2024-25 Yankees Offseason

jon abbey

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I'd bet a lot that they offered Gil and are now putting out that spin to make it seem to Gil like he was never at risk of being dealt.
 

jon abbey

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From a position player side, the way to look at it is not that the Yankees need to replace Soto. They need to replace Soto (RF), Verdugo (LF), Rizzo (1B) and Gleyber (2B) and quite possibly still only have one of those four replacements on the team (Dominguez to CF with Judge to RF).
 

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I wanted Tucker. Damn. I guess we'll have to get him in July when the Cubs realize they actually suck and Tucker doesn't want to live in Chicago.
 

Snatch Catch

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I'd bet a lot that they offered Gil and are now putting out that spin to make it seem to Gil like he was never at risk of being dealt.
I'm probably in the minority, but I actively hope they move Gil this offseason. I love his stuff and what he looks like when he's been dominant, but the profile of a guy who posts a 4.57 BB/9 in what is considered his breakout season makes me very apprehensive about buying into him going forward. His walk rate last season (12.1%) is the 3rd worst in any of the 647 Major League pitching seasons over the past decade in which a player threw 150 innings: 645th out of 647 according to Fangraphs. The only guys higher than him were 2023 Snell and 2017 Wade Miley. While most seasons in that region of the list do not have meaningful careers, the handful of pitchers besides Snell who do with a profile similar to Luis (double digit K/9 and a BB/9 over 4) were singular seasons from Snell, Charlie Morton, Robbie Ray, and Lance McCullers.

I know it's a bit simplistic, but the surrounding crowd in that area of the list aren't the type of guys that I would want to place much meaningful expectation on, so if the perceived value of Gil is high right now I'm all about cashing in.
 
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jon abbey

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I'm probably in the minority, but I actively hope they move Gil this offseason. I love his stuff and what he looks like when he's been dominant, but the profile of a guy who posts a 4.57 BB/9 in what is considered his breakout season makes me very apprehensive about buying into him going forward. His walk rate last season (12.1%) is the 3rd worst in any of the 647 Major League pitching seasons over the past decade in which a player threw 150 innings: 645th out of 647 according to Fangraphs. The only guys higher than him were 2023 Snell and 2017 Wade Miley. While most seasons in that region of the list do not have meaningful careers, the handful of pitchers who do with a profile similar to Luis (double digit K/9 and a BB/9 over 4) were singular seasons from Snell, Charlie Morton, Robbie Ray, and Lance McCullers.

I know it's a bit simplistic, but the surrounding crowd in that area of the list aren't the type of guys that I would want to place much meaningful expectation on, so if the perceived value of Gil is high right now I'm all about cashing in.
Cashing in for what though? And replacing him this year with who?

To me it's almost the opposite, Gil was unhittable when he threw strikes last year. BA against in 2024:

Tarik Skubal (192 innings): .201

Chris Sale (177.2 innings): .216

Blake Snell (104 innings): .174

Luis Gil (151.2 innings): .189

He wasn't ready for a full season of work yet last year, but he was pretty remarkable for a few months. To me it's 'easier' to throw more strikes than to make your stuff harder to hit, so I'm very excited about how he can build on last season. I'm not against trading him either, but it needs to be for something good if it happens.
 

jon abbey

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The recent Yankees are very good at getting quality players, their weakness, over and over, is actually utilizing those players in the best possible way. It reminds me of that Seinfeld episode where the rental car agency does not have a car for Jerry's reservation, and he says "you know how to *take* the reservation, you just don't know how to *hold* the reservation." Cashman knows how to get the players, he's not so good at actually using them.
 

jon abbey

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Peraza got added to the 40 man after 2020. He is still just 24, and he has had injury issues but that is four full seasons of him on the 40 man and he still only has 232 MLB ABs. I don't guess about this kind of thing much but I think that Volpe feels threatened by Peraza (Peraza was ahead of him before he was promoted, AAA/AA) and that is part of the reason he has not gotten more chances. I always thought it was odd that he didn't (I have posted about it a lot) but Peraza played a game at 3B this year next to Volpe and the tension was palpable. Volpe kept calling him off, a few balls that clearly weren't his even with him being the SS, and finally there was an easy pop up behind 3B, barely fair and clearly Peraza's ball. Volpe calls him off but he knows he is wrong and so the Gold Glover drops it.

https://www.tiktok.com/@yankeeshighlights27/video/7403913782633729310

I'm not totally sure how Volpe and Peraza would have progressed on a completely even playing field (and every set of circumstances is different anyway) but NY has given Volpe every chance when it has never been so clear (to me anyway) that he is definitely the superior player.

