2024 Lineup (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
In summary, Fatse went back and watched some film from Smith in High School, then showed it to him to point out what made him a 1st round draft pick and one of the better bats in that draft. "I'm a handsy hitter" Smith said. "I'm very old school when it comes to hitting. With all these new age mechanics, you have to hold certain angles and certain positions. Your swing needs to be a certain way to get results. That's something that I got really caught up in the last few years". Also, Cora pointed out that his swing is taylor made for the Wall in Fenway, jokingly calling him Boggs over the last month.
I hope that helps for those who couldn't read it.
I hope that helps for those who couldn't read it.
Thanks Grey Eagle and Cassy. That's some serious work by Fatse and I have a greater appreciation for him following that story (Dom too; didn't know he was a Rnd 1 pick).
I also had no idea that Dom was a 1st round pick. I also think he fits in very nicely with this team, he seems like a really good, easy going guy. And his ERA is zero in two pitching appearances this year!
It has been fun to see Dom start hitting again, and the details of Fatse taking him back to his natural swing are great to read. But how does he realistically fit on this roster once Casas is back? The lineup is already overly loaded with lefthanded hitters. Dom can only play 1B or DH and both Casas and Yoshida are LHH.
Agree. If Casas is healthy, there is no fit on the roster for a LH back up 1B. Otherwise, Eric Hosmer would still be here 
He doesn't fit. But he can't be optioned and I'd guess there's a very good chance he wouldn't pass through waivers. So maybe they bite the bullet and use a roster spot on him anyway, which would become less of an issue when rosters expand a couple weeks after Casas returns, taking either the Romy or the Sogard spot? Are they that confident Casas will go right back to playing every single day?
I imagine if there's concern about conditioning and his ability to play every day, they'll maximize Casas's rehab assignment to build him up as much as they can (his stint can last until the 18th). The secondary result of that would be less time they'd be crunched for a roster spot if they want to keep Smith.
But as it is, it's not like Smith is playing every day. A one-for-one swap of him for Casas probably doesn't have to change much in terms of how they deploy the lineup. Just as he is now, Romy can take a few starts at 1B against lefties or something if/when Casas needs a blow. The only real reason to try to hang on to Smith is if they think Casas could re-injure himself. But I would think his rehab assignment would answer that question.
There are guys that for whatever reason you cheer for and Dom is one of them.
This was good to read.
If they milk the rehab start that long (not saying it's right or wrong ) than they will *really * know where the team stands in the playoff race and plan accordingly. If we are 4 games out of the last spot we'd presumably treat Casas differently than if we were .5 games out
McGuire reporting to Worcester, with YoRam.
Walter and Anderson released.
https://nesn.com/2024/08/red-sox-retain-dfad-catcher-pitcher-amid-flurry-of-roster-moves/?#lzdjbu78oh0yhxjlcv
Walter and Anderson released.
https://nesn.com/2024/08/red-sox-retain-dfad-catcher-pitcher-amid-flurry-of-roster-moves/?#lzdjbu78oh0yhxjlcv
Abreu has an ops of .856. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, he'd be 19th in all of MLB with that number.
2024 Houston Astros composite OF statline: .247/.317/.417.
Those 108 PA from Christian Vazquez were expensive.
Per Fangraphs, top 40 in baseball in Weighted Runs Created +, their summary offensive stat, for batters with at least 250 PAs, about 30% better than average.
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1820652867407036522?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
I'm pretty shocked that list is so short.
I'm pretty shocked that list is so short.
So we all like Dom Smith. But Casas looks like he's about ready to return. I don't really see how Dom fits on the roster once Triston is back, he becomes completely redundant.
Would be brutal to cut Dom at this juncture but I also don't really see a way around it short of making us thin at middle infield. They could send down Sogie for now, I guess, but when/if Grissom seems ready (and I think he will), do you then send down Hamilton? Romy? Seems pretty tough on those guys, they're both heating up right now.
One thing to keep in mind is the Sox are pretty thin in the minors in terms of break-glass guys at first (Dalbec does not seem like an option for them anymore).They might send down a middle infielder just to keep flexibility.
The offense has really carried this team the last couple months.
I assume Dom doesn't have any options left. I could see them sending down a middle infielder, keeping Dom and crossing their fingers for 20 days. But unless they have some idea of a role for him, I'm not sure why they would.
You think that the Sox should play it smart and figure out a way to get Casas at DH since he’s a notorious slow starter before dropping Smith…. But Yoshida has been hitting so well lately.
