2024-25 Yankees Offseason

Wingack

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I know this seems crazy but I feel like they should let Soto go and take that money and fill 5 spots for what it would cost to pay Soto.

The team showed in the playoffs that they didn't have the depth they should have to win a WS.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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I know this seems crazy but I feel like they should let Soto go and take that money and fill 5 spots for what it would cost to pay Soto.

The team showed in the playoffs that they didn't have the depth they should have to win a WS.
That is crazy.

And they could have better depth if they would either play their kids more in the regular season. I still agree with whoever that posted something along the lines of, "I wonder if in 10 years we will be sitting around saying we can't believe Jasson Dominguez didn't get a single at bat in the World Series."

If they would have given him some reps in left field down the stretch, maybe he could make a difference in the playoffs. Or if Peraza was ever given more than a cup of coffee. Etc., etc., etc.
 

terrynever

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Sign Soto AND play the kids. Peraza and Dominguez have both been slowed by injuries. What they need is some winter ball and an early start in Tampa in January that leads them into spring training. They need to stay healthy and be ready. Give Dominguez a position and keep him there. Same for Peraza.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, the thing about splitting up the money earmarked for Soto to a handful of cheaper FAs is that those $10M-$15M AAV guys end up being duds quite a bit of the time.

I do think that a team with Soto and Judge and Stanton has some positional issues to work out, RF and DH and where does the third one go? Judge to CF? Judge to LF? One of them to 1B? None of those are ideal answers.
 

jon abbey

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Wonder if the Yankees called Boras’ bluff. Surprising that it came together so quickly. Did he need to opt-out to keep the 4-$144M contract?

ESPN article indicated the same deal.
No, if he didn’t opt out Saturday, he’d still have the 4/144. Another crack in Boras’ facade?
 

Tokyo Sox

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No, if he didn’t opt out Saturday, he’d still have the 4/144. Another crack in Boras’ facade?
If I'm understanding the whole process correctly, Cole had a limited window to opt out or not, and the team had a limited window to react to that.

Is it possible/allowed that they'll rework the deal later in the offseason - maybe after other moves are made - to lower the AAV and potentially keep the Yanks under the highest threshold?
 

jon abbey

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If I'm understanding the whole process correctly, Cole had a limited window to opt out or not, and the team had a limited window to react to that.

Is it possible/allowed that they'll rework the deal later in the offseason - maybe after other moves are made - to lower the AAV and potentially keep the Yanks under the highest threshold?
That was what people were guessing was going on, but Cashman made a point this evening of saying they're not actually negotiating, just going back to the old deal, that was more weak spin from Boras. Different reporters are phrasing this slightly differently, this Martino one seems accurate.

View: https://twitter.com/martinonyc/status/1853589161799749693


This reminds me of two previous situations: When Jeter's giant deal expired in 2010 when he was 36:

"The New York Yankees dared Derek Jeter to test the free-agent market. They even told their 36-year-old shortstop that he needed to drink some "reality potion." "

Cashman told him if he thought he could get what he was asking NY for, he should go do that. He was reportedly asking for 4-6 years at $22-$24M AAV, he ended up coming back to NY for 3/51 He was very good in one of those three seasons (2012, 7th in the MVP) and still only had a total of 2.8 bWAR for all three years combined.

And remember this past February when another Boras client, Bryce Harper, started talking about an extension even though he had EIGHT YEARS LEFT on his 13/330 deal. That's the same Bryce Harper who couldn't play the OF at all anymore this season because of his shoulder and who may never play there again? What is that? Boras has really had an awful 12 months or so.

https://www.mlb.com/news/bryce-harper-on-potential-contract-extension-move-to-first-base
 

jon abbey

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Basically what jomboy goes through here, I think:

View: https://twitter.com/Jomboy_/status/1853592641071464906

Cole: I opt out! I’m a free agent unless you opt in to 1 more year at 36 mil.

Cash: nah we’re good. Enjoy free agency.

Cole: but wait….

Cash: ….

Cole: uhhhh

Cash: if you don’t want to do free agency we’re cool acting like you never opted out and just sticking with the contract as is

Cole: that’s perfect because I actually never opted out at all.

Cash: cool cool cool
 

Tokyo Sox

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Cole: I opt out! I’m a free agent unless you opt in to 1 more year at 36 mil.

Cash: nah we’re good. Enjoy free agency.

Cole: but wait….

Cash: ….

Cole: uhhhh

Cash: if you don’t want to do free agency we’re cool acting like you never opted out and just sticking with the contract as is

Cole: that’s perfect because I actually never opted out at all.

