2024-25 Yankees Offseason

jon abbey

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Cashman had no interest in bringing back Gleyber (who obviously would have come back cheaply) and he traded Durbin when he probably didn't need to, so I would think he expects/plans to get someone better than those two. That leaves out a bunch of guys who have been mentioned, thankfully.
 

Snatch Catch

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Cashman had no interest in bringing back Gleyber (who obviously would have come back cheaply) and he traded Durbin when he probably didn't need to, so I would think he expects/plans to get someone better than those two. That leaves out a bunch of guys who have been mentioned, thankfully.
I hope you're right, but there's a part of me that can see a Yankees financial calculus that says Gleyber was an untenable situation because of his well-advertised warts. So if he produced 1.7 fWAR with all those headaches for $14.2M last year, getting a player like Brendan Rodgers, who produced 0.8 fWAR in 2024 for just a couple million bucks is actually seen as an upgrade. Less than 1 fWAR difference, no headaches, and a huge $10M savings in the perpetual battle with the Luxury Tax.

Hell, DeJong looks even better through those optics, as he posted the same exact 1.7fWAR as Gleyber last year.

For the record, these ideas all horrify me, but I can see the way they'd be actively supported by Hal/Cashman.
 

jon abbey

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I hope you're right, but there's a part of me that can see a Yankees financial calculus that says Gleyber was an untenable situation because of his well-advertised warts. So if he produced 1.7 fWAR with all those headaches for $14.2M last year, getting a player like Brendan Rodgers, who produced 0.8 fWAR in 2024 for just a couple million bucks is actually seen as an upgrade. Less than 1 fWAR difference, no headaches, and a huge $10M savings in the perpetual battle with the Luxury Tax.

Hell, DeJong looks even better through those optics, as he posted the same exact 1.7fWAR as Gleyber last year.

For the record, these ideas all horrify me, but I can see the way they'd be actively supported by Hal/Cashman.
'Horrify' is pretty strong, but anyway the Durbin part of the statement is crucial too. If Cashman didn't plan to bring in someone later to bump Durbin anyway, I don't think he would have traded him.
 

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That is an interesting way of looking at it. You might be right, especially considering how much extra they’d have to pay because of the penalty.

I’d rather see Cabrera play 3B than pay for that tier of talent. And/or pray that DJ somehow reverses recent trends. But I agree with JA that Cashman probably has a better plan.

edit: responding to SC
 

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By all means, let's bring in shitty players to replace Gleyber because their salary scales down to their value at the point of what Cashman feels like spending on 2b. Yuck.

Nobody is happier to see Gleyber gone than me but if we are doing an infield roulette table with DJ, Cabrera, and one of the probably terrible players, I'm gonna be really annoyed at the start of this season.
 

jon abbey

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By all means, let's bring in shitty players to replace Gleyber because their salary scales down to their value at the point of what Cashman feels like spending on 2b. Yuck.
Can we not rip Cashman for something he didn't actually do yet?
 

Murderer's Crow

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Can we not rip Cashman for something he didn't actually do yet?
I didn't. I ripped the potential logic.

We're currently at the part of the offseason where at least one unsubstantiated rumor has to be released per day about your team and where at least half of those rumors aren't even rumors, they are people talking about possibilities to fill gaps that make it into small soundbites and drive discussion on the internet.

I think @Snatch Catch is right that if we were to acquire one of those players, the logic would be justified based on $:WAR ratios...I just hate it.
 

jon abbey

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Eh let's see what he does, I'd say we're in the part of the offseason where prices could easily come down on guys, both FAs and trades, and so it is smart to hold out and wait for an option you're very happy with to become available. If the game of musical chairs stops and Ha-Seong Kim is still available for 3/30 and Cashman grabs him, we'll all be happy he waited (I think anyway).
 

Snatch Catch

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Yeah, Kim would be the ideal 2nd/3rd tier FA with the potential to fit in perfectly on a big market team looking to compete for a title. It's interesting that there's so little substantiated information out there on him since his opt out. Is the shoulder situation a potential hang up there? It works for the Yankees since they'd actively want him for 2B.

3/30 would be insane value for a guy that put up 4.2 fWAR as a 2B in 2023. I'd be all in!
 

jon abbey

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Is the shoulder situation a potential hang up there? It works for the Yankees since they'd actively want him for 2B.
Also he is going to miss the start of the season, could be out as much as 3-4 months. I'd say for this reason he might fit the Yankees better than any other team, but we'll see.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I wonder if Gleyber's market set a disappointing benchmark for Kim. The more I look at Kim, the more I like him and I would think the only reason he's not on this team is because Cashman might want to shed salary first OR might want a bigger fish.
 

