2024 HOF Ballot
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
They each had 15-20 year careers and threw the equivalent of about a months worth of innings in the playoffs spread out over a decade, judging their whole career based on if they had 1 small sample size of pitching well combined with luck seems pretty silly.
True, but its the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Statistical Greatness, and something that gets you fame (or detracts from your fame) is your performance on the biggest stage.
Rollins Utley is an interesting argument
Do you value defense and speed (and memorability) in your MIF or do you value batting and ability to get plunked?
Also Jones lost much of his defensive value. He became a part-time corner OF/DH.
Neither of them should even sniff the Hall while Lou Whitaker sits on the outside...
What I didn't realize until comparing their stats is that Whitaker was a better hitter than Trammell. From long ago I had the impression it was the other way around. Now looking at it I see Trammell had a higher batting average (which is likely why he was perceived as better back whenever I formed my impression) but Whitaker is ahead in OBP, SLG and OPS+. Anyway I agree with this, there's no doubt in my mind Whitaker should be in — it's great that Trammell finally went in but it's hard to understand why him and not the other guy too.
As for Utley and Rollins, I certainly understand why they are discussed together but the parallel with Trammell and Whitaker breaks down a little because Rollins just wasn't that good. Whitaker and Trammell have lifetime bWARs of 75.1 and 70.6; Utley is at 64.5, not as great but in the conversation. But Rollins is 47.6. He won an MVP in his career year when like 6 guys had better years than him (including Utley!) but that best year was just 6.1 WAR. Utley had five seasons in a row all better than that. Obviously Rollins was a very good baseball player and I'd love it if Marcelo Mayer had his career for the Red Sox, but he just doesn't really compare to those other guys.
I am a HUGE Alan Trammell fan but Whitaker was very underappreciated and just as good. Two things held Lou back -- Trammell played SS, which is the more glamorous position, and the Detroit beat writers (assholes like Joe Falls) always pounded a low-key racist narrative that Whitaker, who was so good he made things LOOK easy, was lazy, didn't hustle, got by on talent and was "nonchalant." Or that he was sullen -- when the truth is that he was a very nice guy who was also very quiet and unassuming, in keeping with his Jehovah's Witness faith (which is also why he didn't come onto the field for the National Anthem, which made all the old, white conservative writers fall onto their fainting couches). Or that he was flaky (he injured himself on the dance floor at a wedding one time and he left his uniform in a cab when he was traveling for the ASG and had to wear a replica from a souvenir stand -- which is honestly something that could have happened to anyone). Plus, the Tigers organization always did a terrible job promoting their stars -- their PR and marketing was always 40 years behind the times.
Joe Posnanski has been using Bill James' Win Shares in his HOF columns this week. He's putting them out there because it's interesting how it follows and diverges from WAR and they're hard to look up on your own. On first glance, Win Shares seem to match up better with how the players were seen during their careers. Rollins is a little ahead of Utley. Sheffield is right up there with Manny. And Andrew Jones isn't really close to Hall worthy (said to be around 325 by James).
- Alex Rodriguez, 492 Win Shares
- Gary Sheffield, 430
- Manny Ramirez, 408
- Adrian Beltré, 373
- Carlos Beltran, 369
- Bobby Abreu, 356
- Todd Helton, 318
- Joe Mauer: 305
- Jimmy Rollins, 305
- Chase Utley, 291
- Adrián González, 286
- Omar Vizquel, 282
- Torii Hunter, 277
- Andruw Jones, 276
- David Wright, 267
- Matt Holliday, 266
- José Reyes, 257
- Victor Martinez, 230
- José Bautista, 227
- Andy Pettitte, 224
- Mark Buehrle, 220
- Brandon Phillips, 207
- Bartolo Colon, 205
- Billy Wagner, 182.1
- Francisco Rodriguez, 168
- James Shields, 133
This looks ok other than Sheffield being ahead of Manny and Vizquel being ahead of AJones and and Abreu being ahead of Helton and Wright being so so lightly ahead of Reyes and Holliday.
Depressing but not really surprising that that's the case. This discussion is making me into a more emphatic Whitaker supporter!