TL/DR: All I am saying, is give Peraza a chance.

But it depends who it is, heh, Peraza can start the season as a bench guy too. :)
 

jon abbey

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It's hard to decide who to hope for without knowing NY's restrictions. I think the IFA thing they did this week maybe allowed them to sign another QO guy and take the $1M penalty (if I have it right, penalties for this winter are for the period starting Jan 2026, but presumably they will do something similar to today and move someone from that year into the one starting Jan 2025, replacing the one they moved forward today with a bit of help from BOS).

There are a bunch of options still at 1B, FA and trade (Nathaniel Lowe from TEX?). I still like Carlos Santana, who led all 1B in DRS last year, is a switch-hitter, and a guaranteed hardfought AB. He will be 39 in April but had a 2.5 bWAR season last year in 521 ABs, 109 OPS+.
 

jon abbey

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A Bellinger/Nico Hoerner package could be one stop shopping, and NY shouldn't have to give up much in return.

Chisholm 3B (L)
Judge RF (R)
Bellinger LF (L)
Stanton DH (R)
Dominguez CF (S)
Wells C (L)
Volpe SS (R)
Santana 1B (S)
Hoerner 2B (R)

Cole
Fried
Gil
Rodon
Schmidt

If you have money left, go after Tanner Scott too. They are around $260M currently and will presumably still move Stroman's $18M.
 

Snatch Catch

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Cashing in for what though? And replacing him this year with who?

To me it's almost the opposite, Gil was unhittable when he threw strikes last year. BA against in 2024:

Tarik Skubal (192 innings): .201

Chris Sale (177.2 innings): .216

Blake Snell (104 innings): .174

Luis Gil (151.2 innings): .189

He wasn't ready for a full season of work yet last year, but he was pretty remarkable for a few months. To me it's 'easier' to throw more strikes than to make your stuff harder to hit, so I'm very excited about how he can build on last season. I'm not against trading him either, but it needs to be for something good if it happens.
I totally get the upside and see it - it's not just projection with him based on physical attributes, stuff, and makeup. He has produced work at the ML level that has yielded elite results. This isn't about thinking that "he sucks", but instead what I see as a common outcome of a pitcher with his profile. As you point out, when he's right it looks magical - from the start of the season through his June 14th start against the Red Sox, Gil threw 80 innings across 14 starts, giving up just 39 hits and posting a 2.03 ERA. He was still walking a crazy high percentage of guys though (12.3%) in that time period, to the tune of 4.39 BB/9, which still would have led the league.

I think his upcoming season is a matter of perspective based on how you view his archetype.

1) This is a guy with elite stuff who, penciled into the 4th or 5th rotation spot, carries the threat of dominance each time he takes the mound for essentially league minimum salary, and this should be capitalized on by the Yankees while he's still cheap and they're up against a budget.

2) This is a guy with elite stuff who, coming off a season in which he won a major award (it's a lamp, you nincompoop), has a huge amount of value which might be at a career peak around the league, and this should be capitalized on by the Yankees while it's still fresh and the shine hasn't had an opportunity to fade.

Based on the general track record of nasty stuff/hard to hit/excessively high BB starters, I personally view his intoxicating upside as a lower probability outcome than I do the chance that he takes a step or more backwards via performance, injury, or both.

As far as what I would trade him for? Anything that filled a need on the roster, likely a position player. For me personally, the threat of his current value having a potential expiration date would have me looking for someone who would pay market rate for "elite stuff, unhittable, ROY starter with four years of control". Again though, I'm not hating on him and insisting he has to be dealt, I am just very focused on the potentially huge value he might hold right now, and the clear pathway I can see to it disappearing.
 