Cash: cool cool cool
naruhodo, thanks! Strange happenings; if it's truly a crack in the Boras armor then that's wonderful.
 

Trlicek's Whip

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naruhodo, thanks! Strange happenings; if it's truly a crack in the Boras armor then that's wonderful.
I think Cole seeing how Montgomery and Snell fared as Boras clients last offseason may have been in his mind too. Crickets from the league, each signing late, being behind with getting ready going into 2025, and sucking/being hurt before stabilizing. There could have been an immediate and curt "yeah no I'm not doing that" from Cole to Boras over the past few days.
 

jon abbey

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Kylie McDaniel has Carlos Santana getting just 1/13, would snap him up at that price. He turns 39 in April but is still a solid hitter, a switch-hitter and just won the AL Gold Glove at 1B. Then leave Chisholm at 3B, fill 2B internally (Berti, Peraza, Durbin, Vivas) and your infield is set, pretty inexpensively.
 

jon abbey

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The next personnel deadline is November 19, which is QO decisions (Soto will obviously decline his) as well as when the 40 man has to be set for the rule 5 draft (December 11), which makes trades hard in that period as all non-40 players are frozen.

So if NY was going to make a Verdugo-like deal (a year of a veteran to fill a perceived hole), that could happen in the next two weeks. Josh Naylor for Nestor Cortes, each with one year left? What do you think, @Sad Sam Jones ? Naylor and Cole having to make up would be funny anyway,.

I will bump the 40 man thread, as I found a good listen of possible protects (thank you Mike Axisa).
 

cromulence

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I thoroughly do not understand why you want Naylor. I didn't pay much attention to him this year but it looked like he was on his way to eating himself out of the league in the ALCS.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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I thoroughly do not understand why you want Naylor. I didn't pay much attention to him this year but it looked like he was on his way to eating himself out of the league in the ALCS.
I can't say I've watched the Guardians much beyond the ALCS, but he had the look of an absolute professional hitter with serious pop. Kind of what Rizzo used to be before all the injuries.
 

jon abbey

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I thoroughly do not understand why you want Naylor. I didn't pay much attention to him this year but it looked like he was on his way to eating himself out of the league in the ALCS.
I want Carlos Santana or Christian Walker, just saw that broached and thought it might make sense both ways.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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The next personnel deadline is November 19, which is QO decisions (Soto will obviously decline his) as well as when the 40 man has to be set for the rule 5 draft (December 11), which makes trades hard in that period as all non-40 players are frozen.

So if NY was going to make a Verdugo-like deal (a year of a veteran to fill a perceived hole), that could happen in the next two weeks. Josh Naylor for Nestor Cortes, each with one year left? What do you think, @Sad Sam Jones ? Naylor and Cole having to make up would be funny anyway,.

I will bump the 40 man thread, as I found a good listen of possible protects (thank you Mike Axisa).
Normally, Cleveland will trade a guy who's about to get expensive and doesn't play a real premium position anyway, but I'm not sure that's case with Naylor. I'm guessing we'll hear more about him in the off-season, whether it's talk of a possible extension or trade, but they've been tight-lipped so far. A couple of things make Naylor's case different, one being that he loves playing with his brother Bo who's under team control for another 5 years. I'd be surprised if he wouldn't sign with Cleveland for less than he can get elsewhere. Additionally, he's sort of the mother hen in the clubhouse. Being on such a young team has allowed him to become the vet who takes care of his teammates even though he's not that much of a vet himself. Those who have only seen his emotions on the field might not get that he really isn't a lone-wolf, alpha personality but is more of a creature of comfort, fraternal one-of-the-guys sort.

David Fry's elbow surgery is also going to hurt their depth for a while next season. If they had a deep offense, they could trade Naylor and give Kyle Manzardo the first base job along with a long leash, but as it is now, they're hoping Manzardo breaks out as the DH and fills Fry's vacancy early on. However, since Fry is unlikely to do anything but DH next season, when he does return, they could also find themselves in the "good problems to have" situation of not being able to play all of Naylor, Manzardo & Fry at the same time. It's going to be weird thing with Fry where with normal health he's the ultimate depth piece as a guy who can play 4-5 positions and kill lefties, but for the next year he might just be in the way.
 

jon abbey

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Interesting, thanks! I am personally hoping for your old pal Carlos Santana on a one year deal.
 

jon abbey

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Durbin is Altuve-sized at 5’6”, he has 111 SBs and just 15 CS in 2023/2024 minors plus AFL.
 

jon abbey

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That it's not worth talking about? Bob Nightengale barely knows how to spell his own name, everything he reports is wrong.

