yet, obviously, but he had one that nearly snuck out last series and a couple of other hard hit deep fly balls the last few games. He's only 29, too. The hamate surgery may have sapped his power, and there's plenty of guys who've had that injury and recovered over time to get their power back (Giancarlo Stanton being a good example, though not really an appropriate one here, maybe).

Just to say there's some reason for optimism with these guys.

Aren't you supposed to lose power for a year after hamate surgery? Hardly optimistic for Smith.

 

[Fishy1]

Aren't you supposed to lose power for a year after hamate surgery? Hardly optimistic for Smith.

Sure, I'll do the research for you.

According to this analysis of the data, yeah, good point.

But I'd note a few things: that Smith had the surgery in the offseason, early January -- so nearly half a year ago -- and had Spring Training (where he hit pretty well) and some minor league time (where he did not hit well) to get his feet back under him.

According to the analysis above, a full season of at-bats was what it took for most of the players to see their ISO stabilize at or above their pre-injury ISO, although that wasn't true of all of them, and actually guys came back with a BETTER ISO on average in the end, although the sample size is small.

And actually, looking at the data, some of the swings in ISO in the first year post-surgery seem just like the normal variance that guys have in small sample sizes. Some of them had ISOs better than their average almost immediately, then saw dips in ISO as the season progressed, and pretty much everybody but poor Nick Markakis stabilized at ISOs better than their average pre-surgery.

Gwynn, Brantley, Pedroia, and Tulo all saw their ISOs spike above their average within 50 games of returning from surgery. Markakis saw his reach his pre-surgery average within 50 games, but then his ISO cratered afterward. Zimmerman also reached his pre-injury ISO within 50 games, but then he too saw his crater for a while, not getting back to his pre-surgery numbers till game 200 post-surgery. Here's the chart I'm referring to:



Which is all to say... yeah, I'm not sure it takes a whole year to recover, and the fact that he may have been playing with this for years is not in itself a reason for unalloyed optimism, but it may explain the way his numbers tanked, and I do think he deserves a shot to hit. He hasn't looked great to me so far, but he did hit a ball for a single at 103 mph, which would have been a homer in most parks, and he's hit a couple others to the opposite field hard that would have been wall ball doubles in Fenway... so...

I don't know, I'm not saying the guys gonna be stud, just that he's got pedigree and he's left-handed, which Refsnyder and Cooper are not. Wrist injuries are brutal on hitters, and he posted almost a full season of a wrc+ of like 150 between ages 24 and 25, which is no joke.

And yeah, some guys figure it all out late. Look at Justin Turner. He didn't post a 3 win season or an above-average wrc+ until he was 29. To be clear, I'm not saying he's the next Justin Turner, just that with Casas and Yoshida out for a while, he deserves a shot.

 

[nvalvo]

just that with Casas and Yoshida out for a while, he deserves a shot.

Yes, this. When either Casas or Yoshida near a return — or if the team gets an opportunity, perhaps by trade at the deadline or from the minors, to add a two-way infielder and shift Devers to mostly DH — then Smith is on the clock.

In other words, I don't think Dom Smith makes a hypothetical playoff roster, but I'd be interested to see what he can do with 150–200 PA. BEST CASE SCENARIO is that Smith hits well, Casas and/or Yoshida make a relatively rapid recovery, and we find ourselves with a desirable trade asset for the deadline that we can turn into another young pitcher for the pipeline.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Minor updates:

This is a snapshot comparison from the opening day roster to today, not a complete record of ups and downs.
* is LHH, Bold is opening day roster, call-up replacements are indented, whether originally on the roster or not.

Catchers:

Wong​

McGuire*​

Infielders:

Triston Casas* (60 day IL, 4/21 left rib fracture) ​

Tyler Heineman (10 day IL, 4/22 hamstring)​

Garrett Cooper​

Dominic Smith​

Enmanuel Valdez* (optioned AAA, 5/2)​

Vaughn Grissom (hamstring: delayed ST, up 5/3)​

Trevor Story (60 day IL 4/6, shoulder, out for year)​

David Hamilton*​

Ceddanne Rafaela​

Rafael Devers* (shoulder and left knee issues -no IL-: 4/17-4/24)​

Pablo Reyes (DFA 4/28)​

Romy Gonzalez (wrist sprain: IL 4/11-5/8)​

Zach Short (up 5/1, DFA 5/8)​

Bobby Dalbec (optioned to AAA, 5/2)​

Outfielders:

Masataka Yoshida* (10 day IL 4/29, jammed left hand)​

Tyler O'Neill (concussion: IL 4/16-4/23)​

Rob Refsnyder​

Wilyer Abreu*​

Jarren Duran*​

Minors (40 man)

Enmanuel Valdez* - 2B​

Bobby Dalbec - 1B/3B​

​

MiL players of note (non-40):

Pablo Reyes (outrighed 5/6)​

Kavadas - 1B LHH (poor defender?, 3 true outcome hitter)​

Hickey - C/DH LHH (bat first player)​

Westbrook - 3B/2B RHH (age 28 journeyman type.)​

Sogard - IF/OF SH​

Meidroth - 3B/2B (adequate fielder at best, contact heavy)​

Conteras - OF LHH (probably not relevant to immediate needs, age 29 journeyman type)​

Notes:

Pablo Reyes DFA'd 4/29 for Garrett Cooper, outrighted to WOR 5/6.​

Ceddanne Rafaela moved from CF to SS 4/19.​

Zack Short acquired from Mets (DFA'd) for cash, 5/1, DFA'd 5/8 for Romy Gonzalez.​

Dominic Smith signed 5/1.​

Garrett Cooper signed 5/1.​

Enmanuel Valdez was on the opening day roster. Optioned to AAA 5/2. Better fielding, poor hitting.​

Dalbec was on opening day roster, optioned 4/8 for Romy Gonzalez, up 4/12 after Romy injury. Optioned 5/2 for Grissom.​

 

[Yo La Tengo]

And yeah, some guys figure it all out late. Look at Justin Turner. He didn't post a 3 win season or an above-average wrc+ until he was 29. To be clear, I'm not saying he's the next Justin Turner, just that with Casas and Yoshida out for a while, he deserves a shot.

I was thinking about "some guys figure it out late" with regard to Dalbec, trying to figure out if there was any precedent for his career arc to date shifting to becoming an above average, full time MLB player. Turner came to mind and I found a substack by Paul White that includes a "Late Bloomers" theme for some of the posts. Amongst the group he's looked at so far: Dwight Evans (obviously), Cecil Cooper, Chili Davis, Matt Stairs, Tony Phillips, Luis Gonzalez, and a bunch of older players with names I didn't recognize. Very enjoyable reads: https://pauldwhite.substack.com/

 

[Fishy1]

I was thinking about "some guys figure it out late" with regard to Dalbec, trying to figure out if there was any precedent for his career arc to date shifting to becoming an above average, full time MLB player. Turner came to mind and I found a substack by Paul White that includes a "Late Bloomers" theme for some of the posts. Amongst the group he's looked at so far: Dwight Evans (obviously), Cecil Cooper, Chili Davis, Matt Stairs, Tony Phillips, Luis Gonzalez, and a bunch of older players with names I didn't recognize. Very enjoyable reads: https://pauldwhite.substack.com/

This is great, thank you.

Yeah, Dalbec unfortunately seems to me more likely to follow the Middlebrooks track. I thought maybe he'd be like Carlos Pena, but then I looked at Pena's actual K numbers, and the guy was mostly around 27%. Which is not great, but you can survive. 35% plus K rate and it starts to get reallllllly difficult.

 

[Rovin Romine]

There have been a few updates I let slide this month, but may as well with the Grissom/Gonzales injuries.

This is a snapshot comparison from the opening day roster to today, not a complete record of ups and downs.
* is LHH, Bold is opening day roster, call-up replacements are indented, whether originally on the roster or not.

Catchers:

Wong​

McGuire*​

Infielders:

Triston Casas* (60 day IL, 4/21 left rib fracture) ​

Tyler Heineman (Opt WOR 5/18. (prev :10 day IL, 4/22 hamstring)​

Garrett Cooper​

Dominic Smith*​

Enmanuel Valdez* (optioned AAA, 5/2, called up 5/29)​

Vaughn Grissom 10 day IL - 6/2, hamstring. (prev: hamstring: delayed ST, up 5/3)​