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Interesting post about Peraza abbey. I hope Volpe isn't that mentally fragile, but honestly, it wouldn't surprise me, given how tight he seems to play late in games at times. I want to see Peraza play more too, fighting for a starting job at 2B or 3B would be fine as long as he earns it. But what I'd really like to see is to see is him playing three times a week or so cycling through 2B/SS/3B as a super sub. I'm tired of guys looking like shit because they're worn down. Especially Volpe.

And since you posted some other stuff while I was responding about Peraza, a couple of other points:

- With regard to 1B, I think if they really aren't focused on Walker, they'll pivot quickly to Santana or someone else once they figure out if they can get Bellinger. Though I really wouldn't mind Bellinger and Santana both, with Bellinger in LF and covering down on CF/RF/1B as necessary. I had no idea that Santana was still that good defensively.
- Nico isn't a bad idea at all.
- I think I'd rather have upstate NY boy Jeff Hoffman than Tanner Scott, but either way, another good arm would make me happy. Guys go down every year.

Pitching and defense. Pitching and defense. Strongly improve those areas and hopefully at least some modest improvements from young guys improving (Volpe, Wells. Peraza, Dominguez, Cabrera), one guy settling in to the Bronx (Chisholm), and a little bit of new talent (LF, 1B, 2B/3B), wherever they can find it. Can't replace Soto's offense, but fewer black holes in the lineup would be great.
 

jon abbey

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As far as what I would trade him for? Anything that filled a need on the roster, likely a position player. For me personally, the threat of his current value having a potential expiration date would have me looking for someone who would pay market rate for "elite stuff, unhittable, ROY starter with four years of control". Again though, I'm not hating on him and insisting he has to be dealt, I am just very focused on the potentially huge value he might hold right now, and the clear pathway I can see to it disappearing.
OK, who though? I think NY can probably fill their multiple remaining holes with pretty solid pieces without giving up Gil, so I think it really has to be a difference maker. I would have been OK with him being the main guy for Tucker, Lombard in addition I would not have been thrilled about but they do have Arias too at least. But HOU was never going to send NY Tucker unless they really had no choice...
 

jon abbey

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Hoffman I think is being courted as a SP by a few teams (maybe including BOS), so that would put him out of NY's price range.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah I've been watching all of that, I think it is mostly people guessing without knowing anything because it seems so inevitable from both sides.
 

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Yeah I've been watching all of that, I think it is mostly people guessing without knowing anything because it seems so inevitable from both sides.
It could be that one of them said it and they are all parroting each other making it seem like something is actually happening.

Or someone actually has good info.
 

jon abbey

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If we’re down to paraphrasing Twitter buzz, Santander’s agent seems to be trying to sell the Yankees on him for 1B.
 

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+1 DRS in 72 innings in 2023. Only one inning at 1B this past season.

You don't know what kind of defense he'll provide, but you know you'll get a low OBP and get lots of short porch HRs. Not someone you lock down for the kind of deal he's almost certainly looking for and pay the QO penalty on top of it.
 

Snatch Catch

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OK, who though? I think NY can probably fill their multiple remaining holes with pretty solid pieces without giving up Gil, so I think it really has to be a difference maker. I would have been OK with him being the main guy for Tucker, Lombard in addition I would not have been thrilled about but they do have Arias too at least. But HOU was never going to send NY Tucker unless they really had no choice...
Honestly, I don't pretend to know specific player values at this point (I'd take a chance at engaging on a Royce Lewis deal. Can you build a prospect package around Gil for a guy like Michael Harris?), but what my ultimate goal is to stay away from "solid pieces" until there is an established framework of more impact ones. One of the main issues I have with the way this team has been constructed in the Hal years has been the lack of definitively impact position players. I agree with the idea of spreading the wealth around to fill multiple holes on a roster with established pillars, but not on one when they're counted on in a foundational capacity.

