I'm probably in the minority, but I actively hope they move Gil this offseason. I love his stuff and what he looks like when he's been dominant, but the profile of a guy who posts a 4.57 BB/9 in what is considered his breakout season makes me very apprehensive about buying into him going forward. His walk rate last season (12.1%) is the 3rd worst in any of the 647 Major League pitching seasons over the past decade in which a player threw 150 innings: 645th out of 647 according to Fangraphs. The only guys higher than him were 2023 Snell and 2017 Wade Miley. While most seasons in that region of the list do not have meaningful careers, the handful of pitchers besides Snell who do with a profile similar to Luis (double digit K/9 and a BB/9 over 4) were singular seasons from Snell, Charlie Morton, Robbie Ray, and Lance McCullers.I'd bet a lot that they offered Gil and are now putting out that spin to make it seem to Gil like he was never at risk of being dealt.
Cashing in for what though? And replacing him this year with who?I'm probably in the minority, but I actively hope they move Gil this offseason. I love his stuff and what he looks like when he's been dominant, but the profile of a guy who posts a 4.57 BB/9 in what is considered his breakout season makes me very apprehensive about buying into him going forward. His walk rate last season (12.1%) is the 3rd worst in any of the 647 Major League pitching seasons over the past decade in which a player threw 150 innings: 645th out of 647 according to Fangraphs. The only guys higher than him were 2023 Snell and 2017 Wade Miley. While most seasons in that region of the list do not have meaningful careers, the handful of pitchers who do with a profile similar to Luis (double digit K/9 and a BB/9 over 4) were singular seasons from Snell, Charlie Morton, Robbie Ray, and Lance McCullers.
I know it's a bit simplistic, but the surrounding crowd in that area of the list aren't the type of guys that I would want to place much meaningful expectation on, so if the perceived value of Gil is high right now I'm all about cashing in.
I totally get the upside and see it - it's not just projection with him based on physical attributes, stuff, and makeup. He has produced work at the ML level that has yielded elite results. This isn't about thinking that "he sucks", but instead what I see as a common outcome of a pitcher with his profile. As you point out, when he's right it looks magical - from the start of the season through his June 14th start against the Red Sox, Gil threw 80 innings across 14 starts, giving up just 39 hits and posting a 2.03 ERA. He was still walking a crazy high percentage of guys though (12.3%) in that time period, to the tune of 4.39 BB/9, which still would have led the league.Cashing in for what though? And replacing him this year with who?
To me it's almost the opposite, Gil was unhittable when he threw strikes last year. BA against in 2024:
Tarik Skubal (192 innings): .201
Chris Sale (177.2 innings): .216
Blake Snell (104 innings): .174
Luis Gil (151.2 innings): .189
He wasn't ready for a full season of work yet last year, but he was pretty remarkable for a few months. To me it's 'easier' to throw more strikes than to make your stuff harder to hit, so I'm very excited about how he can build on last season. I'm not against trading him either, but it needs to be for something good if it happens.
OK, who though? I think NY can probably fill their multiple remaining holes with pretty solid pieces without giving up Gil, so I think it really has to be a difference maker. I would have been OK with him being the main guy for Tucker, Lombard in addition I would not have been thrilled about but they do have Arias too at least. But HOU was never going to send NY Tucker unless they really had no choice...As far as what I would trade him for? Anything that filled a need on the roster, likely a position player. For me personally, the threat of his current value having a potential expiration date would have me looking for someone who would pay market rate for "elite stuff, unhittable, ROY starter with four years of control". Again though, I'm not hating on him and insisting he has to be dealt, I am just very focused on the potentially huge value he might hold right now, and the clear pathway I can see to it disappearing.
It could be that one of them said it and they are all parroting each other making it seem like something is actually happening.Yeah I've been watching all of that, I think it is mostly people guessing without knowing anything because it seems so inevitable from both sides.
Honestly, I don't pretend to know specific player values at this point (I'd take a chance at engaging on a Royce Lewis deal. Can you build a prospect package around Gil for a guy like Michael Harris?), but what my ultimate goal is to stay away from "solid pieces" until there is an established framework of more impact ones. One of the main issues I have with the way this team has been constructed in the Hal years has been the lack of definitively impact position players. I agree with the idea of spreading the wealth around to fill multiple holes on a roster with established pillars, but not on one when they're counted on in a foundational capacity.OK, who though? I think NY can probably fill their multiple remaining holes with pretty solid pieces without giving up Gil, so I think it really has to be a difference maker. I would have been OK with him being the main guy for Tucker, Lombard in addition I would not have been thrilled about but they do have Arias too at least. But HOU was never going to send NY Tucker unless they really had no choice...