I think the way Dom is hitting lets you keep Casas in rehab for as long as you need, and he's fine as the 28th guy when rosters expand. At least I don't see a glaring positional need to give the extra spot to one of Grissom/Valdez/Westbrook/Dalbec/Heineman over the guy who's leading baseball in doubles in the second half. Maybe if Grissom finally gets it all together, but he's not there yet.
Recapping:
751 runs (8th in MLB)
104 wRC+ (11th)
.321 wOBA (9th)
777 third-order runs (7th)
Not sure where to find statcast numbers for teams as a whole.
751 runs (8th in MLB)
104 wRC+ (11th)
.321 wOBA (9th)
777 third-order runs (7th)
Not sure where to find statcast numbers for teams as a whole.
Also 4.3 BsR on the basepaths (12th)...actually lower than I thought it would be, given the KAOS.
7th in SB totals, but 18th in SB%, albeit minor differences from their 77% to 82% (top ten grade). They were 8th in bases taken and bt%, so in sum they could say that their speed made a meaningful contribution to the offensive success.
They also struck out the 3rd most in the game, coming in "ahead" of Seattle and Colorado.
Hopefully some of this will be mitigated by removing O'Neill's 33.6% k rate, but his strike outs should be replaced by Trevor Story and his ~31.5% k rate in Boston. Casas will (hopefully) be more around his career average (26.9%), though it is a biiiiit concerning that his k rate has increased each year in MLB.
Hopefully some of this will be mitigated by removing O'Neill's 33.6% k rate, but his strike outs should be replaced by Trevor Story and his ~31.5% k rate in Boston. Casas will (hopefully) be more around his career average (26.9%), though it is a biiiiit concerning that his k rate has increased each year in MLB.
Bigger question for me is whether Rafaela can learn to take a walk from time to time. A defensive-first CF is fine but a .274 OBP ain't going to cut it.
I saw no appreciable change in his approach this year and he's shown negative growth on this end throughout his tenure in the minor leagues. Best to assume he is who he is.
This is the most likely answer, though I maintain hope that it's something they'll work to address in the offseason.
2024 Red Sox hitters K%/BB%, >80 PA:
Bobby Dalbec 46.2/8.6
Tyler O'Neill 33.6/11.2
Triston Casas 31.7/12.3
Trevor Story 31.1/10.4
Nick Sogard 29.1/.8.1
Wilyer Abreu 28.0/8.9
Romy Gonzalez 26.9/5.6
Ceddanne Rafaela 26.4/2.6
Rob Refsnyder 25.4/9.1
David Hamilton 25.2/6.9
Reese McGuire 24.7/8.2
Rafael Devers 24.5/11.1
Enmanuel Valdez 23.8/7.6
Connor Wong 23.4/5.7
Dominic Smith 23.4/9.0
Jarren Duran 21.8/7.3
Vaughn Grissom 21.1/6.1
Danny Jansen 19.8/15.6
Masataka Yoshida 12.4/6.4
I've bolded the numbers from this exercise that seem interesting to me.
Bobby Dalbec 46.2/8.6
Tyler O'Neill 33.6/11.2
Triston Casas 31.7/12.3
Trevor Story 31.1/10.4
Nick Sogard 29.1/.8.1
Wilyer Abreu 28.0/8.9
Romy Gonzalez 26.9/5.6
Ceddanne Rafaela 26.4/2.6
Rob Refsnyder 25.4/9.1
David Hamilton 25.2/6.9
Reese McGuire 24.7/8.2
Rafael Devers 24.5/11.1
Enmanuel Valdez 23.8/7.6
Connor Wong 23.4/5.7
Dominic Smith 23.4/9.0
Jarren Duran 21.8/7.3
Vaughn Grissom 21.1/6.1
Danny Jansen 19.8/15.6
Masataka Yoshida 12.4/6.4
I've bolded the numbers from this exercise that seem interesting to me.
- Triston Casas struck out a lot more than he has in the past. These mostly came shortly after his return from injury, and in a rough slump in early-to-mid September.
- Story walked an awful lot, certainly more than he has in Boston. Tiny sample, even for a fast stabilizing stat like that, but something to watch.
- Devers has never had a walk rate above 10% and he came in above 11%. That rules.
- Duran markedly improved his K rate and his walk rate, and he did so by chasing less and making more contact.
- Vaughn Grissom's minor league strikeout rates were in the 10%–15% range.
- I feel like Yoshida should walk more, given how little he chases. But he just makes so much contact that I guess the at bats end in balls in play.