Forgive me if you find this too simplistic, but for a few years now I've had a sort of aversion to the Yankees banking on "3 WAR guys", whether by trade, free agency, or promotion. It's not that I think 3 WAR guys don't hold value - I mean, their worth is right there in the name - but instead the way the Yankees accumulate them instead, and in place of, the elite war production players. A little variance, a down season, and suddenly the 3 fWAR guy is a 1.7 fWAR player. My hope for the Yankees is to go the extra mile to procure players that have probable upside well in excess of 3 fWAR, as I do not believe championship teams in this era can be built on a plurality of solid pieces (3 WAR guys). It's why I'd have been willing to do just about whatever it takes on an overpay for a guy like Tucker. If Gil can bring in a positional player that has a shot at 4 fWAR on an average year, and greater in a good season, then that's worth it to me given the way I don't believe in the longterm viability of his general profile as a starter.

Just looking quickly at the best and/or highest payroll franchises in the four years since the pandemic, and the amount of 4+ fWAR positional player seasons they've produced:

Dodgers - 12 seasons, by 8 different players
Astros - 11 seasons, by 5 different players
Braves - 9 seasons, by 7 different players
Padres - 9 seasons, by 7 different players
Phillies - 6 seasons, by 4 different players
Yankees - 4 seasons, by 2 different players (3 Judge, and 1 Soto)

Heck, the Rangers won a championship after they signed two 4+ fWAR guys (they have produced 7 seasons by 3 different players in the above timeframe, and all three of those guys did so in 2023 when they won).

Of course this isn't scientific, but it does speak to a lack of higher-end positional production the Yankees have had. Could Jasson and Volpe be in-house 4+ fWAR guys this season? Absolutely. Might Jazz be the 6 fWAR guy pace he was on after acquired? It's possible. For me though, I would like the Yankees to be pursuing elite WAR players with more diligence than I've seen over the past decade or so - even if those internal options hit. I know that's easier said than done (as you said earlier, you can't just click your heels together and wish for one), but they have hit the market over the years, and the Yankees have invariably found a reason not to end up with the player (Not the right fit, not the right attitude, existing contract is too expensive, future contract is too expensive, trade cost is too high, now is not the time, the other team is our mortal enemy, etc.).

In place of these big moves they rely on internal promotions and savvy acquisitions of solid pieces like Gio, and DJ, and Gleyber, and Trevino, and any number of "pretty good" positional players they've rostered. And they end up paying many of these guys pretty good money. And what it has gotten them are pretty good results. As a fan, I'm hoping for more than that in the Yankees pursuits this offseason.
 
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jon abbey

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Funny, I thought of Royce Lewis too.

Thanks for the lengthy post, but it's still kind of abstract and NY needs to fill 2-3 holes right now. Also you are just talking about positional players, but NY has made three massive investments in the rotation in Cole/Fried/Rodon, and coupled with Judge/Stanton, even the richest teams have limits. So, yes, they need Volpe and Wells and Dominguez to blossom, but as for right now, 7-9 total WAR from 1B/2B/LF additions would make NY easily the best AL team on paper.

I get the sense that while Cashman is obviously under a lot of pressure, he also welcomes the freedom to fill these empty spots. If they do get Bellinger, that gives him even more flexibility.
 

jon abbey

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Heck, the Rangers won a championship after they signed two 4+ fWAR guys (they have produced 7 seasons by 3 different players in the above timeframe, and all three of those guys did so in 2023 when they won).
This makes it sound like 2023 TEX was a powerhouse, when in reality they went 15-15 in their final 30 regular season games, blew the division in the final week by losing 4 of their final 6, and were lucky to squeak in as the final wild card by one game over TOR. This is my issue with the kind of mathematical analysis you posted above (but interesting to read!), I think it's much simpler to say 'keep doing your best to improve your team and then hope it's good enough', much more in keeping with the quasi-randomness of MLB IMO.
 

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This makes it sound like 2023 TEX was a powerhouse, when in reality they went 15-15 in their final 30 regular season games, blew the division in the final week by losing 4 of their final 6, and were lucky to squeak in as the final wild card by one game over TOR. This is my issue with the kind of mathematical analysis you posted above (but interesting to read!), I think it's much simpler to say 'keep doing your best to improve your team and then hope it's good enough', much more in keeping with the quasi-randomness of MLB IMO.
I agree - I only threw in Texas there at the end because, while I didn't consider them one of the elite organizations since the pandemic, they did win a championship. They just happened to go along with the point when I looked the specifics up (Garcia and Seager, two of their three 4+ fWAR guys that year, combined for a 200 wRC+ across 150 total PAs that postseason. Incredible.)