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If Cashman wants him, I hope they show a sense of urgency. As JA said, the Yankees can manage a long recovery with in-house options better than some. Maybe most. I wouldn’t mind a small overpay relative to Kim’s injury-adjusted contract expectations. Positional flexibility is valuable. It probably isn’t realistic to get a 3 or 4 year deal at what could be a below-market rate without opt-outs, but it would be wonderful to sign Kim to a deal that goes beyond Chisholm’s remaining two years of control. Stagger some of these holes to fill if Chisholm leaves.
 

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Kay on YES tonight was kicking around the idea of Dominguez being the leadoff hitter.

Of the options currently on the roster, I like it the best. He works counts, takes walks, switch hitter that can spark the offense either with power or speed. Plus, he would then get the benefit of hitting ahead of Judge, which could help him to get some better pitches to hit.

A lineup of...

OF: Dominguez
OF: Judge
OF: Bellinger
DH: Stanton
3B/2B: Chisholm
1B: Goldschmidt
C: Wells
SS: Volpe
3B/2B: Cabrera/LeMahieu/Peraza/???

...could be a pretty good one.
 

jon abbey

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I do think they could go to spring with the current personnel and they would be as well positioned as anyone in the AL, but also I think there will be 3-4 guys on the opening day roster who are not yet in the organization. I am as eager as anyone to see who those will be (or not be).
 

jon abbey

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Not comparing their skill levels in any way, but Dominguez has one of the most Soto-like attitudes at the plate I have ever seen, that is a young man exceedingly confident in his own abilities.
 

Snatch Catch

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Uninspiring to me. Seems like that kind of Yankee signing where there's a glimmer of impressive production somewhere in the past, but the most probable outcome seems pretty clear - after a wonderful 4.0 fWAR season in 2021, he's produced 3.4 fWAR total over the last 3 years. And with a descending trend, no less: 1.7, 1.4, 0.3.

His fangraphs page has a similar bent to LeMahieu's, looking at it now. Two popup years (3.3 and 4.0 fWAR), and then seven other years of not even reaching 2 WAR.
 

jon abbey

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I am not the one making it but there is a more nuanced case to be made for Polanco:

https://empiresportsmedia.com/new-york-yankees/is-yankees-new-perplexing-infield-free-agent-target-worth-the-gamble

Two factors are that last year he played in SEA, which has passed COL as the park with the biggest overall effect in MLB, COL raises numbers 10% and SEA drops them 11%, plus he had a knee issue that he had offseason surgery on, so between those I'd give him somewhat of a mulligan for 2024.

And also I'm sure few know the pros and cons and potential of Polanco better than James Rowson, current NY hitting coach. Rowson was Polanco's hitting coach in MIN for a few years, including his 4.7 bWAR 2019, where he ended 13th in the MVP voting. It's like when Thibs was happy to get KAT (coincidentally also a NY/MIN thing) who he had previously coached, and in fact I think that previous experience together is a big reason the Knicks gelled this season faster than anyone expected, Thibs knows what KAT can, and maybe more importantly, what he can't, do.

Anyway, I think in general no one has a more realistic idea of what they can potentially draw out of a player than one of their former managers/coaches. If NY did sign Polanco (unlikely and probably being floated to try to move one of the other negotiations forward), I would personally trust Rowson on that and be optimistic.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/polanjo01.shtml

Anyway, Ha-Seong Kim please.
 

jon abbey

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Another reason to think Cashman is not done is that the 40 man is still at 37, and he has not been doing his normal claiming for AAAA depth using the last few 40 man spots, presumably bigger fish to fry.
 

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He was terrible offensively last year but obviously his glove is spectacular. Great contract if his bat recovers a bit (low BABIP for him compared to past seasons) and he'll only be 28 next year. Seems like Pittsburg would be selling low. Maybe if the Yankees paid most of Stroman's contract Pittsburg would take him, but I can't imagine they'd be interested in him otherwise. Not sure what else the Yankees would have to throw in.

I'd love to have Charlie Hayes' kid on this team. Even if his noodle bat only improves back to al dente. If the Yankees can't find enough offense that makes sense, go younger and double down on pitching and defense.

Edit: Whatever the Yankees do this season, they're going to go hard for Tucker next year, right? Hayes isn't a bad building block to lock in for a little while.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Kind of random question, but do you all know of any reason(s) why the Yankees don't appear to be going after Bregman? Obviously we don't know for sure, but they've not been mentioned much compared to the Red Sox.
 