This makes it sound like 2023 TEX was a powerhouse, when in reality they went 15-15 in their final 30 regular season games, blew the division in the final week by losing 4 of their final 6, and were lucky to squeak in as the final wild card by one game over TOR. This is my issue with the kind of mathematical analysis you posted above (but interesting to read!), I think it's much simpler to say 'keep doing your best to improve your team and then hope it's good enough', much more in keeping with the quasi-randomness of MLB IMO.Heck, the Rangers won a championship after they signed two 4+ fWAR guys (they have produced 7 seasons by 3 different players in the above timeframe, and all three of those guys did so in 2023 when they won).
I agree - I only threw in Texas there at the end because, while I didn't consider them one of the elite organizations since the pandemic, they did win a championship. They just happened to go along with the point when I looked the specifics up (Garcia and Seager, two of their three 4+ fWAR guys that year, combined for a 200 wRC+ across 150 total PAs that postseason. Incredible.)This makes it sound like 2023 TEX was a powerhouse, when in reality they went 15-15 in their final 30 regular season games, blew the division in the final week by losing 4 of their final 6, and were lucky to squeak in as the final wild card by one game over TOR. This is my issue with the kind of mathematical analysis you posted above (but interesting to read!), I think it's much simpler to say 'keep doing your best to improve your team and then hope it's good enough', much more in keeping with the quasi-randomness of MLB IMO.
Oooh, I like kicking the tires on Royce Lewis and Michael Harris.Honestly, I don't pretend to know specific player values at this point (I'd take a chance at engaging on a Royce Lewis deal. Can you build a prospect package around Gil for a guy like Michael Harris?), but what my ultimate goal is to stay away from "solid pieces" until there is an established framework of more impact ones. One of the main issues I have with the way this team has been constructed in the Hal years has been the lack of definitively impact position players. I agree with the idea of spreading the wealth around to fill multiple holes on a roster with established pillars, but not on one when they're counted on in a foundational capacity.
Forgive me if you find this too simplistic, but for a few years now I've had a sort of aversion to the Yankees banking on "3 WAR guys", whether by trade, free agency, or promotion. It's not that I think 3 WAR guys don't hold value - I mean, their worth is right there in the name - but instead the way the Yankees accumulate them instead, and in place of, the elite war production players. A little variance, a down season, and suddenly the 3 fWAR guy is a 1.7 fWAR player. My hope for the Yankees is to go the extra mile to procure players that have probable upside well in excess of 3 fWAR, as I do not believe championship teams in this era can be built on a plurality of solid pieces (3 WAR guys). It's why I'd have been willing to do just about whatever it takes on an overpay for a guy like Tucker. If Gil can bring in a positional player that has a shot at 4 fWAR on an average year, and greater in a good season, then that's worth it to me given the way I don't believe in the longterm viability of his general profile as a starter.
Just looking quickly at the best and/or highest payroll franchises in the four years since the pandemic, and the amount of 4+ fWAR positional player seasons they've produced:
Dodgers - 12 seasons, by 8 different players
Astros - 11 seasons, by 5 different players
Braves - 9 seasons, by 7 different players
Padres - 9 seasons, by 7 different players
Phillies - 6 seasons, by 4 different players
Yankees - 4 seasons, by 2 different players (3 Judge, and 1 Soto)
Heck, the Rangers won a championship after they signed two 4+ fWAR guys (they have produced 7 seasons by 3 different players in the above timeframe, and all three of those guys did so in 2023 when they won).
Of course this isn't scientific, but it does speak to a lack of higher-end positional production the Yankees have had. Could Jasson and Volpe be in-house 4+ fWAR guys this season? Absolutely. Might Jazz be the 6 fWAR guy pace he was on after acquired? It's possible. For me though, I would like the Yankees to be pursuing elite WAR players with more diligence than I've seen over the past decade or so - even if those internal options hit. I know that's easier said than done (as you said earlier, you can't just click your heels together and wish for one), but they have hit the market over the years, and the Yankees have invariably found a reason not to end up with the player (Not the right fit, not the right attitude, existing contract is too expensive, future contract is too expensive, trade cost is too high, now is not the time, the other team is our mortal enemy, etc.).
In place of these big moves they rely on internal promotions and savvy acquisitions of solid pieces like Gio, and DJ, and Gleyber, and Trevino, and any number of "pretty good" positional players they've rostered. And they end up paying many of these guys pretty good money. And what it has gotten them are pretty good results. As a fan, I'm hoping for more than that in the Yankees pursuits this offseason.
I'm aware.That discussion started with NY making Gil (4 years left) available in the Tucker discussions (they now claim to have not dangled him but they definitely did), so it makes sense in that context, and NY does still have Stroman (ugh) if they traded Gil.