I also totally agree with "keep doing your best to improve your team", it makes the most sense and removes bias. I think the question arises then about how one defines best in the context of that edict. That's probably where we differ - I don't believe that the Yankees under Hal have routinely done their best when it comes to improving their team. I think there's a lot of making the best of what's left, or what manages to pass through a set of organizational filters, and they do really impressive work at the margins. They have smart people making good decisions throughout the organization, it just feels like there's a governor to me.

The quasi-randomness of the postseason you bring up has done a number on me over the past decade or so. As an early-adopter of the notion that you just need to assemble a quality roster, get there, do your best, and then hope it plays out in your favor, I've been increasingly alarmed at the predictability with which the Yankees have been eliminated from the postseason. Outside of maybe 2017, it reminds me of the Knicks lottery performance: either stay where you were slated, end up worse than predicted, but never move up. Like the Knicks, maybe it really is just a run of bad luck, but I keep coming back to the idea that there's more to it than simple probability. The Dodgers scouting quotes in the aftermath of the WS didn't do much to assuage those fears.
 

Nacl

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I think you are underestimating how rare a player with a consistent 3 WAR floor is. Looking at Fangraphs, I came up with 52 players that have had a 3 WAR season 3 of the last 4 years, they are either young players under control who would cost a lot in terms of prospects or have already hit free agency and are expensive.
 

Wingack

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Honestly, I don't pretend to know specific player values at this point (I'd take a chance at engaging on a Royce Lewis deal. Can you build a prospect package around Gil for a guy like Michael Harris?), but what my ultimate goal is to stay away from "solid pieces" until there is an established framework of more impact ones. One of the main issues I have with the way this team has been constructed in the Hal years has been the lack of definitively impact position players. I agree with the idea of spreading the wealth around to fill multiple holes on a roster with established pillars, but not on one when they're counted on in a foundational capacity.

Forgive me if you find this too simplistic, but for a few years now I've had a sort of aversion to the Yankees banking on "3 WAR guys", whether by trade, free agency, or promotion. It's not that I think 3 WAR guys don't hold value - I mean, their worth is right there in the name - but instead the way the Yankees accumulate them instead, and in place of, the elite war production players. A little variance, a down season, and suddenly the 3 fWAR guy is a 1.7 fWAR player. My hope for the Yankees is to go the extra mile to procure players that have probable upside well in excess of 3 fWAR, as I do not believe championship teams in this era can be built on a plurality of solid pieces (3 WAR guys). It's why I'd have been willing to do just about whatever it takes on an overpay for a guy like Tucker. If Gil can bring in a positional player that has a shot at 4 fWAR on an average year, and greater in a good season, then that's worth it to me given the way I don't believe in the longterm viability of his general profile as a starter.

Just looking quickly at the best and/or highest payroll franchises in the four years since the pandemic, and the amount of 4+ fWAR positional player seasons they've produced:

Dodgers - 12 seasons, by 8 different players
Astros - 11 seasons, by 5 different players
Braves - 9 seasons, by 7 different players
Padres - 9 seasons, by 7 different players
Phillies - 6 seasons, by 4 different players
Yankees - 4 seasons, by 2 different players (3 Judge, and 1 Soto)

Heck, the Rangers won a championship after they signed two 4+ fWAR guys (they have produced 7 seasons by 3 different players in the above timeframe, and all three of those guys did so in 2023 when they won).

Of course this isn't scientific, but it does speak to a lack of higher-end positional production the Yankees have had. Could Jasson and Volpe be in-house 4+ fWAR guys this season? Absolutely. Might Jazz be the 6 fWAR guy pace he was on after acquired? It's possible. For me though, I would like the Yankees to be pursuing elite WAR players with more diligence than I've seen over the past decade or so - even if those internal options hit. I know that's easier said than done (as you said earlier, you can't just click your heels together and wish for one), but they have hit the market over the years, and the Yankees have invariably found a reason not to end up with the player (Not the right fit, not the right attitude, existing contract is too expensive, future contract is too expensive, trade cost is too high, now is not the time, the other team is our mortal enemy, etc.).