Jamie Westbrook​

Trevor Story (60 day IL 4/6, shoulder, out for year)​

David Hamilton*​

Rafael Devers* (shoulder and left knee issues -no IL-: 4/17-4/24)​

Pablo Reyes (DFA 4/28)​

Romy Gonzalez (10 day IL, 5/31, hamstring.(prev: wrist sprain: IL 4/11-5/8)​

Zach Short (up 5/1, DFA 5/8)​

Bobby Dalbec (optioned to AAA, 5/2, called up 6/2)​

Outfielders:

Masataka Yoshida* (10 day IL 4/29, jammed left hand)​

Tyler O'Neill (10 day IL - 5/26 hamstring. (prev: concussion: IL 4/16-4/23)​

Rob Refsnyder​

Wilyer Abreu*​

Jarren Duran*​

Ceddanne Rafaela​

Minors (40 man)

Tyler Heineman - C​

​

MiL players of note (non-40):

Pablo Reyes (outrighed 5/6)​

Kavadas - 1B LHH (poor defender?, 3 true outcome hitter)​

Hickey - C/DH LHH (bat first player)​

Westbrook - 3B/2B RHH (age 28 journeyman type.)​

Sogard - IF/OF SH​

Meidroth - 3B/2B (adequate fielder at best, contact heavy)​

Conteras - OF LHH (probably not relevant to immediate needs, age 29 journeyman type)​

Notes:

Pablo Reyes DFA'd 4/29 for Garrett Cooper, outrighted to WOR 5/6, traded to Mets for cash, 5/25.​

Ceddanne Rafaela moved from CF to SS 4/19, then back to CF with Hamilton hitting.​

Zack Short acquired from Mets (DFA'd) for cash, 5/1, DFA'd 5/8 for Romy Gonzalez, traded to ATL for cash on 5/9.​

Dominic Smith signed 5/1.​

Garrett Cooper signed 5/1.​

Enmanuel Valdez was on the opening day roster. Optioned to AAA 5/2. Better fielding, poor hitting.​

Dalbec was on opening day roster, optioned 4/8 for Romy Gonzalez, up 4/12 after Romy injury. Optioned 5/2 for Grissom. Up again 6/2 with Gonzalez/Grissom injuries.​

 

[simplicio]

.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Abreu to the IL. Heineman up - no position players left on the 40-man.

This is a snapshot comparison from the opening day roster to today, not a complete record of ups and downs.
* is LHH, Bold is opening day roster, call-up replacements are indented, whether originally on the roster or not.

Catchers:

Wong​

McGuire*​

Infielders:

Triston Casas* (60 day IL, 4/21 left rib fracture) ​

Garrett Cooper​

Dominic Smith*​

Enmanuel Valdez* (optioned AAA, 5/2, called up 5/29)​

Vaughn Grissom 10 day IL - 6/2, hamstring. (prev: hamstring: delayed ST, up 5/3)​

Jamie Westbrook​

Trevor Story (60 day IL 4/6, shoulder, out for year)​

David Hamilton*​

Rafael Devers* (shoulder and left knee issues -no IL-: 4/17-4/24)​

Pablo Reyes (DFA 4/28)​

Romy Gonzalez (10 day IL, 5/31, hamstring. (prev: wrist sprain: IL 4/11-5/8)​

Zach Short (up 5/1, DFA 5/8)​

Bobby Dalbec (optioned to AAA, 5/2, called up 6/2)​

Outfielders:

Masataka Yoshida* (10 day IL 4/29, jammed left hand)​

Tyler O'Neill (10 day IL - 5/26, hamstring. (prev: concussion: IL 4/16-4/23)​

Rob Refsnyder (prev: toe, delayed ST, up 4/18)​

Wilyer Abreu* (10 day IL - 6/3, sprained ankle)​

Tyler Heineman: note - Catcher (prev :10 day IL, 4/22 hamstring ended short term call-up)​

Jarren Duran*​

Ceddanne Rafaela​

Minors (40 man)

NONE​

​

MiL players of note (non-40):

Kavadas - 1B LHH (poor defender?, 3 true outcome hitter). As of 6/4, .955 OPS.​

Hickey - C/DH LHH (bat first player). As of 6/4, .695 OPS.​

Sogard - IF/OF SH. As of 6/4, .833 OPS.​

Meidroth - 3B/2B (adequate fielder at best, OPB/contact heavy). As of 6/4, .795 OPS. (.432 OBP).​

Conteras - OF LHH (probably not relevant to immediate needs, age 29 journeyman type). As of 6/4, .679 OPS. .812 in May.​

Notes:

Pablo Reyes DFA'd 4/29 for Garrett Cooper, outrighted to WOR 5/6, traded to Mets for cash, 5/25.​

Ceddanne Rafaela moved from CF to SS 4/19, then back to CF with Hamilton hitting/fielding better.​

Zack Short acquired from Mets (DFA'd) for cash, 5/1, DFA'd 5/8 for Romy Gonzalez, traded to ATL for cash on 5/9.​

Dominic Smith signed 5/1.​

Garrett Cooper signed 5/1.​

Enmanuel Valdez was on the opening day roster. Optioned to AAA 5/2. Better fielding, poor hitting. Up again 5/29.​

Voodoo Dalbec was on opening day roster, optioned 4/8 for Romy Gonzalez, up 4/12 after Romy injury. Optioned 5/2 for Grissom. Up again 6/2 with Gonzalez/Grissom injuries.​

Jamie Westbrook was added to the 40-man on 6/2, when Whitlock was put on the 60-day IL.​

 

[Rovin Romine]

I have to wonder about bringing up Heineman. He's a 32 year old catcher who hasn't really ever hit at the ML level. The kind of guy you bring up if Wong or Reese gets injured, or as a short term stopgap to have a bat on the bench.

I hope this does not mean that they're going to try to put Wong elsewhere in the field.

Mark Contreras isn't hitting well overall, but he did have a good May. And this is the kind of situation he's on the roster for.

Other than that though, we're pretty thin on fungible OF types.

 

[Sin Duda]

If you consider our preferred starting lineup as of 3/1 to be:
C Wong
1B Casas
2B Grissom
3B Devers
SS Story
LF O'Neil
CF Duran
RF Abreau
DH Yoshida...
What % of time has this lineup missed? Not sure where injury data is kept, but my back-of-the-envelope calc is about 30-40%. Starting Pitching is probably similar.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If you consider our preferred starting lineup as of 3/1 to be:
C Wong
1B Casas
2B Grissom
3B Devers
SS Story
LF O'Neil
CF Duran
RF Abreau
DH Yoshida...
What % of time has this lineup missed? Not sure where injury data is kept, but my back-of-the-envelope calc is about 30-40%. Starting Pitching is probably similar.

Only two of those guys have missed no time at all due to injuries: Duran and Wong. It's rather remarkable considering they're barely a third of the way through the season.

 

[Rovin Romine]

If you consider our preferred starting lineup as of 3/1 to be:
C Wong
1B Casas
2B Grissom
3B Devers
SS Story
LF O'Neil
CF Duran
RF Abreau
DH Yoshida...
What % of time has this lineup missed? Not sure where injury data is kept, but my back-of-the-envelope calc is about 30-40%. Starting Pitching is probably similar.

I have the major IL stints for each of them in the running post, so you could probably crunch it out. Either it's active with a start date, or a previous IL/injury with beginning and end dates.

It's easier to say who hasn't missed significant time: Wong, Duran, Rafaela - plus McGuire. That's it.

Although maybe guys who have 1 or 2 weeks out (Devers, O'Neill, Abreu hopefully) will start to feel minor as the season extends (and if they remain uninjured.)

 

[Rovin Romine]

O'Neill back, Heineman down - the only ML position player on the 40-man.

We've still got more starter red than white.


***
This is a snapshot comparison from the opening day roster to today, not a complete record of ups and downs.
* is LHH, Bold is opening day roster, call-up replacements are indented, whether originally on the roster or not.

Catchers:

Wong​

McGuire*​

Infielders:

Triston Casas* (60 day IL, 4/21 left rib fracture) ​

Garrett Cooper​

Dominic Smith*​

Enmanuel Valdez* (optioned AAA, 5/2, called up 5/29)​

Vaughn Grissom (10 day IL - 6/2, hamstring.) (prev: hamstring: delayed ST, up 5/3)​

Jamie Westbrook​

Trevor Story (60 day IL 4/6, shoulder, out for year)​

David Hamilton*​

Rafael Devers* (shoulder and left knee issues -no IL-: 4/17-4/24)​

Pablo Reyes (DFA 4/28)​

Romy Gonzalez (10 day IL, 5/31, hamstring.) (prev: wrist sprain: IL 4/11-5/8)​

Zach Short (up 5/1, DFA 5/8)​

Bobby Dalbec (optioned to AAA, 5/2, called up 6/2)​

Outfielders:

Masataka Yoshida* (10 day IL 4/29, jammed left hand)​

Tyler O'Neill (prev: concussion: IL 4/16-4/23; hamstring: 5/26-6-4)​

Rob Refsnyder (prev: toe, delayed ST, up 4/18)​

Wilyer Abreu* (10 day IL - 6/3, sprained ankle)​

Tyler Heineman: optioned 6/5​

Jarren Duran*​

Ceddanne Rafaela​

Minors (40 man)

Tyler Heineman: catcher.​

​

MiL players of note (non-40):

Kavadas - 1B LHH (poor defender?, 3 true outcome hitter). As of 6/4, .955 OPS.​

Hickey - C/DH LHH (bat first player). As of 6/4, .695 OPS.​

Sogard - IF/OF SH. As of 6/4, .833 OPS.​

Meidroth - 3B/2B (adequate fielder at best, OPB/contact heavy). As of 6/4, .795 OPS. (.432 OBP).​

Conteras - OF LHH (probably not relevant to immediate needs, age 29 journeyman type). As of 6/4, .679 OPS. .812 in May.​

Notes:

Pablo Reyes DFA'd 4/29 for Garrett Cooper, outrighted to WOR 5/6, traded to Mets for cash, 5/25.​

Ceddanne Rafaela moved from CF to SS 4/19, then back to CF with Hamilton hitting/fielding better.​

Zack Short acquired from Mets (DFA'd) for cash, 5/1, DFA'd 5/8 for Romy Gonzalez, traded to ATL for cash on 5/9.​

Dominic Smith signed 5/1.​

Garrett Cooper signed 5/1.​

Enmanuel Valdez was on the opening day roster. Optioned to AAA 5/2. Better fielding, poor hitting. Up again 5/29.​

Voodoo Dalbec was on opening day roster, optioned 4/8 for Romy Gonzalez, up 4/12 after Romy injury. Optioned 5/2 for Grissom. Up again 6/2 with Gonzalez/Grissom injuries.​

Jamie Westbrook was added to the 40-man on 6/2, when Whitlock was put on the 60-day IL.​

 

[Rovin Romine]

Sox having a good game at the plate today, in part due to Valdez (hitting since recall) and Hamilton (who has had a good May.)

If Valdez returns to what we thought he could be, he'd be a legitimate 2B option, not just a Grissom placeholder. That's really the upside scenario here, but getting production out of 2B/SS can quickly make this a more marginally contending club until power/depth returns with Abreu/Casas.

And, frankly. . .at this point we kinda deserve it. We deserve to get "lucky" with one or two of: Reyes, R.Gonzlaez, Valdez, Hamilton, Westbrook, and Dalbec, clearing the "decent replacement" bar. (To say nothing of Story and Grissom.) And for the team to tread water, they'd only have to be decent, not spectacular, or even league average.

That we might get a Valdez who hits in line with his projections. . .or a 109 OPS+ out of Hamilton? That would be such a bonus.

1B: weak - anything from this spot is an upside (Casas returning late June)
2B: Valdez (later Grissom)
SS: Hamilton (Rafaela backup)
3B: Devers
CF: Rafaela/Duran
OF: O'Neill/Refsnyder (Abreu returning soon?)
DH: mix-n-match (Yoshida returning in 2 weeks?)

 

[Jason Bae]

Duran's last 164 games:
.280/.338/.467, 117 wRC+, .346 wOBA, .360 BABIP, 7.2% BB%, 24% K%, 51 doubles, 11 triples, 12 HR, 35 SB (caught 5 times)

That's a lot of extra base hits.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Duran's last 164 games:
.280/.338/.467, 117 wRC+, .346 wOBA, .360 BABIP, 7.2% BB%, 24% K%, 51 doubles, 11 triples, 12 HR, 35 SB (caught 5 times)

That's a lot of extra base hits.

I think the “jury is still out” on Duran debate should be over. He’s a great lead off hitter, defensively has improved to very good and his energy really does seem contagious. When he’s playing well it seems the rest of the team plays well- the ‘23 team played well when he was in the lineup and collapsed when he was sidelined

 

[Fishy1]

I think the “jury is still out” on Duran debate should be over. He’s a great lead off hitter, defensively has improved to very good and his energy really does seem contagious. When he’s playing well it seems the rest of the team plays well- the ‘23 team played well when he was in the lineup and collapsed when he was sidelined

Anything can happen with baseball players, of course, and he's a reckless guy, so injuries are always a possibility... but this version of him is a 4-5 win player, absolutely. Savant thinks he's UNDERperforming his batting average this year by 20 points or so. The guy is absolutely a major leaguer and having him through his arb years in 2029 will be an absolute steal. He should be a part of any vision of a winning team for the Sox going forward.