EvilEmpire

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Kind of random question, but do you all know of any reason(s) why the Yankees don't appear to be going after Bregman? Obviously we don't know for sure, but they've not been mentioned much compared to the Red Sox.
We can guess. Mostly the same reasons Boston fans don't want him: he'll be expensive and is in decline. Add to that his power is to LF. His bat plays better in Houston or maybe Boston than NY for half his games.
 

jon abbey

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Kind of random question, but do you all know of any reason(s) why the Yankees don't appear to be going after Bregman? Obviously we don't know for sure, but they've not been mentioned much compared to the Red Sox.
He is a righty who pulls everything, he is a much better fit in HOU or Fenway than NY. This is true for Arenado too, but he’d be much cheaper (and from all reports NY is not interested there either anyway).
 

EvilEmpire

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I hope the overall plan involves going hard after Tucker next year, assuming he doesn't extend, even if that leads them to not spending a whole lot more this off-season.

I do think the Yankees would rather spend big on players who are more of a sure thing and that are great fits, like @Snatch Catch has been preaching.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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We can guess. Mostly the same reasons Boston fans don't want him: he'll be expensive and is in decline. Add to that his power is to LF. His bat plays better in Houston or maybe Boston than NY for half his games.
He is a righty who pulls everything, he is a much better fit in HOU or Fenway than NY. This is true for Arenado too, but he’d be much cheaper (and from all reports NY is not interested there either anyway).
I see. Thanks for the responses!
 

Snatch Catch

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Ke"Bryan Hayes might be available, he is signed through I think 2029 and PIT has other options there. PIT could also use Stroman at the back of their rotation, could be a match here if NY likes Hayes.

View: https://twitter.com/MLBNetwork/status/1876800740028715099/photo/1
Ke"Bryan Hayes owning the largest contract in the history of the Pittsburgh Pirates caught me off guard. Smaller market teams always have those contract factoids that big market fans are taken aback by, and I always associated the Pirates version of this with Jason Kendall.

But man, Pittsburgh really thought they had something with Hayes. I recall the fanfare of his prospect status, and the way he came out white hot, nuclear level production in his ML debut in the pandemic season. If he can be the 2023 version of himself, posting 3.2 fWAR via league average offense and elite defense, he's worth acquiring for sure. If he's anything close to what we saw in 2024 (where he not only was 240th out of 241 players in wRC+, but also saw his defensive value halved) then this is another Aaron Hicks situation where the player simply cannot take up a roster spot on a team looking to compete for a championship.

Assuming the Yankees have vetted the situation and have evidence that 2024 was a fluke and not a trend, I think Hayes is an interesting option. Especially when considering the value of rooting for Charlie's kid - anything he produces gets hit with a fan fun/happiness multiplier (much like Volpe).
 

EvilEmpire

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A quck googling tells me Hayes had back issues last April and then again in May.

And later, a herniated disk in August.

So a lot depends on his medicals. Those injuries seem like enough explanation for his down season, both offensively and defensively. Maybe an open question as to health risk moving forward even if he is fully recovered now.

The Yankees don't need another Don Mattingly situation.
 

Snatch Catch

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The Google feed AI Yankees articles subject of the day appears to be trading for Brendan Donovan, I guess because he couldn't come to an agreement on the longterm extension he was negotiating with the Cardinals.

I don't think he's actually available, but he would be a good get - as compared to guys like Rodgers, DeJong, and Polanco (even if I'd still prefer Kim).
 
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EvilEmpire

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If he was actually available, I'd rather have Donovan than Kim. Younger, three years of control, left handed, and like Kim, he doesn't strike out a lot. Not as good defensively as Kim though. But like you, I don't think he's available. And if he was, the prospect cost would be steep, I think. Kind of a lesser version of a young DJLM.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Kay on YES tonight was kicking around the idea of Dominguez being the leadoff hitter.

Of the options currently on the roster, I like it the best. He works counts, takes walks, switch hitter that can spark the offense either with power or speed. Plus, he would then get the benefit of hitting ahead of Judge, which could help him to get some better pitches to hit.

A lineup of...

OF: Dominguez
OF: Judge
OF: Bellinger
DH: Stanton
3B/2B: Chisholm
1B: Goldschmidt
C: Wells
SS: Volpe
3B/2B: Cabrera/LeMahieu/Peraza/???

...could be a pretty good one.
I went down a silly rabbit hole, looking for teams whose top three hitters were OF. So I ran a Stathead for teams with the most PA from OFers, which is a noisy, at best, way of finding this.

The 1996 Padres had the most ever OF PAs, with Rickey their most common leadoff hitter, Finley most common second, and Gwynn most common third. All but 2 of their leadoff starts were by OFers (those three guys). In total, those three slots had 486 starts, and only 93 by non-OFers.