It's interesting to look at the top 10 players by bWAR who have been retired long enough to be eligible for the Hall, but are not in it. They are:
4. Barry Bonds (162.8)
8. Roger Clemens (139.2)
16. Alex Rodriguez (117.5)
67. Pete Rose (79.6)
68. Curt Schilling (79.5)
78. Jim McCormick (76.2)
81. Bill Dahlen (75.3)
83. Lou Whitaker (75.1)
93. Rafael Palmeiro (71.9)
96. Bobby Grich (71.1)
At the top you've got these three absolute inner-circle HoF-caliber players who are not in because of steroid things. Then two guys who are not in because they are various flavors of asshole. McCormick played ten seasons in the 1870s and 1880s and (apparently!) pitched over 500 innings 4 years in a row, but voters understandably may be reluctant to honor a player who played in such a different environment. Dahlen was a shortstop in the 1890s and 1900s, who has received a number of votes for the Hall from the recent old-timers committees, but hasn’t made it in.
Then there's Whitaker, and a little further down is another steroid guy (Palmeiro) and then Bobby Grich. So in this measure, Whitaker is the best modern player who was kept out of the Hall for, apparently, purely sporting reasons, with Grich number two. From this we learn that 75 bWAR is the absolute talent cutoff for the HoF — no one has more than that and isn't in unless he did something else to make voters mad. Players above that threshold who are not yet eligible include Pujols, Beltre, Trout, Verlander, Kershaw and Greinke, with Scherzer right at 75.
Of course, the vast majority of players in the low 70s are in as well, most in the high 60s, and many below that. The next few who are out are Beltran (70.1), Rick Reuschel (69.5) and Manny (69.3).
Not sure how seriously WAR should be treated if Manny, Gwynn and Miggy are all outside of the top 100
The 1984 Tigers are probably one of my favorite teams of all time, which is odd, since I’m not a Tigers fan at all. However, I was 9 then, they got off to that incredible (40-4?) start, and I loved Whitaker, Trammel, Gibson and Chet Lemon.
I was just lazy typing out names. I loved that whole team as a kid. It’s the first team set I ever put together as a kid and at one point as an adult, I had started getting all the 84 Topps cards signed but just eventually stopped.
As far as the HOF goes, Beltre is a lock. At this point they’ve let so many mediocre players that I really don’t get excited for this anymore, unless it’s a former Sox player, or someone I particularly enjoyed watching play.
Why? Are you saying their terrible fielding (and Miggy's last 7 years of bad hitting too) didn't cost their teams wins?
Not as many as WAR would have you believe. Manny and Sheffield's teams never seemed to have problems winning games even with them in the field. I think it vastly overestimates the value of defense in both directions. Baseball front offices have the best stat departments there are and they don't hand out big salaries to defensive specialists, either. So I think they tend to agree.
I get the draw of WAR. We've been given instant access to every kind of stat we want in the last few years and it can be overwhelming. It's nice to have a single number to point to as the one true value. But I think it's built on a foundation of like 50% bullshit and is used in ways it was never intended by the inventors. None of them would tell you that an MVP should just be the aWARd, but so many arguments start and end there.
Sheffield had 1K more AB’s than Manny, though. Also not sure what we are arguing about as Manny and Sheffield look pretty great by WAR, win shares, etc. Sheffield being slightly ahead of Manny is a function of him being a better defensive player and having a longer career.
They didn't have problems winning with them in the field when they played on loaded teams
I buy that defensive stats are inherently dodgy and often don't agree with each other, but when they all kinda agree that Manny's 2005 & 2006 were both in the top 10 worst defensive seasons in the past 20 years, I don't think it's a stretch to say he probably would have been a greater asset to a team with a vacancy at DH.
Defense is important! There's a good reason we only have two dedicated DHs in the HOF.
Defense is important! There's a good reason we only have two dedicated DHs in the HOF.
Actually three if you count Harold Baines (along with Ortiz and Martinez).
In the same respects, maybe only six or seven players know for their defense in the HoF.
But now that Edgar broke the DH seal, I assume that more will go into Cooperstown.
The good reason is that it's only been a position for 50 years and there haven't been very many full time DHs in general. Is there a DH out there who was a great hitter that has been overlooked by the HOF voters because they didn't play defense?