Yeah, that's my bad for being ambiguous about meaning - If the lineup were Judge, Soto, and 7 players actually worth 3 fWAR, things would be great. I use 3 WAR guy as a shorthand for a player whose reasonable positive expectation heading into a season is right around 3 fWAR. So if there were two people arguing about a player, one for one against, neither would have a problem with classifying his potential contribution in the coming year as 3 WAR if all goes well. It also means that if everything doesn't go well, you're getting less than that.I think you are underestimating how rare a player with a consistent 3 WAR floor is. Looking at Fangraphs, I came up with 52 players that have had a 3 WAR season 3 of the last 4 years...
Yes, and that's why I'm hoping they capitalize on what might be similar perceived value in Gil....they are either young players under control who would cost a lot in terms of prospects or have already hit free agency and are expensive.
Yeah, if it is just a difference in money, I kinda wish the Yankees would just blink on it.I wonder what the offer for Bellinger is up to. Sure would like to see that resolved one way or another before some of the other 1B and OF options come off the board.
I think my version of this post is basically that Cashman has either not built a balanced and threatening lineup (outside of the main 1 or 2 guys) and/or has got unlucky with his free agents and trades the last couple of years. Players like DJ, Rizzo, and Donaldson who you expected to add a bit of a different look but didn't. IMO, he has been too slow to the draw to recognize what is working and what isn't.Goodness, you guys know how to make a guy feel welcome! As someone who has a kind of obsession about "knowing/understanding stuff" in general, information and informed opinion is exciting to me. I would frequently check in on your threads over the years when things were going down because of the refined and concise nature of conversation that I've found to be the expectation of this sub forum. Thanks for having me here!
For the record, @Wingack, while I still do enjoy the lower level proceedings as much if not more than the actual team in the Bronx, I let the draft expertise lapse several years ago when setting aside hours of time while raising a family was no longer a net positive experience. But I still love following all the draft/mL stuff and having in-depth discussion about the unbronxed youth, and love that this is a place where I can learn new information or find interesting perspective.
Getting back to the general discussion of this offseason, I wasn't trying to derail the thread with WFAN wishcasting - I actually have no clue who the Yankees should pursue (I only answered because it was like my second post and I couldn't be perceived as a complete idiot right out the gate, though suggesting the possibility of Michael Harris may have inadvertently done just that), and yet I largely trust their talent evaluation/development. What I do have is an aversion to the style that they use in their pursuit of roster building. Logically jon's additional 7-9 WAR across 1B/3B/LF makes the team a powerhouse and one of the favorites for best record in the AL. I just worry that this approach - as a way of building the positional player roster - does not equate to a powerhouse when the regular season ends. I don't think it's a complete coincidence that when they added a second offensive tentpole, while not solving any of the offensive drought/RISP/defensive/focus issues that have plagued them in recent years, this regime went further than they ever had previously.
I'm still a huge believer in Volpe as a Bregman type, I love the potential of Wells and Jasson's bats as 120-130 or higher wRC+ guys, and Jazz being on a 6 fWAR pace in his third of a season with the Yankees has my attention. If these guys reach those marks, the Yankees suddenly have the type of lineup that the Dodgers, Braves, Padres, etc. have rolled out recently where there are 3-4 guys who you have to genuinely navigate. There is a lot of reasoning that is valid at the micro level when explaining why the Yankees did not/do not ever have that kind of lineup around Judge, but the macro view shows last year as the first time in Judge's career that he had a qualified teammate post a wRC+ above 140, and now Soto is gone. The previous high he had ever enjoyed was Giancarlo's 138 in 2021.
Bow down!the unbronxed youth
I'm not.Are we worried that the Max Fried deal isn't official yet?
I was going to mention that also, I was going to say no because Jack Curry has been talking about it as a done deal a lot, but Fried's Instagram has a goodbye to ATL from two days ago but nothing Yankees yet. Holidays, who knows.Are we worried that the Max Fried deal isn't official yet?
Yeah, it just hasn't worked with regards to the position players. They've made an effort to find guys who might be better than generally expected, but they've not made a concerted effort to just go and get guys that already are - especially when their "might be" guys demonstrate that they aren't. What makes me happy is that they haven't taken this approach with the rotation. Rodon hasn't been what they thought they were getting, but as a guy with nasty stuff and a proven history of being able to dominate ML hitters he's still a good get to try and stack on Cole. His and Fried's contracts are almost certain to be vile on the back end, and even though neither was high on my wishlist heading into their respective free agency periods, the fact that the Yankees went out and got two high-end producers to go with their anchor makes me happy. I can always get behind paying for legitimately elite production.I think my version of this post is basically that Cashman has either not built a balanced and threatening lineup (outside of the main 1 or 2 guys) and/or has got unlucky with his free agents and trades the last couple of years. Players like DJ, Rizzo, and Donaldson who you expected to add a bit of a different look but didn't. IMO, he has been too slow to the draw to recognize what is working and what isn't.
Thank you, sir. That one felt good leaving the fingertips.I had a busy day but I have to go back and give a shout out to SC's phrase for Yankee minor leaguers:
Bow down!