 

[Sin Duda]

There's a real lot to like in this chart.

 

[chrisfont9]

View attachment 83746View attachment 83746
There's a real lot to like in this chart.

Assuming this is Duran? There is some stuff he could maybe improve on -- the chase rate specifically. So he might not have reached his true level just yet? Still good if he has.

 

[Cassvt2023]

How much longer can we afford to keep Garrett Cooper on the 26 man big league roster or even the 40 man? He has shown virtually nothing. It's time to give the likes of Meidroth or Sogard a shot or get Westbrook more at bats, imo.

 

[Sin Duda]

Assuming this is Duran? There is some stuff he could maybe improve on -- the chase rate specifically. So he might not have reached his true level just yet? Still good if he has.

Yes, it's Duran. I was especially happy with the 3 summary scores at the top. Hitting=80, Baserunning=100, Fielding=95. That's way more than a competent starter, that's a league leader. Though, even if he finishes the season at those levels, I'm not sure he'll get any national love since hitting dominates everything else, and HRs dominate hitting.

 

[LogansDad]

How much longer can we afford to keep Garrett Cooper on the 26 man big league roster or even the 40 man? He has shown virtually nothing. It's time to give the likes of Meidroth or Sogard a shot or get Westbrook more at bats, imo.

I agree. I understood the why of picking up Cooper when it happened, but at some point you have to be able to look in the mirror, admit a mistake and move on from it. And Cooper has been an abject disaster.

Problem is, I really think the team wants to avoid adding Meidroth and Sogard to the 40 man during this season. They have something like five guys on the 60 day IL right now, Casas will hopefully be back soon-ish (though it doesn't sound like it will be soon-er), Hendriks form what I have heard is hoping for trade deadline-ish, and all of Story, Whitlock and Murphy will need to be added back to the 40 man once the offseason hits. I know it doesn't feel like it because of the roster being put out there right now, but there is a real roster crunch for this organization right now.

I want Meidroth called up as much as anyone. With a team that strikes out as much as the Sox do, adding a pure OBP guy would be a huge shot in the arm, and he just seems like one of those "glue guys" to me. I think he gives the team a way better chance of competing this year than Cooper, but Cooper is a super easy cut when Casas comes back, and, frankly, nobody else on the 40 man really falls into that category.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Cooper has been awful, but he’s solid with the Cubs this year and fine with the Padres last year. It’s still not many at bats. I guess you’d want to know what the scouts think; lots of guys have lousy stretches with new teams. I don’t think you go out of your way to keep him but as of now, not sure there’s really any other great options- anyone can have a bad few weeks.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I agree. I understood the why of picking up Cooper when it happened, but at some point you have to be able to look in the mirror, admit a mistake and move on from it. And Cooper has been an abject disaster.

Problem is, I really think the team wants to avoid adding Meidroth and Sogard to the 40 man during this season. They have something like five guys on the 60 day IL right now, Casas will hopefully be back soon-ish (though it doesn't sound like it will be soon-er), Hendriks form what I have heard is hoping for trade deadline-ish, and all of Story, Whitlock and Murphy will need to be added back to the 40 man once the offseason hits. I know it doesn't feel like it because of the roster being put out there right now, but there is a real roster crunch for this organization right now.

I want Meidroth called up as much as anyone. With a team that strikes out as much as the Sox do, adding a pure OBP guy would be a huge shot in the arm, and he just seems like one of those "glue guys" to me. I think he gives the team a way better chance of competing this year than Cooper, but Cooper is a super easy cut when Casas comes back, and, frankly, nobody else on the 40 man really falls into that category.

I think the crunch is a bit illusory because we have so many guys on the 10/15 day IL right now (Martin, Mata, Gonzalez, Grissom, Abreu, Yoshida.)