As for Bregman, NY needs Soto and a 1B. Jazz can play 3B and should get better there with more experience, they will likely fill 2B in-house (Boone was raving about Caleb Durbin today). I think their plan is Soto and maybe Carlos Santana, and if they can't get Soto, they pivot but I doubt that would involve Bregman.
 

jon abbey

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Luis Gil wins Rookie of the Year, Austin Wells was third.

Yankees to Win AL Rookie of the Year

1951 Gil McDougald
1954 Bob Grim
1957 Tony Kubek
1962 Tom Tresh
1968 Stan Bahnsen
1970 Thurman Munson
1981 Dave Righetti
1996 Derek Jeter
2017 Aaron Judge
2024 Luis Gil
 

mefck

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Any perspectives on the Soto chase? I think I should stay off of Yankee Twitter for the time being/forever.

Not surprising, but the Mets seem to me to be the biggest threat since Soto seems to like NY and the Mets seem to be willing to eclipse any other offer. I don’t think Boston or Toronto have much of a chance.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Any perspectives on the Soto chase? I think I should stay off of Yankee Twitter for the time being/forever.

Not surprising, but the Mets seem to me to be the biggest threat since Soto seems to like NY and the Mets seem to be willing to eclipse any other offer. I don’t think Boston or Toronto have much of a chance.
Nobody really knows what Soto wants, including whether he has a real preference for any team. If he enjoyed his time in NY, maybe that helps the Yankees a hair. If he didn't, he'll be looking for a reason to accept an offer from another team. At this point, the only thing anybody knows* is that if you want a shot at signing him, you have to sign either the top or 2nd top contract of all time in baseball. Just all guessing at this point.

*Based on reports.....
 

Wingack

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Any perspectives on the Soto chase? I think I should stay off of Yankee Twitter for the time being/forever.

Not surprising, but the Mets seem to me to be the biggest threat since Soto seems to like NY and the Mets seem to be willing to eclipse any other offer. I don’t think Boston or Toronto have much of a chance.
I am going against the grain.

I think they should let him go and spend the 50 million a year it will take to keep him on multiple spots around the field that they desperately need help in.
 

mefck

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Nobody really knows what Soto wants, including whether he has a real preference for any team. If he enjoyed his time in NY, maybe that helps the Yankees a hair. If he didn't, he'll be looking for a reason to accept an offer from another team. At this point, the only thing anybody knows* is that if you want a shot at signing him, you have to sign either the top or 2nd top contract of all time in baseball. Just all guessing at this point.

*Based on reports.....
Do not disagree with any of this. The optimistic side of me thinks that all the Heyman reports (direct from Boras) on meetings going well with other teams was meant to drive up NY’s offer.

but, in the end, you are right. We just don’t know anything except that Soto genuinely seemed glad to be here. But we don’t even know that for sure.
 

mefck

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I am going against the grain.

I think they should let him go and spend the 50 million a year it will take to keep him on multiple spots around the field that they desperately need help in.
I can see the argument, but I don’t trust that they would reallocate all of that $$ or be able to chase and sign the players that would bolster the roster (which has plenty of holes). Soto and Judge together can hide a lot of weaknesses in an imperfect team.
 

E5 Yaz

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Do not disagree with any of this. The optimistic side of me thinks that all the Heyman reports (direct from Boras) on meetings going well with other teams was meant to drive up NY’s offer.

but, in the end, you are right. We just don’t know anything except that Soto genuinely seemed glad to be here. But we don’t even know that for sure.
And, of course, there's the meeting with the Dodgers tomorrow
 

Murderer's Crow

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I am going against the grain.

I think they should let him go and spend the 50 million a year it will take to keep him on multiple spots around the field that they desperately need help in.
I've been the lone wolf on this one for awhile amongst my friends. It's not that I don't want Soto and don't slightly prefer we sign him at the crazy cost, it's that I don't think it's the end of the world if he goes. Lot of opportunity to use that money in the coming years. The thing that will hurt the most is that the usual suspects are the field of teams most likely to pony up the money to sign him. Dodgers and Mets...That will make winning a chip all that much harder.
 

Wingack

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I can see the argument, but I don’t trust that they would reallocate all of that $$ or be able to chase and sign the players that would bolster the roster (which has plenty of holes). Soto and Judge together can hide a lot of weaknesses in an imperfect team.
I get that concern. I don't really trust them either. But loading up on one guy like that is not a wise way to build a baseball team that is good for a long time.

