View: https://twitter.com/Marino_Pepen/status/1859947057085321590
Soto seeking 12-14 years, $45 per with an opt-out after years 3 and 4. If that's accurate, I think you do that.
Let's take an average of +4% inflation, year over year, with the max at 14 years. If we do that, instead of 14/$630, we'd get a projected future value of $489,782,524 over those years, or just under $35M average per annum (more precisely $34,984,466, and if curious just over $34.5M by median).
Noting that a win above replacement was worth
$5,773,489.71 last season, and also given that I expect the value of a win to increase by $176,216.61 per year? Over the next 14 years, that estimates to be an average value of $7,095,114.29 per win above replacement across the league over the life of those 14 years.
Thus: Soto would need to be worth more than 69.0 WAR over the life of the contract to be financially suggestable. WAR is however you define or calculate it--as WAR the conceptualization of player value here and not the stat in any of its specific forms.