Even if were true that Manny's 2005 and 2006 were some of the worst defensive seasons ever, what is that really worth? Baseball by definition is 50% offense and 50% defense. For the offensive 50%, value is probably 45 hitting and 5 or less baserunning. On the other side, how do you split pitching and defense? Pedro put up some of the best seasons ever with crummy defensive teams. I'd guess it's something like 40-10. If that's the case, hitting should be 4.5x (45% vs 10%) as valuable as defense and the range between the best and worst oWAR should be 4.5x as big as the range between the best and worst dWAR. But that's not the case. This year there's a 10 oWAR difference between the top and bottom and 6 dWAR. That's less than 2x different. Judge kind of broke the oWAR scale last year, but it was similar 2x range.
There are three possible explanations we can draw from that.
1. There's twice as large a variance between good and bad defenders than good and bad hitters, especially in the outfield.
2. Pitching and defense are equally responsible for preventing runs.
3. WAR severely overvalues defense compared to offense.
I don't find the first two particularly believable, so I'm inclined to go with 3.
The only primary DH who was known for being the best at the position prior to Baines and Edgar really was Hal McRae. Top 10 players who had the most regular season starts at DH:
Bold is HOF; underline is played significant time at other positions
Ortiz
Baines
McRae
Edgar
Frank Thomas (1,310 as DH; 971 at 1B)
Don Baylor (1,287 DH; 970 OF/1B)
Paul Molitor (1,495 INF/OF; 1,174 as DH)
Chili Davis (1,184 in outfield; 1,160 as DH)
Travis Hafner
Nelson Cruz (1,046 DH; 970 in OF)
Obviously Papi's defense was worse because he couldn't even get on the field. What do we do with that?
Well, I totally agree. I'm just tired reading the infinite posts about Manny's defense when he was on about the only AL team that would have put him in the field. And, by the way, it all seemed to work out OK from my seat.
I'd just add that Manny played the position in the field where defense matters the least (especially in Fenway), but he hit in a spot in the lineup that was very important to the offense. The idea that his defense was soooo bad as these stats would indicate just doesn't hold water.
He'd have been a greater asset to an inferior team. His ability to at least occupy left kept Ortiz in the line up.
Committee options are out...
ETA: (My bad, didn't realize this was old news)
View: https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1729186886739251264
ETA: (My bad, didn't realize this was old news)
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That's actually news from a few weeks ago but every time I see the list the Cito Gaston nomination seems more absurd than before. He won back-to-back championships with the most talented roster in baseball at the time (though they topped out at 96 regular season wins), and outside of that, he managed for 10 years with a 703-704 record. He had a reputation for his hands-off, stay-out-of-the-way managerial style.
I imagine that Gaston's inclusion is less his won-loss record and more that he was the first African American manager to win the World Series. And he did it twice.
I'll sing a brief song for Bobby Abreu, a classic "Hall of Very Good" player and a darling of fantasy baseball and Baseball Prospectus in the early 2000's. He was at the forefront of a wave of excellent Venezuelan ballplayers--among them Magglio Ordonez, Johan Santana, Carlos Guillen, Freddy Garcia, and Melvin Mora. Abreu was an absolute horse--played all 162 games twice 1998-2011 and only played fewer than 150 games once from 1998-2011 (142 games in 2011). That span, his age 24-37 years, marked his career as a full-time player.
An adequate but reliable corner outfielder (though he did win a GG in 2004 almost certainly fueled by his offense), Abreu was a machine at the plate. He had a tangible amount of pop, but matched it with speed on the base paths, averaging 20 HR and 28 SB in that thirteen year career. He maintained an OBP just south of .400 and averaged an OPS+ of 130. In his best year, playing for the 2004 Phillies, he had over 100 runs and RBI, 30 home runs, 40 stolen bases, and walked more times than he struck out (127BB/116SO).
Guy won't, and probably shouldn't, come close to the HoF, but his combination of speed, power, batting eye, and durability puts him in pretty rare company. He was on lousy teams and didn't get much in the way of recognition (All-Star twice, never top-15 in MVP, one Silver Slugger). He looked like a block of wood but moved surprisingly fast. I remember coveting him in fantasy and being royally annoyed when the Yankees traded for him. Just a hell of a ballplayer to have on your team.