I've been the lone wolf on this one for awhile amongst my friends. It's not that I don't want Soto and don't slightly prefer we sign him at the crazy cost, it's that I don't think it's the end of the world if he goes. Lot of opportunity to use that money in the coming years. The thing that will hurt the most is that the usual suspects are the field of teams most likely to pony up the money to sign him. Dodgers and Mets...That will make winning a chip all that much harder.
Yep totally agree with you.
 

jon abbey

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Today is the non-tender deadline, teams need to offer arb-eligible players arb or release them. This may affect three players on NY: Tim Mayza (likely gone), Jon Berti (???) and Trent Grisham. I will guess Mayza is non-tendered, Berti is retained and Grisham is traded.
 

jon abbey

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Also they could trade Jose Trevino, Wells is the starter and there are three other catchers on the 40 man now.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Also they could trade Jose Trevino, Wells is the starter and there are three other catchers on the 40 man now.
And he can't throw runners out. Which seems like a real problem for a backup catcher.

Edit: On the flip side, he's one of our best bat on ball hitters, unfortunately.
 

Brand Name

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View: https://twitter.com/Marino_Pepen/status/1859947057085321590


Soto seeking 12-14 years, $45 per with an opt-out after years 3 and 4. If that's accurate, I think you do that.

Let's take an average of +4% inflation, year over year, with the max at 14 years. If we do that, instead of 14/$630, we'd get a projected future value of $489,782,524 over those years, or just under $35M average per annum (more precisely $34,984,466, and if curious just over $34.5M by median).

Noting that a win above replacement was worth $5,773,489.71 last season, and also given that I expect the value of a win to increase by $176,216.61 per year? Over the next 14 years, that estimates to be an average value of $7,095,114.29 per win above replacement across the league over the life of those 14 years.

Thus: Soto would need to be worth more than 69.0 WAR over the life of the contract to be financially suggestable. WAR is however you define or calculate it--as WAR the conceptualization of player value here and not the stat in any of its specific forms.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Soto seeking 12-14 years, $45 per with an opt-out after years 3 and 4. If that's accurate, I think you do that.

Let's take an average of +4% inflation, year over year, with the max at 14 years. If we do that, instead of 14/$630, we'd get a projected future value of $489,782,524 over those years, or just under $35M average per annum (more precisely $34,984,466, and if curious just over $34.5M by median).

Noting that a win above replacement was worth $5,773,489.71 last season, and also given that I expect the value of a win to increase by $176,216.61 per year? Over the next 14 years, that estimates to be an average value of $7,095,114.29 per win above replacement across the league over the life of those 14 years.

Thus: Soto would need to be worth more than 69.0 WAR over the life of the contract to be financially suggestable. WAR is however you define or calculate it--as WAR the conceptualization of player value here and not the stat in any of its specific forms.
Where's that number come from? Is it just total dollars divided by total WAR, because that would understate how much a WAR is worth on the free market.
 

jon abbey

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WAR is an individual stat and for instance doesn’t factor in how Soto would help (young cocky Dominican) Jasson Dominguez.

Odds are against him living up to this massive deal, but I think odds would be even more against a pu-pu platter of second tier guys in lieu of Soto.
 

Brand Name

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Right, but that includes the subsizied pre-FA players, so it's not a fair representation of how Free Agents are valued.
Thanks, good counter since this isn't a truly free market as much...hm. Thanks for this. I guess you'd remove that portion of the player pool relative to the 870 from there?

It's also fascinatingly sticky because you can always have an otherworldly young player too since that data on the whole I doubt tends to be terribly smooth across seasons.
 

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I like Grish. I'm not sure why he didn't get any time in that big LF, but if it was because of a lack of comfort or skill or whatever, I hope he can fix that. Backup CF is good. Backup utility OF is better.
 

jon abbey

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I like Grish. I'm not sure why he didn't get any time in that big LF, but if it was because of a lack of comfort or skill or whatever, I hope he can fix that. Backup CF is good. Backup utility OF is better.
I think it was simply because he was always the best CF when he was in the lineup, and they mostly played him when one of Stanton/Soto/Judge was out, so the other two would be at RF/DH.

The real issue there, as we discussed a bunch of times, is that if Soto is back (big if, fingers crossed), Judge has got to start playing some LF.
 

jon abbey

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Berti reportedly non-tendered, he would have made around $4M. Too bad, he looked promising at times, but he got hurt three separate times in six months.