The 1969 Reds beat this, though. They played 163 games, and only had 28 starts by non-OFers batting in the top three in their lineup. They mostly had Rose leading off, Tolan 2nd and Johnson 3rd.

The 2018 Sox were high-ish here, with Mookie/Benintendi/JDM as the most common 1/2/3 - of course, JDM had some DH mixed in there. I count around 2/3 of the starts in these slots by OFers.

Edit: I was able to use the Fangraphs Splits Leaderboard for teams going back to 2002. They peg 2006 TOR with the most games for OFers in the top three slots, 448 (led by Johnson, Catalanotto, Wells, Rios). Then 2006 SDP (434, led by Roberts, Cameron, Giles) and 2003 TOR (420, led by Johnson, Catalanotto, Wells, Stewart). The highest NYY was 2016 (347 games led by Ellsbury, Gardner, Beltra), and the highest BOS was 2024 (332 games led by Duran, Abreu, O'Neill, Refsnyder).
 
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Snatch Catch

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If he was actually available, I'd rather have Donovan than Kim. Younger, three years of control, left handed, and like Kim, he doesn't strike out a lot. Not as good defensively as Kim though. But like you, I don't think he's available. And if he was, the prospect cost would be steep, I think. Kind of a lesser version of a young DJLM.
I take Donovan over a young LeMahieu all day every day. DJ first got called up for a cup of coffee in 2011, and across the next 5 years in his first roughly 2000 PAs, he posted a grand total of 2.7 fWAR and a 76 wRC+. Donovan posted exactly 2.7 fWAR in the 468 PAs of his rookie year.

LeMahieu's glove was definitely better, but he couldn't hit a lick outside his popup year in 2016 (and he then crashed right back down for two more years before the Yankees signed him in his age 30 season).
 

jon abbey

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Those COL numbers are so hard to calibrate against anywhere else, not only is Coors a hitter's paradise but it is extremely difficult for hitters to adjust to the different movement of the ball everywhere else that there is a big negative effect on COL hitters in road games that I don't think is factored into WAR. The Chris Iannetta chart is so good, I have posted it a bunch of times before, as it covers two separate stints of him on COL as well as three other teams in between, an ideal example.

View: https://twitter.com/mike_petriello/status/1084192801309556738?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1084192801309556738%7Ctwgr%5E3817bbffdee83b1234e2b286a872bb958b9bd25c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mlb.com%2Fnews%2Fdj-lemahieu-leaves-coors-field-for-the-bronx-c302622392
 

Snatch Catch

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Those COL numbers are so hard to calibrate against anywhere else, not only is Coors a hitter's paradise but it is extremely difficult for hitters to adjust to the different movement of the ball everywhere else that there is a big negative effect on COL hitters in road games that I don't think is factored into WAR. The Chris Iannetta chart is so good, I have posted it a bunch of times before, as it covers two separate stints of him on COL as well as three other teams in between, an ideal example.

View: https://twitter.com/mike_petriello/status/1084192801309556738?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1084192801309556738%7Ctwgr%5E3817bbffdee83b1234e2b286a872bb958b9bd25c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mlb.com%2Fnews%2Fdj-lemahieu-leaves-coors-field-for-the-bronx-c302622392
I remember seeing these numbers/studies after the initial signing because they were my beacon of hope. And him putting up that massive popup season in year 1 really felt like they had struck gold. For me the LeMahieu experience in retrospect is pretty straight forward now that we've got multiple seasons on him after leaving COL: he's effectively the same dude he was when he was acquired. Here are his last four full seasons of production prior to the Yankees, in fWAR order:

5.0 (2016)
3.4 (2017)
1.9 (2015)
1.8 (2018)

12.1 total fWAR in 579 Games and 2518 PAs.


Here are his four full seasons of production since joining the Yankees (discounting the pandemic, and excluding last season), in fWAR order:

5.7 (2019)
3.1 (2022)
2.1 (2021)
1.2 (2023)

12.1 total fWAR in 556 Games and 2437 PAs.

Are there factors involved in the what, why, and how he produced what he did? Absolutely. But for me the big picture in the end is, he was what he always was. Good player who had very strong hitterish skills that occasionally produced awesome, anomalous results.
 

jon abbey

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Like some other recent NY contracts, the first deal worked out awesome (and you can’t just throw out his 2020 when he led the AL in OPS, heh), the second deal was pretty disastrous (A-Rod, CC, DJ).
 