In place of these big moves they rely on internal promotions and savvy acquisitions of solid pieces like Gio, and DJ, and Gleyber, and Trevino, and any number of "pretty good" positional players they've rostered. And they end up paying many of these guys pretty good money. And what it has gotten them are pretty good results. As a fan, I'm hoping for more than that in the Yankees pursuits this offseason.
Oooh, I like kicking the tires on Royce Lewis and Michael Harris.
 

EvilEmpire

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I feel like we're getting into "let's just go get one of the good Seattle pitchers or Jared Jones" territory like on the main board.

Sure, you're always kicking the tires on young, cost controlled, elite potential players, but convincing a team to trade instead of building around them seems like it would require a big overpay*. And the Yankees can only do so much with that.

On a related note, how does Lewis still have five years of control left? I guess don't really understand how service time works or how injury time figures in.



* I guess Lewis' injury history could be a concern, but with so much control left, I dunno.
 

jon abbey

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That discussion started with NY making Gil (4 years left) available in the Tucker discussions (they now claim to have not dangled him but they definitely did), so it makes sense in that context, and NY does still have Stroman (ugh) if they traded Gil.
 

EvilEmpire

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That discussion started with NY making Gil (4 years left) available in the Tucker discussions (they now claim to have not dangled him but they definitely did), so it makes sense in that context, and NY does still have Stroman (ugh) if they traded Gil.
I'm aware.

I think Boston was trying to build deals around Wilyer Abreu, a kid who came out of nowhere to win a GG and come in sixth for ROY. Five years of control left.

Gil might have more in common with Abreu in terms of perceived value, even as a SP, than a #1 pick with tons of control like Lewis. I think Gil (and Abreu) will have a lot more value with another good year under their belts. Teams shouldn't be worried about them being flashes in the pan if they follow up well. I still think Gil was a great guy to build a deal around for one season of Tucker, but for Lewis I think the Twins would want more of a sure thing unless Lewis' medicals look bad or something.

But like I said, I agree Cashman should be kicking the tires on all the young, potentially elite talent. If Gil and Spencer Jones could bring back Lewis, I hope Cashman doesn't hesitate, injury concerns and all.
 

Snatch Catch

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I think you are underestimating how rare a player with a consistent 3 WAR floor is. Looking at Fangraphs, I came up with 52 players that have had a 3 WAR season 3 of the last 4 years...
Yeah, that's my bad for being ambiguous about meaning - If the lineup were Judge, Soto, and 7 players actually worth 3 fWAR, things would be great. I use 3 WAR guy as a shorthand for a player whose reasonable positive expectation heading into a season is right around 3 fWAR. So if there were two people arguing about a player, one for one against, neither would have a problem with classifying his potential contribution in the coming year as 3 WAR if all goes well. It also means that if everything doesn't go well, you're getting less than that.

Recent "3 WAR guy" full seasons with the Yankees (excluding the pandemic season):

Gleyber: 1.4, 2.6, 3.6, 1.7
Didi: 3.1, 2.5, 2.6, 3.3
Gio: 3.1, 1.2, 2.6
Rizzo: 2.2, 2.5, 0.8
DJL: had an amazing popup year, but then went 2.1, 3.1, 1.2

Hicks, Trevino, Bader, IKF, Donaldson, etc. When all these guys were Yankees there was never a reasonable expectations that they'd give anything more than 3.X fWAR. Outside of Soto, just about everyone that has played with Judge in the window that opened after his ROY season has been a 3 WAR guy - again, not because they dropped off, but because that's what the Yankees signed up for when they put them in the lineup. Bellinger has a couple of outliers, but I fear he falls into this category for me, too.

...they are either young players under control who would cost a lot in terms of prospects or have already hit free agency and are expensive.
Yes, and that's why I'm hoping they capitalize on what might be similar perceived value in Gil.
 

jon abbey

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The Fangraphs offseason team WAR projections always seem to have the Yankees too high collectively but they currently have them tops in the AL again, that is with Rice (1B), Cabrera (3B) and Grisham (CF, Dominguez in LF) all starting. Adding 7-9 WAR in those three spots plus maybe one more back end reliever and you have on paper what passes for a powerhouse in the AL currently.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=9

@Snatch Catch, your name was so familiar that I didn't realize you were new, but now I realize it is from NYFF (where I was banned long ago, heh). Welcome!!!
 