An adequate but reliable corner outfielder (though he did win a GG in 2004 almost certainly fueled by his offense), Abreu was a machine at the plate. He had a tangible amount of pop, but matched it with speed on the base paths, averaging 20 HR and 28 SB in that thirteen year career. He maintained an OBP just south of .400 and averaged an OPS+ of 130. In his best year, playing for the 2004 Phillies, he had over 100 runs and RBI, 30 home runs, 40 stolen bases, and walked more times than he struck out (127BB/116SO).
Guy won't, and probably shouldn't, come close to the HoF, but his combination of speed, power, batting eye, and durability puts him in pretty rare company. He was on lousy teams and didn't get much in the way of recognition (All-Star twice, never top-15 in MVP, one Silver Slugger). He looked like a block of wood but moved surprisingly fast. I remember coveting him in fantasy and being royally annoyed when the Yankees traded for him. Just a hell of a ballplayer to have on your team.
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Abreu was an onbase machine and a pleasure to watch hit for NY but I have to take strong exception to this:
Manny Ramirez: -21.7 (9774 PAs)
Jason Giambi: -19.7 (8908 PAs)
Bobby Abreu: -10.9 (10081 PAs)
Bernie Williams: -9.5 (9053 PAs)
Kyle Schwarber: -9.5 (3968 PAs) (yikes!!!)
Derek Jeter: -9.4 (12602 PAs)
Then I found a page listing the worst defenders of all time, most of these guys are on there but also relevant to this HOF discussion is that Gary Sheffield has the worst career dWAR that I see for anyone at an incredible -27.7.
https://www.stadiumtalk.com/s/worst-mlb-defensive-players-ea1694ada4234c8f
He was horrendous even in the tiny NY RF, his defensive efforts in NY were constantly mocked and legitimately so. More than maybe any other OFer I've ever seen, he would always slow up when approaching fences. This is actually prudent and probably makes sense in the big picture but it sure did lead to a lot of catchable balls turning into hits. For my own curiosity, I looked up some alltime career cumulative dWARs:
Manny Ramirez: -21.7 (9774 PAs)
Jason Giambi: -19.7 (8908 PAs)
Bobby Abreu: -10.9 (10081 PAs)
Bernie Williams: -9.5 (9053 PAs)
Kyle Schwarber: -9.5 (3968 PAs) (yikes!!!)
Derek Jeter: -9.4 (12602 PAs)
Then I found a page listing the worst defenders of all time, most of these guys are on there but also relevant to this HOF discussion is that Gary Sheffield has the worst career dWAR that I see for anyone at an incredible -27.7.
https://www.stadiumtalk.com/s/worst-mlb-defensive-players-ea1694ada4234c8f
That's good stuff to know. I was going mostly off of BRef's numbers (which I only partially understand) that seemed to put him around league average. I'd read that Philly fans had the exact same issue--he was extremely risk-averse in going for balls, a particularly stark comparison to his OF peer Jim Edmonds (though I think many now attribute Edmond's outfield acrobatics to poor route running).
A great story about the late John Adams, the late Cleveland drummer, and how his drum wound up in Cooperstown.
https://theathletic.com/5087358/2023/11/28/cleveland-drummer-john-adams-cooperstown/
I didn't realize the Guardians wore a patch this season in his honor
attn @Sad Sam Jones
https://theathletic.com/5087358/2023/11/28/cleveland-drummer-john-adams-cooperstown/
I didn't realize the Guardians wore a patch this season in his honor
attn @Sad Sam Jones
This is accurate. It was probably the number 1 complaint people had about him, other than his (alleged) passivity at the plate with runners on base. I remember John Marzano (not the poster) being especially hard on him.
As for Utley and Rollins, I think it's been covered well that they will have different obstacles to get in. Rollins can get in through traditional counting stats and Utley through his peak years. They both deserve to have their numbers retired (If the team changes its asinine "unofficial" policy that they will only retire a number if the player is in the HOF.)
And then there's ballots like this one.
View: https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs/status/1730679198422086089
View: https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs/status/1730679198422086089
Sheffield was never suspended for steroids. And I tend to believe him that he was just doing what Barry Bonds suggested when they were together, but stopped when he learned what was going on. A-Rod but not Manny is a weird one.