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Honestly, I've discounted all of the COVID season production across the board. For example, I completely ignored it when salivating over Soto, both when the Nationals were trading him and when the Yankees were in pursuit last offseason, even though it was his "best" season by rate stats. It was just such a different animal in terms of environment, head space, and sample size that its value in general evaluation is worthless for me personally.

There was just so much extreme deviation from the norm in the player production across those 60 games; the season was built on an excessive volume of outlying production. Luke Voit led the league in HR, and was 2nd in ISO. Dom Smith was a top 10 offensive producer and out SLG'd Voit. Juan Soto led the league with a 202 wRC+ (a figure he's never come close to approaching in his career - even last year) and was effectively equaled in fWAR by Trent Grisham (2.5 to 2.4). LeMahieu, owner of a career K-rate around 15%, dropped his number into the single digits for the only time in his 14 years at the ML level.

Bryan Reynolds (70), Jose Altuve (74), JD Martinez (76), Nolan Arenado (76), and Josh Bell (76) were all in the bottom 15 worst hitters in the league by wRC+. So many players posted the clearly best or worst season - or specific stats (Devers had by far the highest and lowest respective K and BB rates for example) - of their careers that I don't find it holds any representative value.
 

simplicio

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The "qualified" reliever stats from that year are especially funny. Good old Jake Diekman with the 0.42 ERA, with a BB/9 over 5 no less.
 

jon abbey

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Just because it's not so easy to process doesn't mean it didn't happen, but ok. It's just especially funny to pretend it didn't happen when it was one of just two seasons on DJ's original deal and he was fantastic, although admittedly NY would have done well to follow your lead, pretend that his 2020 didn't happen and let him sign elsewhere.
 

jon abbey

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So DJ signed a 2/24 deal for 2019 and 2020 and put up 8.7 bWAR in 195 games, that is a spectacular free agent signing. The second contract with NY, not so much.
 

Snatch Catch

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Just because it's not so easy to process doesn't mean it didn't happen, but ok. It's just especially funny to pretend it didn't happen when it was one of just two seasons on DJ's original deal and he was fantastic, although admittedly NY would have done well to follow your lead, pretend that his 2020 didn't happen and let him sign elsewhere.
I'd like to try and make a distinction in what you laid out above. For me, the pandemic statistics and DJ's second contract are two different issues, even though they did overlap in real time.

I'm not making the argument I often see about the 2020 season that "it didn't happen" or "it doesn't count". I believe the Dodgers were champions, and all the players production counts towards their their career totals. As a statistical analyst in a former life, I just don't believe that there's value in using that production as a representative measure because of the numerous ways the 2020 season was a departure from the most basic baselines of the sport, and the litany of results that were produced that we can now see as anomalous with the benefit of hindsight. So it absolutely happened, I just don't personally ascribe it any meaningful value as an individual point of player assessment, in retrospect.

The second DJ contract is a different issue for me. I've said it before, but I didn't have a problem with the contract at the time - I might not have been celebrating, but as you said, in the 2020 offseason he was sitting on 195 games of nearly 9 WAR in a Yankee uniform, and the rumors had been 5/110-125M. My issue with that second contract is that it feels like another example of the Yankees putting too much expectation on positional player value plays, to the point that they end up losing even when they hit BIG, because they don't have any special skill in knowing when to hold em or fold em. So I'm in no way suggesting that I was calling for them to pass on DJ in the winter of 2020 "because it was so obvious the pandemic stats were nonsense". What I am saying is that it's obvious in retrospect that the pandemic numbers were unreliable representations of player value, LeMahieu on the whole ended being very close to the guy that he was when the Yankees initially signed him, and I simply wish the Yankees were actively good at seeing these things in general. It seems like they often give too much rope/expectation/commitment to their positional player value plays, but especially those that give a good initial ROI.
 
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jon abbey

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I mean, they just let Gleyber and Verdugo and Rizzo leave, I think they're trying to improve their decision making process all the time. They're taking big swings in free agency (Judge, Cole, Rodon, Fried) and prospects (pretty much all their recent first round picks plus international kids like Dominguez, Arias, Mayea, and Wandy Asigen next year) and trades (Soto, Chisholm). I think the job they've done acquiring talent is superb, the issues for years have been internal: how do they deploy that talent optimally?
 

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I'm trying not to get too excited about the staff because of how fickle pitching can be with injuries, setbacks, and general weirdness, but man, it's difficult because the ceiling this group has reminds me of the late 90s/early 00s.
 

jon abbey

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I worry about the rotation depth a bit, but I also expect guys to emerge from the minors closer to ready than we expect (Chase Hampton?). Trading both Cortes and Poteet shows that Cashman is less worried than I am about this.