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I already messaged this to @Snatch Catch in a private message, but I am a huge fan of his and am glad he has come over here. He was one of the very few posters over at NYYF that I sought out to read his posts, especially on prospects and the draft.

Huge deal to have him hanging out over here.
 

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4,246
Arkansas
i am proud of the yankees for trying to win this is why as a kid i left the white sox they blew it up in 1997 when they where only 2 and a haif back of cle
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
25,348
Garden City
Would be surprised to see any breaking news after this week until the new year. Waiting game on Bellinger and no real urgency for Bregman.

My feelings on Bregman are that if he winds up being a February signing at a discount, he could come to us but if the Sox and everyone else are still circling for him, let him go.
 

Snatch Catch

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2024
72
Goodness, you guys know how to make a guy feel welcome! As someone who has a kind of obsession about "knowing/understanding stuff" in general, information and informed opinion is exciting to me. I would frequently check in on your threads over the years when things were going down because of the refined and concise nature of conversation that I've found to be the expectation of this sub forum. Thanks for having me here!

For the record, @Wingack, while I still do enjoy the lower level proceedings as much if not more than the actual team in the Bronx, I let the draft expertise lapse several years ago when setting aside hours of time while raising a family was no longer a net positive experience. But I still love following all the draft/mL stuff and having in-depth discussion about the unbronxed youth, and love that this is a place where I can learn new information or find interesting perspective.

Getting back to the general discussion of this offseason, I wasn't trying to derail the thread with WFAN wishcasting - I actually have no clue who the Yankees should pursue (I only answered because it was like my second post and I couldn't be perceived as a complete idiot right out the gate, though suggesting the possibility of Michael Harris may have inadvertently done just that), and yet I largely trust their talent evaluation/development. What I do have is an aversion to the style that they use in their pursuit of roster building. Logically jon's additional 7-9 WAR across 1B/3B/LF makes the team a powerhouse and one of the favorites for best record in the AL. I just worry that this approach - as a way of building the positional player roster - does not equate to a powerhouse when the regular season ends. I don't think it's a complete coincidence that when they added a second offensive tentpole, while not solving any of the offensive drought/RISP/defensive/focus issues that have plagued them in recent years, this regime went further than they ever had previously.

I'm still a huge believer in Volpe as a Bregman type, I love the potential of Wells and Jasson's bats as 120-130 or higher wRC+ guys, and Jazz being on a 6 fWAR pace in his third of a season with the Yankees has my attention. If these guys reach those marks, the Yankees suddenly have the type of lineup that the Dodgers, Braves, Padres, etc. have rolled out recently where there are 3-4 guys who you have to genuinely navigate. There is a lot of reasoning that is valid at the micro level when explaining why the Yankees did not/do not ever have that kind of lineup around Judge, but the macro view shows last year as the first time in Judge's career that he had a qualified teammate post a wRC+ above 140, and now Soto is gone. The previous high he had ever enjoyed was Giancarlo's 138 in 2021.
 

EvilEmpire

paying for his sins
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2007
18,205
Washington
I wonder what the offer for Bellinger is up to. Sure would like to see that resolved one way or another before some of the other 1B and OF options come off the board.
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
25,348
Garden City
Goodness, you guys know how to make a guy feel welcome! As someone who has a kind of obsession about "knowing/understanding stuff" in general, information and informed opinion is exciting to me. I would frequently check in on your threads over the years when things were going down because of the refined and concise nature of conversation that I've found to be the expectation of this sub forum. Thanks for having me here!

For the record, @Wingack, while I still do enjoy the lower level proceedings as much if not more than the actual team in the Bronx, I let the draft expertise lapse several years ago when setting aside hours of time while raising a family was no longer a net positive experience. But I still love following all the draft/mL stuff and having in-depth discussion about the unbronxed youth, and love that this is a place where I can learn new information or find interesting perspective.