To look at the 40 man right now the bottom (in terms of fungible talent) is probably:

Chase Anderson​

Brad Keller​

Bryan Mata​

Naoyuki Uwasawa​

Tyer Heineman​

Garrett Cooper​

Bobby Dalbec​

Dominic Smith​

Jamie Westbrook​

Players with options (AFAIK) are Heineman, Dalbec, Westbrook? But even so, those are a lot of slots to dump from - 9 total. I'm not saying that you can just DFA all those guys without having to put someone on the 40 who can fill their roles. Like a backup catcher (Heineman.) But if Fitts were to catch fire and we needed to call up a starter, would anyone really cry if we DFA'd Uwasawa to make it happen?

In short, while they might be useful, I don't think any of those particular guys are long term solutions.

Guys on the 60 back this season:

Casas​

Hendricks​

Story?​

For these guys you can just release a Cooper or a Smith or even a Dalbec and take your chances with waivers or what have you. But that's 3 spots.

Guys on the 60 to put on in the off-season:

Giolito​

Murphy
Whitlock​

Three spots.

FAs to be not listed above:

Jansen​

Martin​

Pivetta​

O'Neill​

Four spots - some might resign, or be traded for someone who needs to be on the 40, or the Sox could sign a FA in the off-season or promote a MiL player to fill their roles. Consider them already filled?

So that leaves about 3 fungible spots? Pretty tight if they want to protect a handful of rule 5 guys as well.

That said. . .if we had a Rule 5 guy who'd be ready to be on the ML roster full-time, wouldn't he be on the 40 at this point?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Excellent points, RR.

 

[E5 Yaz]

That said. . .if we had a Rule 5 guy who'd be ready to be on the ML roster full-time, wouldn't he be on the 40 at this point?

Confused on this: You mean one subject to Rule 5 now in the minors, right? Because we have a R5 guy in the majors getting full-time work

 

[LogansDad]

I think the crunch is a bit illusory because we have so many guys on the 10/15 day IL right now (Martin, Mata, Gonzalez, Grissom, Abreu, Yoshida.)

To look at the 40 man right now the bottom (in terms of fungible talent) is probably:

Chase Anderson​

Brad Keller​

Bryan Mata​

Naoyuki Uwasawa​

Tyer Heineman​

Garrett Cooper​

Bobby Dalbec​

Dominic Smith​

Jamie Westbrook​

Players with options (AFAIK) are Heineman, Dalbec, Westbrook? But even so, those are a lot of slots to dump from - 9 total. I'm not saying that you can just DFA all those guys without having to put someone on the 40 who can fill their roles. Like a backup catcher (Heineman.) But if Fitts were to catch fire and we needed to call up a starter, would anyone really cry if we DFA'd Uwasawa to make it happen?

In short, while they might be useful, I don't think any of those particular guys are long term solutions.

Guys on the 60 back this season:

Casas​

Hendricks​

Story?​

For these guys you can just release a Cooper or a Smith or even a Dalbec and take your chances with waivers or what have you. But that's 3 spots.

Guys on the 60 to put on in the off-season:

Giolito​

Murphy​

Whitlock​

Three spots.

FAs to be not listed above:

Jansen​

Martin​

Pivetta​

O'Neill​

Four spots - some might resign, or be traded for someone who needs to be on the 40, or the Sox could sign a FA in the off-season or promote a MiL player to fill their roles. Consider them already filled?

So that leaves about 3 fungible spots? Pretty tight if they want to protect a handful of rule 5 guys as well.

That said. . .if we had a Rule 5 guy who'd be ready to be on the ML roster full-time, wouldn't he be on the 40 at this point?

Totally valid points. The R5 guys are kind of who I was thinking of, too, but forgot to put them in my post because I am out of practice, but they are the big reason I don't think we see Meidroth this year.

I do hope I am wrong, though.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Confused on this: You mean one subject to Rule 5 now in the minors, right? Because we have a R5 guy in the majors getting full-time work

I assume he means minor leaguers who will become Rule 5 eligible at the end of the season. They'd need to be added to the 40-man by end of November to be protected from that draft (and they'll need roster space to do that). FWIW, Meidroth isn't Rule 5 eligible until December 2025, so he's not one who is going to need protection at the end of this season anyway, which may be a factor in any reluctance to add him now. I don't think you add guys to the 40-man who don't yet need the protection unless you believe they're ready to be full time big leaguers. You don't jump the gun for a bench guy unless you're completely desperate, but even then, it's more likely to be fungible guys like Jamie Westbrook then Meidroth.