Getting back to the general discussion of this offseason, I wasn't trying to derail the thread with WFAN wishcasting - I actually have no clue who the Yankees should pursue (I only answered because it was like my second post and I couldn't be perceived as a complete idiot right out the gate, though suggesting the possibility of Michael Harris may have inadvertently done just that), and yet I largely trust their talent evaluation/development. What I do have is an aversion to the style that they use in their pursuit of roster building. Logically jon's additional 7-9 WAR across 1B/3B/LF makes the team a powerhouse and one of the favorites for best record in the AL. I just worry that this approach - as a way of building the positional player roster - does not equate to a powerhouse when the regular season ends. I don't think it's a complete coincidence that when they added a second offensive tentpole, while not solving any of the offensive drought/RISP/defensive/focus issues that have plagued them in recent years, this regime went further than they ever had previously.

I'm still a huge believer in Volpe as a Bregman type, I love the potential of Wells and Jasson's bats as 120-130 or higher wRC+ guys, and Jazz being on a 6 fWAR pace in his third of a season with the Yankees has my attention. If these guys reach those marks, the Yankees suddenly have the type of lineup that the Dodgers, Braves, Padres, etc. have rolled out recently where there are 3-4 guys who you have to genuinely navigate. There is a lot of reasoning that is valid at the micro level when explaining why the Yankees did not/do not ever have that kind of lineup around Judge, but the macro view shows last year as the first time in Judge's career that he had a qualified teammate post a wRC+ above 140, and now Soto is gone. The previous high he had ever enjoyed was Giancarlo's 138 in 2021.
I think my version of this post is basically that Cashman has either not built a balanced and threatening lineup (outside of the main 1 or 2 guys) and/or has got unlucky with his free agents and trades the last couple of years. Players like DJ, Rizzo, and Donaldson who you expected to add a bit of a different look but didn't. IMO, he has been too slow to the draw to recognize what is working and what isn't.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
74,925
Also some of the guys not taken in the 40 man become relevant again now as 3rd or 4th chips in a deal. They have more value traded as opposed to having been chosen in the R5 because then the team can keep them in the minors, also off the 40 man until needed.

For instance, Zach Messinger is the guy many people expected to be taken in the R5, a 25 year old 6'6" righty who threw 150 innings of 3.06 ERA in AA last year.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
74,925
Are we worried that the Max Fried deal isn't official yet?
I was going to mention that also, I was going to say no because Jack Curry has been talking about it as a done deal a lot, but Fried's Instagram has a goodbye to ATL from two days ago but nothing Yankees yet. Holidays, who knows.

https://www.instagram.com/maxfried/?hl=en

Also it seems like forever ago but it was just six days ago, Devin Williams deal just three days ago.
 

Snatch Catch

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2024
72
I think my version of this post is basically that Cashman has either not built a balanced and threatening lineup (outside of the main 1 or 2 guys) and/or has got unlucky with his free agents and trades the last couple of years. Players like DJ, Rizzo, and Donaldson who you expected to add a bit of a different look but didn't. IMO, he has been too slow to the draw to recognize what is working and what isn't.
Yeah, it just hasn't worked with regards to the position players. They've made an effort to find guys who might be better than generally expected, but they've not made a concerted effort to just go and get guys that already are - especially when their "might be" guys demonstrate that they aren't. What makes me happy is that they haven't taken this approach with the rotation. Rodon hasn't been what they thought they were getting, but as a guy with nasty stuff and a proven history of being able to dominate ML hitters he's still a good get to try and stack on Cole. His and Fried's contracts are almost certain to be vile on the back end, and even though neither was high on my wishlist heading into their respective free agency periods, the fact that the Yankees went out and got two high-end producers to go with their anchor makes me happy. I can always get behind paying for legitimately elite production.

I feel like they have a really good shot at one or two of the young talent guys - Volpe, Wells, Jasson, Jazz - popping and becoming more than a 3 WAR guy. My goodness would that be a trajectory boost for this roster.

I had a busy day but I have to go back and give a shout out to SC's phrase for Yankee minor leaguers:

Bow down!
Thank you, sir. That one felt good leaving the fingertips. :)